Gold Rallies as AI Earnings Outpace Trade Wars

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1397. Stellar Q3 corporate earnings, led by TSMC and Salesforce, are driving market resilience and pushing tech futures higher, defying a confirmed USChina trade war and an ongoing government shutdown. While AI names like Nvidia remain key buys (QQQ, CRM), geopolitical instability is pushing Gold to a record high, necessitating a core hedge (GLD). The Fed is expected to cut rates as economic momentum slows.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Welcome back to Spy Trader .
I'm your host , Chip Stonkwell , and it's 6 am on Thursday , October 16th , 2025 , Pacific time .
We are starting the morning with US futures pointing higher , showing remarkable resilience .
The core takeaway today is that stellar corporate earnings , particularly in tech , are successfully outweighing serious political and geopolitical noise , including a confirmed trade war and a threeweek government shutdown .

(00:28):
Now , let’s get into the news .

The earnings season is driving upside momentum , particularly for two key sectors (00:30):
Information Technology and Financials .
On the tech front , the AI narrative remains explosive .
Taiwan Semiconductor , or TSMC , the bellwether for the chip industry , posted a stunning 40% surge in its Q3 profit and raised its 2025 revenue forecast significantly .

(00:55):
This immediately lifted related stocks like Nvidia , which gained over one percent premarket .
Not to be outdone , enterprise software giant Salesforce surged 6% premarket after projecting immense confidence , setting a target of over sixty billion dollars in revenue by 2030 .
In financials , major banks like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have continued to deliver betterthanexpected Q3 earnings , signaling a healthy US consumer and robust wealth management .

(01:27):
However , we have strong headwinds .
The primary risk remains the USChina trade war , which President Trump has confirmed is underway .
This is compounded by his threat of an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1st .
Domestically , the ongoing government shutdown is creating a data void , delaying key releases like CPI and retail sales , which complicates the Federal Reserve’s job .

(01:56):
We also saw some specific weakness , with Hewlett Packard Enterprise , HPE , sinking 8% premarket after cutting its longterm guidance .
The market analysis shows that this AIled growth boom is strong enough to look past the political risks .
But there are complications .
The Fed’s Beige Book suggests the US economy’s momentum is slowing , solidifying expectations for further interestrate cuts this year , pushing the 10year Treasury yield toward 4.028% .

(02:28):
This expectation , combined with the trade uncertainty , has driven Gold prices to a new record high , currently near four thousand two hundred thirtyfour dollars per ounce , as investors seek a safe haven .
So , what’s the trade ?
First , you must stay long on the AIdriven tech trend .
The fundamental demand is confirmed by TSMC and Salesforce .

(02:50):
We recommend maintaining a core position in the Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ , for broad tech exposure .
For focused highgrowth exposure , look at Nvidia or Salesforce , CRM .
Second , harvest gains from Financials but maintain core exposure .
The banks are healthy , but future growth might moderate with slowing economic activity .

(03:13):
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLF , or a stock like Bank of America , BAC , is suitable for a stable , marketperform position .
Third , you must hedge against the geopolitical uncertainty .
With trade wars and government shutdowns , volatility is high .
We recommend a strategic allocation to SPDR Gold Shares , GLD , to capture the upside of the safehaven trade .

(03:40):
Finally , keep your foundation solid .
The S&P 500 is making new highs , so a core holding in a broad ETF like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , is essential to mirror the overall market's resilience .
That's it for this morning's Spy Trader .
Good luck out there , and I’ll catch you next time .