July 1, 2025 • 7 mins
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1279.
Welcome back to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for navigating the market's twists and turns! I'm your host, Barometer Bob, and it's 6 pm on Tuesday, July 1st, 2025, Pacific time. We've got a lot to unpack today as the US stock market continues its interesting dance. First up, a quick summary of what's been moving the needle. The market today is a bit of a mixed bag. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is actually up nicely by 0.91 percent, pushing it to 44,494.94. But on the flip side, the techheavy Nasdaq Composite is down 0.82 percent at 20,202.89, and the S&P 500 is also slightly in the red, down 0.11 percent at 6,198.01. Now, while today shows some divergence, let's remember the bigger picture: both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recently hit alltime highs and have seen some truly impressive gains. The S&P 500 was up nearly 4 percent in June, and the Nasdaq soared over 6.5 percent! Looking at the last quarter, the S&P 500 is up over 10.5 percent and the Nasdaq almost 18 percent. So, a slight pause today after a powerful run. As for sectors, Materials, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, Real Estate, Industrials, and Utilities are all enjoying positive gains today. Financials and Industrials have also been strong all year. The sectors pulling back today are Technology and Communication Services. This comes after the Nasdaq, driven by tech, rallied a whopping 33 percent since its April 8th low. Overall market sentiment has been largely positive thanks to a few key developments. We've seen easing trade tensions, with China tariff policy deescalating and Canada rescinding its digital services tax, which is great news for global trade. There are also high hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the coming months, with the Fed indicating two more cuts for 2025. This optimism has really buoyed spirits. Earlier in the year, strong corporate earnings and encouraging economic data also helped fuel the market's recovery. Now, let's dive into some analysis and insights. The current dip in the tech sector seems like a classic case of profittaking after its massive rally. When a sector climbs 33 percent in a couple of months, it's natural for some investors to lock in those gains. Meanwhile, the strength in more defensive or cyclical sectors like Health Care and Materials suggests investors might be rotating, perhaps looking for stability or betting on a broader economic recovery beyond just big tech. Macroeconomic conditions present a bit of a nuanced picture for the latter half of 2025. The US economy is expected to slow down. We actually saw real GDP decrease by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025, a significant reversal from the end of 2024. Personal income and spending also saw decreases in May, suggesting consumer demand might hit a 'demand cliff' after some frontloaded purchases earlier in the year. Core PCE inflation ticked up slightly in May to 2.7 percent yearoveryear, but it's still at its lowest in four years. However, there's a concern that renewed inflationary pressure could emerge by yearend, possibly rising towards 3.1 percent due to higher tariffs. The labor market is cooling but appears stable, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2 percent in May. And a quick note on the US national debt: it continues to climb rapidly, now over 36.2 trillion dollars. Shifting to company specific news, we're seeing some interesting movements. Tesla shares are falling due to an escalating public spat between CEO Elon Musk and Donald Trump, combined with some downward revisions in delivery estimates. On the brighter side, Oracle shares are near alltime highs thanks to lucrative new cloud deals, and Apple is reportedly exploring partnerships with OpenAI or Anthropic for AIenhanced Siri. Among today's top gainers are companies like Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, Builders Firstsource, Packaging Corp of America, and MGM Resorts Internationa
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome back to Spy Trader , your goto podcast for navigating the market's twists and turns !
I'm your host , Barometer Bob , and it's 6 pm on Tuesday , July 1st , 2025 , Pacific time .
We've got a lot to unpack today as the US stock market continues its interesting dance .
First up , a quick summary of what's been moving the needle .
(00:23):
The market today is a bit of a mixed bag .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is actually up nicely by 0.91 percent , pushing it to 44,494.94 .
But on the flip side , the techheavy Nasdaq Composite is down 0.82 percent at 20,202.89 , and the S&P 500 is also slightly in the red , down 0.11 percent at 6,198.01 .
Now , while today shows some divergence , let's remember the bigger picture (00:55):
both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recently hit alltime highs and have seen some truly impressive gains .
The S&P 500 was up nearly 4 percent in June , and the Nasdaq soared over 6.5 percent !
Looking at the last quarter , the S&P 500 is up over 10.5 percent and the Nasdaq almost 18 percent .
(01:22):
So , a slight pause today after a powerful run .
As for sectors , Materials , Health Care , Consumer Staples , Energy , Financials , Real Estate , Industrials , and Utilities are all enjoying positive gains today .
Financials and Industrials have also been strong all year .
The sectors pulling back today are Technology and Communication Services .
(01:45):
This comes after the Nasdaq , driven by tech , rallied a whopping 33 percent since its April 8th low .
Overall market sentiment has been largely positive thanks to a few key developments .
We've seen easing trade tensions , with China tariff policy deescalating and Canada rescinding its digital services tax , which is great news for global trade .
(02:09):
There are also high hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the coming months , with the Fed indicating two more cuts for 2025 .
This optimism has really buoyed spirits .
Earlier in the year , strong corporate earnings and encouraging economic data also helped fuel the market's recovery .
Now , let's dive into some analysis and insights .
(02:32):
The current dip in the tech sector seems like a classic case of profittaking after its massive rally .
When a sector climbs 33 percent in a couple of months , it's natural for some investors to lock in those gains .
Meanwhile , the strength in more defensive or cyclical sectors like Health Care and Materials suggests investors might be rotating , perhaps looking for stability or betting on a broader economic recovery beyond just big tech .
(03:00):
Macroeconomic conditions present a bit of a nuanced picture for the latter half of 2025 .
The US economy is expected to slow down .
We actually saw real GDP decrease by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 , a significant reversal from the end of 2024 .
Personal income and spending also saw decreases in May , suggesting consumer demand might hit a ' demand cliff ' after some frontloaded purchases earlier in the year .
(03:31):
Core PCE inflation ticked up slightly in May to 2.7 percent yearoveryear , but it's still at its lowest in four years .
However , there's a concern that renewed inflationary pressure could emerge by yearend , possibly rising towards 3.1 percent due to higher tariffs .
The labor market is cooling but appears stable , with unemployment holding steady at 4.2 percent in May .
And a quick note on the US national debt (03:57):
it continues to climb rapidly , now over 36.2 trillion dollars .
Shifting to company specific news , we're seeing some interesting movements .
Tesla shares are falling due to an escalating public spat between CEO Elon Musk and Donald Trump , combined with some downward revisions in delivery estimates .
(04:22):
On the brighter side , Oracle shares are near alltime highs thanks to lucrative new cloud deals , and Apple is reportedly exploring partnerships with OpenAI or Anthropic for AIenhanced Siri .
Among today's top gainers are companies like Las Vegas Sands , Wynn Resorts , Builders Firstsource , Packaging Corp of America , and MGM Resorts International , which are showing strength in their respective sectors .
(04:48):
So , what does all this mean for your portfolio ?
Here are some concrete recommendations .
First , consider rebalancing your sector exposure .
Given the anticipated economic slowdown in the second half of the year and potential for increased volatility , defensive sectors like Health Care and Consumer Staples could be attractive .
(05:09):
They tend to offer more stability when the economy decelerates .
Also , keep an eye on Industrials and Financials ; they've been strong yeartodate and could continue to benefit from improving conditions or potentially lower interest rates .
For technology , be cautious after its strong run .
While the longterm outlook for tech , especially in AI , remains robust , the recent outsized rally and today's pullback suggest it might see some shortterm consolidation .
(05:38):
Be selective and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and clear growth catalysts , particularly in the AI space .
Second , monitor macroeconomic indicators very closely .
Keep an eye on inflation data , especially Core PCE .
Any significant reacceleration due to tariffs could influence the Fed's ratecut trajectory , which in turn impacts market sentiment .
(06:03):
Also , watch for more signs of economic deceleration in data like GDP , consumer spending , and employment .
Third , prioritize quality and fundamentals .
In this mixed economic environment , focus on companies with strong balance sheets , consistent earnings , and clear competitive advantages .
(06:24):
This can help mitigate risks during potential market downturns .
Fourth , stay informed on policy developments .
While trade tensions have eased , any resurgence could negatively impact the market .
Also , ongoing debates on US tax bills and budget legislation , especially the extension of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions , could significantly impact corporate earnings and the broader economy .
(06:50):
Finally , consider a dollarcost averaging strategy .
With the potential for increased volatility , investing a fixed amount regularly can help you build positions over time and mitigate the risk of putting all your money in at a market peak .
By keeping these points in mind , you can navigate the evolving US stock market landscape more effectively .
(07:13):
That's all for today's Spy Trader .
I'm Barometer Bob , and I'll catch you next time !
Welcome back to Spy Trader , your goto podcast for navigating the market's twists and turns !
I'm your host , Barometer Bob , and it's 6 pm on Tuesday , July 1st , 2025 , Pacific time .
We've got a lot to unpack today as the US stock market continues its interesting dance .
First up , a quick summary of what's been moving the needle .
(00:23):
The market today is a bit of a mixed bag .
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is actually up nicely by 0.91 percent , pushing it to 44,494.94 .
But on the flip side , the techheavy Nasdaq Composite is down 0.82 percent at 20,202.89 , and the S&P 500 is also slightly in the red , down 0.11 percent at 6,198.01 .
Now , while today shows some divergence , let's remember the bigger picture (00:55):
both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recently hit alltime highs and have seen some truly impressive gains .
The S&P 500 was up nearly 4 percent in June , and the Nasdaq soared over 6.5 percent !
Looking at the last quarter , the S&P 500 is up over 10.5 percent and the Nasdaq almost 18 percent .
(01:22):
So , a slight pause today after a powerful run .
As for sectors , Materials , Health Care , Consumer Staples , Energy , Financials , Real Estate , Industrials , and Utilities are all enjoying positive gains today .
Financials and Industrials have also been strong all year .
The sectors pulling back today are Technology and Communication Services .
(01:45):
This comes after the Nasdaq , driven by tech , rallied a whopping 33 percent since its April 8th low .
Overall market sentiment has been largely positive thanks to a few key developments .
We've seen easing trade tensions , with China tariff policy deescalating and Canada rescinding its digital services tax , which is great news for global trade .
(02:09):
There are also high hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the coming months , with the Fed indicating two more cuts for 2025 .
This optimism has really buoyed spirits .
Earlier in the year , strong corporate earnings and encouraging economic data also helped fuel the market's recovery .
Now , let's dive into some analysis and insights .
(02:32):
The current dip in the tech sector seems like a classic case of profittaking after its massive rally .
When a sector climbs 33 percent in a couple of months , it's natural for some investors to lock in those gains .
Meanwhile , the strength in more defensive or cyclical sectors like Health Care and Materials suggests investors might be rotating , perhaps looking for stability or betting on a broader economic recovery beyond just big tech .
(03:00):
Macroeconomic conditions present a bit of a nuanced picture for the latter half of 2025 .
The US economy is expected to slow down .
We actually saw real GDP decrease by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 , a significant reversal from the end of 2024 .
Personal income and spending also saw decreases in May , suggesting consumer demand might hit a ' demand cliff ' after some frontloaded purchases earlier in the year .
(03:31):
Core PCE inflation ticked up slightly in May to 2.7 percent yearoveryear , but it's still at its lowest in four years .
However , there's a concern that renewed inflationary pressure could emerge by yearend , possibly rising towards 3.1 percent due to higher tariffs .
The labor market is cooling but appears stable , with unemployment holding steady at 4.2 percent in May .
And a quick note on the US national debt (03:57):
it continues to climb rapidly , now over 36.2 trillion dollars .
Shifting to company specific news , we're seeing some interesting movements .
Tesla shares are falling due to an escalating public spat between CEO Elon Musk and Donald Trump , combined with some downward revisions in delivery estimates .
(04:22):
On the brighter side , Oracle shares are near alltime highs thanks to lucrative new cloud deals , and Apple is reportedly exploring partnerships with OpenAI or Anthropic for AIenhanced Siri .
Among today's top gainers are companies like Las Vegas Sands , Wynn Resorts , Builders Firstsource , Packaging Corp of America , and MGM Resorts International , which are showing strength in their respective sectors .
(04:48):
So , what does all this mean for your portfolio ?
Here are some concrete recommendations .
First , consider rebalancing your sector exposure .
Given the anticipated economic slowdown in the second half of the year and potential for increased volatility , defensive sectors like Health Care and Consumer Staples could be attractive .
(05:09):
They tend to offer more stability when the economy decelerates .
Also , keep an eye on Industrials and Financials ; they've been strong yeartodate and could continue to benefit from improving conditions or potentially lower interest rates .
For technology , be cautious after its strong run .
While the longterm outlook for tech , especially in AI , remains robust , the recent outsized rally and today's pullback suggest it might see some shortterm consolidation .
(05:38):
Be selective and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and clear growth catalysts , particularly in the AI space .
Second , monitor macroeconomic indicators very closely .
Keep an eye on inflation data , especially Core PCE .
Any significant reacceleration due to tariffs could influence the Fed's ratecut trajectory , which in turn impacts market sentiment .
(06:03):
Also , watch for more signs of economic deceleration in data like GDP , consumer spending , and employment .
Third , prioritize quality and fundamentals .
In this mixed economic environment , focus on companies with strong balance sheets , consistent earnings , and clear competitive advantages .
(06:24):
This can help mitigate risks during potential market downturns .
Fourth , stay informed on policy developments .
While trade tensions have eased , any resurgence could negatively impact the market .
Also , ongoing debates on US tax bills and budget legislation , especially the extension of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions , could significantly impact corporate earnings and the broader economy .
(06:50):
Finally , consider a dollarcost averaging strategy .
With the potential for increased volatility , investing a fixed amount regularly can help you build positions over time and mitigate the risk of putting all your money in at a market peak .
By keeping these points in mind , you can navigate the evolving US stock market landscape more effectively .
(07:13):
That's all for today's Spy Trader .
I'm Barometer Bob , and I'll catch you next time !
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