September 4, 2025 • 9 mins
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1358.
Explore the US stock market's mixed signals, with tech soaring on favorable rulings and AI enthusiasm, while other sectors show volatility. We analyze key earnings, tariff impacts, and the macroeconomic landscape dominated by anticipated Fed rate cuts, a softening labor market, and ongoing inflation concerns. Get actionable investment strategies for growth and stability, and a look at critical upcoming economic events.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome back to Spy Trader , your goto podcast for navigating the markets .
I'm your host , Bucks Brawley , and it's 6 am on Thursday , September 4th , 2025 , Pacific .
We're here to break down the latest , give you the insights , and help you make those smart moves .
Let's dive right in .
The US stock market is showing a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture right now .
(00:25):
On Wednesday , the techheavy Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 both saw gains , rising 1% and 0.5% respectively .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average , however , experienced a slight dip of 0.1% .
As we start our Thursday , futures are showing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edging a bit higher , while Dow futures are slightly down , reflecting a balanced sentiment as we await some key labor market data .
(00:57):
The S&P 500 Index is currently hovering around 6,448.27 .
Now , for the big news items .
The tech sector received a significant boost thanks to a US court ruling on September 1st , which largely blocked efforts to break up Google .
This news sent shares of Alphabet , ticker GOOGL , soaring by 9% on Wednesday !
(01:23):
Not to be outdone , Apple , ticker AAPL , jumped 3.8% , also benefiting from plans for its own AIdriven search engine .
On the earnings front , it's been a busy few days .
Salesforce , ticker CRM , saw its shares fall over 7% in premarket trading this morning after delivering some disappointing guidance , despite betterthanexpected quarterly results .
(01:49):
Other companies like Macy's , Campbell's , Dollar Tree , Polestar Automotive , PagerDuty , and American Eagle Outfitters also released their quarterly reports , giving us plenty to chew on .
Broadcom , ticker AVGO , is also set to report later this week , so keep an eye on that .
We're also seeing ongoing tariffrelated concerns impacting investor sentiment .
(02:14):
A recent federal appeals court ruling deemed most of President Donald Trump's tariffs illegal , which could lead to significant government repayments , and business executives are expressing wariness about the impacts on their planning .
So , what does this all mean for your portfolio ?
Let's talk about it .
The technology and communication services sectors are really leading the charge .
(02:40):
The Technology Select Sector SPDR , XLK , and the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR , XLC , both advanced nicely on Wednesday .
This strength is clearly fueled by those favorable court rulings and the continued buzz around AI .
Yeartodate , Communication Services and Industrials have been top performers .
(03:02):
The Utilities sector , XLU , has also been a steady hand , especially during market uncertainty .
On the flip side , the Energy Select Sector SPDR , XLE , tumbled 2.2% on Wednesday , with the sector facing downward revisions due to lower oil prices .
Healthcare and Real Estate are looking a bit undervalued , having seen some declines in Q2 .
(03:27):
Now , for the macroeconomic picture , which is always crucial .
The Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision is just around the corner , on September 17th .
There's a strong likelihood of a 25basispoint interest rate cut , which would be the first of 2025 , moving the target range to between 4.00% and 4.25% .
(03:51):
This potential cut is driven by a softening labor market and moderating inflationary pressures .
However , some analysts are putting the odds closer to 5050 , citing strong economic indicators .
Inflation is still a factor , with the annual rate at 2.7% for the 12 months ending July 2025 .
(04:13):
While it's holding steady , it's still above the Fed's 2% target , and there's an expectation that inflation could reaccelerate above 3% in the second half of the year due to those tariffs .
The labor market is definitely showing signs of weakening , with US job openings falling in July to near a 4.5year low .
(04:34):
Employment gains have also slowed significantly .
Everyone's got their eyes glued to the upcoming August jobs report on Friday , September 5th , with economists forecasting another weak increase in nonfarm payrolls .
This softening is a key factor supporting those rate cut expectations .
GDP growth for the third quarter is also moderating , with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimating 3.0% , down from 3.5% just a few days ago .
(05:05):
Goldman Sachs is slightly lower at 1.7% .
So , we're looking at a moderate downshift in growth for Q3 .
Alright , let's talk brass tacks .
What should you be doing with your money in this environment ?
The market has a bit of a ' riskon ' sentiment , thanks to tech strength and the anticipation of Fed rate cuts , but we're also balancing that with lingering concerns over inflation , tariffs , and a cooling labor market .
Here are my recommendations (05:33):
First , for my growthoriented investors who are looking at technology and AI .
The tech and communication services sectors are on fire , bolstered by those favorable court rulings for giants like Alphabet and the continued buzz around AI .
Lower interest rates generally help growth stocks , making their future earnings look even better .
(05:58):
So , consider the Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ , which gives you concentrated exposure to the Nasdaq100's big tech names .
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLK , is another great option for targeted tech exposure .
And if you're into individual stocks , keep an eye on Alphabet , GOOGL , and Apple , AAPL , given their recent boosts .
(06:24):
For highergrowth , smallercap plays , Palantir Technologies , PLTR , or Zscaler , ZS , are showing strong earnings growth forecasts .
Second , for those looking for stability and income , it's wise to consider some defensive and fixedincome assets .
Despite the tech rally , those macroeconomic uncertainties mean a diversified approach is prudent .
(06:47):
Expected Fed rate cuts can benefit fixedincome instruments .
So , look at the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , BND , or the iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF , AGG .
These offer broad exposure to investmentgrade US bonds , providing stability and income .
Also , the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLU , is a defensive play with stable earnings , offering downside protection and potentially benefiting from increasing AI power demand .
(07:19):
And don't forget SPDR Gold Shares , GLD .
Gold is a classic safehaven asset , especially with lower real interest rates and ongoing geopolitical risks .
UBS even has a target of 3,700 an ounce by mid2026 for gold .
Third , for broad market diversification , you can't go wrong with core holdings that capture overall economic growth .
(07:48):
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , SPY , or its cousins iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF , IVV , and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , are excellent choices to track the S&P 500 .
For even wider exposure , consider the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , VTI , which covers the entire US stock market , including large , mid , small , and microcap stocks .
Lastly , a few important considerations (08:18):
The Federal Reserve meeting on September 17th is a pivotal event , so watch closely for their decision and Chair Powell's commentary .
The August jobs report coming out tomorrow , September 5th , will also be crucial in shaping expectations for those rate cuts .
(08:38):
And keep an eye on inflation's trajectory ; any reacceleration due to tariffs could lead to more volatility .
In essence , the US stock market is benefiting from robust tech performance and the anticipation of rate cuts , but vigilance is key .
A diversified portfolio balancing growth with defensive positions is what I'm recommending .
(09:01):
That's all for today's Spy Trader .
I'm Bucks Brawley , and I'll catch you next time for more market insights .
Happy trading !
Welcome back to Spy Trader , your goto podcast for navigating the markets .
I'm your host , Bucks Brawley , and it's 6 am on Thursday , September 4th , 2025 , Pacific .
We're here to break down the latest , give you the insights , and help you make those smart moves .
Let's dive right in .
The US stock market is showing a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture right now .
(00:25):
On Wednesday , the techheavy Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 both saw gains , rising 1% and 0.5% respectively .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average , however , experienced a slight dip of 0.1% .
As we start our Thursday , futures are showing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edging a bit higher , while Dow futures are slightly down , reflecting a balanced sentiment as we await some key labor market data .
(00:57):
The S&P 500 Index is currently hovering around 6,448.27 .
Now , for the big news items .
The tech sector received a significant boost thanks to a US court ruling on September 1st , which largely blocked efforts to break up Google .
This news sent shares of Alphabet , ticker GOOGL , soaring by 9% on Wednesday !
(01:23):
Not to be outdone , Apple , ticker AAPL , jumped 3.8% , also benefiting from plans for its own AIdriven search engine .
On the earnings front , it's been a busy few days .
Salesforce , ticker CRM , saw its shares fall over 7% in premarket trading this morning after delivering some disappointing guidance , despite betterthanexpected quarterly results .
(01:49):
Other companies like Macy's , Campbell's , Dollar Tree , Polestar Automotive , PagerDuty , and American Eagle Outfitters also released their quarterly reports , giving us plenty to chew on .
Broadcom , ticker AVGO , is also set to report later this week , so keep an eye on that .
We're also seeing ongoing tariffrelated concerns impacting investor sentiment .
(02:14):
A recent federal appeals court ruling deemed most of President Donald Trump's tariffs illegal , which could lead to significant government repayments , and business executives are expressing wariness about the impacts on their planning .
So , what does this all mean for your portfolio ?
Let's talk about it .
The technology and communication services sectors are really leading the charge .
(02:40):
The Technology Select Sector SPDR , XLK , and the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR , XLC , both advanced nicely on Wednesday .
This strength is clearly fueled by those favorable court rulings and the continued buzz around AI .
Yeartodate , Communication Services and Industrials have been top performers .
(03:02):
The Utilities sector , XLU , has also been a steady hand , especially during market uncertainty .
On the flip side , the Energy Select Sector SPDR , XLE , tumbled 2.2% on Wednesday , with the sector facing downward revisions due to lower oil prices .
Healthcare and Real Estate are looking a bit undervalued , having seen some declines in Q2 .
(03:27):
Now , for the macroeconomic picture , which is always crucial .
The Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision is just around the corner , on September 17th .
There's a strong likelihood of a 25basispoint interest rate cut , which would be the first of 2025 , moving the target range to between 4.00% and 4.25% .
(03:51):
This potential cut is driven by a softening labor market and moderating inflationary pressures .
However , some analysts are putting the odds closer to 5050 , citing strong economic indicators .
Inflation is still a factor , with the annual rate at 2.7% for the 12 months ending July 2025 .
(04:13):
While it's holding steady , it's still above the Fed's 2% target , and there's an expectation that inflation could reaccelerate above 3% in the second half of the year due to those tariffs .
The labor market is definitely showing signs of weakening , with US job openings falling in July to near a 4.5year low .
(04:34):
Employment gains have also slowed significantly .
Everyone's got their eyes glued to the upcoming August jobs report on Friday , September 5th , with economists forecasting another weak increase in nonfarm payrolls .
This softening is a key factor supporting those rate cut expectations .
GDP growth for the third quarter is also moderating , with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimating 3.0% , down from 3.5% just a few days ago .
(05:05):
Goldman Sachs is slightly lower at 1.7% .
So , we're looking at a moderate downshift in growth for Q3 .
Alright , let's talk brass tacks .
What should you be doing with your money in this environment ?
The market has a bit of a ' riskon ' sentiment , thanks to tech strength and the anticipation of Fed rate cuts , but we're also balancing that with lingering concerns over inflation , tariffs , and a cooling labor market .
Here are my recommendations (05:33):
First , for my growthoriented investors who are looking at technology and AI .
The tech and communication services sectors are on fire , bolstered by those favorable court rulings for giants like Alphabet and the continued buzz around AI .
Lower interest rates generally help growth stocks , making their future earnings look even better .
(05:58):
So , consider the Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ , which gives you concentrated exposure to the Nasdaq100's big tech names .
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLK , is another great option for targeted tech exposure .
And if you're into individual stocks , keep an eye on Alphabet , GOOGL , and Apple , AAPL , given their recent boosts .
(06:24):
For highergrowth , smallercap plays , Palantir Technologies , PLTR , or Zscaler , ZS , are showing strong earnings growth forecasts .
Second , for those looking for stability and income , it's wise to consider some defensive and fixedincome assets .
Despite the tech rally , those macroeconomic uncertainties mean a diversified approach is prudent .
(06:47):
Expected Fed rate cuts can benefit fixedincome instruments .
So , look at the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , BND , or the iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF , AGG .
These offer broad exposure to investmentgrade US bonds , providing stability and income .
Also , the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLU , is a defensive play with stable earnings , offering downside protection and potentially benefiting from increasing AI power demand .
(07:19):
And don't forget SPDR Gold Shares , GLD .
Gold is a classic safehaven asset , especially with lower real interest rates and ongoing geopolitical risks .
UBS even has a target of 3,700 an ounce by mid2026 for gold .
Third , for broad market diversification , you can't go wrong with core holdings that capture overall economic growth .
(07:48):
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , SPY , or its cousins iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF , IVV , and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , are excellent choices to track the S&P 500 .
For even wider exposure , consider the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , VTI , which covers the entire US stock market , including large , mid , small , and microcap stocks .
Lastly , a few important considerations (08:18):
The Federal Reserve meeting on September 17th is a pivotal event , so watch closely for their decision and Chair Powell's commentary .
The August jobs report coming out tomorrow , September 5th , will also be crucial in shaping expectations for those rate cuts .
(08:38):
And keep an eye on inflation's trajectory ; any reacceleration due to tariffs could lead to more volatility .
In essence , the US stock market is benefiting from robust tech performance and the anticipation of rate cuts , but vigilance is key .
A diversified portfolio balancing growth with defensive positions is what I'm recommending .
(09:01):
That's all for today's Spy Trader .
I'm Bucks Brawley , and I'll catch you next time for more market insights .
Happy trading !
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