Hoover Daily Report | July 22, 2025

Today, in a discussion with Dan Wang, Stephen Kotkin speaks about his approach to historical research and education, from archives to the halls of power; Martin Giles and Herbert Lin discuss the Stanford Emerging Technology Review’s unique insights into the development and commercial adoption of scientific innovations; and Thomas J. Sargent and George J. Hall analyze the likely fiscal future of the United States in the wake of massive spending to confront the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hoover Daily Report | July 22, 2025

Episode Transcript

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Welcome to the Hoover Daily Report. Ideas Advancing Freedom. It's Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025.

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Today, in a discussion with Dan Wong, Stephen Kotkin speaks about his approach to historical research and education, from archives to the halls of power. Martin Giles and Herbert Lin discuss the Stanford Emerging Technology Review’s unique insights into the development and commercial adoption of scientific innovations; and Thomas J. Sargent and George J. Hall analyze the likely fiscal future of the United States in the wake of massive spending to confront the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

How Historians Work (00:16):
A History Lab Discussion with Dan Wong and Stephen Kotkin. In this wide-ranging Hoover History Lab discussion, Senior Fellow Stephen Kotkin joins Research Fellow Dan Wong to explore the craft of history and its relevance to the present. From his office in Hoover Tower, Kotkin reflects on his efforts to answer the big questions of history, guided by a methodology rooted in rigorous archival research, deliberate engagement with contradictory evidence, and a strategic approach to empathy, in order to grasp the contexts and motivations that have shaped human choices at critical junctures. Wong and Kotkin talk about the enormous demand for historical understanding across society and sectors. Kotkin underscores the historian’s responsibility, in responding to that demand, to reach both scholarly and public audiences, the dangers of using “junk history” to inform policymaking, and the need for emerging scholars to engage thoughtfully with artificial intelligence. The conversation closes with considerations of what historical perspective can show us about achieving sustained global peace and prosperity.
How Emerging Technologies Take Shape. “Policymakers and business leaders need to remember that impactful innovation doesn’t just take place at the frontier,” argues Research Fellow and Stanford Emerging Technology Review (or cedar) Director Herbert Lin in an interview for Defining Ideas. Quote, “For example, when the batteries in electric cars reach their end of useful life, there’s still some capacity left in them that could be useful for other applications. There’s increasingly interest in using secondhand car batteries for storing electricity produced by renewables such as solar power.” Speaking with Policy Fellow Martin Giles, executive director of the Technology Policy Accelerator, Lin discusses the importance of studying “crosscutting themes” across emerging technology areas; how media coverage can distort the true relationship between innovations and real-world applications; and why the 2026 edition of the cedar report will focus on the importance of technical standards as well as the challenges they pose for governments and businesses.
Fiscal Consequences of the US War on COVID A new paper from Senior Fellow Thomas J. Sargent, Nobel laureate in economics, and coauthor George J. Hall examines the long-term implications of the United States’ fiscal “war” on the COVID-19 pandemic and its social effects. The authors compare “prospective budget-feasible paths of US federal taxes, expenditures, interest payments, and debt in the post-COVID period to paths observed after big surges in government expenditures during four 19th and 20th century US wars.” They note that past expenditure surges relative to GDP have brought about “permanent rises in both expenditure to GDP and tax collection to GDP ratios,” and how in the post-COVID period such elevated spending has persisted without a rise in tax collection. Hall and Sargent warn that the consequences of this divergence could be dire. As they write, if this state of affairs becomes permanent, “the consolidated federal government budget constraint portends permanent hikes in US inflation and nominal interest rates on US government interest-bearing bonds.”

California Update (00:33):
He Can Run, for President, But Can He Hide, from His Record?  California Governor Gavin Newsom’s recent visit to early-primary state South Carolina — followed by hints at a special election to re-politicize California’s redistricting process to add more Democratic seats in Congress as a counter to Texas’s legislature doing the same for its GOP seats — seems further evidence of the term-limited governor’s presidential ambitions. Yet as Newsom’s South Carolina experience showed, wherever he journeys, he carries the Golden State as political baggage. For a new California-focused episode of Matters of Policy & Politics, Senior Fellow Lee Oheynian and Distinguished Policy Fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind, join Hoover’s Jonathan Movroydis to discuss where Newsom stands with lofty gubernatorial promises and less than 18 months remaining in his final term. The panelists also consider how Newsom’s record on thorny policy matters such as homelessness, housing affordability, and high-speed rail construction might impact his presidential prospects.

Hashtag TheyLied Lawsuits Alleging False "Title Nine Complaints," Defamation and Malicious Prosecution. In a post at his Volluck Conspiracy blog, Senior Fellow Eugene Volluck dives into the differences between two related yet distinct categories of torts (00:35):
defamation and malicious prosecution. Noting that he is presenting a simplified view of the matter, Volluck defines the former as “making a false statement of fact, that one knew or should have known was false, that isn't privileged, and that tends to cause reputational harm.” Malicious prosecution, on the other hand, revolves around bringing a government action against someone “based on something false.” Volluck explains how these concepts and their nuances are central to recent litigation surrounding Title nine proceedings. As he notes, the status of such proceedings as “quasi-judicial” or not has important implications for the level of immunity privilege granted to statements made in such a proceeding; and whether or not someone who feels wrongfully accused can pursue a defamation case or a malicious prosecution case.

Featured Hoover Podcast (00:38):
Economics Applied  Economics Applied brings cutting-edge economic insights to policymakers, business leaders, and engaged citizens. Hosted by Senior Fellow and Director of Research Steven J. Davis, the podcast translates complex economic research into clear, actionable discussions that shape real-world decision-making. With each episode, Economics Applied explores the forces driving markets, labor dynamics, government policies, and global economies — delivering research-backed analysis that goes beyond headlines, equipping listeners with the knowledge to interpret and anticipate economic change.
That’s your "Hoover Daily Report" for Tuesday, July 22nd, 2025. Each weekday, we bring you research, analysis, and commentary focused on public policy, national security, and the ideas shaping American society and government. The Hoover Institution at Stanford University is grounded in constitutional principles with a commitment to sustaining the safeguards of the American way of life. Thank you for listening . . For links to all the articles and interviews mentioned today, visit hoover.org slash hdr .