Hoover Daily Report | June 25, 2025

Today, Peter Berkowitz offers insights into his popular Stanford seminar on the history and varieties of American conservatism. Amit Seru shines a light on an underappreciated source of potential systemic risk in the US financial system. And Steven J. Davis speaks with Richard Baldwin about recent shocks in US trade policy and their consequences for the American and global economies. 

Hoover Daily Report | June 25, 2025

Episode Transcript

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Welcome to the Hoover Daily Report. . Ideas Advancing Freedom . .  It's  Wednesday, June 25, 2025.

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Today, Peter Berkowitz shares insights into his popular Stanford seminar on the history and varieties of American conservatism. Amit Seroo shines a light on an underappreciated source of potential systemic risk in the US financial system. And Steven J. Davis speaks with Richard Baldwin about recent shocks in US trade policy and their consequences for the American and global economies.

(00:31):
Historical Roots of American Conservatism Explored in Seminar. . A new piece in the Stanford Report profiles the Stanford course "Varieties of Conservatism in America," taught by Senior Fellow Peter Berkowitz. The seminar is offered through the Stanford Civics Initiative, a joint endeavor between the School of Humanities and Sciences and the Hoover Institution to examine the ideas and practices of democratic citizenship through teaching and research. The article features quotations from Berkowitz and from his students illuminating the philosophy of the course and its value for students. “To understand conservatism—and to understand America—you must grasp the interplay of conflicting principles and opinions,” notes Berkowitz. He also shares his hope that the course will make students “more thoughtful” about both conservatism and American politics, which he suggests requires the constructive interplay of both conservative and progressive currents in American life.

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"Valuation Contagion" Is the Private-Credit Risk No One Sees Coming.  Writing at Barron’s, Senior Fellow Amit Seroo argues that the proliferation of private credit exchange traded funds among retail investors has the potential to unleash a “valuation contagion.” Discounts to exchange traded fund prices relative to net asset values, when more than “temporary noise,” can have a variety of unsavory financial effects. Quote, “Limited partners hesitate. Banks reassess collateral values. New fund-raising dries up. Credit lines get pulled. It isn’t a liquidity run; it is a credibility run. And it spreads fast.” Despite the concerns he mentions in the piece, Seru stresses, “Private credit itself isn’t the problem.” Rather, potentially systemic economic peril “comes from wrapping illiquid, model-valued assets in retail-facing structures that promise daily liquidity.” He suggests that regulators should act sooner rather than later “to ensure the trust anchoring these vehicles is earned, not assumed.”

(02:36):
The Great Trade Policy Hack. . In the latest episode of Economics, Applied, Richard Baldwin speaks with Senior Fellow and Director of Research Steven J. Davis about Trumpian trade policy, its underlying political logic, its lack of economic coherence, and its consequences for the American and global economies. Baldwin and Davis also discuss economic and political forces that led to the current protectionist moment in US trade policy, and whether it will endure. Finally, they outline four scenarios for the future international trading system and what it means for US economic fortunes and geopolitical influence. Guest Richard Baldwin is professor of international economics at IMD Business School and editor in chief of VoxEU, an innovative online platform that publishes short, accessible articles grounded in recent research on economics and political economy.

"The Futility of a Timeline" (03:29):
Why the Indo-Pacific’s Fate Must Not Be Tethered to Beijing’s Calendar.  Writing at Hoover’s "Military History in the News" column, Visiting Fellow Miles "Maochun" Yu argues that, when it comes to preparing for the defense of Taiwan against Chinese aggression, there is, quote, “no strategic advantage in guessing whether Beijing will strike in 2027, twenty thirty five, twenty forty nine, or some other year plucked from ceremonial posturing or bureaucratic projections. Such dates are mirages that distract from the real levers of deterrence.” Yu maintains that trying to predict when exactly a Taiwan blockade or invasion will occur is much less important than realizing that Xi Jinping’s desire for “reunification” is fixed and unchanging. In Yu’s view, western nations would be wise to “strengthen alliances, harden defenses, increase military presence, and clarify our will to act,” in order to “deny the Chinese Communist Party both advantage and initiative.” The piece issues a clarion call for embracing allied agency in resisting Chinese aggression and refusing to follow “the CCP’s calendar.”

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Judge grants Preliminary Injunction Against Government’s Suspending Harvard’s Participation in Student Visa Program. . Writing at his column on the Reason site, Senior Fellow Eugene Volluck shares “short excerpts from Judge Allison Burroughs very long decision yesterday in President & Fellows of Harvard College versus U.S. Department of Homeland Security,” a case concerning the Trump administration’s ban of entry into the country for international students at Harvard University. Volluck shows how the court concluded “that Harvard was likely to prevail” on its claims regarding retaliation from the administration for “having rejected demands made by the federal government” back in April. Volluck goes on to note that the “court likewise agreed with Harvard’s argument that the government’s actions were likely unconstitutional discrimination based on Harvard’s viewpoints on other matters as well,” resulting in the preliminary injunction. This means that for the time being, Harvard will be able to continue admitting international students.

Featured Hoover Publication:  "Energy Policies That Harmonize Three Securities" In this essay from Hoover’s Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy, Senior Fellow Aroon Majumdar argues that sustainable energy policies require harmony among three securities (05:44):
(a) economic security, as our economies rely heavily on energy; (b) national security for access to reliable energy supply; and (c) environmental security, driven by imperatives to address air pollution and climate change. This paper offers a framework based on short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives for developing energy policies that address the demands of all three securities.

(06:26):
That’s your Hoover Daily Report for Wednesday, June 25, 2025 .. Each weekday, we bring you research, analysis, and commentary focused on public policy, national security, and the ideas shaping American society and government. The Hoover Institution at Stanford University is grounded in constitutional principles with a commitment to sustaining the safeguards of the American way of life. Thank you for listening . .  For links to all the articles and interviews mentioned today, visit hoover.org slash hdr.