September 12, 2024 • 27 mins
NFL Week 1 Recap and Week 2 Preview: Surprises, Overreactions, and Predictions
Join hosts Nick Ferguson and Alex Hardy as they dive into the whirlwind that was Week 1 of the NFL season and gear up for Week 2. With Nick's extensive NFL experience and Alex's sharp analytical mind, they break down the key moments, surprising performances, and what to expect as the season progresses. This episode covers everything from the low offensive outputs to standout defensive plays, and the hosts debate whether it's time to overreact or stay calm.
Nick and Alex discuss the implications of Week 1's results, including the unexpected performances of teams like the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. They also preview the highly anticipated AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of each team.
Whether you're a die-hard NFL fan or just looking to catch up on the latest football action, this episode is packed with insights and predictions to keep you in the loop.
00:00 Nick Ferguson: Week one of the National Football League season is over
07:57 Nick Saban says we cannot overreact to week one of the NFL season
18:19 Nick Martin: Kirk Cousins' Achilles may be an issue against Atlanta Falcons
27:44 Some of our losers may end up being victors later on in season
Quote:
"Defense wins championships, man. And I love watching defense play well." - Nick Ferguson
Keywords:
NFL, Week 1 Recap, Week 2 Preview, Nick Ferguson, Alex Hardy, Fantasy Football, Defensive Strategies, Offensive Struggles, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, AFC East Showdown, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle, Clint Kubiak, NFL Predictions, NFL Analysis, Ride the Wave Media, Those Guys Podcast, NFL Insights, Player Performances, Football Strategy, NFL Season
Ride the Wave Media, Those Guys Podcast, Nick Ferguson, Alex Hardy, NFL Analysis, Player Predictions, Football Strategy, NFL Tips
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:11):
We are those guys.
We hope to be your guys bringingyou the National Football League.
Week one is completely wrapped up.
Nick Ferguson joining me on aThursday as we count down week
two already getting underway.
I can just see us now.
My goodness, the seasonis flying by, Nick.
It's week two.
Oh, no, it's week four.
Oh, no, it's the playoff.
(00:32):
That's just how things work.
But in this fast and crazyworld, Nick, let's take a stop
and say, what up to the people?
What's happening, Nick?
Everything is going well, man.
But you know what?
You're absolutely right.
It was only week one.
Now we're rolling into week two.
And you know how it's said in the NFL.
Those first four weeks of the season,that first quarter, is so vital because
(00:55):
you have to make sure that you're winningmost of your first four games, because
even though the season is seventeenweeks, if you don't start fast to me, your
season is over, which is which is wild.
But I understand because inbasketball, hockey and baseball, you
can lose your first twenty, thirtygames and still be in the mix.
(01:17):
But it's only in the NFL whereyou lose maybe the first four
games that your your possibilitiesof the playoffs But it's great.
It's week two, and it's really exciting.
So, again, we just went through week one.
The last time you heard from us,we were getting ready for the
Chiefs to defend their back-to-backSuper Bowl championships.
(01:39):
And it's funny because of all of weekone, the best games that we got were
probably those Thursday and Fridayprimetime games in their designated slot.
throwing the Lions and Rams forSunday night football as well.
And we'll get into this a littledeeper, I think, with the fantasy
football, Nick, when we touch on that.
But overall, week one numbers acrossthe National Football League down in
(02:04):
terms of overall passing yardage andtouchdowns and points on the scoreboard.
This is a reflection of youngquarterbacks, lack of preseason play time.
Look, I'm not going to ask you to pinpointone thing, but is this different from the
(02:25):
NFL that you've been studying years past?
Because we're talking about one of thelowest offensive production outputs
since the two thousand seven season.
I think it was.
Yeah, this is what's happening, Alex,is that there's balance being brought
to the force, so to say, because theleague and everyone else is promoted
(02:46):
this league as a passing league.
It's all about the quarterbacks.
And I know people criticize Jay Daniels,Caleb Williams, Drake May, and even Bo
Nix here in Denver and say, well, thoserookie quarterbacks didn't do that well.
But I would say also thoseveteran quarterbacks didn't do
or didn't fare well themselves.
(03:07):
So what we're seeing is that thedefense and the personnel is now
starting to catch up with the offense.
It's almost like the first couple of weeksof training camp, the defense normally
dominates the offense until the offenseis able to input some of the play pass
schemes and they go play action andthings started to balance themselves off.
But for me, I'll say this, from week one,the thing that I got out of week one was
(03:31):
that, It's going to be a lot of scoring.
And the scoring is not going tolook the same that it's looked
in the past because you think ofwhat Boswell did with the Falcons.
I mean, the Steelers won that gamedoing the two things that they do well.
And they've been running isrun the ball and play defense.
And Boswell kicked withlike six field goals.
(03:51):
That's right.
Three from fifty plus.
Yes, it's kind of crazy.
But for me, as being a defensiveguy, I don't know about you.
I don't like all that offense.
I don't like that high score.
And I'm like, forty five, forty one games.
No, I like baseball scores.
Right.
I like those nine, six games.
I know it doesn't move theneedle as far as fantasy football
and the level of excitement.
(04:12):
But defense wins championships, man.
And I love watching defense play.
Well, you make the comparison tobaseball and it definitely reminds me
again, this is more of a labor problemwhere they have so many premier stars
that are still free agents as theystart spring training and, you know,
pitchers kind of get into a grooveand the rotation sort of sets itself.
So it all is harder for pitchers inbaseball to get going at the early part
(04:37):
of the season compared to, you know, oncethey get some more routine built into
their schedules, because you go throughan entire off season and, and much like
in the National Football League, now youstart with preparing yourself and your
body for Sundays and understanding thatyou don't want to show anything in the
(04:57):
preseason, especially the preseason games.
So maybe I'm just...
You're right.
I'm on the other side of the coin.
I'm not advocating forscoring and for points.
But at the same time, Nick, ifthese teams are going to participate
in joint practices and then giveus nothing in the preseason,
(05:19):
I don't really see the difference here.
They have to be vanilla.
They have to hide something from us.
all just for this weekone matchup, as you said.
These games do matter in a seven-teamgame season, and many of these
offenses came out here and laid an egg.
It doesn't make sense to me.
Well, okay.
Let me help you make it make sense.
(05:41):
Okay.
Let's use the example of, let'ssay, the Cincinnati Bengals, right?
Because nobody thought the NewEngland Patriots would beat them.
Nope.
You talk about a defensive matchup.
Luana Marino's defense lost keypieces to that defensive line that
we talked about, the Houston Texansand others reaping the benefits.
(06:01):
They couldn't stop the run,but the offense couldn't put
up more than ten points either.
So what does the rubbermeet the road here?
Well, it is really simple when we lookat it because, I mean, The first week of
the season, as though it was last yearand the year before, what it resembles
is the fourth week in the preseason.
(06:22):
That's exactly what it is, right?
We coined it as, hey, it is the openingseason of the twenty twenty fourth season.
But from the productionstandpoint, we're not getting that.
We're not getting a lot of style points.
We're not getting a lot of creativity.
Because guys are still and coaches arestill working through the nuances of
their scheme because a lot of these guysdidn't play in that third preseason game.
(06:47):
And take it back.
And I don't know the numbers to exact,but I would like to think when we
was back in the old NFL, when I wasplaying, My get off the lawn types.
There you go.
But there was four preseason games.
And in that third preseason game,that was a warm up to the first
start of the game of the season.
(07:07):
The dress rehearsal.
Would play three quarters becausethey needed to come out of the
half to get guys acclimated towhat that is going to look like.
And I don't know about you, but watchingsome of these games, there are a lot
of guys with their hands on theirhips and on their knees sucking air.
That tells you right therethe conditioning isn't there.
So you can't get into an elaborateplay calling system from a coordinator
(07:31):
when your guys are sucking wind.
Part of that is the CBA, right?
The players advocated to haveless practice time and off-season
workouts and participation.
That's a piece of it.
The other piece of it is there arecoaches that this is how they operate.
They will take the risk of theirplayers getting injured in practice
(07:51):
and joint practices where they goup against other teams, but they
do not play preseason games, right?
That's been a staple of theLos Angeles Rams, for example.
and plenty of other teams likethe Atlanta Falcons as well.
Now that that McVeigh tree and thatShanahan tree is about two-thirds
of the National Football League.
At the same time, though, and again,you can't use them as the rule.
(08:17):
They are just the exception.
The Kansas City Chiefs are stillputting Patrick Mahomes out there
for a dozen plays just becauseI think more than anything else,
they could tell him you need tosit and he'll just flat out refuse.
That's just how he is.
That's how he operates.
Nick, you gave us some very wise wordsof optimism and importance and stressing
(08:43):
the fact that we cannot overreact to weekone around the National Football League.
I'm not going to overreactto my New England Patriots.
We're not going to overreact to...
a number of other games that took placeand upsets and, uh, the, the Panthers and
the giants and the, uh, woeful offensesor, um, you know, just the, the, the,
(09:08):
the sheer lack of passing production.
We're not going to overreactat that same time though.
Nick, do you point to a specific playeror team that you saw in week one that
you are fighting against your will?
I won't overreact.
I won't overreact.
Okay, who are we going to overreact tofor their week one performance, Nick?
Well, you know what?
(09:29):
It's kind of a loaded question becausepart of me wants to overreact based
on how this team and this particularquarterback has been kicked to the side.
And I just don't want to justkind of blow it out of the water.
But, I mean, the first obvious for me,Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints.
They have a new offensive coordinator.
(09:50):
And Clint Kubiak, who I happen to know.
And watching Derek Carr in thatgame, and albeit they're playing
against the Carolina Panthers, right?
So you hope that you can get them sevenweeks out of the season, but you can't.
But they were just doing defensivethings and offensive things that
we haven't seen Carr and the Saintsoffense do over the past two seasons.
(10:13):
But they were spectacularagainst the Carolina Panthers.
And oh, by the way, Thathappens to be a divisional game.
And when you look at the NFC South, you'resaying, okay, well, list out all the
great teams in that particular division.
And I thought that Kirk Cousins wasjust going to run roughshod over
(10:33):
that division, but he didn't faretoo well in his showing as Atlanta
quarterback throwing interceptions.
But right now, and it's crazy forme to say, it looks like Derek
Carr and Dennis Allen are thebells of the ball in the NFC South.
They scored on their first,oh, Lord, nine possessions.
(10:56):
I'm counting the box score right here.
One, two, three, four, five, six, seven,eight, nine possessions they score.
And all of a sudden it'sthirty to three at the half.
The influence of Clint Kubiak,obviously playing for Gary
Kubiak, yourself, his father.
kind of open things up for this offense.
(11:17):
You know, we see the deepshots with Rashid Shahid.
You know, they put up, I believeit was a total of three hundred
and seventy nine yards of offense.
Chris Olave not really factoring into it,but they're spreading the football around.
They have a balanced attack withAlvin Kamara and Jamal Williams
(11:39):
combining for over twenty five carries.
This is really interesting for meto follow because it was a Saints
team that based on Derek Carr's playhistory, they don't take too many risks.
He avoids limiting turnovers.
He's a guy to throw it away on thirddown and just bring out the punt
(11:59):
team because he's afraid of turningthe ball over, which I can certainly
understand to a certain extent.
But the efficiency that they played withcomes down to Clint Kubiak's offense
and the lack of Ability, production,success for that Panthers defensive side
of the football, knowing that their bestplayer, Derrick Brown, was placed on IR.
(12:23):
So now teams are just going tobe able to run even more all
over this woeful defense, whichis just totally disappointing.
I don't want to overreact to the NewOrleans Saints either, but you certainly
can't laugh at forty seven pointsregardless of who their opponent is.
Now that they've got the Cowboys, theEagles, and then a divisional matchup
(12:43):
against the Falcons before they goto Kansas City in primetime, we're
going to find out pretty quickly inthe first month what kind of football
team the New Orleans Saints is.
I'm going to overreact.
I'm not even pausing for a moment here.
I'm just blowing rightthrough your advice, Nick.
The Atlanta Falcons are in deep trouble.
I mean, from what I saw against thosePittsburgh Steelers, and you were
(13:06):
alluding to it with Kirk Cousins'play, a quarterback that thrived under
play action and under center offense.
This coming from ESPN stats and info,the Falcons were in pistol or shotgun,
ninety six percent of their snaps,zero design runs out of shotgun,
and they ran the ball on eighty onepercent of their snaps out of pistol.
(13:30):
So, Nick, first of all, they'renot doing what Kirk Cousins was
successful with in Minnesota.
Second of all, They are becomingtransparent with when they line up
in one formation, they're passing.
When they're lining up in theother formation, they're running.
This Achilles injury, which was at alater point in the season than Aaron
(13:52):
Rodgers, obviously, Kirk played morethan four snaps last year, but the
Atlanta Falcons took a risk on a playerwho played his best football in the
span of six games coming off of anincredible Incredibly significant injury.
And out of the gates, you know, we'reseeing a hobbled Kirk Cousins who
(14:15):
took one snap under center, didn'tattempt to pass over twenty yards
and had one of the worst turnoverworthy throw rates in all of week one.
So my question to you is, how doI not overreact knowing that Kirk
Cousins was known for one thing?
The Falcons bring him in.
And to start the year,they do the opposite.
(14:36):
This Achilles injury is clearly lingering.
Well, the reason I say that don'toverreact is because watching the Falcons
offense, they did some real good things.
And the problem was that theydidn't go back to those things
because the Pittsburgh Steelersdefense gave them opportunity.
(14:57):
Now, in critical situations, itseemed as though maybe the coaching
staff and even the players themselvesfrom execution standpoint, they
couldn't understand, you know what?
When you look at the PittsburghSteelers, it's one guy on that
defense that is a game wrecker.
And you always want to know where T.J.
Watt is located.
It seemed as though they didn't do a goodjob of it, so they were not effective.
(15:19):
Yeah, Caleb McGarry losing prettymuch every one-on-one matchup,
not giving him the help he needed.
Exactly.
So that goes back to the coaching,knowing who you're facing from the
scouting report to know I might needto chip him with a running back.
I might need to chip him bymotioning a tight end over.
And if I don't motion the tightend over, actually use orbit a jet
(15:40):
motion to create opportunities.
That's a video I put up on social media.
You can follow me at NickFerguson underscore twenty five.
Yeah, I wanted I wanted to breakthis down because I saw it.
I retweeted it and.
We saw a very productive runfrom the pistol formation
that we were talking about.
The Steelers at this point shouldknow that they're running, and
how are they so successful thatyou detailed on social, Nick?
(16:03):
Well, there were so many opportunitiesthat the Falcons actually rolled
out that could have opened upopportunities throughout the game.
One, I know it's ill-advised.
Well, let's not be in a pistolformation because now they're
putting your quarterback and yourrunning back in a deeper set.
But they use orbit motion, using awide receiver out of the backfield
(16:25):
to get one of the linebackersoutside the box to create.
Yeah, Nick Herbig over-pursued.
Right.
And the outside linebacker got upfieldbecause when Kirk Cousins hand the
ball off, which you're supposed to doevery time you hand the ball off as
a quarterback, you go through certainmotions to set up other plays later on.
So that linebacker from thePittsburgh Steelers, he's thinking,
(16:47):
OK, they're going to run a boot.
But they didn't by himgetting so far upfield.
it left somewhat of like a canvas.
That right side, the properword would be like a chasm.
That's the proper word.
Because Algier kind of got it by fouror five yards to his left side, but the
(17:11):
right side was ready for the taking.
And once again, since you get thatdefender – Coming up the field
so hard, I'm thinking maybe ZachRobinson might have called a boot
play just to kind of test themagain because those plays were open.
And the problem was they neverreally developed those plays.
(17:31):
They never used those plays thatmight have been negative plays as an
advantage because the Steelers defense,man, they were trying to penetrate.
They were trying to get upfield,and sometimes it's the difference
between winning and losing.
And let's not forget, this is ZachRobinson's first opportunity as an OC.
So we can say that Kirk Cousins failedin his opening showing as a quarterback.
(17:56):
No, he didn't reallyblow anyone's doors off.
But as a first-time OC, well,what did you really get?
And I don't think they used B.
John Robinson.
in a proper way so that's why I would sayuh I'm not going to overreact on this on
this loss because we've seen what kirkcousins can do in the past uh and we
know that that offense for the atlantafalcons they do have talent they just
(18:20):
didn't exploit it and use it againstthe steelers well that's my concern and
why I'm overreacting is because kirkcousins you know mentally uh is sharp
but If the Achilles is clearly still anissue, he can't push the ball downfield.
He can't handle the ball.
They're taking him out of situationswhere he has to be on the move,
either under center, which affectsall facets of the running game.
(18:43):
This is just like how theCincinnati Bengals started.
when Joe burrow had that calf issuecoming into the season, they were just
beyond predictable with the way thatthey lined up and the personnel that
they had on the field, they were eithergoing to run or they're going to pass.
And clearly they had, you know, he had anadditional unrelated setback, but I just
worry that for this early part of theseason and for how many people were all
(19:05):
in on this Atlanta Falcons team, they havea lot of work to do with the first, with
the first time play caller and offensivecoordinator and, Raheem Morris back in
as the head coach and Kirk Cousins, who'son a new team dealing with new weapons.
And, you know, I guess in themeantime, the Steelers defense, while
they're going to be aggressive andover pursue those rush lanes to try
(19:25):
to go after the quarterback, I'llbring this up in further detail.
you know, former Steeler Ray RayMcLeod gets his revenge game.
The least likely person you'dexpect to lead the Falcons receiving
core because the Steelers aregoing to that stuff up from slow
receivers pretty much all season.
Exciting to see Joey Porter able tostick on top receivers doing a great
(19:49):
job holding Drake one to two catchesfor fifteen yards on only three targets.
But Nick, we're not going topanic about Drake London just yet.
We may do that a little bit onthe Fantasy Football Podcast.
But again, we're not goingto overreact from week one.
That's not what we are here to do.
One more thing on this game.
(20:11):
The fact that right now, whatyou're saying, it is correct.
And this is kind of a problem.
That is reared his ugly face in the NFL.
So long gone are the days of yourtraditional dropback quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers may be like theonly guy remaining of that group.
I mean, besides her cousins.
(20:32):
So at some point, if you're ZachRobinson and you're Raheem Morris,
you still have to look at it andsay, you have a very talented team.
This is the reason why they wentout and drafted Michael Penix.
And I know some may say,it's early to call for Penix.
But once again, you havea very talented roster.
And I know one thing that makesit a headache for any defense,
(20:55):
I don't care how talented youare, it's a mobile quarterback.
And granted, Penis is not that muchmore mobile than Kirk Cousins, but
he's going to give Zach Robinson anopportunity to do a couple of things
that would threaten the defense, thatwould open up some things, both in
the running and in the passing game.
Nick, before we split, it is Thursday.
(21:18):
We've got, you know, it's not goingto compete with the Chiefs and
the Ravens in an AFC Championshiprematch, but that's opening night.
We still have a division battlebetween the Bills and the
Dolphins, two of the prohibitedfavorites there in the AFC East.
All AFC East teams, other than theJets, by the way, want to know.
(21:39):
Just going to give myselfa pat on the back for that.
But what I thought was interestingwith Buffalo, in their victory.
I'll start with them and thenI'll let you cover your, your,
your native Miami dolphins.
The bills were interesting to me becauseit was really a tale of two halves, right?
They get down.
Seventeen to three to the Cardinals.
(22:01):
The defense allows three straightscoring drives for the Cardinals.
I think it had been the first timein nearly a decade or even fifteen
years that the Cardinals had threestraight scoring possessions on
their opening drive in week one.
Meanwhile, the Bills fumbled a footballafter Josh Allen was strip sacked.
(22:26):
They settled for three on a drive thatthey get all the way down to the four-yard
line, and then penalties set them back.
Then in the second half, they quicklytake over Josh Allen plays hero ball.
He finishes with a lot of deepthrows, a couple rushing touchdowns.
(22:47):
So it's kind of live and die bywhat Josh Allen is going to be
able to do on the football field,which I think most people, that's a
proposition they're willing to take.
But I'd be remiss.
This is where I'm going to fitin our kickoff return discussion,
Nick, because on the openingkick, rookie Brandon Cognton had a
(23:09):
three-yard return for the Cardinals.
against the Cardinals.
And after that point, theydecided to just kick the ball
out the back of the end zone.
And the Bills are now taking the ballout from the thirty instead of the
twenty like we'd seen in years past.
You also have the first returntouchdown for a TD from DJ Dallas
for the Cardinals side of things.
I think it's sort of interesting thatthe kicking rules, while not necessarily
(23:33):
present, you see the value propositionthe Cardinals went through to say, well,
This guy is dangerous, and we're notcalling him Devin Hester, but in many
ways, like Devin Hester, you say, okay,we'll deal with allowing them to take
the ball out at the thirty rather thantry to see if we can pin the Bills back.
So the Bills, to me, are a big rollercoaster, but I do have more concerns for
(23:58):
the defensive side of things than I doon the offensive side of the football.
I guess, Nick, as we sort of moveto the Miami Dolphins side of
things, who are banged up in theirown right, We already know Raheem
Mostert ruled out for this game.
I just, you know, between these twoAFC East powers, who has the advantage
(24:19):
in your eyes and in particular thatDolphins offense that, you know,
obviously the big splash play isa huge component to what they do.
Well, I give the advantage to theMiami Dolphins and Mike McDaniels.
And that's not because I think JoeBrady does do a great job up in Buffalo.
I just look at the weaponsthat the Miami Dolphins have.
(24:45):
Most are not possibly not going toplay, but You still have A-Chain.
You still have Waddle.
You still have Tyreek Hill.
And those guys are always a threat.
And you said it.
I mean, you open up with the ideathat Buffalo and Buffalo was at home.
They were down seventeen three.
And if it wasn't for a hero ball.
(25:06):
by Josh Allen, who I think he's goingto change everyone's opinion of what
type of quarterback he is becausehe doesn't have a lot of weapons.
He's going to do a lot of hero ball.
But it was his efforts that prettymuch got them back into the mix.
And then I'll look at the fact that,you know, the Miami Dolphins were
in kind of a – a tug of war within-state rival Trevor Lawrence and the
(25:29):
Jacksonville Jaguars, but they were ableto pull it off with a late field goal.
So to me, I've always looked at the MiamiDolphins as a battle-tested team, and
knowing as though Mike McDaniels is likeKyle Shanahan, it's always thinking of
what can we do next as an evolution to ourgame, and just looking at The depletion of
(25:50):
Buffalo on both sides of the ball, to me,Miami gets the nod on this one for sure.
And I would be surprised ifthey did not win it outright.
That's fair.
The Dolphins are the home favorites.
They get two and a half point spread.
So we assume that theycan get the job done.
Just a quick turnaround.
(26:10):
And you mentioned HN, thegame time decision, and a huge
component of that offense.
But You know, as that zone blocking schemedoes, as we saw with Kyle Shan, the forty
niners, they'll dust off Jeff Wilson.
We'll assume that the Dolphinscan still run the football
better than most other teams can.
Yeah, just the bills don'tnecessarily have the back end pieces.
(26:33):
Both safeties moving on, includingJordan Poyer from Buffalo now in Miami.
You can expect Tyreek Hill, JalenWaddle to take things off the top.
uh for the dolphins offense as they doin typical fashion so nick that is that
is kind of how we pass the torch againwe don't overreact to week one although
(26:57):
we we we kind of have our sights seton the uh the nfc south meanwhile an
exciting thursday night football gameto say the least Nick Ferguson, I'll be
back with you to break down week two.
It's a pleasure as always, atNickFerguson underscore twenty-five.
More film breakdown, notjust on the Atlanta Falcons.
It could be your team.
It's his Denver Broncos.
(27:18):
Make sure you catch us for a fantasyfootball evening every Friday.
I think that's probably the timewhere we break down some rookie
quarterback tape, including one Bo Nix.
Nick Ferguson, let's get on out of here.
What do you have to say to the people?
Hey, man, stop overreacting.
It's week one.
It's not like it's week fifteen of yourfantasy football team or week seventeen.
(27:42):
It's just week one.
Things are not as though they seem.
Some of our losers mayend up being victors.
And some of those week onewinners, well, they could
disappoint later on in the season.
Well, fantasy for week seventeen, Nick.
Championship.
We are those guys.
We hope to be your guys bringingyou the National Football League.
Week one is completely wrapped up.
Nick Ferguson joining me on aThursday as we count down week
two already getting underway.
I can just see us now.
My goodness, the seasonis flying by, Nick.
It's week two.
Oh, no, it's week four.
Oh, no, it's the playoff.
(00:32):
That's just how things work.
But in this fast and crazyworld, Nick, let's take a stop
and say, what up to the people?
What's happening, Nick?
Everything is going well, man.
But you know what?
You're absolutely right.
It was only week one.
Now we're rolling into week two.
And you know how it's said in the NFL.
Those first four weeks of the season,that first quarter, is so vital because
(00:55):
you have to make sure that you're winningmost of your first four games, because
even though the season is seventeenweeks, if you don't start fast to me, your
season is over, which is which is wild.
But I understand because inbasketball, hockey and baseball, you
can lose your first twenty, thirtygames and still be in the mix.
(01:17):
But it's only in the NFL whereyou lose maybe the first four
games that your your possibilitiesof the playoffs But it's great.
It's week two, and it's really exciting.
So, again, we just went through week one.
The last time you heard from us,we were getting ready for the
Chiefs to defend their back-to-backSuper Bowl championships.
(01:39):
And it's funny because of all of weekone, the best games that we got were
probably those Thursday and Fridayprimetime games in their designated slot.
throwing the Lions and Rams forSunday night football as well.
And we'll get into this a littledeeper, I think, with the fantasy
football, Nick, when we touch on that.
But overall, week one numbers acrossthe National Football League down in
(02:04):
terms of overall passing yardage andtouchdowns and points on the scoreboard.
This is a reflection of youngquarterbacks, lack of preseason play time.
Look, I'm not going to ask you to pinpointone thing, but is this different from the
(02:25):
NFL that you've been studying years past?
Because we're talking about one of thelowest offensive production outputs
since the two thousand seven season.
I think it was.
Yeah, this is what's happening, Alex,is that there's balance being brought
to the force, so to say, because theleague and everyone else is promoted
(02:46):
this league as a passing league.
It's all about the quarterbacks.
And I know people criticize Jay Daniels,Caleb Williams, Drake May, and even Bo
Nix here in Denver and say, well, thoserookie quarterbacks didn't do that well.
But I would say also thoseveteran quarterbacks didn't do
or didn't fare well themselves.
(03:07):
So what we're seeing is that thedefense and the personnel is now
starting to catch up with the offense.
It's almost like the first couple of weeksof training camp, the defense normally
dominates the offense until the offenseis able to input some of the play pass
schemes and they go play action andthings started to balance themselves off.
But for me, I'll say this, from week one,the thing that I got out of week one was
(03:31):
that, It's going to be a lot of scoring.
And the scoring is not going tolook the same that it's looked
in the past because you think ofwhat Boswell did with the Falcons.
I mean, the Steelers won that gamedoing the two things that they do well.
And they've been running isrun the ball and play defense.
And Boswell kicked withlike six field goals.
(03:51):
That's right.
Three from fifty plus.
Yes, it's kind of crazy.
But for me, as being a defensiveguy, I don't know about you.
I don't like all that offense.
I don't like that high score.
And I'm like, forty five, forty one games.
No, I like baseball scores.
Right.
I like those nine, six games.
I know it doesn't move theneedle as far as fantasy football
and the level of excitement.
(04:12):
But defense wins championships, man.
And I love watching defense play.
Well, you make the comparison tobaseball and it definitely reminds me
again, this is more of a labor problemwhere they have so many premier stars
that are still free agents as theystart spring training and, you know,
pitchers kind of get into a grooveand the rotation sort of sets itself.
So it all is harder for pitchers inbaseball to get going at the early part
(04:37):
of the season compared to, you know, oncethey get some more routine built into
their schedules, because you go throughan entire off season and, and much like
in the National Football League, now youstart with preparing yourself and your
body for Sundays and understanding thatyou don't want to show anything in the
(04:57):
preseason, especially the preseason games.
So maybe I'm just...
You're right.
I'm on the other side of the coin.
I'm not advocating forscoring and for points.
But at the same time, Nick, ifthese teams are going to participate
in joint practices and then giveus nothing in the preseason,
(05:19):
I don't really see the difference here.
They have to be vanilla.
They have to hide something from us.
all just for this weekone matchup, as you said.
These games do matter in a seven-teamgame season, and many of these
offenses came out here and laid an egg.
It doesn't make sense to me.
Well, okay.
Let me help you make it make sense.
(05:41):
Okay.
Let's use the example of, let'ssay, the Cincinnati Bengals, right?
Because nobody thought the NewEngland Patriots would beat them.
Nope.
You talk about a defensive matchup.
Luana Marino's defense lost keypieces to that defensive line that
we talked about, the Houston Texansand others reaping the benefits.
(06:01):
They couldn't stop the run,but the offense couldn't put
up more than ten points either.
So what does the rubbermeet the road here?
Well, it is really simple when we lookat it because, I mean, The first week of
the season, as though it was last yearand the year before, what it resembles
is the fourth week in the preseason.
(06:22):
That's exactly what it is, right?
We coined it as, hey, it is the openingseason of the twenty twenty fourth season.
But from the productionstandpoint, we're not getting that.
We're not getting a lot of style points.
We're not getting a lot of creativity.
Because guys are still and coaches arestill working through the nuances of
their scheme because a lot of these guysdidn't play in that third preseason game.
(06:47):
And take it back.
And I don't know the numbers to exact,but I would like to think when we
was back in the old NFL, when I wasplaying, My get off the lawn types.
There you go.
But there was four preseason games.
And in that third preseason game,that was a warm up to the first
start of the game of the season.
(07:07):
The dress rehearsal.
Would play three quarters becausethey needed to come out of the
half to get guys acclimated towhat that is going to look like.
And I don't know about you, but watchingsome of these games, there are a lot
of guys with their hands on theirhips and on their knees sucking air.
That tells you right therethe conditioning isn't there.
So you can't get into an elaborateplay calling system from a coordinator
(07:31):
when your guys are sucking wind.
Part of that is the CBA, right?
The players advocated to haveless practice time and off-season
workouts and participation.
That's a piece of it.
The other piece of it is there arecoaches that this is how they operate.
They will take the risk of theirplayers getting injured in practice
(07:51):
and joint practices where they goup against other teams, but they
do not play preseason games, right?
That's been a staple of theLos Angeles Rams, for example.
and plenty of other teams likethe Atlanta Falcons as well.
Now that that McVeigh tree and thatShanahan tree is about two-thirds
of the National Football League.
At the same time, though, and again,you can't use them as the rule.
(08:17):
They are just the exception.
The Kansas City Chiefs are stillputting Patrick Mahomes out there
for a dozen plays just becauseI think more than anything else,
they could tell him you need tosit and he'll just flat out refuse.
That's just how he is.
That's how he operates.
Nick, you gave us some very wise wordsof optimism and importance and stressing
(08:43):
the fact that we cannot overreact to weekone around the National Football League.
I'm not going to overreactto my New England Patriots.
We're not going to overreact to...
a number of other games that took placeand upsets and, uh, the, the Panthers and
the giants and the, uh, woeful offensesor, um, you know, just the, the, the,
(09:08):
the sheer lack of passing production.
We're not going to overreactat that same time though.
Nick, do you point to a specific playeror team that you saw in week one that
you are fighting against your will?
I won't overreact.
I won't overreact.
Okay, who are we going to overreact tofor their week one performance, Nick?
Well, you know what?
(09:29):
It's kind of a loaded question becausepart of me wants to overreact based
on how this team and this particularquarterback has been kicked to the side.
And I just don't want to justkind of blow it out of the water.
But, I mean, the first obvious for me,Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints.
They have a new offensive coordinator.
(09:50):
And Clint Kubiak, who I happen to know.
And watching Derek Carr in thatgame, and albeit they're playing
against the Carolina Panthers, right?
So you hope that you can get them sevenweeks out of the season, but you can't.
But they were just doing defensivethings and offensive things that
we haven't seen Carr and the Saintsoffense do over the past two seasons.
(10:13):
But they were spectacularagainst the Carolina Panthers.
And oh, by the way, Thathappens to be a divisional game.
And when you look at the NFC South, you'resaying, okay, well, list out all the
great teams in that particular division.
And I thought that Kirk Cousins wasjust going to run roughshod over
(10:33):
that division, but he didn't faretoo well in his showing as Atlanta
quarterback throwing interceptions.
But right now, and it's crazy forme to say, it looks like Derek
Carr and Dennis Allen are thebells of the ball in the NFC South.
They scored on their first,oh, Lord, nine possessions.
(10:56):
I'm counting the box score right here.
One, two, three, four, five, six, seven,eight, nine possessions they score.
And all of a sudden it'sthirty to three at the half.
The influence of Clint Kubiak,obviously playing for Gary
Kubiak, yourself, his father.
kind of open things up for this offense.
(11:17):
You know, we see the deepshots with Rashid Shahid.
You know, they put up, I believeit was a total of three hundred
and seventy nine yards of offense.
Chris Olave not really factoring into it,but they're spreading the football around.
They have a balanced attack withAlvin Kamara and Jamal Williams
(11:39):
combining for over twenty five carries.
This is really interesting for meto follow because it was a Saints
team that based on Derek Carr's playhistory, they don't take too many risks.
He avoids limiting turnovers.
He's a guy to throw it away on thirddown and just bring out the punt
(11:59):
team because he's afraid of turningthe ball over, which I can certainly
understand to a certain extent.
But the efficiency that they played withcomes down to Clint Kubiak's offense
and the lack of Ability, production,success for that Panthers defensive side
of the football, knowing that their bestplayer, Derrick Brown, was placed on IR.
(12:23):
So now teams are just going tobe able to run even more all
over this woeful defense, whichis just totally disappointing.
I don't want to overreact to the NewOrleans Saints either, but you certainly
can't laugh at forty seven pointsregardless of who their opponent is.
Now that they've got the Cowboys, theEagles, and then a divisional matchup
(12:43):
against the Falcons before they goto Kansas City in primetime, we're
going to find out pretty quickly inthe first month what kind of football
team the New Orleans Saints is.
I'm going to overreact.
I'm not even pausing for a moment here.
I'm just blowing rightthrough your advice, Nick.
The Atlanta Falcons are in deep trouble.
I mean, from what I saw against thosePittsburgh Steelers, and you were
(13:06):
alluding to it with Kirk Cousins'play, a quarterback that thrived under
play action and under center offense.
This coming from ESPN stats and info,the Falcons were in pistol or shotgun,
ninety six percent of their snaps,zero design runs out of shotgun,
and they ran the ball on eighty onepercent of their snaps out of pistol.
(13:30):
So, Nick, first of all, they'renot doing what Kirk Cousins was
successful with in Minnesota.
Second of all, They are becomingtransparent with when they line up
in one formation, they're passing.
When they're lining up in theother formation, they're running.
This Achilles injury, which was at alater point in the season than Aaron
(13:52):
Rodgers, obviously, Kirk played morethan four snaps last year, but the
Atlanta Falcons took a risk on a playerwho played his best football in the
span of six games coming off of anincredible Incredibly significant injury.
And out of the gates, you know, we'reseeing a hobbled Kirk Cousins who
(14:15):
took one snap under center, didn'tattempt to pass over twenty yards
and had one of the worst turnoverworthy throw rates in all of week one.
So my question to you is, how doI not overreact knowing that Kirk
Cousins was known for one thing?
The Falcons bring him in.
And to start the year,they do the opposite.
(14:36):
This Achilles injury is clearly lingering.
Well, the reason I say that don'toverreact is because watching the Falcons
offense, they did some real good things.
And the problem was that theydidn't go back to those things
because the Pittsburgh Steelersdefense gave them opportunity.
(14:57):
Now, in critical situations, itseemed as though maybe the coaching
staff and even the players themselvesfrom execution standpoint, they
couldn't understand, you know what?
When you look at the PittsburghSteelers, it's one guy on that
defense that is a game wrecker.
And you always want to know where T.J.
Watt is located.
It seemed as though they didn't do a goodjob of it, so they were not effective.
(15:19):
Yeah, Caleb McGarry losing prettymuch every one-on-one matchup,
not giving him the help he needed.
Exactly.
So that goes back to the coaching,knowing who you're facing from the
scouting report to know I might needto chip him with a running back.
I might need to chip him bymotioning a tight end over.
And if I don't motion the tightend over, actually use orbit a jet
(15:40):
motion to create opportunities.
That's a video I put up on social media.
You can follow me at NickFerguson underscore twenty five.
Yeah, I wanted I wanted to breakthis down because I saw it.
I retweeted it and.
We saw a very productive runfrom the pistol formation
that we were talking about.
The Steelers at this point shouldknow that they're running, and
how are they so successful thatyou detailed on social, Nick?
(16:03):
Well, there were so many opportunitiesthat the Falcons actually rolled
out that could have opened upopportunities throughout the game.
One, I know it's ill-advised.
Well, let's not be in a pistolformation because now they're
putting your quarterback and yourrunning back in a deeper set.
But they use orbit motion, using awide receiver out of the backfield
(16:25):
to get one of the linebackersoutside the box to create.
Yeah, Nick Herbig over-pursued.
Right.
And the outside linebacker got upfieldbecause when Kirk Cousins hand the
ball off, which you're supposed to doevery time you hand the ball off as
a quarterback, you go through certainmotions to set up other plays later on.
So that linebacker from thePittsburgh Steelers, he's thinking,
(16:47):
OK, they're going to run a boot.
But they didn't by himgetting so far upfield.
it left somewhat of like a canvas.
That right side, the properword would be like a chasm.
That's the proper word.
Because Algier kind of got it by fouror five yards to his left side, but the
(17:11):
right side was ready for the taking.
And once again, since you get thatdefender – Coming up the field
so hard, I'm thinking maybe ZachRobinson might have called a boot
play just to kind of test themagain because those plays were open.
And the problem was they neverreally developed those plays.
(17:31):
They never used those plays thatmight have been negative plays as an
advantage because the Steelers defense,man, they were trying to penetrate.
They were trying to get upfield,and sometimes it's the difference
between winning and losing.
And let's not forget, this is ZachRobinson's first opportunity as an OC.
So we can say that Kirk Cousins failedin his opening showing as a quarterback.
(17:56):
No, he didn't reallyblow anyone's doors off.
But as a first-time OC, well,what did you really get?
And I don't think they used B.
John Robinson.
in a proper way so that's why I would sayuh I'm not going to overreact on this on
this loss because we've seen what kirkcousins can do in the past uh and we
know that that offense for the atlantafalcons they do have talent they just
(18:20):
didn't exploit it and use it againstthe steelers well that's my concern and
why I'm overreacting is because kirkcousins you know mentally uh is sharp
but If the Achilles is clearly still anissue, he can't push the ball downfield.
He can't handle the ball.
They're taking him out of situationswhere he has to be on the move,
either under center, which affectsall facets of the running game.
(18:43):
This is just like how theCincinnati Bengals started.
when Joe burrow had that calf issuecoming into the season, they were just
beyond predictable with the way thatthey lined up and the personnel that
they had on the field, they were eithergoing to run or they're going to pass.
And clearly they had, you know, he had anadditional unrelated setback, but I just
worry that for this early part of theseason and for how many people were all
(19:05):
in on this Atlanta Falcons team, they havea lot of work to do with the first, with
the first time play caller and offensivecoordinator and, Raheem Morris back in
as the head coach and Kirk Cousins, who'son a new team dealing with new weapons.
And, you know, I guess in themeantime, the Steelers defense, while
they're going to be aggressive andover pursue those rush lanes to try
(19:25):
to go after the quarterback, I'llbring this up in further detail.
you know, former Steeler Ray RayMcLeod gets his revenge game.
The least likely person you'dexpect to lead the Falcons receiving
core because the Steelers aregoing to that stuff up from slow
receivers pretty much all season.
Exciting to see Joey Porter able tostick on top receivers doing a great
(19:49):
job holding Drake one to two catchesfor fifteen yards on only three targets.
But Nick, we're not going topanic about Drake London just yet.
We may do that a little bit onthe Fantasy Football Podcast.
But again, we're not goingto overreact from week one.
That's not what we are here to do.
One more thing on this game.
(20:11):
The fact that right now, whatyou're saying, it is correct.
And this is kind of a problem.
That is reared his ugly face in the NFL.
So long gone are the days of yourtraditional dropback quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers may be like theonly guy remaining of that group.
I mean, besides her cousins.
(20:32):
So at some point, if you're ZachRobinson and you're Raheem Morris,
you still have to look at it andsay, you have a very talented team.
This is the reason why they wentout and drafted Michael Penix.
And I know some may say,it's early to call for Penix.
But once again, you havea very talented roster.
And I know one thing that makesit a headache for any defense,
(20:55):
I don't care how talented youare, it's a mobile quarterback.
And granted, Penis is not that muchmore mobile than Kirk Cousins, but
he's going to give Zach Robinson anopportunity to do a couple of things
that would threaten the defense, thatwould open up some things, both in
the running and in the passing game.
Nick, before we split, it is Thursday.
(21:18):
We've got, you know, it's not goingto compete with the Chiefs and
the Ravens in an AFC Championshiprematch, but that's opening night.
We still have a division battlebetween the Bills and the
Dolphins, two of the prohibitedfavorites there in the AFC East.
All AFC East teams, other than theJets, by the way, want to know.
(21:39):
Just going to give myselfa pat on the back for that.
But what I thought was interestingwith Buffalo, in their victory.
I'll start with them and thenI'll let you cover your, your,
your native Miami dolphins.
The bills were interesting to me becauseit was really a tale of two halves, right?
They get down.
Seventeen to three to the Cardinals.
(22:01):
The defense allows three straightscoring drives for the Cardinals.
I think it had been the first timein nearly a decade or even fifteen
years that the Cardinals had threestraight scoring possessions on
their opening drive in week one.
Meanwhile, the Bills fumbled a footballafter Josh Allen was strip sacked.
(22:26):
They settled for three on a drive thatthey get all the way down to the four-yard
line, and then penalties set them back.
Then in the second half, they quicklytake over Josh Allen plays hero ball.
He finishes with a lot of deepthrows, a couple rushing touchdowns.
(22:47):
So it's kind of live and die bywhat Josh Allen is going to be
able to do on the football field,which I think most people, that's a
proposition they're willing to take.
But I'd be remiss.
This is where I'm going to fitin our kickoff return discussion,
Nick, because on the openingkick, rookie Brandon Cognton had a
(23:09):
three-yard return for the Cardinals.
against the Cardinals.
And after that point, theydecided to just kick the ball
out the back of the end zone.
And the Bills are now taking the ballout from the thirty instead of the
twenty like we'd seen in years past.
You also have the first returntouchdown for a TD from DJ Dallas
for the Cardinals side of things.
I think it's sort of interesting thatthe kicking rules, while not necessarily
(23:33):
present, you see the value propositionthe Cardinals went through to say, well,
This guy is dangerous, and we're notcalling him Devin Hester, but in many
ways, like Devin Hester, you say, okay,we'll deal with allowing them to take
the ball out at the thirty rather thantry to see if we can pin the Bills back.
So the Bills, to me, are a big rollercoaster, but I do have more concerns for
(23:58):
the defensive side of things than I doon the offensive side of the football.
I guess, Nick, as we sort of moveto the Miami Dolphins side of
things, who are banged up in theirown right, We already know Raheem
Mostert ruled out for this game.
I just, you know, between these twoAFC East powers, who has the advantage
(24:19):
in your eyes and in particular thatDolphins offense that, you know,
obviously the big splash play isa huge component to what they do.
Well, I give the advantage to theMiami Dolphins and Mike McDaniels.
And that's not because I think JoeBrady does do a great job up in Buffalo.
I just look at the weaponsthat the Miami Dolphins have.
(24:45):
Most are not possibly not going toplay, but You still have A-Chain.
You still have Waddle.
You still have Tyreek Hill.
And those guys are always a threat.
And you said it.
I mean, you open up with the ideathat Buffalo and Buffalo was at home.
They were down seventeen three.
And if it wasn't for a hero ball.
(25:06):
by Josh Allen, who I think he's goingto change everyone's opinion of what
type of quarterback he is becausehe doesn't have a lot of weapons.
He's going to do a lot of hero ball.
But it was his efforts that prettymuch got them back into the mix.
And then I'll look at the fact that,you know, the Miami Dolphins were
in kind of a – a tug of war within-state rival Trevor Lawrence and the
(25:29):
Jacksonville Jaguars, but they were ableto pull it off with a late field goal.
So to me, I've always looked at the MiamiDolphins as a battle-tested team, and
knowing as though Mike McDaniels is likeKyle Shanahan, it's always thinking of
what can we do next as an evolution to ourgame, and just looking at The depletion of
(25:50):
Buffalo on both sides of the ball, to me,Miami gets the nod on this one for sure.
And I would be surprised ifthey did not win it outright.
That's fair.
The Dolphins are the home favorites.
They get two and a half point spread.
So we assume that theycan get the job done.
Just a quick turnaround.
(26:10):
And you mentioned HN, thegame time decision, and a huge
component of that offense.
But You know, as that zone blocking schemedoes, as we saw with Kyle Shan, the forty
niners, they'll dust off Jeff Wilson.
We'll assume that the Dolphinscan still run the football
better than most other teams can.
Yeah, just the bills don'tnecessarily have the back end pieces.
(26:33):
Both safeties moving on, includingJordan Poyer from Buffalo now in Miami.
You can expect Tyreek Hill, JalenWaddle to take things off the top.
uh for the dolphins offense as they doin typical fashion so nick that is that
is kind of how we pass the torch againwe don't overreact to week one although
(26:57):
we we we kind of have our sights seton the uh the nfc south meanwhile an
exciting thursday night football gameto say the least Nick Ferguson, I'll be
back with you to break down week two.
It's a pleasure as always, atNickFerguson underscore twenty-five.
More film breakdown, notjust on the Atlanta Falcons.
It could be your team.
It's his Denver Broncos.
(27:18):
Make sure you catch us for a fantasyfootball evening every Friday.
I think that's probably the timewhere we break down some rookie
quarterback tape, including one Bo Nix.
Nick Ferguson, let's get on out of here.
What do you have to say to the people?
Hey, man, stop overreacting.
It's week one.
It's not like it's week fifteen of yourfantasy football team or week seventeen.
(27:42):
It's just week one.
Things are not as though they seem.
Some of our losers mayend up being victors.
And some of those week onewinners, well, they could
disappoint later on in the season.
Well, fantasy for week seventeen, Nick.
Championship.
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