June 5, 2025 • 10 mins
A black swan refers to unexpected, significant events that defy conventional wisdom until they occur. Nassim Nicholas Taleb illustrates this through Lebanon's civil war and other disruptions, like the rise of cloud computing and COVID-19's impact on the pharmaceutical industry. Successful leaders adapt by reexamining and updating their mental frameworks to navigate rapid changes effectively.
#BlackSwan, #Disruptions, #NassimTaleb, #Leadership, #CloudComputing, #COVID19, #PharmaceuticalIndustry
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome to the Colig Experience episode. Today we're diving into bold insights, innovative
(00:10):
experimentation and groundbreaking leadership strategies that redefine success. In this
episode, we'll unravel the concept of black swan events and explore how leaders can adapt
to unexpected disruptions with flexibility and foresight. Ready to transform your perspective?
Let's dive in. A black swan is a term for phenomena that were considered impossible
(00:36):
until the moment they suddenly revealed themselves as very real. The original black swans were
discovered in Australia in the 17th century after they had been unknown to the western world until
then. The person responsible for the modern flourishing of the black swan concept is Naseem
Nicholas Taleb, who wrote a bestseller by this name. Taleb, a Lebanese Christian whose family
(01:02):
fled Lebanon following the civil war that broke out there in the 1970s, describes in his book's
introduction how the situation in Lebanon, which had been a relatively modern, secular and western
country, began to change due to demographic shifts. He tells of family members who remained in Lebanon
(01:22):
and continued to tell themselves that the changes happening in Lebanese society
were temporary and had exhausted themselves that things couldn't possibly get worse,
and then they did get worse, and worse still. And even worse, Taleb brings his family's story
and Lebanon's situation in the 70s as an example of an unexpected disruption event, a black swan.
(01:49):
To deal with disrupted reality, we prepare contingency plans. But what are these plans
based on? They're based on what we know. On our experience, the problem is that this experience
is only useful when the rules of the game in the new disrupted reality remain close to the rules
from before the change. When that's the case, our experience may indeed serve us well,
(02:16):
but often the situation is different. Taleb's story, which is essentially the familiar tale of
the frog that slowly boils in a pot of gradually heating water, illuminates our human difficulty
in catching dramatic changes when they happen gradually. One reason for this is that from an
(02:36):
evolutionary perspective, our brains only came down from the trees yesterday and aren't adapted
to absorb the dizzying pace of change in our era. Our brain's working assumption is that the world
changes at a linear pace. Since the change between yesterday and today can't be that large,
we prefer to open the same drawers where we keep the tools that worked for us in the past.
(03:01):
Another reason for the slowly boiling frog phenomenon is that the gradual and relatively
slow nature of change allows us to make adjustments to the narrative we form about the situation,
giving us enough time to build a good enough excuse not to act. Consider what we witnessed in the
software industry during the early days of cloud computing. Many established enterprise software
(03:27):
companies continued operating under the assumption that their traditional on-premise licensing models
would remain dominant. We watched as these organizations made incremental adjustments
to their narratives, convincing themselves that cloud adoption was just a temporary trend for
small startups, not serious enterprises. Each quarter, as cloud competitors gained more market
(03:53):
share, these companies found new explanations for why their traditional approach was still valid.
The water temperature kept rising, but they kept adjusting to it, rather than recognizing the
fundamental shift occurring in their industry. In another part of his book, Taleb tells the story
of a turkey in the days before Thanksgiving. Our protagonist receives a good portion of food each
(04:18):
day, so he'll grow and fatten up. With each passing day, he becomes accustomed to the situation.
If he were human, he would assume, based on his experience, that what happened yesterday would
probably happen tomorrow as well. The turkey's experience serves him faithfully until Thanksgiving
arrives, and then, in one blow, reality changes. Instead of receiving another portion of food,
(04:44):
he's sent where all Thanksgiving turkeys go. It's important to notice the distinction between
the turkey and the frog. While both stories end in the same place, on someone's plate,
their disruption differs in character. The frog experiences long, gradual disruption,
where at each stage, she has time to adjust to the new situation, so she doesn't act to adapt
(05:08):
herself to the change. In contrast, our turkey's disruption is immediate. He simply doesn't have
time to adapt to the change. If in the case of slow emerging disruption like the boiling frog,
there was still an opportunity to prepare for change. In the case of sharp, rapid change like
the turkey, that possibility doesn't exist. We wake up one day and discover that reality
(05:33):
has simply changed beneath our feet. We saw this turkey-like disruption unfold dramatically in the
pharmaceutical industry when COVID-19 emerged. One day, biotech companies that had been focused on
their traditional drug development pipelines suddenly found themselves in a completely
transformed landscape. Companies like Moderna, which had been working on mRNA technology for years
(05:59):
without major commercial success, overnight became central players in a global health crisis. Meanwhile,
established pharmaceutical giants found their carefully planned research priorities and market
assumptions completely upended. There was no gradual adjustment period. The industry rules
changed in a matter of weeks, not years. When something becomes disrupted, meaning when something
(06:26):
doesn't behave according to our expectations, we can either try to force it into the existing
drawers we already have, or we can build new drawers for it. The default choice for most people,
most of the time, is the first option, what Kahneman calls System 1, thinking in his book,
thinking fast and slow. This behaviour likely developed because of its survival advantages.
(06:51):
If we see a creature walking on four legs with spotted fur and sharp teeth, we immediately
find the appropriate drawer in our brain, labelled Tiger. From that drawer, we quickly pull out the
protocol for behaviour when encountering a Tiger, which reads, dangerous, run away. However, the
thing about disruptions is that sometimes they create situations for which there is no appropriate
(07:17):
drawer, and if we try to use the experience we've accumulated, we'll act contrary to the new rules of
the game. To summarise, we are creatures who think within fixed, predetermined frameworks.
Even if reality continues to show us with signs and wonders that the framework we've chosen
doesn't fit and we need to build a new drawer, our tendency will be to continue thinking within
(07:42):
the existing frameworks we've created for ourselves. You might be thinking of the word
conception right now, but reality keeps becoming disrupted at an increasing pace,
which essentially requires us to be able to build new thinking frameworks constantly,
and this isn't simple or even natural for most of us. One way to deal with the need to constantly
(08:05):
build new thinking frameworks is to learn not to become attached to existing frameworks,
to know how to give them up quickly, not to cling to what worked in the past, but to part ways and
build something new in its place. For some of us, this will come more easily, and for others it will
be like parting the Red Sea. Either way, one of the important leadership features for those
(08:28):
leading organisations at this time is the ability to release their grip on previous assumptions
and perceptions. The agility of the organisation depends on the flexibility of those who lead it,
and the path to flexibility for leaders begins with their ability to courageously and honestly
re-examine the assumptions and perceptions through which they see reality. This becomes
(08:54):
particularly challenging because our success often reinforces our attachment to the frameworks
that brought us that success. When we've built our careers and organisations around certain mental
models, questioning those models feels like questioning our very identity. Yet this is
exactly what the accelerating pace of change demands from us. The most effective leaders we
(09:19):
encounter are those who have learned to hold their strategic assumptions lightly, constantly
testing them against emerging realities rather than defending them against contradictory evidence.
They understand that in a world of increasing black swan events, the ability to rapidly shift
mental models isn't just a nice to have skill, it's essential for survival and continued relevance.
(09:49):
That's a wrap for today's podcast. We've explored how black swan events,
like those described by Nassim Nikolas Taleb, challenge us to adapt and let go of outdated
frameworks, reminding leaders to stay flexible in the face of unexpected changes.
Don't forget to like, subscribe and share this episode with your friends and colleagues
(10:10):
so they can also stay updated on the latest news and gain powerful insights. Stay tuned for more updates.
Welcome to the Colig Experience episode. Today we're diving into bold insights, innovative
(00:10):
experimentation and groundbreaking leadership strategies that redefine success. In this
episode, we'll unravel the concept of black swan events and explore how leaders can adapt
to unexpected disruptions with flexibility and foresight. Ready to transform your perspective?
Let's dive in. A black swan is a term for phenomena that were considered impossible
(00:36):
until the moment they suddenly revealed themselves as very real. The original black swans were
discovered in Australia in the 17th century after they had been unknown to the western world until
then. The person responsible for the modern flourishing of the black swan concept is Naseem
Nicholas Taleb, who wrote a bestseller by this name. Taleb, a Lebanese Christian whose family
(01:02):
fled Lebanon following the civil war that broke out there in the 1970s, describes in his book's
introduction how the situation in Lebanon, which had been a relatively modern, secular and western
country, began to change due to demographic shifts. He tells of family members who remained in Lebanon
(01:22):
and continued to tell themselves that the changes happening in Lebanese society
were temporary and had exhausted themselves that things couldn't possibly get worse,
and then they did get worse, and worse still. And even worse, Taleb brings his family's story
and Lebanon's situation in the 70s as an example of an unexpected disruption event, a black swan.
(01:49):
To deal with disrupted reality, we prepare contingency plans. But what are these plans
based on? They're based on what we know. On our experience, the problem is that this experience
is only useful when the rules of the game in the new disrupted reality remain close to the rules
from before the change. When that's the case, our experience may indeed serve us well,
(02:16):
but often the situation is different. Taleb's story, which is essentially the familiar tale of
the frog that slowly boils in a pot of gradually heating water, illuminates our human difficulty
in catching dramatic changes when they happen gradually. One reason for this is that from an
(02:36):
evolutionary perspective, our brains only came down from the trees yesterday and aren't adapted
to absorb the dizzying pace of change in our era. Our brain's working assumption is that the world
changes at a linear pace. Since the change between yesterday and today can't be that large,
we prefer to open the same drawers where we keep the tools that worked for us in the past.
(03:01):
Another reason for the slowly boiling frog phenomenon is that the gradual and relatively
slow nature of change allows us to make adjustments to the narrative we form about the situation,
giving us enough time to build a good enough excuse not to act. Consider what we witnessed in the
software industry during the early days of cloud computing. Many established enterprise software
(03:27):
companies continued operating under the assumption that their traditional on-premise licensing models
would remain dominant. We watched as these organizations made incremental adjustments
to their narratives, convincing themselves that cloud adoption was just a temporary trend for
small startups, not serious enterprises. Each quarter, as cloud competitors gained more market
(03:53):
share, these companies found new explanations for why their traditional approach was still valid.
The water temperature kept rising, but they kept adjusting to it, rather than recognizing the
fundamental shift occurring in their industry. In another part of his book, Taleb tells the story
of a turkey in the days before Thanksgiving. Our protagonist receives a good portion of food each
(04:18):
day, so he'll grow and fatten up. With each passing day, he becomes accustomed to the situation.
If he were human, he would assume, based on his experience, that what happened yesterday would
probably happen tomorrow as well. The turkey's experience serves him faithfully until Thanksgiving
arrives, and then, in one blow, reality changes. Instead of receiving another portion of food,
(04:44):
he's sent where all Thanksgiving turkeys go. It's important to notice the distinction between
the turkey and the frog. While both stories end in the same place, on someone's plate,
their disruption differs in character. The frog experiences long, gradual disruption,
where at each stage, she has time to adjust to the new situation, so she doesn't act to adapt
(05:08):
herself to the change. In contrast, our turkey's disruption is immediate. He simply doesn't have
time to adapt to the change. If in the case of slow emerging disruption like the boiling frog,
there was still an opportunity to prepare for change. In the case of sharp, rapid change like
the turkey, that possibility doesn't exist. We wake up one day and discover that reality
(05:33):
has simply changed beneath our feet. We saw this turkey-like disruption unfold dramatically in the
pharmaceutical industry when COVID-19 emerged. One day, biotech companies that had been focused on
their traditional drug development pipelines suddenly found themselves in a completely
transformed landscape. Companies like Moderna, which had been working on mRNA technology for years
(05:59):
without major commercial success, overnight became central players in a global health crisis. Meanwhile,
established pharmaceutical giants found their carefully planned research priorities and market
assumptions completely upended. There was no gradual adjustment period. The industry rules
changed in a matter of weeks, not years. When something becomes disrupted, meaning when something
(06:26):
doesn't behave according to our expectations, we can either try to force it into the existing
drawers we already have, or we can build new drawers for it. The default choice for most people,
most of the time, is the first option, what Kahneman calls System 1, thinking in his book,
thinking fast and slow. This behaviour likely developed because of its survival advantages.
(06:51):
If we see a creature walking on four legs with spotted fur and sharp teeth, we immediately
find the appropriate drawer in our brain, labelled Tiger. From that drawer, we quickly pull out the
protocol for behaviour when encountering a Tiger, which reads, dangerous, run away. However, the
thing about disruptions is that sometimes they create situations for which there is no appropriate
(07:17):
drawer, and if we try to use the experience we've accumulated, we'll act contrary to the new rules of
the game. To summarise, we are creatures who think within fixed, predetermined frameworks.
Even if reality continues to show us with signs and wonders that the framework we've chosen
doesn't fit and we need to build a new drawer, our tendency will be to continue thinking within
(07:42):
the existing frameworks we've created for ourselves. You might be thinking of the word
conception right now, but reality keeps becoming disrupted at an increasing pace,
which essentially requires us to be able to build new thinking frameworks constantly,
and this isn't simple or even natural for most of us. One way to deal with the need to constantly
(08:05):
build new thinking frameworks is to learn not to become attached to existing frameworks,
to know how to give them up quickly, not to cling to what worked in the past, but to part ways and
build something new in its place. For some of us, this will come more easily, and for others it will
be like parting the Red Sea. Either way, one of the important leadership features for those
(08:28):
leading organisations at this time is the ability to release their grip on previous assumptions
and perceptions. The agility of the organisation depends on the flexibility of those who lead it,
and the path to flexibility for leaders begins with their ability to courageously and honestly
re-examine the assumptions and perceptions through which they see reality. This becomes
(08:54):
particularly challenging because our success often reinforces our attachment to the frameworks
that brought us that success. When we've built our careers and organisations around certain mental
models, questioning those models feels like questioning our very identity. Yet this is
exactly what the accelerating pace of change demands from us. The most effective leaders we
(09:19):
encounter are those who have learned to hold their strategic assumptions lightly, constantly
testing them against emerging realities rather than defending them against contradictory evidence.
They understand that in a world of increasing black swan events, the ability to rapidly shift
mental models isn't just a nice to have skill, it's essential for survival and continued relevance.
(09:49):
That's a wrap for today's podcast. We've explored how black swan events,
like those described by Nassim Nikolas Taleb, challenge us to adapt and let go of outdated
frameworks, reminding leaders to stay flexible in the face of unexpected changes.
Don't forget to like, subscribe and share this episode with your friends and colleagues
(10:10):
so they can also stay updated on the latest news and gain powerful insights. Stay tuned for more updates.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!