September 14, 2024 • 25 mins
Join hosts Nick Ferguson and Alex Hardy as they kick off Fantasy Friday with a deep dive into the trends and surprises from Week 1 of the NFL season. Nick, a former ten-year NFL safety, and Alex, a seasoned fantasy football enthusiast, explore the delicate balance between overreacting and making calculated risks in your fantasy football lineup. They discuss the unexpected performances, the impact of injuries, and strategies to stay ahead of the curve. Whether you're disappointed with your Week 1 results or looking for insights on key matchups, this episode is packed with valuable tips to help you dominate Week 2.
00:00 Introduction and Week 1 Overview
02:15 Nick Ferguson's Week 1 Fantasy Recap
05:30 Analyzing the Decline in Passing Yards
09:45 Drafting Wide Receivers vs. Running Backs
13:20 The Impact of Injuries on Fantasy Lineups
18:45 Defensive Matchups and Streaming Options
23:50 Evaluating Running Back Performances
29:10 Tight End Production and Patience
34:00 Rookie Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers
40:15 Closing Thoughts and Week 2 Projections
Fantasy Football, NFL, Week 1 Reactions, Week 2 Projections, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Injuries, Defensive Matchups, Tight Ends, Rookie Quarterbacks, Streaming Options, Fantasy Strategy, Player Analysis, NFL Insights
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:10):
We are back.
We are those guys.
It is a fantasy Fridayhere on the program.
Uh, there we go.
There's our official branding.
No better day than Friday, I think,Nick, because you're coming off
the start of the new football week.
You've already done yourwaiver wire pickups.
You're scrambling to see who to start,who to sit, those types of things.
(00:31):
That's not necessarily the angle thatwe're coming at, but Nick Ferguson,
former 10 year NFL safety, here with me.
I'm noticing some certaintrends from week one.
Our theme for the Those Guys NFL showIs to not overreact to week one, but
I think in certain ways with fantasyfootball, you take calculated risks.
(00:51):
If you overreact to a certain extent,you can catch on certain trends, be ahead
of the curve, And if you're wrong, youjust dump that player anyway and you move
on to the next thing to overreact to.
I think the perfect example would be goingin on Jordan Mason before understanding
the full scope of the ChristianMcCaffrey injury throughout the summer.
(01:13):
So, Nick Ferguson.
What's going on my man?
How'd you fare for fantasyfootball week one in the books?
Hey man, it's week one.
I didn't really want to overreact andwhat I'm telling you is, I did not win.
Oh no.
Yeah man, there were a couple ofplayers who definitely underperformed,
but here's the upside to it.
Because you always have to lookat the bright side and the silver
(01:35):
lining of every dark cloud.
Yes,
you're a glass half full guy.
Yeah, it's only week one, andthe same thing happened to
me last year, and guess what?
I won the entire league!
That's why Nick Ferguson is hereheadlining the fantasy football show.
He is a champion, where it countsmost, not a Super Bowl champion,
(01:55):
but a fantasy football championship.
I think something everyone wouldstrive for, comparative to what
you can do on the actual gridiron.
Disappointed with yourweek one performance, Nick.
I'm sure you're not the only one.
Uh, this week one opening, teams averaged188 net passing yards, the fewest
in any week since week 15 in 2007.
(02:20):
Nick Ferguson, I believe a memberof the Houston Texans at the time.
Uh, we, we saw that this was almost 30percent less passing yardage from week
one, five years ago, where teams averagednorth of 260 yards in that week one.
(02:40):
We had two, 300 yard passers, TuaTungavailoa and Matthew Stafford.
Meanwhile, more than half the league.
Under 200 passing yards.
Uh, so Nick, we'retalking about an all time.
Like decades in the making, lack ofproduction in the passing offenses.
(03:01):
We sort of touched on this brieflyin the main football show, which
you can grab in the same podcast.
You can get your podcaston YouTube as well.
My thought process here, Nick, iswe saw some 2007 offense, Nick.
Uh, we had nearly, you know,we had more 100 yard rushers
(03:22):
than we've had in recent years.
Um, were we wrong to be draftingall these receivers early?
Banking on safe, stable productionfrom the elite guys that we were hoping
for in the first couple of rounds?
Or is this just sort of.
An extension of the preseason like youhad alluded to on our previous show.
It's a, it's a microcosmof several things.
(03:44):
Uh, extension of the preseason isone, but also the defensive units.
playing their best ball in week one.
Now, obviously that's subject tochange later on as the season goes on.
But for me, see, I didn't start out mydraft taking a lot of wide receivers.
That's true.
You went
heavy, you went heavywith the running backs.
(04:05):
And Bijon and Kyron bothhad modest, good production.
Well, modest production, but notexactly to what it was last season.
But the idea is that, you know, forme, my theory was select running
backs that I realized that in theoffensive schemes that they're operating
from, they're going to be involvedin both passing and running, so the
(04:26):
volume should definitely be there.
But since week one, not all thatvolume was there, but a lot of teams
were leaning on their run game.
Just think about the Houston Texans, aguy I was able to pick up with Joe Mixon.
I mean, he, he did a lot of damage and alot of fantasy owners were disappointed
that, hey, Christian McCaffrey didn't playbecause it was a calf, Achilles injury,
(04:48):
but Jordan Mason racked up 146 yards.
Who saw that coming?
If you saw that coming, you knewthe ending of the usual suspects
and no one knew the ending of that.
So Jordan Mason ends up beingKaisa Soze in fantasy football.
Well, listen, this is a Shanahan thing.
(05:11):
We've got, we've gone over that anumber of times on the podcast and your
connection to the family playing forMike, you know, before we have Jordan
Mason, there's Alfred Morris beforethere's Alfred Morris, there's what?
Ruben drones before there's Ruben.
I mean, this is just, thisis what the offense does, but
what I think is interesting andwhat we weren't necessarily.
(05:32):
Um, you know, we were kind oftaking blindly and we can throw
the LA Rams into this as well.
The injury reports throughout themonth of August, they don't matter.
You know, Kyle Shanahanand the 49ers offense were.
Telling us that it's a calf,um, that it's just a strain.
He was limited in practice.
Meanwhile, the LA Rams puking Akua's knee.
(05:54):
It's a, a, a bursa sack.
It's, it's, it's, it's aminor acute rare knee injury.
Uh, For all we know, it was always anAchilles for McCaffrey and it was always
a PCL for Puca, but there's no requirementfor these teams to fully disclose these
things to not only opposing teams, but totheir fans and fantasy football players.
(06:15):
So it's an adjustment, you know,correct me if I'm wrong, but last
year, I took the discount on CooperCupp, thinking that his, his, uh, his
injuries coming into the season wouldclear up after a couple of weeks.
Turned out there was asetback and they didn't.
And then, This year, I dropped Puka Nakua,thinking that it's a minor injury, and
(06:35):
there's a setback that lands him on IR inhis first half of football this season.
So, uh, It's difficult to track, youknow, not only the lack of production
or predict it, Kaisers so say, butit's also teams aren't necessarily
held to the same standards in terms ofdocumentary, documenting and reporting
(06:56):
the injuries that we will now see asthey are fully scrutinized throughout
the course of the regular season, Nick.
Yeah, but let's be totally honest.
I mean, your guy, Bill Belichick madeit infamous and he was great at doing
this, Playing the waiver wire andsaying, okay, well, a guy may play,
he may not play, never really leadingon to the severity of the injury.
(07:19):
And sometimes putting healthy guys on theinjury report just to throw teams off.
So most coaches say, look,we're coaching for our team.
We can get two nickels about thefantasy owners and trying to make
sure that they set their rosters.
So yes, could there be some truthabout what happened with Puka?
Or Kristen McCaffrey.
Absolutely, but those coaches, like,we don't have to acquiesce to you fans.
(07:43):
We don't care.
We're trying, we're in thebusiness of cloak and dagger.
We want to keep things assecret as we can, but we see
that those two players out.
But, it opens up an opportunityfor other players on said roster.
Jordan Mason took advantage of it againstRobert Salah in the New York Jets.
The matter of the fact was trying tofigure out, well, who's going to be that
(08:04):
new player of this week and week two.
So, part of predicting that, right,we don't know the injuries, we don't
know, there's so many variables.
Nick, from your experience, whenyou see how certain defenses play,
not just with week one, but we seecertain things that we saw a year ago.
For example, one of the, uh, the only teamthat had four passing touchdowns, Baker
(08:28):
Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, uh,took advantage of a Washington commander's
defense that was among the worst.
Defending the pass last year.
And, and we're seeing that again.
So are we just saying that anyteam that's playing against the
commanders is an automatic start?
Does that mean that with the New Yorkgiants coming down to our nation's
(08:49):
capital, uh, Daniel Jones and Malikneighbors are all in play now, all of a
sudden compared to these six points thatwe just saw them put up against Minnesota.
I mean, you put the commanders in there.
I asked because you mentionedRobert Sala and the jets, right?
This is a buck 50.
That Jordan Mason, uh,has yards from scrimmage.
Um, Against a Jets defense that'sjust poorly coached from Robert Sala.
(09:14):
So, I mean, do you hang your hat on theteams that just cannot stop the run?
That's, you know, uh, the Jets, theBengals, um, and those that they
can't defend the pass that was theEagles, the commanders, uh, and just,
again, Anytime your players playthe Panthers, you have to play them.
Well, for me, it's about matchups of theweek and they change from week to week.
(09:39):
It's, I'll start with Carolina thatyou mentioned because the Carolina
Panthers, they didn't play well on theroad against Derrick Carr and the Saints.
And we saw what happened there.
And the charges who theyfaced this week beat up on the
Raiders and Gardner Minshew.
So if you are looking to stream a defense.
To me, you want to go and stream theChargers against Carolina because
(10:02):
that seems like it's an easy win.
It's almost like being a fifthgrader, going out to the sandbox
and just taking some kids juice box.
That's an easy victory, right?
That's kind of what you look at.
So I'd play the, I'd play the Chargerslast week against the Raiders because
I wasn't very optimistic with GardnerMinshew and that, that turned out
fine, but that also extends to J.
(10:23):
K.
Dobbins, you know, who's owned,you know, prior, you know, he
was owned in about 50, 60%.
Of Yahoo leagues.
And if he was, if he was a free agent,he was the top waiver priority because
he had had broken those two big runs.
He had had the majority of thebackfield work for the chargers.
I think it was only 10 carries,but still manage 133 yards.
And now he goes up againsta Panthers defense that.
(10:47):
Just lost Derrick Brown for the year.
So, look, J.
K.
Dobbins was either stashed on the endof your bench, one of your later picks,
or you just picked him up off waivers.
For your team, Nick, you're probablynot going to bench one of Joe Mixon,
Kyron Williams, or Bijon Robinson.
But, I mean, J.
K.
Dobbins is, is this, this is kindof the example I was searching for.
(11:10):
Is a guy who handled 10 rushes, buthad very good production off of it.
I'll be it off of two long runs.
Is he an automatic start, you know,a, a, a running back one, you know,
a top 12, maybe top 15 runningback just for the fact alone that
he's playing the Carolina Panthers.
Yes,
(11:31):
yes.
And yes, again, I live in aworld of, okay, if a guy does
well, and he was, uh, I guess.
Unexpected to do as wellas he did in the game.
To me, I want to give it another weekto see if he's able to produce the same
level of production in the week before.
But knowing as though you're facingagainst the Carolina Panthers, yes.
(11:55):
And it's just like, if you, whateverwide receiver, whatever defense,
whatever you have facing theCarolina Panthers, you start all of
them this week until Dave Canelas.
And his quarterback, Bryce Young,shows you anything different.
But J.
K.
Dobbins was definitelyone of those players.
And immediately when I saw him breakoff the first run, I was trying to put
(12:19):
a waiver claim into him right away.
But there was someoneelse who was a priority.
over me so they were able to secure him.
But this is the great thing aboutthe season and fantasy football.
Uh, as I see it, because somepeople are in dynasty leagues
where you or keeper leagues whereyou just stuck with your players.
(12:40):
I'm not in those types of league.
Right.
Yeah.
Yes.
And I'm always watching games.
Just to see which player that I didn'tanticipate that would somewhat do
something where I say, you know what,I'm projecting weeks from now, that
player is going to be a go to player.
Maybe I should add him to my roster.
I'm constantly looking forplayers to, to add to my roster,
(13:02):
but great production by J.
K.
Dobbins, let's see if he can duplicatethat again against the Panthers.
So I, I want to use that as an example.
And I said this at the top of the show.
You can go somewhere else for,you know, answer your start, sit
questions, all this and that.
I just sort of want to broaden theconversation around fantasy football and
(13:24):
leverage your experience, Nick, when itcomes to roster and lineup decisions.
So we'll, we'll take the examplesof the two running backs.
We've spent the most time on right.
J K Dobbin road, Carolina.
Uh, Jordan Mason against the Vikings.
I'm not saying, would youprioritize one over the other.
I guess what I'm asking for is,when you have that type of decision,
(13:45):
if it's Mason versus Dobbins, orif it's any running back that you
drafted outside of the top 15, right?
You didn't draft JonathanTaylor and sit him on the bench.
You didn't draft, uh, uh, uh, uh, B.
John Robinson to havehim sit on the bench.
I understand that.
But when you look at matchups, when youlook at how much opportunity they had,
(14:06):
their, their success, their productionfrom the previous game, their, their
previous track record going years back,how, you know, what's your chart, your,
your flow, your organizational flow,your chart that says, I'm going to factor
the fact that, well, Jordan Mason hadmore carries, had more rushing yards,
Had, uh, one touchdown compared to J.
(14:26):
K.
Dobbins, who didn't handle the rock asmuch, who didn't have as many yards,
but was, uh, he was more efficient.
Uh, well the Panthers are, youknow, the Vikings have a better
defense than the Panthers do.
But they're still susceptible tothe run because Brian Flores is
all in or out with the pass brush.
I just, you have all of these thingskind of swirling around in your head.
Well, Jim Harbaugh wants to runthe football with the Chargers.
(14:49):
Oh, Kyle Shanahan is going to putthe ball in Brock Purdy's hands.
How do you sort of break down all ofthese variables when it comes to deciding
which running back to go to, maybe thisis a bad example because the answer
is always gonna be Yeah, play the guythat's playing against the Panthers.
I'm just what?
What factors kind of weigh in foryou when it comes to their previous
(15:11):
production, their coaching style, theirpace of play, and the opponent that
they're facing for an upcoming week.
Well, since we're talking aboutrunning backs, I always look at the
defense that they're playing and I askmyself, well, how do they do last week
or season leading up to that point?
As far as yards given up on the ground.
And then I also look at the running backand say, okay, well, is this a tandem
(15:36):
or 300, 300 monster type of backfield?
Because you're thinking about In thecase of Jordan Mason, yeah, you're
playing against the Vikings, and I cantell you, the Vikings have tried so many
ways since Sunday to try to slow downCallum Shanahan in their running attack,
but because they coach their techniqueso well, it makes it really difficult.
(15:57):
And what we don't know, and this is aparticular point, you're saying, okay,
well, if, will Kristen McCaffrey play?
Because you're wondering, okay,how many, how many I guess splits
as far as carries are they'regoing to be, because it's about.
Well, I guess in this example, you know,the reporting, I think this was Adam
Schefter on Monday night and otherssaying that it's unlikely McCaffrey
(16:19):
would play because I would imagine thatif they're going to put them on the
field, he he's going to get all thetouches and then it becomes a no brainer.
You play him.
So I guess in this example, you go with.
Uh, Jordan Mason, and that'sthe other variable, right?
We have more of a track record with J.
K.
Dobbins than Jordan Mason.
At the same time, that alsocarries an injury risk that
Jordan Mason doesn't have.
(16:39):
So all of these things, and Iappreciate you weighing in, Nick,
is, is sort of filtering through.
Understanding, you know, whatit is in sort of prioritizing.
You look to the opposing defense first,you see how they've done previously.
And then it comes down to, uh, theprofile of the player on your roster.
You're trying to, youknow, decide between one.
(16:59):
Or the other, uh, Nick, any otherplayers or thoughts, um, that
you have coming off of week one?
Uh, I'm not going to overreactto Drake London and the Falcons.
I hate that offense, but I'm not tryingto trade away Drake London just yet.
I know that the Falcons are hopefullygoing to get right when Aaron, uh,
Aaron, the, the other guy with theAchilles injury, Kirk Cousins is
(17:21):
feeling more like himself, but.
Who are we not going tooverreact to just yet?
Well, I would, I would lookat the tight end position.
Uh, one, I mean, Dallas got her, he gotyou over seven points in fantasy football,
um, Evan Ingram did not, it just seemedas though Trevor Lawrence found some
(17:45):
different target, distributive ball
too.
So there 10 PPR points, uh, for week one.
And your week one tight endleader for last season, Nick, was
Was it, uh, I think itwas, was it Dallas Garden?
It was Hunter Henry.
(18:05):
So all I'm saying, folks, is let'sbe patient with the position.
Right?
If you went zero, if you went, youknow, zero tight end, if you didn't
reach for one of the elite guysthis year, uh, good, good on you.
If you Are starting MarkAndrews right now, Nick?
I'm, you're not in a full panic, are you?
I think the Chiefs took him away.
(18:26):
Isaiah Likely was the othertop waiver pickup this year.
I, I prefer Dobbins.
Personally, I have the topwaiver claim in one league.
I, I pick Dobbins because itseemed more sustainable to me.
I think if you're going to havea one starter position like
tight end, I want a modest floor.
And Isaiah Likely clearly, clearly showedus his ceiling, but I am not into that.
(18:48):
Ready to get on thatrollercoaster for Titan 1 vs.
Titan 25 next week, depending on howdefenses align with Marc Andrews or not.
Um, I guess with that position, I justlike to see who's out there running
routes, which is why I targetedColby Parkinson a lot in drafts.
Because he was going to run thefull route tree for the Rams,
(19:10):
something he wasn't doing in Seattle.
They gave him money this offseason, andSure enough, it's modest work, you know,
to get four catches in about 40 yards.
That's about as good as you coulddo for that position for week one.
Well, since we're talking about tightends, I think last season a lot of fantasy
owners were upset about the productionof Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts.
(19:34):
I thought, you know, with Zach Robinsoncoming in, and whether it was Penix
or Kirk Cousins, That the numberswere, and the volume would be higher
for a guy like Kyle Pitts, but in thegame against Pittsburgh, where they
should have used him so much to reallystretch that defense, they did not.
And hopefully this is, this isnot, you know, early warning signs
(19:56):
that we're going to have a secondyear of Kyle Pitts underachieving.
Hopefully that's not the case.
I think it's year three now,after his rookie season where
he recorded a thousand yards.
It'd be three years ina row underachieving.
But again, we're not going to overreact.
Nick, before we split, I'd be remissif I didn't mention we talked about
(20:19):
the lack of quarterback production.
And of course that was maybe besthighlighted by a number of the young
quarterbacks, you know, that includedsecond year guys like Will Levis, uh,
and sixth year guys like Daniel Jones,but the three rookie quarterbacks, Jaden
Daniels, Beau Nix, Caleb Williams, thethree of them combining for 415 passing
yards, you know, You know, Nick's kindof bailed out some of their fantasy
(20:43):
production with the use of their legs.
Um, but Nick, before we split, I just, Igotta ask that, that Nick's debut, that
Caleb Williams debut, I'm gonna honein on those two in particular and maybe
have you lean toward your Denver Broncos.
But, I mean, we're not calling thisdraft class a bust now, are we?
After we hailed them as one of thebest that we've seen since 2003 or,
(21:07):
you know, something along those lines.
Hopefully not.
Well, I'm not calling them,uh, any of them a bust because
I understand how this works.
That's not to say that people herein Denver, people, those people
being certain media members and moreimportantly, certain members of the
fan base, because there's a level ofexcitement that was built up for Bo.
(21:31):
Bo did not play in thelast preseason game.
Uh, and I let you know my details on that.
So.
This is not one of those situations whereyou don't need the panning and after
week one, you're calling the guy a buzz.
To me, it says a lot about theindividuals making those statements
and their ability to be patient,but their football IQ, because a
lot of rookie players, especiallya quarterback, don't perform well.
(21:55):
in week one.
Rarely do we see a guy who's draftednumber one overall or in the top 10
win their first game and especiallyBo playing in Seattle on the road.
No, there were a bunch of homershere, uh, with the, the, the
networks and the radio stations.
Oh, go Broncos.
(22:16):
And they only did that tokind of tear the kid down.
And I knew it was going tobe a very tall task for him.
Each one of those quarterbacks get achance to bounce back Caleb Williams.
First overall pick.
Say whatever you want tosay about his performance.
Guess what?
He emerged victorious.
Which proves that quarterbacks are notthe only thing that's important when it
(22:39):
comes to determining wins and losses.
You know, this is revisionist history too,because in my mind I'm thinking, well, C.
J.
Stroud, clearly the exception of therule, his week one outing against
the Baltimore Ravens, the offensescored nine points, so no touchdowns.
Uh, 242 passing yards,no touchdowns, no picks.
So, again, we even haveto be patient with C.
(23:00):
J.
Stroud for how good that he is.
But I guess, because this is theFantasy Friday, Nick, Washington's
pass catchers, the wide receivers,combine for 7 catches for 45 yards.
Chicago's pass catchers, Denver'spass catchers, Washington's, until
we see it with these rookies, Areyou leaning towards benching the
(23:21):
likes of DJ Moore, Roma Doonzay,Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton?
Where are you kind of at, or areyou just willing to take the lumps
as these rookies kind of navigate?
You know, their professional careers.
Look, man, if you ever playedwith a wide receiver and there's a
rookie quarterback, that's throwingthem the ball, Hey, God bless you.
(23:42):
And you're just going to haveto suffer and really be patient
with the level of execution,because this is a learning curve.
I'm going to say this.
Those guys are probably, they mayunderachieve at the beginning of the
season, but maybe starting week fourand beyond, things change because Roma
Doomsday, I think he might've suffered aslight injury in that game, Chicago game.
(24:05):
So, you know, he's a very talented guy.
They're going to find away to get him the ball.
And oh, by the way, he is wide receivernumber three to DJ Moore and Kenyon Allen.
So once again, when you think aboutMcLaurin and you think about Courtland
Sutton, Rookie quarterbacks thatshow a lot of promise in college.
It's just a matter of the offensivecoordinators, keeping the offense
(24:28):
in the rhythm and finding ways tofeature those two guys in the offense.
If that happens, I mean, those guys aregoing to have numbers, but they may not
be numbers that really, truly jump off thepage, but still it's about getting those
guys involved and keeping them involved.
Well, it's funny because thebears have the early vibe this
year, week seven, they're off.
(24:49):
They come back, and we've got a numberone pick facing a number two pick,
Bears, Commanders, later in October.
He's Nick Ferguson.
I'm Alex Hardy.
We are those guys.
We hope to continue to be your guys,especially here on a Fantasy Friday.
We'll be here each and every Friday.
Just look at the bigger pictureof how things fall out from
the previous week, plus lookingahead to the upcoming weekend.
(25:12):
Nick Ferguson, it's a pleasure as always.
At NickFerguson underscore 25.
Uh, what do you have to say to thepeople before we head on out of here?
It is another game week and don'tmake the mistake that I made.
Do not go to the pizzacounter and ask for anchovies.
Don't do it.
It's not a good thing.
No.
(25:33):
That's just bad breath.
That's just bad breath, Nick.
Thank goodness for doing this over Zoom.
We are back.
We are those guys.
It is a fantasy Fridayhere on the program.
Uh, there we go.
There's our official branding.
No better day than Friday, I think,Nick, because you're coming off
the start of the new football week.
You've already done yourwaiver wire pickups.
You're scrambling to see who to start,who to sit, those types of things.
(00:31):
That's not necessarily the angle thatwe're coming at, but Nick Ferguson,
former 10 year NFL safety, here with me.
I'm noticing some certaintrends from week one.
Our theme for the Those Guys NFL showIs to not overreact to week one, but
I think in certain ways with fantasyfootball, you take calculated risks.
(00:51):
If you overreact to a certain extent,you can catch on certain trends, be ahead
of the curve, And if you're wrong, youjust dump that player anyway and you move
on to the next thing to overreact to.
I think the perfect example would be goingin on Jordan Mason before understanding
the full scope of the ChristianMcCaffrey injury throughout the summer.
(01:13):
So, Nick Ferguson.
What's going on my man?
How'd you fare for fantasyfootball week one in the books?
Hey man, it's week one.
I didn't really want to overreact andwhat I'm telling you is, I did not win.
Oh no.
Yeah man, there were a couple ofplayers who definitely underperformed,
but here's the upside to it.
Because you always have to lookat the bright side and the silver
(01:35):
lining of every dark cloud.
Yes,
you're a glass half full guy.
Yeah, it's only week one, andthe same thing happened to
me last year, and guess what?
I won the entire league!
That's why Nick Ferguson is hereheadlining the fantasy football show.
He is a champion, where it countsmost, not a Super Bowl champion,
(01:55):
but a fantasy football championship.
I think something everyone wouldstrive for, comparative to what
you can do on the actual gridiron.
Disappointed with yourweek one performance, Nick.
I'm sure you're not the only one.
Uh, this week one opening, teams averaged188 net passing yards, the fewest
in any week since week 15 in 2007.
(02:20):
Nick Ferguson, I believe a memberof the Houston Texans at the time.
Uh, we, we saw that this was almost 30percent less passing yardage from week
one, five years ago, where teams averagednorth of 260 yards in that week one.
(02:40):
We had two, 300 yard passers, TuaTungavailoa and Matthew Stafford.
Meanwhile, more than half the league.
Under 200 passing yards.
Uh, so Nick, we'retalking about an all time.
Like decades in the making, lack ofproduction in the passing offenses.
(03:01):
We sort of touched on this brieflyin the main football show, which
you can grab in the same podcast.
You can get your podcaston YouTube as well.
My thought process here, Nick, iswe saw some 2007 offense, Nick.
Uh, we had nearly, you know,we had more 100 yard rushers
(03:22):
than we've had in recent years.
Um, were we wrong to be draftingall these receivers early?
Banking on safe, stable productionfrom the elite guys that we were hoping
for in the first couple of rounds?
Or is this just sort of.
An extension of the preseason like youhad alluded to on our previous show.
It's a, it's a microcosmof several things.
(03:44):
Uh, extension of the preseason isone, but also the defensive units.
playing their best ball in week one.
Now, obviously that's subject tochange later on as the season goes on.
But for me, see, I didn't start out mydraft taking a lot of wide receivers.
That's true.
You went
heavy, you went heavywith the running backs.
(04:05):
And Bijon and Kyron bothhad modest, good production.
Well, modest production, but notexactly to what it was last season.
But the idea is that, you know, forme, my theory was select running
backs that I realized that in theoffensive schemes that they're operating
from, they're going to be involvedin both passing and running, so the
(04:26):
volume should definitely be there.
But since week one, not all thatvolume was there, but a lot of teams
were leaning on their run game.
Just think about the Houston Texans, aguy I was able to pick up with Joe Mixon.
I mean, he, he did a lot of damage and alot of fantasy owners were disappointed
that, hey, Christian McCaffrey didn't playbecause it was a calf, Achilles injury,
(04:48):
but Jordan Mason racked up 146 yards.
Who saw that coming?
If you saw that coming, you knewthe ending of the usual suspects
and no one knew the ending of that.
So Jordan Mason ends up beingKaisa Soze in fantasy football.
Well, listen, this is a Shanahan thing.
(05:11):
We've got, we've gone over that anumber of times on the podcast and your
connection to the family playing forMike, you know, before we have Jordan
Mason, there's Alfred Morris beforethere's Alfred Morris, there's what?
Ruben drones before there's Ruben.
I mean, this is just, thisis what the offense does, but
what I think is interesting andwhat we weren't necessarily.
(05:32):
Um, you know, we were kind oftaking blindly and we can throw
the LA Rams into this as well.
The injury reports throughout themonth of August, they don't matter.
You know, Kyle Shanahanand the 49ers offense were.
Telling us that it's a calf,um, that it's just a strain.
He was limited in practice.
Meanwhile, the LA Rams puking Akua's knee.
(05:54):
It's a, a, a bursa sack.
It's, it's, it's, it's aminor acute rare knee injury.
Uh, For all we know, it was always anAchilles for McCaffrey and it was always
a PCL for Puca, but there's no requirementfor these teams to fully disclose these
things to not only opposing teams, but totheir fans and fantasy football players.
(06:15):
So it's an adjustment, you know,correct me if I'm wrong, but last
year, I took the discount on CooperCupp, thinking that his, his, uh, his
injuries coming into the season wouldclear up after a couple of weeks.
Turned out there was asetback and they didn't.
And then, This year, I dropped Puka Nakua,thinking that it's a minor injury, and
(06:35):
there's a setback that lands him on IR inhis first half of football this season.
So, uh, It's difficult to track, youknow, not only the lack of production
or predict it, Kaisers so say, butit's also teams aren't necessarily
held to the same standards in terms ofdocumentary, documenting and reporting
(06:56):
the injuries that we will now see asthey are fully scrutinized throughout
the course of the regular season, Nick.
Yeah, but let's be totally honest.
I mean, your guy, Bill Belichick madeit infamous and he was great at doing
this, Playing the waiver wire andsaying, okay, well, a guy may play,
he may not play, never really leadingon to the severity of the injury.
(07:19):
And sometimes putting healthy guys on theinjury report just to throw teams off.
So most coaches say, look,we're coaching for our team.
We can get two nickels about thefantasy owners and trying to make
sure that they set their rosters.
So yes, could there be some truthabout what happened with Puka?
Or Kristen McCaffrey.
Absolutely, but those coaches, like,we don't have to acquiesce to you fans.
(07:43):
We don't care.
We're trying, we're in thebusiness of cloak and dagger.
We want to keep things assecret as we can, but we see
that those two players out.
But, it opens up an opportunityfor other players on said roster.
Jordan Mason took advantage of it againstRobert Salah in the New York Jets.
The matter of the fact was trying tofigure out, well, who's going to be that
(08:04):
new player of this week and week two.
So, part of predicting that, right,we don't know the injuries, we don't
know, there's so many variables.
Nick, from your experience, whenyou see how certain defenses play,
not just with week one, but we seecertain things that we saw a year ago.
For example, one of the, uh, the only teamthat had four passing touchdowns, Baker
(08:28):
Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, uh,took advantage of a Washington commander's
defense that was among the worst.
Defending the pass last year.
And, and we're seeing that again.
So are we just saying that anyteam that's playing against the
commanders is an automatic start?
Does that mean that with the New Yorkgiants coming down to our nation's
(08:49):
capital, uh, Daniel Jones and Malikneighbors are all in play now, all of a
sudden compared to these six points thatwe just saw them put up against Minnesota.
I mean, you put the commanders in there.
I asked because you mentionedRobert Sala and the jets, right?
This is a buck 50.
That Jordan Mason, uh,has yards from scrimmage.
Um, Against a Jets defense that'sjust poorly coached from Robert Sala.
(09:14):
So, I mean, do you hang your hat on theteams that just cannot stop the run?
That's, you know, uh, the Jets, theBengals, um, and those that they
can't defend the pass that was theEagles, the commanders, uh, and just,
again, Anytime your players playthe Panthers, you have to play them.
Well, for me, it's about matchups of theweek and they change from week to week.
(09:39):
It's, I'll start with Carolina thatyou mentioned because the Carolina
Panthers, they didn't play well on theroad against Derrick Carr and the Saints.
And we saw what happened there.
And the charges who theyfaced this week beat up on the
Raiders and Gardner Minshew.
So if you are looking to stream a defense.
To me, you want to go and stream theChargers against Carolina because
(10:02):
that seems like it's an easy win.
It's almost like being a fifthgrader, going out to the sandbox
and just taking some kids juice box.
That's an easy victory, right?
That's kind of what you look at.
So I'd play the, I'd play the Chargerslast week against the Raiders because
I wasn't very optimistic with GardnerMinshew and that, that turned out
fine, but that also extends to J.
(10:23):
K.
Dobbins, you know, who's owned,you know, prior, you know, he
was owned in about 50, 60%.
Of Yahoo leagues.
And if he was, if he was a free agent,he was the top waiver priority because
he had had broken those two big runs.
He had had the majority of thebackfield work for the chargers.
I think it was only 10 carries,but still manage 133 yards.
And now he goes up againsta Panthers defense that.
(10:47):
Just lost Derrick Brown for the year.
So, look, J.
K.
Dobbins was either stashed on the endof your bench, one of your later picks,
or you just picked him up off waivers.
For your team, Nick, you're probablynot going to bench one of Joe Mixon,
Kyron Williams, or Bijon Robinson.
But, I mean, J.
K.
Dobbins is, is this, this is kindof the example I was searching for.
(11:10):
Is a guy who handled 10 rushes, buthad very good production off of it.
I'll be it off of two long runs.
Is he an automatic start, you know,a, a, a running back one, you know,
a top 12, maybe top 15 runningback just for the fact alone that
he's playing the Carolina Panthers.
Yes,
(11:31):
yes.
And yes, again, I live in aworld of, okay, if a guy does
well, and he was, uh, I guess.
Unexpected to do as wellas he did in the game.
To me, I want to give it another weekto see if he's able to produce the same
level of production in the week before.
But knowing as though you're facingagainst the Carolina Panthers, yes.
(11:55):
And it's just like, if you, whateverwide receiver, whatever defense,
whatever you have facing theCarolina Panthers, you start all of
them this week until Dave Canelas.
And his quarterback, Bryce Young,shows you anything different.
But J.
K.
Dobbins was definitelyone of those players.
And immediately when I saw him breakoff the first run, I was trying to put
(12:19):
a waiver claim into him right away.
But there was someoneelse who was a priority.
over me so they were able to secure him.
But this is the great thing aboutthe season and fantasy football.
Uh, as I see it, because somepeople are in dynasty leagues
where you or keeper leagues whereyou just stuck with your players.
(12:40):
I'm not in those types of league.
Right.
Yeah.
Yes.
And I'm always watching games.
Just to see which player that I didn'tanticipate that would somewhat do
something where I say, you know what,I'm projecting weeks from now, that
player is going to be a go to player.
Maybe I should add him to my roster.
I'm constantly looking forplayers to, to add to my roster,
(13:02):
but great production by J.
K.
Dobbins, let's see if he can duplicatethat again against the Panthers.
So I, I want to use that as an example.
And I said this at the top of the show.
You can go somewhere else for,you know, answer your start, sit
questions, all this and that.
I just sort of want to broaden theconversation around fantasy football and
(13:24):
leverage your experience, Nick, when itcomes to roster and lineup decisions.
So we'll, we'll take the examplesof the two running backs.
We've spent the most time on right.
J K Dobbin road, Carolina.
Uh, Jordan Mason against the Vikings.
I'm not saying, would youprioritize one over the other.
I guess what I'm asking for is,when you have that type of decision,
(13:45):
if it's Mason versus Dobbins, orif it's any running back that you
drafted outside of the top 15, right?
You didn't draft JonathanTaylor and sit him on the bench.
You didn't draft, uh, uh, uh, uh, B.
John Robinson to havehim sit on the bench.
I understand that.
But when you look at matchups, when youlook at how much opportunity they had,
(14:06):
their, their success, their productionfrom the previous game, their, their
previous track record going years back,how, you know, what's your chart, your,
your flow, your organizational flow,your chart that says, I'm going to factor
the fact that, well, Jordan Mason hadmore carries, had more rushing yards,
Had, uh, one touchdown compared to J.
(14:26):
K.
Dobbins, who didn't handle the rock asmuch, who didn't have as many yards,
but was, uh, he was more efficient.
Uh, well the Panthers are, youknow, the Vikings have a better
defense than the Panthers do.
But they're still susceptible tothe run because Brian Flores is
all in or out with the pass brush.
I just, you have all of these thingskind of swirling around in your head.
Well, Jim Harbaugh wants to runthe football with the Chargers.
(14:49):
Oh, Kyle Shanahan is going to putthe ball in Brock Purdy's hands.
How do you sort of break down all ofthese variables when it comes to deciding
which running back to go to, maybe thisis a bad example because the answer
is always gonna be Yeah, play the guythat's playing against the Panthers.
I'm just what?
What factors kind of weigh in foryou when it comes to their previous
(15:11):
production, their coaching style, theirpace of play, and the opponent that
they're facing for an upcoming week.
Well, since we're talking aboutrunning backs, I always look at the
defense that they're playing and I askmyself, well, how do they do last week
or season leading up to that point?
As far as yards given up on the ground.
And then I also look at the running backand say, okay, well, is this a tandem
(15:36):
or 300, 300 monster type of backfield?
Because you're thinking about In thecase of Jordan Mason, yeah, you're
playing against the Vikings, and I cantell you, the Vikings have tried so many
ways since Sunday to try to slow downCallum Shanahan in their running attack,
but because they coach their techniqueso well, it makes it really difficult.
(15:57):
And what we don't know, and this is aparticular point, you're saying, okay,
well, if, will Kristen McCaffrey play?
Because you're wondering, okay,how many, how many I guess splits
as far as carries are they'regoing to be, because it's about.
Well, I guess in this example, you know,the reporting, I think this was Adam
Schefter on Monday night and otherssaying that it's unlikely McCaffrey
(16:19):
would play because I would imagine thatif they're going to put them on the
field, he he's going to get all thetouches and then it becomes a no brainer.
You play him.
So I guess in this example, you go with.
Uh, Jordan Mason, and that'sthe other variable, right?
We have more of a track record with J.
K.
Dobbins than Jordan Mason.
At the same time, that alsocarries an injury risk that
Jordan Mason doesn't have.
(16:39):
So all of these things, and Iappreciate you weighing in, Nick,
is, is sort of filtering through.
Understanding, you know, whatit is in sort of prioritizing.
You look to the opposing defense first,you see how they've done previously.
And then it comes down to, uh, theprofile of the player on your roster.
You're trying to, youknow, decide between one.
(16:59):
Or the other, uh, Nick, any otherplayers or thoughts, um, that
you have coming off of week one?
Uh, I'm not going to overreactto Drake London and the Falcons.
I hate that offense, but I'm not tryingto trade away Drake London just yet.
I know that the Falcons are hopefullygoing to get right when Aaron, uh,
Aaron, the, the other guy with theAchilles injury, Kirk Cousins is
(17:21):
feeling more like himself, but.
Who are we not going tooverreact to just yet?
Well, I would, I would lookat the tight end position.
Uh, one, I mean, Dallas got her, he gotyou over seven points in fantasy football,
um, Evan Ingram did not, it just seemedas though Trevor Lawrence found some
(17:45):
different target, distributive ball
too.
So there 10 PPR points, uh, for week one.
And your week one tight endleader for last season, Nick, was
Was it, uh, I think itwas, was it Dallas Garden?
It was Hunter Henry.
(18:05):
So all I'm saying, folks, is let'sbe patient with the position.
Right?
If you went zero, if you went, youknow, zero tight end, if you didn't
reach for one of the elite guysthis year, uh, good, good on you.
If you Are starting MarkAndrews right now, Nick?
I'm, you're not in a full panic, are you?
I think the Chiefs took him away.
(18:26):
Isaiah Likely was the othertop waiver pickup this year.
I, I prefer Dobbins.
Personally, I have the topwaiver claim in one league.
I, I pick Dobbins because itseemed more sustainable to me.
I think if you're going to havea one starter position like
tight end, I want a modest floor.
And Isaiah Likely clearly, clearly showedus his ceiling, but I am not into that.
(18:48):
Ready to get on thatrollercoaster for Titan 1 vs.
Titan 25 next week, depending on howdefenses align with Marc Andrews or not.
Um, I guess with that position, I justlike to see who's out there running
routes, which is why I targetedColby Parkinson a lot in drafts.
Because he was going to run thefull route tree for the Rams,
(19:10):
something he wasn't doing in Seattle.
They gave him money this offseason, andSure enough, it's modest work, you know,
to get four catches in about 40 yards.
That's about as good as you coulddo for that position for week one.
Well, since we're talking about tightends, I think last season a lot of fantasy
owners were upset about the productionof Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts.
(19:34):
I thought, you know, with Zach Robinsoncoming in, and whether it was Penix
or Kirk Cousins, That the numberswere, and the volume would be higher
for a guy like Kyle Pitts, but in thegame against Pittsburgh, where they
should have used him so much to reallystretch that defense, they did not.
And hopefully this is, this isnot, you know, early warning signs
(19:56):
that we're going to have a secondyear of Kyle Pitts underachieving.
Hopefully that's not the case.
I think it's year three now,after his rookie season where
he recorded a thousand yards.
It'd be three years ina row underachieving.
But again, we're not going to overreact.
Nick, before we split, I'd be remissif I didn't mention we talked about
(20:19):
the lack of quarterback production.
And of course that was maybe besthighlighted by a number of the young
quarterbacks, you know, that includedsecond year guys like Will Levis, uh,
and sixth year guys like Daniel Jones,but the three rookie quarterbacks, Jaden
Daniels, Beau Nix, Caleb Williams, thethree of them combining for 415 passing
yards, you know, You know, Nick's kindof bailed out some of their fantasy
(20:43):
production with the use of their legs.
Um, but Nick, before we split, I just, Igotta ask that, that Nick's debut, that
Caleb Williams debut, I'm gonna honein on those two in particular and maybe
have you lean toward your Denver Broncos.
But, I mean, we're not calling thisdraft class a bust now, are we?
After we hailed them as one of thebest that we've seen since 2003 or,
(21:07):
you know, something along those lines.
Hopefully not.
Well, I'm not calling them,uh, any of them a bust because
I understand how this works.
That's not to say that people herein Denver, people, those people
being certain media members and moreimportantly, certain members of the
fan base, because there's a level ofexcitement that was built up for Bo.
(21:31):
Bo did not play in thelast preseason game.
Uh, and I let you know my details on that.
So.
This is not one of those situations whereyou don't need the panning and after
week one, you're calling the guy a buzz.
To me, it says a lot about theindividuals making those statements
and their ability to be patient,but their football IQ, because a
lot of rookie players, especiallya quarterback, don't perform well.
(21:55):
in week one.
Rarely do we see a guy who's draftednumber one overall or in the top 10
win their first game and especiallyBo playing in Seattle on the road.
No, there were a bunch of homershere, uh, with the, the, the
networks and the radio stations.
Oh, go Broncos.
(22:16):
And they only did that tokind of tear the kid down.
And I knew it was going tobe a very tall task for him.
Each one of those quarterbacks get achance to bounce back Caleb Williams.
First overall pick.
Say whatever you want tosay about his performance.
Guess what?
He emerged victorious.
Which proves that quarterbacks are notthe only thing that's important when it
(22:39):
comes to determining wins and losses.
You know, this is revisionist history too,because in my mind I'm thinking, well, C.
J.
Stroud, clearly the exception of therule, his week one outing against
the Baltimore Ravens, the offensescored nine points, so no touchdowns.
Uh, 242 passing yards,no touchdowns, no picks.
So, again, we even haveto be patient with C.
(23:00):
J.
Stroud for how good that he is.
But I guess, because this is theFantasy Friday, Nick, Washington's
pass catchers, the wide receivers,combine for 7 catches for 45 yards.
Chicago's pass catchers, Denver'spass catchers, Washington's, until
we see it with these rookies, Areyou leaning towards benching the
(23:21):
likes of DJ Moore, Roma Doonzay,Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton?
Where are you kind of at, or areyou just willing to take the lumps
as these rookies kind of navigate?
You know, their professional careers.
Look, man, if you ever playedwith a wide receiver and there's a
rookie quarterback, that's throwingthem the ball, Hey, God bless you.
(23:42):
And you're just going to haveto suffer and really be patient
with the level of execution,because this is a learning curve.
I'm going to say this.
Those guys are probably, they mayunderachieve at the beginning of the
season, but maybe starting week fourand beyond, things change because Roma
Doomsday, I think he might've suffered aslight injury in that game, Chicago game.
(24:05):
So, you know, he's a very talented guy.
They're going to find away to get him the ball.
And oh, by the way, he is wide receivernumber three to DJ Moore and Kenyon Allen.
So once again, when you think aboutMcLaurin and you think about Courtland
Sutton, Rookie quarterbacks thatshow a lot of promise in college.
It's just a matter of the offensivecoordinators, keeping the offense
(24:28):
in the rhythm and finding ways tofeature those two guys in the offense.
If that happens, I mean, those guys aregoing to have numbers, but they may not
be numbers that really, truly jump off thepage, but still it's about getting those
guys involved and keeping them involved.
Well, it's funny because thebears have the early vibe this
year, week seven, they're off.
(24:49):
They come back, and we've got a numberone pick facing a number two pick,
Bears, Commanders, later in October.
He's Nick Ferguson.
I'm Alex Hardy.
We are those guys.
We hope to continue to be your guys,especially here on a Fantasy Friday.
We'll be here each and every Friday.
Just look at the bigger pictureof how things fall out from
the previous week, plus lookingahead to the upcoming weekend.
(25:12):
Nick Ferguson, it's a pleasure as always.
At NickFerguson underscore 25.
Uh, what do you have to say to thepeople before we head on out of here?
It is another game week and don'tmake the mistake that I made.
Do not go to the pizzacounter and ask for anchovies.
Don't do it.
It's not a good thing.
No.
(25:33):
That's just bad breath.
That's just bad breath, Nick.
Thank goodness for doing this over Zoom.
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