December 11, 2025 • 25 mins
On this week's episode of Bills by the Numbers presented by FanDuel, Chris Brown and Steve Tasker take a look at the latest ESPN Power Index to see Buffalo's projected record and odds to win the Super Bowl. They then will dive into the latest with the AFC East and the division race. Steve is quizzed on Bills playoff history in The Numbers Game. Finally, the two give their answer to this week's One Burning Question, will a recent trend in the offense lead to a more balanced attack down the stretch and into the playoffs?
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome into Bills by the Numbers, where we let the
stats tell you where the Bills are at. We're presented
by FanDuel make every moment more. Coming up the ESPN
Football Power Index. As Buffalo in some interesting spots in
terms of projected record and odds to win the Super Bowl,
we'll investigate is it premature to dismiss the AFC East Race?
(00:20):
Steve has quizzed on Bill's playoff history, and we'll have
our one burning question.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
We have officially reached crunch time.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
What did you make a good decision? Joining us here
on Bills by the Numbers. He is Bill's Wall of
Famer Steve Tasker on Bill's play by playman Chris Brown,
and down the stretch. We come here in the twenty
twenty five regular season, four games to play in a
gigantic head to head matchup with the AFC East Division leader,
the Patriots in New England. Buffalo two games back of
(01:01):
New England with the week fifteen game in Foxborough and
three to play after that. Before we get to the
division race, Steve, we want to share with the ESPN
Football Power Index thinks of the current NFL landscape. It
has the rams atop the power Index as the strongest
team with a month left in the season. After that,
believe it or not, are the Chiefs, Packers, Lions, Seahawks.
(01:23):
To round out the top five. Buffalo comes in at seventh.
We should note Buffalo is the top ranked AFC team
currently in a playoff position. When it comes to projections
for the rest of the slate, the team expected to
finish with the best record is New England at thirteen
and four, followed by Denver, the Rams, Seattle, and the Bills.
(01:45):
Buffalo projected at about twelve and five. It's like eleven
point seven and five point whatever. If that projection plays out,
Buffalo would be the top wild card seed and they
would go to Pittsburgh, who are projected to win the
division in the AFC.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
North at nine and eight. Thoughts on that possible matchup, Steve.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
I'm okay with it.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
I like it.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Yeah, we match up well with them. They'll have a
chip on their shoulder because of the way the Bills
handled them in their building the last time, two hundred
and forty nine rushing yards. They're gonna come out with
a chip on their shoulder and I would anticipate that
being a really physical attitude game. But the Bills are
(02:31):
the better team and you got to go in thinking
that and believe in Yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
ESPN Analytics gives the Bills a ninety seven percent chance
to make the playoffs as they prepare for their Week
fifteen matchup with the Patriots. They give them just a
nineteen and a half percent chance to win the division,
which seems higher than we've initially seen projective.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
Aslow as it is, it seems high.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
We've calculated that if the Bills win their last four games,
including Sunday at New England obviously, in the Patriots lose
one o their game to a division opponent, either the
Jets in Week seventeen or the Dolphins in Week eighteen,
Buffalo could win their sixth straight division title. The other
scenario is if the Patriots lose three of their last four,
Buffalo could go three and one in their final four games,
(03:17):
provided one of those wins being against the Patriots, and still.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Win the division. So it's possible, but.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Probably unlikely, knowing New England has won ten in a
row coming into this weekend. But should the division title
hopes beshelled, Steve I.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Would say yes only because of it, not that it
couldn't happen. But because you've got bigger fish to fry around,
you gotta win this game, all right. Your goals have
shrunken from winning the Super Bowl, winning the AFC Championship
Division all that down to its game by game because
now a large measure of what you need to happen
is out of your control. So you can't think about it.
(03:53):
You got to win this game and then reevaluate after
everybody else in the league settles in their win loss column.
It's about tomorrow and then the next day. So you
don't you stop thinking about the division title unless you
had a chance to sew it up, so to speak.
Right now, you've got to continue to stack wins because
(04:17):
of the landscape. Everyone is so close at the top
of that that's the conference. You can't get caught up
in stuff you can't control, and right now the division's
out of your control.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Yeah, and that's the rub, right because I think the
general consensus is the Bills just have to keep on winning.
Pick your head up at the end and see where
you are. There's a very good you know, it's like
a ninety seven percent chands you're going to the playoffs,
So that much is known, but you have to keep
winning to ensure that. And then secondarily you can think about, okay,
(04:51):
as New England slipped up, you know, a couple of
weeks from now, whatever have they slipped up?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Is the door open now? You can worry about that then.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
But more importantly, the wild card race is tightly packed
as well, so you still control your own destiny in
that aspect, and because of that, you have to keep winning.
I mean, that's priority one right now. Just keep on
winning and hope it's good enough to if not win
the division, be the top wild card seed and play
(05:22):
the weakest division winner. So we'll have to see what happens.
It's interesting though, because coach McDermott has said in the
past with respect to the playoffs, win your division first
because that guarantees you a home playoff game. Obviously that
has fallen out of their control. To your point, Steve,
I don't know that winning the division should be dismissed,
(05:44):
especially if they win this week, to delay a division
title for New England, because if New England wins, it's over.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
They win the division.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
But I gotta believe there's a little added motivation this
week to not let that be a hat and T
shirt game for the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
Sure, but yeah, secondarily, you gotta win a period.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Yeah, if you win anyway, if.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
You lose, you may be the seven seed this week
and you're playing one of the best pass rushes in
the league next week and you got the World champions
in a week after that.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
You have to win. Yeah, you have to win.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
And that's whether the whether it was the division title
or the Patriots or not, you'd still have to This
is a game too where you've seen this team once
this year. They're a little bit of a different team
now than they were in Week five, as are the Bills,
so it's gonna be a little bit different matchup, completely
different venue obviously as well. Yeah, if you want to
(06:42):
have any semblance of having some control over your own destiny,
you gotta win.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
ESPN Analytics has the Bills with the third best odds
to make the divisional playoff at fifty four and a
half percent, behind only Denver and New England on the
AFC side of the ledger, and the third best odds
to make the AFC Title game, again behind Denver in
New England, but it's.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Not by much.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Denver with a forty percent chance to reach the AFC Championship,
New England with a thirty four percent chance, followed by
Buffalo at thirty percent. Knowing the Bills in one of
those scenarios is probably playing at Denver or at New England.
Do you have a preference, because there is the argument
about how hard it is to play a team the
third time, namely New England.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
Yeah, I might rather go on the road to Denver
rather than New England again. Playing a team for the
third times difficult. And Denver hasn't seen this team, and
they have played against a quarterback like this one.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Well not since last year's wildcard playoff.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Right, so they would they'd be up against It would
be different for them this run game. Denver's defense is
very good. But playing out in Denver, to be're honest,
I think the weather would be better in Denver than
it would be in New England. They get could be
they get three hundred and thirty days of sunshine in Denver.
(08:05):
It'd be altitude. But that they're sports science, you know,
will take care of that. I like the Denver matchup better.
Bo Knicks is not in the MVP race, Drake may is.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Yeah, that's what was gonna be the difference maker for me.
Bo Nicks has had trouble putting points on the board
for his offense on a consistent basis. There might be
some weeks where they make enough plays and they score
twenty four twenty seven points, but there are other weeks
where they're barely and struggling to get to twenty and
(08:40):
their defense has bailed them out because it's so good
at keeping opponents off the scoreboard. I think I would
be inclined to take that. Not only that Denver's defense,
if there is a soft underbelly, they have been victimized
to a great degree by backs and tight ends in
the passing game. And with the evolution of Buffalo's offense
(09:00):
here down the stretch and seeing backs and tight ends
playing more prominent roles in Buffalo's passing game, I kind
of like that matchup a little bit better than I
would playing New England a third time this season. As
for odds to make the Super Bowl, ESPN Analytics has
Buffalo with the second best odds to reach the ultimate
game in the AFC, behind only Denver, which is at
(09:22):
twenty two percent. Buffalo at sixteen and a half percent
to reach the Super Bowl. What do you make of
seeing them rated there?
Speaker 3 (09:31):
Well, surprise, there's been some conversation now with if Lamar Jackson,
Pat Mahomes and Joe Burrow are out of the playoffs,
you'll have the best player in the tournament.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
But Buffalo always does.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
There's only three games this year you can have even
a conversation about where the guys as good as the
guy you've got. It's Mahomes, it's Burrow, and it's Lamar Jackson,
and he beat he went three to zero against him.
But as we've seen in the playoffs, having the best
player isn't always the trump card. Yeah, you've got to
have more than just one guy, even if it is
(10:06):
the quarterback. You gotta have more guys helping him. You
got to have more guys that make plays. You gotta
have more guys that are elevating. But having said that, yeah,
I get why they like Buffalo, and it's because of
the guy taking snaps and secondarily they can run the ball.
So it's hard to bet against teams like that, particularly
(10:30):
a team that's proven over the course of a long
season that it is consistent and unless you keep a
lid on it, it will get you and Bills have
done it.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
I think part of the reason they're rated this high
is because some of those other elite quarterbacks it's looking
more and more like they're not gonna be in the tournament,
and because of the drop off from Josh to the
other quarterbacks that will be in on the AFC side
of the Ledger, I think that's why the analytics people
(10:58):
have this number for Buffalo to make the Super Bowl
at sixteen and a half percent. That's higher than I
can remember it being in previous years. Last year, when
they were thirteen and four, it wasn't that high, But
it's because there were other teams like the Chiefs in
the tournament. So it's really interesting to see that number
as high as it is, and I wonder if it's
because some of those other teams were used to seeing
(11:20):
in the postseason may not be there.
Speaker 3 (11:22):
We still have four games to play as well, so
there's a lot at this point. Last season, at that point,
Joe Burrow looked like he was going to make a
run at the playoffs, right, So yeah, it's a different
atmosphere and it may change twice over the next four weeks.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
When it comes to winning the Super Bowl. Buffalo again
has the second best odds among AFC teams, again behind Denver.
Broncos are given a ten percent chance, Bills an eight
percent chance.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
The NFC teams, though, in.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
Terms of odds, are way ahead Rams at eighteen point
one percent, Packers at nine point six, Seahawks at eight
point eight. How hard is it to see that far
down the road, knowing how much has to happen between
now and then.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
Yeah, I mean, projections are nice.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
Projections are nice. But the difference is that the Broncos
and the Bills have more significant flaws than apparently the
Seahawks and the Rams and the Packers do both. All
of those teams, Rams, Packers, Seahawks have defenses that are
playing at a higher level than Buffalo's is and their
offenses the Seahawks, Packers, and Rams are playing better than
(12:28):
the Broncos offense. So those three NFC teams seem more
well rounded than the either the Bills or the Broncos
at this point, And at this point I don't know why.
But at this point I don't know. Perhaps it's because
of their weak schedule they played. Nobody has that much
faith in the New England Patriots to overcome a really
(12:51):
good team. So I think I see why. You know,
the the NFC teams are given the edge there by far,
it's because they're more well rounded and those teams have
been tested more often than the Patriots, the Broncos Patriots
of the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
Yeah, I do find it interesting. I almost feel like
there has been a little bit of a power shift
between the conferences. The NFC used to be the team
with one, two, maybe three teams that could realistically get
to the Super Bowl, and really when you kind of
got down to brass tacks, you can only see one
(13:33):
or two maybe, And now I think there's three or
four players that could legitimately make the Super Bowl on
the NFC side, and all of them might be stronger
than whoever represents the AFC, because it seems as though
the AFC teams, even some of the best ones in
terms of record, have some flaws, flaws that could cost
(13:53):
them in the ultimate game. So it just two years
ago the AFC was the power conference by far, and
I think we're seeing a shift to some degree. And
that's what makes it interesting to see the Bills as
the current sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture with
some of the best odds among AFC clubs to win
(14:13):
the whole Enchilada. Does it illustrate to you how wide
open the AFC seems to be this year.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
Yeah, you've got team, and Buffalo is probably as big
a culprit of this as anybody. They dropped some games
they shouldn't have dropped, most notably to the Miami Dolphins
and the New England Patriots. They turned it over three
times of their own volition. Against the Patriots, Keon just
drops it inside the fifteen yard line of the Bills.
It takes away an opportunity for Josh Allen the offense
(14:40):
to move it and also gives points right away to
the Patriots, which they take advantage of and the game
they win in a last second field goal. That kind
of stuff happened in Miami. The Bills go down and
absolutely show up flat, did not play well and didn't
even look like the same team, and lost by double
digits to a bad Dolphins team, or at least at
(15:02):
that moment they were bad. So that's why the AFC
is wide open. You've got teams like Buffalo who just
can't get it together on a week to week basis.
Save the New England Patriots, and I still believe there's
some narrative out there that Drake May is a beneficiary
of a Josh McDaniel's ability to manipulate an offense from
(15:24):
the bench with a good with at least a.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Passion giving on as much pre snap information as possible.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
So he's Josh McDaniels as much deserves as much credit
as the success of Drake May, as Drake May does
well in that narrative. So they're not giving Drake May
the credit for carrying that team with solid play as
they are other teams. So you take you chop off
the Patriots, you chop off Josh Allen the Bills because
they're too inconsistent. That drops everybody down, because the Baltimore
(15:52):
Ravens are nowhere to be found, the Kansas City Chiefs
are nowhere to be found.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
Yeah, it's a wash more inconsistent than the Bills are.
Speaker 1 (16:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
So you look at the conference that all the the
most notable teams that we had huge expectations at the
beginning of the season and they're riding roller coasters. Yeah,
it's easy to see that the more consistent and well
rounded teams are in the NFC this year, even if
their quarterbacks aren't as good, with the exception of Matt Stafford.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Who's probably the leader in the clubhouse for NFL MVP.
We turn our attention now to the Numbers game, where
Steve will be quizzed on Bills playoff history.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
Let's do it. Question number one, there are.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
Three Bills players who hold the record for most interceptions
in a playoff game. Two of them were your teammates.
Can you name two of those three Bills players?
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Mark Kelso, it is not Mark.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Henry Jones.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
It is not Henry Jones.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
Uh, Nate Odams, no one, Nate Well, I have no
idea that.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
Come on, It's two interceptions. That's the record in a
single playoff game. Then you think of two teammates who
had two interceptions in a playoff game.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
Please be no.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
Here.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
You just pull out a roster. Yeah, I thought this
was going to be a layup. Jeff Burris, not Jeff Burrs.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
So I'll give you the non teammate of yours, which
I didn't expect you to get because I wouldn't have
gotten it either, Bill Simpson in nineteen eighty one against
the Jets. The other one was in nineteen ninety hold
on against the Raiders. Oh, Darryl Tally, Daryl Talley who
(18:00):
had two picks there? And the other one was in
nineteen ninety two against the Chiefs John Hagy.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
It was Kirby Jackson. Oh, who had two.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
I wouldn't have gotten Kirby.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
Good for him, though, good for him. Question number two,
who has the longest run from scrimmage in team playoff history?
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Josh Allen?
Speaker 2 (18:29):
That is correct. It is Josh Allen.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Two yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers browning. And I've been
having the conversation. Everybody was saying, yeah, Josh is forty
yard touchdown, it's the longest of his career, and we're like, oh, no,
it's not longest in the regular longest in the regular season.
But that doesn't That's not his career, So shut up
with that, Come on, get it right.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Question number three, who has the most touchdown receptions.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
In a playoff game and team playoff.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
History for the Bill Andre Reid.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
He was incorrect.
Speaker 1 (18:55):
Really he had three in the comeback game. But someone's
done him one better, Stevie Johnson.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Not Stevie Johnson.
Speaker 1 (19:03):
He never made the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
Poor guy.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
Eric Moles not Eric Moles, although he has the record
for most receiving yards in a playoff game with two
hundred and forty in Miami at ninety nine wildcard James Lofton.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
Not James Lofton. It's more recent than that.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Steve oh Oh, Gabe Davis, Gabe Davis four against the
Chiefs in twenty twenty one. That was dumb. I should
have got that.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
Don't beat yourself.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
I should have got that.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
And question number four, who has the longest kick return
in a playoff game in Bill's team history?
Speaker 2 (19:42):
Me?
Speaker 1 (19:43):
That is correct, kids, you sixty seven yards against the
Raiders that I didn't score on in nineteen ninety four.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Guy pushed me on, Oh, that's really cold. If I
could find it, if I could get the ball out,
I couldn't there. All right, Well, I'm glad you got
that one. I would have been a little worried. It
might have been catastrophic.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
Get that one hot, and that one that's you'd had
to come up with a new buzzer for that one.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Yeah, it would have been.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
I think it might have just been that old trumpet
wmwomp oh yeah, or a wampwamp. Bill's fans get in
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Speaker 2 (20:32):
Time now for our one burning question.
Speaker 1 (20:36):
We've seen the Bills passing game struggle to get major
production from their receivers this season, but we have seen
some big games of late in the passing attack from
the backs and tight ends. Could making consistent use of
them in the passing game make Buffalo a more well
rounded offense down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Well, absolutely.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
If you've got a group of if that's where you
want to focus, you're passing game, and you become good
at it, be good at it.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
Go.
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Teams are going to have to contend with it, and
they'll come up with new ways, in different ways to
combat it, and you'll have to have answers, but they
have to have answers for you. If you're good at it,
that's what add it to the recipe. You've got to
use it to win games. And if having haws, knocks
and kincad on the field a lot more, with two backs,
(21:25):
one back, whatever the combination it is, you got to
do it. And this last game certainly showed that if
you do have a deficiency in covering a certain element
of an offense, they've got the horses to take advantage
of it. So yeah, absolutely, and I don't have a
problem with it at all. No, it doesn't make you
less of a good offense. It doesn't make nothing. It
doesn't say anything about your ability to win games. It's
(21:47):
just different.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
I would like to see now what happened last week
happened against the defense that is given up more production
to tight ends than any other team in the league.
But the backs were involved too. You know, you had
the lead out passed the cook that went up the sideline,
set up first in goal, and there was another one
down the right sideline that unfortunately.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
Came back on a penalty.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
But all that being said, I want to see how
that approach works against a better defense like New England
this weekend, for example, Can you have the same tight
end slash running back success in the passing game against
the defense that's, you know, a high quality unit like
the Patriots, similar to what you saw last week against
(22:30):
the Bengals. They did it against a bad defense. Now
let's see if it's fruitful against a better, more well
rounded defense.
Speaker 3 (22:36):
I'll say that it certainly lured the Bills into giving
it a try. I don't know that there are other
teams who have tight ends that are as productive as Knox,
Kincaid and Hawes or versative or yeah, and both in
the run and the pass. So yeah, I'm saying, let's
flesh that part of our offense out a little bit.
(22:56):
See if we can get some more production out of it,
either splitting those guys out and going in running the
football out of a condensed formation, or then when they
start to go heavy, spread them out and match their
defensive personnel with a little bit more of a spread
formation if they go heavy.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
Our closing figure deals with touchdown production in the passing game.
To dovetail off the topic we were just discussing, Shakir,
Coleman and Shavers have accounted for nine receiving touchdowns this season.
Dalton Kinkaid, Dawson, Knox, Jackson, Hawes have also accounted for
nine receiving touchdowns this season, and when you compare those
(23:35):
three receivers to Buffalo's three tight ends, the Bills tight
ends have scored the same number of touchdowns on thirty
five fewer receptions one hundred and five catches for the
three receivers, just seventy for the tight ends. It makes
you wonder where Buffalo's highest scoring efficiency might lie going forward.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
Something to think about.
Speaker 3 (23:59):
It is, but I'll say this, it's a function two
of their ability to move the football on the ground
efficiently with the running game and stay on the field.
Their time of possession is still a thing. They still
possessed the ball a ton, and they get down into
the red zone a bunch, and that means big targets
tight windows. We saw this last week two touchdowns to
(24:20):
the tight ends. Haws and Kincaid. Tight Ends are hard
to handle down there for smaller dbs, so it makes
a lot of sense that when they get down there,
they're throwing to the big guys.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
That'll do it.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
For this episode, be sure to subscribe on whatever podcast
platform you use so you know when our next episode
is released, or watch us on the Bills YouTube channel,
Because when you need to know about the Bills, you
need to check bills by the numbers, received task around
Chris Brown, thanks for listening, well, catch you next time.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
Everybody
Welcome into Bills by the Numbers, where we let the
stats tell you where the Bills are at. We're presented
by FanDuel make every moment more. Coming up the ESPN
Football Power Index. As Buffalo in some interesting spots in
terms of projected record and odds to win the Super Bowl,
we'll investigate is it premature to dismiss the AFC East Race?
(00:20):
Steve has quizzed on Bill's playoff history, and we'll have
our one burning question.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
We have officially reached crunch time.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
What did you make a good decision? Joining us here
on Bills by the Numbers. He is Bill's Wall of
Famer Steve Tasker on Bill's play by playman Chris Brown,
and down the stretch. We come here in the twenty
twenty five regular season, four games to play in a
gigantic head to head matchup with the AFC East Division leader,
the Patriots in New England. Buffalo two games back of
(01:01):
New England with the week fifteen game in Foxborough and
three to play after that. Before we get to the
division race, Steve, we want to share with the ESPN
Football Power Index thinks of the current NFL landscape. It
has the rams atop the power Index as the strongest
team with a month left in the season. After that,
believe it or not, are the Chiefs, Packers, Lions, Seahawks.
(01:23):
To round out the top five. Buffalo comes in at seventh.
We should note Buffalo is the top ranked AFC team
currently in a playoff position. When it comes to projections
for the rest of the slate, the team expected to
finish with the best record is New England at thirteen
and four, followed by Denver, the Rams, Seattle, and the Bills.
(01:45):
Buffalo projected at about twelve and five. It's like eleven
point seven and five point whatever. If that projection plays out,
Buffalo would be the top wild card seed and they
would go to Pittsburgh, who are projected to win the
division in the AFC.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
North at nine and eight. Thoughts on that possible matchup, Steve.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
I'm okay with it.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
I like it.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Yeah, we match up well with them. They'll have a
chip on their shoulder because of the way the Bills
handled them in their building the last time, two hundred
and forty nine rushing yards. They're gonna come out with
a chip on their shoulder and I would anticipate that
being a really physical attitude game. But the Bills are
(02:31):
the better team and you got to go in thinking
that and believe in Yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
ESPN Analytics gives the Bills a ninety seven percent chance
to make the playoffs as they prepare for their Week
fifteen matchup with the Patriots. They give them just a
nineteen and a half percent chance to win the division,
which seems higher than we've initially seen projective.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
Aslow as it is, it seems high.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
We've calculated that if the Bills win their last four games,
including Sunday at New England obviously, in the Patriots lose
one o their game to a division opponent, either the
Jets in Week seventeen or the Dolphins in Week eighteen,
Buffalo could win their sixth straight division title. The other
scenario is if the Patriots lose three of their last four,
Buffalo could go three and one in their final four games,
(03:17):
provided one of those wins being against the Patriots, and still.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Win the division. So it's possible, but.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Probably unlikely, knowing New England has won ten in a
row coming into this weekend. But should the division title
hopes beshelled, Steve I.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Would say yes only because of it, not that it
couldn't happen. But because you've got bigger fish to fry around,
you gotta win this game, all right. Your goals have
shrunken from winning the Super Bowl, winning the AFC Championship
Division all that down to its game by game because
now a large measure of what you need to happen
is out of your control. So you can't think about it.
(03:53):
You got to win this game and then reevaluate after
everybody else in the league settles in their win loss column.
It's about tomorrow and then the next day. So you
don't you stop thinking about the division title unless you
had a chance to sew it up, so to speak.
Right now, you've got to continue to stack wins because
(04:17):
of the landscape. Everyone is so close at the top
of that that's the conference. You can't get caught up
in stuff you can't control, and right now the division's
out of your control.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Yeah, and that's the rub, right because I think the
general consensus is the Bills just have to keep on winning.
Pick your head up at the end and see where
you are. There's a very good you know, it's like
a ninety seven percent chands you're going to the playoffs,
So that much is known, but you have to keep
winning to ensure that. And then secondarily you can think about, okay,
(04:51):
as New England slipped up, you know, a couple of
weeks from now, whatever have they slipped up?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Is the door open now? You can worry about that then.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
But more importantly, the wild card race is tightly packed
as well, so you still control your own destiny in
that aspect, and because of that, you have to keep winning.
I mean, that's priority one right now. Just keep on
winning and hope it's good enough to if not win
the division, be the top wild card seed and play
(05:22):
the weakest division winner. So we'll have to see what happens.
It's interesting though, because coach McDermott has said in the
past with respect to the playoffs, win your division first
because that guarantees you a home playoff game. Obviously that
has fallen out of their control. To your point, Steve,
I don't know that winning the division should be dismissed,
(05:44):
especially if they win this week, to delay a division
title for New England, because if New England wins, it's over.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
They win the division.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
But I gotta believe there's a little added motivation this
week to not let that be a hat and T
shirt game for the Patriots.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
Sure, but yeah, secondarily, you gotta win a period.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Yeah, if you win anyway, if.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
You lose, you may be the seven seed this week
and you're playing one of the best pass rushes in
the league next week and you got the World champions
in a week after that.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
You have to win. Yeah, you have to win.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
And that's whether the whether it was the division title
or the Patriots or not, you'd still have to This
is a game too where you've seen this team once
this year. They're a little bit of a different team
now than they were in Week five, as are the Bills,
so it's gonna be a little bit different matchup, completely
different venue obviously as well. Yeah, if you want to
(06:42):
have any semblance of having some control over your own destiny,
you gotta win.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
ESPN Analytics has the Bills with the third best odds
to make the divisional playoff at fifty four and a
half percent, behind only Denver and New England on the
AFC side of the ledger, and the third best odds
to make the AFC Title game, again behind Denver in
New England, but it's.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Not by much.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Denver with a forty percent chance to reach the AFC Championship,
New England with a thirty four percent chance, followed by
Buffalo at thirty percent. Knowing the Bills in one of
those scenarios is probably playing at Denver or at New England.
Do you have a preference, because there is the argument
about how hard it is to play a team the
third time, namely New England.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
Yeah, I might rather go on the road to Denver
rather than New England again. Playing a team for the
third times difficult. And Denver hasn't seen this team, and
they have played against a quarterback like this one.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Well not since last year's wildcard playoff.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Right, so they would they'd be up against It would
be different for them this run game. Denver's defense is
very good. But playing out in Denver, to be're honest,
I think the weather would be better in Denver than
it would be in New England. They get could be
they get three hundred and thirty days of sunshine in Denver.
(08:05):
It'd be altitude. But that they're sports science, you know,
will take care of that. I like the Denver matchup better.
Bo Knicks is not in the MVP race, Drake may is.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Yeah, that's what was gonna be the difference maker for me.
Bo Nicks has had trouble putting points on the board
for his offense on a consistent basis. There might be
some weeks where they make enough plays and they score
twenty four twenty seven points, but there are other weeks
where they're barely and struggling to get to twenty and
(08:40):
their defense has bailed them out because it's so good
at keeping opponents off the scoreboard. I think I would
be inclined to take that. Not only that Denver's defense,
if there is a soft underbelly, they have been victimized
to a great degree by backs and tight ends in
the passing game. And with the evolution of Buffalo's offense
(09:00):
here down the stretch and seeing backs and tight ends
playing more prominent roles in Buffalo's passing game, I kind
of like that matchup a little bit better than I
would playing New England a third time this season. As
for odds to make the Super Bowl, ESPN Analytics has
Buffalo with the second best odds to reach the ultimate
game in the AFC, behind only Denver, which is at
(09:22):
twenty two percent. Buffalo at sixteen and a half percent
to reach the Super Bowl. What do you make of
seeing them rated there?
Speaker 3 (09:31):
Well, surprise, there's been some conversation now with if Lamar Jackson,
Pat Mahomes and Joe Burrow are out of the playoffs,
you'll have the best player in the tournament.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
But Buffalo always does.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
There's only three games this year you can have even
a conversation about where the guys as good as the
guy you've got. It's Mahomes, it's Burrow, and it's Lamar Jackson,
and he beat he went three to zero against him.
But as we've seen in the playoffs, having the best
player isn't always the trump card. Yeah, you've got to
have more than just one guy, even if it is
(10:06):
the quarterback. You gotta have more guys helping him. You
got to have more guys that make plays. You gotta
have more guys that are elevating. But having said that, yeah,
I get why they like Buffalo, and it's because of
the guy taking snaps and secondarily they can run the ball.
So it's hard to bet against teams like that, particularly
(10:30):
a team that's proven over the course of a long
season that it is consistent and unless you keep a
lid on it, it will get you and Bills have
done it.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
I think part of the reason they're rated this high
is because some of those other elite quarterbacks it's looking
more and more like they're not gonna be in the tournament,
and because of the drop off from Josh to the
other quarterbacks that will be in on the AFC side
of the Ledger, I think that's why the analytics people
(10:58):
have this number for Buffalo to make the Super Bowl
at sixteen and a half percent. That's higher than I
can remember it being in previous years. Last year, when
they were thirteen and four, it wasn't that high, But
it's because there were other teams like the Chiefs in
the tournament. So it's really interesting to see that number
as high as it is, and I wonder if it's
because some of those other teams were used to seeing
(11:20):
in the postseason may not be there.
Speaker 3 (11:22):
We still have four games to play as well, so
there's a lot at this point. Last season, at that point,
Joe Burrow looked like he was going to make a
run at the playoffs, right, So yeah, it's a different
atmosphere and it may change twice over the next four weeks.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
When it comes to winning the Super Bowl. Buffalo again
has the second best odds among AFC teams, again behind Denver.
Broncos are given a ten percent chance, Bills an eight
percent chance.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
The NFC teams, though, in.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
Terms of odds, are way ahead Rams at eighteen point
one percent, Packers at nine point six, Seahawks at eight
point eight. How hard is it to see that far
down the road, knowing how much has to happen between
now and then.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
Yeah, I mean, projections are nice.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
Projections are nice. But the difference is that the Broncos
and the Bills have more significant flaws than apparently the
Seahawks and the Rams and the Packers do both. All
of those teams, Rams, Packers, Seahawks have defenses that are
playing at a higher level than Buffalo's is and their
offenses the Seahawks, Packers, and Rams are playing better than
(12:28):
the Broncos offense. So those three NFC teams seem more
well rounded than the either the Bills or the Broncos
at this point, And at this point I don't know why.
But at this point I don't know. Perhaps it's because
of their weak schedule they played. Nobody has that much
faith in the New England Patriots to overcome a really
(12:51):
good team. So I think I see why. You know,
the the NFC teams are given the edge there by far,
it's because they're more well rounded and those teams have
been tested more often than the Patriots, the Broncos Patriots
of the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
Yeah, I do find it interesting. I almost feel like
there has been a little bit of a power shift
between the conferences. The NFC used to be the team
with one, two, maybe three teams that could realistically get
to the Super Bowl, and really when you kind of
got down to brass tacks, you can only see one
(13:33):
or two maybe, And now I think there's three or
four players that could legitimately make the Super Bowl on
the NFC side, and all of them might be stronger
than whoever represents the AFC, because it seems as though
the AFC teams, even some of the best ones in
terms of record, have some flaws, flaws that could cost
(13:53):
them in the ultimate game. So it just two years
ago the AFC was the power conference by far, and
I think we're seeing a shift to some degree. And
that's what makes it interesting to see the Bills as
the current sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture with
some of the best odds among AFC clubs to win
(14:13):
the whole Enchilada. Does it illustrate to you how wide
open the AFC seems to be this year.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
Yeah, you've got team, and Buffalo is probably as big
a culprit of this as anybody. They dropped some games
they shouldn't have dropped, most notably to the Miami Dolphins
and the New England Patriots. They turned it over three
times of their own volition. Against the Patriots, Keon just
drops it inside the fifteen yard line of the Bills.
It takes away an opportunity for Josh Allen the offense
(14:40):
to move it and also gives points right away to
the Patriots, which they take advantage of and the game
they win in a last second field goal. That kind
of stuff happened in Miami. The Bills go down and
absolutely show up flat, did not play well and didn't
even look like the same team, and lost by double
digits to a bad Dolphins team, or at least at
(15:02):
that moment they were bad. So that's why the AFC
is wide open. You've got teams like Buffalo who just
can't get it together on a week to week basis.
Save the New England Patriots, and I still believe there's
some narrative out there that Drake May is a beneficiary
of a Josh McDaniel's ability to manipulate an offense from
(15:24):
the bench with a good with at least a.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Passion giving on as much pre snap information as possible.
Speaker 3 (15:29):
So he's Josh McDaniels as much deserves as much credit
as the success of Drake May, as Drake May does
well in that narrative. So they're not giving Drake May
the credit for carrying that team with solid play as
they are other teams. So you take you chop off
the Patriots, you chop off Josh Allen the Bills because
they're too inconsistent. That drops everybody down, because the Baltimore
(15:52):
Ravens are nowhere to be found, the Kansas City Chiefs
are nowhere to be found.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
Yeah, it's a wash more inconsistent than the Bills are.
Speaker 1 (16:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (16:02):
So you look at the conference that all the the
most notable teams that we had huge expectations at the
beginning of the season and they're riding roller coasters. Yeah,
it's easy to see that the more consistent and well
rounded teams are in the NFC this year, even if
their quarterbacks aren't as good, with the exception of Matt Stafford.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
Who's probably the leader in the clubhouse for NFL MVP.
We turn our attention now to the Numbers game, where
Steve will be quizzed on Bills playoff history.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
Let's do it. Question number one, there are.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
Three Bills players who hold the record for most interceptions
in a playoff game. Two of them were your teammates.
Can you name two of those three Bills players?
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Mark Kelso, it is not Mark.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Henry Jones.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
It is not Henry Jones.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
Uh, Nate Odams, no one, Nate Well, I have no
idea that.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
Come on, It's two interceptions. That's the record in a
single playoff game. Then you think of two teammates who
had two interceptions in a playoff game.
Speaker 3 (17:20):
Please be no.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
Here.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
You just pull out a roster. Yeah, I thought this
was going to be a layup. Jeff Burris, not Jeff Burrs.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
So I'll give you the non teammate of yours, which
I didn't expect you to get because I wouldn't have
gotten it either, Bill Simpson in nineteen eighty one against
the Jets. The other one was in nineteen ninety hold
on against the Raiders. Oh, Darryl Tally, Daryl Talley who
(18:00):
had two picks there? And the other one was in
nineteen ninety two against the Chiefs John Hagy.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
It was Kirby Jackson. Oh, who had two.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
I wouldn't have gotten Kirby.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
Good for him, though, good for him. Question number two,
who has the longest run from scrimmage in team playoff history?
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Josh Allen?
Speaker 2 (18:29):
That is correct. It is Josh Allen.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Two yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers browning. And I've been
having the conversation. Everybody was saying, yeah, Josh is forty
yard touchdown, it's the longest of his career, and we're like, oh, no,
it's not longest in the regular longest in the regular season.
But that doesn't That's not his career, So shut up
with that, Come on, get it right.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Question number three, who has the most touchdown receptions.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
In a playoff game and team playoff.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
History for the Bill Andre Reid.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
He was incorrect.
Speaker 1 (18:55):
Really he had three in the comeback game. But someone's
done him one better, Stevie Johnson.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Not Stevie Johnson.
Speaker 1 (19:03):
He never made the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
Poor guy.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
Eric Moles not Eric Moles, although he has the record
for most receiving yards in a playoff game with two
hundred and forty in Miami at ninety nine wildcard James Lofton.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
Not James Lofton. It's more recent than that.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Steve oh Oh, Gabe Davis, Gabe Davis four against the
Chiefs in twenty twenty one. That was dumb. I should
have got that.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
Don't beat yourself.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
I should have got that.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
And question number four, who has the longest kick return
in a playoff game in Bill's team history?
Speaker 2 (19:42):
Me?
Speaker 1 (19:43):
That is correct, kids, you sixty seven yards against the
Raiders that I didn't score on in nineteen ninety four.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Guy pushed me on, Oh, that's really cold. If I
could find it, if I could get the ball out,
I couldn't there. All right, Well, I'm glad you got
that one. I would have been a little worried. It
might have been catastrophic.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
Get that one hot, and that one that's you'd had
to come up with a new buzzer for that one.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Yeah, it would have been.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
I think it might have just been that old trumpet
wmwomp oh yeah, or a wampwamp. Bill's fans get in
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Speaker 2 (20:32):
Time now for our one burning question.
Speaker 1 (20:36):
We've seen the Bills passing game struggle to get major
production from their receivers this season, but we have seen
some big games of late in the passing attack from
the backs and tight ends. Could making consistent use of
them in the passing game make Buffalo a more well
rounded offense down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
Well, absolutely.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
If you've got a group of if that's where you
want to focus, you're passing game, and you become good
at it, be good at it.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
Go.
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Teams are going to have to contend with it, and
they'll come up with new ways, in different ways to
combat it, and you'll have to have answers, but they
have to have answers for you. If you're good at it,
that's what add it to the recipe. You've got to
use it to win games. And if having haws, knocks
and kincad on the field a lot more, with two backs,
(21:25):
one back, whatever the combination it is, you got to
do it. And this last game certainly showed that if
you do have a deficiency in covering a certain element
of an offense, they've got the horses to take advantage
of it. So yeah, absolutely, and I don't have a
problem with it at all. No, it doesn't make you
less of a good offense. It doesn't make nothing. It
doesn't say anything about your ability to win games. It's
(21:47):
just different.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
I would like to see now what happened last week
happened against the defense that is given up more production
to tight ends than any other team in the league.
But the backs were involved too. You know, you had
the lead out passed the cook that went up the sideline,
set up first in goal, and there was another one
down the right sideline that unfortunately.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
Came back on a penalty.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
But all that being said, I want to see how
that approach works against a better defense like New England
this weekend, for example, Can you have the same tight
end slash running back success in the passing game against
the defense that's, you know, a high quality unit like
the Patriots, similar to what you saw last week against
(22:30):
the Bengals. They did it against a bad defense. Now
let's see if it's fruitful against a better, more well
rounded defense.
Speaker 3 (22:36):
I'll say that it certainly lured the Bills into giving
it a try. I don't know that there are other
teams who have tight ends that are as productive as Knox,
Kincaid and Hawes or versative or yeah, and both in
the run and the pass. So yeah, I'm saying, let's
flesh that part of our offense out a little bit.
(22:56):
See if we can get some more production out of it,
either splitting those guys out and going in running the
football out of a condensed formation, or then when they
start to go heavy, spread them out and match their
defensive personnel with a little bit more of a spread
formation if they go heavy.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
Our closing figure deals with touchdown production in the passing game.
To dovetail off the topic we were just discussing, Shakir,
Coleman and Shavers have accounted for nine receiving touchdowns this season.
Dalton Kinkaid, Dawson, Knox, Jackson, Hawes have also accounted for
nine receiving touchdowns this season, and when you compare those
(23:35):
three receivers to Buffalo's three tight ends, the Bills tight
ends have scored the same number of touchdowns on thirty
five fewer receptions one hundred and five catches for the
three receivers, just seventy for the tight ends. It makes
you wonder where Buffalo's highest scoring efficiency might lie going forward.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
Something to think about.
Speaker 3 (23:59):
It is, but I'll say this, it's a function two
of their ability to move the football on the ground
efficiently with the running game and stay on the field.
Their time of possession is still a thing. They still
possessed the ball a ton, and they get down into
the red zone a bunch, and that means big targets
tight windows. We saw this last week two touchdowns to
(24:20):
the tight ends. Haws and Kincaid. Tight Ends are hard
to handle down there for smaller dbs, so it makes
a lot of sense that when they get down there,
they're throwing to the big guys.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
That'll do it.
Speaker 1 (24:32):
For this episode, be sure to subscribe on whatever podcast
platform you use so you know when our next episode
is released, or watch us on the Bills YouTube channel,
Because when you need to know about the Bills, you
need to check bills by the numbers, received task around
Chris Brown, thanks for listening, well, catch you next time.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
Everybody
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