September 13, 2025 • 9 mins
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1364.
The US stock market experienced significant gains, with major indices reaching record highs, driven primarily by strong expectations of an imminent interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Technology, fueled by AI demand, led sector performance, while investor confidence was bolstered by inflation data aligning with Wall Street's predictions and a cooling jobs market. The podcast offers recommendations for broad market, growthoriented, defensive, and incomefocused investors, emphasizing the cautious optimism surrounding the Fed's upcoming policy meeting and its potential impact on market volatility.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome back to Spy Trader , your essential guide to navigating the markets !
It's 6 am on Saturday , September 13th , 2025 , Pacific time , and I'm your host , Bucky Bucks , ready to dive into a whirlwind week for the financial world .
We've got a lot to cover , so let's get right into it !
The US stock market had quite the showing over the past few days , largely thanks to strong expectations of an imminent interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve .
(00:30):
Major indices generally posted weekly gains , with the techheavy Nasdaq Composite hitting multiple record highs .
Looking at the broad market , all major US stock indices closed the week of September 912 with positive gains .
The Nasdaq Composite , tracking the Nasdaq100 , was a real star , climbing 0.4% on Friday , September 12 , to hit a record high , marking its fifth consecutive record !
(00:59):
For the entire week , the Nasdaq Composite was up a solid 2% .
The S&P 500 Index dipped just slightly by 0.1% on Friday , but still managed a weekly gain of 1.6% , having touched near alltime highs earlier in September .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average , while down 0.6% on Friday , ended the week up 1% .
(01:23):
This broad market strength meant all three indices actually entered Friday's session at record highs .
What's driving all this optimism ?
Well , investor confidence got a big boost from inflation data that mostly aligned with Wall Street's expectations , really solidifying the belief that the Federal Reserve is gearing up for rate cuts .
(01:46):
The Fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 1617 is keenly awaited , with strong whispers predicting a 25basispoint rate reduction .
This outlook is supported by recent macroeconomic indicators , like a rather ' measly' 29,000 nonfarm payroll growth in August and the unemployment rate hitting a fresh cyclehigh of 4.3% .
(02:11):
Plus , a University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment pulling back in early September , especially among lower and middleincome consumers .
While the core PCE deflator , a key inflation gauge , is still a bit above the Fed's 2% target at 2.9% yearoveryear , the overall sentiment is definitely pointing towards monetary easing to support a cooling jobs market .
(02:38):
Now , let's talk sectors !
Technology was the clear leader , with the Nasdaq's recordsetting run fueled by booming demand for Artificial Intelligence .
Oracle ( ORCL ) shares surged after it upped its outlook , forecasting cloud infrastructure sales to jump 77% to 18 billion this fiscal year , all thanks to AI demand .
(03:03):
Adobe ( ADBE ) also saw gains as AI propelled its sales higher .
Super Micro Computer and Nvidia ( NVDA ) shares advanced , with Supermicro highlighting its integrated solutions with NVIDIA's Blackwell chips for optimized AI performance .
Geopolitical factors , like US export controls on AI chips to China , are still a consideration , though a reported relaxation in 2025 is projected to unlock ' tens of billions in sales ' for firms like Nvidia and AMD .
(03:38):
Financials also performed well in August .
The healthcare industry demonstrated resilience with continued job growth , gaining 5.4% in August , and is seen as ' inexpensively valued ' compared to the broader market , with AI transforming various aspects of healthcare .
Real estate saw gains on Thursday , September 11 , buoyed by falling Treasury yields and a drop in the average 30year fixed mortgage rate to an 11month low of 6.35% .
(04:11):
Consumer Discretionary was the best performer in August with a 7% gain , but furniture retailer RH ( RH ) saw its shares drop after lowering its revenue growth outlook , citing 30 million in tariff costs .
As for specific companies , OpenAI , the ChatGPT maker , announced it's closer to becoming a forprofit company , with its nonprofit parent holding a stake worth over 100 billion .
(04:40):
Warner Bros.
Discovery ( WBD ) surged on takeover bid reports , and UnitedHealth Group ( UNH ) shares soared after forecasting 78% of Medicare Advantage enrollments .
Plus , Gemini Space Station ( GEMI ) , a cryptocurrency firm , successfully debuted on the Nasdaq with a significant initial pop .
(05:03):
So , what's the big picture here ?
The recent bullish momentum in the US stock market is heavily influenced by the strong expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut .
This ' don't fight the Fed' sentiment has largely overshadowed any lingering concerns about inflation or the softening labor market .
(05:23):
Investors are betting that lower borrowing costs will juice economic activity and boost corporate earnings .
Now , for Bucky Bucks' recommendations !
First , for broad market exposure and a moderate risk profile , given the overall upward trend driven by anticipated rate cuts , core holdings in broad market equity ETFs remain a solid strategy .
(05:47):
I'm talking about SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ) , iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF ( IVV ) , or Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ( VOO ) for diversified exposure to largecap US companies .
For even broader market coverage , consider the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) .
(06:11):
Maintaining or initiating positions in these is a great way to capture the general market's positive trajectory .
Next , for growthoriented investors who can stomach a bit more risk , the technology sector , especially companies deep into AI , continues to show strong growth potential .
The Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ ) offers concentrated exposure to the Nasdaq100 , which is heavily weighted towards technology and growth .
(06:41):
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLK ) provides more focused exposure to S&P 500 tech companies .
Individual names like Oracle ( ORCL ) and Adobe ( ADBE ) are showing strong fundamentals driven by AI , making them compelling , but remember , individual stocks always carry higher risk .
(07:03):
Be mindful of their recent valuation increases !
For defensive and valueoriented investors looking for lower risk , while the market is rallying , a diversified portfolio often benefits from defensive sectors .
Healthcare is an interesting mix of defensive characteristics with growth from innovation , and it's noted to be ' inexpensively valued .
(07:27):
' The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLV ) could provide a balanced approach , offering exposure to the sector's defensive qualities while also benefiting from advancements in areas like AI and telehealth .
And finally , for income and stability , particularly with rate cuts on the horizon , bond prices are expected to continue their upward trend , offering stability and income .
(07:54):
iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF ( AGG ) or Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND ) are excellent choices for broad exposure to investmentgrade US bonds .
For those seeking greater sensitivity to interest rate declines , the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF ( TLT ) could be considered , but be aware it comes with higher interest rate risk .
(08:19):
Overall , the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic , heavily dependent on the Federal Reserve's actions next week .
While recent economic data supports a case for rate cuts , any deviation from market expectations by the Fed , or a resurgence in inflation , could introduce volatility .
Keep a close eye on Fed communications and evolving macroeconomic data .
(08:43):
Despite September's historical reputation for market weakness , the current environment of anticipated monetary easing just might lead to a different outcome this time around .
That’s all for this edition of Spy Trader !
I’m Bucky Bucks , and I'll catch you next time for more market insights .
Happy trading !
Welcome back to Spy Trader , your essential guide to navigating the markets !
It's 6 am on Saturday , September 13th , 2025 , Pacific time , and I'm your host , Bucky Bucks , ready to dive into a whirlwind week for the financial world .
We've got a lot to cover , so let's get right into it !
The US stock market had quite the showing over the past few days , largely thanks to strong expectations of an imminent interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve .
(00:30):
Major indices generally posted weekly gains , with the techheavy Nasdaq Composite hitting multiple record highs .
Looking at the broad market , all major US stock indices closed the week of September 912 with positive gains .
The Nasdaq Composite , tracking the Nasdaq100 , was a real star , climbing 0.4% on Friday , September 12 , to hit a record high , marking its fifth consecutive record !
(00:59):
For the entire week , the Nasdaq Composite was up a solid 2% .
The S&P 500 Index dipped just slightly by 0.1% on Friday , but still managed a weekly gain of 1.6% , having touched near alltime highs earlier in September .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average , while down 0.6% on Friday , ended the week up 1% .
(01:23):
This broad market strength meant all three indices actually entered Friday's session at record highs .
What's driving all this optimism ?
Well , investor confidence got a big boost from inflation data that mostly aligned with Wall Street's expectations , really solidifying the belief that the Federal Reserve is gearing up for rate cuts .
(01:46):
The Fed's upcoming policy meeting on September 1617 is keenly awaited , with strong whispers predicting a 25basispoint rate reduction .
This outlook is supported by recent macroeconomic indicators , like a rather ' measly' 29,000 nonfarm payroll growth in August and the unemployment rate hitting a fresh cyclehigh of 4.3% .
(02:11):
Plus , a University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment pulling back in early September , especially among lower and middleincome consumers .
While the core PCE deflator , a key inflation gauge , is still a bit above the Fed's 2% target at 2.9% yearoveryear , the overall sentiment is definitely pointing towards monetary easing to support a cooling jobs market .
(02:38):
Now , let's talk sectors !
Technology was the clear leader , with the Nasdaq's recordsetting run fueled by booming demand for Artificial Intelligence .
Oracle ( ORCL ) shares surged after it upped its outlook , forecasting cloud infrastructure sales to jump 77% to 18 billion this fiscal year , all thanks to AI demand .
(03:03):
Adobe ( ADBE ) also saw gains as AI propelled its sales higher .
Super Micro Computer and Nvidia ( NVDA ) shares advanced , with Supermicro highlighting its integrated solutions with NVIDIA's Blackwell chips for optimized AI performance .
Geopolitical factors , like US export controls on AI chips to China , are still a consideration , though a reported relaxation in 2025 is projected to unlock ' tens of billions in sales ' for firms like Nvidia and AMD .
(03:38):
Financials also performed well in August .
The healthcare industry demonstrated resilience with continued job growth , gaining 5.4% in August , and is seen as ' inexpensively valued ' compared to the broader market , with AI transforming various aspects of healthcare .
Real estate saw gains on Thursday , September 11 , buoyed by falling Treasury yields and a drop in the average 30year fixed mortgage rate to an 11month low of 6.35% .
(04:11):
Consumer Discretionary was the best performer in August with a 7% gain , but furniture retailer RH ( RH ) saw its shares drop after lowering its revenue growth outlook , citing 30 million in tariff costs .
As for specific companies , OpenAI , the ChatGPT maker , announced it's closer to becoming a forprofit company , with its nonprofit parent holding a stake worth over 100 billion .
(04:40):
Warner Bros.
Discovery ( WBD ) surged on takeover bid reports , and UnitedHealth Group ( UNH ) shares soared after forecasting 78% of Medicare Advantage enrollments .
Plus , Gemini Space Station ( GEMI ) , a cryptocurrency firm , successfully debuted on the Nasdaq with a significant initial pop .
(05:03):
So , what's the big picture here ?
The recent bullish momentum in the US stock market is heavily influenced by the strong expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut .
This ' don't fight the Fed' sentiment has largely overshadowed any lingering concerns about inflation or the softening labor market .
(05:23):
Investors are betting that lower borrowing costs will juice economic activity and boost corporate earnings .
Now , for Bucky Bucks' recommendations !
First , for broad market exposure and a moderate risk profile , given the overall upward trend driven by anticipated rate cuts , core holdings in broad market equity ETFs remain a solid strategy .
(05:47):
I'm talking about SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ) , iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF ( IVV ) , or Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ( VOO ) for diversified exposure to largecap US companies .
For even broader market coverage , consider the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) .
(06:11):
Maintaining or initiating positions in these is a great way to capture the general market's positive trajectory .
Next , for growthoriented investors who can stomach a bit more risk , the technology sector , especially companies deep into AI , continues to show strong growth potential .
The Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ ) offers concentrated exposure to the Nasdaq100 , which is heavily weighted towards technology and growth .
(06:41):
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLK ) provides more focused exposure to S&P 500 tech companies .
Individual names like Oracle ( ORCL ) and Adobe ( ADBE ) are showing strong fundamentals driven by AI , making them compelling , but remember , individual stocks always carry higher risk .
(07:03):
Be mindful of their recent valuation increases !
For defensive and valueoriented investors looking for lower risk , while the market is rallying , a diversified portfolio often benefits from defensive sectors .
Healthcare is an interesting mix of defensive characteristics with growth from innovation , and it's noted to be ' inexpensively valued .
(07:27):
' The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLV ) could provide a balanced approach , offering exposure to the sector's defensive qualities while also benefiting from advancements in areas like AI and telehealth .
And finally , for income and stability , particularly with rate cuts on the horizon , bond prices are expected to continue their upward trend , offering stability and income .
(07:54):
iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF ( AGG ) or Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND ) are excellent choices for broad exposure to investmentgrade US bonds .
For those seeking greater sensitivity to interest rate declines , the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF ( TLT ) could be considered , but be aware it comes with higher interest rate risk .
(08:19):
Overall , the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic , heavily dependent on the Federal Reserve's actions next week .
While recent economic data supports a case for rate cuts , any deviation from market expectations by the Fed , or a resurgence in inflation , could introduce volatility .
Keep a close eye on Fed communications and evolving macroeconomic data .
(08:43):
Despite September's historical reputation for market weakness , the current environment of anticipated monetary easing just might lead to a different outcome this time around .
That’s all for this edition of Spy Trader !
I’m Bucky Bucks , and I'll catch you next time for more market insights .
Happy trading !
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