November 13, 2025 • 31 mins
On this week's episode of Bills by the Numbers presented by FanDuel, Chris Brown and Steve Tasker take an overall look at the Bills run game production. They discuss whether the team is leaning on that area too much and if they need to adjust to more passing on first down. The two then weigh in on if the offense should adjust to a more possession controlled approach to help out an injury depleted defense. Steve is quizzed on Bills run-pass history in The Numbers Game. Finally, the two give their answer to this week's One Burning Question, do the Bills have to win the next four games to keep pace in winning the division?
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hey, you're back, Thanks for checking in on Bills by
the Numbers, where we let the stats tell you where
the Bills are at. We're presented by FANDU will make
every moment more on the way the Bills of the
number one rushing team in football. But have they leaned
too far into the run game? We'll take a look
and should the state of the defense's health way into
the kind of game that's called on offense. Steve is
(00:22):
quizzed on Bills run versus past history, and we'll have
our one burning question schools in ring the bell, Thanks
(00:44):
for attending.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
The latest position of Bills by the Numbers. He's Wall
of Famer Steve.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Tasker on Bills play by playman Chris Brown, and we've
all seen how successful Buffalo can be offensively when their
run game is humming. Even though there have been a
couple of down days this season, the Bills are the
number one rushing team in football. James Cook has been
in contention for the rushing title this season since the start,
(01:09):
and that success has convinced the offensive staff to lean
way in on the run game, particularly on first down.
After nine games played, the Bills run the ball on
first down fifty eight and a half percent of the time,
and they're eighth and yards per carry average on first
down at four point nine, just a tenth off their
(01:29):
season average of five yards even, which is tied for
third best.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
In the league.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
So in these three things, we begin with this question.
While that is good production, should the Bills be running
that much on first down?
Speaker 3 (01:46):
Steve? I think it should be more balanced. I wish
they'd do a little bit more. Now. I get it.
You get into a game and you snap off a
six yard run on the first play of the series. Yeah,
I don't have a problem with that. But the problem
is if it doesn't work, I think that it's well,
it's like an incomplete pass right or even so a
loss of one. Right now, it's second and eleven. You
(02:10):
got to do what it takes to win that game.
I get that, And every game is different. So some games, yeah,
run it every first down, But when you start stepping
back and looking at the big picture, like we're doing
on Bills by the numbers, it's like, Man, I don't know,
I'd like to see John Now. They did that against Miami.
They came out in that first series and start throwing
it around and we're unproductive. So I get you know
(02:32):
how you react like that and say, now we're going
to start handing it off. But man, I'm telling you,
I'm I think balance is the best and I get it.
Sixty forty is not out of whack.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Yeah, it's fifty eight and a half to write forty two,
so forty one and a half.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
But I think situation, I think it more depends on
the situational spot of where you are in the game,
what the game plan is, who the opponent is. So
I'm you know, the big pictures, Yeah, you'd like to
see it fifty to fifty, but each game is an
animal on it onto its own. So I'm I think
you gotta trust what they see on film and what
(03:10):
they think they can do. Now, you gotta know our
offensive line is the big is a dependable asset on
this offense, lean on and out of the game. I'm
okay with that. But in the big picture, you want
to see it fifty to fifty.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Right, I think it's it's vacillated too far towards running
the ball on first down. And look, it might be
a byproduct, Steve of the disjointed nature of the pass game.
This offensive staff may not trust the passing game enough
right now to get them consistent yards on first down
(03:46):
to keep them on schedule.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
They might just.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Simply trust the run game more. Where As we said,
as a team, they average five yards to carry, so
they just might say, well, the heck with it. The
run game works well for us, we try it. Let's
run it on first down, get our five yards, and
figure out the rest later. But when another team, an
opponent is keying on that because your tendencies say you're
(04:10):
gonna do that, suddenly you're less effective and you've got
to pivot. And I think they're at a point now
where they have to pivot. I'm not saying become you know,
the throw it more than anybody else in the league
on first down, but I think we've seen the benefits
of Josh under center play action on first down this season.
(04:31):
It's worked well for them, and I think there's nothing
wrong with lining him up in the shotgun on first
down on occasion with James Cook next to him and
doing a read option fake and then throwing the football.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
There may be something to the fact that about their
lack of confidence in their own throwing passing game. Even
with Josh pulling the trigger. They also may say, listen,
we're going to keep leaning into it because it forces
the defense to throw eight in the box and that
gives us a chance to be more successful it. Certainly,
(05:04):
certainly the Dolphins did that. They throw it, brought out
three defensive alignment, three defensive tackles, they packed the line
of scrimmage, and it worked for them.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Yeah, they do play fifty front. They do do that.
They did that in the first meeting.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
And the Bills, I think, I think the Bills are
fine with that. They're going to run into that once
in a while. They don't they don't care. They can.
They feel like they can get it done a little better.
But what gets in the way of that. The Bills
are not uncomfortable in close games. But when you puke
the ball up twice going in in three different times
and you turn it over and there in that gets
(05:36):
in the way of a close game and all of
a sudden, it's not close. And when you're playing your
recipe is not that doesn't have that big a margin forever,
and that's the problem. Yeah, when you play that low
margin for error type style and you cough up the football,
you're gonna end up on the wrong end of those sometimes,
so it might require a shift in thinking, especially if
(05:56):
this team is going to be coughing up the ball
the way they had, I mean eight turnovers in their
three losses. This team had eight turnovers all season last year.
We knew it was going to We knew that was
not sustainable. You're not gonna go year over year lead
the league or have the fewest turnovers in the league.
That's just simply not gonna happen, purely by happenstance and
(06:18):
the law of averages. And now seeing the way they've
coughed up the football of late, you may need to
shift your thinking a little bit and try to widen
your margin for error.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
And the best way to do that might be to
throw the football right.
Speaker 3 (06:31):
They're not I mean they're not. They're not like leading
the league in turnovers, but no stretch. No, But in
their losses it's a problem, and I think that shows
you where their margin of error is. As long as
they mind their p's and q's and don't put the
ball on the ground, they're still very tough to beat.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
Yes, but in the three games where they have had
two turnovers or more, all losses, they've averaged fifteen points
per game. In the other game games this season, they
are over thirty in terms of points per game average.
They double their point output when they don't turn the
ball over. Taking a look at some of the numbers,
as we do here on Bills, by the numbers of
(07:12):
the one hundred and fifty two runs on first down,
they've gained seven hundred and thirty five yards. Of their
ninety seven pass attempts on first down, they've gained seven
hundred and seventy three yards. The other eleven pass plays
wound up being scrambles. Usually the yards gained via the
pass far out gain the rushing total. Here it's a
mere thirty eight yard difference. Thing number two. Do these
(07:37):
numbers on first down indicate why they're leaning into the
run game so much on the first play of the series.
Are they not as productive as they feel they should
be on first down when passing?
Speaker 3 (07:46):
I think it's yeah, it's obvious.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Yes, the answer is yes.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
Right, yes, yeah, that's the answer is yes. And most
of their and let's think about it too, we all
know it, and we get calls on the regular daily
show all the time. You know, all they do and
finger quotes. All they do. They throw those quick tunnel
screens to Shakir or to somebody in the in the
you know, in the slot, and see what they can
get with their legs.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
But teams have become wise to that.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Right, so they are not as efficient on first down
when they throw it as they as you love them
to be. That that is an absolute truth, and that's
one of the reasons, you know why those numbers are
what they are. They have not been as efficient in
passing game as they need to be. And I think
the running game has been their savior to this point
of the league. And they're and to this point of
the season and they're leaning on it, and now teams
(08:36):
are gonna get wise to it. But I don't think
they've They've hit every gear. And even when teams are
wise to it, this team is good enough to win
if they don't turn it over.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
And despite the disjointed look of the passing game, the
numbers on first down say, when the Bills do throw
the football, they have been efficient. They rank thirty in
pass attempts on first down, but they're eighth in passer
rating at one ten point four, fifth in completion percentage
at almost seventy two percent, seventh in yards per attempt
(09:11):
at eight point four, ninth in yards per completion eleven
point seven, but thirty first in yards after catch per
completion at three point seven. A strange figure knowing overall
the Bills are eleventh in the NFL in total yards
after catch thing number three. Could the low yards after
catch figure be part of why they lean toward the
(09:34):
run game so much on first down you're only getting
three point seven after the catch, you're averaging five yards
to carry.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
Yeah, there's a lot in this, and not all of
it's pretty I think their propensity to throw the ball
behind the line of scrimmage so much on first down,
you know, is and that also plays into the fact
that the defense is playing up to stop the run.
That they're so head up by the line of scrimmage,
So that's where the defense is, and you know, they
jump those routes quick. It's hard to make hay against
(10:03):
a team that's set up to defend it. And yeah,
they just have not been successfully enough throwing the football
past the line of scrimmage on first down. Yeah, certainly
the seventy two Yeah, they're completing all their throws, but
they're behind the line of scrimmage when there's you know,
the guy stands up and catches a pass as quick
as Josh can throw it.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
I am perplexed by the seventh in yards per attempt
at eight point four. That just seems like an unbelievable
figure for me in light of how the offense has
looked when they throw on first down. There might be
a play action like the first play of the game
against the Falcons that skews the numbers. The completion of
Palmer for forty yards, right, that's gonna up that number. Yeah,
(10:44):
I just don't feel like there's enough of those to
push that number to eight point four yards per attempt.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
That's a fat number.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
There's not that many.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
I guess it's a small sample.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
You're right, because they're thirtieth in past attempts on first down,
So it's a small sample skewing the number.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
Yeah, so one big play adds a yard to all
those other attempts, right, So yeah, it's they just have
not done it. And I think it's I don't know
that it's a lack of faith rather than just a
doubling down on what they know they can do and
they're kind of philosophy of we're gonna score enough points
that you're gonna have to keep up with us whether
(11:18):
we run it or not, and you're not gonna have
enough possessions to do that. And that has been you know,
they're six and three, and I can't think of a
way that's more stark of contrast to tell you why
they're six and three and they should could be eight
and one than turnovers. I mean, that's it. If they
don't turn the ball over in the Patriots game or
(11:40):
this Miami game, that game is a win, not a loss.
You have a hard time convincing me. Now the Atlanta
game is a is an outlier maybe, but they did
turn it over in that game too twice.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
So that's I don't think they're gonna get off of
that philosophy. Now, Fans clamor for you know, a high flying,
you know, light show from Josh and the defending MVP
and all these guys and Keon and Shakir and Kincaid
and let's go and James Cook in the passing game
and it's all, you know, let's go, no huddle, the
whole thing, right, But man, they are tough to beat.
(12:14):
With this philosophy and no turnovers, they are almost impossible
to beat.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Right when the turnovers coming to play, that's when it
gets a little hairy.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
I think it's just crazy for Bills.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Fans to accept the fact that this approach, while it
does win games, seems to put restrict your plates on
Josh Allen.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
I get it, but I'll say this too, Josh is
still got that gear.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Yes, but how often is he allowed to go there?
You don't want him to Well, you don't want anything.
Speaker 3 (12:45):
You want him to hand it.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Off fifty five times in a way saying not, well, right.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
Nobody, you don't. You don't want your MVP quarterback to
have put a cape on and lift the world and
throw it all into the sun to win the game.
They just and they don't have to, they don't. They
want him to pull that out if they if he
has to, okay, great, But that game against Miami, you
saw him put that cape on a couple of times,
(13:11):
and you know the fourth and sixteen or the third,
you know the third and sixteen that he completed all
that running around for fifteen seconds doing it. You know
that's that's that's not sustainable. And you know you've got
it under the under your hood. You don't want to
make a game plan around that. You just don't. So
(13:35):
I get it. It's no fun. I mean, we we
took they won the game forty to nine, and Bill's
fans Carolina were ticked. They were unhad fired, they were
having people they wanted people fired after a forty to
nine victory. That's how hard you know? That's so you know,
(14:01):
I don't know. Bills fans may never get on board
with this recipe they're using to win games. Well, I
particularly what it looks like it did in Miami and
against the Patriots, because they turn it over and they lose.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Yeah, I think.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
I think the other thing that's getting in the way
here is the league and advanced analytics has proven that
even if you don't have an elite receiving corps, passing
the ball can be a more efficient way to move
the ball, and this stat might convince you of it.
Despite leading the league in rushing yards per game, the
(14:33):
Bills ranked sixteenth in the league in the number of
first downs they generate per rushing attempt.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
On first down.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
They get a first down on a first down run
play thirteen and a half percent of the time, So
when they run it on first down, thirteen and a
half percent of the time they get a first down.
When passing on first down, they move the sticks thirty
six percent of the time. That's almost three times more
successful in moving the ball and rank sixth highest in
(15:01):
the league. This despite the fact that their receiving corps
isn't a top talent group across the board when compared
to other teams. Should they try to throw the ball.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
More on first down in the second half of the.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
Season, Yeah, I think they need to evolve, no question
about it. Teams are gonna come up with answers to
their philosophy. If your offensive line is still healthy, James
Cook is still playing, you go until they have to
force you to do something you're not good at. And
I'm not saying they're not good at it, but if
their bread and butter is running it on first down
and they're knocking off five yards a clip, there's no
(15:38):
reason to start throwing it because it's a safer way
to move the football, and like we've been talking about
in trumpeting, you're not going to turn it over much.
So if teams force them out of it, yeah, they
need to have an arsenal to go to philosophy in
the throwing game to start throwing it on first down.
And it seems aimfully obvious that a hard play action
(16:03):
Josh under center, turn his back to the defense and
faking a handoff would do that. Teams attack that as well,
particularly if under center, they'll send extra people into the
box and up the field. So if they don't bite
on the playfake, Josh is dead in the pocket.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
Unless they run a boot leg off the play action.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Right, which we're going to be around as a different store,
which would be a nice element knowing he likes to
get out of the pocket anyway.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
But that's that's a wide disparity.
Speaker 1 (16:33):
And again we know throwing on first down is a
small sample size because they're thirtieth in attempts on throwing
on first down. But to go from thirteen and a
half percent success in getting another first down by running
it on first down and then going to thirty six
percent success rate throwing the ball, I think it behooves
the Bills to at least explore more first down throwing opportunities.
(16:58):
And look, coming out of the Miami game, Joe Brady
said his one regret was he didn't throw it more
early in the game based on how their run game
was operating early on, So almost he got blinded by
the season long success of the run game to the
point where.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
He stuck with it.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
Upon review longer than he felt he should have. So
I'm curious to see what that experience in the Miami
game does for his play call thinking going forward, particularly
on first down. Finally, the Bills defense continues to lose
man games due to injury. Landon Jackson just got in
(17:39):
the lineup and the last two series and goes on
injured reserve with a knee injury. Should the player turnover,
and lack of manpower on defense influence how the offense
is called. In other words, the defense is shorthanded. Let's
not have them defend eleven or twelve possessions a game.
Let's control the clock on offense with our run game,
dominate time of possession, and give our opponent just nine
(18:01):
or ten possessions for our defense to defend.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
What do you make of that?
Speaker 3 (18:05):
Absolutely, I mean, that's that's what they've been doing or
trying to in some cases. I think that's one of
the things Sean McDermott hangs his hat on as a
head coach. He knows how to make it easier on
a defense because he was a coordinator, and he's also
he also knows too, he's smart enough to know when
he's get When they're game planning for the Bills offense,
(18:28):
it's a load and that and the Bills offense has
a lot of weapons and the ability to stay on
the field offensively and particularly with a running game. I
think that's that leans right into the strength of where
your team's at now and also makes it tough on
your opponents offense and defense. So your defense is there,
(18:51):
the opponent's defense is always going to be under stress
because you got Josh Allen taking snaps and whatever that
means to you that he can put pressure on a defense,
seen it his entire career. You add that with a
running game and an offensive line that's solid and James
Cook and all of that stuff. Yeah, you got to
lean on that and this and having the defense going
(19:12):
through what it's going through on the injury front. I mean,
that's that is a no brainer to me. That's a
no brainer. Now, certainly it's exactly what we've seen him
do even when their defense was healthy, but man, oh Man,
This offense is the strength of the team. Yeah, and
they've got to lean into it.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
Yes, And I'm in favor of that as well. And look,
the defense is starting to get healthier. They'll probably get TJ.
Sanders off injured reserve, if not this week, certainly next week.
It looks like Christian Benford will be back in the
lineup this week. Shaq Thompson looks like he's ready to
come back from his hamstring injury. Aaron Johnson, Tarren Johnson,
(19:51):
you know, looks ready to return. So they are getting
healthier on that side of the ball. If you feel
they are deficient or incapable of of effectively stopping a
given opponent on a regular basis, yeah, reduce that team's
number of possessions by controlling the clock long sustained drives
on offense. I just don't want them to go to
(20:13):
the lengths where they're compromising maybe what they feel will
work best for them against that opposing defense, you know,
because they're so concerned about their own defense holding up.
I don't think they've gone that far. I just don't
want it to get to that point. If that makes sense,
they still got to do what you do on offense,
(20:34):
and you know, yeah, you want to support your defense,
complimentary football and all of that, but not to the
point where now you're inhibiting your own success offensively just
for the sake of controlling clock.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
So your defense is not on the field as.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
Right if you've got to. If you're going in against
a team that you know doesn't have a pass rush,
you know, and they're secondaries depleted, you feel like, yeah,
we're gonna go out and I'm gonna sling it around
little bit on these guys and make them hay no
question about it. Every game and like we've been talking about,
every game is different, and I don't think it affects
(21:09):
their ability to formulate a game plan, but there probably
are moments in every game where they could, you know,
where it's a neutral down and distance, and they probably
lean more towards the running game in those instances because
of their ability to put their foot on the gas
on offense.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
And it's hard not to wonder last week, after the
defense was on the field for almost twenty minutes of
the first half, that the offensive staff huddled up, maybe
even with the head coach, and they said, hey, look,
we're in.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
A heat game.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
Here, we're short bodies on defense. We got three defensive
ends where we've got a dim back playing nickel, we
got a bench corner playing dime. Right, we have to
come out and run the ball in the second half,
control the clock a little bit and give our defense
a break here, guys, And maybe that's why they're still
(22:03):
running the ball to start the second half even though
they're down sixteen nothing, right, but then they turn the
ball over and it all goes to hell and a
and they got they had an eight minute drive and
got nothing and they turn it over in Miami's end
when yeah, yeah, that.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
That's the frustrating part about it. You got James Cook
puking it up, Josh puking it up on a on
a quarterback sneak, and it's just the weight of the
turnover margin when the Bills turn it over is just
crushing for a team that's playing. With the philosophy of
this one.
Speaker 1 (22:41):
We shift to the Numbers game where Steve will be
quizzed on Bills run pass history.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
Let's do it.
Speaker 1 (22:50):
Question number one in the Sean McDermott era, in what
season did the Bills have the most run plays, call.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Most rushes twenty twenty one.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
That is incorrect, nineteen twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
No, it is more recent seas really, twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1 (23:17):
It's twenty twenty three, when Joe Brady took over mid season.
Five hundred and twelve carries.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
The whole season was more than any other season.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
In the McDermott era.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
Okay, yeah, Question number two in the Sean McDermott era,
in what season did the Bills have the most pass
plays called most passed?
Speaker 3 (23:39):
Twenty twenty You're close, but in correct.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
Twenty twenty one, man, And that was with Brian Dable
as OC. And that was the year they threw on
first down more than any other team in football in
four years. It has completely flit lipped crazy to think
Question three since seventeen, in what season did the Bills
(24:03):
have the most run plays called on first down?
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Twenty twenty eight? Three?
Speaker 1 (24:11):
You would think that, but it's incorrect. Twenty twenty four,
twenty twenty four, two hundred and seventy six. Side note,
The Bills pace this year will shatter that, yeah, right,
as they are on pace to have three hundred and
eight carries on first down alone this season.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
That's the pace there on a question four.
Speaker 1 (24:34):
Since twenty seventeen, in what season did the Bills have
the most pass plays called on first down?
Speaker 3 (24:44):
Twenty one?
Speaker 2 (24:45):
You would think that, but that is not right.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
The most pass plays seas well, twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
Twenty twenty, Yeah, three hundred and that was in just
sixteen games played.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
Yeah, it was still sixteen games in twenty twenty, that
is was it? I think so right now?
Speaker 3 (25:03):
No, that was the demor Hamlin game got canceled.
Speaker 1 (25:05):
Well, no, that's twenty three. Okay, that's the twenty twenty
two season. When that game got canceled. I thought they
had gone to the seventeen game schedule un till twenty one.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
I think I'm wrong.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
Really, it's that recent.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
It seems like forever it does, doesn't it.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
Wow?
Speaker 1 (25:18):
There you go, all right, well that's the numbers game.
Speaker 3 (25:20):
I was fair, Yes, right right.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
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partner the Buffalo Bills. Time now for our one burning question.
(25:45):
Do the Bills have to win their next four games
against Tampa Bay, Houston, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to have a
shot at the division title? I will tell you New
England had the Jets Thursday night, Cincinnati Giants bye week,
then Bills.
Speaker 3 (26:06):
Yeah. I think the Bills are gonna have to win out,
win until that week fifteen game against the New England Patriots,
no question, because Patriots aren't taking their foot off the gas.
They're not beating themselves, and the teams that they're gonna
play struggle with that. So they're gonna have to keep
pace until that game. It's hard to see the Patriots
stumbling with the risk with the schedule that they've got,
(26:28):
you know, the fourth place schedule. So yeah, I think
the Bills got to win it. They got to win
out now. Certainly in the big picture, you think, ad,
there's no way the Patriots can go fifteen and two
on the season, right, But you can't count on that.
I mean they I don't. They take them pet of time.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
It's hard to sustain, as you say all the time
that level of play for four months. They've won seven
in a row, not counting the Thursday night game, which
hasn't been played at the time of this taping Patriots Jets.
But yeah, they're not losing it, and we don't assume that.
We don't assume they will. And then Cincinnati still won't
have Burrow next week. And then the Giants, I mean,
(27:10):
they just fired their coach. Jamis Winston is playing for
them this week, so be nice. If Jamis goes up
to New England and throws five touchdowns and two picks
and wins forty eight or something, that would be nice.
So I think the Bills, James, So, I think the
(27:32):
Bills have to get on a run here. They have
to win this week, and then the big challenge. I
think the biggest challenge in this stretch is short week
and then on the road to Houston, where their defense
is a mother to play against, and they got to
do it in Energy Stadium down in Houston on a
short week.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
I think that's the toughest.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
One on this stretch here over the next four weeks.
And then of course New England has the benefit of
coming off the before they play the Bills at home.
It's gonna be an interesting four weeks here coming up
before that big game. And look, the Bills have to
win four in a row here, I think to make
(28:13):
that a big game.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
Yeah, if they stumble here.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
If they're two games behind them, it's not gonna make them.
And you know, coming down the stretch, the Bills have
got Philly coming down the stretch, and the Patriots don't.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
They do have Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
They do, So.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
That's not nothing, That is not much, something to keep
in mind, and Baltimore will probably need that game, knowing
they're still trying to make up ground here to some extent,
Our closing figure deals with the Bills Week eleven matchup
with the Bucks. The Bills are six and oh at
home versus NFC opponents since twenty twenty three, one of
two NFL clubs without a home interconference loss over the
(28:55):
last two years, with the other being green Bay. Buffalo
has scored thirty plus points in four straight home games
against NFC teams, and when it comes to Bill's Bucks specifically,
the home team has won each of the last seven matchups.
The last time the road team won in a Bill's
Bucks meeting week four of nineteen ninety one when Buffalo
(29:18):
beat Tampa Bay seventeen to ten at the Old Sombrero,
with Jim Kelly going for three hundred and twenty two
yards passing in the victory.
Speaker 2 (29:26):
I can't remember that in that game you did.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
I did little out route and turned it up the
field for nineteen first down very well, just like Ford downs. Yeah,
like one catch.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
I think that's a little pat on the back.
Speaker 3 (29:41):
I literally think that was my only catch of the.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Year that season.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
Yeah, hey man, factory, I think so factored into the
number one offensive football.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
I think Keith mckeller caught a tight end ran it
in for the go ahead touchdown. Seventeen tough, hard fought game.
I remember the Old Sombrero. They were wearing creamsickle colors
at the time. They weren't. They weren't the pewter color
that they are now. And on the sides of the
sombrero there was the season ticket blocked of Creamsickle buck fans,
(30:13):
and all the way around both sides was all blue
and red.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Oh wow, that was the first one of the first
real star takeovers.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
It was really stark. The contract. You could see the
season ticket blocks right in the middle of the forties
on both sides, and every place else was red and white.
It was it was pretty cool.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
That is pretty cool. That'll do it for this episode.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
Be sure to subscribe on whatever podcast platform you use,
or watch us on the Bills YouTube channel, because when
you need to know about the bills, you ate the
check bills by the numbers. For Steve Tasker on Chris Brown,
thanks for listening.
Speaker 3 (30:46):
We'll catch you next time. Everybody,
Hey, you're back, Thanks for checking in on Bills by
the Numbers, where we let the stats tell you where
the Bills are at. We're presented by FANDU will make
every moment more on the way the Bills of the
number one rushing team in football. But have they leaned
too far into the run game? We'll take a look
and should the state of the defense's health way into
the kind of game that's called on offense. Steve is
(00:22):
quizzed on Bills run versus past history, and we'll have
our one burning question schools in ring the bell, Thanks
(00:44):
for attending.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
The latest position of Bills by the Numbers. He's Wall
of Famer Steve.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Tasker on Bills play by playman Chris Brown, and we've
all seen how successful Buffalo can be offensively when their
run game is humming. Even though there have been a
couple of down days this season, the Bills are the
number one rushing team in football. James Cook has been
in contention for the rushing title this season since the start,
(01:09):
and that success has convinced the offensive staff to lean
way in on the run game, particularly on first down.
After nine games played, the Bills run the ball on
first down fifty eight and a half percent of the time,
and they're eighth and yards per carry average on first
down at four point nine, just a tenth off their
(01:29):
season average of five yards even, which is tied for
third best.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
In the league.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
So in these three things, we begin with this question.
While that is good production, should the Bills be running
that much on first down?
Speaker 3 (01:46):
Steve? I think it should be more balanced. I wish
they'd do a little bit more. Now. I get it.
You get into a game and you snap off a
six yard run on the first play of the series. Yeah,
I don't have a problem with that. But the problem
is if it doesn't work, I think that it's well,
it's like an incomplete pass right or even so a
loss of one. Right now, it's second and eleven. You
(02:10):
got to do what it takes to win that game.
I get that, And every game is different. So some games, yeah,
run it every first down, But when you start stepping
back and looking at the big picture, like we're doing
on Bills by the numbers, it's like, Man, I don't know,
I'd like to see John Now. They did that against Miami.
They came out in that first series and start throwing
it around and we're unproductive. So I get you know
(02:32):
how you react like that and say, now we're going
to start handing it off. But man, I'm telling you,
I'm I think balance is the best and I get it.
Sixty forty is not out of whack.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Yeah, it's fifty eight and a half to write forty two,
so forty one and a half.
Speaker 3 (02:49):
But I think situation, I think it more depends on
the situational spot of where you are in the game,
what the game plan is, who the opponent is. So
I'm you know, the big pictures, Yeah, you'd like to
see it fifty to fifty, but each game is an
animal on it onto its own. So I'm I think
you gotta trust what they see on film and what
(03:10):
they think they can do. Now, you gotta know our
offensive line is the big is a dependable asset on
this offense, lean on and out of the game. I'm
okay with that. But in the big picture, you want
to see it fifty to fifty.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Right, I think it's it's vacillated too far towards running
the ball on first down. And look, it might be
a byproduct, Steve of the disjointed nature of the pass game.
This offensive staff may not trust the passing game enough
right now to get them consistent yards on first down
(03:46):
to keep them on schedule.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
They might just.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Simply trust the run game more. Where As we said,
as a team, they average five yards to carry, so
they just might say, well, the heck with it. The
run game works well for us, we try it. Let's
run it on first down, get our five yards, and
figure out the rest later. But when another team, an
opponent is keying on that because your tendencies say you're
(04:10):
gonna do that, suddenly you're less effective and you've got
to pivot. And I think they're at a point now
where they have to pivot. I'm not saying become you know,
the throw it more than anybody else in the league
on first down, but I think we've seen the benefits
of Josh under center play action on first down this season.
(04:31):
It's worked well for them, and I think there's nothing
wrong with lining him up in the shotgun on first
down on occasion with James Cook next to him and
doing a read option fake and then throwing the football.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
There may be something to the fact that about their
lack of confidence in their own throwing passing game. Even
with Josh pulling the trigger. They also may say, listen,
we're going to keep leaning into it because it forces
the defense to throw eight in the box and that
gives us a chance to be more successful it. Certainly,
(05:04):
certainly the Dolphins did that. They throw it, brought out
three defensive alignment, three defensive tackles, they packed the line
of scrimmage, and it worked for them.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Yeah, they do play fifty front. They do do that.
They did that in the first meeting.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
And the Bills, I think, I think the Bills are
fine with that. They're going to run into that once
in a while. They don't they don't care. They can.
They feel like they can get it done a little better.
But what gets in the way of that. The Bills
are not uncomfortable in close games. But when you puke
the ball up twice going in in three different times
and you turn it over and there in that gets
(05:36):
in the way of a close game and all of
a sudden, it's not close. And when you're playing your
recipe is not that doesn't have that big a margin forever,
and that's the problem. Yeah, when you play that low
margin for error type style and you cough up the football,
you're gonna end up on the wrong end of those sometimes,
so it might require a shift in thinking, especially if
(05:56):
this team is going to be coughing up the ball
the way they had, I mean eight turnovers in their
three losses. This team had eight turnovers all season last year.
We knew it was going to We knew that was
not sustainable. You're not gonna go year over year lead
the league or have the fewest turnovers in the league.
That's just simply not gonna happen, purely by happenstance and
(06:18):
the law of averages. And now seeing the way they've
coughed up the football of late, you may need to
shift your thinking a little bit and try to widen
your margin for error.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
And the best way to do that might be to
throw the football right.
Speaker 3 (06:31):
They're not I mean they're not. They're not like leading
the league in turnovers, but no stretch. No, But in
their losses it's a problem, and I think that shows
you where their margin of error is. As long as
they mind their p's and q's and don't put the
ball on the ground, they're still very tough to beat.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
Yes, but in the three games where they have had
two turnovers or more, all losses, they've averaged fifteen points
per game. In the other game games this season, they
are over thirty in terms of points per game average.
They double their point output when they don't turn the
ball over. Taking a look at some of the numbers,
as we do here on Bills, by the numbers of
(07:12):
the one hundred and fifty two runs on first down,
they've gained seven hundred and thirty five yards. Of their
ninety seven pass attempts on first down, they've gained seven
hundred and seventy three yards. The other eleven pass plays
wound up being scrambles. Usually the yards gained via the
pass far out gain the rushing total. Here it's a
mere thirty eight yard difference. Thing number two. Do these
(07:37):
numbers on first down indicate why they're leaning into the
run game so much on the first play of the series.
Are they not as productive as they feel they should
be on first down when passing?
Speaker 3 (07:46):
I think it's yeah, it's obvious.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
Yes, the answer is yes.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
Right, yes, yeah, that's the answer is yes. And most
of their and let's think about it too, we all
know it, and we get calls on the regular daily
show all the time. You know, all they do and
finger quotes. All they do. They throw those quick tunnel
screens to Shakir or to somebody in the in the
you know, in the slot, and see what they can
get with their legs.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
But teams have become wise to that.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Right, so they are not as efficient on first down
when they throw it as they as you love them
to be. That that is an absolute truth, and that's
one of the reasons, you know why those numbers are
what they are. They have not been as efficient in
passing game as they need to be. And I think
the running game has been their savior to this point
of the league. And they're and to this point of
the season and they're leaning on it, and now teams
(08:36):
are gonna get wise to it. But I don't think
they've They've hit every gear. And even when teams are
wise to it, this team is good enough to win
if they don't turn it over.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
And despite the disjointed look of the passing game, the
numbers on first down say, when the Bills do throw
the football, they have been efficient. They rank thirty in
pass attempts on first down, but they're eighth in passer
rating at one ten point four, fifth in completion percentage
at almost seventy two percent, seventh in yards per attempt
(09:11):
at eight point four, ninth in yards per completion eleven
point seven, but thirty first in yards after catch per
completion at three point seven. A strange figure knowing overall
the Bills are eleventh in the NFL in total yards
after catch thing number three. Could the low yards after
catch figure be part of why they lean toward the
(09:34):
run game so much on first down you're only getting
three point seven after the catch, you're averaging five yards
to carry.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
Yeah, there's a lot in this, and not all of
it's pretty I think their propensity to throw the ball
behind the line of scrimmage so much on first down,
you know, is and that also plays into the fact
that the defense is playing up to stop the run.
That they're so head up by the line of scrimmage,
So that's where the defense is, and you know, they
jump those routes quick. It's hard to make hay against
(10:03):
a team that's set up to defend it. And yeah,
they just have not been successfully enough throwing the football
past the line of scrimmage on first down. Yeah, certainly
the seventy two Yeah, they're completing all their throws, but
they're behind the line of scrimmage when there's you know,
the guy stands up and catches a pass as quick
as Josh can throw it.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
I am perplexed by the seventh in yards per attempt
at eight point four. That just seems like an unbelievable
figure for me in light of how the offense has
looked when they throw on first down. There might be
a play action like the first play of the game
against the Falcons that skews the numbers. The completion of
Palmer for forty yards, right, that's gonna up that number. Yeah,
(10:44):
I just don't feel like there's enough of those to
push that number to eight point four yards per attempt.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
That's a fat number.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
There's not that many.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
I guess it's a small sample.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
You're right, because they're thirtieth in past attempts on first down,
So it's a small sample skewing the number.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
Yeah, so one big play adds a yard to all
those other attempts, right, So yeah, it's they just have
not done it. And I think it's I don't know
that it's a lack of faith rather than just a
doubling down on what they know they can do and
they're kind of philosophy of we're gonna score enough points
that you're gonna have to keep up with us whether
(11:18):
we run it or not, and you're not gonna have
enough possessions to do that. And that has been you know,
they're six and three, and I can't think of a
way that's more stark of contrast to tell you why
they're six and three and they should could be eight
and one than turnovers. I mean, that's it. If they
don't turn the ball over in the Patriots game or
(11:40):
this Miami game, that game is a win, not a loss.
You have a hard time convincing me. Now the Atlanta
game is a is an outlier maybe, but they did
turn it over in that game too twice.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
So that's I don't think they're gonna get off of
that philosophy. Now, Fans clamor for you know, a high flying,
you know, light show from Josh and the defending MVP
and all these guys and Keon and Shakir and Kincaid
and let's go and James Cook in the passing game
and it's all, you know, let's go, no huddle, the
whole thing, right, But man, they are tough to beat.
(12:14):
With this philosophy and no turnovers, they are almost impossible
to beat.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Right when the turnovers coming to play, that's when it
gets a little hairy.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
I think it's just crazy for Bills.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Fans to accept the fact that this approach, while it
does win games, seems to put restrict your plates on
Josh Allen.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
I get it, but I'll say this too, Josh is
still got that gear.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Yes, but how often is he allowed to go there?
You don't want him to Well, you don't want anything.
Speaker 3 (12:45):
You want him to hand it.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Off fifty five times in a way saying not, well, right.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
Nobody, you don't. You don't want your MVP quarterback to
have put a cape on and lift the world and
throw it all into the sun to win the game.
They just and they don't have to, they don't. They
want him to pull that out if they if he
has to, okay, great, But that game against Miami, you
saw him put that cape on a couple of times,
(13:11):
and you know the fourth and sixteen or the third,
you know the third and sixteen that he completed all
that running around for fifteen seconds doing it. You know
that's that's that's not sustainable. And you know you've got
it under the under your hood. You don't want to
make a game plan around that. You just don't. So
(13:35):
I get it. It's no fun. I mean, we we
took they won the game forty to nine, and Bill's
fans Carolina were ticked. They were unhad fired, they were
having people they wanted people fired after a forty to
nine victory. That's how hard you know? That's so you know,
(14:01):
I don't know. Bills fans may never get on board
with this recipe they're using to win games. Well, I
particularly what it looks like it did in Miami and
against the Patriots, because they turn it over and they lose.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Yeah, I think.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
I think the other thing that's getting in the way
here is the league and advanced analytics has proven that
even if you don't have an elite receiving corps, passing
the ball can be a more efficient way to move
the ball, and this stat might convince you of it.
Despite leading the league in rushing yards per game, the
(14:33):
Bills ranked sixteenth in the league in the number of
first downs they generate per rushing attempt.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
On first down.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
They get a first down on a first down run
play thirteen and a half percent of the time, So
when they run it on first down, thirteen and a
half percent of the time they get a first down.
When passing on first down, they move the sticks thirty
six percent of the time. That's almost three times more
successful in moving the ball and rank sixth highest in
(15:01):
the league. This despite the fact that their receiving corps
isn't a top talent group across the board when compared
to other teams. Should they try to throw the ball.
Speaker 2 (15:12):
More on first down in the second half of the.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
Season, Yeah, I think they need to evolve, no question
about it. Teams are gonna come up with answers to
their philosophy. If your offensive line is still healthy, James
Cook is still playing, you go until they have to
force you to do something you're not good at. And
I'm not saying they're not good at it, but if
their bread and butter is running it on first down
and they're knocking off five yards a clip, there's no
(15:38):
reason to start throwing it because it's a safer way
to move the football, and like we've been talking about
in trumpeting, you're not going to turn it over much.
So if teams force them out of it, yeah, they
need to have an arsenal to go to philosophy in
the throwing game to start throwing it on first down.
And it seems aimfully obvious that a hard play action
(16:03):
Josh under center, turn his back to the defense and
faking a handoff would do that. Teams attack that as well,
particularly if under center, they'll send extra people into the
box and up the field. So if they don't bite
on the playfake, Josh is dead in the pocket.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
Unless they run a boot leg off the play action.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Right, which we're going to be around as a different store,
which would be a nice element knowing he likes to
get out of the pocket anyway.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
But that's that's a wide disparity.
Speaker 1 (16:33):
And again we know throwing on first down is a
small sample size because they're thirtieth in attempts on throwing
on first down. But to go from thirteen and a
half percent success in getting another first down by running
it on first down and then going to thirty six
percent success rate throwing the ball, I think it behooves
the Bills to at least explore more first down throwing opportunities.
(16:58):
And look, coming out of the Miami game, Joe Brady
said his one regret was he didn't throw it more
early in the game based on how their run game
was operating early on, So almost he got blinded by
the season long success of the run game to the
point where.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
He stuck with it.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
Upon review longer than he felt he should have. So
I'm curious to see what that experience in the Miami
game does for his play call thinking going forward, particularly
on first down. Finally, the Bills defense continues to lose
man games due to injury. Landon Jackson just got in
(17:39):
the lineup and the last two series and goes on
injured reserve with a knee injury. Should the player turnover,
and lack of manpower on defense influence how the offense
is called. In other words, the defense is shorthanded. Let's
not have them defend eleven or twelve possessions a game.
Let's control the clock on offense with our run game,
dominate time of possession, and give our opponent just nine
(18:01):
or ten possessions for our defense to defend.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
What do you make of that?
Speaker 3 (18:05):
Absolutely, I mean, that's that's what they've been doing or
trying to in some cases. I think that's one of
the things Sean McDermott hangs his hat on as a
head coach. He knows how to make it easier on
a defense because he was a coordinator, and he's also
he also knows too, he's smart enough to know when
he's get When they're game planning for the Bills offense,
(18:28):
it's a load and that and the Bills offense has
a lot of weapons and the ability to stay on
the field offensively and particularly with a running game. I
think that's that leans right into the strength of where
your team's at now and also makes it tough on
your opponents offense and defense. So your defense is there,
(18:51):
the opponent's defense is always going to be under stress
because you got Josh Allen taking snaps and whatever that
means to you that he can put pressure on a defense,
seen it his entire career. You add that with a
running game and an offensive line that's solid and James
Cook and all of that stuff. Yeah, you got to
lean on that and this and having the defense going
(19:12):
through what it's going through on the injury front. I mean,
that's that is a no brainer to me. That's a
no brainer. Now, certainly it's exactly what we've seen him
do even when their defense was healthy, but man, oh Man,
This offense is the strength of the team. Yeah, and
they've got to lean into it.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
Yes, And I'm in favor of that as well. And look,
the defense is starting to get healthier. They'll probably get TJ.
Sanders off injured reserve, if not this week, certainly next week.
It looks like Christian Benford will be back in the
lineup this week. Shaq Thompson looks like he's ready to
come back from his hamstring injury. Aaron Johnson, Tarren Johnson,
(19:51):
you know, looks ready to return. So they are getting
healthier on that side of the ball. If you feel
they are deficient or incapable of of effectively stopping a
given opponent on a regular basis, yeah, reduce that team's
number of possessions by controlling the clock long sustained drives
on offense. I just don't want them to go to
(20:13):
the lengths where they're compromising maybe what they feel will
work best for them against that opposing defense, you know,
because they're so concerned about their own defense holding up.
I don't think they've gone that far. I just don't
want it to get to that point. If that makes sense,
they still got to do what you do on offense,
(20:34):
and you know, yeah, you want to support your defense,
complimentary football and all of that, but not to the
point where now you're inhibiting your own success offensively just
for the sake of controlling clock.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
So your defense is not on the field as.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
Right if you've got to. If you're going in against
a team that you know doesn't have a pass rush,
you know, and they're secondaries depleted, you feel like, yeah,
we're gonna go out and I'm gonna sling it around
little bit on these guys and make them hay no
question about it. Every game and like we've been talking about,
every game is different, and I don't think it affects
(21:09):
their ability to formulate a game plan, but there probably
are moments in every game where they could, you know,
where it's a neutral down and distance, and they probably
lean more towards the running game in those instances because
of their ability to put their foot on the gas
on offense.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
And it's hard not to wonder last week, after the
defense was on the field for almost twenty minutes of
the first half, that the offensive staff huddled up, maybe
even with the head coach, and they said, hey, look,
we're in.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
A heat game.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
Here, we're short bodies on defense. We got three defensive
ends where we've got a dim back playing nickel, we
got a bench corner playing dime. Right, we have to
come out and run the ball in the second half,
control the clock a little bit and give our defense
a break here, guys, And maybe that's why they're still
(22:03):
running the ball to start the second half even though
they're down sixteen nothing, right, but then they turn the
ball over and it all goes to hell and a
and they got they had an eight minute drive and
got nothing and they turn it over in Miami's end
when yeah, yeah, that.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
That's the frustrating part about it. You got James Cook
puking it up, Josh puking it up on a on
a quarterback sneak, and it's just the weight of the
turnover margin when the Bills turn it over is just
crushing for a team that's playing. With the philosophy of
this one.
Speaker 1 (22:41):
We shift to the Numbers game where Steve will be
quizzed on Bills run pass history.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
Let's do it.
Speaker 1 (22:50):
Question number one in the Sean McDermott era, in what
season did the Bills have the most run plays, call.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Most rushes twenty twenty one.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
That is incorrect, nineteen twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
No, it is more recent seas really, twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1 (23:17):
It's twenty twenty three, when Joe Brady took over mid season.
Five hundred and twelve carries.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
The whole season was more than any other season.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
In the McDermott era.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
Okay, yeah, Question number two in the Sean McDermott era,
in what season did the Bills have the most pass
plays called most passed?
Speaker 3 (23:39):
Twenty twenty You're close, but in correct.
Speaker 1 (23:43):
Twenty twenty one, man, And that was with Brian Dable
as OC. And that was the year they threw on
first down more than any other team in football in
four years. It has completely flit lipped crazy to think
Question three since seventeen, in what season did the Bills
(24:03):
have the most run plays called on first down?
Speaker 3 (24:09):
Twenty twenty eight? Three?
Speaker 1 (24:11):
You would think that, but it's incorrect. Twenty twenty four,
twenty twenty four, two hundred and seventy six. Side note,
The Bills pace this year will shatter that, yeah, right,
as they are on pace to have three hundred and
eight carries on first down alone this season.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
That's the pace there on a question four.
Speaker 1 (24:34):
Since twenty seventeen, in what season did the Bills have
the most pass plays called on first down?
Speaker 3 (24:44):
Twenty one?
Speaker 2 (24:45):
You would think that, but that is not right.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
The most pass plays seas well, twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
Twenty twenty, Yeah, three hundred and that was in just
sixteen games played.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
Yeah, it was still sixteen games in twenty twenty, that
is was it? I think so right now?
Speaker 3 (25:03):
No, that was the demor Hamlin game got canceled.
Speaker 1 (25:05):
Well, no, that's twenty three. Okay, that's the twenty twenty
two season. When that game got canceled. I thought they
had gone to the seventeen game schedule un till twenty one.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
I think I'm wrong.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
Really, it's that recent.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
It seems like forever it does, doesn't it.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
Wow?
Speaker 1 (25:18):
There you go, all right, well that's the numbers game.
Speaker 3 (25:20):
I was fair, Yes, right right.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
You quickly rebounded on some of those Bill's fans. Get
in on the action with FanDuel America's number one sportsbook.
Just download the app today to play anyway you want. Plus,
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partner the Buffalo Bills. Time now for our one burning question.
(25:45):
Do the Bills have to win their next four games
against Tampa Bay, Houston, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to have a
shot at the division title? I will tell you New
England had the Jets Thursday night, Cincinnati Giants bye week,
then Bills.
Speaker 3 (26:06):
Yeah. I think the Bills are gonna have to win out,
win until that week fifteen game against the New England Patriots,
no question, because Patriots aren't taking their foot off the gas.
They're not beating themselves, and the teams that they're gonna
play struggle with that. So they're gonna have to keep
pace until that game. It's hard to see the Patriots
stumbling with the risk with the schedule that they've got,
(26:28):
you know, the fourth place schedule. So yeah, I think
the Bills got to win it. They got to win
out now. Certainly in the big picture, you think, ad,
there's no way the Patriots can go fifteen and two
on the season, right, But you can't count on that.
I mean they I don't. They take them pet of time.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
It's hard to sustain, as you say all the time
that level of play for four months. They've won seven
in a row, not counting the Thursday night game, which
hasn't been played at the time of this taping Patriots Jets.
But yeah, they're not losing it, and we don't assume that.
We don't assume they will. And then Cincinnati still won't
have Burrow next week. And then the Giants, I mean,
(27:10):
they just fired their coach. Jamis Winston is playing for
them this week, so be nice. If Jamis goes up
to New England and throws five touchdowns and two picks
and wins forty eight or something, that would be nice.
So I think the Bills, James, So, I think the
(27:32):
Bills have to get on a run here. They have
to win this week, and then the big challenge. I
think the biggest challenge in this stretch is short week
and then on the road to Houston, where their defense
is a mother to play against, and they got to
do it in Energy Stadium down in Houston on a
short week.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
I think that's the toughest.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
One on this stretch here over the next four weeks.
And then of course New England has the benefit of
coming off the before they play the Bills at home.
It's gonna be an interesting four weeks here coming up
before that big game. And look, the Bills have to
win four in a row here, I think to make
(28:13):
that a big game.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
Yeah, if they stumble here.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
If they're two games behind them, it's not gonna make them.
And you know, coming down the stretch, the Bills have
got Philly coming down the stretch, and the Patriots don't.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
They do have Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (28:31):
They do, So.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
That's not nothing, That is not much, something to keep
in mind, and Baltimore will probably need that game, knowing
they're still trying to make up ground here to some extent,
Our closing figure deals with the Bills Week eleven matchup
with the Bucks. The Bills are six and oh at
home versus NFC opponents since twenty twenty three, one of
two NFL clubs without a home interconference loss over the
(28:55):
last two years, with the other being green Bay. Buffalo
has scored thirty plus points in four straight home games
against NFC teams, and when it comes to Bill's Bucks specifically,
the home team has won each of the last seven matchups.
The last time the road team won in a Bill's
Bucks meeting week four of nineteen ninety one when Buffalo
(29:18):
beat Tampa Bay seventeen to ten at the Old Sombrero,
with Jim Kelly going for three hundred and twenty two
yards passing in the victory.
Speaker 2 (29:26):
I can't remember that in that game you did.
Speaker 3 (29:28):
I did little out route and turned it up the
field for nineteen first down very well, just like Ford downs. Yeah,
like one catch.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
I think that's a little pat on the back.
Speaker 3 (29:41):
I literally think that was my only catch of the.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Year that season.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
Yeah, hey man, factory, I think so factored into the
number one offensive football.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
I think Keith mckeller caught a tight end ran it
in for the go ahead touchdown. Seventeen tough, hard fought game.
I remember the Old Sombrero. They were wearing creamsickle colors
at the time. They weren't. They weren't the pewter color
that they are now. And on the sides of the
sombrero there was the season ticket blocked of Creamsickle buck fans,
(30:13):
and all the way around both sides was all blue
and red.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Oh wow, that was the first one of the first
real star takeovers.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
It was really stark. The contract. You could see the
season ticket blocks right in the middle of the forties
on both sides, and every place else was red and white.
It was it was pretty cool.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
That is pretty cool. That'll do it for this episode.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
Be sure to subscribe on whatever podcast platform you use,
or watch us on the Bills YouTube channel, because when
you need to know about the bills, you ate the
check bills by the numbers. For Steve Tasker on Chris Brown,
thanks for listening.
Speaker 3 (30:46):
We'll catch you next time. Everybody,
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