Hoover Daily Report | August 12, 2025

Today, Hoover Institution Director Condoleezza Rice speaks about why continued diplomacy and engagement may generate positive results with the People’s Republic of China. Amit Seru breaks down the dynamics of the US-India relationship in recent history. Joshua D. Rauh, Daniel Heil, and Benjamin Jaros continue to explore issues with scoring the costs of new federal legislation. And Mickey D. Levy previews how the Trump administration’s nominee to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors may fare in Congress.

Hoover Daily Report | August 12, 2025

Episode Transcript

>> Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Hoover Daily Report.
Ideas Advancing Freedom It's Tuesday,August 12, 2025.
Today, Hoover Institution DirectorCondoleezza Rice speaks about why
continued diplomacy and
engagement may generate positive resultswith the People's Republic of China.
Amit Saroo breaks down the dynamics of theUS India relationship in recent history

(00:20):
Joshua D.
Rao, Daniel Heil, and Benjamin Jarroscontinue to explore issues with scoring
the costs of new federal legislation andMickey D.
Levy previews how the Trumpadministration's nominee to
the Federal Reserve Board ofGovernors may fare in Congress.

>> Speaker 2 (00:35):
Chinese tech dominance aims demand new U.S.
effort at diplomacy Ricespeaking with Senior Fellow and
Dewar School ofSustainability Dean Arun Majumdar at last
month's Asian American Scholar Forumhosted at Stanford,
Hoover Institution Director CondoleezzaRice said the US needs to return to
a diplomatic approach when dealing withthe People's Republic of China prc.

(00:59):
She says only through continued dialoguecan the US and China turn their grievances
into interest overlaps thatmove the relationship forward.
Her comments come as the NSF SecureAnalytics Program, a Hoover collaboration,
releases its first report, which showsthat the PRC is now treating technological
development as a battlefield wherethe main adversary is the United States.

>> Speaker 1 (01:24):
There's a reason the US and India aren't better friends.
In the Washington Post, Senior Fellow andHoover Prosperity Program co founder
Amit Saroo writes aboutthe many reasons why India and
the US don't have closer ties.
Since the thaw in the 2000s that came withthe US India Civil Nuclear agreement,
relations have vacillated between India'sconcern about US Pakistan ties and

(01:45):
America's consternation about India'scontinued purchase of Russian military
equipment.
Today, that U.S. concern has now movedto Indian purchases of Russian oil.
Saroo argues too much of the US's approachto India involves coercion rather than
partnership.
India is too valuable to the US interms of the migration of high skilled
talent andits growing size as a trading partner.

(02:08):
For this to be the case,
India needs a partner that respectsits autonomy and invests in its rise.
The US needs an ally that shares itslong term interests and democratic DNA.
Saroo writes, that partner is waitingin New Delhi, but not forever.

>> Speaker 2 (02:24):
Huberson Scorekeeping why Confidence needs a Calibration in their
latest entry on the Liberty Lenssubstack fellows Joshua D.
Rao, Daniel Heil, and Benjamin Jaroscontinue to evaluate what they call
shortcomings in the way the CongressionalBudget Office CBO evaluates the cost
of legislation as well as how it andother entities forecast economic growth.

(02:47):
The CBO has a record of projecting futureeconomic growth below what is actually
realized, as they did after the passageof the Tax Cuts and Jobs act,
partly in the interests ofbeing prudent and conservative.
But the trio says part of the problemis that government forecasters do
not always employ sensitivity analyses,and
their initial reports alsocontain epistemic humility.

(03:10):
But their final published findings do not.
Quote the problem isn't simply concernabout the accuracy of assumptions and
parameters, Arau, Hile and Jaros write.
It's that the scorekeepers, estimates andreports often convey more confidence
in their projections thanthe evidence warrants.
Levy, Trump nominee to Fed Board, willface hurdles in Congress Speaking with

(03:31):
Kathleen Hayes on her substack,visiting fellow Mickey D.
Levy says Stephen Moran,
the Trump administration's nominee to jointhe Federal Reserve's Board of Governors,
will face significant pushback fromCongress because of his unique role in
setting the president'sglobal trade policy.
There are going to be some tough,
tough questions to ask from bothsides of the political aisle.

(03:52):
Republicans as well as Democrats disagreewith Trump's tariffs, levy says.
They also discuss proposals Moranhas made to reform the Fed,
including a provision Moran advanced thatwould allow the president to fire any Fed
governor at any time.

>> Speaker 1 (04:07):
Featured Hoover Podcast Economics Applied Economics Applied is
a must listen podcast from the HooverInstitution that brings cutting edge
economic insights to policymakers,business leaders and engaged citizens.
Hosted by Hoover Senior Fellow andResearch Director Stephen J.
Davis, the podcast translates complexeconomic research into clear,

(04:30):
actionable discussions that shapereal world decision making.

>> Speaker 2 (04:34):
That's your Hoover Daily report for Tuesday, August 12, 2025.
Each weekday we bring you research,analysis and commentary focused on public
policy, national security and the ideasshaping American society and government.
The Hoover Institution atStanford University is grounded in
constitutional principleswith a commitment to

(04:55):
sustaining the safeguards ofthe American way of life.
Thank you for listening.
For links to all the articles andinterviews mentioned today,
visit Hoover.org HDR.