The latest Sparta Market Outlook Podcast dives into oil market chaos sparked by "Liberation Day" tariff uncertainty. Host Felipe and analysts Neil, Phil, and Hoa unpack U.S. tariff threats, sanctions on Venezuela and Russia, and their ripple effects across oil markets. Bullish signals - think Russia’s CPC shutdown and tight crude - clash with a wait-and-see mood as traders eye tonight’s big tariff reveal. It’s tactical trades meets fundamentals in a market on the edge.
Key takeaways:
> Liberation day uncertainty: What will tonight’s tariff announcement mean for oil trade - reciprocal tariffs, a flat global rate, or a negotiable system?
> Crude market confusion: Are sky-high DFLs justified, or is this a bubble waiting to burst?
> Physical supply shocks: How will Russia’s CPC inspections and potential Venezuelan export drops shake up crude availability?
> Gasoline’s wait-and-see mode: Open arbitrage opportunities abound, but will this push May/June EBOB spreads higher?
> Distillate’s bearish turn: Is gas oil’s mini-sell-off a sign of deeper demand worries tied to global growth?
> China’s fuel oil quotas: How do new export quotas and blending strategies impact the high sulphur complex?
📚 Chapters
(02:45) Macro Rundown: Neil on Tariffs & Turmoil
Neil unpacks tariff possibilities and the confusion gripping oil markets.
(18:12) Crude Close-Up: Supply Jolts & Spread Surges
Diving into Russia’s CPC closures and the Brent/Dubai spread frenzy.
(31:10) Gasoline Gist: Phil’s Bullish Hints & Hesitation
Phil spotlights arbitrage openings and why traders are holding back.
(45:15) Fuel Oil Focus: Hua on China’s Quotas & High Sulfur
Hua breaks down China’s export moves and the high sulfur complex shift.
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