The Macro Minute with Darius Dale
The Macro Minute is a daily morning podcast of what 42 Macro Founder & CEO Darius Dale is seeing in the overnight markets and where he\'s focused before the US stock market open.
Episodes
Despite sticky inflation and labor weakness, bears still are not getting paid—because Paradigm C remains in control. Darius breaks down why investors should fade fear, trust the signals, and watch for what a Fourth Turning youth revolution might mean for what comes next.
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September 10, 2025 • 16 mins
In today's Macro Minute, Darius explains why the August PPI data signals consensus is still wrong on tariffs. Despite fears of tariff-driven inflation, the data supports 42 Macro’s long-held Paradigm C view—resilient growth, sticky inflation, and upside risk for risk assets. He also unpacks a client question on how major employment data revisions could reshape the economic narrative and reinforce the U-shaped recov...
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September 9, 2025 • 12 mins
Darius Dale unpacks what small businesses and consumers are saying about the U.S. economy—and why sticky inflation and rising capital costs could force the Fed to act. With the U-Shaped Economy still in play, KISS and Dr. Mo keep investors positioned for what’s next.
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September 8, 2025 • 9 mins
Today, Darius Dale breaks down the growing political instability across global economies—and what it means for bond yields, Fed independence, and investor positioning. With major leadership shakeups in Japan, the UK, and France, and rising pressure on the Fed from both Scott Bessent and Ken Griffin, the market is being forced to reckon with fiscal dominance and a shifting macro landscape. Darius explains why long-e...
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September 5, 2025 • 10 mins
Darius breaks down why a weak jobs report reinforces the soft landing view — and opens the door for a 50bps “catch-up” cut on September 17th. He unpacks how KISS and Dr. Mo keep investors positioned to ride the year-end rally.
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September 3, 2025 • 9 mins
Today, Darius Dale explores why the current global bond sell-off won’t derail the Paradigm C bull market over a medium-to-long-term time horizon. With deficits growing, Fed independence eroding, and bonds turning into risk assets, he explains why equities, gold, and Bitcoin remain the core plays — and how KISS and Dr. Mo keep investors on the right side of risk.
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September 2, 2025 • 8 mins
In today's Macro Minute, Darius returns to explore whether legal checks on President Trump’s agenda could extend the Paradigm C rally. With recent court rulings slowing tariffs and immigration crackdowns, the path clears for Fed easing and a potential Q4 melt-up. Plus, Darius tackles a new subscriber's inquiry surrounding market timing—and shows how KISS and Dr. Mo help investors stay on the right side of risk, wit...
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August 26, 2025 • 11 mins
Darius Dale explains why investors are unprepared for regime change at the Fed. With real short rates headed lower and yield curve control looming, the playbook is shifting: risk assets and gold have right-tail upside, while the dollar faces left-tail risk. Plus, hear how 42 Macro’s KISS framework gives investors the confidence to stay invested and retire on time, comfortably.
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August 25, 2025 • 8 mins
Darius Dale breaks down why NVIDIA earnings and the July PCE report are the week’s pivotal catalysts. With crowded bullish positioning at February highs, markets face left-tail risks if AI enthusiasm falters or inflation surprises. But with Powell signaling cuts and Paradigm C intact, KISS and Dr. Mo remain the compass for managing risk and compounding returns.
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August 15, 2025 • 13 mins
Darius Dale breaks down the first full week of the reciprocal tariff regime, with July Retail Sales and Industrial Production reinforcing 42 Macro’s U-Shaped Economy thesis. He explains why inflation remains sticky, why a 3% Fed target could unlock growth, and how KISS and Dr. Mo are positioned to navigate Paradigm C’s pro-growth backdrop.
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August 14, 2025 • 8 mins
In today's Macro Minute, Darius unpacks the latest on tariffs, sticky inflation, and global liquidity trends. He explains why the Fed’s delay in cutting rates remains a key short-term headwind and why Paradigm C’s long-term bullish framework is intact. Plus, he highlights why disciplined participation is essential for capturing upside in this market regime.
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August 13, 2025 • 6 mins
Darius Dale breaks down the latest U.S. fiscal and Treasury financing dynamics—why tariffs won’t meaningfully cut the deficit, how Paradigm C is fueling bull markets in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, and what structural debt drivers mean for investors. He also explains the policy choices ahead and how they could shape portfolio strategy in this regime.
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August 12, 2025 • 12 mins
Today, Darius breaks down July’s CPI data, the impact of Trump’s tariff regime, and why the Fed’s reaction function still risks compounding policy mistakes. We discuss how small business sentiment, growth resilience, and the U-shaped economy thesis fit into the current market regime—and what that means for positioning with KISS and Dr. Mo.
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August 11, 2025 • 7 mins
Darius breaks down whether markets can keep looking past adverse trade policy outcomes after Nvidia and AMD’s unprecedented export-license deal with the U.S. government. We explore what it signals for Trump-era trade strategy, the evolving Fed outlook, and why corporate earnings continue to crush expectations despite slowing growth. Plus, how tariffs, immigration shifts, and inflation dynamics may shape rate cuts i...
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President Trump advances his Fed reshuffle and opens the door for 401(k) access to alternatives. In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale breaks down the implications of Waller and Miran’s rise, the inflation debate surrounding tariffs, and why volatility is the best signal for managing left-tail risk. Plus, a powerful community question on stop losses and protecting wealth through systematic investing.
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August 7, 2025 • 14 mins
President Trump’s tariffs are live, Fed regime change is looming, and investors are being forced to capitulate into Paradigm C. In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale unpacks why structurally higher nominal growth, persistent fiscal expansion, and a potential pivot at the Fed are reshaping market dynamics—and why investors must stay systematic to navigate it. He also responds to a client’s powerful question about tru...
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August 6, 2025 • 10 mins
In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale breaks down why the Fed’s latest move may mark its fifth major policy mistake under Chair Powell. With ISM Services data softening and supercore inflation slowing, Darius warns of rising left-tail risks—and explains how the U.S. economy may not need cuts, but the market still does. He also discusses President Trump’s potential Fed Board picks and what that means for policy pivot...
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August 5, 2025 • 11 mins
Darius Dale unpacks why Q2 earnings are crushing expectations and what it means for the Paradigm C thesis. He explains how AI, deregulation, and a weaker dollar are driving upside risks—and why income, not job counts, is what really matters for markets.
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August 4, 2025 • 10 mins
Today, Darius tackles whether President Trump should replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid rising fears of another policy mistake. He outlines Powell’s track record, the risks to markets, and why a more dovish successor could be bullish for risk assets. Plus, a client question on Lacy Hunt’s global recession warning—and why 42 Macro still sees Paradigm C intact.
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August 1, 2025 • 7 mins
Darius Dale breaks down why the Fed’s latest stance could mark yet another policy mistake—risking tighter financial conditions in a U-shaped economy that still supports rate cuts. He explains the implications for growth, inflation, and market positioning, and why erosion of Fed independence could shape asset market opportunities in the months ahead.
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