September 5, 2024 • 40 mins
Welcome to the Jolly Goodfellow podcast, hosted by Jacob Akers. In this episode, we dive into the Michigan Wolverines' 30-10 victory over Fresno State, analyzing the key moments and standout performances. Jacob discusses the defensive strategies, offensive challenges, and what the Wolverines need to improve as they prepare for their colossal matchup against the Texas Longhorns.
We also take a closer look at Texas' dominant performance against Colorado State and what Michigan needs to do to secure a win. From defensive blitzes to offensive playmaking, this episode covers everything you need to know heading into this high-stakes game. Tune in for in-depth analysis, predictions, and a whole lot of Wolverine pride. Go Blue!
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Episode Transcript
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Music.
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Welcome to the Jolly Goodfellow podcast. Of course, it's your host,
Jacob Akers, and I'm here to recap the Fresno State game, game one,
a 30 to 10 win by the Michigan Wolverines.
We'll get into that and also we'll do a preview of the Texas Longhorns and what
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is going to be a colossal matchup.
And so starting with the Fresno State game.
So, yeah, that happened, I guess.
I do feel like I should maybe do some bragging. I did predict the score pretty
close. I think it was at 31-7.
It turns out to be 30-10.
I did say the win would feel a little lackluster. It leaves some fans wanting more fireworks.
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Although, if we're being fair, Will Johnson did provide some fireworks at the
end there with that pick six.
I did warn everyone, don't get the panic button because Fresno State, they are a real team.
They were coming into this game thinking they could compete,
thinking they could win, and they tried to show out, and they did well.
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They played well. They didn't roll over at any point.
The broadcast kept showing how they were 4-4 against top 25 teams,
and I know they have a streak of beating Big Ten teams the past several years.
That was a pretty good team that Michigan beat, and I don't think we can lose
sight of that. I think that defense had some returning defensive tackles and
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is going to end up being better than what we thought they were.
On offense, their quarterback looked strong.
I want to say great, but I think he's a Mountain West guy that's returning.
He's, as we saw, the king of the dink and dunk offense, which they had a lot of success with.
So props to Mikey Keeney. He did an amazing job.
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That was a good Fresno State team.
But knowing all of that, really, like I said, kind of predicting such a performance.
Why does the situation feel so dire, so gloomy, especially heading into a colossal
matchup against Texas, right?
You expected this to happen, so why doesn't it feel so great?
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Digging in there, I think for one, Texas came out, if you followed their game
at all, and they totally handled a bad Colorado State team.
And in any facet of the game you want to look at, Texas looked strong.
They looked great all around.
They looked a part of the top five team.
No ifs, ands, or buts about it.
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For us, on the other hand, and watching the game, the way the opening drive
started were fantastic.
We looked like we were shot out of a cannon. We were playing fast and aggressive.
We got the pick on D and then went right down and scored.
And it seemed at least for those few minutes, like this team wasn't going to miss a beat.
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And then we did the weaknesses and the concerns that I think everyone had heading
into the season really started to show through.
And so let's talk through this first. Let's start with the good.
I think that's a good place to start.
This, this defense is going to be great. We did blitz and we blitzed a lot.
I think it was something like 65% of passing plays or something like that.
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Definitely a different feel from the previous years where we faked a lot of
blitzes, but we ended up showing that amoeba front and then dropping back.
We'll see how that plays out, but hopefully this was just Wink Martindale's
way of giving Texas some things to think about and we pivot.
I like to give credit where credit's due to my sources. I was reading an article on Emgo blog.
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If you don't go there, if you're listening to this you probably do but if you
don't I can't recommend their analysis enough,
they charted out the plays and the plays
will be rushed four on defense we're giving up something like two yards per
play that's an amazing metric right you only get up two yards per play you're
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seeing a ton of success on D that is shut down lockdown defense on plays that we rushed more
than four so five plus I think we're giving up something
like eight yards per play now I'm sure there's some
noise there in the data that's not going
to always play out like that Fresno State was a dink and dunk offense and so
the quarterback's only going to take a quick drop two seconds and out the blitz
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isn't going to be effective so I would take that data with a grain of salt but
I think it's very you know it shows all the concerns people have with let's not blitz It's too much.
We have the defensive line where we're going to get home to the quarterback anyways.
Let's trust our secondary. Give them a few extra guys. Give them some help.
Let's not give up the big plays.
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And I did say like heading into Texas game, I hope that we pivot.
And I think that brings up a good point. And you hear this a lot in any analysis
around this upcoming Texas game.
And I don't know if every fan base does this. I think they do to some extent,
but Michigan in particular always has this lore that we're saving our big plays
and our tricks for the big games.
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We don't want to show too much. We got Ohio state up at the end of the year,
right? We're going to pull out this wrinkle or we're going to pull out this trick play.
Sometimes that happens. We do see those wrinkles, right?
QB keeps on the read option, things like that. Other times those wrinkles never come to fruition.
So anyone that thinks we're just going to walk into Texas and,
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you know, pedal to the metal, show them a bunch of things they haven't seen.
I'm sure there's some of that, but even the coaching staff has to be thinking
that on some level, but to think all of that stuff is just going to come out to come to fruition.
I think that's maybe some, some wishful thinking. you
know so there's a lot of talk about saving things for Texas we'll see
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no one really knows it it's a convenient thing because
if you cover this team you can always say well we're saving this
for Texas now that being said back to the game analysis the D line was as advertised
it's going to make life tough for anyone that we play Will Johnson of course
is Will Johnson there was some
weirdness there before the exclamation point pick six at the end had a
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couple of plays where the guy got behind him, gave up some big plays.
One was like, should have been a touchdown, but the QB couldn't connect with the receiver.
Um, I think we'll Johnson's going to be fine. He's one of the best players in
the country for a reason.
And I, the substitution, it was really what I was speaking to in terms of the weird part. I, I.
For a second, you thought, is this guy hurt? What's going on?
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Is he on the coach's bad side?
And it turns out they just were rotating people. I understand the depth.
I understand the play there. They did that a ton last year.
And it really paid dividends for them. And long-term, I can see why you do that,
but keep Will Johnson out there, right?
Let's get up by a few touchdowns on these guys before we start rotating and
taking out our best players.
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And one thing I mentioned in the preview to Fresno State, I do think this team
will be like UNLV was last year.
They're going to go on to be a successful team. I do think this win will look
a lot better in retrospect.
UNLV last year, we beat them soundly, if not spectacularly, and they ended up
going on and having a successful year playing in the Mountain West championship game.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Fresno State does that. I wouldn't be surprised if
Fresno State wins the Mountain on the list.
I wouldn't be surprised if there's a G5 team in the playoff,
to be quite honest with you.
If that's the case, how much better does this win look?
Our special teams in kicking game, Zavada looks like an amazing weapon.
I'm going to coin what I think is a new football term. It's usually for basketball,
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but I think this is going to be a 3 and D type team.
Play amazing defense and then play for the long field goals.
I think we're going to see a lot of them this year based based on what we saw from the offense.
Speaking of the offense, Loveland and Mullings, they're the real deal.
Loveland is a matchup nightmare, was an amazing security blanket for our quarterbacks.
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Mullings, when he gets going, he is so, so tough to bring down.
The concerns. Let's talk about the concerns. I think you have to realistically
downgrade the quarterback, the receiving crew, and the offensive line expectations.
All of them seemed decent, if not exceptional.
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I'm not saying time to panic, but some of the things you hope to see just didn't
play out. I think they could all grow over the year.
I don't know if they'll gel, especially the offensive line. to be where we need
them to be, to be truly successful.
I think they do. The offensive line probably has the best chance of really figuring it out.
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But until that drive in the fourth quarter, they weren't the maulers where you'd hope to see.
And the way NBC was showing some of these replays, it was pretty embarrassing,
some of the missed assignments and pass protection and short yardage.
There was a play where Gediz, the guy just got lower than him,
put him on roller skates, just pushed him right back into the backfield.
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Elhadi missed a block, was caught on camera looking around. I would not want
to be him in the film room.
I'm sure Coach Moore had some choice words for him.
And so, I mean, I think you expect some of that given game one,
five new guys. I do think some of that can be fixable.
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That being said, some of those were just embarrassing misses.
So we need to see a lot more of what we saw in the fourth quarter when we were
able to mull it with mullings and a lot less than what we saw in the other three quarters.
The wide receivers are just not exceptional.
I think there is a path to this being an average group.
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And I said this in the preview there, but that's mostly based on the weapons around them.
I think Loveland, and if we can use Edwards in a way where he's explosive,
if Morgan, they tried to target him and do some things with them,
didn't really break out.
If he He can be explosive and be someone that you scheme open and get some big plays with.
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I think there are some pieces in Morris and some of these other guys,
but you can't afford drops.
And if this turns into just a dink and dunk offense where we aren't scheming
guys open and the receivers just can't do anything, this team's going to be
in trouble, at least based on the scheme that we saw play out against Fresno State.
And I think that does get me to the biggest concern. And here's where I'll cover the quarterbacks.
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And it's not necessarily all on the quarterbacks. I think that this team is
going to resemble a poor man's Penn State from last year.
And I think I said in the preview, we could be a rich man's Penn State.
Right now, what we're looking at is a great D and just nothing on offense.
Afraid to throw the ball more than five yards downfield. We didn't see any creativity, no explosiveness.
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This at one point in the fourth quarter davis warren
had 23 attempts for 100 yards four
thirds an attempt i'm sorry that's just not going to get it done and
maybe we were saving things and we come out with a better scheme we've seen
this over the past few years where you know you don't want to panic from one
poor performance but it seemed to be almost a scheme change right like a different
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offenses run out there and that's my biggest concern is can we optimize the pieces we have
on this offense fully weaponize them can we
find a cohesive way to move the football and play
what has become a hot term around these parts complementary football the qb
back and forth that we saw orgy getting in on random plays second and long right
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traditionally passing downs it's not working it's not fooling anyone neither
the quarterbacks can get into a rhythm them.
So, I mean, let's talk orgy. I think a lot's being made of his one pass out
into the flat that he threw into the ground and landed five yards in front of the receiver.
You know, I wasn't in the big house, but you can almost hear the audible gasp
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from the crowd like, oh, that's not good.
I'm not so concerned about the one pass. I do think it's probably bellwether
for what he does and why he's not starting.
I'm just wondering if he gets that same throw 10 times though,
a short pass to the flats, how many times does he hit it?
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Is it eight out of 10? Or is it five out of 10?
Like if this guy can't hit that seven or eight times out of 10,
then he can't play quarterback.
And we don't know the answer to that question. Only the coaches and the players
on that team, that locker room do know that.
But can this guy make the routine throws to be a serious quarterback and keep
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the defense honest, or can he not?
And if he can't, then let's move on.
Use him as an offensive weapon, or a G-cat if you will, but the random every
series play needs to stop.
We need to use him as a goal line weapon, maybe third and fourth and short.
And what's really concerning is if he can't make those, we need to fully,
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if he can't make those, it makes you wonder, were we being gaslit all offseason?
Orgy's the guy. So many people are saying that. Maybe that was just coming from
the fan base. Maybe the coach is like, I don't know where you got that from.
But it seems like there were serious efforts to make this work.
And if he can't hit those throws, then that's a serious problem.
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And we've probably set the team back and put ourselves into a quarter by having
to run an offense that suits his skills, but we don't have his skills out there
because he can't make the throws.
Now, if he can make the throws, we need to fully weaponize this guy.
Give him some throws, create a real offense that utilizes his skills.
He had one read option where he held the mesh point before pulling the ball,
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wide open path, right straight to 10 plus yards.
That's what we need. If we do that 10 times in this game, it's a different offensive performance.
Add in some of the Denard era, let's fake run towards the line of scrimmage,
then pull up and pass downfield to a wide open player with no one within 50 yards of him.
There's ways to scheme him some easy throws that keeps the defense honest while
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adding some explosives.
Regardless, that only happens if you take the training wheels off.
If he's going to be out there, you've got to take the training wheels off.
If we can't take the training wheels off, then I think that tells you what we
need to know if he can play or not.
And honestly, I have the same opinion of Davis Warren.
If this guy is our QB, if he beat out Orgy, if he beat out Tuttle,
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obviously Tuttle, the injury concerns or whatnot, if this guy's our quarterback, let's use him.
The scouting report is that this guy can run probably a step or two slower than
JJ, but it's still a weapon.
Let's run some real read option. QB injuries and all that, I hear you.
But we've been sold that we have three legit guys that can play quarterback for this team.
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We didn't bring any transfers in from the portal.
If this team's going to hit a ceiling, we have to let them play and at least
add another dimension or threat to another dimension to this offense.
Last year, we were dominant enough to only pull the QB run out occasionally in the biggest moments.
This year, we need more of that spark. We need more of the explosiveness.
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We need to give the defense something else to think about. And that goes the
same for downfield shots.
We did throw some against Fresno. Obviously, we had the pick and we had the
one that Tyler Morris pulled up on. But we have to keep attacking.
We were trying to out dink and
dunk the dink and dunk Fresno State offense and it just wasn't working.
All that being said, what's maybe the most concerning for me is the shotgun
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running game reminded me so much of the Shea Patterson, Josh Gaddis,
speed and space era, where the offense was always just missing something.
If we can go under center, if we can get big, if we can maul in the run game,
especially with Mullings, that is our best shot at success.
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Sprinkle in the QB keeps, play action passes, grind the other team down while playing great D.
All of that is dependent on if this line can open holes in the ground game or not.
I'm not saying, you know, zero shotgun, you know, modern football,
every team's going to have shotgun packages.
But going back to that successful running game where we're pounding the rock
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is what gave us success these past three years.
And seeing us really depart from that and so So many four wide receiver sets.
I don't think it's going to pan out great. I alluded to this earlier,
but I do wonder if they back themselves into a corner planning to play orgy.
They built the shotgun spread option type attack under the assumption that orgy would be the guy.
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You spend all this time and you invest an opportunity cost on this offense to
build the spread option with the real QB running threat.
At did we lose did that opportunity
cost mean because we spent so much time on
the running game on the spread option qb run
that we lost our ability to go under center and run the
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ball i think time will tell on this but the
spread shotgun formations are great when you have that mobile
quarterback we've all seen that but unless
you have an elite running quarterback back or a
guy that can throw the ball if you don't have
great outside receivers we've got
it and then we're just going to rely on dinking and
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dunking in the passing game and trying to run power out of these shotgun sets
I mean I don't I guess it's not impossible but it's certainly a suboptimal and
it's a far cry from the power run games we've seen the past several years especially
when you know Cade was running the outfits it's just probably the closest analogy
we have to at least recently.
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To Davis Warren. I did rewatch the game a few times every throw that Davis made.
He's throwing into a lot of tight double coverage.
Barely, really does a guy catch the ball in space with room to make a move.
We have to scheme up some wins in the passing game.
I think he finished 15 for 25, 125 yards. That's just not going to cut it.
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Not against these types of defenses we're going to be seeing.
We did see some on a good note. We did see the ground game get some success in the fourth quarter.
Really hope that's a sign of us figuring out some things heading into Texas.
You give this team a 2021-style run game like we had with Cade at quarterback
and at D and, of course, Hassan Haskins, Blake Corum.
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We can get to 10 wins and make the playoffs with this team. That's a big if, right?
You have to be able to run the ball and really dictate the tempo of the game
based on what we're able to do on offense.
If we don't have that, I think this team's staring down four to five losses
and really a pretty disappointing year considering the talent on this roster,
especially that defense.
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And I guess another thought is who would have thought A.J. Barner would have
been the loss that really hurts us?
He was such a strong player and a great in-line tight end.
Now that we don't necessarily have that, obviously Colston Loveland's amazing.
Definitely more of a receiving type than what Barner was. because I'm not quite
the blocker that Barnard was.
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Let's not forget, this Fresno State team is going to be a good team.
I think they're going to have a strong defense, but the fact that we couldn't
go under center and really try
to run the power run game, I think losing Barner is a big piece of that.
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Obviously, you lose all your offensive line starters. That plays a part, too.
But I do wonder, because you hear so much about Folsom level and obviously an
elite passing, catching tight end.
Marlon Klein, same type of thing. Do we have that guy that can go in and really
put us in that jumbo set where we should have been able to really push Fresno State around?
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And I do have some cautious optimism that this team's going to be okay.
The pieces we thought would be excellent are indeed excellent.
Let's not forget this Fresno team is likely a contender for a G5 payoff spot
in a Mountain West championship.
They have a lot of experience and some playmakers.
Let's also not forget last year's non-conference. The narrative is we can't
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run the ball. We can't cover the point spread.
Remember radio hosts saying that? This team can't even cover the spread.
Dogfights with Rutgers. The past few years, Illinois, even Washington,
2021, they had lost to an FCS team the week before, but the narrative coming
out of that game was, we can't pass the ball. How is this going to beat Ohio State?
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You've got to remember, the other teams are trying to win too.
And you don't have to look any further. You don't have to look outside of the big. Look at Oregon.
They were in a three-point game late with Idaho in the fourth quarter.
So let's get into the game preview. you. In walks the vaunted Texas Longhorns.
The line was three and a half, Texas minus three and a half all offseason. Seemed about right.
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That has ballooned and the last I saw currently it's Texas minus seven and a half.
On the road, all the pundits and talking heads I'm listening to are,
they're so down on Michigan after that Fresno State game.
One show had several guys dropped them behind USC to fifth in the big.
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And I don't know what is going to happen. No one does after just one week.
But I think this is a massive overcorrection in the market.
We did the show on Occam's Razor. If we're talking about Occam's Razor,
what's most likely to happen?
Michigan won a rather comfortable, not a dominant victory, but a comfortable
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victory against a team that's a contender in the Mountain West.
If that team was wearing Purdue black and gold, or if they had Illini across
their chest and were wearing orange and blue and we won 30-10,
heck, what if that team was Florida State we were playing and beat them 30-10?
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Would there be the same take?
One prediction I have is I think Fresno State, when it's all said and done,
the analytics, the fancy stats, if you will, They're going to see this team
as somewhere between 25th and 50th in the country.
A contender for the G5 playoff spot deep into the year.
And let's hope Michigan held some stuff back for Texas while playing their C-plus game.
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I don't think C-plus gets it done against Texas. I think we have to play our
A game and we have to bring it this week.
Texas, meanwhile, they're getting all this love and maybe rightfully so because
they They return their star QB, Quinn Ewers, great college quarterback.
No one's going to debate that. Will be in the running for the Heisman, very likely.
They have the offensive firepower, hot coach in Sark.
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I do remember the day where he couldn't get over the hump. Then last year happened.
Offense sells. Offense is sexy. People get excited for it.
The question, though, for Texas, and the question in this game is going to be
offense might, It would be exciting.
But does defense win? Because if it does, Michigan has that in bunches.
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Texas is also getting all the love. We've talked so much about Fresno State, ad nauseum.
Texas is getting so much love because they beat Colorado State 52-0 and looked
dominant in all phases of the game. But here's something to note.
In the preview, I talked a lot about SP+, one of the fancy analytic ratings.
Colorado State's currently 121st in SP plus.
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At his bottom of the barrel, it's hard to even schedule someone worse.
Some of these teams that played FCS teams would likely, those teams would go
in there and beat Colorado State, right?
We talked about Fresno State before the Michigan game.
I know it's not necessarily comparing apples to apples, it's apples and oranges,
but they were the 63rd ranked team.
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One of those is a real team that's competing, and the other is just there for a paycheck.
So yes, Texas in that game did what they were supposed to.
They looked amazing, but I don't think you're going to be able to extrapolate too much from that.
Also, what happens to Texas when a real team lines up from them?
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This is a team that at least this year hasn't seen that adversity.
Michigan has seen it. They were in a tight game in the second half against Fresno.
Also, let's not forget, Michigan does get this game at home in a noon slot where
they have played so well over the last several years. I think they're really going to settle in.
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But because Texas win was so dominant.
I wouldn't read that much into it. The passing offense for them,
it's going to be very strong. I think we know that. I don't think that's going out on a limb.
Quinn Ewers has experience. He has a win on the road last year against Alabama to his name.
I mean, that's a resume maker right there in and of itself.
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He's legit. He's going to show up. The moment's not going to be too big for him.
He was former number one recruit, one of the highest-rated recruited quarterbacks
of all time. I do, though, have some concerns about Texas' run offense.
They did okay versus Colorado State. They had Jadon Blue and Jarek Gibson over
50 yards apiece. They both averaged five yards per carry.
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But I don't think that's something that they're going to be able to establish against Michigan.
Obviously, they also, one of the things we have to bring up,
they had a few key injuries in the offseason and have them down their top two guys.
Also, they had a guy drafted in the NFL draft. So, right, they're down to their
really deforested running back if you compare it to what they were working with last year.
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They are Texas. They're going to have talent. They're going to have speed.
But I do want to point out Michigan's mother, Fresno's run game,
all game, they held them to nine total rushing yards.
I think it was like two yards per attempt.
The nine takes sacks into account.
You take those out at, I think it was like two yards per attempt or something
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like that. but Fresno just had no chance to run the ball.
Their top back was 14 attempts for 24 yards, and at that point,
you're just setting downs on fire, even trying.
A big key to this game for Michigan's defense, make Texas one-dimensional, right?
That's going to be a piece of this. If Texas is one-dimensional,
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you can start to key into some of those things that Sark's going to try to do
and scheme up. That's going to open up a lot for this defense.
The question then becomes, Can we handle their pass game?
Can we slow it down? Can we frustrate Quinn Ewers? I think this comes down to
Wink. I said this at the top.
Wink cannot blitz too much. If you're going to blitz 60-some percent of pass,
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whatever it was, pass attempts against Fresno. I guess it worked against Fresno.
The cover zero we all saw. It gave up the touchdown.
Hopefully that was just some posturing play.
And we throw a lot of different looks to try to confuse viewers.
We have some experience back there in Will Johnson, Kari Page, Quinton Johnson.
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We had three picks in one drive against Fresno State. I've never seen that before.
Can we get some stops and get off the field? That's really going to be the question.
I also think Texas, and this is an important point, I think they're also getting
a bump from the perception around the talent that they have.
I just listened to a national planet gushing over the spread and talent they
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have at the skill positions.
And look, this is a nuanced take that I'm about to make, but let's not forget
that Texas lost four offensive weapons in the first four rounds of the NFL draft, right?
Superstars, game changers like Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell,
Jonathan Brooks, Jatavian Sanders, a tight end.
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And look, I know it's Texas, how they recruit the guys they got in from the transfer portal.
They're going to have guys step up.
They're not going to be working with the bare cupboard just about ever.
But losing all four of those guys and you're down your top two running backs
coming into the year, this isn't a loaded roster like what we've been facing
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going up against Ohio State, where at any given time,
it seems like they have four five-star
future All-Pros, maybe Hall of Fame receivers trotting out there.
For example, Texas' number one receiver right now is likely,
or at least who they consider their number one receiver, is likely Isaiah Bond.
If you're a Michigan fan, that might sound familiar.
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Michigan just played him in the Rose Bowl when he was Bama's number two receiver.
They held him for four receptions for 47 yards.
Now, we're not looking at him as the number two receiver. He's going to draw Will Johnson.
When it's put in that perspective, right, that we just saw this guy a couple
games ago, and we were able to contain him, shut him down.
(30:07):
Now, all of a sudden, that receiving core doesn't draw the same amount of fear.
We've got to remember, Xavier Worthy's not out there.
You lose a player like Xavier Worthy and the explosiveness and the stress on
the D he brings, and then you lose your next four biggest weapons on offense.
I think Texas has some questions that they're going to need to answer with that talent.
(30:29):
Michigan's not the only team that's going to need to gel. Texas is going to
have to do that too, and I think they're going to have to do it.
In fact, I know for a fact they're not going to be able to just do it and get
by against the Colorado State defense.
They're going to have to do it against this Michigan defense on the road.
Do they have the game changers that are going to be able to overcome and win
their one-on-one matchups that they're going to find themselves in?
(30:51):
On the flip side, talking offense now, I think this all comes down to can we run the ball?
Colorado State's running back, Justin Marshall, had 25 attempts for 106 yards.
So it's a 4.2 yards per carry average.
Look, they lost 52-0. So yeah, that stat line, 106 yards, isn't mind-blowing performance-wise.
(31:16):
But considering Texas lost their top two interior linemen, Tavondre Sweat and
Byron Murphy, those two guys really drove their defense last year.
And we've seen this ourselves.
You have the dominant defensive tackles. It opens up so much for you.
So I think it's promising, or at least better than nothing if you're looking
for a hope heading into this game.
(31:38):
Ken Mullings, and I think we all agree he needs to be the workhorse at this
point. Can he get 25 carries for, let's say, 150 yards?
That's an average of six yards per carry, right in line with what he did last year.
Now all of a sudden we're talking. Now all of a sudden we can move the ball
and make something happen.
On top of that, maybe in line with opening up the offense a little bit, it.
(32:01):
Edwards is famous for his performance in big games. Can he break one?
Michigan's going to need that big game Don to show up like he has so many times.
National championship against Ohio State a couple of years ago.
He had the great run against Penn State last year in the bat game.
Be a nice time for Donovan Edwards to break one of those long runs he's so famous for.
(32:25):
I think it just goes into the next question. What line do we get?
Do we get that line in the fourth Florida that was leaning on Fresno,
opening the power run game.
We need it, right? We also better have a better game plan, one that can move the sticks.
It's likely Colston Loveland garners a lot of attention. Who else can step up
and take advantage of him potentially getting double coverage or getting all of that attention?
(32:49):
Who can make those plays? So to win this, I think Michigan Michigan has a very
simple recipe, and it's the same recipe they've used time and time again these past few years.
On defense, we need to stop the run. We need to slow down the pass.
They're going to make plays, but make them drive the field. Don't give up the
(33:09):
massive back-breaking plays.
And of course, like we said, they stop the run. You make them one-dimensional.
It makes defending the pass that much easier.
On offense, let's run the ball, let's grind them down, and thus,
by playing complementary football, get them pressing when they're on the offensive side.
That pressing leads to mistakes, and just like a boa constrictor.
(33:33):
Use their struggle against them.
And look, I'm risking sounding like a Michigan Slappy with this prediction.
I get it. I am a Michigan Slappy to some extent.
But listening to all of the over-corrections and the over-reactions,
it has me thinking that it's a great time to buy low on this team.
You watch the game right from the very beginning against Fresno State.
(33:56):
There were points where we looked dominant, like we could break that open. We looked fast.
All of our top talent and stars looked like that. Top talent and stars.
Mullings and Lublin, they looked the part.
Yes, there were concerns. I'm still concerned. There were mistakes that were sometimes glaring.
I mentioned those offensive line replays, having flashbacks now just thinking about them.
(34:22):
Those things kept the blowout from happening. But I don't think it's too much
of a stretch to go with the team in this game that has the dominant D early in the season,
at home, versus the team facing their first test on the road in a tough,
what for them will be an 11 a.m.
Texas start time. Obviously, noon local time in Ann Arbor.
(34:44):
I don't think it's a stretch to think that the defense can stuff the run and
keep this game close. Our D-line looks elite.
I think they're going to make Texas earn it. That combined with Will Johnson
and the pieces in the secondary line.
I think they can contain this tough Texas offense, especially because a lot
(35:05):
of that elite top-end talent is going to be playing the next day on Sunday.
I think that's a big factor. I guess technically Xavier Worthy is on the Chiefs.
He's playing as I record this.
The point still stands. I don't know if Texas has that top-end talent,
and when you think about it, I think there's pieces here that Michigan can exploit.
I think they're going to look a lot better than what people think.
(35:27):
From what I saw from Texas in Week 1, I think there's signs Michigan will be
able to pound the rock with Mullings, get some things done.
I think they're going to open up the playbook a bit and look better on offense.
And I do think the warts remain to some extent. I don't think they're going away this season.
I think it's going to be a grind, but in a close game, I'm willing to side with
(35:52):
the run game and the defense and the special teams.
Zavada will help us capture some of the points from stalled drives. lives.
But I think the overreaction has been too severe. We saw Oregon struggle with Idaho.
Things like this happen in college football.
And I also have a suspicion that if we had more info about Fresno State and
(36:13):
Colorado State, like for example, they play on November 23rd.
What if that game was rescheduled and played week zero?
And we had that extra data point going into of this week
where Fresno lined up against Colorado State in week
zero and like Fresno State
beats them 44 to 10 or some other blowout are
we looking at this game completely different all right but based on the analytics
(36:38):
and what we think these teams are that's not really a far fetched prediction
for when those teams play I guess I'll be proven right or wrong November 23rd
but if Davis Warren hits either of his big passes the interception or the overthrow
where it seems It seems like Morris stopped running.
We win that game more comfortably. The narrative's different.
And it's a lot of woulda, coulda, shouldas.
(36:59):
And I get that Michigan has lost a lot from their national championship team last year.
And Texas also has their quarterback returning. But they also had 11 guys drafted,
including several legit difference makers. Five guys in the first two rounds.
So all that being said, Michigan wins this game 23-20. Go ahead and book it.
(37:22):
Call me the Michigan Slappy. I get it. I deserve it. But I think that's how
it's going to play out. Go Blue.
Music.
Music.
(00:18):
Welcome to the Jolly Goodfellow podcast. Of course, it's your host,
Jacob Akers, and I'm here to recap the Fresno State game, game one,
a 30 to 10 win by the Michigan Wolverines.
We'll get into that and also we'll do a preview of the Texas Longhorns and what
(00:38):
is going to be a colossal matchup.
And so starting with the Fresno State game.
So, yeah, that happened, I guess.
I do feel like I should maybe do some bragging. I did predict the score pretty
close. I think it was at 31-7.
It turns out to be 30-10.
I did say the win would feel a little lackluster. It leaves some fans wanting more fireworks.
(01:05):
Although, if we're being fair, Will Johnson did provide some fireworks at the
end there with that pick six.
I did warn everyone, don't get the panic button because Fresno State, they are a real team.
They were coming into this game thinking they could compete,
thinking they could win, and they tried to show out, and they did well.
(01:25):
They played well. They didn't roll over at any point.
The broadcast kept showing how they were 4-4 against top 25 teams,
and I know they have a streak of beating Big Ten teams the past several years.
That was a pretty good team that Michigan beat, and I don't think we can lose
sight of that. I think that defense had some returning defensive tackles and
(01:49):
is going to end up being better than what we thought they were.
On offense, their quarterback looked strong.
I want to say great, but I think he's a Mountain West guy that's returning.
He's, as we saw, the king of the dink and dunk offense, which they had a lot of success with.
So props to Mikey Keeney. He did an amazing job.
(02:10):
That was a good Fresno State team.
But knowing all of that, really, like I said, kind of predicting such a performance.
Why does the situation feel so dire, so gloomy, especially heading into a colossal
matchup against Texas, right?
You expected this to happen, so why doesn't it feel so great?
(02:36):
Digging in there, I think for one, Texas came out, if you followed their game
at all, and they totally handled a bad Colorado State team.
And in any facet of the game you want to look at, Texas looked strong.
They looked great all around.
They looked a part of the top five team.
No ifs, ands, or buts about it.
(02:58):
For us, on the other hand, and watching the game, the way the opening drive
started were fantastic.
We looked like we were shot out of a cannon. We were playing fast and aggressive.
We got the pick on D and then went right down and scored.
And it seemed at least for those few minutes, like this team wasn't going to miss a beat.
(03:19):
And then we did the weaknesses and the concerns that I think everyone had heading
into the season really started to show through.
And so let's talk through this first. Let's start with the good.
I think that's a good place to start.
This, this defense is going to be great. We did blitz and we blitzed a lot.
I think it was something like 65% of passing plays or something like that.
(03:43):
Definitely a different feel from the previous years where we faked a lot of
blitzes, but we ended up showing that amoeba front and then dropping back.
We'll see how that plays out, but hopefully this was just Wink Martindale's
way of giving Texas some things to think about and we pivot.
I like to give credit where credit's due to my sources. I was reading an article on Emgo blog.
(04:05):
If you don't go there, if you're listening to this you probably do but if you
don't I can't recommend their analysis enough,
they charted out the plays and the plays
will be rushed four on defense we're giving up something like two yards per
play that's an amazing metric right you only get up two yards per play you're
(04:26):
seeing a ton of success on D that is shut down lockdown defense on plays that we rushed more
than four so five plus I think we're giving up something
like eight yards per play now I'm sure there's some
noise there in the data that's not going
to always play out like that Fresno State was a dink and dunk offense and so
the quarterback's only going to take a quick drop two seconds and out the blitz
(04:51):
isn't going to be effective so I would take that data with a grain of salt but
I think it's very you know it shows all the concerns people have with let's not blitz It's too much.
We have the defensive line where we're going to get home to the quarterback anyways.
Let's trust our secondary. Give them a few extra guys. Give them some help.
Let's not give up the big plays.
(05:12):
And I did say like heading into Texas game, I hope that we pivot.
And I think that brings up a good point. And you hear this a lot in any analysis
around this upcoming Texas game.
And I don't know if every fan base does this. I think they do to some extent,
but Michigan in particular always has this lore that we're saving our big plays
and our tricks for the big games.
(05:34):
We don't want to show too much. We got Ohio state up at the end of the year,
right? We're going to pull out this wrinkle or we're going to pull out this trick play.
Sometimes that happens. We do see those wrinkles, right?
QB keeps on the read option, things like that. Other times those wrinkles never come to fruition.
So anyone that thinks we're just going to walk into Texas and,
(05:54):
you know, pedal to the metal, show them a bunch of things they haven't seen.
I'm sure there's some of that, but even the coaching staff has to be thinking
that on some level, but to think all of that stuff is just going to come out to come to fruition.
I think that's maybe some, some wishful thinking. you
know so there's a lot of talk about saving things for Texas we'll see
(06:16):
no one really knows it it's a convenient thing because
if you cover this team you can always say well we're saving this
for Texas now that being said back to the game analysis the D line was as advertised
it's going to make life tough for anyone that we play Will Johnson of course
is Will Johnson there was some
weirdness there before the exclamation point pick six at the end had a
(06:40):
couple of plays where the guy got behind him, gave up some big plays.
One was like, should have been a touchdown, but the QB couldn't connect with the receiver.
Um, I think we'll Johnson's going to be fine. He's one of the best players in
the country for a reason.
And I, the substitution, it was really what I was speaking to in terms of the weird part. I, I.
For a second, you thought, is this guy hurt? What's going on?
(07:02):
Is he on the coach's bad side?
And it turns out they just were rotating people. I understand the depth.
I understand the play there. They did that a ton last year.
And it really paid dividends for them. And long-term, I can see why you do that,
but keep Will Johnson out there, right?
Let's get up by a few touchdowns on these guys before we start rotating and
taking out our best players.
(07:24):
And one thing I mentioned in the preview to Fresno State, I do think this team
will be like UNLV was last year.
They're going to go on to be a successful team. I do think this win will look
a lot better in retrospect.
UNLV last year, we beat them soundly, if not spectacularly, and they ended up
going on and having a successful year playing in the Mountain West championship game.
(07:49):
I wouldn't be surprised if Fresno State does that. I wouldn't be surprised if
Fresno State wins the Mountain on the list.
I wouldn't be surprised if there's a G5 team in the playoff,
to be quite honest with you.
If that's the case, how much better does this win look?
Our special teams in kicking game, Zavada looks like an amazing weapon.
I'm going to coin what I think is a new football term. It's usually for basketball,
(08:11):
but I think this is going to be a 3 and D type team.
Play amazing defense and then play for the long field goals.
I think we're going to see a lot of them this year based based on what we saw from the offense.
Speaking of the offense, Loveland and Mullings, they're the real deal.
Loveland is a matchup nightmare, was an amazing security blanket for our quarterbacks.
(08:32):
Mullings, when he gets going, he is so, so tough to bring down.
The concerns. Let's talk about the concerns. I think you have to realistically
downgrade the quarterback, the receiving crew, and the offensive line expectations.
All of them seemed decent, if not exceptional.
(08:52):
I'm not saying time to panic, but some of the things you hope to see just didn't
play out. I think they could all grow over the year.
I don't know if they'll gel, especially the offensive line. to be where we need
them to be, to be truly successful.
I think they do. The offensive line probably has the best chance of really figuring it out.
(09:15):
But until that drive in the fourth quarter, they weren't the maulers where you'd hope to see.
And the way NBC was showing some of these replays, it was pretty embarrassing,
some of the missed assignments and pass protection and short yardage.
There was a play where Gediz, the guy just got lower than him,
put him on roller skates, just pushed him right back into the backfield.
(09:36):
Elhadi missed a block, was caught on camera looking around. I would not want
to be him in the film room.
I'm sure Coach Moore had some choice words for him.
And so, I mean, I think you expect some of that given game one,
five new guys. I do think some of that can be fixable.
(09:56):
That being said, some of those were just embarrassing misses.
So we need to see a lot more of what we saw in the fourth quarter when we were
able to mull it with mullings and a lot less than what we saw in the other three quarters.
The wide receivers are just not exceptional.
I think there is a path to this being an average group.
(10:17):
And I said this in the preview there, but that's mostly based on the weapons around them.
I think Loveland, and if we can use Edwards in a way where he's explosive,
if Morgan, they tried to target him and do some things with them,
didn't really break out.
If he He can be explosive and be someone that you scheme open and get some big plays with.
(10:38):
I think there are some pieces in Morris and some of these other guys,
but you can't afford drops.
And if this turns into just a dink and dunk offense where we aren't scheming
guys open and the receivers just can't do anything, this team's going to be
in trouble, at least based on the scheme that we saw play out against Fresno State.
And I think that does get me to the biggest concern. And here's where I'll cover the quarterbacks.
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And it's not necessarily all on the quarterbacks. I think that this team is
going to resemble a poor man's Penn State from last year.
And I think I said in the preview, we could be a rich man's Penn State.
Right now, what we're looking at is a great D and just nothing on offense.
Afraid to throw the ball more than five yards downfield. We didn't see any creativity, no explosiveness.
(11:23):
This at one point in the fourth quarter davis warren
had 23 attempts for 100 yards four
thirds an attempt i'm sorry that's just not going to get it done and
maybe we were saving things and we come out with a better scheme we've seen
this over the past few years where you know you don't want to panic from one
poor performance but it seemed to be almost a scheme change right like a different
(11:47):
offenses run out there and that's my biggest concern is can we optimize the pieces we have
on this offense fully weaponize them can we
find a cohesive way to move the football and play
what has become a hot term around these parts complementary football the qb
back and forth that we saw orgy getting in on random plays second and long right
(12:10):
traditionally passing downs it's not working it's not fooling anyone neither
the quarterbacks can get into a rhythm them.
So, I mean, let's talk orgy. I think a lot's being made of his one pass out
into the flat that he threw into the ground and landed five yards in front of the receiver.
You know, I wasn't in the big house, but you can almost hear the audible gasp
(12:32):
from the crowd like, oh, that's not good.
I'm not so concerned about the one pass. I do think it's probably bellwether
for what he does and why he's not starting.
I'm just wondering if he gets that same throw 10 times though,
a short pass to the flats, how many times does he hit it?
(12:52):
Is it eight out of 10? Or is it five out of 10?
Like if this guy can't hit that seven or eight times out of 10,
then he can't play quarterback.
And we don't know the answer to that question. Only the coaches and the players
on that team, that locker room do know that.
But can this guy make the routine throws to be a serious quarterback and keep
(13:13):
the defense honest, or can he not?
And if he can't, then let's move on.
Use him as an offensive weapon, or a G-cat if you will, but the random every
series play needs to stop.
We need to use him as a goal line weapon, maybe third and fourth and short.
And what's really concerning is if he can't make those, we need to fully,
(13:35):
if he can't make those, it makes you wonder, were we being gaslit all offseason?
Orgy's the guy. So many people are saying that. Maybe that was just coming from
the fan base. Maybe the coach is like, I don't know where you got that from.
But it seems like there were serious efforts to make this work.
And if he can't hit those throws, then that's a serious problem.
(13:58):
And we've probably set the team back and put ourselves into a quarter by having
to run an offense that suits his skills, but we don't have his skills out there
because he can't make the throws.
Now, if he can make the throws, we need to fully weaponize this guy.
Give him some throws, create a real offense that utilizes his skills.
He had one read option where he held the mesh point before pulling the ball,
(14:21):
wide open path, right straight to 10 plus yards.
That's what we need. If we do that 10 times in this game, it's a different offensive performance.
Add in some of the Denard era, let's fake run towards the line of scrimmage,
then pull up and pass downfield to a wide open player with no one within 50 yards of him.
There's ways to scheme him some easy throws that keeps the defense honest while
(14:46):
adding some explosives.
Regardless, that only happens if you take the training wheels off.
If he's going to be out there, you've got to take the training wheels off.
If we can't take the training wheels off, then I think that tells you what we
need to know if he can play or not.
And honestly, I have the same opinion of Davis Warren.
If this guy is our QB, if he beat out Orgy, if he beat out Tuttle,
(15:09):
obviously Tuttle, the injury concerns or whatnot, if this guy's our quarterback, let's use him.
The scouting report is that this guy can run probably a step or two slower than
JJ, but it's still a weapon.
Let's run some real read option. QB injuries and all that, I hear you.
But we've been sold that we have three legit guys that can play quarterback for this team.
(15:34):
We didn't bring any transfers in from the portal.
If this team's going to hit a ceiling, we have to let them play and at least
add another dimension or threat to another dimension to this offense.
Last year, we were dominant enough to only pull the QB run out occasionally in the biggest moments.
This year, we need more of that spark. We need more of the explosiveness.
(15:58):
We need to give the defense something else to think about. And that goes the
same for downfield shots.
We did throw some against Fresno. Obviously, we had the pick and we had the
one that Tyler Morris pulled up on. But we have to keep attacking.
We were trying to out dink and
dunk the dink and dunk Fresno State offense and it just wasn't working.
All that being said, what's maybe the most concerning for me is the shotgun
(16:22):
running game reminded me so much of the Shea Patterson, Josh Gaddis,
speed and space era, where the offense was always just missing something.
If we can go under center, if we can get big, if we can maul in the run game,
especially with Mullings, that is our best shot at success.
(16:43):
Sprinkle in the QB keeps, play action passes, grind the other team down while playing great D.
All of that is dependent on if this line can open holes in the ground game or not.
I'm not saying, you know, zero shotgun, you know, modern football,
every team's going to have shotgun packages.
But going back to that successful running game where we're pounding the rock
(17:05):
is what gave us success these past three years.
And seeing us really depart from that and so So many four wide receiver sets.
I don't think it's going to pan out great. I alluded to this earlier,
but I do wonder if they back themselves into a corner planning to play orgy.
They built the shotgun spread option type attack under the assumption that orgy would be the guy.
(17:30):
You spend all this time and you invest an opportunity cost on this offense to
build the spread option with the real QB running threat.
At did we lose did that opportunity
cost mean because we spent so much time on
the running game on the spread option qb run
that we lost our ability to go under center and run the
(17:51):
ball i think time will tell on this but the
spread shotgun formations are great when you have that mobile
quarterback we've all seen that but unless
you have an elite running quarterback back or a
guy that can throw the ball if you don't have
great outside receivers we've got
it and then we're just going to rely on dinking and
(18:13):
dunking in the passing game and trying to run power out of these shotgun sets
I mean I don't I guess it's not impossible but it's certainly a suboptimal and
it's a far cry from the power run games we've seen the past several years especially
when you know Cade was running the outfits it's just probably the closest analogy
we have to at least recently.
(18:34):
To Davis Warren. I did rewatch the game a few times every throw that Davis made.
He's throwing into a lot of tight double coverage.
Barely, really does a guy catch the ball in space with room to make a move.
We have to scheme up some wins in the passing game.
I think he finished 15 for 25, 125 yards. That's just not going to cut it.
(18:56):
Not against these types of defenses we're going to be seeing.
We did see some on a good note. We did see the ground game get some success in the fourth quarter.
Really hope that's a sign of us figuring out some things heading into Texas.
You give this team a 2021-style run game like we had with Cade at quarterback
and at D and, of course, Hassan Haskins, Blake Corum.
(19:19):
We can get to 10 wins and make the playoffs with this team. That's a big if, right?
You have to be able to run the ball and really dictate the tempo of the game
based on what we're able to do on offense.
If we don't have that, I think this team's staring down four to five losses
and really a pretty disappointing year considering the talent on this roster,
especially that defense.
(19:41):
And I guess another thought is who would have thought A.J. Barner would have
been the loss that really hurts us?
He was such a strong player and a great in-line tight end.
Now that we don't necessarily have that, obviously Colston Loveland's amazing.
Definitely more of a receiving type than what Barner was. because I'm not quite
the blocker that Barnard was.
(20:02):
Let's not forget, this Fresno State team is going to be a good team.
I think they're going to have a strong defense, but the fact that we couldn't
go under center and really try
to run the power run game, I think losing Barner is a big piece of that.
(20:23):
Obviously, you lose all your offensive line starters. That plays a part, too.
But I do wonder, because you hear so much about Folsom level and obviously an
elite passing, catching tight end.
Marlon Klein, same type of thing. Do we have that guy that can go in and really
put us in that jumbo set where we should have been able to really push Fresno State around?
(20:47):
And I do have some cautious optimism that this team's going to be okay.
The pieces we thought would be excellent are indeed excellent.
Let's not forget this Fresno team is likely a contender for a G5 payoff spot
in a Mountain West championship.
They have a lot of experience and some playmakers.
Let's also not forget last year's non-conference. The narrative is we can't
(21:12):
run the ball. We can't cover the point spread.
Remember radio hosts saying that? This team can't even cover the spread.
Dogfights with Rutgers. The past few years, Illinois, even Washington,
2021, they had lost to an FCS team the week before, but the narrative coming
out of that game was, we can't pass the ball. How is this going to beat Ohio State?
(21:34):
You've got to remember, the other teams are trying to win too.
And you don't have to look any further. You don't have to look outside of the big. Look at Oregon.
They were in a three-point game late with Idaho in the fourth quarter.
So let's get into the game preview. you. In walks the vaunted Texas Longhorns.
The line was three and a half, Texas minus three and a half all offseason. Seemed about right.
(22:00):
That has ballooned and the last I saw currently it's Texas minus seven and a half.
On the road, all the pundits and talking heads I'm listening to are,
they're so down on Michigan after that Fresno State game.
One show had several guys dropped them behind USC to fifth in the big.
(22:21):
And I don't know what is going to happen. No one does after just one week.
But I think this is a massive overcorrection in the market.
We did the show on Occam's Razor. If we're talking about Occam's Razor,
what's most likely to happen?
Michigan won a rather comfortable, not a dominant victory, but a comfortable
(22:42):
victory against a team that's a contender in the Mountain West.
If that team was wearing Purdue black and gold, or if they had Illini across
their chest and were wearing orange and blue and we won 30-10,
heck, what if that team was Florida State we were playing and beat them 30-10?
(23:02):
Would there be the same take?
One prediction I have is I think Fresno State, when it's all said and done,
the analytics, the fancy stats, if you will, They're going to see this team
as somewhere between 25th and 50th in the country.
A contender for the G5 playoff spot deep into the year.
And let's hope Michigan held some stuff back for Texas while playing their C-plus game.
(23:29):
I don't think C-plus gets it done against Texas. I think we have to play our
A game and we have to bring it this week.
Texas, meanwhile, they're getting all this love and maybe rightfully so because
they They return their star QB, Quinn Ewers, great college quarterback.
No one's going to debate that. Will be in the running for the Heisman, very likely.
They have the offensive firepower, hot coach in Sark.
(23:52):
I do remember the day where he couldn't get over the hump. Then last year happened.
Offense sells. Offense is sexy. People get excited for it.
The question, though, for Texas, and the question in this game is going to be
offense might, It would be exciting.
But does defense win? Because if it does, Michigan has that in bunches.
(24:16):
Texas is also getting all the love. We've talked so much about Fresno State, ad nauseum.
Texas is getting so much love because they beat Colorado State 52-0 and looked
dominant in all phases of the game. But here's something to note.
In the preview, I talked a lot about SP+, one of the fancy analytic ratings.
Colorado State's currently 121st in SP plus.
(24:39):
At his bottom of the barrel, it's hard to even schedule someone worse.
Some of these teams that played FCS teams would likely, those teams would go
in there and beat Colorado State, right?
We talked about Fresno State before the Michigan game.
I know it's not necessarily comparing apples to apples, it's apples and oranges,
but they were the 63rd ranked team.
(25:01):
One of those is a real team that's competing, and the other is just there for a paycheck.
So yes, Texas in that game did what they were supposed to.
They looked amazing, but I don't think you're going to be able to extrapolate too much from that.
Also, what happens to Texas when a real team lines up from them?
(25:21):
This is a team that at least this year hasn't seen that adversity.
Michigan has seen it. They were in a tight game in the second half against Fresno.
Also, let's not forget, Michigan does get this game at home in a noon slot where
they have played so well over the last several years. I think they're really going to settle in.
(25:42):
But because Texas win was so dominant.
I wouldn't read that much into it. The passing offense for them,
it's going to be very strong. I think we know that. I don't think that's going out on a limb.
Quinn Ewers has experience. He has a win on the road last year against Alabama to his name.
I mean, that's a resume maker right there in and of itself.
(26:03):
He's legit. He's going to show up. The moment's not going to be too big for him.
He was former number one recruit, one of the highest-rated recruited quarterbacks
of all time. I do, though, have some concerns about Texas' run offense.
They did okay versus Colorado State. They had Jadon Blue and Jarek Gibson over
50 yards apiece. They both averaged five yards per carry.
(26:26):
But I don't think that's something that they're going to be able to establish against Michigan.
Obviously, they also, one of the things we have to bring up,
they had a few key injuries in the offseason and have them down their top two guys.
Also, they had a guy drafted in the NFL draft. So, right, they're down to their
really deforested running back if you compare it to what they were working with last year.
(26:49):
They are Texas. They're going to have talent. They're going to have speed.
But I do want to point out Michigan's mother, Fresno's run game,
all game, they held them to nine total rushing yards.
I think it was like two yards per attempt.
The nine takes sacks into account.
You take those out at, I think it was like two yards per attempt or something
(27:09):
like that. but Fresno just had no chance to run the ball.
Their top back was 14 attempts for 24 yards, and at that point,
you're just setting downs on fire, even trying.
A big key to this game for Michigan's defense, make Texas one-dimensional, right?
That's going to be a piece of this. If Texas is one-dimensional,
(27:30):
you can start to key into some of those things that Sark's going to try to do
and scheme up. That's going to open up a lot for this defense.
The question then becomes, Can we handle their pass game?
Can we slow it down? Can we frustrate Quinn Ewers? I think this comes down to
Wink. I said this at the top.
Wink cannot blitz too much. If you're going to blitz 60-some percent of pass,
(27:51):
whatever it was, pass attempts against Fresno. I guess it worked against Fresno.
The cover zero we all saw. It gave up the touchdown.
Hopefully that was just some posturing play.
And we throw a lot of different looks to try to confuse viewers.
We have some experience back there in Will Johnson, Kari Page, Quinton Johnson.
(28:13):
We had three picks in one drive against Fresno State. I've never seen that before.
Can we get some stops and get off the field? That's really going to be the question.
I also think Texas, and this is an important point, I think they're also getting
a bump from the perception around the talent that they have.
I just listened to a national planet gushing over the spread and talent they
(28:35):
have at the skill positions.
And look, this is a nuanced take that I'm about to make, but let's not forget
that Texas lost four offensive weapons in the first four rounds of the NFL draft, right?
Superstars, game changers like Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell,
Jonathan Brooks, Jatavian Sanders, a tight end.
(28:57):
And look, I know it's Texas, how they recruit the guys they got in from the transfer portal.
They're going to have guys step up.
They're not going to be working with the bare cupboard just about ever.
But losing all four of those guys and you're down your top two running backs
coming into the year, this isn't a loaded roster like what we've been facing
(29:21):
going up against Ohio State, where at any given time,
it seems like they have four five-star
future All-Pros, maybe Hall of Fame receivers trotting out there.
For example, Texas' number one receiver right now is likely,
or at least who they consider their number one receiver, is likely Isaiah Bond.
If you're a Michigan fan, that might sound familiar.
(29:42):
Michigan just played him in the Rose Bowl when he was Bama's number two receiver.
They held him for four receptions for 47 yards.
Now, we're not looking at him as the number two receiver. He's going to draw Will Johnson.
When it's put in that perspective, right, that we just saw this guy a couple
games ago, and we were able to contain him, shut him down.
(30:07):
Now, all of a sudden, that receiving core doesn't draw the same amount of fear.
We've got to remember, Xavier Worthy's not out there.
You lose a player like Xavier Worthy and the explosiveness and the stress on
the D he brings, and then you lose your next four biggest weapons on offense.
I think Texas has some questions that they're going to need to answer with that talent.
(30:29):
Michigan's not the only team that's going to need to gel. Texas is going to
have to do that too, and I think they're going to have to do it.
In fact, I know for a fact they're not going to be able to just do it and get
by against the Colorado State defense.
They're going to have to do it against this Michigan defense on the road.
Do they have the game changers that are going to be able to overcome and win
their one-on-one matchups that they're going to find themselves in?
(30:51):
On the flip side, talking offense now, I think this all comes down to can we run the ball?
Colorado State's running back, Justin Marshall, had 25 attempts for 106 yards.
So it's a 4.2 yards per carry average.
Look, they lost 52-0. So yeah, that stat line, 106 yards, isn't mind-blowing performance-wise.
(31:16):
But considering Texas lost their top two interior linemen, Tavondre Sweat and
Byron Murphy, those two guys really drove their defense last year.
And we've seen this ourselves.
You have the dominant defensive tackles. It opens up so much for you.
So I think it's promising, or at least better than nothing if you're looking
for a hope heading into this game.
(31:38):
Ken Mullings, and I think we all agree he needs to be the workhorse at this
point. Can he get 25 carries for, let's say, 150 yards?
That's an average of six yards per carry, right in line with what he did last year.
Now all of a sudden we're talking. Now all of a sudden we can move the ball
and make something happen.
On top of that, maybe in line with opening up the offense a little bit, it.
(32:01):
Edwards is famous for his performance in big games. Can he break one?
Michigan's going to need that big game Don to show up like he has so many times.
National championship against Ohio State a couple of years ago.
He had the great run against Penn State last year in the bat game.
Be a nice time for Donovan Edwards to break one of those long runs he's so famous for.
(32:25):
I think it just goes into the next question. What line do we get?
Do we get that line in the fourth Florida that was leaning on Fresno,
opening the power run game.
We need it, right? We also better have a better game plan, one that can move the sticks.
It's likely Colston Loveland garners a lot of attention. Who else can step up
and take advantage of him potentially getting double coverage or getting all of that attention?
(32:49):
Who can make those plays? So to win this, I think Michigan Michigan has a very
simple recipe, and it's the same recipe they've used time and time again these past few years.
On defense, we need to stop the run. We need to slow down the pass.
They're going to make plays, but make them drive the field. Don't give up the
(33:09):
massive back-breaking plays.
And of course, like we said, they stop the run. You make them one-dimensional.
It makes defending the pass that much easier.
On offense, let's run the ball, let's grind them down, and thus,
by playing complementary football, get them pressing when they're on the offensive side.
That pressing leads to mistakes, and just like a boa constrictor.
(33:33):
Use their struggle against them.
And look, I'm risking sounding like a Michigan Slappy with this prediction.
I get it. I am a Michigan Slappy to some extent.
But listening to all of the over-corrections and the over-reactions,
it has me thinking that it's a great time to buy low on this team.
You watch the game right from the very beginning against Fresno State.
(33:56):
There were points where we looked dominant, like we could break that open. We looked fast.
All of our top talent and stars looked like that. Top talent and stars.
Mullings and Lublin, they looked the part.
Yes, there were concerns. I'm still concerned. There were mistakes that were sometimes glaring.
I mentioned those offensive line replays, having flashbacks now just thinking about them.
(34:22):
Those things kept the blowout from happening. But I don't think it's too much
of a stretch to go with the team in this game that has the dominant D early in the season,
at home, versus the team facing their first test on the road in a tough,
what for them will be an 11 a.m.
Texas start time. Obviously, noon local time in Ann Arbor.
(34:44):
I don't think it's a stretch to think that the defense can stuff the run and
keep this game close. Our D-line looks elite.
I think they're going to make Texas earn it. That combined with Will Johnson
and the pieces in the secondary line.
I think they can contain this tough Texas offense, especially because a lot
(35:05):
of that elite top-end talent is going to be playing the next day on Sunday.
I think that's a big factor. I guess technically Xavier Worthy is on the Chiefs.
He's playing as I record this.
The point still stands. I don't know if Texas has that top-end talent,
and when you think about it, I think there's pieces here that Michigan can exploit.
I think they're going to look a lot better than what people think.
(35:27):
From what I saw from Texas in Week 1, I think there's signs Michigan will be
able to pound the rock with Mullings, get some things done.
I think they're going to open up the playbook a bit and look better on offense.
And I do think the warts remain to some extent. I don't think they're going away this season.
I think it's going to be a grind, but in a close game, I'm willing to side with
(35:52):
the run game and the defense and the special teams.
Zavada will help us capture some of the points from stalled drives. lives.
But I think the overreaction has been too severe. We saw Oregon struggle with Idaho.
Things like this happen in college football.
And I also have a suspicion that if we had more info about Fresno State and
(36:13):
Colorado State, like for example, they play on November 23rd.
What if that game was rescheduled and played week zero?
And we had that extra data point going into of this week
where Fresno lined up against Colorado State in week
zero and like Fresno State
beats them 44 to 10 or some other blowout are
we looking at this game completely different all right but based on the analytics
(36:38):
and what we think these teams are that's not really a far fetched prediction
for when those teams play I guess I'll be proven right or wrong November 23rd
but if Davis Warren hits either of his big passes the interception or the overthrow
where it seems It seems like Morris stopped running.
We win that game more comfortably. The narrative's different.
And it's a lot of woulda, coulda, shouldas.
(36:59):
And I get that Michigan has lost a lot from their national championship team last year.
And Texas also has their quarterback returning. But they also had 11 guys drafted,
including several legit difference makers. Five guys in the first two rounds.
So all that being said, Michigan wins this game 23-20. Go ahead and book it.
(37:22):
Call me the Michigan Slappy. I get it. I deserve it. But I think that's how
it's going to play out. Go Blue.
Music.
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