The ThreeDay Market Squeeze

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1435. This episode prepares traders for the highly condensed Thanksgiving trading week, where a full slate of economic data (PPI, Retail Sales) and key tech earnings (Salesforce, cybersecurity stocks) are crammed into just three highimpact days, driving extreme volatility. Recommendations focus on defined risk strategies (QQQ puts), tactical long call spreads on secular growth names (CRWD, ZS), and defensive bond positioning (TLT) ahead of crucial economic reports.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Welcome back to Spy Trader , the podcast that helps you navigate market volatility even when the coffee hasn't kicked in yet .
I'm your host , Professor Moneybags , and it is 5 am on Sunday , November 23rd , 2025 , Pacific time .
We are heading into a tricky , volatile , and compressed trading week , thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday , which shuts down the markets on Thursday and gives us a halfday on Friday for Black Friday shopping .

(00:27):
Traders , get ready .
The entire week's worth of economic data and major earnings is crammed into just three highimpact days , primarily centered around Wednesday .
The overall market is facing a clash of forces .
Technically , the S&P 500 , tracked by ETFs like SPY , is showing weakness , having broken below key support levels .

(00:51):
The shortterm trend is bearish , but market direction is going to be driven almost entirely by catalysts this week .
The broad market , represented by QQQ and SPY , sits at neutral to negative , with exceptionally high volatility expected .
Our focus day is Wednesday , November 26th .
Leading up to that , we get the Producer Price Index , or PPI , on Tuesday .

(01:15):
If the PPI is hotter than expected , it suggests rising cost pressures , which is negative for corporate margins and raises fears of hawkish Fed action , negatively impacting both stocks and bonds .
But the real heavyweight is Wednesday's delayed Retail Sales report .
If sales are surprisingly strong , it cheers consumer confidence , but ironically , it reduces the probability of a Fed rate cut , making it potentially negative for stocks .

(01:45):
Conversely , weak Retail Sales reinforces economic slowdown fears , which actually accelerates ratecut expectations .
This uncertainty means the market will likely be stuck in a holding pattern until Wednesday afternoon .
The technology sector , tracked by QQQ and XLK , will be purely eventdriven .

(02:06):
Valuations are stretched , and Tech stocks have already led some of the recent weakness .
The pressure is on for highgrowth software and cloud companies reporting this week .
We are watching core enterprise software bellwethers like Salesforce , reporting Wednesday after the close , and the critical cybersecurity names , CrowdStrike and Zscaler , both reporting Tuesday after hours .

(02:30):
If these companies show continued strong subscription growth , it could provide a muchneeded lift to the QQQ , despite macro concerns .
In the consumer space , the week culminates with Black Friday .
Online sales are projected to hit between 10.8 and 11.9 billion this year .
We favor companies positioned to capture that ecommerce spending , specifically Amazon , which is the largest holding in the Consumer Discretionary ETF , XLY .

(03:02):
Now for our trade recommendations .
Given the high risk associated with market data on Wednesday , we recommend defined risk strategies for the broad indexes .
Hold or use protective puts on ETFs like QQQ to hedge against a macrodriven selloff .
For tactical growth , we recommend focusing on the secular trends in cybersecurity .

(03:26):
We like the potential for long call spreads on names like CRWD or ZS , provided their postearnings reports confirm strong billing and subscription growth .
Their growth stories are often less tied to macro cyclicality .
Finally , for defense and rates , we recommend building a small position in the bond ETF , TLT , ahead of Wednesday's Retail Sales data .

(03:52):
The current implied probability of a Fed rate cut is already high at 71% , and a surprisingly weak economic report would accelerate that ratecut narrative , acting as a strong positive catalyst for longterm bond prices .
That's all the time we have for this highly condensed trading week .
Good luck , manage your risk , and enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday .

(04:15):
Until next time , I'm Professor Moneybags , and you've been listening to Spy Trader .