August 16, 2025 • 10 mins
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1339.
This episode reviews a mixed but largely upward week in the stock market, with the S&P 500 achieving record closes. It highlights Industrials quietly outperforming Information Technology yeartodate and discusses the topheavy nature of the Tech sector. Healthcare is identified as an undervalued sector with potential for rebound, bolstered by Berkshire Hathaway's significant investment in UnitedHealth Group. Macroeconomic discussions cover mixed inflation data—a betterthanexpected CPI followed by a hotter PPI—a slowing labor market, and a strong Q2 GDP rebound, alongside the ongoing impact of international tariffs. Host Cashflow Carl provides strategic investment recommendations, including broad market exposure via ETFs like VTI and SPY, exploring Industrials and other cyclicals, approaching Tech with caution and diversification, closely monitoring Healthcare for rebound potential, and incorporating fixed income for portfolio stability. The episode concludes by urging investors to remain vigilant and diversified in a dynamic market.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome back to Spy Trader , your friendly neighborhood guide to the stock market's twists and turns !
It's 6 am on Saturday , August 16th , 2025 , Pacific time , and I'm your host , Cashflow Carl , here to help you navigate those market waters .
Let's dive right into what's been moving the needle this week .
(00:20):
First up , a quick look at the overall market performance .
It's been a mixed bag but generally leaning upward .
On Friday , the market took a bit of a breather from its recent rally .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight bump , even touching an alltime high early on , while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ticked a little lower .
(00:43):
This followed a strong Thursday where the S&P 500 actually marked its third consecutive record close .
Earlier in the week , specifically on Tuesday , the market really soared with the S&P 500 , Dow , and Nasdaq all up over 1 percent , nearing or hitting record levels thanks to some positive inflation news .
(01:06):
Zooming out , the week leading up to August 8th was quite strong with the S&P 500 up 2.4 percent , the Nasdaq up a whopping 3.9 percent , and the Dow gaining 1.3 percent .
Yeartodate , the S&P 500 is up 8.6 percent , the Dow 3.8 percent , and the Nasdaq a substantial 11.1 percent , showing a remarkable recovery since April , largely led by technology .
(01:35):
Now , let's talk sectors .
Industrials have been the quiet superstar , actually outperforming Information Technology yeartodate with a 15.6 percent return .
This is partly due to big public and private investments , especially from U.S.
government initiatives like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act .
(01:56):
Technology , while driving much of the yeartodate rally and rising over 5 percent in July , is becoming very ' topheavy ' with giants like Nvidia , Microsoft , and Apple making up nearly twothirds of its value .
On Friday , semiconductors lagged , but earlier in the week , many major tech names like Amazon , Nvidia , Microsoft , Alphabet , Meta Platforms , and Broadcom were mostly higher .
(02:24):
Healthcare has been an underdog , struggling this year and declining 3.23 percent in July .
Rising medical costs and regulatory pressures have weighed it down .
However , there's a fascinating shift (02:36):
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway made a huge 1.57 billion investment in UnitedHealth Group in Q2 2025 , causing UNH stock to surge 12 percent premarket on August 15th .
This could signal a potential recovery for the sector .
Financials have performed well this year but are generally seen as overvalued .
(02:59):
On Friday , homebuilders , airlines , and apparel companies were among the best performers .
Diving into the macroeconomic picture , inflation has been a mixed bag .
The Consumer Price Index for July , released on August 12th , showed a 2.7 percent increase yearoveryear , which was slightly better than expected and initially boosted hopes for interest rate cuts .
(03:23):
But then , on August 14th , the Producer Price Index for July came in hotter than expected , jumping 0.9 percent , which tempered those rate cut hopes .
The Fed held rates steady at its July meeting , and mortgage rates did see a slight decline , with the average 30year fixed rate falling to 6.58 percent .
(03:46):
When it comes to trade , Donald Trump's international tariffs are still impacting consumer costs , and while he delayed steep tariffs on China for 90 days , there's talk of a 100 percent tariff on semiconductor imports .
Companies like Apple and Nvidia have secured exemptions by committing to U.S.based investments , which is key .
(04:08):
The labor market shows signs of slowing , with nonfarm payroll employment adding only 73,000 jobs in July , and previous months being revised down .
The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.2 percent in July .
On the GDP front , real GDP growth rebounded strongly to 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 , recovering from a contraction in Q1 , driven by decreased imports and stronger consumer spending .
(04:39):
Looking at companyspecific news , Expedia and Gilead Sciences saw sharp rises in early August after reporting strong earnings .
Intel shares jumped over 7 percent on August 14th after reports that the U.S.
government might take a stake in the chipmaker .
Conversely , Deere shares dropped almost 7 percent , and Tapestry , the parent company of Coach and Kate Spade , tumbled 16 percent after cutting its profit outlook .
(05:08):
Bullish , a digital asset platform , had a very strong debut on the New York Stock Exchange , with its IPO closing at 90 dollars after being priced at 37 dollars .
And as I mentioned , UnitedHealth Group saw a big jump after Berkshire Hathaway's investment .
Highgrowth tech stocks like Sea Limited and Nu Holdings Ltd.
(05:31):
, a digital financial services platform , also reported robust financial performance in the first half of 2025 .
Looking ahead to next week , keep an eye out for major earnings from Palo Alto Networks , Medtronic , Home Depot , Analog Devices , Synopsys , TJX Companies , Lowe's Companies , Workday , Intuit , and Walmart .
(05:54):
These could definitely shake things up .
So , what's the takeaway , and what should you do with your hardearned cash ?
The U.S.
stock market is navigating a really complex landscape .
That Q2 GDP rebound and initial positive CPI data brought some muchneeded optimism for potential Fed rate cuts .
(06:15):
But then the hotter PPI and signs of a weakening job market remind us that inflation is sticky , and the recovery might be bumpy .
Tariffs just add another layer of uncertainty , potentially pushing consumer prices higher .
Here are Cashflow Carl's recommendations for a balanced approach (06:31):
First , for broad market exposure with a tilt towards value and diversification , consider Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) .
It gives you exposure to the entire U.S.
stock market , from large to small caps .
(06:52):
If you prefer a largecap focus , SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ) , iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF ( IVV ) , or Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ( VOO ) are always solid core holdings .
These ETFs are great because while largecap tech has led the rally , the market is getting topheavy , and other sectors like industrials have shown strong yeartodate performance .
(07:18):
Second , let's strategically consider Industrials and other cyclicals .
The Industrials sector has been a silent powerhouse , benefiting from those secular growth trends and infrastructure investments .
While a direct Industrials ETF like the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLI ) is an option , you could also look at individual companies like Stantec or Republic Services ( RSG ) , which are highlighted for strong demand in areas like sustainable design and waste management .
(07:50):
They offer targeted exposure beyond just an ETF .
Third , approach technology with caution , focusing on quality and diversification within the sector .
While tech has been a huge driver , its topheavy nature and ongoing tariff discussions , especially for semiconductors , suggest it's wise to be selective .
(08:12):
For broad tech exposure , Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ ) tracks the Nasdaq100 .
But if you're looking for potentially less ' topheavy ' exposure or to avoid tariff risks , research companies that have secured exemptions or are less reliant on heavily tariffed imports .
Alternatively , consider companies with strong , diverse fundamentals like Sea Limited or Nu Holdings ( NU ) , which reported robust earnings , for targeted growth in tech and fintech .
(08:42):
Fourth , keep a close eye on Healthcare for rebound potential .
This sector is currently undervalued and has struggled , but Berkshire Hathaway's big investment in UnitedHealth Group ( UNH ) , combined with longterm growth drivers like aging demographics and AI innovation in healthcare , could signal a turning point .
For broad exposure , the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLV ) is a good option .
(09:08):
For a specific stock play , UnitedHealth Group ( UNH ) is definitely one to watch given that recent institutional confidence .
Finally , don't forget fixed income for stability .
With inflation proving sticky and the labor market showing signs of weakness , economic uncertainty persists .
The possibility of future rate cuts could benefit bond prices .
(09:31):
For broad U.S.
investmentgrade bond exposure , iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF ( AGG ) or Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND ) are excellent choices .
If you believe interest rates are heading for a more significant decline , the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF ( TLT ) , which focuses on longterm U.S.
(09:56):
Treasury bonds , could be considered , as longerduration bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes .
To wrap it up , the U.S.
stock market is a dynamic beast .
Stay vigilant , keep your portfolio diversified , and carefully evaluate sector and companyspecific opportunities in light of all these evolving macroeconomic trends and policy impacts .
(10:21):
That's it for this edition of Spy Trader !
I'm Cashflow Carl , wishing you profitable trading , and I'll catch you next time !
Welcome back to Spy Trader , your friendly neighborhood guide to the stock market's twists and turns !
It's 6 am on Saturday , August 16th , 2025 , Pacific time , and I'm your host , Cashflow Carl , here to help you navigate those market waters .
Let's dive right into what's been moving the needle this week .
(00:20):
First up , a quick look at the overall market performance .
It's been a mixed bag but generally leaning upward .
On Friday , the market took a bit of a breather from its recent rally .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight bump , even touching an alltime high early on , while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ticked a little lower .
(00:43):
This followed a strong Thursday where the S&P 500 actually marked its third consecutive record close .
Earlier in the week , specifically on Tuesday , the market really soared with the S&P 500 , Dow , and Nasdaq all up over 1 percent , nearing or hitting record levels thanks to some positive inflation news .
(01:06):
Zooming out , the week leading up to August 8th was quite strong with the S&P 500 up 2.4 percent , the Nasdaq up a whopping 3.9 percent , and the Dow gaining 1.3 percent .
Yeartodate , the S&P 500 is up 8.6 percent , the Dow 3.8 percent , and the Nasdaq a substantial 11.1 percent , showing a remarkable recovery since April , largely led by technology .
(01:35):
Now , let's talk sectors .
Industrials have been the quiet superstar , actually outperforming Information Technology yeartodate with a 15.6 percent return .
This is partly due to big public and private investments , especially from U.S.
government initiatives like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act .
(01:56):
Technology , while driving much of the yeartodate rally and rising over 5 percent in July , is becoming very ' topheavy ' with giants like Nvidia , Microsoft , and Apple making up nearly twothirds of its value .
On Friday , semiconductors lagged , but earlier in the week , many major tech names like Amazon , Nvidia , Microsoft , Alphabet , Meta Platforms , and Broadcom were mostly higher .
(02:24):
Healthcare has been an underdog , struggling this year and declining 3.23 percent in July .
Rising medical costs and regulatory pressures have weighed it down .
However , there's a fascinating shift (02:36):
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway made a huge 1.57 billion investment in UnitedHealth Group in Q2 2025 , causing UNH stock to surge 12 percent premarket on August 15th .
This could signal a potential recovery for the sector .
Financials have performed well this year but are generally seen as overvalued .
(02:59):
On Friday , homebuilders , airlines , and apparel companies were among the best performers .
Diving into the macroeconomic picture , inflation has been a mixed bag .
The Consumer Price Index for July , released on August 12th , showed a 2.7 percent increase yearoveryear , which was slightly better than expected and initially boosted hopes for interest rate cuts .
(03:23):
But then , on August 14th , the Producer Price Index for July came in hotter than expected , jumping 0.9 percent , which tempered those rate cut hopes .
The Fed held rates steady at its July meeting , and mortgage rates did see a slight decline , with the average 30year fixed rate falling to 6.58 percent .
(03:46):
When it comes to trade , Donald Trump's international tariffs are still impacting consumer costs , and while he delayed steep tariffs on China for 90 days , there's talk of a 100 percent tariff on semiconductor imports .
Companies like Apple and Nvidia have secured exemptions by committing to U.S.based investments , which is key .
(04:08):
The labor market shows signs of slowing , with nonfarm payroll employment adding only 73,000 jobs in July , and previous months being revised down .
The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.2 percent in July .
On the GDP front , real GDP growth rebounded strongly to 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2025 , recovering from a contraction in Q1 , driven by decreased imports and stronger consumer spending .
(04:39):
Looking at companyspecific news , Expedia and Gilead Sciences saw sharp rises in early August after reporting strong earnings .
Intel shares jumped over 7 percent on August 14th after reports that the U.S.
government might take a stake in the chipmaker .
Conversely , Deere shares dropped almost 7 percent , and Tapestry , the parent company of Coach and Kate Spade , tumbled 16 percent after cutting its profit outlook .
(05:08):
Bullish , a digital asset platform , had a very strong debut on the New York Stock Exchange , with its IPO closing at 90 dollars after being priced at 37 dollars .
And as I mentioned , UnitedHealth Group saw a big jump after Berkshire Hathaway's investment .
Highgrowth tech stocks like Sea Limited and Nu Holdings Ltd.
(05:31):
, a digital financial services platform , also reported robust financial performance in the first half of 2025 .
Looking ahead to next week , keep an eye out for major earnings from Palo Alto Networks , Medtronic , Home Depot , Analog Devices , Synopsys , TJX Companies , Lowe's Companies , Workday , Intuit , and Walmart .
(05:54):
These could definitely shake things up .
So , what's the takeaway , and what should you do with your hardearned cash ?
The U.S.
stock market is navigating a really complex landscape .
That Q2 GDP rebound and initial positive CPI data brought some muchneeded optimism for potential Fed rate cuts .
(06:15):
But then the hotter PPI and signs of a weakening job market remind us that inflation is sticky , and the recovery might be bumpy .
Tariffs just add another layer of uncertainty , potentially pushing consumer prices higher .
Here are Cashflow Carl's recommendations for a balanced approach (06:31):
First , for broad market exposure with a tilt towards value and diversification , consider Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) .
It gives you exposure to the entire U.S.
stock market , from large to small caps .
(06:52):
If you prefer a largecap focus , SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY ) , iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF ( IVV ) , or Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ( VOO ) are always solid core holdings .
These ETFs are great because while largecap tech has led the rally , the market is getting topheavy , and other sectors like industrials have shown strong yeartodate performance .
(07:18):
Second , let's strategically consider Industrials and other cyclicals .
The Industrials sector has been a silent powerhouse , benefiting from those secular growth trends and infrastructure investments .
While a direct Industrials ETF like the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLI ) is an option , you could also look at individual companies like Stantec or Republic Services ( RSG ) , which are highlighted for strong demand in areas like sustainable design and waste management .
(07:50):
They offer targeted exposure beyond just an ETF .
Third , approach technology with caution , focusing on quality and diversification within the sector .
While tech has been a huge driver , its topheavy nature and ongoing tariff discussions , especially for semiconductors , suggest it's wise to be selective .
(08:12):
For broad tech exposure , Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ ) tracks the Nasdaq100 .
But if you're looking for potentially less ' topheavy ' exposure or to avoid tariff risks , research companies that have secured exemptions or are less reliant on heavily tariffed imports .
Alternatively , consider companies with strong , diverse fundamentals like Sea Limited or Nu Holdings ( NU ) , which reported robust earnings , for targeted growth in tech and fintech .
(08:42):
Fourth , keep a close eye on Healthcare for rebound potential .
This sector is currently undervalued and has struggled , but Berkshire Hathaway's big investment in UnitedHealth Group ( UNH ) , combined with longterm growth drivers like aging demographics and AI innovation in healthcare , could signal a turning point .
For broad exposure , the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLV ) is a good option .
(09:08):
For a specific stock play , UnitedHealth Group ( UNH ) is definitely one to watch given that recent institutional confidence .
Finally , don't forget fixed income for stability .
With inflation proving sticky and the labor market showing signs of weakness , economic uncertainty persists .
The possibility of future rate cuts could benefit bond prices .
(09:31):
For broad U.S.
investmentgrade bond exposure , iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF ( AGG ) or Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND ) are excellent choices .
If you believe interest rates are heading for a more significant decline , the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF ( TLT ) , which focuses on longterm U.S.
(09:56):
Treasury bonds , could be considered , as longerduration bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes .
To wrap it up , the U.S.
stock market is a dynamic beast .
Stay vigilant , keep your portfolio diversified , and carefully evaluate sector and companyspecific opportunities in light of all these evolving macroeconomic trends and policy impacts .
(10:21):
That's it for this edition of Spy Trader !
I'm Cashflow Carl , wishing you profitable trading , and I'll catch you next time !
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