Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Hey there , Spy Traders !
I'm your host , Marty Marketmover , and it's 6 am on Tuesday , September 16th , 2025 , Pacific time .
Grab your coffee , because we've got a lot to unpack on this early morning edition .
The market is buzzing with activity , pushing towards new highs , and we're going to break down what's driving it , what it means for your portfolio , and where the smart money is moving .
First up , the big picture (00:23):
The US stock market is showing incredible momentum !
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are surging today , with the Nasdaq 100 looking to notch its tenth consecutive day of gains .
Yesterday , both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record intraday highs , with the S&P 500 , or US500 , hitting 6634 points today .
(00:53):
That's a 0.29% gain from yesterday , nearly 3% over the past month , and a stunning 17.74% rise yearoveryear !
This rally is largely thanks to widespread expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut , which is pretty much the talk of the town right now , along with generally solid corporate earnings .
(01:16):
On the company front , we've seen some big movers .
Alphabet , ticker GOOGL , absolutely surged 4.5% , pushing its market cap above a whopping 3 trillion dollars – a huge contributor to the S&P 500's rise .
Tesla , TSLA , climbed 3.6% after CEO Elon Musk reportedly bought a billion dollars worth of stock , which is a pretty clear signal of confidence .
(01:46):
Oracle , ORCL , saw a nearly 5% jump in premarket trading on rumors about its role in a potential USChina deal regarding TikTok .
Nvidia , NVDA , finished flat yesterday amidst reports of China flagging antitrust concerns with its Mellanox acquisition , but the broader tech sector , especially AI plays , remains strong .
(02:08):
The biggest news of the week , hands down , is the Federal Open Market Committee , or FOMC , meeting happening today and tomorrow .
The market is practically screaming for a 25basispoint interest rate cut , which would be the first cut this year , bringing the federal funds rate down to 4.00%4.25% .
(02:29):
While a 50basispoint cut is a long shot , the market has largely priced in that quarterpoint reduction .
So , keep an eye out for a potential ' sell the news' event , especially in more speculative assets .
Now , for the deeper dive and what it all means for you .
Our market is in a fascinating spot (02:46):
strong upward momentum in equities , especially in tech and largecap growth , but it's mixed with some concerning macroeconomic signals .
Inflation , for instance , is a bit ' sticky , ' with the US Consumer Price Index , or CPI , rising to 2.9% yearoveryear in August – the highest since January !
(03:07):
Core CPI is also holding steady .
And the labor market ?
It's showing significant signs of weakening .
We only added 22,000 jobs in August , far below expectations , and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% , its highest since late 2021 .
Plus , there were massive downward revisions to previous job reports , indicating 911,000 fewer jobs created than initially thought .
(03:37):
This softening labor market is a huge factor behind the Fed's expected rate cut .
Despite these headwinds , GDP growth actually rebounded to a healthy 3.0% in Q2 after a contraction in Q1 , so the economy isn't falling off a cliff just yet .
Mortgage rates have also dropped to an 11month low of 6.35% thanks to the anticipated Fed action .
(04:02):
Sectorwise , Consumer NonCyclical has been the top performer yeartodate , up over 20% , followed closely by Technology and Capital Goods .
Today , Energy and Materials are leading the charge in futures trading , benefiting from rising commodity prices and easing inflation concerns .
(04:22):
Interestingly , August saw a bit of a rotation , with Health Care jumping 5.4% and smallcap stocks , measured by the Russell 2000 , soaring 7.1% , hinting that investors might be looking beyond the megacap tech giants .
So , what's a savvy Spy Trader to do in this environment ?
Here are my recommendations (04:43):
First , Embrace Diversification with a Tilt Towards Value and SmallCap .
While megacap growth has been the darling , the recent outperformance of smallcaps and value in August suggests a broadening market .
So , while maintaining your core broad market exposure with something like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , VTI , or the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , SPY , consider tactically increasing your allocation to value and smallcap segments .
(05:15):
For value , look at the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF , IVE , or the Vanguard Value ETF , VTV .
For smallcap exposure , the iShares Russell 2000 ETF , IWM , or the Vanguard SmallCap ETF , VB , could be great additions , especially since smallcaps jumped last month and are still trading at a discount .
(05:39):
Second , Maintain Cautious but Continued Exposure to Technology , Focusing on Profitable AIadjacent Companies .
Tech is still a powerhouse , but valuations are high for some giants , and regulatory scrutiny , like with Nvidia , is a factor .
Stay selective !
For diversified tech , the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLK , is a solid choice .
(06:03):
Keep an eye on companies like Oracle , ORCL , given its potential in international deals , and favor AI companies with strong fundamentals and clear paths to profit , rather than just hype .
Third , Consider Fixed Income for Stability , Particularly ShorterDuration Bonds .
With the expected Fed rate cuts , bonds can offer stability and attractive yields .
(06:27):
The 10year US Treasury yield has already dipped to 4.082% .
For broad fixedincome exposure , consider the iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF , AGG , or the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , BND .
If you want to capitalize on shortterm rate movements , look into shortterm Treasury ETFs .
(06:51):
Fourth , Monitor Cyclical Sectors with Caution .
While Energy and Materials are strong today , and Consumer Discretionary has performed well , the weakening labor market and potential for slower GDP growth mean caution is warranted .
For those with higher risk tolerance , the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLE , and the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLB , could be tactical plays , but always keep an eye on economic data .
Finally , and this is a big one (07:23):
Watch for ' Sell the News ' in RateSensitive Assets .
Since a 25 bps Fed cut is largely priced in , if the actual announcement tomorrow doesn't exceed expectations , we could see a shortterm dip , especially in highly speculative assets like cryptocurrencies .
(07:43):
Longterm investors shouldn't overreact , but traders might consider hedging or reducing exposure to very speculative assets right before the announcement .
To wrap it up , the market is showing incredible resilience , driven by tech and rate cut expectations .
But don't forget those macroeconomic headwinds like the weakening labor market and sticky inflation .
(08:06):
A diversified approach , favoring undervalued segments and staying cautious with highly valued growth , especially around that Fed announcement , is your best bet .
That's all for this edition of Spy Trader !
I'm Marty Marketmover , and I'll catch you next time .
Happy trading !