Is This Time Different?

Is the 2025 stock market downturn driven by economic policies, such as tariffs, different from previous market crashes? We're joined by Justin Brown, Greenspring's Director of Investments, to discuss how this time, like every time, is different, but also how drawdowns and volatility are features, not bugs, of markets that reward long-term investors. We outline how investors should respond depending on the preparedness of their portfolio for an unexpected drawdown at an unknown time. We share how we're responding to find a silver lining that may not last long.

Charts discussed:

Full Webinar on Tariffs' Expected Impact on Prices, Costs, and Expected Returns

Subscribe to Greenspring's Chart of the Week

 

Chapters

00:00 Tariffs Are Driving Uncertainty1 – tariffs are designed to increase prices and are done for three reasons: revenue, restriction, and reciprocity

04:01 Is This Time Different? 2, 3 – economic policy as a catalyst is unique, but investment markets' forward-looking response based on expected cash flows and risk is consistent

16:00 How Should We Strategically React? 4 – The type of action depends on whether you, your financial plan, and your portfolio were built in anticipation of a market drawdown

27:49 What Tactical Actions Should We Take? – Now is the time to opportunistically implement your plan through dynamic rebalancing, tax loss harvesting, monitoring for refinance opportunities, and evaluating whether to accelerate Roth conversions and gifting strategies

39:19 Markets Reward Long-Term Investors – capital returns to its rightful owners in bear markets

 

The Best of What We Researched So You Don’t Have To

1 Greenspring’s March 2025 Webinar on Tarrif’s Impact on Prices, Costs, and Expected Returns 

2 Bank Trading Desks Are Minting Money From Trump’s Tariff Chaos (WSJ)

3 Market Returns Through a Century of Recessions (DFA)

4 Lump Sum Investing vs Dollar Cost Averaging (Vanguard)

 

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.