Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Luba Nikulina, Head of Global Strategy for IFM Investors. She is responsible for leading the development of IFM’s global strategy with a focus on private markets solutions that meet the needs of Australian and global pension funds and their members. Luba has always thought in an orthogonal way, finding links between different factors in the economy and trying to apply a fre...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we dig through some "anecdata" to see what is driving global markets through white knuckle moments and back again.

We are forced to rely on "anecdata" due to the ongoing shortage of data due to the US government shutdown, so are missing official inflation figures and jobs data. Anecdotally, however, CEOs (Walmart in particular) are reporting that consumers remain resilient (notable give...

In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we discuss alarm bells - where we see them, whether we are finding them where none exist and what we can do about it, if anything. We are joined by former CIO of Royal Mail, Ian McKnight.

A few weeks ago, in a podcast with John Normand of Australian Super, we asked if the US economy was actually stronger than we thought, in that US GDP growth figures looked to be revised upwards and the...

In this podcast we feature snippets from our live conversation in San Francisco where we were joined by guests from across the venture capital, programming and fund management spectrum. Over coffee and donuts we debated:

Whether we feel a disconnect between the economic backdrop and the current equity market strength?

Whether there is a bubble in AI?

What inflation feels like on the ground?

It was a lively discussion with a...

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we focus on Memes and Milestones, in a week that has been filled with news of a government shutdown in the US, landmark deals and valuations and market highs.

The US government shutdown now is reaching its 3rd day, and has been punctuated with odd bursts of meme-ing involving Sombreros and Mariachi bands as partisan shots across the bough continue. This barely called a ripple in the equity ...

In today’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we dissect a busy week of news flow including a show down at the UN, growing tensions on the geopolitical front, growing indicators of economic strength and the continuation of the AI big-spending era. We are delighted to be joined by John Normand - Head of Investment Strategy for Australian Super. John's long history in investment strategy and asset allocation gives him a unique way of constr...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ask if the Fed has, through taking a "risk based" and "meeting by meeting" approach and making its first cut all year (25 bps) taken a "stitch in time" to avert economic disaster. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and it seems that the Fed is now switching to emphasize the employment side of its dual mandate.

Inflation around the world is not much better, with a rolling 3.8% in the ...

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we do some show and tell as we have a guest, Pablo Castro, who is an economic commentator and podcast host from Argentina, and we examine the recent election performance down there and compare the experience they have had to that of developed markets.

We start by analyzing the recent inflation numbers from the US and look at the converging soft indicators, whereby consumers are starting to e...

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast Labor is on our mind - as this was recorded just before the disappointing labor statistics were released in the US, showing essentially a summer slowdown and the addition of only 22,000 jobs. All eyes were on these figures as they are likely to serve as a permission slip for an interest rate cut later in the month, and perhaps give a more visceral read on an economy that continues to fire a set...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - entitled Fireworks and Firings - we kick off the holiday weekend in the US with an engaging discussion with Torsten Slok, Chief Economist of Apollo Group.

We start with a "vibe check" on the US economy - citing the consensus expectations for growth (falling but positive at around 1%) and inflation (stable and tending towards rising north of the magic 2% target - with consensus in the ...

In this week's short Markets Happy Hour Podcast, I round out a trip to South America by taking stock of the lessons from the "labs" on the ground here and what we can learn for Developed market economies wrestling with "more of the same".

We start by citing the 3.8% inflation surprise in the UK, and the cold water that that poured on interest rate cut expectations, which, when coupled with a sell off in the 30 UK Gilts (they re...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - subtitled - Notes from a Laboratory - I am recording from Buenos Aires, which has been described to me as like a "laboratory" for economic policy. However, we are talking much more about the global economic outlook here. As usual we start with inflation, where David shares caution regarding the recent inflation numbers in the US where persistent services inflation may have been masked by ...

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we reflect on 6 days spent in Chile, and the insights from a conversation with Jose Manuel Silva of LarrainVial Asset Management, who shared details of how Chile is responding to the current tariff environment.

It has been a week of much news flow - from the labor statistics surprise at the end of last week, which led to a flurry activity including the firing of the Head of the Bureau of La...

In today's Markets Happy Hour podcast we are recording in the middle of a flurry of trade news flow on the eve of the August 1 tariff deadline. We know, as we record, that the deadline has been extended by 90 days with respect to Mexico and much uncertainty is still in place. However the "twist" in the tale or the "plot twist" of the title refers to the subtle but perceptible change in how the US is being regarded in these trade ne...

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we tackle the mid-summer silly season in which an extraordinary number of "tall tales" and distractions seem to be flooding the zone. Our special guest this week is Jon Chesshire, Managing Principal of Sindia Capital, who is returning for his second appearance on the podcast.

One persistent theme is tariffs though, and in analyzing their impact on the economy we are increasingly focused...

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are delighted to be joined by Euan Munro, former CEO of Newton Asset Management and a well-known commentator on market conditions and multi-asset investing.

We start by reflecting on the slightly higher than expected inflation numbers in the US, ask "Will he stay or will he go?" with respect to the Fed Chairman, and analyze how markets have been mulling over this essential question - as ...

In today's slightly more compressed markets happy hour podcast it is all about tariffs again, and not only are tariffs (whether on copper imports or Brazil - both at 50%) at records again, but US policy is starting to change the course of international politics and not just foreign relations - for this, see Brazil.

Other news was a little lighter as the US press gave considerable coverage to the tragic flooding in central Texas....

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by frequent macro commentator Stephen Isaacs, who frequently appears on Bloomberg and other channels. He is an experienced Asian investor and former trader. He asks the question for the ages: Is US exceptionalism over or simply over-priced?

We cycle through our usual themes of inflation, economic indicators, interest rates, equity markets (and the sectors that are in focus...

Today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast comes to you from France, where I am attending my 25th year business school reunion. It would be fascinating to reflect on where the world economy was 25 year ago - I'll do that next week.

This week reflects on the fascinating chapter now being written after the storm (or after this storm), in which markets are rallying once more to all time highs, the dollar is at a 44 month low and bonds see...