Rate-cut fever has intensified, cementing a high-conviction market bet that bad economic news is unequivocally good news for asset prices. U.S. equities are soaring, Gold is at fresh highs ($4,135.60), and volatility is complacent ($VIX 17.16). Yet, bond and currency traders are showing caution (10Y Yields steady at 4.12%), and crude oil ($60.17) is pricing in the very economic weakness that's driving the rate-cut speculation. Today, the market's fragile conviction faces the 'Fed Pivot Litmus Test' as New York Fed President Williams, Governor Waller, and the influential dove Governor Miran take the stage. Will they validate the market's dovish dream, or serve a cold dose of reality? Tune in to find out what's next for the diverging global cross-asset picture.
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