August 11, 2025 • 10 mins
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1334.
This episode analyzes the U.S. stock market's strong performance, driven by tech and Nasdaq's new alltime highs, fueled by hopes for a September interest rate cut. It covers recent tariff developments, key company earnings (Apple, Palantir surging; Trade Desk, Texas Roadhouse falling), and detailed sector analysis. Macroeconomic factors like rising inflation and a softening labor market are discussed alongside investment strategies for broad market exposure, growth, value, and income, emphasizing diversification and caution regarding healthcare and tariffs.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Good morning , traders , and welcome to Spy Trader !
I'm your host , Prof.
Bullish Bear , here to help you navigate the everexciting world of the stock market .
It's 6 am on Monday , August 11th , 2025 , Pacific Time , and we've got a lot to unpack .
The past week saw a fantastic close on Friday , August 8th , with all three major indexes closing higher and showing strong weekly gains .
(00:27):
The Nasdaq Composite , in particular , hit a new alltime closing high of 21,450.02 , jumping 1% .
The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to 6,389.45 , and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 44,175.61 .
(00:53):
This optimism is partly fueled by hopes for the first interest rate cut this year , potentially in September .
The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX , our market fear gauge , was down 8.6% to 15.15 , signaling reduced apprehension .
However , as we look to Monday , U.S.
(01:15):
stock futures are mixed , with Nasdaq 100 futures slightly down while Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures are up , as investors await key inflation data releases this week .
Recent news has certainly kept things interesting .
Tariff developments have been a hot topic .
After some initial jitters , reciprocal tariffs did go into effect on August 7th .
(01:40):
President Trump also announced plans for a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports .
But here's the silver lining (01:46):
exemptions for companies committing to U.S.
production have provided some reassurance , especially for our chip stocks .
On the company front , Apple surged 13% last week after announcing a massive new 100 billion commitment to America , boosting its total U.S.
(02:06):
investment to 600 billion over the next four years , focusing on domestic manufacturing and a U.S.
silicon supply chain .
Palantir Technologies also had a phenomenal week , with recordbreaking 1 billion quarterly revenues and raised fullyear guidance , sending its share price up 16% .
(02:27):
It's up over 109% yeartodate , driven by excitement for its Artificial Intelligence Platform .
Gilead Sciences jumped 8.3% after strong secondquarter earnings , and Expedia and Monster Beverage also rose sharply after beating forecasts .
Unfortunately , not all news was good (02:44):
The Trade Desk plunged nearly 39% and Texas Roadhouse tumbled 6.6% after missing earnings estimates .
Intel saw a mixed reaction , initially falling after the President's comments , but chip stocks like Nvidia and AMD broadly rebounded thanks to those tariff exemptions , reportedly agreeing to give the U.S.
(03:10):
a 15% cut on AI chip sales to China .
And finally , global M&A activity has surged to 2.6 trillion yeartodate , making it the busiest period since 2021 , driven by boardroom ambitions and a rise in AIrelated deals .
Now , let's dive into the market's performance and the broader economic picture .
(03:33):
The technology sector has been the clear leader , advancing 1% on Friday , with the Nasdaq 100 , heavily weighted towards tech , hitting new records .
This surge is largely thanks to the ' big techs ' and all the excitement around artificial intelligence .
The Financials sector also showed positive momentum , but some analysis suggests the market might be overestimating longterm earnings growth , with many stocks in the sector appearing broadly overvalued .
(04:04):
Healthcare advanced as well , but this sector faces significant challenges like rising medical costs , regulatory pressures , disappointing Medicare Advantage earnings guidance , and substantial cybersecurity risks .
Communications stands out as the bestperforming sector yeartodate and is still considered undervalued , primarily fueled by the strong returns of Meta Platforms and Alphabet .
(04:30):
Energy , despite some recent gains , remains one of the more undervalued sectors , with oil stocks potentially offering a natural hedge against inflation .
In real estate , the Morningstar US Real Estate Index was largely flat in July , with preferred areas including defensive properties like medical office buildings , research and development , multifamily housing , cellphone towers , and selfstorage facilities .
(05:00):
For Industrials , caution is advised given expectations for decelerating economic growth .
From a macroeconomic perspective , the U.S.
economy rebounded nicely in Q2 2025 , with a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate .
The Atlanta Fed estimates Q3 growth at 2.5% .
(05:21):
Inflation , however , is on the rise , hitting 2.70% for the 12 months ending June 2025 , up from 2.40% in May .
We're all waiting for the next inflation update , the July CPI data , scheduled for August 12th .
S&P Global US PMI data even hints at inflation potentially climbing above 4% in coming months due to tariffs .
(05:48):
The labor market has shown signs of softening , with job growth slowing to 73,000 in July , and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% .
Jobless claims also increased for the week ending August 2nd .
Forecasts even suggest tariffs could lead to the unemployment rate rising by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 .
(06:12):
On a brighter note , there's widespread optimism about a potential interest rate cut in September , which would be the first of the year .
However , consumer sentiment remains weaker than expected due to concerns about job prospects , business conditions , and the potential impact of tariffs .
So , what does this all mean for your portfolio ?
(06:33):
The U.S.
stock market is currently enjoying upward momentum , driven by strong tech performance , easing tariff fears , and hopes for interest rate cuts .
But we need to keep an eye on those underlying macroeconomic indicators like inflation and the softening labor market .
First , for broad market exposure and stability , given the positive trajectory and reduced volatility , a diversified broad market ETF is a solid core holding .
(07:01):
The S&P 500 has a strong track record .
I recommend considering the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , ticker VOO , or the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF , ticker IVV .
For even wider diversification across the entire U.S.
stock market , including large , mid , small , and microcap stocks , the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , ticker VTI , is an excellent choice .
(07:32):
Second , for growthoriented investors with a higher risk tolerance , the technology sector continues to lead the way , with big techs and AIdriven companies showing significant gains .
The Nasdaq hitting new highs confirms robust growth here .
The Invesco QQQ Trust , ticker QQQ , offers concentrated exposure to the Nasdaq100 , heavily weighted towards technology .
(07:58):
For individual company exposure , Apple Inc.
, ticker AAPL , remains compelling due to its massive new U.S.
investment commitments .
Palantir Technologies , ticker PLTR , is another highgrowth example , having soared over 100% this year , thanks to its strong performance and AI platform excitement .
(08:18):
Third , for investors seeking value and an inflation hedge , while growth stocks are leading , the Communications and Energy sectors are identified as undervalued .
Energy stocks , in particular , can offer a hedge against persistent inflation .
You could look into the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLE , or carefully select individual energy companies .
(08:43):
For Communications , largecap companies like Alphabet , ticker GOOGL , and Meta Platforms , ticker META , are driving the sector's performance and are considered undervalued .
Fourth , for incomefocused investors and portfolio stability , with an anticipated interest rate cut in September , highquality bond ETFs can provide stability and income .
(09:07):
This is especially true in an environment where the labor market is softening and consumer confidence is a concern .
The iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF , ticker AGG , or the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , ticker BND , are excellent choices for broad exposure to U.S.
investmentgrade bonds .
Lastly , a few cautionary considerations (09:28):
while the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLV , has seen gains , the sector faces significant structural issues like rising costs and cybersecurity threats .
Investors should be selective here .
Also , the full impact of recent tariffs on economic growth and employment still bears watching , as they are predicted to negatively affect GDP and employment .
(09:56):
This could introduce future volatility .
And as we saw with The Trade Desk and Texas Roadhouse , earnings misses can lead to sharp declines , so thorough due diligence on individual company financials is always crucial .
In summary , the U.S.
stock market is generally on a positive trend , with strong leadership from the technology sector and optimism surrounding monetary policy .
(10:22):
However , underlying economic softness in the labor market and inflationary pressures , alongside the evolving tariff landscape , suggest a continued need for a balanced and informed investment approach .
Diversification across sectors and asset classes , using instruments like the ETFs we've discussed , remains a prudent strategy .
(10:44):
That's all for this episode of Spy Trader .
Until next time , keep those portfolios looking bullish !
Good morning , traders , and welcome to Spy Trader !
I'm your host , Prof.
Bullish Bear , here to help you navigate the everexciting world of the stock market .
It's 6 am on Monday , August 11th , 2025 , Pacific Time , and we've got a lot to unpack .
The past week saw a fantastic close on Friday , August 8th , with all three major indexes closing higher and showing strong weekly gains .
(00:27):
The Nasdaq Composite , in particular , hit a new alltime closing high of 21,450.02 , jumping 1% .
The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to 6,389.45 , and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 44,175.61 .
(00:53):
This optimism is partly fueled by hopes for the first interest rate cut this year , potentially in September .
The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX , our market fear gauge , was down 8.6% to 15.15 , signaling reduced apprehension .
However , as we look to Monday , U.S.
(01:15):
stock futures are mixed , with Nasdaq 100 futures slightly down while Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures are up , as investors await key inflation data releases this week .
Recent news has certainly kept things interesting .
Tariff developments have been a hot topic .
After some initial jitters , reciprocal tariffs did go into effect on August 7th .
(01:40):
President Trump also announced plans for a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports .
But here's the silver lining (01:46):
exemptions for companies committing to U.S.
production have provided some reassurance , especially for our chip stocks .
On the company front , Apple surged 13% last week after announcing a massive new 100 billion commitment to America , boosting its total U.S.
(02:06):
investment to 600 billion over the next four years , focusing on domestic manufacturing and a U.S.
silicon supply chain .
Palantir Technologies also had a phenomenal week , with recordbreaking 1 billion quarterly revenues and raised fullyear guidance , sending its share price up 16% .
(02:27):
It's up over 109% yeartodate , driven by excitement for its Artificial Intelligence Platform .
Gilead Sciences jumped 8.3% after strong secondquarter earnings , and Expedia and Monster Beverage also rose sharply after beating forecasts .
Unfortunately , not all news was good (02:44):
The Trade Desk plunged nearly 39% and Texas Roadhouse tumbled 6.6% after missing earnings estimates .
Intel saw a mixed reaction , initially falling after the President's comments , but chip stocks like Nvidia and AMD broadly rebounded thanks to those tariff exemptions , reportedly agreeing to give the U.S.
(03:10):
a 15% cut on AI chip sales to China .
And finally , global M&A activity has surged to 2.6 trillion yeartodate , making it the busiest period since 2021 , driven by boardroom ambitions and a rise in AIrelated deals .
Now , let's dive into the market's performance and the broader economic picture .
(03:33):
The technology sector has been the clear leader , advancing 1% on Friday , with the Nasdaq 100 , heavily weighted towards tech , hitting new records .
This surge is largely thanks to the ' big techs ' and all the excitement around artificial intelligence .
The Financials sector also showed positive momentum , but some analysis suggests the market might be overestimating longterm earnings growth , with many stocks in the sector appearing broadly overvalued .
(04:04):
Healthcare advanced as well , but this sector faces significant challenges like rising medical costs , regulatory pressures , disappointing Medicare Advantage earnings guidance , and substantial cybersecurity risks .
Communications stands out as the bestperforming sector yeartodate and is still considered undervalued , primarily fueled by the strong returns of Meta Platforms and Alphabet .
(04:30):
Energy , despite some recent gains , remains one of the more undervalued sectors , with oil stocks potentially offering a natural hedge against inflation .
In real estate , the Morningstar US Real Estate Index was largely flat in July , with preferred areas including defensive properties like medical office buildings , research and development , multifamily housing , cellphone towers , and selfstorage facilities .
(05:00):
For Industrials , caution is advised given expectations for decelerating economic growth .
From a macroeconomic perspective , the U.S.
economy rebounded nicely in Q2 2025 , with a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate .
The Atlanta Fed estimates Q3 growth at 2.5% .
(05:21):
Inflation , however , is on the rise , hitting 2.70% for the 12 months ending June 2025 , up from 2.40% in May .
We're all waiting for the next inflation update , the July CPI data , scheduled for August 12th .
S&P Global US PMI data even hints at inflation potentially climbing above 4% in coming months due to tariffs .
(05:48):
The labor market has shown signs of softening , with job growth slowing to 73,000 in July , and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% .
Jobless claims also increased for the week ending August 2nd .
Forecasts even suggest tariffs could lead to the unemployment rate rising by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 .
(06:12):
On a brighter note , there's widespread optimism about a potential interest rate cut in September , which would be the first of the year .
However , consumer sentiment remains weaker than expected due to concerns about job prospects , business conditions , and the potential impact of tariffs .
So , what does this all mean for your portfolio ?
(06:33):
The U.S.
stock market is currently enjoying upward momentum , driven by strong tech performance , easing tariff fears , and hopes for interest rate cuts .
But we need to keep an eye on those underlying macroeconomic indicators like inflation and the softening labor market .
First , for broad market exposure and stability , given the positive trajectory and reduced volatility , a diversified broad market ETF is a solid core holding .
(07:01):
The S&P 500 has a strong track record .
I recommend considering the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , ticker VOO , or the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF , ticker IVV .
For even wider diversification across the entire U.S.
stock market , including large , mid , small , and microcap stocks , the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , ticker VTI , is an excellent choice .
(07:32):
Second , for growthoriented investors with a higher risk tolerance , the technology sector continues to lead the way , with big techs and AIdriven companies showing significant gains .
The Nasdaq hitting new highs confirms robust growth here .
The Invesco QQQ Trust , ticker QQQ , offers concentrated exposure to the Nasdaq100 , heavily weighted towards technology .
(07:58):
For individual company exposure , Apple Inc.
, ticker AAPL , remains compelling due to its massive new U.S.
investment commitments .
Palantir Technologies , ticker PLTR , is another highgrowth example , having soared over 100% this year , thanks to its strong performance and AI platform excitement .
(08:18):
Third , for investors seeking value and an inflation hedge , while growth stocks are leading , the Communications and Energy sectors are identified as undervalued .
Energy stocks , in particular , can offer a hedge against persistent inflation .
You could look into the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLE , or carefully select individual energy companies .
(08:43):
For Communications , largecap companies like Alphabet , ticker GOOGL , and Meta Platforms , ticker META , are driving the sector's performance and are considered undervalued .
Fourth , for incomefocused investors and portfolio stability , with an anticipated interest rate cut in September , highquality bond ETFs can provide stability and income .
(09:07):
This is especially true in an environment where the labor market is softening and consumer confidence is a concern .
The iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF , ticker AGG , or the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , ticker BND , are excellent choices for broad exposure to U.S.
investmentgrade bonds .
Lastly , a few cautionary considerations (09:28):
while the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLV , has seen gains , the sector faces significant structural issues like rising costs and cybersecurity threats .
Investors should be selective here .
Also , the full impact of recent tariffs on economic growth and employment still bears watching , as they are predicted to negatively affect GDP and employment .
(09:56):
This could introduce future volatility .
And as we saw with The Trade Desk and Texas Roadhouse , earnings misses can lead to sharp declines , so thorough due diligence on individual company financials is always crucial .
In summary , the U.S.
stock market is generally on a positive trend , with strong leadership from the technology sector and optimism surrounding monetary policy .
(10:22):
However , underlying economic softness in the labor market and inflationary pressures , alongside the evolving tariff landscape , suggest a continued need for a balanced and informed investment approach .
Diversification across sectors and asset classes , using instruments like the ETFs we've discussed , remains a prudent strategy .
(10:44):
That's all for this episode of Spy Trader .
Until next time , keep those portfolios looking bullish !
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