Episode 44: OPEC games, gasoline ripples, and fuel oil realities

In this episode, Felipe Elink Schuurman hosts a full analyst roundtable to unpack a market simmering with geopolitical tension, narrative shifts, and product-specific developments. The team breaks down the fragility of bullish crude sentiment amid Middle East risks, soft OPEC compliance, and US-China trade noise. Gasoline markets are shaped by East-West arbitrage reversals, Singapore’s inventory crunch, and Europe’s teetering strength. On the fuel oil front, stability returns, but with latent signals from power gen demand, high sulfur switching, and LPG trade revivals. The conversation wraps with debates on distillate cracks, refinery runs, and the elusive catalyst that might flip the Brent spread narrative.

Key Points:

• Why the current $1 Brent backwardation may be more narrative than fundamentals
• What’s behind the East-West gasoline arbitrage reversal—and why Singapore is now shut out
• Fuel oil’s “boring” week hides emerging signals from Middle East power gen and LPG trade shifts
• Could Europe become the new default supplier to East Africa and Mexico?
• The latest on US crude inventories, refinery runs, and what that means for summer spreads
• High sulfur fuel switching: more noise than signal—or the next macro driver?
• Cracking margins collapse: what it means for refining outlook and distillate strength
• The quiet revival of US propane exports to China: fluke or structural shift?

Chapters

(03:01) 🇮🇶 Geopolitical Tensions & Bullish Headwinds US-Iran-Israel tensions, embassy evacuations, and Brent spread hesitations.

(06:13) 📉 OPEC Supply Myths vs. Market Reality Market catching up to actual OPEC output—why the hikes are still missing.

(09:01) 📈 The Next Catalyst: Waiting for Saudi Supply & Seasonal Shifts When and how the crude narrative might flip, and the need for a clear trigger.

(09:48) 🌍 US Supply Plateau & Russian Price Cap Rumbles STEO revisions hint at a US peak while Europe eyes refined product bans.

(12:34) 🛢️ East-West Arbitrage Reversal in Gasoline Singapore’s rally shuts the ARBs; Europe regains price competitiveness.

(18:00) 🌏 Asia-to-Atlantic Ripple Effects How Asia’s tightness could set up Europe and US Gulf for late-summer demand spikes.

(22:05) 🔥 Fuel Oil Calm After the Storm Premiums stabilize, but analysis shows signs of PowerGen pull and tighter balances.

(26:33) ⚡ PowerGen vs. Gas: Red Sea Efficiency and Hajj Impacts A close look at megawatt economics and demand from religious tourism (30:19) ⚖️ Crude vs. HSFO Switching: Myth or Material? Unpacking whether refiner incentives and subsidies are changing real flows.

(34:33) 🧊 Crude Spreads: Have We Peaked? Brent’s strength may be short-lived—TI flows, MEH weakness, and freight rates hint at reversal.

(42:25) ⛽ Distillates Outlook & Ice Gasoil Spreads ICE spread plays, monsoon implications, and why HOGO and East-Eest still hold strong.