Russia's Nuclear Doctrine: Coercion and Lowered Thresholds

The provided source details the evolution and current state of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons doctrine, highlighting a significant shift towards a lower threshold for first use formalized in November 2024. This change is driven by the degradation of Russia's conventional military capabilities during the conflict in Ukraine, aiming to deter Western intervention and project a more aggressive nuclear posture. The doctrine now expands its nuclear umbrella to Belarus and introduces ambiguous new triggers for nuclear response, including "critical threat to sovereignty and territorial integrity" and "massive launch of aerospace attack weapons," intentionally blurring the lines between conventional and nuclear conflict. This strategy, termed "Strategic Deterrence" by Russia, is reinforced through coercive rhetoric from officials and large-scale military exercises like Zapad-2025, which rehearse high-intensity scenarios under a nuclear threat. The document emphasizes that these changes increase the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation, necessitating a comprehensive recalibration of NATO's deterrence, communication, and crisis management protocols.

Research done with the help of artificial intelligence, and presented by two AI-generated hosts.