031 - California blue (a redistricting story)

Hello, Plug brethren and Drain cisterns.

Kempa had to take a few weeks out east for some family business, but we are BACK and ready to discuss the federal redistricting battles.

You may have heard that California is responding to Texas Republicans' redistricting push to ensure fascism in the US in 2026, with a little redistricting of their own.

What does that mean?

Well, Democrats in the Golden State are looking to gain about five seats, despite two-thirds of the state's proposed congressional districts shifting red on the new map. Four formerly Republican-leaning swing districts would soon tilt Democratic, and two others would move heavily left.

Essentially, Democrats in California could end up with as many as 48 of the state’s 52 congressional districts.

According to the Los Angeles Times, polls for this move by Governor Gavin Newsom and state Democrats are looking good:

“When voters were asked whether they agree with California’s redistricting maneuver, 46% said it was a good idea, while 36% said it was a bad idea. Slightly more, 48%, said they would vote in favor of the temporary gerrymandering efforts if it appeared on the statewide special election ballot in November. Nearly a third said they would vote no, while 20% said they were undecided.”

And according to a survey by Democratic pollster (and Newsom ally) David Binder, "57% of California voters backed the redistricting measure, while 35% opposed and 8% were undecided.”

ALREADY, millions of dollars are rolling into this fight. Jeremy White at Politico thinks this will be the most expensive ballot fight in CA history. Some stats:

• $10 million are coming from Charles Munger against the measure (he's a GOP donor who bankrolled the 2010 independent redistricting law)

• $1 million are in from SEIU in support, as well as $300,000 from businessman Andrew Hauptman

• The YES campaignalready reported some $5.8 million on July 30

This looks like a winner, yes? Possibly. It even looks good for Governor Newsom's 2028 presidential hopes:

New poll: 75 percent of registered Democratic voters said they are “excited” about the prospect of Newsom running for president, compared with 67 percent who are enthusiastic about former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Between the two high-profile Californians, the governor leads Harris 25 percent to 19 percent among the state’s registered Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents, according to the latest POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab survey found. (Mayor Pete has 13; AOC, 10)

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