Conversation with PA Political Reporter John Cole

In this episode of Next Gen PA, the hosts sit down with John Cole, political reporter for Pennsylvania Capital Star. They discuss the results of the recent primary election, the looming November Presidential election, and local issues on the State level.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
[Music]

(00:10):
Welcome to next-gen PA.
My name is Samuel Pimental.
And today I'm joined by co-host.
Michelle Angert.
And as well we're joined with the special guest today, John Cole.
He's a journalist for Penn Capital Star, as well as having worked
for the North East Times, politics PA and PCN,
reporting on many of the local, state, and federal elections in Pennsylvania.

(00:33):
He's a temple graduate and is based at the wonderful,
brotherly love city of Philadelphia.
So we are so grateful to have him here today.
And I'm just, I'm really excited to ask you some questions.
And actually, I'm excited to start by talking about your most recent article
on the bipartisan legislation that was passed through the House,

(00:54):
Agri Cultural and Rural Affairs Committee, which goal was to establish
a rural revitalization commission, which would help study the population
to climb scene in Pennsylvania rural communities.
And I'm curious to what you think the effects of a commission like this could look like.
And if it would help maybe raise awareness in the state to the

(01:16):
quarter population in rural areas.
So, first of all, thank you for having me. I appreciate joining you today.
That's an interesting piece of legislation.
So again, it was last week the House Agricultural and Rural Affairs Committee
announced that out of their committee in a bipartisan fashion,

(01:37):
they move forward a proposal that essentially they want to have a commission
to get a group of leaders together.
So elected officials and those leaders in the rural reasons of the state
essentially conduct a study to, I think in their mind,
try their best to essentially stop the, unfortunately,

(01:59):
rural parts of Pennsylvania right now.
You recognize that there is a population loss.
It is not keeping up with the more urban centers of the state.
And what that means for the future of rural Pennsylvania,
you know, there's projections by 2050, I mean,
the southeast region of the state in particular some of the rural areas,

(02:20):
the urban centers will be increasing population while the projections
conducted via, I think it was Penn State, mentioned that it looks like
the rural parts of the region will be losing population within that same time period.
So I think rural leaders on both sides of the aisle,
this is not just a Democrat or Republican issue.

(02:41):
This is something that rural leaders across the Commonwealth are trying to get
out ahead of it now.
They're already realizing that they're losing population as we speak,
not keeping up pace with the urban centers.
So I think their ultimate goal is that trying to get a collection of people
from, again, different industries, different levels of government
to try to have a dialogue to see what are the best practices to not only

(03:05):
keep rural Pennsylvania afloat, but make it thrive once again.
I'm curious as to if there have been any studies you're aware of
that have really come down to the root cause of this and whether this is just
a national movement of people moving to more urban centers or if there's
something specifically within the Commonwealth that could help explain
this population decline.

(03:27):
That's a very interesting question because they even alluded to it during the press conference
afterwards that this isn't just a Pennsylvania specific issue.
I think we realize, we recognize in rural parts of the country that this is happening.
So this isn't just a PA specific issue.
However, a commission like this, at least from what the representatives have said,

(03:48):
should this get across a finish line?
Because again, I want to just remind the audience that it's not as if
this commission is formally through yet.
It passed one House committee.
You know what I mean? There's multiple levels of government has to go through
to finally get across a finish line to become law.
So this is, again, as of now a proposal, but it did cross a hurdle.

(04:10):
Which was the House Agriculture and Royal Affairs Committee.
Their next goal, of course, would be to get it across the, for a vote in front of the
full House and to get passed there.
Then of course you need the Senate to approve it and then the governor to sign.
But thus far, since it's a bipartisan effort, I think, at least from those that were discussing it,
they seem rather optimistic.
And then they mentioned that, again, this is not just a PA specific issue,

(04:34):
but a commission like this should it happen.
They think there's not other states really doing this.
It seems like Pennsylvania maybe could be a model for other states.
Again, should this get across the finish line and be enacted?
And if it's successful, maybe other states will piggyback off of this to try to replicate it.
But again, that remains to be determined.
We're still, I would say somewhat growing in the process to see what kind of effects it will have.

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And should it actually get not formally approved?
This isn't really a topic I know too much about, but I'm wondering if they're looking at
like the education piece in that as well.
Because lots of school districts within especially rural parts of Pennsylvania are struggling
when it comes to providing good education for their students.
And I'm wondering if they're looking at that in tandem with other initiatives

(05:16):
to maybe keep people in the rural parts of Pennsylvania.
Yeah, so again, I can't speak from their perspective, of course, because I'm not one of the lawmakers on that.
But I will say to that point, education was discussed.
And just as though the pitch from them was that it wasn't just essentially one thing to look at.

(05:37):
I think it's a combination of issues.
If you want a region to thrive, whether it be urban, suburban, or rural,
you need a combination of sectors working together.
And I think education is an important piece to that.
I think if you want someone to stay in a certain part of the state,
you need to make sure that you have health care officials,
and you need to make sure you have enough health care provider, health care officials,

(06:00):
that make you want to stay in a region of the state.
You need those educated, so teachers, you need good schools to keep people in a certain region of the state.
And as well as business, you need to make sure you have local businesses as well
that are able to employ people to keep them in a specific area.
So I think education is certainly part of the puzzle.
I think again, it's a combination of issues that they want to address via this commission.

(06:24):
But education is one they specifically addressed by name.
So they did not ignore education and something that they want to view
and talk about as one of the lead issues for this commission.
As you mentioned, this was a bipartisan bill.
However, I am curious as to what challenges you foresee for this.
As again, we've seen a lot of bills come up and not go through.

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So I'm just curious what you think this specifically could run into issues with.
That's a really good question. I think it's still somewhat early enough in the process
to ultimately determine, again, what the exact hurdles will be.
But I can say, I think the reason why they're rather optimistic,
at least from the press conference, is that you had Republicans and Democrats alike

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speaking on behalf of this bill in one chamber.
For those who aren't familiar right now, the state house is a Democratic majority by just one.
They have a one-seat majority in this state house.
The state Senate is a Republican majority.
However, state Senator Jean Yol, who represents a rural county,
a rural section of the state, he also spoke positively about this legislation.

(07:34):
So it seems as though again you have both sides of the aisle seemingly agreeing on it.
I didn't say this was not unanimous just to be clear.
It's not as if every single member is going to vote on this and favor this necessarily.
But since it did pass with bipartisan fashion, you know, the chair,
the Democratic chair, and the Republican chair of that committee,
both talk about what they view as the main things they want to address with it.

(07:55):
And even if they may have different focuses, they both think that it's a commission that
they believe would certainly benefit the rural parts of the state.
To be determined on what the exact hurdles will be,
but I think as we know in government, there are so many issues going on.
So I think maybe one of the big hurdles could just be that there's so many issues they want to tackle.
That, you know, there's a lot on their plate.
It's, you know, they have to go one by one on some of these issues.

(08:18):
So we'll see how much they make it a priority.
That is something that I'll be interesting to monitor in the coming months is that,
will they take this up quickly?
Or will this be something maybe they think can wait a bit, tackle some other issues
that they view as more pressing, and then eventually tackle it?
You actually just kind of brought up something I want to transition into the next topic,
which is the election cycle.

(08:39):
You just brought up how there is only one seat majority in the House for Democrats.
So that really doesn't give it a feeling of we're going to have a one-sided House, right?
This is very much the selection.
It's at stake whether it will be Republican controlled or whether it be Democrat controlled.
And I'm curious due to the turnout of the primaries and the candidates elected,

(09:01):
I'm wondering if you see any patterns going to this November for what the new Pennsylvania State House could look like.
Yeah, so the primary election, I think you can take certain data from it and think maybe you can translate to the general.
But again, it's worth noting that in Pennsylvania, well, one let's start off with,
we have a closed primary system in which Democrats can vote in Democratic primaries.

(09:26):
If you're registered with Vulcan, you can vote in Republican primaries.
But if you're not registered with either major party,
so let's say you're registered independent, you can't vote in the Democratic primary or the Republican primary.
There's still a significant portion of the, you know, Pennsylvania's voting population that is not registered with either party.
So they didn't get a chance, I mean, they could have voted on other issues,
whether they were in their local township and let's say there was something on the ballot about a local ordinance.

(09:50):
They could vote on certain issues like that, but they weren't able to participate in the primary for whether it would be president, US Senate, and the statewide row offices.
So that's one thing I think it's worth noting where the voter turnout for this past primary was rather low in Pennsylvania in comparison to at least, you know,
previous presidential primary elections.
But I think a lot of pundits would agree that the main reason that the voter turnout was a little lower was because that essentially we already know who the two candidates are present are going to be.

(10:22):
President Joe Biden, although having a primary, you know, having, he was on the ballot and so was a Congressman Dean Phillips and, you know, others, you know, you could theory right in a candidate, but Biden is coasting towards the nomination as for the Democrats and then former president Donald Trump right now is at a point where he's also cruising to the Republican party nomination.

(10:43):
He had more challenges earlier the cycle, but they have since dropped out most the one new state in the longest was former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and she exited the race, I believe it was in.
I want to say early to I think early March, so I mean, it's been a while. So usually, you know, people aren't stood at the top of the ticket since the presidential primary was in competitive.

(11:04):
Either some people that stated home, they thought, you know, I'll wait till November. And even in other state wide race of importance is the US Senate race. Senator Bob Casey, a Democrat is seeking a fourth term in office.
He was the only Democrat on the primary ballot in Pennsylvania and the Republican is going to face is Dave McCormick and Dave was the only Republican on the primary ballot.

(11:29):
So the two in theory, the two offices that are the highest in the state, both parties essentially had their candidates are selected. So maybe that's a reason why I can't, I can't go into detail why every voter, why they decide to stay at home.
But that may be a reason I've seen from many pundits, explain why the voter turnout wasn't as high. I'd expect it to be higher November. So I think to your question about what we'll see in November, I'm pretty confident that we will have higher turnout that we will in the primary.

(11:58):
The 2020 election I'd rather high turnout in Pennsylvania. I'm expecting the same this time around because there's a bevy of races you have again, the presidential race between, again, looks very likely to be Biden against Trump.
Pennsylvania will be one of the most important swing states and if you look at various national ratings outlets like the Cook Political Report inside elections, these national ratings outlets, you know, they determine Pennsylvania is quote one of the toss up states.

(12:27):
So Democrats and Republicans seemingly both have are going all in for these states and you know, there's only 50 states in the country. There's only really a handful that are really considered toss up states because both parties seemingly think they have a real chance at winning it.
And of those quotes also states Pennsylvania is the most electoral votes on the line. So I think that's why both campaigns will be very heavily invested in Pennsylvania and I think that's why voter turnout will be higher for that.

(12:54):
The control of the US Senate is close. So I think Senator Casey's reelection bid should he lose I think Republicans would feel very good about their chance of retaking the Senate.
And then the US House, you know, is very close. Republicans have a majority in the US House, although it's a narrow one and then in Pennsylvania state government.

(13:15):
Republicans have a multiple seat lead, but Democrats are trying to flip that chamber and vice versa in the state house, only one seat majority. Now that's where it's much more interesting because it's only one seat margin.
Republicans are targeting several seats because they believe they cannot flip that chamber back in their control. And of course not so forget there are three other statewide offices that people can vote for attorney general, treasure and auditor general or on the ballot this time in 2024 as well.

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So there's a ton of races. So I really expect that the general election, you will see a high certainly a higher voter turnout in the primary over in the next few months. We will see what are the issues that will bring people to the polls.
Yeah, I was going to ask what do you think sort of as a reporter are going to be the top issues that you think voters are going to focus on and sort of cast their votes based on this election cycle.

(14:07):
Yeah, it's super interesting because the news cycle moves so quickly and what is a story today may not be a story in a few weeks to voters.
So I could at least speak to what we're seeing right now and what both sides of the aisle are discussing.
I think it's pretty evident that Republicans by and large have discussed inflation as a big talking point and they believe that the policies of the Biden administration have led to inflation and they think they are going to use their economic message as a pushback on that as well as I've seen a number of Republicans talk about crime as an issue as well.

(14:48):
I guess the border is something they've talked at length. They, you know, certain Republicans running for office are using border security as opposed as a rallying point.
On the Democratic side, they have stressed a lot about, so I'm going to think they're using the economy as well, but they believe economic numbers are rather strong and they think that could boost Biden's chances for a real election and help elect Democrats up and down the ballot.

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Another key difference I would say with Democrats, it's a rally to get voters to the polls is certainly abortion rights.
We've seen this. I've covered a number of events this year in Pennsylvania and there's going to be only more as time goes on.
And when Democrats are speaking about the 2024 election, they often talk about abortion rights.
So I think that's something where Republicans, I can tell you this, when I've covered Republicans running for statewide office and even Trump, when they're doing their stump speeches, they often don't talk about road view way being overturned.

(15:47):
They often don't talk about abortion as an issue. Democrats are very much making it an issue.
They think front and center that they believe will help drive voters to the polls. So they're the ones right now, it's a look at, but again, just to stress, you know, as time goes forward, different issues arise.
You know, I actually, I'll give you this one side note.

(16:08):
Back in 2020, I remember first joining the pen live, Battleground PA podcast in 2020. I believe it was February.
So the first time I joined their podcast, they had the exact discussion of what are the issues people were carrying about in 2020?
And I remember vividly, I said Republicans were talking about the economy. They believe that Trump's economy was doing well and they're going to hammer that home.

(16:33):
Democrats at that time were talking about health care. They really stressed that they thought the affordable care actors under attack from the Trump administration.
They believe that was a good rally point.
And then a few weeks after we recorded that podcast, the coronavirus pandemic broke out. And then those issues we thought would be about the economy and health care.
Seemingly after the coronavirus pandemic, so you know, broke out and was center stage American politics, that kind of became the number one story in America.

(16:59):
So I think right now, again, I think we're seeing, you know, the economy inflation, the border abortion rights.
They're the main ones I would say right now, but again, let's not forget that in a few months, you know, there's other international affairs that might play into the election.
There might be other issues that happen. But as of now, it's either the main driving factors for this upcoming election.

(17:20):
One thing you mentioned is foreign affairs. And as we know, some of Biden's current positions on what's going on in Israel and Palestine is very unpopular.
And states like Michigan, it's seen people are afraid it's going to have a huge effect as the Muslim population helped Biden to win that state in 2020.

(17:41):
I'm wondering if we could see an effect like that in Pennsylvania, where Biden may potentially lose the state due to his position on that conflict.
It's something that it's very much worth monitoring because I talk to, so I'm sure there are those in the audience that are familiar that even though Biden is coasting to the Democrats,
coasting to the Democratic nomination, there are those who have been urging Democrats to insert states right on their primary ballot instead of voting for Biden, right in, quote, uncommitted essentially as a protest vote over his policies, his administrations, I guess policies that are ongoing war.

(18:18):
I had the chance to talk to a few Democrats since the primary election and I asked like from what you saw in Pennsylvania, are you concerned about these voters staying at home?
And I actually even asked specifically state senator Shreef Street, he's the chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.
And I asked him about, like, you know, are you worried about, again, to those voters in toward registered Democrat who decide to not vote for Biden the primary, even though he was on a post.

(18:46):
Is that a cause for concern? And he essentially told me he was not, he believes that when push comes to shove in November, those voters will not stay at home in a getting his mind.
Senator Shreef told me he thinks when when it's Biden Trump on the ballot, he seems to think that those Democratic voters will come home.
That remains to be seen, of course, I don't have the answer to that, but at least I can say talking to the state party chair, they think that those voters, you know, they're, they are certainly not in favor of what, you know, they may be, they have concerns with,

(19:15):
what the Biden administration is doing there right now. They think when it's ultimately between Biden Trump, they will vote for Biden.
And however, on that note, it's kind of interesting how, even though Trump, again, won Pennsylvania's Republican primary with relative ease, Nikki Haley was still on the ballot.
And she did rather well in like some parts of like the fully solvered, even though she dropped out a while ago, she registered double digits.

(19:39):
And she's been out of the race for a while. And I actually had the chance to talk to the repensalment of your Republican party chairman Lawrence Davis two days after the Pennsylvania primary.
There was an event in Delaware County, which is in the Philadelphia suburbs. And I asked Davis,
somewhat of a similar question to Senator Street, since they both lead their respective parties in the state. And I asked Chairman Davis, I'm like, look, you had a, you know, the Haley's been out of the race for a while.

(20:08):
And there was still double digits. She still racked up double digits in some of these high population, these densely populated, some of them are Philadelphia.
And I asked the gazette reason to be concerned. He's like, now again, primary voters will cast their vote now, but when it comes to Biden and Trump,
he believed that Trump, the Republican voters will ultimately rally around Trump. So it's an interesting phenomenon that we're seeing on both sides of the aisle, at least that during the primary, you know, even though Biden and Trump are both going to very likely face each other.

(20:37):
And they were essentially the only main candidates on the ballot in Pennsylvania for the primary. There were still a section of voters on both sides that said, I don't want to vote for either.
But both, and I asked both parties chairs about it on election day specifically talked to Senator Street, and then two days after I talked to Chairman Davis, and they both kind of gave me similar answers.
They both said push comes the show they believe their party their voters will come on home.

(20:59):
That remains to be seen, but at least they're expressing that optimism to reporters.
Yeah, I'm wondering if you did you ask them anything about third party candidates, you know, specifically like RFK Junior, did they say similar things where they think it'll impact the other party and not our party?
Yeah, it's interesting. So I think the Robert Kennedy, yeah, that's an interesting angle as well, because there's been pulling out there where I'm sure we, you know, again, polling is just a, you know, like a, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's like a screenshot time where you, you post a poll one week and then a few weeks later that poll and theory is outdated.

(21:32):
But one thing has been pretty certain as we look through the past few months, Biden and Trump have been consistently close. There may be some polls or binds up in Pennsylvania and there's some more Trump's up.
But I think the one big takeaway is their close and when you have potential third party candidates can play, I don't know spoilers, the right word, but they can have an impact.

(21:53):
Think about how close the margins were in Pennsylvania in 2016 and 2020 less than a hundred thousand votes in both times. I believe it was 40 some thousand in 2016 and in 2020 was around 80 some thousand.
And you know, if you have a third party candidate with a high enough name ID, whether it be a Robert F. Kennedy junior or how no Jill Stein or someone else, they can take votes away.

(22:18):
The question is how many will they take and nothing is very worth mentioning to the audience is that we don't know what third party candidates are going to be on the primary ballot yet. They have to make the ballot.
There's, you know, just we've got one day and say I'm running for president. I will be on the primary ballot. They need to get enough signatures and clear certain hurdles.
The Biden and Trump operation are certainly going to have zero issue getting on the ballot in Pennsylvania. But there's third party candidates, they need to go across the state and get voters to sign on to their petitions to get on the ballot.

(22:49):
So that is something I'm really interested to see one who does, you know, what third party candidates make it because they don't get enough signatures, they don't make it so they can run their campaign.
If they're not on the primary ballot or not receiving on the general election ballot, they're less likely to have a role in determining, I guess, you know, playing a spoiler role for Trump or Biden.

(23:11):
But if they get on the ballot, there's been polling that showed, I mean, there's some polls I saw recently, I think it was frank and a marshal up a two ago that had Kennedy registering, I think, like eight or nine percent, I mean, which is not insignificant in a state like a swing state like Pennsylvania.
That was, you know, let's say a roll or march, these things can change and we don't know if Kennedy will be on the ballot.

(23:32):
But they very well, a third party candidate, very well can play a role because those margins are expected to be narrow in Pennsylvania.
And I think both parties recognize they need to, they can't ignore the third party candidates. I think both parties are going to again, they're optimistic that the Democrats, you know, the Democrats are optimistic that Democrats are going to rally around Biden when the time comes in Republicans,

(23:54):
they feel the same way about Trump. But I think it's a dynamic that is worth monitoring because, again, Pennsylvania expected to be closed. These third party candidates can play a role in ultimately determining who wins the 19 electoral votes in Pennsylvania.
I do want to ask, as it sounds like you've had multiple conversations with party leadership from both sides, specifically on the Robert Kennedy issue, is there any feeling of which side is more afraid of him or where he's going to take votes away from?

(24:23):
As is policies, it's very across the board. And I think it's kind of a unknown factor compared to say someone like Jill Stein, where it's fairly obvious where she's going to take from.
That's a great point because you're right. So Jill Stein being in the green party, we understand she's more apt to take from progressive voters, maybe some Democrats who don't believe that Biden's progressive enough perhaps.

(24:45):
Very unlikely that a Republican will be, I mean, it's possible, but I don't think it's as likely a Republican is going to cast a protest vote for Jill Stein.
Kennedy, you're right, is running this interesting campaign where he's a life, I mean, he was a Democrat most of his life. And I'm pretty sure when he originally announced for president, he did it as a Democrat and then he got out of the Democratic primary and then rise and independent.

(25:08):
I think both parties are cognizant that he could take away from both. So I think Davis, chairman Davis from the Republicans specifically mentioned that Democrats need to be worried about it.
But Democrats, their Democrats will meet comments that look, some of Kennedy's positions aren't exactly in line with today's Democratic party.
And they might take away some Republicans.

(25:29):
It's interesting that I believe it was a few weeks ago in one of President Biden's, actually was President Biden's most recent visit in the state.
He was in Philadelphia and President Biden had an event and he who joined him on stage several members of the Kennedy family endorsing his candidacy.
I think that's kind of a, and they didn't mention Bobby Kennedy Jr's name during his address during the endorsement, but it seemed pretty clear that they were on stage for one reason to show that the Kennedy name is still well known and I'll figure out some Democratic politics where it's not like the Kennedy family is backing Bobby Kennedy, you know, RFK Jr's candidacy.

(26:09):
They're backing Biden. I think that was a, I guess, a strategic move to get ahead of that to say to Democrats who will, you know, maybe have fond memories of the Kennedys.
They might think maybe I'll vote my protest vote for Kennedy.
Most of the Kennedy family may have to point the joint Biden on stage that day to vote for him.
Again, it's still early to determine who they're going to take more from, but both campaigns are definitely watching it because they need to, I think they realize that they're not going to ignore his candidacy.

(26:35):
I've seen press releases from both parties, legitimately in the past few weeks, that have acknowledged that Kennedy said this about this issue.
He said this about this issue, trying to rival their base saying you don't want to vote for him in theory.
But again, his name ID, maybe his message will resonate with some voters that, again, whether it be a candidate, he could, you know, he could get enough votes that it couldn't ultimately sway, you know, who determined who wins.

(27:00):
It depends on me, you know, depends on me in general election, but we don't know what size is going to take for more from you.
I think that's going to continue to monitor, you know, since it's only May, we'll see will Kennedy's message stay the same will he visit certain states more than others is going to try to talk to certain voters.
That ultimately I think to turn on what party I think will be more free that he takes more votes from.
Yeah, I definitely agree that it's certainly a story to monitor going forward and I'm curious what like specific races or storylines are you as a journalist going to be following in this lead up to November.

(27:32):
What do you think are going to be the important things coming out?
Yeah, so again, since my job specifically is covering Pennsylvania, of course, all races are important, but of course the presidential races, something that again, the nation has their eyes on it, but Pennsylvania.
Without just talking about how much we love our state, but it really is important this time or I mean every election, it's important, but I think it's been recognized as I mentioned earlier in our discussion that national ratings outlets have mentioned there's only a handful, you know, five or six toss of states.

(28:04):
So, you know, we can even mention the conversation.
So, you have Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, you could throw in a few other states perhaps.
I think there are those who believe Nevada is also in that discussion and maybe North Carolina.
I mean, there's a few others, but there I think, regardless of the big ones.

(28:25):
I know those states I just mentioned, Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes.
So, again, Pennsylvania, you know, and it's also, Pennsylvania also has the distinction of this. Trump won it in 2016 and Biden won it in 2020.
Both candidates have won in the state.
So, they both, you know, people voted for them in the state and they've carried the Commonwealth before.
And I think, you know, Trump, a big part of why he won in 2016, Pennsylvania was certainly a help.

(28:52):
And Biden certainly was a huge help that he was able to win Pennsylvania. So, both campaigns are going all in for the state.
We've seen both candidates visit the state on numerous occasions already.
And I've been there on several visits and I will plan to be.
So, I'm, I'm trying to see what parts of the state they visit.
So, that's only not, I'm really curious to see like what, you know, Pennsylvania, there's 67 counties.

(29:14):
It's a big state. It's not like Rhode Island. It's not just, you know, it's, it's, you know, people in eerie might have different issues on their mind.
And the voters of Philadelphia vice versa. Maybe those in Scranton might not be thinking the same thing that voters in Green County are.
Which borders must Virginia, you know, that, you know, so it's a diversity, a diverse electorate.

(29:35):
And I'm curious to see where they spend their time and resources.
They, again, they may be the, I think certain counties might focus on specific regions of the state.
But they, they understand that you can't just do one part of the state.
You need to make sure you talk them to all 67 counties.
So, the presidential race, of course, important, the race for US Senate between Bob Casey and David Corners important because, so right now, again, the Democrats have the White House.

(30:00):
Republicans have the US House. Democrats are essentially nodded, you know, even right now in this US Senate.
You know, we're very close to that.
Joe Manchin retiring. He's the US Senator from West Virginia, a Democrat retiring there with him retiring.
I think Republicans are rather confident that they're going to take that seat back.
So, there's a few US Senate races that, you know, that are under the microscope of can determine ultimately you controls the chamber in 2025 and beyond.

(30:30):
And Pennsylvania is in that, that loose few states. So Casey and the race between Casey McCormick is going to be interesting.
Right now, I can at least report that they've agreed to three debates.
We don't know the details yet. So again, just to let the audience know.
And it's only May where it's very likely that they won't debate until very close, much closer to the general election, probably September, October.

(30:54):
But they agreed to three debates. They said one in Pittsburgh, one in Harrisburg, one in Philadelphia.
So, all different parts of the state trying to talk to different voters.
So, we'll see that race play out. And then of course, since the US House is close, there's a few congressional races that are important.
And I'm assuming both of you are probably based in the Harrisburg area.
The 10th congressional district is one of the races that's very interesting.

(31:17):
Congressman Scott Perry, former chair of the Conservative House Freedom Caucus, seeking real election.
He's again, Democrats have tried to, Democrats have put up candidates.
The past few elections, some races have been close to the others. I believe Perry's closest reelection was in recent memory, was 20-18.

(31:38):
He beat Democrat George Scott by just a few points. But beyond that, those races have been usually single digits.
Democrats have picked their candidate, Janelle Stelson, who's a former anchor at WGAL.
And so, the Stelson, Perry race should be interesting, both candidates are capable of raising a good amount of money.
So, we'll follow that one. PA1 is a congressional race that's important. It's Congress, we're in Bryan Fitzpatrick.

(32:02):
He represents a Bucks County, which Fitzpatrick has the distinction of being the only Republican and Pennsylvania's congressional delegation that represents a district that voter for Biden.
So, he has to, you know, he can't go alone just for Republican voters. He needs to win over Democrats there.
He's the chair of the House, Problem Solvers Caucus, which is a bipartisan caucus. So, he's facing Ashley Eha's, a Democrat. She's a veteran.

(32:30):
She ran against him in 2022. Fitzpatrick won by several points. I believe it was close to 10 or maybe 10 points.
But this time around Eha's against her second campaign. And she feels a little more optimistic this time, even though, and again, since Biden's on the ballot, Biden won that district last time.
We'll see if there's a downbound effect and we'll see if Biden wins that district once again.

(32:51):
PA7 is interesting, which is in the Lehigh Valley. Susan Wilde is running again. She is a Democrat.
That is a very much a battleground. Some of the preferred was like purple, where, you know, either fair share of red and blue voters there.
Should we face and state representative Ryan McKenzie, I expect that race will be getting a lot of attention. And I think ultimately that will be one of the races that again, because she won in 2018, 2020, 2022.

(33:21):
But she's had close races each time. She's won by just a few points. So that's one that Republicans are really targeting.
And then in Northeast PA, you have Congress on that cart right running for the election. He has the distinction of being the only Democrat in the state's congressional delegation to represent a district that Trump won.

(33:42):
Trump won that district. Those boundaries in 2016 and 2020. So Republicans are certainly targeting it because Trump has fared rather well there.
And it's also interesting because that district includes Grant and where President Joe Biden was born and spent at least the first 10 years or so of his life there.
But on cart right will be running for reelection. He is facing Republican Rob Brezen of Ham. So that's one that we're keeping an eye on as well at the capital star.

(34:08):
And then of course again, Attorney General, Treasure, Auditor General, all important state wide races. And then the state house again, this is a very, you know, one seat majority for Democrats.
So very well or interior Republicans take that back and hold on to the majority in the Senate waiting in the 2026. They're probably their big message will be what Shapiro will be up for reelection in 26.

(34:30):
I'm sure their message will be if they flip the governorship, they would have, you know, they would try to have all three chambers right now. We had divided government in Pennsylvania or pack.
There's a possibility that Democrats could flip the Senate. They have a taller task because they have more seats to flip. But maybe Democrats, you know, the Democrats are certainly trying to flip the state Senate. And if they do, that means it 2025 they would have the, and if they hold on to the majority of the Senate House Democrats would have the governor's mansion.

(34:56):
They'd have the state house and the state Senate. So a lot on the line there in these margins are rather close in Pennsylvania.
And again, there's a lot there for voters. So no matter what part of the state you're in, some, you know, some might have more race on the bat. That might be closer, but there's a ton to vote on.
And you know, certainly would encourage voters, you know, in New Bember to go to the polls. I think it'll be interesting because again, the primary election voter trend wasn't that high, but I do expect it to be higher.

(35:22):
One thing I do want to ask about is actually going back to the Senate election and you mentioned West Virginia is probably going to go Republican with the Joe Manchin seat. And last time last time the Senate was up was Federman and Oz and the Republicans were quite confident in Oz's ability.
However, one of the key factors to losing was the fact that he is not from Pennsylvania and from Jersey. So this time they put up a candidate who was unopposed ran last time in Dave McCormick, who's a native Pennsylvania.

(35:54):
And I'm wondering is if you could see maybe more support now going to McCormick versus Oz due to the Pennsylvania nativeism or if Casey's kind of name recognition will still hold value over this new candidate.
Yeah, it's a really it's going to be an interesting race because in 2022 when it was then Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman against me, but Oz, it was an open seat.

(36:20):
So even though both, you know, I'm sure voters across the state knew both, but it was a wide open seat this time Senator Casey to I guess his advantage he's an incumbent and there is something regarded as like the power of an common see he's got name recognition.
He's been in office. He's been in the US Senate since 2006.
You know, it's a long time and to the you know, to voters or older maybe not in my age or your age range, they would remember his father, about Casey being the governor of the state.

(36:47):
So the Casey name is well known in Pennsylvania.
Some voters of a certain age, let's say McCormick again this time he had the benefit of at least what so when Oz got out of that primary in 2022, it was a very close race to those remember Oz won that primary by less than a thousand votes over McCormick.
And it was close and they had to spend a lot of time and resources fighting each other since McCormick was unopposed.

(37:12):
He had the past few months, he can kind of look forward to the general election. You have to worry about a primary battle.
And to McCormick's credit, he's been able to raise a good amount of money and he's also independently wealthy. So he's able to inject a couple million already at this point.
It was campaign, which is no small number.
McCormick does have roots in the state, you're right, he grew up born and raised in the state. However, he is, you know, the residency issue is something that's actually going to play out this time around to what degree remains to be seen.

(37:42):
But the Casey campaign by large has made an issue of residency because McCormick hasn't lived in Pennsylvania his whole life.
He did grow up here, you know, born and raised once a grade school, high school, etc.
He joined the Army and the coursements at West Point and then, you know, he had a long career in, you know, he worked in the Bush administration, you know, sort of business career.

(38:04):
But he was living in Connecticut for a good chunk of time and he lived in Connecticut for a while up until the past few years.
And he still makes trips there, I think, a decent amount. And he's acknowledged it because I think he's, I believe from now on, say he's still one daughter that's in high school there.
So I think he still goes, of course, in visits, you know, her. But point being, residency, maybe I don't know if it's going to play out the same way it didn't 2022 because Oz really didn't have the same roots at all in the state, I guess, because Oz grew up in Delaware.

(38:36):
And I guess to the extent of Oz's residency in Pennsylvania, he went to college at Penn. So I guess he could at least clean up the college here, but beyond that, he wasn't really, again, he was living in New Jersey.
Democrats are making an issue again. Look at the Casey campaign and others where McCormick hasn't been in Pennsylvania again. He lived, he grew up here, but he spent, you know, good amount of the past decade or plus or so in Connecticut.

(39:02):
So no, it's an issue where Casey's got name idea, which will help him. And I know he's going to use McCormick's recent Connecticut residency as a pitch against him. However, again, McCormick's been able to raise a good amount of money so far.
So we'll see, I don't know how often either of you watch TV, but we've already seen both campaigns are on television with ads.

(39:26):
So it kind of goes a show and then you're thinking, like, it's me. Why are both candidates on TV already? It's going to be expensive, raise both candidates are capable of raising a lot of money.
And I think they're going to do so. And I think you're going to be on television for a while because this should be an interesting race to fall.
Yeah, and there's the whole issue of Dave McCormick trying to paint himself as sort of like a rural farm guy, you know, bringing himself up from his bootstraps. And then that was sort of debunked, you know, very recently.

(39:55):
So it'll be interesting to see if, you know, sort of rural voters sort of take issue with him trying to portray himself as one of their own when he's not really that kind of a person.
It'll be interesting because I think traditionally speaking, look at the rural counties in the state. They buy a large vote, you know, Republican. That's not to say every person in rural America, rural Pennsylvania doesn't vote that way.

(40:20):
But I'm saying you look at the vote tallies in your rural counties. Republicans tend to do well there. It'll be interesting to see again how he does in those areas because when Trump won the state in 2016,
he did so by racking up massive numbers in these rural areas. If, and you know what the last time or Republican won, so the last time the Republican won a US Senate race in Pennsylvania was 2016.

(40:46):
And that was a Pat Tumey was the incumbent Senator at the time. And it's fine. And here's a fasting note. So Trump and Tumey both won in 2016.
And so they knew for both Republican. However, they both kind of they had somewhat different paths to winning. Trump put up massive numbers in these rural areas and didn't do so well in the suburbs, but he still won.

(41:10):
Tumey on the other hand didn't do as well as Trump in the rural areas, but Tumey did pretty decent for a Republican, pretty well in the suburbs.
And I had a chance to ask Senator Tumey. I saw him. I guess it was a month ago or so, maybe a little more. Tumey was campaigning with McCormick. They were in Philly at Geno's making cheese steaks.

(41:32):
And I had the chance to talk to Tumey because, you know, I kind of asked like, you and I posed the question to him like, you and Trump had different paths to victory in 2016. You both won the state, but you didn't do necessarily with the same electorate.
And he didn't acknowledge any greed. He's like, yeah, we spoke to different voters. He thinks McCormick and his mind. He had confidence in McCormick because he believes those rural and those conservative voters.

(41:58):
He thinks they won't vote for Casey. Again, that means we'll see what happens. But he seems to think that those Trump voters will ultimately vote down, bad for him.
And he thinks that McCormick can out-paste Trump because he thinks he'll do better in the Philadelphia suburbs, the suburbs of Western PA, even the suburban voters and their suburban voters in Harrisburg as well.

(42:19):
And the Harrisburg region. So they seem to, you know, Tumey seem to make the pitch to reporters that McCormick and Trump, you know, although they're both endorsing each other, Trump's endorsement, McCormick, McCormick's endorse Trump.
But Tumey and some other puns seem to think they may, you know, maybe they might run somewhat different candidacies in the sense that maybe one will do better in certain regions. And the rural area is something I'm certainly keeping an eye on because Trump, you know, in 2016, he would not have won Pennsylvania if not putting up those massive numbers in the rural parts of the state.

(42:51):
So we'll see again how he fairs this time whether and how much of McCormick, how welcome McCormick do there because if he can't do well off in those rural areas of Casey cuts into those leads a bit, it'll be tough for him to on C Casey.
One thing I do want to ask as you mentioned, Trump this time endorsed McCormick. Do you think the fact that before McCormick was quite upset that Trump endorsed us, do you think that's going to have any effect or would be used as an attack point for McCormick?

(43:20):
Yeah, it's interesting. So I guess the background there. So in 2022, those are competitive Republican primaries to take over Senator Tumey.
And it wasn't just a race between Oz and McCormick. There were other candidates in it. I'm Kathy Barnett, I think actually even registered like 20% or so, or at least 15% she actually did rather well too.
But Republican primary voters, Trump is popular in the Republican party. And that race was neck and neck and Trump endorsed Oz and it got him over the finish line.

(43:50):
You do wonder if he didn't endorse Oz would Oz have won that primary who knows.
In 2024, right now McCormick had a clear path in nomination. He was the only one on there. And it was interesting because months ago it was early in, I want to say January.
McCormick was on a call with reporters and I was on this call. And so when asked them, are you going to endorse in the Republican party primary for president to McCormick?

(44:18):
And at the time, this is when Trump was not, this is when Trump had a competitive primary. This is when Nikki Haley and others were in the race.
And McCormick said at the time, I'm not planning on endorsing anyone before the primary. And I think he he didn't endorse Trump until it was legitimately the day, I think it was the day after or very shortly after.

(44:40):
Haley announced that she was no longer in the race is when McCormick endorsed Trump because there was no other Republicans in the race. So McCormick eventually came around them and then Trump eventually returned the favor and endorsed McCormick.
This was he actually made the endorse I was at the rally. It was in the Lehigh Valley. This was I don't know if it was either late March or early April in which Trump did it held a rally and during his like hour long speech, you need a point to say.

(45:08):
And vote for Dave McCormick. That's going to be one of the most interesting thing is to see is.
Pennsylvania voters by large, you know, I know most people, you know, usually one in a close election. I think usually it's expected that if the president wins sold as a US Senate candidate from their party.
That's not always the case in Pennsylvania. Again, there are those who split their ticket. They might vote different down ballot.

(45:32):
And I can already tell you what's been a campaign issue thus far in the US center race is that Senator Casey has been linking McCormick to Trump for most of the campaign saying in his words that McCormick will be fighting for the MAGA agenda and he will just be supporting the Trump policy to.
And let's go to the McCormick campaign the whole time thus far. McCormick campaign has made a big issue saying they've been saying that Casey is votes was by 90% of the time. He votes for he's essentially when you vote for Casey were in for Biden.

(46:08):
So both candidates have already made the issue. They're trying to link the other to the top of the ticket. And that's interesting because you're not actually going to see that in every state, but in certain swing states, you'll see that Pennsylvania is one of them where McCormick is trying his best to tie Casey to Biden.
And guess what Casey is trying his best to tie McCormick to Trump. So that'll be interesting to follow to see how many voters will vote straight tickets. So will they vote, you know, Democrat all down line or they vote wrong and all that online or you have your voters that split their ballot.

(46:36):
In 2020 when Biden won. She so he's a Democrat in one of the White House and Josh appear was the attorney general at the time he won his reelection bit over Republican Heather Hyde ball.
But guess what the treasure in order general race both went to Republicans. Stacey Guyerty is the incumbent treasure. She defeated incumbent Democrat at the time Joe Torsella.

(47:02):
And you know she didn't have nearly the funds that Torsella have but she ever Republican won that race and Tim de Four.
That all other general race was an open seat. It was previously held by Eugene D. Pascal who's actually running for all attorney general this time.
That was an open seat in 2020 between.
That was Tim de Four who was the Dolphin County controller and Nina mod from Philadelphia and De Four won that so point being.

(47:29):
You know in 2020 in Pennsylvania a Democrat won the White House and a Democrat won the attorney general's office.
However, for Charger and order general there are Republicans won those races so we'll see if there's you know there's a possibility or a world in which
Biden or Trump could win the state but that doesn't necessarily mean that the same part you know the core worker Casey will win just because the top of the ticket won.

(47:51):
There are people who do split their ticket in Pennsylvania.
You mentioned Treasurer and I kind of want to talk as you mentioned Democrat had lost that time and in the primary we had Democrat who was endorsed by Casey as well as Joanna McClinton speaker of the Pennsylvania House and lost.
And I want to know if you think that that could potentially hurt the Democrat's chance at getting that treasurer seat or if this shows maybe the voters have a different feeling of support for a certain candidate.

(48:22):
Yeah the Treasurer so it's inching in this past primary election.
I think a lot of the reporters and pundits alike would say one of the biggest surprise or take away results was the Treasurer primary.
So the Pennsylvania Democratic Party at their endorsement meeting in the winter endorsed couple candidates for state white office.

(48:43):
They endorsed Biden of course and doors Casey was on a pose and in the other general race say endorsed Malcolm can yada over then I guess it was more pencil Lee High County controller and stay right more
and the treasurer's race they endorse state representative Ryan Bizarro a Democrat who was from the northwest region of the state eerie county.

(49:10):
They endorsed him over Democrat Aaron McClinton who's from Western PA small business background she's run for office on different offices on multiple occasions.
But the state party endorsed Bizarro and one thing I was worth noting about the state party endorsement process because I was even in the room for this in a house for to get the state party endorsement for Democrats you need two thirds of state party members like delegates so it's not a simple majority and if you're a Republican you know in the P.A.

(49:41):
G.O.P. to get the state party endorsement you need a simple majority I think plus one. Democrats need two thirds so Bizarro racked up significant amount of support and had that however he still lost the primary to McClinton.
I think it was a surprise because usually the endorsed candidate by the state party wins a state wide primary but that didn't play out.

(50:07):
However since those results happen we see Democrats rally around the clon it's not as if they're giving her the cold shoulder they are they're embracing her because in their mind they you know Democrats are trying to unsee Stacy Gary so whether it was Bizarro or McClon they're going to back the Democrat but that was one of the more surprising primary results if not the most surprising result from the primary election because it's you know not the part the state party you know the state party endorsement doesn't mean everything but it's not really like you said Bizarro had you know

(50:36):
the House speakers endorsement a bunch of other notable Democrats but
Democratic primary voters felt differently and the clon will be the candidate so that's that's interesting I think the Democrats now rallying the troops around the clon but it will be interesting to see you know what kind of role that you know what kind of impact will that have for November.
There's one to change gears slightly as we sort of come to the end of this and just sort of talk about you know your job as a journalist and the media and journalism in general is sort of come under a lot of scrutiny and is trust has sort of been lost with different sectors of the population so I'm wondering if

(51:09):
journalists in the media how are you working to try and gain back that trust of voters and people that are looking at the news and trying to figure out who they should vote for that kind of thing.
Yeah it's a good and fair question where you know I think to the best I think every journalist to the best of their ability who is doing their job the right way is joined again essentially do their best to keep their head down and do their job and

(51:34):
is cornings that may sound like the works be for the self you know the media as long as you're putting out good stories hopefully people will recognize that certainly you know I think that requires talking to voters from all backgrounds that requires going to various events
to get people's perspective you know and I think that's something that's important it's a responsibility that journalists have and I think all journalists feel is that to regain trust you know what you want to make sure you're hearing people and accurately representing them in the right you know and the accurate way to make sure that so they know that look around out for either side we want to we're trying to truly portray what is happening and so people can be informed.

(52:12):
And my hope again we'll see how it all plays out my hope is that you know that we can you know journalists can regain the trust of those who are skeptical you know and hopefully that you know that unfortunately you know there's I know there's misinformation from that can be spread and hopefully that the right information is getting out there to the voters and journalists you know certainly no no journalist is perfect to be clear I'm not saying your regional is perfect you know not every story written by journalists is perfect.

(52:41):
But hopefully you know the cycle journalists do their best myself included.
I portraying everything as we see it you know somewhat being like an empire in baseball calling balls and strikes no matter what team it may be for it's your job to you know play referee in that sense.
And it's our you know it's our job to again call it as we see it and hopefully you know we do that to the best for a building hopefully you know the American electorate by and large recognizes that and hopefully you know we can start to reach out to the party.

(53:10):
And it's a legitimate concern that I think you know sure anything I'm curious for young reporters.
Not a pursuing you know let's say a job in the industry I mean I'm only 29 years old so look I was only in college not even a full decade ago and I could say coming up these discussions were happening I was in college and during the 2016 election and I was covering some of these events in person you know Trump and Hillary Clinton at the time.

(53:36):
And there was discussions even then about how do we get people to regain the trust you know or how do people to get people to trust and you know trust our reporting and that's something that's persistent and I don't think it's a brand new issue for say what I it's not like I don't think this happened just yesterday.
It didn't happen just in 2016.
I think the hope is that as time progresses you know as long as we're doing our job the best for everybody that's all you can do but hopefully we can you know certainly earn the trust of the people who are reading what we're doing and hopefully inspire others who are young and interesting the field not to feel let down or dismay by the current state of journalism hopefully they feel encouraged to join the field you know I think it's it's rewarding work and it's enjoyable to those who have a passion and you know and I understand their skepticism.

(54:22):
From some to you know what I want to join it or not I think you know it's still an overly rewarding profession and I hope to young reporters out there again I again I was in college not even a whole decade ago and I remember having those questions and I was like do I really want to pursue this and you deal with those questions about you know hopefully people you know as long as you're doing your job the best your ability I think you know by larger build up enough goodwill that people will respect you and your field.

(54:48):
I do want to say I've read some of your articles and I thank you personally at least have remained unbiased and reporting the facts which when you're trying to make a decision about who to vote for is what you need you just need to know who the candidate is what they stand for not whether the specific reporter thinks that's a good thing or bad thing so I want to thank you for doing that as part of your job and I want to thank you for joining us as you really brought in some good insights on what's going on.

(55:17):
Pennsylvania as you'll turn on CNN or Fox News you can easily listen to what's going on Trump or Biden but I feel we need more people talking about down the ballot as those are the elections that do decide what happened.
I mean we have local school boards making decisions about certain identities and those are local elections we have state legislature which will either help or hurt rural Americans making those decisions.

(55:45):
So I really do think it's important that we have reporters out there talking about what's going on locally so I want to thank you for what you do reporting and thank you for joining us.
Thank you lots a fun conversation again whenever you need me again the future before the election certainly willing to join from the PA angle because don't forget again Pennsylvania as the keystone state will be important this time around and we will see lots of coverage it will be a busy few months.

(56:12):
So I'm gearing up where I think you know we're just under I guess officially six months until the general election and until then there is a lot of things to cover and we're going to try our best to do it at the capital star.
And I know there's a lot of other amazing journalists in Pennsylvania that are doing the same that I read on a daily basis so it's going to be an interesting six months and it'll be a lot but it will be a very interesting time here in the state of Pennsylvania.

(56:37):
No, no, yeah, I just want to echo what Sam said. Thank you so much for joining us and I hope everyone joins us next time for next Gen PA.
Next Gen PA is a podcast from the World Affairs Council of Harrisburg. For more information on the World Affairs Council of Harrisburg visit our website at wacheresburg.org.

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