September 15, 2025 • 6 mins
Today, H.R. McMaster and Michael McFaul each offer their expert analyses of Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland, as well as their perspectives on an effective American and NATO policy response; Niall Ferguson pushes back on the claim that America is currently sliding into dictatorship; and a new publication from Hoover’s Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy separates Social Security myths from facts.
Hoover Daily Report | September 15, 2025
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Episode Transcript
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>> Female (00:00):
Welcome to the Hoover Daily Report.
Ideas Advancing Freedom It's Monday,September 15, 2025.
>> Male (00:07):
Today, H.R. mcMaster and Michael McFaul each offer their expert analyses of
Russia's recent drone incursioninto Poland, as well as their
perspectives on an effective American andNATO policy response.
Neil Ferguson pushes back on the claimthat America is currently sliding
into dictatorship and a new publicationfrom Hoover's Tenenbaum Program for
(00:28):
Fact Based Policy separatesSocial Security Myths from Facts.
Reminder Hoover's Thomas Sowellessay Contest and
Creator competition closetonight at 11:59pm Pacific Time.
Learn more andenter@hoover.org Russia's attack on.
>> Female (00:44):
Poland, probing on NATO's eastern frontier, and the need for
Strong action Writing at his substackHistory We don't know, Senior Fellow H.R.
mcMaster analyzes the implications of 19Russian drones violating Polish airspace
on September 10th.
He argues as NATO leaders formulatea response to Putin's latest act of
aggression against Poland, it shouldconsider the drone incursion in context
(01:08):
of the long history of Russian probingin Eastern Europe that predated
the massive re invasion ofUkraine in February of 2022.
McMaster cites numerous examples ofRussian aggression in Europe in recent
decades, including cyberattacks and
interference with maritimenavigation in international waters.
McMaster concludes thatincreasing the costs of Russian
(01:30):
attacks via tightened sanctions andadditional support for
Ukraine will be the only way to deterworse aggression in the future.
>> Male (01:37):
Putin is making Trump look weak Also responding to the recent Russian
drone incursion into Poland, Senior fellowMichael McFaul argues that the incident
constitutes a serious escalation ofconflict between Russia and NATO NATO.
He suggests the Russian dictator wastesting the alliance of democracies to see
if NATO countries wouldrespond in a unified manner.
(01:57):
In McFaul's view, the Trumpadministration's response failed to
address the severity of the Russian attackor to sufficiently convey NATO unity.
The former US Ambassador to Russiaargues that with current policy,
Trump is not deterring Putin, but could doso with sanctions on the shadow fleet that
covertly exports Russian oil and and withgreater US Military assistance to Ukraine.
(02:20):
In his view, these measures, quote,
could reverse Putin's perceptionof American weakness.
>> Female (02:25):
America today is far from a dictatorship.
In his column at the Times, UK SeniorFellow Neil Ferguson writes that the,
quote, killing of Charlie Kirk onWednesday unquestionably turns the heat up
further under American democracy.
Ferguson notes the prevalenceof claims of rising fascism and
authoritarianism in the US and how thosehave fostered an atmosphere of fear and
(02:47):
mistrust across party lines.
But after reviewing the bloodyhistory of 20th century fascism.
The historian insists, quote,the United States today is
a very long way from Italy in 1927 orGermany in 1938.
While acknowledging the need to remainvigilant to real expansions of government
power at the expense of civil liberties,Ferguson concludes, many in the 2000 and
(03:12):
20s are emotionally over invested in theidea of an American descent into fascism
and do not adequately appreciatethe enduring American love.
>> Male (03:20):
Of liberty Myths and
Facts About Social Security A new factsheet from Hoover's Tenenbaum Program for
Fact Based Policy examines popularmyths about Social Security and
outlines key information that Americansshould know about the program.
For example, many believe thatSocial Security pays retirees back using
the funds they paid intothe program over their career.
(03:40):
In fact, workers payroll taxes are spentright away on today's retirees,
and the money received each year is nowless than the required benefits paid to
retirees.
The fact sheet also notes thatunless the program is reformed soon,
beginning in 2033,benefits may be cut by about 23% or
payroll taxes would need to be raisedto maintain current benefit levels.
(04:03):
The fact sheet also highlights how SocialSecurity recipients must have worked and
paid taxes for 40 financialquarters to qualify for benefits.
>> Female (04:11):
Open the Budget Scoring Black Box Quote There is no defensible
reason why the Joint Committee on Taxationand the Congressional Budget Office,
the two institutions that effectivelyreferee Washington's budget debates,
keep their economic models under lock andkey, argue senior fellow Joshua D.
Rao and Policy fellow Jonathan Hartleyin a new essay for Civitas Outlook.
(04:34):
Quote, the estimates of these agenciesshape legislation that governs our lives,
yet the underlyingassumptions remain secret.
Rao and Hartley argue that this lack oftransparency undermines public trust in
America's budgetary scorekeepinginstitutions which influence trillion
dollar decisions becausemodels simplify reality.
(04:54):
Quote Budget scoring will never beperfect, but perfection is not the goal.
The goal is trust.
The piece makes the case that publishingscoring models documenting key assumptions
and inviting public scrutiny of budgetforecasts would increase trust and
elevate the conversation around thenecessary tradeoffs in policy formulation.
>> Male (05:16):
Featured from the Hoover Library and
Archives Conservatism Digital Collectionthe Hoover Institution Library and
Archives offers a digitizedcollection of more than
300 items from the historyof conservatism.
The collection features manyposters from conservative and
anti communist political groupsin Europe and the United States.
Additionally, numerousepisodes of William F.
(05:37):
Buckley Jr's televisionprogram Firing Line,
dealing with American conservatismare included in this collection.
>> Female (05:43):
That's your Hoover Daily report for Monday, September 15, 2025.
Each weekday we bring you research,analysis and commentary focused on public
policy, national security, and the ideasshaping American society and government.
The Hoover Institution at StanfordUniversity is grounded in constitutional
principles with a commitment tosustaining the safeguards of the American
(06:05):
way of life.
Thank you for listening.
For links to all the articles andinterviews mentioned today,
visit Hoover.org HDR.
Welcome to the Hoover Daily Report.
Ideas Advancing Freedom It's Monday,September 15, 2025.
>> Male (00:07):
Today, H.R. mcMaster and Michael McFaul each offer their expert analyses of
Russia's recent drone incursioninto Poland, as well as their
perspectives on an effective American andNATO policy response.
Neil Ferguson pushes back on the claimthat America is currently sliding
into dictatorship and a new publicationfrom Hoover's Tenenbaum Program for
(00:28):
Fact Based Policy separatesSocial Security Myths from Facts.
Reminder Hoover's Thomas Sowellessay Contest and
Creator competition closetonight at 11:59pm Pacific Time.
Learn more andenter@hoover.org Russia's attack on.
>> Female (00:44):
Poland, probing on NATO's eastern frontier, and the need for
Strong action Writing at his substackHistory We don't know, Senior Fellow H.R.
mcMaster analyzes the implications of 19Russian drones violating Polish airspace
on September 10th.
He argues as NATO leaders formulatea response to Putin's latest act of
aggression against Poland, it shouldconsider the drone incursion in context
(01:08):
of the long history of Russian probingin Eastern Europe that predated
the massive re invasion ofUkraine in February of 2022.
McMaster cites numerous examples ofRussian aggression in Europe in recent
decades, including cyberattacks and
interference with maritimenavigation in international waters.
McMaster concludes thatincreasing the costs of Russian
(01:30):
attacks via tightened sanctions andadditional support for
Ukraine will be the only way to deterworse aggression in the future.
>> Male (01:37):
Putin is making Trump look weak Also responding to the recent Russian
drone incursion into Poland, Senior fellowMichael McFaul argues that the incident
constitutes a serious escalation ofconflict between Russia and NATO NATO.
He suggests the Russian dictator wastesting the alliance of democracies to see
if NATO countries wouldrespond in a unified manner.
(01:57):
In McFaul's view, the Trumpadministration's response failed to
address the severity of the Russian attackor to sufficiently convey NATO unity.
The former US Ambassador to Russiaargues that with current policy,
Trump is not deterring Putin, but could doso with sanctions on the shadow fleet that
covertly exports Russian oil and and withgreater US Military assistance to Ukraine.
(02:20):
In his view, these measures, quote,
could reverse Putin's perceptionof American weakness.
>> Female (02:25):
America today is far from a dictatorship.
In his column at the Times, UK SeniorFellow Neil Ferguson writes that the,
quote, killing of Charlie Kirk onWednesday unquestionably turns the heat up
further under American democracy.
Ferguson notes the prevalenceof claims of rising fascism and
authoritarianism in the US and how thosehave fostered an atmosphere of fear and
(02:47):
mistrust across party lines.
But after reviewing the bloodyhistory of 20th century fascism.
The historian insists, quote,the United States today is
a very long way from Italy in 1927 orGermany in 1938.
While acknowledging the need to remainvigilant to real expansions of government
power at the expense of civil liberties,Ferguson concludes, many in the 2000 and
(03:12):
20s are emotionally over invested in theidea of an American descent into fascism
and do not adequately appreciatethe enduring American love.
>> Male (03:20):
Of liberty Myths and
Facts About Social Security A new factsheet from Hoover's Tenenbaum Program for
Fact Based Policy examines popularmyths about Social Security and
outlines key information that Americansshould know about the program.
For example, many believe thatSocial Security pays retirees back using
the funds they paid intothe program over their career.
(03:40):
In fact, workers payroll taxes are spentright away on today's retirees,
and the money received each year is nowless than the required benefits paid to
retirees.
The fact sheet also notes thatunless the program is reformed soon,
beginning in 2033,benefits may be cut by about 23% or
payroll taxes would need to be raisedto maintain current benefit levels.
(04:03):
The fact sheet also highlights how SocialSecurity recipients must have worked and
paid taxes for 40 financialquarters to qualify for benefits.
>> Female (04:11):
Open the Budget Scoring Black Box Quote There is no defensible
reason why the Joint Committee on Taxationand the Congressional Budget Office,
the two institutions that effectivelyreferee Washington's budget debates,
keep their economic models under lock andkey, argue senior fellow Joshua D.
Rao and Policy fellow Jonathan Hartleyin a new essay for Civitas Outlook.
(04:34):
Quote, the estimates of these agenciesshape legislation that governs our lives,
yet the underlyingassumptions remain secret.
Rao and Hartley argue that this lack oftransparency undermines public trust in
America's budgetary scorekeepinginstitutions which influence trillion
dollar decisions becausemodels simplify reality.
(04:54):
Quote Budget scoring will never beperfect, but perfection is not the goal.
The goal is trust.
The piece makes the case that publishingscoring models documenting key assumptions
and inviting public scrutiny of budgetforecasts would increase trust and
elevate the conversation around thenecessary tradeoffs in policy formulation.
>> Male (05:16):
Featured from the Hoover Library and
Archives Conservatism Digital Collectionthe Hoover Institution Library and
Archives offers a digitizedcollection of more than
300 items from the historyof conservatism.
The collection features manyposters from conservative and
anti communist political groupsin Europe and the United States.
Additionally, numerousepisodes of William F.
(05:37):
Buckley Jr's televisionprogram Firing Line,
dealing with American conservatismare included in this collection.
>> Female (05:43):
That's your Hoover Daily report for Monday, September 15, 2025.
Each weekday we bring you research,analysis and commentary focused on public
policy, national security, and the ideasshaping American society and government.
The Hoover Institution at StanfordUniversity is grounded in constitutional
principles with a commitment tosustaining the safeguards of the American
(06:05):
way of life.
Thank you for listening.
For links to all the articles andinterviews mentioned today,
visit Hoover.org HDR.
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