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July 14, 2025 26 mins

Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high — but does that mean it's the smartest place to put your money? In this episode of The Best Half Show, we dig into the gold vs. Bitcoin debate, the rise of stablecoins, and whether Bitcoin really has staying power as a store of value.

We also get into how central banks, governments, and the world’s wealthiest families view these assets — and why gold might still be the king of long-term investing. Plus: Tesla’s future, Google’s dominance, and the underrated impact of taxes on your gains. If you’re building a portfolio, this is a conversation you don’t want to miss.

🎧 Tune in and decide: Are you stacking Bitcoin, stacking gold — or stacking both?

Mark as Played
Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome to the Best Half Show, where we believe that the second half of your life can be 10 x better than your first half.
This is a contrarian show.
Not only is the number one standing podcast on the internet, we have the most contrarian ideas.
Last year you heard our views on Bitcoin the real estate market gold, and who is going to win the US election.

(00:21):
Today's show, You're going to hear our investment, ideas and predictions.
Today's show will be the most contrarian show you've ever heard.
Welcome to The Best Half Show.
Mark, we had a really fun discussion the other day about some of our past predictions.
Let's review a couple of them.
For those who've been following our podcast since the beginning, mark and I agree on a few things.
We disagree on most things, from an investment perspective and some health ideas.

(00:44):
But what we learned is, two men can have complete different opinions on things, and actually both be right.
Gold has been the number one performer, of all the asset classes in the past year and Bitcoin's number two.
Even though we both have different opinions on it, we were right about that.
we both agreed on the real estate, collapse.
Happening, across North America and other markets around the world.

(01:05):
Maybe you want to talk about some of the predictions we made and some of the things that have come true.
Sure.
we talked about the stock market being overvalued, real estate market being overvalued.
equities in general being overvalued.
I am a big fan of gold.
I believe that we are heading into what's called a capital rotation event.
This happens four times a century, when, investors panic out of equities rush into safe things.

(01:29):
Like gold, precious metals, energy, agriculture, things you can actually hold.
That's one of my biggest predictions for the next few years the physical world's going to make a massive resurgence.
A lot of people are, big fans of digital and think the world exciting with AI incredible things that are happening.
But I think there's going to be a rude awakening for people saying, wow, the physical world still really matters.

(01:53):
we need food, we need shelter, we need, factors for production and that sort of thing.
So I think proven to be accurate.
While that's probably one of the biggest questions for me is Bitcoin a risk asset like tech stocks or is it more a safety asset like gold And certainly a lot of people who hold Bitcoin think of it as digital gold.
It's called digital gold.

(02:13):
they even show it as a gold piece, which I think is not, by accident.
Risk assets, were overvalued and just ready for a spark.
People are saying Trump is doing this with tariffs.
As Scott Vicenta said, this stuff was massively overvalued and was Tinder waiting for a spark to happen.
I don't think Trump is making necessarily stocks go down, in our August show, we did talk about how overvalued the market was, and it was ready for crash.

(02:37):
We talked about Warren Buffet going into cash.
A lot of that's been happening.
Jamie Diamond selling all the shares.
We knew the market was overvalued.
What Bessette said was really interesting, he said that it's really the mag seven that would've been overvalued.
It's a Mag seven problem, not a MAGA problem.
I'm still a big believer in the mag seven, long term I think, tech wins.
In terms of the last, few months, it's not been very good for a lot of these tech companies.

(02:58):
Probably 'cause they're overvalued.
What we'll see in the future is interesting.
The next five years.
What do you see happening in the next five years? I know we have different paths in terms of ideas and how we're going to reach those things in the next five years, so I do think price is important.
you can have a stock or any asset that.
Is fabulous.
But if you're paying too much, you're taking a big risk.
I think Mag seven, companies have a long way to fall from here.

(03:20):
People are going to be shocked at how low they go.
Especially priced in terms of barrels of oil ounces of gold or acres of farmland I would expect them to go down at least 50% from here, if not 70% I think people will be shocked at how low they go.
I'm a big fan of Chinese tech stocks.
They still may go down from here.

(03:40):
They could still go down, but they've already had their crash in 2022.
So there's not as further for it to go.
Going down, but not as much.
They're going down, three, 4%, I am very impressed with Chinese technology.
They have a massive domestic market, I really saw when I went to Thailand, how dominant Chinese brands are.

(04:01):
It's shocking.
Not just technology, in appliances, in cars, they're learning how to market Chinese companies are getting savvier this way.
So I'm a big fan of Chinese stock market.
I think if you're going to invest in regular equities, that's a great place to go.
And, maybe India, another big fan of Argentina.
Argentina has a free market leader now.

(04:22):
real estate prices have increased 50% in a year.
I think it's going to go 50% up again if you invested in Colombian real estate in 2004, as one of my friends did, you would've made a fortune.
One of the things I've heard is you'll never make more money in life than when you buy something that goes from terrible to less bad.
Argentina's been a show for like a hundred years.

(04:43):
A lot of things are broken, don't work.
A lot of things are really cheap.
I think what you're going to see potentially is some major price appreciation because the inflation has gone from over a hundred percent a year to now 12.
When inflation goes down things get better.
corruption goes down, crime goes down it's so hard when you're in an economy and there's high inflation, nobody trusts each other.
People getting rid of their money all the time, it's really hard.

(05:05):
I think Argentina is going to be a great place to be.
In fact, I think it's going to have more wealth increase than any other country on Earth for the next 20 years.
Elon Musk is getting behind it.
He's really excited about that.
One of the reasons I think Argentina is going to do well is it's a commodities powerhouse.
Argentina is a world-class exporter of all kinds of stuff like food metals and, energy They're drilling for oil there, they're finding it.

(05:28):
So I think a commodities powerhouse like Argentina is going to, do very well.
if Russia wasn't so weird, that would be another one.
A commodities powerhouse, but I don't know what's going on with Ukraine if you are investing in, natural resources, especially gold, I think gold's going to do better than anything.
Because that is cash.
Even better than cash is gold, right? gold is cash.

(05:49):
That's increased 40% over the last year.
As people panic out of, risk things, they want to go to safety.
gold historically has been safety and so I think that's going to do very well.
Anything else that also has done well in the 1970s.
That was the era of stagflation.
the economy is soft, demand is low, but inflation is still stubbornly high.

(06:10):
If you go to the grocery store, it's still there.
That's what the seventies were like.
The three best things to own in the 1970s.
One was gold, second is farmland, third was oil.
If you were in those things, you're making 10, 12 x.
That doesn't mean abandon your tech stocks.
one of the things that really blew my mind is there's nothing that will beat a truly balanced portfolio.
I've had the same opinion for years, but, because I've had this opinion, been underweighted in US tech stocks and didn't get to ride the Nvidia wave up.

(06:38):
I didn't get to ride the Google wave up.
I still did okay, but I would've done better if I actually had a balanced portfolio.
So if there's one thing I would encourage you and everybody to do is have a truly balanced portfolio, which 40% equities, 20% commodities, 20% gold, 20% fixed income.
People these days are like 80, 90% at least equities.
cause equities includes your real estate.

(06:59):
So they're like 90% equities.
They don't have this other stuff.
My opinion is the opposite of Mark's.
I believe we live in an age of technology.
If you did a 40 year study and only invest in the top five, tech stocks, every year, and you equally weigh them every year, so you'd have to rebalance 'em every year.
over a 40 year period, which is a long period, you're over 40%.

(07:20):
I do believe in Bitcoin, for many reasons.
One of them is the adoption that's starting to happen.
Jack Dorsey owns 40% of all the terminals every time you go into a store business.
Jack Dorsey's coming square, they control 40% of the market.
And he's made it, publicly clear.
Within next year, they're going to be using Bitcoin and all these terminals.
That's just one company, that's one that has 40%.

(07:41):
Then you've got MasterCard, one of the biggest payment companies in the world adopting Bitcoin.
The adoption is off the charts.
You have to look at some of the bigger trends.
To me it's like the internet was like in 1998, we people like, oh, this is crazy.
It's not going to work.
but the growth curve for 15 years has been incredible.
I'm not saying it's the best investment in the world, but it does have a proven track record over 60% a year, 15 years, even in the last year, which has been really volatile.

(08:03):
So what I like about it, there's scarcity only 21 million, 70% of it never gets sold.
People just hold it forever.
Only 30% trades it.
what I like about Bitcoin is there's only 21 million.
There's a couple million, coins to be mined left.
And there's very few players that are dominating Michael Sailor and BlackRock, a few guys control it I think we've never seen a more pro business administration from Trump if you listen to all of the guys that are running the government for the next four years.

(08:28):
You can't find a more pro Bitcoin group.
So I'm a big believer in Bitcoin and I think it's a great buying opportunity in my opinion.
I'll challenge that, in a number of ways.
The adoption is not there.
There's lots of people and those people are really here in North America, there's a big world out there in Asia Africa and South America where they don't give a flying fuck about Bitcoin.

(08:49):
Not the way they save.
In fact, digital gold savings accounts.
They have all kinds of things that we don't have here.
People say, you can't walk through your airport, you can't fly somewhere with your gold.
In terms of adoption, it's actually never been lower in Bitcoin.
People aren't using it anymore.
Make payments with it and received payments with it.
That doesn't happen anymore.
Bitcoin could go up and down by 5% in a day.
Who wants to take that risk? maybe four or five years ago, people actually used it for payments.

(09:14):
It's not used as payments anymore.
Even a lot of Bitcoin maxes now admit that it's a store of value.
Gold's been around 5,000 years.
Bitcoin's been around for 14 years.
Bitcoin is super volatile.
Gold is a lot more stable, and gold is used around the world.
Gold is used, China, India, and central banks aren't stacking Bitcoin.
They're stacking gold.

(09:34):
the wealthiest families in the world are stacking gold.
They don't stack Bitcoin.
That's my biggest problem with Bitcoin it doesn't do anything.
It's not a good medium exchange because stable coins are better.
It's not a medium of account, who prices things in terms of Bitcoin.
We price things in terms of dollars, the other is store of value, at best Bitcoin is a speculation that it will be a store of value in the future.

(09:56):
That's a hell of a bet, right? And so maybe at 20,000 a coin, that's a good bet.
At 80,000 not as good.
Certainly at a hundred thousand it was really, not a good speculation.
Bitcoiners often say Zoom out.
And so you'll have people on X saying, look, Bitcoin sucks.
And then Bitcoin actually say, zoom out, let's look at the last 14 years.

(10:19):
Let's look at how well Bitcoin has done.
I would say, let's zoom out more.
Let's zoom out 200 years back and look at.
A number of bubbles and mass illusions have happened in history.
This isn't the first one and that's what I think it is.
I think it's a mass illusion, and honestly, the smarter you are, the more likely you are to be taken in by it.

(10:39):
So you should be complimented by that.
if you look at gold for the last 50 years, One of the best performing assets.
Look at equities and you look at the charts 50 years real estate.
You have to pick the right equities.
If use the for example, index, if you look it's actually shocked me at how well gold has performed especially because it's a manipulated and suppressed asset.
If you look over almost any timeframe.

(11:00):
Five years, 10 years, 20 years.
Over the last 20 years it's up 638%.
Some equities have done well.
But you really have to pick the right ones.
if you look at gold from the eighties, up till now.
It took sometimes 30 years just to get your money back.
So everything has its season.
Again, if you want to lose 50 year charts, that's fine.
But not going to perform very well.
What people don't talk about when they talk about investments is taxes.

(11:24):
taxes.
Take 50% usually of our gains.
When you look at how people can purchase Bitcoin have it in a digital wallet take it to a country that doesn't tax Bitcoin you pay zero tax.
To other assets.
It's very difficult to do that.
So I think you have to look at the tax consequences of our investments as well.
Investment guys, always forget about, oh, we have to pay taxes.
There is capital gains taxes here.

(11:45):
In Canada, the States and most places in the world.
The thing about selling Bitcoin is very easy because it's a digital wallet.
In Portugal where you don't pay tax on it, you can do that.
So in gold, let's use gold as an analogy.
If you want to sell your gold, first of all, if you're in London, you can't sell it in London because you want to get the highest price, you want to sell it in New York.
You actually have to go to Switzerland to melt it down to a certain size that's the only time they'll take it in New York.

(12:09):
That's not true.
if you're a central bank and you have huge amounts of it.
it's very easy to sell gold.
It's very easy to sell it quietly if you want to you could sell it for cash or anything you want.
You are supposed to pay capital gains taxes on it.
If it's trackable, if you really want it to be quiet, you probably can do it.
It's very hard not to track when you're getting on a plane.
With gold, right? But that's a weird thing.

(12:29):
nobody travels anywhere with suitcase full of gold.
Yeah.
That doesn't happen.
The reason they don't is 'cause no one actually uses gold.
In my life, and I've traveled enormously, I've never actually, I've never seen anyone ever do gold transaction.
But this is my whole point about when people say, there's not enough Bitcoin adoption.
I see a bitcoin.
ATM now going into every Costco in the world, but I don't see any gold, ATM machines.
That's because it's not used that way.

(12:50):
It's not used that way.
It has a very specific purpose.
Store of value.
And it's the best in the world at that.
It was really crazy that for 200 or 300 years people actually used gold coins with a number on it.
Yeah.
That was a weird time in history.
The point is that money is separating into its component pieces.
Bitcoin doesn't do any of it.
Whereas gold does its job incredibly well.
You're right.
Nobody's gonna go out and spend it because that's not its job.

(13:13):
Actually people don't even really sell it.
If you are a gold hoarder, you're gonna just give it to your kids tax free.
The difference with Bitcoin and why I think it's the better, store of value.
That's why they call it digital gold.
It's only been around 14 years.
How could it be a store of value? So what's happening now is you can lend against your Bitcoin.
I can borrow against my Bitcoin.
I can buy houses with Bitcoin.

(13:33):
So now there's all kinds of credible institutions where I can take Bitcoin and put it into a Bitcoin vault and get paid on this just like loaning money.
You can't do these things with gold.
People are borrowing money against gold.
That's how I bought my farmhouse.
You don't know anybody who owns gold and you don't know much about it.
Gold has been around for thousands of years.
So walk me through how somebody would use gold to buy real estate? Gimme an example.

(13:56):
Easy.
Yeah.
So you take your gold.
You, bring it somewhere.
People value it.
And, they will lend you against your at very low interest rates.
But you're talking about real institutions that have websites so I'm not going to tell you the name of the company.
This is, a merchant bank.
It's got branches in 50 countries around the world.
they have someone here in Toronto and they'll lend you money against your gold.

(14:17):
I borrowed half a million.
And decent interest rates.
It's like prime plus one gold is now a tier one reserve asset.
That's a very special thing.
Bitcoin isn't.
Bitcoin not considered anything.
By big like the US government, big banks or whatever.
So this is actually a big, and so one of the reasons why the price of gold is going up so much.
Yeah.
Because normally, like it's very weird for the price of gold to go up 40% in a year.

(14:39):
That's the reason why it's not happened before is because the price of gold is suppressed.
Many at $3,000 an ounce.
I don't know what the price is.
It's a lot higher than 3000.
It's not posted anywhere.
These are private transactions that happen.
the fact that you can buy gold at this price is a gift.
It should not be this cheap, and it's this cheap because the price is suppressed and because most of the gold that's traded are futures.

(15:04):
99% plus are paper gold.
You can see this in the charts.
You'll see the price gets slammed for $30 on no news what's happened is someone's just bought.
Or went short, $8 billion worth of gold and dumped it all at once and they did it so they can manipulate the price and so that they can manipulate people's minds on it.
If all you did was buy gold the Asian day and then sell it.

(15:29):
When the Western markets open, you would make so much money.
If you were to buy it during the Western hours, you're gonna be flat.
That's the extent to which it's manipulated and one of the reasons why gold is one of the best investments you can make right now it's artificially low.
I know people say, wow, it's so high.
It's at an all time high.
at one point Bitcoin was at an all time high too, at $3,000.

(15:51):
And then it went to 108.
I think that's probably going to happen with gold too, at some point this manipulation scheme is going to break down and you're going to see it achieve its full value.
It is strange how, gold trades for different prices based on which country, which market.
It's very complicated.
What I like about Bitcoin, it trades 24 7 around the world.

(16:11):
We're all paying the same.
For you, 14 years is a long time.
But Zoom out.
If you're to look at like the last a hundred years, you look at the last 200 years, you see a few things.
First of all, again, in the 1970s, gold was the best performing asset, I wouldn't say have a hundred percent of your assets in gold.
There's research that shows the optimum portfolio to do well in any timeframe.

(16:32):
The answer is 19% gold.
It's higher than any investment advisor would ever say.
The most aggressive would say 10% typically, but it's 19%.
It's really high.
If we have a return of the seventies or the return of the 1930s, your stocks are gonna do really poorly, right? Or seventies.
Your bonds did incredibly poorly, but you're right, like how many people were smart enough? To sell their gold in 1980 and buy bonds with it.

(17:00):
Very few, but that was the exact right thing to do.
I remember mentioning it to you.
Hey, you should probably consider selling your Bitcoin at a hundred thousand dollars a coin.
And you're like, no, it's my top performing asset.
Why would I do that? I'm like, you should do it because it's your top performing asset.
When things go up, too high, too fast, that's actually for the next decade, probably the opposite that's gonna do well.
My dad did a really great thing.

(17:21):
I don't think he had much gold, but what he did do is he bought bonds in 19 80, 19 81 when he was getting paid 20% for Canada savings bonds.
That 20% went down to, almost nothing in 20 years.
Very contrarian at the time.
bonds were called, certificates of guaranteed confiscation because inflation was more than 20.
So inflation's 28%, you're gonna get a guaranteed minus 8%, right? People are saying you should put your money in gold.

(17:48):
Gold's going up 30% a year.
Zoom out because it doesn't always go up that much.
If you look at the history of gold, it's only a couple years, then it happens like 20 years later.
They're very short bursts that gold has a couple year run.
What I like about Bitcoin, it's very consistent, I think we can both be right about, different ideas.
I appreciate your opinion on Bitcoin.
I will keep stacking Bitcoin.

(18:08):
You're gonna keep stacking gold.
And I think that's all right.
What's interesting though is on the Mag seven, when I look at Google, this is a company that does a billion dollars every day in revenue, and I don't see that revenue declining.
You can't function 24 hours without using a Google product.
They don't actually manufacture anything.
So they're not worried about these tariff things.
I think about Google and I think it's a great long term bet.

(18:30):
Apple was one of my best, actually my best performing stock for a very long time.
I sold it a few weeks ago.
But they're getting crushed by the tariffs because they're a manufacturing company.
They're getting crushed by not just the Chinese tariffs, but all the other countries.
They moved to Vietnam, and they're getting crushed.
So I can see Apple being targeted.
It's very hard for me to make, an argument like, oh, now would be a good time to sell Google, because over the next 10 years they're going to continue to own the world.

(18:53):
Their earnings have not up that much.
Apple's is worse.
I've been saying that for years.
I'm like, what's going on? Apple's earnings are not growing.
Maybe the only thing they're selling more are their dongles.
you need like four dongles to run your Apple products these days.
Steve Jobs, he's spinning in his grave.
Google's not been growing its earnings very much, and I don't think Google is well placed to crush it in the AI revolution.

(19:14):
YouTube, if they were to spin off YouTube, it would be like the mag.
They have a company called Waymo.
Which is an incredible cyber taxi bus.
The margins in that business are off the charts and that's why I think Tesla's undervalued right now.
It's 50% off.
It's undervalued.
In a few months when they get into the cyber taxi business, you value the company completely differently.
Google's core business is not what it used to be.
It's not really growing what's really Tesla is potentially the cyber taxi business and especially the optimists robot business.

(19:39):
When I drove here today, the car drove by itself the entire way.
These cars actually work and they do self-drive.
So when they get in a cyber taxi business and the car comes and picks you up and there's no driver.
That's a massive margin business.
So it's a game changer.
The question is what is the hard value versus the speculation value? Sometimes speculations really work out.
We don't know how good that cyber taxi business is gonna be.

(20:00):
Or the optimist business.
Optimists could get crushed by Chinese competition.
We don't know, but if you look at Uber, take a look at the value of Uber they still have to pay their drivers.
Imagine the Uber model where you're not paying for drivers.
The model is incredibly profitable.
So then what is a fair value to pay per share? It's overvalued for that speculation.
You might be right.
But I think it's better to pay a hundred dollars a share, which is probably where Tesla's going than $300 a share.

(20:24):
Based on speculation.
And it's a risk.
It may work out, it may not work out.
I'm a big fan of value investing I do love Warren Buffet's approach.
in real estate, I'm a value investor and that's why I've done well.
But in technology it's a bit different.
You have to see the future.
And I've been a Tesla customer and I guess 12 years, a bunch of their cars.
Every time Elon's made a prediction, it's always turned out to be right.
For, example.
He comes up with his model y.

(20:46):
On his introduction night, he says, this won't just be the best selling SUV in the world.
it'll be the best selling car of any category, every country in the world.
And then it turns out to be true two years in a row.
It'll happen again this year.
You never bet against Elon.
This is a guy that has an incredible propensity to be right about technology he's saying now this will not just be the best selling robot.
This will be the best selling product of all time, of any product.

(21:09):
I think he's right.
Is it gonna take two years, three years? You're gonna buy based on CEO's hype.
I've been a customer for 12 years.
I've seen everything that Elon has said.
There's a reason he is the richest guy in the world.
I don't think you bet against the world's smartest, resourceful guy.
It is hard to take bets against that guy.
I heard the same when Tesla was $430 a share.
Even he admitted it was overpriced, but I said, you should absolutely short Tesla.

(21:30):
I only like to short things are a sure bet.
Tesla bulls are crazy.
They could bid it up to $800.
I said at $430.
It's insane.
The amount of growth they would need would exceed the planet's resources.
Marc, he exceeded that value already.
They had a stock split.
It went from 430 a share now it's 250.
Yeah.
'cause it's stock split.
The stock is down 50% from the all time high.

(21:50):
That would've been a great short sell.
All the people who were buying Tesla $400.
Who would buy? Tesla 400.
They've all lost huge amounts of money.
They haven't lost it 'cause they haven't sold guys that buy Bitcoin, just hold it.
If I'm up 400% for four years, I'm not down today.
I'm not selling it.
Guys buy real companies.
Google Apple or Tesla, these are gonna be there for five years.
They're not traders.
I agree with you.
Traders are going to lose their shirts.

(22:11):
But I'm not a trader.
Guys that are buying for long term, they look at real businesses use every freaking day of their lives.
They look around the world and go, I don't know anyone that wouldn't use this.
They're like, I'm going to bet on that.
That's what I'm talking about.
It's a different kind of investment.
I have stocks for over 15 years, I totally get that.
In a technology business, you could lose a lot if you don't.
Buy at a good price.
a great example is Amazon.

(22:33):
Yeah.
And now I would say, I would argue Amazon's actually good buy right now.
15 times earnings.
Yeah.
It's certainly a lot better than it was.
Amazon's growing at 30% a year.
It's trading at 15 times earnings.
That's amazing.
Like Apple five years ago.
There are actually some good buys now based on this tariffs.
We'll see what's gonna happen, but there's some bargains there, there will be some bargains I think when people make investment decisions pick a company that you really love, I want to be in this company for the next few years.

(22:56):
Beginning these short term things, that's the problem.
Yeah, no, I agree on the long term.
The margin of safety, in Tesla is low, even at $250 a share.
If it was a hundred dollars a share, that would be a lot better.
Amazon of all the Mag seven is probably the best buy right now.
I still wouldn't buy it because the margin of safety isn't there and better buys out there.
I like the Chinese equivalent of every one of these stocks.

(23:18):
Instead of buying Amazon, I'd buy Meine in China.
I'd buy jd.com,
I'd buy Alibaba.
The multiples are just way lower on those.
They call it the deep seek, moment.
That's when deep seek had their ai, come out and everyone's AI companies are overvalued in the US and they're equalizing.
The Mag seven are starting to equalize what the Chinese tech companies are trading for.
So I think there's some equalization going on.

(23:40):
The Chinese we're definitely a bargain and it looks like the US ones are going to, but I just would not bet against anything American right now.
I just can't imagine over the next four or eight years.
Anyone betting against America is, a good bet.
Think what they're setting up is incredible.
Now there's a difference between betting against and not betting on, so I am betting against, I think in this market you have to have some short bets.

(24:02):
I do, I'm shorting, a number of American mid-size restaurant chains.
These are like Cheesecake Factory and these kind of companies.
They are, getting hammered because the price of their, food keeps going up and the demand for $22 Chipotle burritos, is not there.
I would say it's the ozempic effect.
Since Ozempic is becoming commonplace, people are eating less.

(24:22):
They're eating a lot of that crap food less.
There's definitely a correlation between the ozempic effect, and companies, but for me, it's a lot more basic than that the economy sucks.
We have a shortage of demand, but the price of inputs is stubbornly high.
In that environment, a number of companies are going to get, severely hurt.
Restaurants, hotels, airlines, are going to be hurting the next few years.

(24:43):
Technology will do better.
cause you're right, their asset light.
But that said you're still paying a lot for those.
I did bet against Nvidia when it was a little higher.
I wouldn't do that now.
There are a lot of challenges in the us.
I think that, Trump and his team have, a lot of ground to move here.
I think they're doing a lot of the right things.
It's a challenging environment.
if American companies are increasingly gonna be selling in America, because now we have.

(25:04):
The sort of tariff stuff.
The international market may not be as favorable to American companies, you've gotta look at American domestic demand and I'm just not seeing it.
Whereas I think China is increasingly having a world to sell to.
I saw it when I was in Thailand.
So many BYD cars on the road.
There wasn't a single Tesla car on the road.
This is something that a lot of people in North America are not seeing.

(25:25):
The Chinese subsidize, the BYD cars, it's a great car and they subsidize it.
So it makes sense that they're giving everybody cheap electric cars.
For me, the big difference is I'm so pro-America I think finally there's an administration and Trump's been talking about for 40 years.
He was running full page articles New York Times 40 years ago, talking about this doesn't make sense.
Over the next four years when he eliminates income taxes, to anyone making less than $150,000, they can pull that off.

(25:49):
That's amazing.
And it's working in places Florida.
There's no state taxes, Texas, no state taxes.
That strategy prior to, 1913, they had no income taxes.
It was all based on tariffs.
A strategy is very painful in the short term, but it's going to work and you're seeing it.
Interest rates are gonna fall.
you're seeing oil falling like crazy.
The average person is going to feel like, oh my gosh, my mortgage, rate just went down.
My gas is so much cheaper.

(26:10):
We're noticing it here already.
I think people are going to see that.
But what I love about Trump's strategy is America first.
If you want to do business in America, you manufacture in America.
That's going to be amazing for you.
I think we covered a lot of really interesting ground today.
Hopefully this is, useful for our audience, if there's one thing to take away from it build a balanced portfolio.
Even buy Bitcoin if you must.
Diversification, some gold, commodities, US stocks, international stocks, have some real estate, because that does win in any timeframe.

(26:36):
Thanks everybody for joining us today in the best Half Show.
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