September 17, 2025 • 8 mins
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1368.
This episode breaks down today's market, highlighting an anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cut fueling S&P 500 and Nasdaq record highs, alongside significant company movements from Oracle's AI deals to Tesla's surge. It explores a 'positively cautious' economic outlook, driven by bullish Fed policy effects on growth stocks tempered by a weakening labor market and persistent inflation. Portfolio advice includes maintaining broad market exposure with a tech/growth tilt, considering undervalued sectors, balancing with fixed income, and hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Hey there , Spy Traders !
Welcome back to your favorite financial podcast , Spy Trader , with your host , Rocky Markets .
It's 6 am on Wednesday , September 17th , 2025 , Pacific time , and wow , do we have a lot to unpack this morning !
The market is buzzing , and we're here to break down what's happening and where the smart money is moving .
(00:22):
Let's jump right into the key headlines .
The biggest news everyone is watching today is the Federal Reserve meeting , where markets are pricing in a 96% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut .
This would be the first cut of the year , and it’s largely been the fuel for our recent market rally .
(00:44):
Speaking of rallies , the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit alltime highs recently , though we saw a slight slip yesterday , Tuesday , September 16th , as investors took a little profit ahead of the Fed announcement .
On the company front , we've had some big movers .
Oracle , ORCL , absolutely soared on Monday after a ' blowout ' revenue growth forecast for its cloud infrastructure and a massive 300 billion dollar computing deal with OpenAI , really reinforcing that AI theme .
(01:18):
Tesla , TSLA , also had a great run , surging 7.4% on Friday after its Chair publicly supported Elon Musk , and then another 3% on Monday when Musk himself bought a billion dollars in stock .
Alphabet , GOOGL , joined the exclusive 3 trillion market cap club on Monday , partly thanks to a favorable antitrust ruling earlier this month .
(01:44):
However , not everyone was up ; Nvidia , NVDA , slipped 1.6% yesterday on reports of Chinese antitrust accusations from 2020 .
We also saw Seagate Technology Holdings , STX , and Western Digital , WDC , both hit record highs on Monday , driven by strong demand for large drives needed in AI data centers and reported price hikes .
(02:12):
Even energy companies like APA and OXY rose yesterday as crude oil futures climbed due to concerns over global supply after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian facilities .
Good news for trade too , as positive developments in U.S.China trade talks , including an agreement on TikTok , helped boost investor sentiment on Monday .
(02:35):
Now for the big picture and what it all means for your money .
We're in a really interesting , delicate balance right now .
On one hand , the expected Fed rate cut is generally bullish for equities , especially growth stocks like those in technology and communication services .
These sectors have been leading the charge , with Communication Services up 24.7% yeartodate and Technology up 17.5% through September 12th .
(03:04):
The AI enthusiasm , as seen with Oracle , Seagate , and Western Digital , continues to be a huge driver .
On the flip side , the reason for the rate cut — a weakening labor market and persistent inflation — introduces caution .
US consumer price index , CPI , rose to 2.9% yearoveryear in August , with core CPI at 3.1% , both still above the Fed's 2% target .
(03:32):
And the labor market is clearly softening .
We only added 22,000 jobs in August , far below expectations , and a massive downward revision showed 911,000 fewer jobs were created than previously reported through March 2025 .
The unemployment rate also climbed to 4.3% in August , its highest since late 2021 .
(03:57):
So , while GDP growth is looking decent , with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimating Q3 growth at 3.4% , consumer sentiment , particularly among lower and middleincome households , actually fell in September .
This mixed bag leads to a ' positively cautious ' outlook , with some even whispering about the risk of ' stagflation ' – high inflation with slow growth .
(04:24):
Now , let's talk about what this means for your portfolio .
We've got some concrete recommendations for navigating these waters (04:28):
First , maintain exposure to the broad market , but with a tilt towards growth and quality tech .
The overall market is at record highs , and rate cuts historically favor equities .
The technology and communication services sectors are still showing strong momentum , particularly those involved in AI .
(04:53):
For broad exposure , consider ETFs like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ( VOO ) or the iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF ( IVV ) .
If you want more concentrated tech and growth , the Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ ) is a solid choice , or specific stocks like Alphabet ( GOOGL ) which recently hit that 3 trillion market cap , showcasing its resilience .
(05:21):
For a more targeted tech play , the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLK ) is excellent , capitalizing on companies like Oracle ( ORCL ) with its strong cloud performance and AI deals .
Second , consider rotational plays into potentially undervalued sectors .
While largecap tech has led , we're seeing signs that the rally could broaden .
(05:45):
Smallcap and value stocks have shown recent outperformance in August and remain attractive .
The overall market shows smallcaps are at about a 15% discount to fair value .
For broad market exposure across all market caps , the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) is a great option .
(06:05):
For specific smallcap exposure , consider an ETF like the iShares Russell 2000 ETF ( IWM ) .
We've also seen tactical opportunities ; for instance , the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLE ) could be interesting , given how energy companies like APA Corp.
( APA ) and Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ) recently saw boosts from rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical concerns .
(06:34):
Third , maintain a balanced portfolio with fixed income for stability , but be mindful of duration .
Despite the rate cuts , inflation is still sticky , and the economic outlook carries risks .
Fixed income provides a buffer .
For diversified bond exposure , consider the iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF ( AGG ) or the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND ) .
(07:01):
Given anticipated rate cuts , shorterduration bond ETFs might be preferred initially to reduce interest rate risk , as longterm yields have already fallen .
And finally , hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks .
With headline inflation at 2.9% and core at 3.1% , it's still a concern .
(07:22):
Geopolitical tensions , like the drone strikes impacting oil , can also cause commodity price spikes .
Gold remains a traditional safehaven asset , which has hit record highs recently .
To gain exposure , the SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD ) is a widely used instrument .
So , the bottom line for Spy Traders is a ' positively cautious ' approach .
(07:45):
Focus on highquality growth , diversify across the broad market , but stay alert for shifts into undervalued segments and tactical plays .
And don't forget those hedges !
That's it for today's Spy Trader .
Keep those portfolios diversified , stay sharp , and we'll catch you next time !
Hey there , Spy Traders !
Welcome back to your favorite financial podcast , Spy Trader , with your host , Rocky Markets .
It's 6 am on Wednesday , September 17th , 2025 , Pacific time , and wow , do we have a lot to unpack this morning !
The market is buzzing , and we're here to break down what's happening and where the smart money is moving .
(00:22):
Let's jump right into the key headlines .
The biggest news everyone is watching today is the Federal Reserve meeting , where markets are pricing in a 96% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut .
This would be the first cut of the year , and it’s largely been the fuel for our recent market rally .
(00:44):
Speaking of rallies , the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit alltime highs recently , though we saw a slight slip yesterday , Tuesday , September 16th , as investors took a little profit ahead of the Fed announcement .
On the company front , we've had some big movers .
Oracle , ORCL , absolutely soared on Monday after a ' blowout ' revenue growth forecast for its cloud infrastructure and a massive 300 billion dollar computing deal with OpenAI , really reinforcing that AI theme .
(01:18):
Tesla , TSLA , also had a great run , surging 7.4% on Friday after its Chair publicly supported Elon Musk , and then another 3% on Monday when Musk himself bought a billion dollars in stock .
Alphabet , GOOGL , joined the exclusive 3 trillion market cap club on Monday , partly thanks to a favorable antitrust ruling earlier this month .
(01:44):
However , not everyone was up ; Nvidia , NVDA , slipped 1.6% yesterday on reports of Chinese antitrust accusations from 2020 .
We also saw Seagate Technology Holdings , STX , and Western Digital , WDC , both hit record highs on Monday , driven by strong demand for large drives needed in AI data centers and reported price hikes .
(02:12):
Even energy companies like APA and OXY rose yesterday as crude oil futures climbed due to concerns over global supply after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian facilities .
Good news for trade too , as positive developments in U.S.China trade talks , including an agreement on TikTok , helped boost investor sentiment on Monday .
(02:35):
Now for the big picture and what it all means for your money .
We're in a really interesting , delicate balance right now .
On one hand , the expected Fed rate cut is generally bullish for equities , especially growth stocks like those in technology and communication services .
These sectors have been leading the charge , with Communication Services up 24.7% yeartodate and Technology up 17.5% through September 12th .
(03:04):
The AI enthusiasm , as seen with Oracle , Seagate , and Western Digital , continues to be a huge driver .
On the flip side , the reason for the rate cut — a weakening labor market and persistent inflation — introduces caution .
US consumer price index , CPI , rose to 2.9% yearoveryear in August , with core CPI at 3.1% , both still above the Fed's 2% target .
(03:32):
And the labor market is clearly softening .
We only added 22,000 jobs in August , far below expectations , and a massive downward revision showed 911,000 fewer jobs were created than previously reported through March 2025 .
The unemployment rate also climbed to 4.3% in August , its highest since late 2021 .
(03:57):
So , while GDP growth is looking decent , with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimating Q3 growth at 3.4% , consumer sentiment , particularly among lower and middleincome households , actually fell in September .
This mixed bag leads to a ' positively cautious ' outlook , with some even whispering about the risk of ' stagflation ' – high inflation with slow growth .
(04:24):
Now , let's talk about what this means for your portfolio .
We've got some concrete recommendations for navigating these waters (04:28):
First , maintain exposure to the broad market , but with a tilt towards growth and quality tech .
The overall market is at record highs , and rate cuts historically favor equities .
The technology and communication services sectors are still showing strong momentum , particularly those involved in AI .
(04:53):
For broad exposure , consider ETFs like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF ( VOO ) or the iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF ( IVV ) .
If you want more concentrated tech and growth , the Invesco QQQ Trust ( QQQ ) is a solid choice , or specific stocks like Alphabet ( GOOGL ) which recently hit that 3 trillion market cap , showcasing its resilience .
(05:21):
For a more targeted tech play , the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLK ) is excellent , capitalizing on companies like Oracle ( ORCL ) with its strong cloud performance and AI deals .
Second , consider rotational plays into potentially undervalued sectors .
While largecap tech has led , we're seeing signs that the rally could broaden .
(05:45):
Smallcap and value stocks have shown recent outperformance in August and remain attractive .
The overall market shows smallcaps are at about a 15% discount to fair value .
For broad market exposure across all market caps , the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF ( VTI ) is a great option .
(06:05):
For specific smallcap exposure , consider an ETF like the iShares Russell 2000 ETF ( IWM ) .
We've also seen tactical opportunities ; for instance , the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLE ) could be interesting , given how energy companies like APA Corp.
( APA ) and Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ) recently saw boosts from rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical concerns .
(06:34):
Third , maintain a balanced portfolio with fixed income for stability , but be mindful of duration .
Despite the rate cuts , inflation is still sticky , and the economic outlook carries risks .
Fixed income provides a buffer .
For diversified bond exposure , consider the iShares Core U.S.
Aggregate Bond ETF ( AGG ) or the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND ) .
(07:01):
Given anticipated rate cuts , shorterduration bond ETFs might be preferred initially to reduce interest rate risk , as longterm yields have already fallen .
And finally , hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks .
With headline inflation at 2.9% and core at 3.1% , it's still a concern .
(07:22):
Geopolitical tensions , like the drone strikes impacting oil , can also cause commodity price spikes .
Gold remains a traditional safehaven asset , which has hit record highs recently .
To gain exposure , the SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD ) is a widely used instrument .
So , the bottom line for Spy Traders is a ' positively cautious ' approach .
(07:45):
Focus on highquality growth , diversify across the broad market , but stay alert for shifts into undervalued segments and tactical plays .
And don't forget those hedges !
That's it for today's Spy Trader .
Keep those portfolios diversified , stay sharp , and we'll catch you next time !
Popular Podcasts
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Charlie Kirk Show
Charlie is America's hardest working grassroots activist who has your inside scoop on the biggest news of the day and what's really going on behind the headlines. The founder of Turning Point USA and one of social media's most engaged personalities, Charlie is on the front lines of America’s culture war, mobilizing hundreds of thousands of students on over 3,500 college and high school campuses across the country, bringing you your daily dose of clarity in a sea of chaos all from his signature no-holds-barred, unapologetically conservative, freedom-loving point of view. You can also watch Charlie Kirk on Salem News Channel