Episode Transcript
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Music.
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Co-founder and principal of Harbor Bridge Ventures Incorporated. How are you, Bruce?
Good. Having a great morning. Thank you. All right. Terrific.
Tell me a little bit about Harbor Bridge Ventures.
Harbor Bridge Ventures is both a consulting organization and also provides venture capital.
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Our focus has been largely in the technology sector.
I originally came out of the financial services industry, and then co-founded
a global banking software company.
After leaving that, when the company was acquired, I decided to become an active
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investor in the technology sector, and I've been doing that since 2003.
My partner in that business is an attorney with three law degrees.
He's practiced both corporate and tax law in New Zealand, Australia,
Singapore, and the United States.
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All right. Terrific. Yeah. I was going to say you guys are worldwide.
So you have experience and firsthand knowledge of economics around the globe,
right? Quite extensively.
My customers in my banking software days in my company were located in over
50 countries around the world,
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and all of them were in the top tier of the financial institutions and their individual markets.
Most of them are brand names in the financial services industry that anybody
familiar with global banking would recognize.
Okay. All right. And I know you have a web presence with your company at,
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what's that web address for Harbor Bridge Ventures?
Www.hbvinc.com. Okay.
Terrific. Well, we have you on the podcast because we want to talk about economics.
We want to talk about how Bidenomics has benefited the U.S. economy.
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Why do you think that it's hard to get the message across?
I know there's been a lot of positive movement over the Biden administration,
but for some reason it gets lost in the media shuffle.
Well, I think people have a tendency to have short memories.
Yeah, that's the truth. And the pandemic, the COVID pandemic,
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was so devastating economically to so many people.
I think a lot of us would like to just block out those two to three years that
we've suffered so badly from that. Sure, sure.
But the Biden administration has done really a great job of recovering from
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the pandemic. And that was one of the promises that Biden made when he came in.
A lot of people may not remember that we were actually right in the middle of
the pandemic when Biden was inaugurated.
And he really promised America that he would get it through to the other side successfully.
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And I feel he's done a great job of that. Okay.
Yeah. You know, the numbers, when you look at the statistics and the numbers,
then you can see that we definitely have.
But again, all people talk about are the kitchen table issues like inflation.
Is that mainly a corporate thing or what?
I think a lot of money went into the economy as a part of getting us to the
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other side of the pandemic, which Biden had promised to do, we said just a moment ago.
And all that money being injected by the government into the economy certainly
contributed to inflationary prices.
That's what happened with large government spending. And since then,
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the economic policies and controls instituted by the Federal Reserve,
primarily over interest rates,
have inflated interest rates considerably.
And everybody who has any kind of debt or is in the markets for a new car,
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for example, or wants to put charges on their credit card or is looking to buy
a home understands what a significantly higher interest rate do to a household budget.
Oh, absolutely. And that absolutely is having an impact on a lot of people.
Now, those of us who have been around, like I have, in my late 70s now,
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remember what inflation was like during the 1970s and 1980s,
where inflation actually got up to double digit rates.
It peaked at almost 14%. And it took us 15 years, really.
And eventually, Paul Volcker boosted interest rates so high as chairman of the
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Federal Reserve that it eventually did kill inflation and brought it back down to more normal rates.
But that really required 15 years. If you look at what's happened recently.
We've really moderated inflation back significantly towards the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%.
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We're now down to the latest numbers at 3.3% annual since June of last year.
But really, if you look at the recent months, inflation is really coming very
close to the Federal Reserve's target rate.
That happened in 18 months, unlike the prior period in the 70s and 80s,
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where it required a decade and a half to do that.
So the one thing that is probably confusing to myself anyway as a consumer is,
so higher interest rates on the federal level.
Then tend to bring inflation down. Is that how that works?
Yes, because it has a tendency to depress capital spending.
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People tend not to buy as much, and they tend not to borrow as much because
interest rates are high.
So that pressure on both consumers and businesses then tends to moderate inflation
and bring it back under control.
And then in turn, that almost seems like that has a negative effect on the stock
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market. Is that correct?
Well, it can have a negative effect on the stock market, except if you actually
look closely at what the market has done under Biden, the stock market has actually performed very well.
Just in the last several months, we've been hitting one high after another,
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after another, week in and week out on the stock market.
So if people take a look at their 401ks and corporate pension plans and other
things, they're all doing very well.
Yeah. And I think that a lot of economists say that you cannot judge the economy
just by looking at what the market's doing. Right. Right.
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And I think one of the things we need to remember is that if you look at the
net wealth of most individual families, that net wealth is primarily represented by their home.
It's not for most people represented by their stock portfolio.
Sure. A lot of working people, you know, don't have much invested,
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if anything, in the stock market anyway.
So, you know, a lot of people that are talking about kitchen table issues and
so forth. It's really kind of meaningless to them on that side,
isn't it? For a lot of people, absolutely.
The majority, well, and I won't go into a lengthy discussion about how much
the wealth gap has increased over a recent couple of decades,
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but it continued to compound year after year after year after year.
And most people do not have significant stock portfolios. Yeah,
it's well, you know, I guess it's probably another discussion for another time.
But the fact that people don't do, you know, the working world is so much different now.
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You know, it used to be you'd have a career, you know, for 30 years,
you'd have benefits and you could support your family.
But it's it's so much different these days. Right.
Well, yes. And I think one of the things you really have to look at is any time
we're going through challenging economic times.
Really, one of the most important things is that people have a job.
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Sure. Yeah, that's a given.
Supports household budgets. And during the Biden administration,
we've created 15.7 billion new jobs.
New jobs. Now, that's absolutely unbelievable.
If you looked at the last...
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Three Republican-admitted presidential administrations combined.
Including Trump, those administrations only created slightly less than 2 million jobs.
Those three administrations together, Biden, in three and a half years,
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has created 15.7 million jobs.
Wow. And we now have more people employed today than we did before the pandemic.
That's terrific. So it isn't just recovery from the pandemic.
The Biden administration has done a great job in creating jobs.
Yeah. And I think I just read that the last quarter, more jobs were created
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than were expected by the by the government. Right.
Yes. And that's happened every month of the Biden administration.
You can't beat that. And estimates before the numbers come out are always lower
than what actually happens.
Yeah. And that's great. And there's a lot of reasons why that's happening.
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And we can get into a little bit more of that as we progress in this discussion.
All right. Well, what other pressures? I know we talked about inflationary pressures,
the Federal Reserve's response, and so forth.
And I know, you know, it was a much quicker recovery compared to past recessions.
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Do interest rates have to rise for inflation to stay low?
Interest rates have to rise to bring inflation back into the range that the
Federal Reserve and the government would like to see it.
The Federal Reserve target is a 2% annual inflation rate.
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The Federal Reserve really has few jobs in their charter that they're supposed
to pay attention to beyond just their regulatory responsibilities.
And those two jobs are trying to boost employment and economic growth along
with it, and at the same time, to moderate inflation and keep it under control.
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And their target for unemployment is to see unemployment at or below 4%.
And their target for inflation is 2% annual rate.
So everything that the Federal Reserve is doing as part of their monetary responsibilities.
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Monetary control responsibilities, is to hit those two targets.
4% or lower unemployment, and 2% or lower annual inflation rate.
And we do need some inflation in order to support economic growth.
Okay, sure. And our country is obviously doing much better than other countries
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around the world, right?
We are the envy of the world from an economic perspective.
We not only came back faster than all of the other countries post-pandemic,
And now we're talking about the advanced economies of the world.
But we also came back lower.
So in other words, we brought inflation under control much more quickly and
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to a much lower annual rate than any of the other advanced countries in the world.
Some of the things that Bidenomics has done to benefit the economy,
like support for small businesses, a lot of people don't or aren't aware of that, right?
Yes. Well, let's talk just briefly about a couple of the largest things that
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the Biden administration has done.
Sure. In March of 2021, the Biden administration worked with Congress to pass
the American Rescue Plan.
That was March of 2021. For consumers, as part of that plan,
people should remember that taxpayers, individual families, got $1,400 per person.
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And approximately $160 million of those $1,400 payments went out to individuals.
That's a total of about $400 billion that the government had injected.
At the same time, the American Rescue Plan also instituted enhanced unemployment
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benefits that provided an additional three hundred dollars per week over and
above the regular unemployment benefit payments. Wow.
And that was also a tremendous injection of money into the economy for small businesses.
They instituted the Paycheck Protection Program, and the Paycheck Protection
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Program offered forgivable loans to small businesses to keep their workforce
employed during the pandemic.
By the end of 2021, the Small Business Administration had approved over 11.8
million Paycheck Protection Program loans, totaling more than 800 billion dollars.
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Now, remember, those loans, if businesses kept those employees on their payrolls,
were all forgivable loans.
There was also an economic injury disaster loan program that provided another
$150 billion in low-interest loans to help small businesses recover.
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And for restaurants, which everybody remembers, were particularly hard hit during the pandemic.
The Restaurant Revitalization Fund provided almost $29 billion in direct relief
to over 100,000 restaurants and other food and beverage establishments.
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That money going into the economy to help recover from the pandemic is really
what contributed to the inflationary pressures, pushed the rates up a little
bit for a short period of time.
Okay. I guess, you know, a question from the other side then.
What about all that investment's effect on the deficit?
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Right now we have, you know, higher deficits than we've ever had in our history,
right? Right. Actually, the Biden administration has brought the deficit, not the debt.
There's a difference between the deficit and the debt, which a lot of people confuse.
Yeah, I was just going to say. Yeah. The national debt is one thing,
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and that's supported by our treasury bills and bonds and so forth.
And the national debt does continue to grow.
But we have done a very good job under to the Biden administration of bringing down the deficit,
which is the difference between revenues and expenditures annually for the federal government.
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And actually, the deficit was much higher during the Trump administration than
it has been during the Biden administration.
And primarily, that increase
in the deficit during the Trump administration was the result of the Tax Cut
and Jobs Act that Republicans like to talk about so much as their tax cut that
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brought down the tax rates paid by the wealthiest of our taxpayers and corporations.
The corporate tax rate came down from 35 percent to 21 percent.
That's a tremendous reduction. Yeah.
And that really drove up deficits to a much higher level.
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So if you're talking about the deficit, Biden administration has done a much
better job of bringing that deficit to a lower level.
And when you talk about tax rates and the difference in tax rates,
I was reading recently that when you lower.
The tax rate on corporations, that it actually generates more revenue into the
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Federal Reserve. Is that not correct?
But then on the other hand, then a larger tax burden goes to the working poor. Does that make sense?
No. Okay, good. I'm glad.
Lowering the tax rate does not drive more money into the federal treasury.
Okay, so higher-end earners then are not more willing to pay their fair share
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as opposed to seeking out tax breaks?
Well, let me put it this way. Okay.
If you were, let's say, a business and you were paying 35 cents of every dollar
that you had on your net income line and all of a sudden the government came along and said,
well, next year you're not going to have to pay $0.35 of every dollar.
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You only have to pay $0.21.
Do you think they're going to pay more than the $0.21?
Well, no, I think they're always going to look for a tax break.
Well, the answer is, yeah, the revenues coming into the federal treasury dropped off significantly,
when that Tax Cut and Jobs Act went through, primarily because of the reductions
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in the the corporate tax rate.
And that drove deficits up to astronomical levels, which also added to the federal debt.
If you look at the amount of money that was added to the federal debt during
the Trump administration,
it's significantly more than the amount of money that's been added to the the
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federal, the national debt under the Biden administration.
Okay. So there's no evidence at all that Trump was more fiscally responsible
or that Republicans were more fiscally responsible.
And by the way, that's been not only true, the Trump administration compared
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to the Biden administration, that's been historically true since the 1940s.
Of every Republican administration. So that's the theory of?
Democratic administration.
Is that the theory of trickle-down economics then?
Well, the theory of trickle-down economics is that if you let wealthy individuals
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and corporations keep more of their profits or their money,
that they will then somehow push that money back into the economy by investing it.
There's no evidence ever that proves that theory true.
No. Yeah. And that's not just my opinion, the opinion of every economist that
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you can talk to. All right.
That's good enough for me. I know, you know, one thing Trump always talked about
infrastructure, infrastructure, but he never got anything done.
But President Biden has done a lot for infrastructure, correct?
Yeah. And we want to take a look at the Infrastructure and Jobs Act,
which was passed in November of 2021 on actually a bipartisan basis with a few
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Republican votes in Congress for it, as well as Democratic votes.
But Biden really led the way on that.
And that Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will wind up injecting $1.2
trillion billion in infrastructure spending over the next decade.
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$550 billion of that is going to be allocated over the first five years.
And as Biden has been going around the country talking about that and celebrating
some of the projects that are actually now being started,
Republicans have tried to take credit for that.
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But it was really the Biden administration and Democrats who led the way on that.
Most of the Republicans voted against it.
Yeah. Yeah. And it's estimated that by 2030.
The projects that are now being started and underway are going to wind up adding
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about We have 2.3 million new jobs into our economy as well.
All of those jobs are primarily what are typically called blue-collar jobs.
And the act also requires that that work be done with American material and
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supplies and largely by union labor forces.
Okay. Yeah. And speaking of a difference between...
The former president's policies and Joe Biden, of course, Trump has talked about
adding a huge tariff to Chinese imports.
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Right. And that will actually hurt consumers. Right. Yes.
The Trump continues to talk about how much money he can get from exporters of
other countries through tariffs.
He's talked about a 10% tariff on everything imported into the U.S.
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Tariffs are actually paid by the American consumer. Oh, sure.
What a tariff does is raise the price on goods that are imported into the U.S. Yeah.
And every individual who's ever taken an economics course in their college career
understands that when you add tariffs into the mix of economic policy,
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it's consumers who pay those tariffs.
And we could go back and look all the way to the holy snoop tariffs that went
into effect that really contributed substantially to the depression in the early
part of the last century.
And economists pretty much have all looked back at that and said,
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Harris, you're one of the primary causes of the depression.
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, anytime companies have to pay more to produce goods and
services, then it's ultimately going to come down to the consumer making up the difference.
Is it safe to say that, for example, in infrastructure, all the improvements
that are being made in our area on highways are a result of infrastructure investment?
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The infrastructure investments that are being made are, yeah,
we're repairing and paving highways and improving them, widening them.
It's important to think about all the lead pipes that are being removed.
Oh, yeah. And that has benefits not only in terms of it being an infrastructure
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investment that's improving our water distribution systems,
but as a benefit to the health of all the individuals.
Everybody understands that having lead in our water supply is significantly
harmful, particularly to children. Oh, yeah.
So replacing all those lead pipes across the country and communities across
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the country is extremely important.
We're also making huge investments in renewable energy.
And since we're having this discussion in Texas, we should understand that Texas,
in spite of all the talk about us being the center of the fossil fuels industry
and so forth. I think I know where you're going with this.
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Texas produces significantly more renewable energy than any other state.
I have read that. Yeah, despite efforts. And obviously, the oil and gas industry
is important to the state and the nation.
But, you know, we do have to look to the future.
Well, and it's not only looking to the future. is the fact that renewable energy,
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wind and solar, are the two least expensive forms providing electricity to homes and businesses.
And the fact that Texas has invested in the renewable energy,
and it's important to understand that most of that investment is coming from the private sector.
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These are companies that are building...
Solar farms and wind farms. Now, they're getting grants and assistance from
the federal government, not from our state government.
But that has resulted in a lot of the reason why Texas is now seeing so many
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businesses relocating to Texas because we have so much available power hour
and it's relatively inexpensive.
Well, thanks to the renewable energy. Yeah, that is true.
We do have issues, obviously, with our power grid and then incentives bringing
new businesses and new technologies into the state, such as Bitcoin mining.
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I mean, do that, you know, they incent incentivize companies,
but they don't look at the big picture.
Well, now what a strain that's That's putting on our power grid with all the Bitcoin mining, right?
Yes. And and there is talk in the Texas legislature about trying to deal with
that in a more, I'll say, rational way.
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Makes sense. That the beneficial to the to the state and the economy so that
it is not being at the expense of consumers or other industries. Sure.
Yeah. Yeah. It seems like in a lot of cases, the state will have a knee-jerk
reaction to something like that, but then not realize the issues that can come up as a result.
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Well, Bitcoin or cyber currency mining is still actually individual instances
of that are huge consumers of electricity.
Yes. But that, you know, a relatively very minor portion of the electrical or
the electricity utilization.
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Oh, OK. OK. So.
It's a problem, particularly in high utilization periods.
Right. In very hot portions of the summer or very cold portions of the winter,
when we need that electricity to provide heat and cooling in our homes.
Yeah, I know there's a lot of concern, especially now with climate change and
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hotter summers, and nobody wants to experience a brownout or a blackout. Yeah.
And I mean, I just saw an article the other day that referred to a recent very
hot day over a weekend here in Texas where 80 percent,
80 percent of the electricity that was used on that particular day came for
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renewable sources in Texas. Wow. 80 percent.
So, you know, we're producing an awful lot of power in Texas.
One of our challenges here at Techie is decades ago, a decision was made in
the state to isolate Texas from the rest of the national grid. Yes.
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When we have challenges here in Texas, we can't pull in electricity or power
from other courses of the national grid. Right.
Except for El Paso and a small area in the northern part of the Panhandle.
Oh, really? That was done because they didn't want the federal government to
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tell them how to run their state power grid.
Well, that was probably a pretty short-sighted decision.
Exactly right. Yeah. And the problem is it's going to require not only a change
of attitude in our state government toward that AT.
It would also require a significant capital investment to connect Texas into
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the rest of the national grid.
And that's an investment that Air State and the private power companies in Texas
don't seem interested in making.
They'd rather keep using their existing sources.
But the investment that they're making in renewable energy, both wind and solar,
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is a good thing. And in the meantime, we also are the largest producer of natural gas.
And in periods where we don't have the sunlight for solar power or wind for
wind farms, that supply of natural gas is what sees us through those periods.
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Well, that's always good to hear the positive side of it. Now,
when we talk... Yeah, it's also important to understand that
Even though natural gas isn't fossil fuel, the cleanest fossil fuel is so much better than coal.
Coal power plants are rapidly becoming an anachronism.
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So as far as, you know, we've covered how our economic recovery is working and
things are looking good.
If there is a change in administration in November, do all those plans just
go by the wayside or how do we?
Fortunately, the Infrastructure and Investment Act that was passed in November of 2021,
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those projects are all underway and have been approved, and they're being permitted
now, and that will continue, and that's a good thing.
There are a number of things that we should all be concerned and aware of should
Trump return to power and its impact on the economy.
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His naivete about managing the economy is a real problem.
He has no demonstrated history of surrounding himself with advisers and people
who are well-informed and capable of providing him with guidance that he will actually take.
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So that's the problem. The Biden, if you look at where we are,
and I remind people of this often,
it's not just a vote in November for the Biden, for Joe Biden, rather.
It's really a vote for the Biden administration and the Biden team.
He's done a great job of surrounding himself with very capable.
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Is that with Trump's naivete, his eagerness to impose power,
which will be very damaging to the economy,
likely countries around the world would retaliate in similar fashion and make
it much difficult, more difficult for U.S.
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Exporters and earn our economy. All of that will be bad for consumers,
drive up prices, drive up inflation, pull back economic growth,
actually drive up unemployment.
It's just very, very worrying when you think about all of what Trump may do if he gets back in.
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Sure. Yeah, that's something that discussions I've had with other people,
too. A lot of people don't realize there's an entire support staff.
And, you know, Trump, on the other hand, thinks he can do everything by himself
and make all the decisions, regardless of what advice he's given.
If you look at his past business failures, then we know how well that went.
At least Biden has a good staff and looks at all sides of the issues, right?
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Yes, but I think that to go back to the comment I made a couple of minutes ago,
it's not just a vote for Joe Biden.
It's really a vote for the Biden administration, the Biden team and the Biden vision for America.
His whole mantra, trying to grow the economy from the middle out to the bottom
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up, is very different than the trickle-down vision of Republicans and Trump.
When you put all that money into the top of the funnel, thinking that it's gonna
trickle down to those quotes.
Who are further down on the economic ladder, not much comes out the bottom of
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the funnel. Yeah, that's for sure.
One other question I had, you know, we talk about passing acts and things in
the federal government.
And now there's so much pushback from the other side.
It's really hard to get anything done on a bipartisan basis.
Well, I am an active member of the Blue Horizon Texas team that is trying to recruit.
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Train, and build support networks for Democratic candidates across red and rural areas of Texas.
And I think it's very important that we all think not only about the national
races, what's going on at the federal level,
but remember our local and state races.
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Those are very important.
If you think about a lot of what's happened across America at the state level
in the last decade or two,
a lot of what people feel are rights being taken away and other infringements
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have actually happened at the state level and not the federal level.
So I think we need to focus on those local and state races as well as the federal races.
We also need it to federal level to think not only about the top of the ticket.
What happens in the House and what happens in the Senate is extremely important.
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And if you look, for example, at the advances that were made in the first two
years of the Biden administration,
because Democrats had control of both the House and the Senate,
even though our margin was only one vote.
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Kamala Harris' vote in the Senate to break the ice, The Biden administration
got an awful lot done working with Congress to pass things.
Then Republicans took over the House, admittedly with a fairly thin margin.
But if you look at the chaos that's happened in the House over the last couple of years,
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we had the first speaker that was removed from the top of the chamber by his
own party when Kevin McCarthy was deposed.
The Republican House has been capped.
It's been an absolute clown show for the last two years. Yeah,
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that's putting it mildly. Since they took over.
So if you want to see actual governance take place and look at what was done
on a bipartisan basis in the first two years of the Biden administration,
because we were actually able to ask things, It demonstrates how important it
is to install Democrats back into power in the House and expand their power in the Senate.
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Maybe even hopefully we could eliminate the filibuster so we didn't require
super majorities in order to pass things in the Senate. Right.
But the the importance of governing for the American people really means that
we need to put people into power in government who are serious about governing
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for their constituents. Absolutely right.
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Or a position in the state or a position in the federal government.
They need to really measure the character and seriousness of those people about governing.
Absolutely right. Yeah, character is extremely important.
And like you said, it all starts at the local and state level. It really does.
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I can't emphasize too much how important it is for people to show up and actually
cast a vote. Oh, you got that right.
And of course, we have some tremendous candidates on the local and state levels
in the Democratic Party this year, so.
We really do. And the look across the state of Texas and see that just talking
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about registered voters now,
not people who are eligible but fail to register, but just talking about registered voters,
the look at turnout rates and elections of registered voters below 70% is really shameful.
It really is. That's the word that was in my mind, too, shameful.
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So I tell people, you know, voting isn't just a right. It's a civic responsibility.
You got that right. People need to be responsible and still up in this.
Everybody who is a, quote, likely Democratic voter showed up and voted this
year, Texas would go blue.
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I like to be optimistic about things, and I think we will make a pretty strong showing this election.
I believe we can, but I believe we've got a lot of work to do between now and
November to make that happen. Yeah, that goes without saying.
All right, well, Bruce Carpenter, I want to thank you for this lively and informative
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discussion. I sure learned a lot.
Thanks for giving me a chance to rant a little bit.
Hey, no problem. We appreciate it. Bruce Carpenter, Harbor Bridge Ventures,
and you're, like you said earlier, you're also involved in some other things
like supporting Democratic candidates.
How else can people help support the cause?
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I would say there's several things that everybody can do.
Obviously, everybody should be informed and be ready to vote, have a plan.
I always tell people vote early. So when the early voting period opens,
please get to the poll as early as you can.
You never know what may happen on actual election day that could divert your attention.
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So voting early is a good idea. Good point.
I ask people to donate and contribute to and support the Democratic candidates
who are running up and down the ballot and get in touch with the campaigns and volunteer.
There are all kinds of positions available, whether it's making phone calls,
(43:02):
writing postcards, knocking on doors, answering questions.
There are all kinds of ways to get involved.
And locally here, we have some great organizations that can help those interested
in volunteering find a place in the campaigns that matches their skill with need.
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We have the Democrats in Comel County.
We have the Democratic Women of Comel County.
We have the League of Women Voters. There are many ways that people can get involved. all.
So please support our candidates and show up and vote.
That's the most important thing. Okay, Bruce, appreciate your time.
(43:47):
Thank you. Appreciate the opportunity. Great. Thanks a lot.
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Music.