The first few months of 2025 have produced mixed results for US equities. Despite efforts to coax out the full economic potential of the U.S., domestic markets have lacked confidence. Meanwhile, ‘safe haven’ assets such as Treasury Bonds and international stocks have broadly rallied.
They say it’s been the worst start to a year since, well, 2022.
With a ballooning Federal deficit and the potential for a more competitive overseas trade environment, recent moves seem a bit counter intuitive. The prevailing fear is that prolonged trade negotiations could discourage domestic capital deployment, thus triggering a cascade of negative consequences.
The concern that tariffs will trigger another wave of uncomfortable inflation, while possible, is overblown. Especially considering the recent March 14 reading of CPI-U at 0.2% (2.43% annualized), a drop in energy prices and a modest decline in longer-term rates.
It is reasonable for equity investors to experience a correction of –20% or more from highs once every four years on average. This happens when FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) dominates sentiment.
International market valuations relative to US have been historically cheap with the S&P 500 coming off two back-to-back years of double-digit rallies. It is easier to turn an ankle stepping off first-place podium.
So, is that it? Is the US no longer top contender? The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model revised its annualized growth in the current quarter from +2.3% to –2.4%. Keynesian free-trade fanatics are busy prostrating themselves on camera to abash any with a notion that tariffs could be a means to a positive end.
All I can say is that it’s possible and they could be right. I offer no guarantees but remind you that we’ve been down scarier roads than this one. Yet here we are, living better than kings not so long ago.
Not kings today. Charles has it pretty good.
I invite you to join Brent and I as we elaborate on this topic. We discuss current markets, what we should be doing in response to these downturns and what you should be hearing from your advisor.
__
We would appreciate it if you could follow our podcast and give it a five-star rating! This supports us in reaching a wider audience, allowing us to assist more individuals in their financial learning journey.
______
About Your Hosts
Ben Jones
Managing Director, National Wealth Management Group
Sign up for Ben’s newsletter at www.karastick.com
Follow him on X @thekaratstick
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-nwmg/
____
Brent Gargano, CFPⓇ
Founder & Advisor, Infinite Wealth Planning
www.infinitewealthplanning.com
linkedin.com/in/brent-gargano-cfp®-2067b573
Read Brent's latest newsletter --> https://40221980.hs-sites.com/infinite-wealth-plannings-january-newsletter-is-live-1?ecid=&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email
Sign Up For Brent's Newsletter -- > https://share.hsforms.com/1maVO0YZ0T3uIA80kyeGi1Any3h8
______
Editor
Trevor Gargano
Email: Trevor@trevorgargano.com
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevor-gargano-72727b67/
Website: TheDigitalQuarterback.com
______
Follow our socials to support the podcast; see extra clips and announcements!
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/moneyalchemistpod/
X: https://twitter.com/moneyalchpod
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61556458987483
______
Disclosure:
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
Advisors associated with National Wealth Management Group may be either (1) registered representatives with, and securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisor representatives of National Wealth Management G
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
My Favorite Murder with Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark
My Favorite Murder is a true crime comedy podcast hosted by Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark. Each week, Karen and Georgia share compelling true crimes and hometown stories from friends and listeners. Since MFM launched in January of 2016, Karen and Georgia have shared their lifelong interest in true crime and have covered stories of infamous serial killers like the Night Stalker, mysterious cold cases, captivating cults, incredible survivor stories and important events from history like the Tulsa race massacre of 1921. My Favorite Murder is part of the Exactly Right podcast network that provides a platform for bold, creative voices to bring to life provocative, entertaining and relatable stories for audiences everywhere. The Exactly Right roster of podcasts covers a variety of topics including historic true crime, comedic interviews and news, science, pop culture and more. Podcasts on the network include Buried Bones with Kate Winkler Dawson and Paul Holes, That's Messed Up: An SVU Podcast, This Podcast Will Kill You, Bananas and more.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com