The Liberals are in their deepest political valley while Labor sits atop the highest mountain after their emphatic May 2025 federal election victory. But history tells us this certainty is an illusion.
At this CIS forum, Tom Switzer presented his analysis of political upheaval and the unpredictability of democratic politics, before joining CIS Executive Director Michael Stutchbury and former NSW Premier Bob Carr onstage for a wide-ranging Q&A. Together, the panel explored how unforeseeable events derail governments, the cyclical nature of political fortunes, and why no party's dominance is ever permanent.
Tom Switzer argued that history shows what's down can only go up, and what's certain can only come unstuck — from Churchill's shock 1945 defeat to Trump's unlikely comeback, from Whitlam's dismissal to Morrison's miracle win. The apparent hegemony of any political party is always largely illusory. Governments stuff up; and when they do, a capable opposition with a sound public-policy agenda can take advantage.
Michael Stutchbury and Bob Carr drew on their extensive experience in politics and media to examine how ideas, decisions and unexpected events shape political outcomes in ways pundits rarely predict.
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