Sibylline: What Just Happened?
What Just Happened is a short-format, informal podcast brought to you by the intelligence analysts at Sibylline LTD, a strategic risk firm based in London. Hosted by Ignacio Ayala, this podcast features brief conversations between the host and his fellow analysts, updating you on major geopolitical events as soon as they happen.
Episodes
In this episode, Alexander Marciniak from the Latin America desk joins Ignacio to explore the complex dynamics of drone warfare in Haiti. They discuss the increasing use of drones by Haitian security forces, the impact on civilian safety and the broader implications for the region. The conversation also covers the formation of the 'Viv Ansanm' gang coalition and the adoption of drone warfare across Latin America, including Mexico a...
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Megan Sutcliffe from the Middle East and Africa desk to understand the recent strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and discuss the damage inflicted, the current state of Iran's nuclear capabilities and the implications for Iran's intentions regarding nuclear weapon development. Megan provides insights into the complexities of nuclear weapon development, the stages involved and the geopolitical ...
In this episode, Alexander Marciniak from the Latin America desk joins Ignacio to unpack the current political situation in Colombia, focusing on President Gustavo Petro's labor reform, the implications of a popular consultation and the potential for a constitutional assembly. It also addresses the ongoing violence in the country and the upcoming elections, highlighting key candidates and voter concerns.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin and Principal Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe to unpack the recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, focusing on Israel's Operation Rising Lion, which involved high-intensity airstrikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Megan and Lewis discuss the implications of these strikes, the potential for U.S. involvement ...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Associate Americas Intelligence Analyst Azul Hidalgo Solá to discuss the recent protests in Los Angeles triggered by the Trump administration's immigration enforcement actions. They walk through the deployment of the National Guard, the legal implications surrounding the protests, the escalating tensions between state and federal authorities, the potential for further protests in other ci...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Karan Vassil to review the recent Ukrainian drone operation targeting Russian air bases, its implications for military capabilities and the potential impact on ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The discussion highlights the unprecedented use of first-person view (FPV) drones, the operational planning behind the attack and the subsequent effects on Russian strategic assets a...
Today, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Claire Brady for a different sort of episode. Together they discuss multiple significant political developments in the U.S., including the implications of a sweeping mega bill passed by the House, the Trump administration's conflict with Harvard University and shifts in U.S. foreign policy. The conversation highlights the potential socioeconomic impacts of the mega bill, the administration's stance...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Layla Guest to discuss the ongoing peace negotiations surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. They focus on recent developments, the contrasting positions of Russia and Ukraine, and the differing approaches of the EU and the US. They also explore the potential future of these negotiations and the role of China in the conflict.
If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing ...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Noam Ostfeld (Principal Analyst - Middle East & North Africa & Turkey) to discuss the recent Israeli military strategy in Gaza, focusing on the intensification of operations and the implications for both domestic politics and humanitarian conditions. They explore the so-called 'Rafah' model, which involves holding territories for longer periods, and the potential impact on ceasefi...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Claire Brady (Principal North America Analyst) to discuss the recent Canadian federal elections. Claire outlines the Liberal Party's victory under Mark Carney, the context of Trudeau's resignation, the influence of Donald Trump on Canadian politics, Carney's approach to US relations and the implications for Quebec and other political parties like the NDP.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Shiza Abbasi, Sibylline's Principal Analyst for South Asia. Together, they explore J.D. Vance's visit to India, focusing on the implications for U.S.-India trade relations amidst ongoing tariff tensions. Shiza discusses the historical context of the visit, the domestic political dynamics in India, and the challenges posed by agricultural tariffs.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Alex Marciniak from the Latin America desk here at Sibylline to discuss the recent presidential elections in Ecuador. Alex explains the newly elected President Daniel Noboa, his policies and the ongoing security crisis in the country. Alex also highlights Noboa's approach to governance, particularly his security measures against organised crime, the economic challenges facing Ecuador and ...
Please note that this episode was recorded on April 9th, and further developments may occur. Stay tuned for future episodes!
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala and his guest, Jonah Kaplan (Principal Analyst for Asia Pacific at Sibylline) delve into the escalating US-China trade war, examining the recent tariff increases and China's retaliatory measures. Jonah lays out the implications of these actions on both economies and the broad...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala and Claire Brady discuss President Trump's recent tariff announcements. They explore the motivations behind these tariffs, their calculation, global reactions, and potential domestic economic implications. The discussion highlights the significant impact these tariffs may have on international trade relations and the U.S. economy.
If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or le...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the recent IDF airstrike on Beirut, its implications for the ceasefire with Hezbollah and the potential perpetrators behind recent rocket attacks. They explore the recent historical context of the ceasefire, the dynamics of the current situation and the likely future developments in the region.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Associate North America Analyst Azul Hidalgo Solá to discuss the recent political developments in Canada. Azul focuses on Mark Carney's decision to call for a snap election and the implications for the Liberal Party and its competition. The discussion highlights the shifting political landscape, the impact of tariffs, and the leading candidates' contrasting policies.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the recent detention of Turkish opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu, the subsequent protests in Turkey, and the international response to these events. It highlights the political climate in Turkey under President Erdogan, the implications of İmamoğlu's arrest, and the reactions from civil society and foreign governments.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Principal Middle East Analyst Noam Ostfeld about the recent deployment of Israeli tanks in the occupied West Bank—the first such deployment in over 20 years—as part of an intensified military operation. If you enjoyed the episode, please leave a review and subscribe! Follow us for new episodes and more geopolitical content:
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In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Latin America Intelligence Analyst Alex Marciniak about the escalating conflict in Colombia’s Catatumbo region (Norte de Santander department). Alex explains the significance of Catatumbo as a major coca-producing region and a hotspot for drug smuggling across the Venezuela-Colombia border. He also describes how the National Liberation Army (ELN) has intensified attacks against rival guerr...
In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Middle East and Africa Analyst Ben Manzin to discuss the situation in Goma after fighting erupted between the M23 rebel group and the Congolese Armed Forces. Ben explains the situation in Goma, the actors involved, the impact the conflict will have on organisations operating in the area and the broader regional implications in the coming days and weeks.
Please note this episode was ...
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