Fed Cuts, Santa Rally, and Prediction Markets (EP. 19)

Joe and Smiddy close out the year with a wide-ranging conversation on what’s really driving market flows post-Fed. With the AI narrative losing steam, tech rotation accelerating, and volatility picking up into VIX expiry and OPEX, they dig into the psychology behind positioning, the reality of a “Santa rally,” and why skew and vol structure are flashing caution.

They also take a detour into the growing world of prediction markets — from political betting to crypto-fueled arbitrage — and reflect on what it says about risk-taking in today's environment.

 

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