Episode 35: The waiting game: Flat price plummets, physical oil mostly holds firm

In this episode of Sparta Market Outlook, host Felipe Elink Schuurman and analysts Neil Crosby, June Goh, and Jorge Molinero analyse the oil market’s reaction to tariff announcements, including a $15 flat price drop and significant LPG disruptions. They explore how physical markets—crude, diesel, and gasoline—have held steady despite the noise, while naphtha and LPG face bearish pressures tied to China specifically and the petrochemical market. The team debates short-term trading opportunities, like locking in refining margins, and mid-term scenarios, from OPEC strategy to demand shocks, offering traders a clearer path through the chaos. 🔷 Tariff shockwave: While flat prices plummet $15 and financial markets are in chaos, the physical oil market has come through relatively unscathed for now.

🔷 LPG’s big hit: How are tariffs reshaping China’s LPG imports and, and what’s the ripple effect on the petchem industry?

🔷 Physical market resilience: Discover why product markets are largely holding firm despite the volatility.

🔷 Naphtha’s weak spot: Will naphtha’s bearish slide last in the short-term?

🔷 Oil balancing factors: Which oil producers are most reactive to price as the tariff story unfolds?

🔷 Refining margins: Do low pump prices and steady demand create short-term opportunities?

📚 Chapters

(02:30) Tariff Shock: The $15 Drop

The team dives into the market’s reaction to unexpected tariffs, unpacking the $15 flat price plunge and the initial global response.

(10:00) Physical Markets Hold Steady

Neil breaks down why crude, diesel, and gasoline spreads and cracks remain resilient despite the chaos, offering clues for traders.

(13:45) Naphtha Weakness vs. Gasoline Strength

The discussion shifts to naphtha’s bearish slide and gasoline’s surprising margin opportunities—where’s the edge?

(19:16) LPG Crisis: China’s Trade Turmoil

Jorge and Neil spotlight the tariffs’ massive hit to China’s LPG imports, hinting at a 30% price collapse and shifting cargo destinations.

(32:09) Distillates: A Bullish Surprise?

Neil explores why diesel cracks and spreads are holding firm, with Asia’s tightness and Europe’s closed arbs hinting at unexpected strength.

(35:30) Crude Premiums and Refining Realities

June analyses falling crude premiums, OPEC’s supply moves, and how refining margins signal physical demand strength.

(41:06) Clarity Amid Chaos

Felipe and the analysts wrap up with short-term trading ideas and a wait-and-see stance for what’s next in this tariff saga.