The Macro Minute with Darius Dale
The Macro Minute is a daily morning podcast of what 42 Macro Founder & CEO Darius Dale is seeing in the overnight markets and where he\'s focused before the US stock market open.
Episodes
Darius Dale breaks down the market implications of rising stagflationary risks—including U.S. military posturing in the Middle East and the Trump administration’s pending Section 232 tariffs. He also explores the potential for accelerated de-dollarization following today’s FOMC meeting and the looming question of who might replace Jay Powell as Fed Chair. Plus, a heartfelt message from a longtime listener sparks a ...
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June 17, 2025 • 12 mins
In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale tackles two key questions: Is it time to buy protection, and did the BOJ just cave to bond market pressure? He breaks down market reaction to Trump’s early G7 departure, a potential dovish pivot from the BOJ, and the growing role of KISS as the optimal defense in a deepening Fourth Turning polycrisis. Plus, a client asks whether KISS is appropriate for investors in their 40s, 50...
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June 16, 2025 • 8 mins
Darius Dale breaks down how investors should respond to rising geopolitical instability, including the Israel-Iran conflict, potential U.S. involvement, and implications for Treasury markets. He also previews risks at the G7 summit, updates on Fed policy ahead of the FOMC, and answers a client question on inflation breakevens and Bitcoin.
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June 13, 2025 • 13 mins
As tensions escalate in the Middle East, Darius Dale breaks down why 42 Macro’s systematic frameworks still favor staying invested. He explains why gold—and not Treasuries—is the superior defensive asset in a Fourth Turning polycrisis, and revisits the October 2024 decision to replace fixed income in the KISS portfolio. Plus, a powerful reminder: don’t let fear—not even the fear of war—drive your portfolio decision...
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June 12, 2025 • 12 mins
In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale tackles the rising fear of foreign investors dumping U.S. Treasuries and explains why that risk is overstated—for now. He walks through the real math behind the exploding federal deficit, critiques the Trump administration’s shifting fiscal targets, and reaffirms the bullish outlook for Paradigm C. Plus, he answers whether KISS is still the right strategy for retirees seeking se...
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In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale breaks down the bullish implications of the revived U.S.-China trade framework, the emergence of a “shadow Fed” under Trump’s reported Fed Chair pick, and why Elon Musk’s pivot back toward the administration matters. He unpacks the case-shaped economy sustaining Paradigm C and explains why traditional defensives like bonds and cash are underperforming. Plus, Darius answers a cli...
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June 10, 2025 • 8 mins
In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale dissects the escalating US-China trade tensions and their implications for tech and AI sectors. Despite geopolitical noise, he argues the AI trade still has room to run amid slowing real economy growth. Darius also explains why the labor market is already feeling the disruptive effects of AI and weighs in on how markets might react to a potential Fed chair-in-waiting announcemen...
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In this episode, Darius Dale unpacks the market implications of President Trump’s escalating tensions with Elon Musk, his signals to replace Fed Chair Powell, and the renewed U.S.–China trade negotiations in London. Dale breaks down how these political dynamics intersect with inflation targeting, paradigm shifts, and investor positioning. Tune in to hear why markets remain cautious, what Paradigm C means for risk a...
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June 6, 2025 • 8 mins
In today’s Macro Minute, Darius breaks down why Wall Street keeps fighting the resilient U.S. economy despite consistently strong data. He explains how private sector balance sheets, labor hoarding, and deregulation are sustaining above-trend income growth—and why media negativity is often just a sales tactic. Darius also addresses growing concerns about inflation data credibility and reminds investors to stay disp...
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June 4, 2025 • 13 mins
Markets are digesting the political theater surrounding the “One Big Ugly Bill” as bipartisan brinksmanship ramps up. Despite high-profile opposition—from Elon Musk to fiscal hawks in the Senate—our base case remains that the bill survives largely intact, with a reasonable probability of expanding further. Investors should fade the noise and focus on the fiscal impulse embedded in Paradigm C: growth-first policy th...
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June 3, 2025 • 15 mins
In this Macro Minute, Darius Dale examines which asset class the Trump administration is implicitly encouraging investors to favor. He highlights the OECD's sharply downgraded 2025 growth and inflation forecasts—now well embedded in consensus—and argues that betting on these projections will likely leave investors behind. Instead, Dale urges a shift in focus toward the administration’s actual policy trajectory: ref...
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June 2, 2025 • 7 mins
In this episode, 42 Macro analyzes the key macro question of whether markets are underestimating the risks of strategic U.S.–China decoupling. Their outlook remains anchored in Paradigm C, reinforced by Treasury Secretary Bessent's support for gradual deficit reduction through economic reflation rather than austerity. The episode outlines why short-term tariff tensions and political noise should be faded, and reaff...
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May 30, 2025 • 14 mins
In this Macro Minute, Darius Dale addresses whether markets are sleepwalking into a turbulent summer. He emphasizes that as long as Paradigm C remains the modal outcome, investors should fade tariff fears and buy dips. With consensus still underexposed to pro-growth policy shifts, he warns that failure to navigate trade and fiscal tensions—especially around Section 899—could accelerate capital flight and bring yiel...
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May 29, 2025 • 12 mins
This episode explores how President Trump may respond to negative court rulings and derogatory labels like 'TACO.' The discussion suggests Trump could escalate tariffs and trade measures via executive authority, likely increasing short-term market volatility. The hosts advise investors to buy dips, citing signals from their quantitative models that favor risk assets—especially equities, gold, Bitcoin, and cyclicals...
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May 28, 2025 • 10 mins
42 Macro analyzes the key macro question of whether soft economic data will catch up to hard data, or if hard data will decline to meet the soft data. Their outlook leans toward soft data catching up over a 3 to 12-month horizon, supported by recent consumer confidence metrics. The episode discusses why fading near-term volatility could be a winning strategy, the continued use of gold instead of bonds as a defensiv...
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May 27, 2025 • 13 mins
The S&P 500 rebounded post the Memorial Day holiday as markets priced in President Trump’s abrupt U-turn on EU tariff threats. Trump walked back his June 1, 50% EU tariff threat to July 9 after a Sunday call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who agreed to expedite negotiations. Elsewhere, a rally in Japanese bonds triggered buying in US Treasuries as Japanese officials initiated steps to sta...
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May 22, 2025 • 16 mins
This episode explores the macroeconomic and market impact of the shift to 'Paradigm C' following the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The hosts discuss a regime that combines monetary and fiscal fuel with supply-side measures, creating a structurally bullish backdrop for equities, gold, and Bitcoin but a bearish outlook for Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. The portfolio strategy remains fully risk-on, supported by resili...
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May 21, 2025 • 9 mins
In this episode, experts explore the implications of a weakening U.S. dollar amid speculation of policy shifts at the upcoming G7 summit, particularly under the Trump administration’s approach to enhancing manufacturing competitiveness. The discussion delves into how coordinated currency policies, alongside populist fiscal expansion, align with broader market trends such as rising multinational earnings and bullish...
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May 20, 2025 • 10 mins
In this episode of Macro Minute, 42 Macro's founder Darius Dale explores a critical question for today's economic landscape: When will the Federal Reserve revise its inflation target higher? Dale examines how China and the U.S. are headed for what he calls a "somewhat amicable divorce," leaving behind a multipolar world. This shift may require addressing the U.S.'s massive $26 trillion net international investment ...
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May 19, 2025 • 8 mins
In this episode, the discussion kicks off with Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating from AAA to AA1 and examines the implications of the so‐called “Sell America” trade. Despite symbolic effects, the downgrade highlights concerns over deteriorating fiscal metrics that no longer balance America’s economic strengths. The podcast delves into a portfolio strategy that maintains long positions in U.S. equities ...
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