What polls can and cannot tell us about the 2024 elections

John Sides and Michael Tesler recently published a piece on Good Authority asking how much trouble Joe Biden is really in for the 2024 election? Our podcast episode kicks off with that big question, then delves deeper into what opinion polls in March can tell us about the November elections. We talk about how much it matters that both candidates are pretty well known, whether the encouraging news on the economy can help Biden, and whether Democrats’ strong performance in the 2022 and 2023 elections gives the party some hope.

We also explore some currents underlying recent trends in public opinion. Is there really a looming racial realignment in American politics? Why don’t consumer sentiment and presidential approval ratings go hand in hand anymore? Is there any change in political independents? What types of issues might favor Democrats and Republicans? And what are good campaign strategies for both sides?

John has written books about the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections. Michael was a co-author on the 2016 book and has also written extensively about elections at 538, the Monkey Cage and elsewhere. Listen for a deep dive on what to expect over the next few months.

Hear our conversation using the audio player below. You can also subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts.