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August 26, 2024 • 17 mins

Welcome to the Jolly Goodfellow podcast with Jacob Akers! It's game week, and the Michigan Wolverines are set to kick off their season against the Fresno State Bulldogs. In this episode, we dive into everything you need to know about both teams as they prepare to clash at the Big House in Ann Arbor.

We'll recap some thrilling Week Zero action, including Georgia Tech's upset over Florida State, before focusing on Michigan's upcoming matchup. Learn about Fresno State's strengths, weaknesses, and key players, including their veteran quarterback Mikey Keene and their defensive challenges.

We'll also discuss Michigan's formidable defense, and what fans can expect from the Wolverines' offense. Will Michigan dominate on the ground, or will Fresno State's returning starters pose a challenge?

Join us as we set the stage for an exciting season opener, providing insights, predictions, and what this game could mean for Michigan's season ahead. Don't miss it!

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Music.

(00:15):
Welcome to the Jolly Goodfellow podcast. My name's Jacob Akers.
I appreciate you joining me today.
It's officially game week. This week, the Michigan Wolverines have a game.
College football's back.
If you're like me, you had some fun watching some Week Zero action.
One of the best Week Zero games I can remember, you had Florida State and Georgia Tech.

(00:39):
Of course, Georgia Tech upset them. It was a really exciting game all the way down to the wire.
But today we are talking the defending national champion, Michigan Wolverines,
as they open up their season against the Fresno State Fighting Bulldogs.
That'll take place in Ann Arbor at Michigan Stadium, the Big House,
7.30 p.m. Eastern Time on NBC.

(01:02):
Noah Eagle and Todd Blackledge will get the call with Karen Tappen on the sideline.
And Fresno State's mascot, of course, is the Bulldog. Maybe they should be called the Raisins.
Fun fact, Fresno, California, where Fresno State is located,
is known as the Raisin Capital of the World.

(01:23):
Over 60% of the world's raisins produced right there in Fresno. Who knew?
But you didn't log into this podcast to hear about raisins or agriculture or
fun facts about Fresno, California.
We want to talk football. And so Fresno State, of course, hails from the Mountain
West, where they've been one of the dominant programs along with Boise State.

(01:44):
And they have 29 conference championships, the most recent being in 2022.
Several famous football alums, the NFL fans will be able to recognize David
and Derek Carr, as well as all pro Devontae Adams.
Adams and they're coming off a pretty successful 2023

(02:04):
finished at nine and four however they
did finish the regular season on a three-game skid did go
on to win their bowl game but a little disappointing for them they had sights
on the Mountain West championship but fell short of that big news surrounding
this team is that their head coach Jeff Tedford who was instrumental in really

(02:26):
getting that program rolling and had a lot of success at Cal, not a easy place to win,
but early in the 2000s, he did a great job there.
He had to step down as coach in July due to health issues.
So in steps, Tim Skipper, who had been serving as their assistant coach.

(02:46):
And also coaching the linebackers. He also served as the head coach during the
team's 37-10 bowl game against New Mexico State.
So even though he's new to the head coaching role, don't expect much of a drop-off
as he has been around the program and has served in those head coaching duties before.
Now, this Fresno State team is a team that returns eight offensive starters,

(03:10):
and five on defense from that 9-4 squad.
SP Plus is something you'll hear me use a lot. It's advanced analytics from Bill Connolly.
It really gives you a good idea
on what you can expect. It does get more accurate as the season starts.
So sometimes these early season rankings, SP Plus, can be pretty off.
But it has them ranked as the 63rd best team in the nation, 46th on offense and 88th on defense.

(03:36):
Compare that to Michigan, which is projected to be the 7th best team,
a 41 ranking on offense and obviously a lead on defense with a ranking of third.
So to give you some context on what that looks like, a ranking of 63 for S&P
Plus for Fresno, that's in the same vicinity as teams like Colorado,
who's ranked 60th, Illinois, who's ranked 61st, Purdue, 68th,

(04:01):
and then our favorite little brothers to the north, MSU, comes in at 71.
This is a real team. This is a real team, Fresno State.
If they had a different name like Colorado, We'd probably be looking at this
game a little bit different entering the season, but hey, it is what it is.
They do return their quarterback, Mikey Keene, not to be confused with Max Keene,

(04:22):
the creator of Trash Truck.
You can probably tell I have a two-year-old at home, but Mikey Keene,
in all seriousness, he's a quality starter.
He led Fresno State to 20th in the nation in pass yards per game.
Guy's a veteran. He's played a lot of football. He's a junior who started his
career, had two years at UCF.

(04:42):
So he's been around different programs.
Of note, he's expected to be really good. The class of the Mountain West,
almost all major outlets have named him to the preseason All-Mountain West team.
So you can expect this Fresno State team to come in with a competent high floor offense.
They also return four offensive line starters.

(05:04):
This leads you to believe that their line should be very solid.
And looking at last year's stats, they've held up pretty well.
In the past game, they had a QB sack percentage of 5.36%, which was 45th in the nation.
So not necessarily elite, but in the top half of the country.
That being said, this takes us to our first big issue that Fresno State has.

(05:26):
They ranked 116th in rush yards per game and 96th in the country in yards per rush.
This team has been horrific trying to run the ball.
And at some points last year, they weren't even trying to run the ball.
They came in at 127th in rush play percentage.
So totally one-dimensional.

(05:47):
And when we look at the outlook and what that translates to when you take the
field in Ann Arbor against Michigan just a few days from now,
being one-dimensional and not having any semblance of a running game, how do I say this?
It's a really, really, really poor idea. here.
Also, when you look at this team being one-dimensional,

(06:10):
that 45th against Saks that I mentioned that their O-line was last year,
it sounds decent enough, but when you're going in against an elite line that
could be just as good, if not better, than last year's national championship winning line,
at least the starters, probably not the depth, right?
If you're one dimensional, they're going to be able to pin their ears back,

(06:31):
come after the quarterback, back. Wink Martindale is something he's been known for.
I think this offensive line is going to struggle to keep Mikey Keene upright
in this matchup, especially if he can't get any running game going.
Yeah, I don't know much more to say about the Fresno State offense.
I mean, I think they're going to be solid.
They're going to struggle running the ball against this Michigan team.

(06:52):
And due to that, partly in pass protection, I do think they're going to come
in with a quick passing dink and dunk offense to try to protect Keane.
Also, it's going to be interesting to see if they even try to establish the run early.
I think that's something you have to do, and they're going to have to try to
do some things to move the ball and keep their quarterback clean.

(07:13):
They do have some talent at the receiver position, including sophomore Jalen
Moss and senior Mac Delina.
Both were solid last year. Moss especially should be a standout player for them throughout the year.
That being said, when you have Will Johnson and your secretary,
no one on this roster in terms of receiving skill really seems like an issue

(07:34):
or someone's going to keep you up at night. Pivoting to defense.
As I mentioned, their defense was 88th last year in SP+.
Absolutely putrid against the run. When your opponent, like Michigan's motto,
is smash, if you can't stop the run, that's going to be a huge problem.

(07:55):
To give you some context into that number, late in the year,
Fresno State gave up over 300 yards on the ground.
So I want to clarify, 300 yards on the ground? Not through the air, but on the ground.
So that's a lot. in back-to-back games against rushing juggernauts like San
Jose State and New Mexico.
They then proceeded to give up 226 yards to San Diego State,

(08:17):
whose offense didn't really like the world on fire.
You're giving up that many rush yards, it's almost impossible to win,
as we've seen a lot of teams that played Michigan.
You're not going to win if the other team's rushing at will.
For the year, they finished at 97th in the country against the run,
so this should be a huge edge in the game for Michigan. Michigan also of note
on their defensive side, they did get a talented edge rusher in the portal from USC, Corey Foreman.

(08:42):
This is a former five-star at one point, some outlets had him ranked as the
number one recruit in the nation.
Obviously, they're going to try to make him a factor and get him to the QB.
It'll be a solid test for our revamped O-line.
And as a whole, really, Fresno State was pretty good at getting to the pass.
So they were third in the Mountain West last year in sacks.
They have a good returning group. So this will be a good test for our offensive

(09:05):
line, seeing if we can keep our quarterback clean.
Being week one, there's a lot of mysteries. I don't know how valuable it is
to break down any more of the positional battles.
There's so much on both sides that we don't really know how it's going to play
out. Now, that being said, I do want to give you a key word for this game, barometer.
This is going to be an excellent barometer for this Michigan team.

(09:27):
And I think there's a lot of similarities to the UNLV game last year.
If you remember that, Michigan beat them soundly. UNLV is also in the Mountain West.
And then after Michigan beat them, obviously we were on to bigger and better things.
Kind of lost track of UNLV. There's not a huge market to follow UNLV football
out there, surprisingly.
But they actually ended up being one of the better teams we played,

(09:47):
at least in the early going of the season.
UNLV went on to play for the Mountain West Championship last year.
Their final 2023 S&P rating was 61.
So I'd already talked about Fresno State being very similar, 63rd.
And I call this a barometer game because I think by 9 p.m. on Saturday night,

(10:08):
should put us around halftime, we'll have a fairly good idea of how good this
Michigan team is, at least going into the start of the season.
If at halftime we're throttling them we're constricting
them constricting them similar to what we did against UNLV last year it's really
dominating on the D line we're able to run the ball the offensive line's looking

(10:29):
cohesive our QB play looks at least competent but hopefully we have a difference
maker there I think it's all systems go let's get ready for Texas that's going
to be an excellent excellent sign however.
If the team comes out and they look sloppy, we can't move the ball.
The defense isn't suffocating them in the elite way we think they'll be able
to. I think that'll be very telling too.

(10:50):
That being said, if Michigan does struggle, I think there is some nuance here.
I'd be concerned, as I mentioned, but I wouldn't necessarily hit the panic button just yet.
I do think they're going to try to save some of their scheme and tricks and
play calling as a surprise for Texas.

(11:11):
Also, if you take one thing away from this podcast, Fresno State,
this is a real team. They have a veteran quarterback.
They're returning a lot of starters. For most of them, playing opening weekend
in the big house, in primetime, on NBC, against the defending national champions,

(11:32):
as I'd like to remind you all.
This could be the biggest game for a lot of these Fresno State players they'll ever play.
The most exposure they'll ever
have. The biggest crowd, the biggest TV audience, they have a new coach.
They are thinking they're coming in here to shock the world.
The point spread is around 21, 21.5. So it's not some crazy big line like you've

(11:55):
seen in the 30s, 40s, or 50s.
They are expecting to come in here and compete. I've also seen predictions for
this Fresno State team to make the 12-team playoff as that group of five spot.
Now, most of these predictions I'm seeing has them as a sleeper,
a team that could sneak in there. It certainly could happen.

(12:16):
But this is a real team. They have real goals. They think they can accomplish big things this year.
If you did watch, as I mentioned when we started the show, any of Week Zero,
all three dogs in the main Saturday slate outperformed.
Georgia Tech obviously took down Florida State, as we had mentioned.
For SP Plus reference, that was a matchup of the number 12 Seminoles versus

(12:39):
the number 58 Yellow Jackets.
Michigan 7 versus Fresno State at 63.
So not far from the gap that Michigan's going to see in those ratings.
New Mexico was similar dogs to Montana State.
Took them down to the limit. And then we almost saw a massive,
massive update as 27-point dogs, Nevada, only lost by four to SMU.

(13:03):
And I think that that's just important to point out in the preseason we play
we play all these matchups on paper but you have to remember the other team's
trying to win too now this team's not just going in there to roll over and say
oh well you know you're better than me Will Johnson I'm not even going to try
Fresno State's coming in here to give this their best shot
and I think Michigan's getting a lot of teams best shots this year and that's really why,

(13:29):
thinking about that UNLV comparison to last year, if we go in and we trounce
them, we easily handle business.
That's going to be a great sign for the pieces this team has as being as dominant,
especially on that D line and that defensive side of the ball as we really hope they'll be.
I do think that you're going to see an angry Wolverine team on Saturday night.

(13:52):
I think the Michigan versus everybody mindset is still in play.
If you're not following the news, The Stallions, NOA, just dropped today.
Having a new coach, the preseason prognostications really overlooking this team.
Seeing them ranked fourth, not in the country, but in the Big Ten in a lot of places.
It's a given, according to these publications and commentators,

(14:15):
that Ohio State is the class of the big, along with Oregon.
Don't think this isn't a proud program that wants to prove all of that wrong.
They are, after all, the reigning defending national champs.
There's a lot of guys on this team with a lot of wins on their resumes,
a lot of successes, a lot of Big Ten championships to their name,
a national championship.

(14:36):
Not a lot of losses, not a lot of failures. They're used to coming in and dominating
just about anyone that lines up against them.
They aren't coming into this game planning on playing second fiddle to anyone.
So prediction time, I think Michigan wins this game 34-7.
The offense, I believe, will be dynamic enough to move the ball.

(14:58):
Surprise, surprise, especially on the ground. I do think Fresno State probably
sells out to try to stop that, and it opens up a few big plays through the air.
That point total for Michigan of 34 is low.
I don't think it'll tell the whole story because, one, Michigan,
no surprise, is going to have a very slow pace of play.
They're trying to be vanilla and safe for Week 2 in that Texas matchup.

(15:20):
The way the running clock rules work now, I don't think you're going to see
that huge point total for Michigan.
On the defensive side, I do think Fresno State has trouble establishing any type of run game.
Being one-dimensional combined with Michigan's incredible line,
being able to get to Mikey Keene is going to result in a lot of Fresno State trying to dink and dunk.

(15:41):
They're going to really struggle to find any real sustained success against
this defense. I do think they'll script something up early or capitalize off
a mistake to get in the end zone.
But all in all, my prediction is Michigan gets out with a solid 34-7 win.
Fans probably are left wanting a little more fireworks, a little more confidence going into Texas.
But it's that classic Boa Constrictor play style and reading between the lines.

(16:06):
I think we have a lot to be excited for heading into week two.
So that's my prediction. I'm super excited to be here with you week one.
If you like the show, I would love a five-star review.
Leave me a comment, and I appreciate it.
Music.
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