September 19, 2024 • 29 mins
Welcome to the Jolly Good Fellow podcast! In this episode, we delve into the historic clash that's set to unfold as USC visits Michigan's Big House for only the second time. These two storied programs haven't met since 2007, and with USC holding a slight edge in their all-time matchups, it's time for Michigan to break the streak.
We explore the rich history between these teams, dating back to their first meeting in 1948, and discuss the impact of conference expansion on college football rivalries. The excitement of seeing USC in the Big House is palpable, and we preview other big games like Tennessee traveling to Oklahoma.
Our focus then shifts to a deep dive into Michigan's current season, including the quarterback situation, the team's strengths and weaknesses, and what it will take to beat USC. We analyze the challenges posed by Lincoln Riley's potent offense and USC's improved defense under new coordinator Danton Lin.
Join us as we break down the "Good Wolverine, Bad Wolverine" aspects of Michigan's game plan, discuss key players like Alex Orji, and ponder whether the Wolverines can rise to the occasion. Will Michigan's defense step up? Can the offense find its rhythm? Tune in for all this and more.
Don't forget to hit that subscribe button and give us a thumbs up. Go Blue!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Trojan horse arrives. Midwest gridiron welcomes West. History unfolds.
Welcome to the Jolly Good Fellow podcast. Yes, I did start with a haiku.
Don't ever say we're not cultured here at the Jolly Good Fellow podcast.
If you haven't already, please hit that subscribe button. I appreciate you listening.
We're here to talk about the history that will unfold on Saturday as USC comes
(00:26):
to the big house for only the second time in history to take on your Michigan Wolverines.
These teams are no strangers to each other, although they haven't met since 2007.
They have met 10 times in history, most of them being in the Rose Bowl.
USC does hold the all-time edge against Michigan, 6-4.
It's rare for a team to beat Michigan more than the other way around.
(00:50):
But USC has also won three straight. So it's time for Michigan to break that streak.
On a brighter note, the first meeting between these teams was way back in 1948.
Michigan gave USC a 49-0 beatdown to remember.
Of course, if we didn't bring up the ancient past, it wouldn't be a Michigan podcast.
(01:12):
We love to talk about the past here, obviously.
This is one of the positives with expansion, and expansion hasn't been very popular.
Everyone I talked to, and I felt the same way, you're sad to see the Pac-10
or 12 or whatever number they were up to at the end there go by the wayside.
You're sad to see the end to some of the regional rivalries.
(01:33):
We play some of them less often.
But seeing big games like this, this would normally be a Michigan-Rutgers or
a Michigan-Maryland type game.
No offense to those schools, although there's no love lost with Rutgers.
I think playing them all those years in the Big East, we're ready to take a little break from them.
And I feel bad for Maryland being lumped in with them all the time.
(01:56):
They've been a little bit better.
But these games are what you live for as a college football fan.
And seeing USC come to the big house for the second time ever is going to be
amazing. You have another Another big game, Tennessee is going to travel to Oklahoma.
Another game that you just, you're very rare to see that.
You might get three or four of those all out of conference all season.
(02:19):
But now we're going to get much more of that throughout the season.
It's really going to lead to a better experience for the fans.
And so I can't say I don't sometimes wish for the day before the playoffs and
before the expansion in college football how it used to be.
But that being said, we have to take the good with the bad and at least enjoy
the good because this matchup, it's going to be in that 330 SEC slot where you're
(02:42):
used to seeing those SEC Titans go up against each other.
You hear the CBS sports chime, whatever you want to call that play,
the little melody they have.
It just makes you think college football, right? And I grew up a Big Ten guy,
obviously a Michigan guy.
There's something special about those SEC games, partly because of the network
it was on and the time slot and the way they presented it. But CBS,
(03:05):
you have to be happy to be getting a matchup like USC coming to Michigan.
It's going to be a must-watch TV. USC is favored in this game.
Five and a half was the last I've seen.
And Michigan is an underdog here. Michigan is an underdog. I think that's about right.
I'm kind of surprised when I saw the line. The first line I saw was six.
(03:25):
I'm surprised it was a little bit higher the way Michigan's been playing.
And if you're someone that's watched these games, you can tell some things aren't quite right.
So it'll be interesting to see how they show up. I think we're all hoping for
a great showing and that they've figured some things out.
To preview this game, I'm going to do what I call good Wolverine, bad Wolverine.
(03:46):
It's a bad take on good cop, bad cop, but I'm going to point out some of the
good things, the reasons for optimism if you're a Michigan fan,
and then some of the things that might not go our way on the bad side of things.
Start with the good, and I'm going to steal the title of the first Star Wars movie.
There's a new hope that new hope
(04:09):
is Alex Orji he was presumed to be the starter heading
into the season lore has it that he lost the
job two weeks before and shown
more on the radio show this past week said they have an offense built for him
and excited to see it I've talked about this on previous pods I can't imagine
(04:30):
a world where they went through all of spring the coach is obviously in summer
without the players planning,
then fall camp, not with, if you thought this guy was going to be a starter,
you have to have package and plays and a strategy and a scheme that's going
to work for his strengths,
his running ability and emphasize that.
So hearing Sheryl Moore's quote, I really hope that's the case and it gets me excited.
(04:54):
I'm a little doubtful because we haven't seen it, right? I mean,
we've seen him come in and spot duty. We saw him come in and end the game at Arkansas State.
Going through those plays, there were some running concepts.
The problem is, you know, this isn't like, hey, we're going to throw in one or two wrinkles.
This is, this needs to be a rich rod, spread and shred type game plan where
(05:15):
everything's revolving around this new strategy for it to really work, right?
We're talking about a lot of read option, a lot of play action,
a lot of RPOs, a lot of design QB runs.
All of the tricks we saw with Denard, take a few steps forward and then pull
up and rocket a deep pass to a wide open receiver.
(05:36):
All of those things that you can do and take advantage of the safeties playing
up, trying to stop the run, which that's what they've been doing to us anyways,
even with Davis Warren teams aren't respecting the ability to throw deep.
And I wouldn't blame them when you're running the dink raid and you're not going
to ever throw deep teams are going to cheat up.
And so that's why we're getting all these short passes. You can't get any yards after catch.
(06:00):
I'm hopeful that Orgy comes in. We're able to run the ball with him.
Obviously, that helps Mullings out, who just was sensational in the past game.
We're so excited what he can do.
Hopefully, we can get Donovan Edwards going.
And then from there, you do hope, we saw it at the end of Arkansas State,
Fred Moore running 10 yards clear of the nearest quarterback.
(06:23):
Let's hit that pass instead of overthrowing him. after re-watching it looks
like maybe he pulled up a little bit but regardless,
if they're going to pull up we have to take shots deep even if we don't complete
them we got to make the defense play honest and there's a hope that if he comes out and,
maybe the coaches made the wrong decision when they put Davis Warren and I do want to clarify,
(06:45):
Davis Warren made some good throws he's not the only problem on this team he
was playing okay But you hope that they made the wrong decision and Orgy comes
in and really just can take this job and seize it and turn this from an offense that,
quite frankly, is hard to watch into an offense that's fun to watch.
So we're excited for that. There's definitely hope there. I also think this team has another gear.
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If they can get it together and get that motivation and play as a team and get
some complimentary football and get some things moving in the right direction,
and this team reminds me of like an old podcast.
Let's say like an old baseball pitcher, right? Someone that had an incredible
career, always had the best fastball, but near the end of the year,
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maybe they hung on a little too long.
They lose a few miles off their fastball and they start just getting peppered
and batters are teeing off on them.
And it's like, well, you're still good enough to be in the rotation,
but you aren't quite what you once were.
Obviously, we were so amazing last year. We've lost so much from that team,
but we still have a lot. We still have a lot of tools.
And so can this team be like that pitcher that maybe instead of leaning on your
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fastball, some of your off-speed stuff gets a little bit better.
And some of, you know, you become that wily veteran that knows some tricks of
the trade to still get batters out and still be successful.
I think this team can come together. You get that defense playing really well.
That's really where it's going to start.
Get them to get off the field on third downs. You get this offense moving the
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ball. The offensive line remembers, hey, we can maul some people, and they start gelling.
You get some, you know, Donovan Edwards maybe breaks a play.
Kalo Mullings gets rolling. I think this team has the talent.
I've talked about it so much.
I mentioned the four projected first-round NFL picks so much.
(08:40):
Your ears have to be bleeding. It's rare to have as much talent as we have on this team.
We can compete with anybody. But we have to be able to have it all come together.
And I've been thinking about like, what word really am I trying to say when
I'm talking about being more than the sum of your parts?
And I think I finally found it, that this team needs synergy.
(09:00):
I'm big on the business buzzwords, but synergy is defined as the interaction
or cooperation of two or more organizations,
substances, or other agents to produce a combined effect greater than the sum of their parts.
That's what Michigan needs. We need to come together as a team,
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be cohesive, get some of that synergy,
play complementary football where the offense is possessing the ball.
Winning field position battles, picking up a few explosives,
and then the defense can get some time to rest,
but then they also have to pick up their game and get off the field on third
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down, which against Texas, I mean, that was really what killed us.
We looked great on first and second down. Quinn Ewers would step up in the pocket,
rocket a 20-yard pass downfield.
All of a sudden, that's complete.
And then you even saw that against Arkansas State in the first drive.
Teams are able to convert on third down.
We've got to fix that. So you hope to see that. And then final piece of good
(10:05):
news or good Wolverine is, is USC all that it appears?
They had that big showcase game against LSU. They won.
All of a sudden they're rocketing up everyone's top
25 lists and look it's
a good win you meet a team like LSU anytime much less
the first weekend you feel good about it the wins
(10:29):
not against LSU isn't aging so well LSU hasn't
looked super great LSU's defense gave up
21 points to Nichols State for an
SEC team that's not what you want to see suggests their defense
maybe isn't elite usc won
that game against lsu 27 to 20 and then lsu just last week many of you watched
(10:50):
this it was a the refs really blew it at the end in my opinion but they they
won 36 to 33 against that other usc south carolina and gave up almost 400 yards to south carolina.
That LSU team held USC, as I mentioned, to 27 points. They had USC go three of nine on third down.
(11:12):
They really made USC one-dimensional. They were only able to throw the ball.
There was no running game to speak of.
One of the keys for this team, like I mentioned, on offense and defense,
you've got to win third downs.
The type of team we want to be,
the type of team we've been the last three years, on offense we move the chain
(11:32):
on third downs reliably on defense we get off the field on third downs reliably
now as i mentioned earlier that really cost us against texas,
i also want to point out usc's defense we talked about lsu's defense and maybe
what that means is like is usc's offense that great they have miller moss on
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defense usc gave up 421 yards to lsu I believe they're giving, and LSU and Utah State,
who the other team, USC, played, they're giving up 4.3 yards to carry and running the football.
Neither of those teams are running juggernauts. So you think Michigan does have
a path here to move the ball on the ground, especially after what we talked
(12:17):
about with Alex Orji taking over.
So there's some reasons to be excited. There's some reasons why you can see
Michigan could win this game.
On to bad Wolverine. Things that you might want to worry about.
To blitz or not to blitz? That is the question.
If you're a Michigan fan, you've heard so much about Link Martindale and his
(12:37):
system and the blitzing, and I'm hearing so much on both sides of the debate, all sorts of things.
You know, Joel Klatt, who I love his show, was talking about it.
I saw another guy in a message board who made a good point because the big news
is like Michigan was 48th in blitzing last year under Minter.
(12:57):
Now under Wink, we're fourth.
But then they compared, yeah, we didn't play anyone for most of last year.
So it included a lot of games where we weren't blitzing at all.
Against Alabama, we actually blitzed. in the Rose Bowl, we actually blitzed
at a similar rate to Wink did against Texas.
So it's like, is there even really a difference? Because Minter,
(13:18):
when it counted against Alabama, picked up his blitz rate.
And you're hearing just so much about the blitzing.
And whether we blitz or not, I don't think that really is the question,
right? And don't get me wrong, the scheme matters.
Wink, of course, we've heard it time and time again. He's the originator of the amoeba system.
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But the problem with this team wasn't so much like he blitzed.
It was the weird stuff he was doing, right? Mason Graham taking him out of the
middle and putting him at defensive end.
We're running all of this really complex NFL stuff, and it looks really great.
You're watching it on screen.
(14:00):
You got this third and 15, and you see, wow, what's this? Everyone's standing
up, and they're in weird positions.
Wow, the offense must be really confused. used, but it just doesn't work.
And I don't know if it doesn't work because it's not a good play or because
the players are college guys and you're asking them to do these crazy things.
And really what I think it comes down to is this. You got to tackle,
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which we've struggled with.
Not a good recipe for success against this USC team. Okay, we do got to get
pressure with that defensive line.
Even if we only go with four, we should be able to get there.
And you got to put your players in positions to succeed. And that.
Very first, or not the first touchdown, but the touchdown against Fresno State
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where we did the all-out blitz.
And there was the coverage break where the receiver caught it,
got the nickel, turned around, took it in for a touchdown.
We shouldn't have had a safety over the top, but there's no reason to blitz that way.
And so can Wink put us in a position to see success?
And here's really the problem.
(15:07):
He's going against Lincoln Riley. That's really the problem. here, right?
And this is why this is in the bad section. Every offense Lincoln Riley,
virtually every offense he's ever run has been in the top three in SP plus rankings, right?
So his offenses are just incredible.
I don't need to tell you about all the Heismans, all the first round NFL quarterback picks.
(15:30):
He is one of the all-time great offensive minds in football, NFL, or college period.
The guy can flat out move the football. And so Wink needs to be on that level
and compete at that level.
He has to have this team's defense looking like last year's defense to keep them in the game.
I will also point out, right, one of the things that maybe is a good piece on
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this for Michigan is Michigan's opponents are passing at 60.3%,
which is good for 127th in the country,
meaning teams are getting very, very pass happy against us, which makes sense.
We got that great interior defensive line.
Wink and really any elite defensive coordinator, when you can make a team one-dimensional,
(16:16):
which USC is going to want to be one-dimensional, we should be able to use that
to our advantage and get some stops.
I talked about LSU keeping USC to three and nine on third down.
I think they were 0 for one on fourth down.
Get them in these situations where it's third and long, or even third and short,
they're going to struggle to run the ball. Get them off the field.
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Make it difficult for them to convert.
Keep the explosives down. Recipe for success.
Another not so great thing in the bad Wolverine section, explosive skill players, right?
Michigan's offense has seen a lack of explosiveness.
USC is going to have the edge, especially in the receiving area in terms of explosives.
(17:02):
Zachariah Branch, you watch this guy return kicks. I've said in the past,
like Samaj Morgan jumps off the screen.
Zachariah Branch definitely jumps off the screen. He is fun to watch.
It's going to be, I don't want to say fun because it's going to be nerve wracking
to watch him go against this Michigan team.
But when the ball is in his hands, he's,
he's a threat to take it to the house every single time. And so going back to
(17:25):
point number one, blitzing and what scheme is Wink running,
Wink's going to have to put these guys in positions to succeed because USC has
guys that start above Branch, right?
They have other guys, and obviously they're playing different positions,
and Branch is the guy you try to get the ball to.
But they have a lot of receiving talent that can break this game wide open.
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So we're going to have to keep them in check and really limit the explosives
Explosives, and not to go back to last year again, but what have we,
not even just last year, last three years, how have we handled Ohio State's
elite receiving talent?
We need to go back to that style where, hey, you're going to get your plays,
but we're going to limit the explosives, make you drive the field,
(18:08):
and hope to get you off the field on third downs.
That's really what they need to do, but these receivers get loose and start
breaking tackles, and Michigan's had trouble tackling in the open field,
it's going to be a problem.
And then the final thing that I think is a reason for maybe pessimism heading
into this game, if you're a Michigan fan, is logic.
(18:33):
Logic. And what I mean by that, and I'll start,
but back when Brady Hoke was the coach, they were playing Penn State,
and most of you know this, there was a game where he ran 36 times for a total of 36 yards.
For those keeping track at home, that is horrific.
(18:53):
And to run the ball 36 times and to keep banging your head against the wall,
and you only have 36 yards to show for it.
It was one of those where you just leave that game. Not only is it hard to watch,
but afterwards, it's like, this doesn't even make sense, right?
How can you put your trust in that coaching staff moving forward?
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Even if they get the best players in the country, when you make a tactical decision
like that, it's hard to see the path forward.
And with this team, there have been so many head scratchers that it's hard not
to see this team underperforming,
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and it's almost hard to see any plans they make playing out right.
Now, I will say that Brady Hope team, team.
Could surprise you, too. We
had the game where we lost on the two-point conversion against Ohio State.
Huge underdogs. Devin Gardner played amazing. They came out with a different game plan.
But sometimes these guys can surprise you. But when so many things don't make
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sense, so the late quarterback switch.
The two unexpected starters that weren't even in the top two favorites to win
the job, they come from behind.
And, you know, Sadam Gadis over Greg Crippen,
Link over Gentry, like, why aren't, and then not only that, but the whole, the line as a whole,
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when you have the pedigree and the development that Sean Moore has had with
these guys, for them to look just so lost, it doesn't make a lot of sense, right?
You should, we have the talent there from a recruiting standpoint.
They've been in the program. They have the experience. They should have the
development. Why isn't that working?
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The defense, we have all this returning talent, but yet we've looked lackluster at times.
The offensive scheme, not able to get Donovan Edwards in matchups in the passing
game when we all know that's a strength that he has.
Glow Mullings, not getting carries and clearly being a backup that's underutilized
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in those first two weeks especially.
Even Colston Loveland, there's times where he can't even go out for a pass because
the outside receiver's covering him up and how formation rules work.
He'd be an eligible guy downfield. Some of these things just don't make sense
and aren't mistakes that good experienced coaching staffs would make.
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And so we need to come out and have a cohesive, coherent game plan that maximizes
our strengths and gets back to doing the little things that made us successful.
So, controlling the ball on offense, moving the sticks, field positions.
One I haven't mentioned yet, not turning the ball over. We have seven turnovers
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already year to date, had eight all of last year.
We have to put stress on the other team and come up with ways to stress them
by run, run, run, run, run, play action pass over the top.
Stop right there's things we can do on offense we just have to do them and then on the flip side.
Right when we do that on offense and we give the defense a break then on defense
(22:11):
we have to not give up the explosive play we have to tackle well we have to
get off the field on third downs,
the problem is we have to do all of that stuff and going into that you have
to have the good blocking you have to have the ball security you have to have
running back sitting the holes you You have to have the right play calling.
A lot of things have to come together. And unfortunately, this team hasn't been
(22:33):
able to do that yet this year. We haven't seen that complete performance.
We've seen glimpses. There's been times where it's like, dude,
this team could be really, really good. We all know the talent there. They just have to do it.
And so when teams come out and there's so many head scratchers, to quote the late,
great Dennis Green, they tend to prove that
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they are who we thought they were and I
hope that's not the case here I truly hope it's not
I'm rooting for this team I want this team to turn it around but it's it's hard
to envision with what we've seen them coming out and having that brand new offense
for Alex that we talked about right because you can't just install that in one
(23:16):
week that had to have been installed. So did they do that leg work?
Did they, did they do that? Or did they think orgy was just going to run the
same office that Davis Warren's going to be running? And then it's like,
well, why did Davis Warren win the job?
Well, because orgy is trying to run this office that doesn't fit them. So.
Time for my Occam's Razor prediction. What do we know in this game?
(23:38):
We know USC's offense is going to score some points.
Lincoln Riley's offenses are too good. They're going to put some points up.
If Michigan steps up their game, they are capable of slowing them down.
They have the pieces there.
We haven't necessarily seen that under Wink yet. I do think they play better,
especially better than they did against Texas.
(24:00):
But regardless, those Trojan playmakers are going to break through and have
some explosive plays, they're going to score some points.
On the flip side, this is something I haven't mentioned yet.
USC's defense has a new defensive coordinator, Danton Lin.
He is the guy that took over for Jesse Minter with the Ravens when Minter came here.
He did an amazing job last year at UCLA.
(24:23):
He took them from the 87th best defense to the 10th best defense.
From 87th to 10th, USC's defense was horrendous last year.
They are attempting to get them a similar type of improvement.
So far, results have been pretty good. We don't really know how good LSU is.
They shut out Utah State.
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But even if USC's defense just gets into the top 40,
with that offense that they have, it's going to be a tough win for anybody,
especially with that offense that Michigan's trotting out or we expect them to trot out.
So I do see Michigan struggling to keep up.
Also, another piece of this game, we don't know if Colson Loveland is going
(25:07):
to play. He left that game, was seen in a sling.
Coaches have been, they weren't coy about who was going to start at quarterback,
but they've been coy about is Colson Loveland going to play.
I don't think anyone really knows. I can see it going either way.
So there's just too many unknowns right now. And I'm trying to talk myself into picking Michigan.
I've listened to a few things. And I came in thinking, hey, look,
(25:31):
this is clearly USC in this game.
But then I hear some predictions for Michigan or reasons how they can win.
And it's like my wife asked me earlier this year, like, are you ever going to
pick against Michigan? I think that's after I picked Michigan against Texas.
And it's like, I mean, I have to go with what I see. And at that point I had,
in those earlier games, I had a lot of optimism for this team's going to figure it out.
(25:54):
They have that championship pedigree, and they're going to come together and hit that next year.
At this point, there is too many unknowns. I am picking USC to win this game.
I think it will be a little higher scoring than what we anticipate, 31-23.
And so I hope I'm wrong on this one. I want Michigan to pull this out.
(26:16):
This is a huge game. If they pull this out, all the goals are still ahead of them.
I've heard other commentators say if they lose this, it's panic time.
I think USC is going to be a pretty good team.
So I don't think it's time to panic. I think it's time to panic if over the
next few weeks, as they play maybe the easier part of their schedule,
(26:36):
if they can't get some wins there and figure some things out heading into November
where you do have Oregon,
Indiana, it's not looking like a lay down.
And then, of course, Ohio State. That's when I would really panic.
But this would be a great game to win. And I will say one other thing is this is college football.
Most of you have either heard or watched. Kentucky took Georgia down to the limit.
(27:03):
And the week before, Kentucky lost at home to South Carolina 31-6.
This is college football. football I mean we
all saw how dominant Georgia looked against Clemson they
looked like an all-time great team the way they beat Clemson and then Clemson
turned out and looked good against App State put up 60 some points anything
(27:24):
can happen and so Michigan could come out the orgy offense clicks they're moving
the ball the defense gets a turnover wrecks havoc on USC's offense,
it could happen it could happen I just I think there's too many unknowns to
predict it so On that note, go ahead and give me a thumbs up, hit subscribe,
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and we'll be back with post-game reaction after the game. And as always, Go Blue!
Trojan horse arrives. Midwest gridiron welcomes West. History unfolds.
Welcome to the Jolly Good Fellow podcast. Yes, I did start with a haiku.
Don't ever say we're not cultured here at the Jolly Good Fellow podcast.
If you haven't already, please hit that subscribe button. I appreciate you listening.
We're here to talk about the history that will unfold on Saturday as USC comes
(00:26):
to the big house for only the second time in history to take on your Michigan Wolverines.
These teams are no strangers to each other, although they haven't met since 2007.
They have met 10 times in history, most of them being in the Rose Bowl.
USC does hold the all-time edge against Michigan, 6-4.
It's rare for a team to beat Michigan more than the other way around.
(00:50):
But USC has also won three straight. So it's time for Michigan to break that streak.
On a brighter note, the first meeting between these teams was way back in 1948.
Michigan gave USC a 49-0 beatdown to remember.
Of course, if we didn't bring up the ancient past, it wouldn't be a Michigan podcast.
(01:12):
We love to talk about the past here, obviously.
This is one of the positives with expansion, and expansion hasn't been very popular.
Everyone I talked to, and I felt the same way, you're sad to see the Pac-10
or 12 or whatever number they were up to at the end there go by the wayside.
You're sad to see the end to some of the regional rivalries.
(01:33):
We play some of them less often.
But seeing big games like this, this would normally be a Michigan-Rutgers or
a Michigan-Maryland type game.
No offense to those schools, although there's no love lost with Rutgers.
I think playing them all those years in the Big East, we're ready to take a little break from them.
And I feel bad for Maryland being lumped in with them all the time.
(01:56):
They've been a little bit better.
But these games are what you live for as a college football fan.
And seeing USC come to the big house for the second time ever is going to be
amazing. You have another Another big game, Tennessee is going to travel to Oklahoma.
Another game that you just, you're very rare to see that.
You might get three or four of those all out of conference all season.
(02:19):
But now we're going to get much more of that throughout the season.
It's really going to lead to a better experience for the fans.
And so I can't say I don't sometimes wish for the day before the playoffs and
before the expansion in college football how it used to be.
But that being said, we have to take the good with the bad and at least enjoy
the good because this matchup, it's going to be in that 330 SEC slot where you're
(02:42):
used to seeing those SEC Titans go up against each other.
You hear the CBS sports chime, whatever you want to call that play,
the little melody they have.
It just makes you think college football, right? And I grew up a Big Ten guy,
obviously a Michigan guy.
There's something special about those SEC games, partly because of the network
it was on and the time slot and the way they presented it. But CBS,
(03:05):
you have to be happy to be getting a matchup like USC coming to Michigan.
It's going to be a must-watch TV. USC is favored in this game.
Five and a half was the last I've seen.
And Michigan is an underdog here. Michigan is an underdog. I think that's about right.
I'm kind of surprised when I saw the line. The first line I saw was six.
(03:25):
I'm surprised it was a little bit higher the way Michigan's been playing.
And if you're someone that's watched these games, you can tell some things aren't quite right.
So it'll be interesting to see how they show up. I think we're all hoping for
a great showing and that they've figured some things out.
To preview this game, I'm going to do what I call good Wolverine, bad Wolverine.
(03:46):
It's a bad take on good cop, bad cop, but I'm going to point out some of the
good things, the reasons for optimism if you're a Michigan fan,
and then some of the things that might not go our way on the bad side of things.
Start with the good, and I'm going to steal the title of the first Star Wars movie.
There's a new hope that new hope
(04:09):
is Alex Orji he was presumed to be the starter heading
into the season lore has it that he lost the
job two weeks before and shown
more on the radio show this past week said they have an offense built for him
and excited to see it I've talked about this on previous pods I can't imagine
(04:30):
a world where they went through all of spring the coach is obviously in summer
without the players planning,
then fall camp, not with, if you thought this guy was going to be a starter,
you have to have package and plays and a strategy and a scheme that's going
to work for his strengths,
his running ability and emphasize that.
So hearing Sheryl Moore's quote, I really hope that's the case and it gets me excited.
(04:54):
I'm a little doubtful because we haven't seen it, right? I mean,
we've seen him come in and spot duty. We saw him come in and end the game at Arkansas State.
Going through those plays, there were some running concepts.
The problem is, you know, this isn't like, hey, we're going to throw in one or two wrinkles.
This is, this needs to be a rich rod, spread and shred type game plan where
(05:15):
everything's revolving around this new strategy for it to really work, right?
We're talking about a lot of read option, a lot of play action,
a lot of RPOs, a lot of design QB runs.
All of the tricks we saw with Denard, take a few steps forward and then pull
up and rocket a deep pass to a wide open receiver.
(05:36):
All of those things that you can do and take advantage of the safeties playing
up, trying to stop the run, which that's what they've been doing to us anyways,
even with Davis Warren teams aren't respecting the ability to throw deep.
And I wouldn't blame them when you're running the dink raid and you're not going
to ever throw deep teams are going to cheat up.
And so that's why we're getting all these short passes. You can't get any yards after catch.
(06:00):
I'm hopeful that Orgy comes in. We're able to run the ball with him.
Obviously, that helps Mullings out, who just was sensational in the past game.
We're so excited what he can do.
Hopefully, we can get Donovan Edwards going.
And then from there, you do hope, we saw it at the end of Arkansas State,
Fred Moore running 10 yards clear of the nearest quarterback.
(06:23):
Let's hit that pass instead of overthrowing him. after re-watching it looks
like maybe he pulled up a little bit but regardless,
if they're going to pull up we have to take shots deep even if we don't complete
them we got to make the defense play honest and there's a hope that if he comes out and,
maybe the coaches made the wrong decision when they put Davis Warren and I do want to clarify,
(06:45):
Davis Warren made some good throws he's not the only problem on this team he
was playing okay But you hope that they made the wrong decision and Orgy comes
in and really just can take this job and seize it and turn this from an offense that,
quite frankly, is hard to watch into an offense that's fun to watch.
So we're excited for that. There's definitely hope there. I also think this team has another gear.
(07:11):
If they can get it together and get that motivation and play as a team and get
some complimentary football and get some things moving in the right direction,
and this team reminds me of like an old podcast.
Let's say like an old baseball pitcher, right? Someone that had an incredible
career, always had the best fastball, but near the end of the year,
(07:32):
maybe they hung on a little too long.
They lose a few miles off their fastball and they start just getting peppered
and batters are teeing off on them.
And it's like, well, you're still good enough to be in the rotation,
but you aren't quite what you once were.
Obviously, we were so amazing last year. We've lost so much from that team,
but we still have a lot. We still have a lot of tools.
And so can this team be like that pitcher that maybe instead of leaning on your
(07:57):
fastball, some of your off-speed stuff gets a little bit better.
And some of, you know, you become that wily veteran that knows some tricks of
the trade to still get batters out and still be successful.
I think this team can come together. You get that defense playing really well.
That's really where it's going to start.
Get them to get off the field on third downs. You get this offense moving the
(08:19):
ball. The offensive line remembers, hey, we can maul some people, and they start gelling.
You get some, you know, Donovan Edwards maybe breaks a play.
Kalo Mullings gets rolling. I think this team has the talent.
I've talked about it so much.
I mentioned the four projected first-round NFL picks so much.
(08:40):
Your ears have to be bleeding. It's rare to have as much talent as we have on this team.
We can compete with anybody. But we have to be able to have it all come together.
And I've been thinking about like, what word really am I trying to say when
I'm talking about being more than the sum of your parts?
And I think I finally found it, that this team needs synergy.
(09:00):
I'm big on the business buzzwords, but synergy is defined as the interaction
or cooperation of two or more organizations,
substances, or other agents to produce a combined effect greater than the sum of their parts.
That's what Michigan needs. We need to come together as a team,
(09:21):
be cohesive, get some of that synergy,
play complementary football where the offense is possessing the ball.
Winning field position battles, picking up a few explosives,
and then the defense can get some time to rest,
but then they also have to pick up their game and get off the field on third
(09:42):
down, which against Texas, I mean, that was really what killed us.
We looked great on first and second down. Quinn Ewers would step up in the pocket,
rocket a 20-yard pass downfield.
All of a sudden, that's complete.
And then you even saw that against Arkansas State in the first drive.
Teams are able to convert on third down.
We've got to fix that. So you hope to see that. And then final piece of good
(10:05):
news or good Wolverine is, is USC all that it appears?
They had that big showcase game against LSU. They won.
All of a sudden they're rocketing up everyone's top
25 lists and look it's
a good win you meet a team like LSU anytime much less
the first weekend you feel good about it the wins
(10:29):
not against LSU isn't aging so well LSU hasn't
looked super great LSU's defense gave up
21 points to Nichols State for an
SEC team that's not what you want to see suggests their defense
maybe isn't elite usc won
that game against lsu 27 to 20 and then lsu just last week many of you watched
(10:50):
this it was a the refs really blew it at the end in my opinion but they they
won 36 to 33 against that other usc south carolina and gave up almost 400 yards to south carolina.
That LSU team held USC, as I mentioned, to 27 points. They had USC go three of nine on third down.
(11:12):
They really made USC one-dimensional. They were only able to throw the ball.
There was no running game to speak of.
One of the keys for this team, like I mentioned, on offense and defense,
you've got to win third downs.
The type of team we want to be,
the type of team we've been the last three years, on offense we move the chain
(11:32):
on third downs reliably on defense we get off the field on third downs reliably
now as i mentioned earlier that really cost us against texas,
i also want to point out usc's defense we talked about lsu's defense and maybe
what that means is like is usc's offense that great they have miller moss on
(11:53):
defense usc gave up 421 yards to lsu I believe they're giving, and LSU and Utah State,
who the other team, USC, played, they're giving up 4.3 yards to carry and running the football.
Neither of those teams are running juggernauts. So you think Michigan does have
a path here to move the ball on the ground, especially after what we talked
(12:17):
about with Alex Orji taking over.
So there's some reasons to be excited. There's some reasons why you can see
Michigan could win this game.
On to bad Wolverine. Things that you might want to worry about.
To blitz or not to blitz? That is the question.
If you're a Michigan fan, you've heard so much about Link Martindale and his
(12:37):
system and the blitzing, and I'm hearing so much on both sides of the debate, all sorts of things.
You know, Joel Klatt, who I love his show, was talking about it.
I saw another guy in a message board who made a good point because the big news
is like Michigan was 48th in blitzing last year under Minter.
(12:57):
Now under Wink, we're fourth.
But then they compared, yeah, we didn't play anyone for most of last year.
So it included a lot of games where we weren't blitzing at all.
Against Alabama, we actually blitzed. in the Rose Bowl, we actually blitzed
at a similar rate to Wink did against Texas.
So it's like, is there even really a difference? Because Minter,
(13:18):
when it counted against Alabama, picked up his blitz rate.
And you're hearing just so much about the blitzing.
And whether we blitz or not, I don't think that really is the question,
right? And don't get me wrong, the scheme matters.
Wink, of course, we've heard it time and time again. He's the originator of the amoeba system.
(13:40):
But the problem with this team wasn't so much like he blitzed.
It was the weird stuff he was doing, right? Mason Graham taking him out of the
middle and putting him at defensive end.
We're running all of this really complex NFL stuff, and it looks really great.
You're watching it on screen.
(14:00):
You got this third and 15, and you see, wow, what's this? Everyone's standing
up, and they're in weird positions.
Wow, the offense must be really confused. used, but it just doesn't work.
And I don't know if it doesn't work because it's not a good play or because
the players are college guys and you're asking them to do these crazy things.
And really what I think it comes down to is this. You got to tackle,
(14:23):
which we've struggled with.
Not a good recipe for success against this USC team. Okay, we do got to get
pressure with that defensive line.
Even if we only go with four, we should be able to get there.
And you got to put your players in positions to succeed. And that.
Very first, or not the first touchdown, but the touchdown against Fresno State
(14:44):
where we did the all-out blitz.
And there was the coverage break where the receiver caught it,
got the nickel, turned around, took it in for a touchdown.
We shouldn't have had a safety over the top, but there's no reason to blitz that way.
And so can Wink put us in a position to see success?
And here's really the problem.
(15:07):
He's going against Lincoln Riley. That's really the problem. here, right?
And this is why this is in the bad section. Every offense Lincoln Riley,
virtually every offense he's ever run has been in the top three in SP plus rankings, right?
So his offenses are just incredible.
I don't need to tell you about all the Heismans, all the first round NFL quarterback picks.
(15:30):
He is one of the all-time great offensive minds in football, NFL, or college period.
The guy can flat out move the football. And so Wink needs to be on that level
and compete at that level.
He has to have this team's defense looking like last year's defense to keep them in the game.
I will also point out, right, one of the things that maybe is a good piece on
(15:55):
this for Michigan is Michigan's opponents are passing at 60.3%,
which is good for 127th in the country,
meaning teams are getting very, very pass happy against us, which makes sense.
We got that great interior defensive line.
Wink and really any elite defensive coordinator, when you can make a team one-dimensional,
(16:16):
which USC is going to want to be one-dimensional, we should be able to use that
to our advantage and get some stops.
I talked about LSU keeping USC to three and nine on third down.
I think they were 0 for one on fourth down.
Get them in these situations where it's third and long, or even third and short,
they're going to struggle to run the ball. Get them off the field.
(16:36):
Make it difficult for them to convert.
Keep the explosives down. Recipe for success.
Another not so great thing in the bad Wolverine section, explosive skill players, right?
Michigan's offense has seen a lack of explosiveness.
USC is going to have the edge, especially in the receiving area in terms of explosives.
(17:02):
Zachariah Branch, you watch this guy return kicks. I've said in the past,
like Samaj Morgan jumps off the screen.
Zachariah Branch definitely jumps off the screen. He is fun to watch.
It's going to be, I don't want to say fun because it's going to be nerve wracking
to watch him go against this Michigan team.
But when the ball is in his hands, he's,
he's a threat to take it to the house every single time. And so going back to
(17:25):
point number one, blitzing and what scheme is Wink running,
Wink's going to have to put these guys in positions to succeed because USC has
guys that start above Branch, right?
They have other guys, and obviously they're playing different positions,
and Branch is the guy you try to get the ball to.
But they have a lot of receiving talent that can break this game wide open.
(17:47):
So we're going to have to keep them in check and really limit the explosives
Explosives, and not to go back to last year again, but what have we,
not even just last year, last three years, how have we handled Ohio State's
elite receiving talent?
We need to go back to that style where, hey, you're going to get your plays,
but we're going to limit the explosives, make you drive the field,
(18:08):
and hope to get you off the field on third downs.
That's really what they need to do, but these receivers get loose and start
breaking tackles, and Michigan's had trouble tackling in the open field,
it's going to be a problem.
And then the final thing that I think is a reason for maybe pessimism heading
into this game, if you're a Michigan fan, is logic.
(18:33):
Logic. And what I mean by that, and I'll start,
but back when Brady Hoke was the coach, they were playing Penn State,
and most of you know this, there was a game where he ran 36 times for a total of 36 yards.
For those keeping track at home, that is horrific.
(18:53):
And to run the ball 36 times and to keep banging your head against the wall,
and you only have 36 yards to show for it.
It was one of those where you just leave that game. Not only is it hard to watch,
but afterwards, it's like, this doesn't even make sense, right?
How can you put your trust in that coaching staff moving forward?
(19:13):
Even if they get the best players in the country, when you make a tactical decision
like that, it's hard to see the path forward.
And with this team, there have been so many head scratchers that it's hard not
to see this team underperforming,
(19:34):
and it's almost hard to see any plans they make playing out right.
Now, I will say that Brady Hope team, team.
Could surprise you, too. We
had the game where we lost on the two-point conversion against Ohio State.
Huge underdogs. Devin Gardner played amazing. They came out with a different game plan.
But sometimes these guys can surprise you. But when so many things don't make
(19:57):
sense, so the late quarterback switch.
The two unexpected starters that weren't even in the top two favorites to win
the job, they come from behind.
And, you know, Sadam Gadis over Greg Crippen,
Link over Gentry, like, why aren't, and then not only that, but the whole, the line as a whole,
(20:21):
when you have the pedigree and the development that Sean Moore has had with
these guys, for them to look just so lost, it doesn't make a lot of sense, right?
You should, we have the talent there from a recruiting standpoint.
They've been in the program. They have the experience. They should have the
development. Why isn't that working?
(20:42):
The defense, we have all this returning talent, but yet we've looked lackluster at times.
The offensive scheme, not able to get Donovan Edwards in matchups in the passing
game when we all know that's a strength that he has.
Glow Mullings, not getting carries and clearly being a backup that's underutilized
(21:03):
in those first two weeks especially.
Even Colston Loveland, there's times where he can't even go out for a pass because
the outside receiver's covering him up and how formation rules work.
He'd be an eligible guy downfield. Some of these things just don't make sense
and aren't mistakes that good experienced coaching staffs would make.
(21:24):
And so we need to come out and have a cohesive, coherent game plan that maximizes
our strengths and gets back to doing the little things that made us successful.
So, controlling the ball on offense, moving the sticks, field positions.
One I haven't mentioned yet, not turning the ball over. We have seven turnovers
(21:48):
already year to date, had eight all of last year.
We have to put stress on the other team and come up with ways to stress them
by run, run, run, run, run, play action pass over the top.
Stop right there's things we can do on offense we just have to do them and then on the flip side.
Right when we do that on offense and we give the defense a break then on defense
(22:11):
we have to not give up the explosive play we have to tackle well we have to
get off the field on third downs,
the problem is we have to do all of that stuff and going into that you have
to have the good blocking you have to have the ball security you have to have
running back sitting the holes you You have to have the right play calling.
A lot of things have to come together. And unfortunately, this team hasn't been
(22:33):
able to do that yet this year. We haven't seen that complete performance.
We've seen glimpses. There's been times where it's like, dude,
this team could be really, really good. We all know the talent there. They just have to do it.
And so when teams come out and there's so many head scratchers, to quote the late,
great Dennis Green, they tend to prove that
(22:55):
they are who we thought they were and I
hope that's not the case here I truly hope it's not
I'm rooting for this team I want this team to turn it around but it's it's hard
to envision with what we've seen them coming out and having that brand new offense
for Alex that we talked about right because you can't just install that in one
(23:16):
week that had to have been installed. So did they do that leg work?
Did they, did they do that? Or did they think orgy was just going to run the
same office that Davis Warren's going to be running? And then it's like,
well, why did Davis Warren win the job?
Well, because orgy is trying to run this office that doesn't fit them. So.
Time for my Occam's Razor prediction. What do we know in this game?
(23:38):
We know USC's offense is going to score some points.
Lincoln Riley's offenses are too good. They're going to put some points up.
If Michigan steps up their game, they are capable of slowing them down.
They have the pieces there.
We haven't necessarily seen that under Wink yet. I do think they play better,
especially better than they did against Texas.
(24:00):
But regardless, those Trojan playmakers are going to break through and have
some explosive plays, they're going to score some points.
On the flip side, this is something I haven't mentioned yet.
USC's defense has a new defensive coordinator, Danton Lin.
He is the guy that took over for Jesse Minter with the Ravens when Minter came here.
He did an amazing job last year at UCLA.
(24:23):
He took them from the 87th best defense to the 10th best defense.
From 87th to 10th, USC's defense was horrendous last year.
They are attempting to get them a similar type of improvement.
So far, results have been pretty good. We don't really know how good LSU is.
They shut out Utah State.
(24:44):
But even if USC's defense just gets into the top 40,
with that offense that they have, it's going to be a tough win for anybody,
especially with that offense that Michigan's trotting out or we expect them to trot out.
So I do see Michigan struggling to keep up.
Also, another piece of this game, we don't know if Colson Loveland is going
(25:07):
to play. He left that game, was seen in a sling.
Coaches have been, they weren't coy about who was going to start at quarterback,
but they've been coy about is Colson Loveland going to play.
I don't think anyone really knows. I can see it going either way.
So there's just too many unknowns right now. And I'm trying to talk myself into picking Michigan.
I've listened to a few things. And I came in thinking, hey, look,
(25:31):
this is clearly USC in this game.
But then I hear some predictions for Michigan or reasons how they can win.
And it's like my wife asked me earlier this year, like, are you ever going to
pick against Michigan? I think that's after I picked Michigan against Texas.
And it's like, I mean, I have to go with what I see. And at that point I had,
in those earlier games, I had a lot of optimism for this team's going to figure it out.
(25:54):
They have that championship pedigree, and they're going to come together and hit that next year.
At this point, there is too many unknowns. I am picking USC to win this game.
I think it will be a little higher scoring than what we anticipate, 31-23.
And so I hope I'm wrong on this one. I want Michigan to pull this out.
(26:16):
This is a huge game. If they pull this out, all the goals are still ahead of them.
I've heard other commentators say if they lose this, it's panic time.
I think USC is going to be a pretty good team.
So I don't think it's time to panic. I think it's time to panic if over the
next few weeks, as they play maybe the easier part of their schedule,
(26:36):
if they can't get some wins there and figure some things out heading into November
where you do have Oregon,
Indiana, it's not looking like a lay down.
And then, of course, Ohio State. That's when I would really panic.
But this would be a great game to win. And I will say one other thing is this is college football.
Most of you have either heard or watched. Kentucky took Georgia down to the limit.
(27:03):
And the week before, Kentucky lost at home to South Carolina 31-6.
This is college football. football I mean we
all saw how dominant Georgia looked against Clemson they
looked like an all-time great team the way they beat Clemson and then Clemson
turned out and looked good against App State put up 60 some points anything
(27:24):
can happen and so Michigan could come out the orgy offense clicks they're moving
the ball the defense gets a turnover wrecks havoc on USC's offense,
it could happen it could happen I just I think there's too many unknowns to
predict it so On that note, go ahead and give me a thumbs up, hit subscribe,
(27:46):
and we'll be back with post-game reaction after the game. And as always, Go Blue!
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