August 10, 2025 • 9 mins
Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1333.
This week's market outlook focuses on the critical CPI report and its impact on Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, with a 90% probability now on a September cut. The S&P 500 faces resistance while the Nasdaq hits new highs, driven by robust tech earnings, especially in AI. The softening labor market reinforces the case for rate easing. We also discuss President Trump's tariff policies, sector performance (tech, financials, healthcare, energy), and key company earnings from Cisco and AMC. Investment strategy advises a balanced approach with a tilt towards growth (AI) and some defensive exposure, with specific ETF recommendations (VOO, QQQ, XLF, AGG). Cautions include avoiding highly leveraged investments and assessing tariff exposure.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome back , traders , to your favorite financial deep dive , Spy Trader !
I'm your host , Buck Cashman , and it's 6 AM on Sunday , August 10th , 2025 , here on the Pacific Coast .
We're gearing up for another fascinating week in the markets , and let me tell you , it's shaping up to be a real tightrope walk between optimism and caution .
(00:23):
Overall , the US stock market is showing an intermediateterm bullish trend , but we've got some nearterm caution lurking , especially with that S&P 500 eyeing a technical resistance level near 6,427 .
The Nasdaq , however , just hit fresh alltime highs , showing the continued strength in our growthoriented sectors .
(00:46):
Now , let's dive into the key news items that will be driving the market this week .
The absolute biggest economic release hitting our screens will be the Consumer Price Index , or CPI report , for July 2025 .
Mark your calendars for Tuesday , August 12th , at 8:30 AM Eastern Time .
(01:07):
Analysts are forecasting a modest 0.2% increase in the overall CPI for July , following a 0.3% rise in June .
Core CPI , which strips out the volatile food and energy components , is expected to tick up by 0.3% in July , compared to 0.2% in June .
(01:30):
A higherthanexpected inflation figure , especially if driven by services , could certainly throw a wrench into expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts , potentially leading to a market pullback in both bonds and stocks .
Speaking of the Fed , while the Federal Open Market Committee isn't meeting in August , September is their next opportunity for a rate decision .
(01:54):
Following a softer jobs report , expectations for a 25basis point rate cut at that September FOMC meeting have now surged to 90% .
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has even publicly advocated for three rate cuts in 2025 , starting in July , citing signs of fragility in the labor market .
(02:16):
Lower bond yields , driven by these anticipated rate easing moves , are expected to provide a nice boost to the stock market .
On the employment front , the July 2025 jobs report showed a weakerthanexpected gain of just 73,000 nonfarm payroll jobs , with significant downward revisions to May and June figures .
(02:39):
The unemployment rate also nudged up to 4.2% from 4.1% in June .
This softening in the labor market definitely strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to consider those interest rate reductions .
And we can't forget President Trump's tariff policies , which continue to introduce uncertainty .
(02:59):
Reciprocal tariffs on exports from various trading partners became effective on August 7th , and a 100% duty on semiconductor imports , with some key exemptions for US manufacturing , was also recently announced .
These tariffs remain a concern for investors and can certainly affect company earnings forecasts .
(03:20):
Now , let's talk sectors .
Technology continues to be a powerhouse , driving the S&P 500's recovery .
This is largely fueled by robust earnings , especially from AI and AIadjacent companies .
The Nasdaq Composite , as I mentioned , has reached new alltime highs , with Apple and chip stocks leading the charge .
(03:43):
Apple recently announced a substantial increase in its US investment and American Manufacturing Program , including an expanded US silicon supply chain .
However , those new chip tariff threats could introduce some headwinds .
The financial sector is also showing resilience , marked by surging mergers and acquisitions volumes and increased revenues from securities lending .
(04:09):
Digitalization , sustainability , and emerging technologies like generative AI and blockchain are actively reshaping business models within this sector .
In healthcare , employment continues to grow , and AI is increasingly being integrated to enhance efficiency , particularly in administrative functions .
(04:31):
While policy updates in states like Alabama and Nevada aim to support independent pharmacies and expand pharmacists' roles , concerns about potential Medicaid cuts affecting rural hospitals persist .
We also saw news regarding specific companies , such as Eli Lilly's disappointing drug trial results , which can certainly impact individual stock performance for LLY .
(04:55):
Finally , in energy , we're seeing global initiatives focused on digitalization and AI for decarbonization .
Global gas markets are currently stable due to healthy storage , but risks for winter prices remain due to global political tensions and potential US hurricanes .
The ongoing tariff situation and potential sanctions on Russia could also influence energy prices .
(05:20):
As for specific companies , keep an eye on Cisco Systems , ticker CSCO .
They're expected to report their fiscal fourthquarter results after market close on Wednesday , August 13th .
Analysts are anticipating strong performance , driven by Splunk revenue and data center strength .
Also , AMC Entertainment , ticker AMC , is slated to release its Q2 earnings after the close on Monday , August 11th .
(05:50):
Analysts are projecting a narrower loss and revenue growth .
So , what does this all mean for your portfolio ?
Given the mixed signals and potential volatility , a balanced investment strategy with a tilt towards growth sectors , particularly those leveraging AI , while maintaining some defensive exposure , is advisable .
(06:11):
For core broad market exposure , continue holding Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , or iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF , IVV , for diversified exposure to the largecap US market .
These ETFs benefit from the overall economic growth and robust corporate earnings .
(06:33):
Despite potential shortterm fluctuations driven by economic data , the underlying bullish trend for the S&P 500 is projected to continue into late 2025 and 2026 .
If you're looking to enter , consider scaling in after the CPI release on Tuesday or during any significant dips .
(06:55):
For overweight technology exposure , consider Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ , or Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLK , for concentrated exposure to the technology sector .
The tech sector has been a primary market driver , fueled by AI advancements and strong earnings .
(07:15):
Companies like Apple , ticker AAPL , are making significant investments in US manufacturing and silicon supply , which is a positive sign .
Palantir Technologies , ticker PLTR , having recently exceeded 1 billion in quarterly revenue and raised its guidance , also presents a compelling growth story .
(07:37):
While tariff impacts need monitoring , USbased manufacturing initiatives could mitigate some risks .
You should also monitor the financial sector for emerging opportunities .
Consider the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLF .
The financial sector is showing resilience and significant M&A activity .
(07:58):
Ongoing regulatory reforms and the adoption of digital technologies like AI and blockchain within the financial services industry present potential growth avenues .
And for those looking for a defensive hedge against shortterm volatility , especially around that CPI announcement , a small allocation to iShares Core U.S.
(08:18):
Aggregate Bond ETF , AGG , or Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , BND , could be beneficial .
Bond ETFs provide stability and income , acting as a potential buffer against equity market downturns .
Expectations of future Fed rate cuts could also provide support for bond prices over the medium term .
Finally , a word of caution (08:42):
in a period of potential increased market swings , highly leveraged or speculative investments could be more prone to significant losses .
Also , review your exposure to companies whose supply chains or revenue streams might be significantly impacted by new tariff implementations , especially if they lack US manufacturing operations to benefit from those exemptions .
(09:09):
That's all for this edition of Spy Trader !
I'm Buck Cashman , wishing you a profitable and cautious week ahead .
We'll catch you back here soon for another market update .
Welcome back , traders , to your favorite financial deep dive , Spy Trader !
I'm your host , Buck Cashman , and it's 6 AM on Sunday , August 10th , 2025 , here on the Pacific Coast .
We're gearing up for another fascinating week in the markets , and let me tell you , it's shaping up to be a real tightrope walk between optimism and caution .
(00:23):
Overall , the US stock market is showing an intermediateterm bullish trend , but we've got some nearterm caution lurking , especially with that S&P 500 eyeing a technical resistance level near 6,427 .
The Nasdaq , however , just hit fresh alltime highs , showing the continued strength in our growthoriented sectors .
(00:46):
Now , let's dive into the key news items that will be driving the market this week .
The absolute biggest economic release hitting our screens will be the Consumer Price Index , or CPI report , for July 2025 .
Mark your calendars for Tuesday , August 12th , at 8:30 AM Eastern Time .
(01:07):
Analysts are forecasting a modest 0.2% increase in the overall CPI for July , following a 0.3% rise in June .
Core CPI , which strips out the volatile food and energy components , is expected to tick up by 0.3% in July , compared to 0.2% in June .
(01:30):
A higherthanexpected inflation figure , especially if driven by services , could certainly throw a wrench into expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts , potentially leading to a market pullback in both bonds and stocks .
Speaking of the Fed , while the Federal Open Market Committee isn't meeting in August , September is their next opportunity for a rate decision .
(01:54):
Following a softer jobs report , expectations for a 25basis point rate cut at that September FOMC meeting have now surged to 90% .
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has even publicly advocated for three rate cuts in 2025 , starting in July , citing signs of fragility in the labor market .
(02:16):
Lower bond yields , driven by these anticipated rate easing moves , are expected to provide a nice boost to the stock market .
On the employment front , the July 2025 jobs report showed a weakerthanexpected gain of just 73,000 nonfarm payroll jobs , with significant downward revisions to May and June figures .
(02:39):
The unemployment rate also nudged up to 4.2% from 4.1% in June .
This softening in the labor market definitely strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to consider those interest rate reductions .
And we can't forget President Trump's tariff policies , which continue to introduce uncertainty .
(02:59):
Reciprocal tariffs on exports from various trading partners became effective on August 7th , and a 100% duty on semiconductor imports , with some key exemptions for US manufacturing , was also recently announced .
These tariffs remain a concern for investors and can certainly affect company earnings forecasts .
(03:20):
Now , let's talk sectors .
Technology continues to be a powerhouse , driving the S&P 500's recovery .
This is largely fueled by robust earnings , especially from AI and AIadjacent companies .
The Nasdaq Composite , as I mentioned , has reached new alltime highs , with Apple and chip stocks leading the charge .
(03:43):
Apple recently announced a substantial increase in its US investment and American Manufacturing Program , including an expanded US silicon supply chain .
However , those new chip tariff threats could introduce some headwinds .
The financial sector is also showing resilience , marked by surging mergers and acquisitions volumes and increased revenues from securities lending .
(04:09):
Digitalization , sustainability , and emerging technologies like generative AI and blockchain are actively reshaping business models within this sector .
In healthcare , employment continues to grow , and AI is increasingly being integrated to enhance efficiency , particularly in administrative functions .
(04:31):
While policy updates in states like Alabama and Nevada aim to support independent pharmacies and expand pharmacists' roles , concerns about potential Medicaid cuts affecting rural hospitals persist .
We also saw news regarding specific companies , such as Eli Lilly's disappointing drug trial results , which can certainly impact individual stock performance for LLY .
(04:55):
Finally , in energy , we're seeing global initiatives focused on digitalization and AI for decarbonization .
Global gas markets are currently stable due to healthy storage , but risks for winter prices remain due to global political tensions and potential US hurricanes .
The ongoing tariff situation and potential sanctions on Russia could also influence energy prices .
(05:20):
As for specific companies , keep an eye on Cisco Systems , ticker CSCO .
They're expected to report their fiscal fourthquarter results after market close on Wednesday , August 13th .
Analysts are anticipating strong performance , driven by Splunk revenue and data center strength .
Also , AMC Entertainment , ticker AMC , is slated to release its Q2 earnings after the close on Monday , August 11th .
(05:50):
Analysts are projecting a narrower loss and revenue growth .
So , what does this all mean for your portfolio ?
Given the mixed signals and potential volatility , a balanced investment strategy with a tilt towards growth sectors , particularly those leveraging AI , while maintaining some defensive exposure , is advisable .
(06:11):
For core broad market exposure , continue holding Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , or iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF , IVV , for diversified exposure to the largecap US market .
These ETFs benefit from the overall economic growth and robust corporate earnings .
(06:33):
Despite potential shortterm fluctuations driven by economic data , the underlying bullish trend for the S&P 500 is projected to continue into late 2025 and 2026 .
If you're looking to enter , consider scaling in after the CPI release on Tuesday or during any significant dips .
(06:55):
For overweight technology exposure , consider Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ , or Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLK , for concentrated exposure to the technology sector .
The tech sector has been a primary market driver , fueled by AI advancements and strong earnings .
(07:15):
Companies like Apple , ticker AAPL , are making significant investments in US manufacturing and silicon supply , which is a positive sign .
Palantir Technologies , ticker PLTR , having recently exceeded 1 billion in quarterly revenue and raised its guidance , also presents a compelling growth story .
(07:37):
While tariff impacts need monitoring , USbased manufacturing initiatives could mitigate some risks .
You should also monitor the financial sector for emerging opportunities .
Consider the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLF .
The financial sector is showing resilience and significant M&A activity .
(07:58):
Ongoing regulatory reforms and the adoption of digital technologies like AI and blockchain within the financial services industry present potential growth avenues .
And for those looking for a defensive hedge against shortterm volatility , especially around that CPI announcement , a small allocation to iShares Core U.S.
(08:18):
Aggregate Bond ETF , AGG , or Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , BND , could be beneficial .
Bond ETFs provide stability and income , acting as a potential buffer against equity market downturns .
Expectations of future Fed rate cuts could also provide support for bond prices over the medium term .
Finally , a word of caution (08:42):
in a period of potential increased market swings , highly leveraged or speculative investments could be more prone to significant losses .
Also , review your exposure to companies whose supply chains or revenue streams might be significantly impacted by new tariff implementations , especially if they lack US manufacturing operations to benefit from those exemptions .
(09:09):
That's all for this edition of Spy Trader !
I'm Buck Cashman , wishing you a profitable and cautious week ahead .
We'll catch you back here soon for another market update .
Popular Podcasts
New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce
Football’s funniest family duo — Jason Kelce of the Philadelphia Eagles and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs — team up to provide next-level access to life in the league as it unfolds. The two brothers and Super Bowl champions drop weekly insights about the weekly slate of games and share their INSIDE perspectives on trending NFL news and sports headlines. They also endlessly rag on each other as brothers do, chat the latest in pop culture and welcome some very popular and well-known friends to chat with them. Check out new episodes every Wednesday. Follow New Heights on the Wondery App, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen to new episodes early and ad-free, and get exclusive content on Wondery+. Join Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And join our new membership for a unique fan experience by going to the New Heights YouTube channel now!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!