December 4, 2025 • 23 mins
On this week's episode of Bills by the Numbers presented by FanDuel, Chris Brown and Steve Tasker assess the current standings in the AFC, the battle for playoff seeding, and where the Bills might finish when the regular season concludes. The guys take a look at the best and worst case scenarios for playoff matchups and Steve is quizzed on Bills December history in The Numbers Game. Finally, the two give their answer to this week's One Burning Question, will Shaq Thompson retain his starting position at middle linebacker?
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
After a brief holiday hiatus, we are back here on
Bills by the Numbers, where we let the stats tell
you where the Bills are at. We're presented by Fan
Duel Make every moment more coming up? How well positioned
are the Bills in the AFC Conference playoff race? Is
the division title even a remote possibility? And what opponents
could be a bad postseason matchup for Buffalo? Steve is
(00:23):
quizzed on Bill's December history, and we'll have our one
burning question. Somebody get the shovel. We got to move
some snow. Oh, it's good to have you with us.
(00:45):
Steve Bill's Ball of Famous, Steve's Master on Bill's played
by playman Chris Brown, and we've made it to December.
Here in the twenty twenty five season, the Bills, heading
into Week fourteen, are in the seventh and final playoff
position at eight and four as the lowest seated wild
card team. That is, of course subject to change, as
eight teams are separated by three games in the lost
(01:07):
column with five to play in the AFC. Right now,
the New York Times playoff simulator projects the Bills to
finish eleven and six and be the five seed in
the afcmen the season is over. They have the Colts
and Jaguars as the six and seven seeds with ten
and seven records. Their division champions are New England, Denver, Jacksonville,
(01:29):
and Baltimore, which would mean the Bills would face the
Ravens in Baltimore in a rematch of last year's divisional playoffs.
Thoughts on that, Steve Tasker, that is juicy.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Yeah, I have not happy thoughts about that. Okay, let's
face it, though, when you get in them, nobody knows
better than the Buffalo Bills. When you get into the playoffs,
you're going to start meeting some really quality teams who
are really playing well and have figured some things out.
Whether they've been injured in the regular season or not,
they're overcoming it and they figured out how their best
(02:00):
way to win and they're very good at it. So
you're gonna it's not gonna be any cakewalk no matter
which of the division winners you get as a wild card.
It's gonna be an uphill battle. And so I'm I.
You know, the theme of this pod is, you know,
kind of this post game tournament, postseason tournament that.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
We're talking about, and how it's shaping up.
Speaker 2 (02:19):
I don't know if there is a favorable path to
get to the super Bowl for this team coming out
of the wildcard because they're all all the teams that
are division winners that seem like rough matchups right now.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Well right, but I think if you if you get
the top wild card seed, you're playing the conceivably weakest
division winner, and the Ravens are beat up. They're a
beat up crew. Derrick Henry does not look the same
as he did in September. Maybe those thirty one year
old legs are finally slowing down. I'm not dismissing Baltimore
(02:56):
as a walk don't get me wrong. Right, Plus, you're
in their building, and we know how when that crowd
gets behind them, if they go to a fast start,
they're a front running team.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
They're gonna have a chip on their shoulder from what
happened in Week one. They'll remember that. They'll remember that. Yeah,
I'm I get you, and you're right. But I'll say this,
just because Baltimore has the worst record doesn't mean in
a month and a half we got five weeks. Yes,
it doesn't mean that in five weeks they're not gonna
be the team you don't want to play. That's true,
(03:25):
a lot like the Cincinnati Bengals have been in years
past when they just missed the playoffs, where it's like, man,
I hope they don't get in. Yeah, right, So it
could be like that for any one of these division winners.
Although you know New England looks like that, has looked
like that for ten weeks, right, And best to luck.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
As to who the AFC South Champs gonna be. I mean,
that's would be the Colts, it could be the Texas,
it could be the Jaguars. You don't know.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
That may be the division champion that I might relish
playing the most.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Yeah, but I mean you don't know who the AFC
North champs gonna be.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
I mean, to your point on the Bengals, there are
two games out on the lost column at four and
eight with five to play. They could get in.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
I could get in.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
They could get in. They could win the division. The
division championship is the best route to the place.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Nobody has iced the division yet. Uh. Certainly, the New
England Patriots look far and away like they're gonna run
off with the East. They still haven't mathematically.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
We'll get into that.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
But yeah, the Ravens, Steelers, Bengals. Steelers out to a
fast start. Now they're stumbling. Year they're in flames. Ravens
just the opposite, stumbled out of the gates. Now they're cooking.
But they look hamstrung, no pun intended, look the same.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
He's injured, clearly.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
The Bengals, Joe Burrow's back in the saddle, and they
look they looked like grease lightning last week against the
Baltimore Ravens, SO and Cleveland. They may have the best
defense in the division right So, not that they're going anywhere. Yeah,
they're not gonna go anywhere, but they are they can
be a huge spoiler for any of these teams. So
I'm I'm with you. I'm you don't know who it's
(04:57):
going to be. It's a wide open race. There are
conceived within reason two and a half teams, the Steelers, Ravens,
and Bengals. And I like the Bengals better than Steelers
right now. Steelers are in flames.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
Bengals can't stop anybody. But if they could score thirty
five every week, I'll win more than they love.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Yeah, but in the long term, when you live like that,
it's not sustainable. It's not sustainable because you know, somebody
drops a pass and you lose.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
The Bills currently have a ninety one percent chance to
reach the postseason, sitting at eight and four, but just
an eight percent chance to win the division. New England,
as we know, has the division league by three games
over Buffalo with five to play. They also have a
superior division record, three and oh to Buffalo's two and
two mark. What's interesting is the Patriots are five and
two at home and a perfect six and oh on
(05:50):
the road. Buffalo faces them coming off of theirby in
week fifteen. If the Bills beat Cincinnati in Week fourteen,
their chances of win the division improved slightly to eleven percent.
If they follow that with a win in New England,
those chances improve to twenty four percent. The division is
a long shot at best, because they would also need
(06:11):
New England to fall off a cliff. But how likely
do you see the Bills running off a string of
wins in December? Let's start there.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
Yeah, I mean, I certainly think they're going to have
a winning record for the rest of the way. From Cincinnati,
New England, Cleveland, Philly and the Jets they're going to
win more than they lose. I don't know that they're
going to go four and one. They might, they might.
I don't know that you can go five and oh.
I don't know they're going to go five and oh
finish the season six and oh. Coming off the Pittsburgh game,
(06:40):
although it's going to be a tussle every game, I
think the Bills are going to play well enough to
do that. They've got Philly at home, They've got the
Jets at home. They've got Cincinnati at home. The New
England and Philly game are the ones that kind of
stand out as real issues. Philly, It'll be interesting to
see the kind of shape therein emotionally when they get here.
(07:01):
They are getting run through.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
The Ringer and Dallas is super hot right now and
in their division.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Yes, their fans are unhappy, their team is unhappy. They're
getting picked apart in the media. They have all kinds
of stuff going on that they have to deal with.
Forget about the team they're playing. It's like putting fires out.
There's a good chance to go to need that game though.
In Week seventeen, absolutely so. The New England and Philly
games are the ones that you kind of look at
and go, man, here we go. But the other three
(07:27):
you're gonna be favored in, and you should be. And
they get a break with having the ones at home.
They've got at home. So yeah, the Bills could. The
Bills are always gonna have a winning record coming down.
They've played very well at this time of year in
years past. Their coaching staff and McDermott have done a
very nice job of finding like I said in the
beginning of the podcast this segment, they're good at figuring
(07:50):
out their best way to win, even after all the
injuries and after the turnovers and all the things that
have happened to them in years past. And they have
figured it out. And so I would imagine going to
continue to do that, and so they'll play some of
their best football coming down the stretch.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
They typically have under Sean McDermott. And so I'm bullish
on the Bills finishing strong here again. And I think
for some reason, with this group, when the picture of
what needs to happen for them to get where they
want to go comes clearer into focus here at the
(08:26):
end of the season, they're they're really good about kind
of honing in and going want to know every.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
Single that comes from the that comes from Josh. We've
seen it with just casual observance of watching him play
in big moments, and you go into the analytics, it's
the same thing. He he's got an extra gear and
he seems to find it in this time of season.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Now, if Buffalo is able to win four of their
last five and their only loss is to the Eagles,
which would not be a conference loss, they would finish
twelve five and would have the top wild card seed
locked up. The only way that would be good enough
to win the division, though, is if the Patriots lose
three of their last four, with two of the three
(09:11):
being division losses, one obviously to Buffalo and head to head,
and then they'd have to lose to the Jets or Miami.
As we said at the top of this podcast, Buffalo
is projected to face the Ravens in Baltimore according to
the New York Times Playoff Machine, knowing the other projected
options would be Denver or Jacksonville in the wild card round.
Is there an opponent you would prefer over the Ravens
(09:35):
in that group?
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Yes, well Jacksonville, Yeah, I would not.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
That going to Jacksonville has yielded fruitful results of this
team under McDermott.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Either I would take. I would take any team in
the South except Houston. I don't want to go down
there either. Yeah, we had, we've seen that. But Indianapolis
or Jacksonville. I would take any either one of.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Those teams, not over though, with that No, not with.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
That defense, and going up there in the altitude late
in the year, it'll be bitter cold, dry, It'll be dry,
but it'll be bitter cold. Now, Buffalo's played well up there,
not that they've won every game up there, but Josh's
played well up there. Remember they had the nice game nineteen. Yeah,
but twenty twenty, those would be the ones that either
Jacksonville or Indianapolis coming out of the South would be
(10:19):
a more favorable matchup in my opinion.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Okay, yeah, I don't want to I don't want to
play Houston. That might be one of Houston or Denver.
They're not good matchups for Buffalo. I They're both very
good at stopping the pass because of their pass rushes,
so yeah, and.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
There's no way going to play them here, and.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Their run defenses are strong enough to slow down what
you do on the ground, even a league leading rushing attack.
So I don't think those are good matches for Buffalo
at all. You want to give me Jacksonville, I'll take
it in a second. You want to give me Indianapolis
talented team, a lot of highly skilled players. I just
think they're new to the postseason. I think you slow
(11:03):
down Jonathan Taylor, put the game in Daniel Jones hands,
and you probably have them Ravens tough in their building,
playoff tested, battle tested, is Lamar healthy though. That's that's
the big thing. I was watching those options.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
I was watching last week's game Cincinnati against Baltimore, where
Cincinnati lumped him up pretty good. Baltimore was all over
him in the early going. They had I say, a
likely muff a touchdown, Yeah, that he had. It was unbelievable.
Then they had another touchdown called back and that so
that game changed dramatically, and you would expect. I was
(11:41):
shocked when I saw the final score of that game.
When when you look back at it and Baltimore bolt
Baltimore loses only scores fourteen points against Cincinnatis defense, Well,
you see the reason. They had two touchdowns taken back
and so that's and that not only takes it off
of their ledger, but all so gives Cincinnati an extra possession.
(12:01):
So all that stuff being said, Baltimore doesn't look the same. Yeah,
they just don't. As you know, the bad breaks they got.
Lamar just doesn't look the same. And I'll say this
to Cincinnati did some dumb stuff defensively that I don't
think Buffalo would do. We'll just see.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
He's had three different injuries over the past month, knee, ankle, toe,
He's not moving the same way. I think it's impacting
his decision making because of you know, he's playing hurt
and it's distracting him. I think it's impacting how he
plays the dynamic athlete that he is. I mean, I
(12:48):
don't think I think he's only had I'm not sure
he's had an offensive touchdown since he's returned to the lineup.
It's been mostly rushing touchdowns for the Ravens and he
has not impacted them on the scoreboard nearly as much
as where you seeing him. There is a chance that Baltimore,
Kansas City, and Cincinnati all missed the playoffs. How would
(13:09):
that change your outlook on Buffalo's chances? This postseason, if
those clubs were all out of the playoff picture.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
Well, and if that's the case, there's no question Buffalo's
got the best quarterback in the conference in the playoffs SILF. Now,
Drake may is playing extremely well, no question. But Josh's
got a bigger engine and he's got a higher ceiling
and all that. Here's the problem. Yes, your quarterback's better
than anybody else in the tournament. But I don't know
(13:39):
that this roster and the team that's made up around Josh,
because of the injuries and the turnover and the stuff
we've seen, that he doesn't have more question marks than
any roster that's been around Josh and one of these
other tournaments they've been in. So I don't know that.
I don't know that the answers to the questions we
have about who the injuries, the pass rush, Bosa's health,
Ed Oliver's out, all the you know, all the injuries
(14:00):
that they've had, Michael Hoyts out. This surrounding cast around
Josh may have more question marks than any roster Josh
has gone to the tournament with it outside of maybe
two now to nineteen. Right, So yeah, I mean, you
love it that those quarterbacks are out of the mix
because it gives you, you know, the trump card every game.
(14:22):
But I don't know that this supporting cast has been
healthy enough and shown enough ability to overcome it that
it would make a difference. CJ.
Speaker 1 (14:29):
Stroud has not gotten it done in the playoffs for
the Texans. Daniel Jones is a mystery. Bo Nicks has
his detractors. They can't score points right now, right defense
is winning them games.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Drake May is a problem.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
May is a problem. Drake May is a problem for
stretches of this season. He's been the most efficient quarterback
in football, and he's a big play quarterback as well.
So and he's got an aces coordinator who has been
there and won Super Bowls and m Annuals. So that
(15:02):
guy's probably your biggest threat if those other Cats are
not in the playoffs, as has been the case for
the last several years. Let's pivot to the numbers game,
where we'll see if Steve can nail down some Bills
December history.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
Here we go.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Question number one, Steve, how many wins do you think
the Bills have in the month of December since twenty twenty,
so the last five Decembers how many total wins do
you think the Bills have concumulated?
Speaker 2 (15:32):
How many Sundays is that total? Give me that? Usually four?
All right, so it's five four twenty. Uh, well, they
had to won that where they lost it to throw
away a game, let's say twenty. I'll say they finished eighteen.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
You nailed it, Steve. It is exactly eighteen, exactly eighteen.
Question number two, how many times since twenty twenty have
the Bills gone undefeated in September.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Twenty to twenty one?
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Four undefeated in September since.
Speaker 2 (16:14):
Twenty September or December?
Speaker 1 (16:16):
December? December undefeated in December? I will say since twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Well, I mean three times.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Three times will be correct. Two for Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
I did the math on that because it had you
don't have two losses in that?
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Well you got you actually have three total losses. But yes, okay,
but you're on.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
My bad math two for two.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Question number three, since twenty twenty, what do you think
the Bills points per game average is in the month
of December since twenty twenty? Points per game average, I'll.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Say thirty two and change, oh so close, really thirty
one and.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Change thirty one points per game on the nose and
question number four since twenty twenty, which single season was
it that the Bills averaged the most points per game
in December? You know, over all those years they've averaged
thirty one. What's the high water mark in December? Which
year in that stretch? Twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, twenty
(17:18):
twenty two, twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, let's say
twenty twenty four, and Steve, you have gone got four
four in the numbers game running the table.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
That's girls, Steve.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
Is mister December. I've missed December twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
They fever got me. The first one that got me
when I got eighteen out of twenty win. That was
that was big.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Twenty twenty four, they averaged thirty seven point eight points per.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Year they had had the they remember they had the
LA game forty two that they lost and then they
scored forty four, forty eight, forty eight and beat against Troy. Yeah,
that was that.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
That juiced the number up a little bit. Let's go
uh in case you're wondering, in twenty twenty the Bills
were four and oh. In twenty twenty one, two and two,
twenty twenty two, four and oh twenty twenty three, four
and oh twenty twenty four, four and one.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Then they had to throw away game in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
Four, but that was in January. Oh okay, so that
didn't count. There was another loss mixed in there. I'm
not going to pretend to know where it was. But yeah,
four and one last year in the months of December.
They can go four and one this year in December, right,
and New England stubs their toe. You never know. Bills
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(18:37):
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with fandel Official sportsbook partner of the Buffalo Bills. Time
now for our one burning question, and this has to
do with Buffalo's defense. Does Jack Thompson and play on
(19:01):
the defensive side of the ball warrant more time at
the middle linebacker spot even when Terrell Bernard is healthy again?
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Uh yeah, I would say yes. The thing that you
know Milano has stayed healthy and seems to be playing
a little bit better. You see him making attackle once
in a while. He's not you know, he's not the
All Pro uh Matt Mlano three years ago, but he's
playing better. Shaq Thompson brings something to the table. And listen,
(19:31):
I'll say this though too. What we have noticed about
Shaq Thompson from the Pittsburgh game to the middle of
the week and coming into the Cincinnati game is his
leadership and what he brought to the table and the lead.
You know, he stood up in the meeting, he did,
you know, gave all this stuff and and got his
guys fired up. That's also what Terrell, That's why Terrell
Bernard is on the field. He's that the same He's
(19:51):
cut from that same cloth. So it will come down
to the guy they want on the field, how he
plays the physical and the and the tackling ability and
the size of Shaq or you know, the athleticism and
speed and playing in space of Terrell Bernard. Neither one
(20:12):
of you get the feeling. Neither one of those guys
will balk at any way. They are used. They're all
they're buying into whatever the plan is. So if you
if you switch them in and out on down and
distance for coverage and run stop or whatever whatever. I'm
sure neither guy will beef that at all. But Shaq
Thompson has earned more opportunities and we've we've talked about
(20:33):
it at length with the Sean McDermott era. When you
earn it, you get it, So it's hard to envision
him not getting more.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
Yeah, he has been a physical presence at the second
level of their defense. I think over the course of
the season when he has been in there, he's been
their most consistent linebacker. I don't think we're talking out
of school and saying that. And look, it's not an
issue right now because Bernard is dealing with a pretty
bad elbow injury. We don't know the nature of it,
(21:02):
but it kind of looked like it got dislocated. That's
not fun. It's gonna take him in it for him
to get right. But when he does come back, this
is a very good problem for the Bills to have
because all too often they get to the end of
the season and they don't have enough people.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
Having a us nurplus would be a welcome change for
this team going into the postseason.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
There's they have five games left. It's over a month.
It's week after week after week after week. They've still
got to get to the end of the season. They're
not out of this yet. They've got I mean, they're
not in the playoffs. They have you know, nothing is
settled yet. They've got a long way to go. And
that's you know, us sitting here and it's like, wow,
(21:44):
we got all these games, you know they got They've
played twelve games, they got five games left. It is
a long way. A third of the season is left.
It's a marathon. So they've got a long way to
go to get to the end of the season. I'm sure,
I'm abs one hundred percent sure that they're gonna need
Terrell Bernard back on the field at some point badly,
whether it's Milano sitting down, or whether it's Shaq Thompson
(22:05):
getting tweaked, or something other else happens where they were
Tarren Johnson gets nicked. Now they're gonna go three linebackers.
All of that's on the table because they got so
far to go. But yes, you know, Shaq Thompson has
made his presence felt. It is a good problem to
have when Bernard gets healthy if he can, but you're
gonna need him. You gotta get everybody healthy as you can,
(22:27):
as healthy as you possibly can.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
Like coach McDermott says, when people talk about backups and
you know the last three four guys on the roster,
he looks right at the media member that asks the
question and says, we're gonna need everybody. Yeah, he knows
all too well. This season is far too long. It's
a battle of attrition. You're gonna need everybody. Our closing
figure deals with wild card playoff teams and their Super
Bowl chances. In the Super Bowl era, seven wild card
(22:51):
teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl the
old playoff system, four seed has won it three times,
the five two times, and the sixth seed two times.
The last time a wild card team won at all
was in February of twenty twenty one, when the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers went from the five seed with Tom Brady
(23:13):
to Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Let's not that long ago. It is not.
Speaker 1 (23:17):
That'll do it. For this episode, be sure to subscribe
on whatever podcast platform you use, or watch us on
the Bills YouTube channel, because when you need to know
about the Bills, you need to check bills by the numbers.
Receive tasker. I'm Chris Brown. Thanks for listening.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
We'll catch you next time.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
Everybody
After a brief holiday hiatus, we are back here on
Bills by the Numbers, where we let the stats tell
you where the Bills are at. We're presented by Fan
Duel Make every moment more coming up? How well positioned
are the Bills in the AFC Conference playoff race? Is
the division title even a remote possibility? And what opponents
could be a bad postseason matchup for Buffalo? Steve is
(00:23):
quizzed on Bill's December history, and we'll have our one
burning question. Somebody get the shovel. We got to move
some snow. Oh, it's good to have you with us.
(00:45):
Steve Bill's Ball of Famous, Steve's Master on Bill's played
by playman Chris Brown, and we've made it to December.
Here in the twenty twenty five season, the Bills, heading
into Week fourteen, are in the seventh and final playoff
position at eight and four as the lowest seated wild
card team. That is, of course subject to change, as
eight teams are separated by three games in the lost
(01:07):
column with five to play in the AFC. Right now,
the New York Times playoff simulator projects the Bills to
finish eleven and six and be the five seed in
the afcmen the season is over. They have the Colts
and Jaguars as the six and seven seeds with ten
and seven records. Their division champions are New England, Denver, Jacksonville,
(01:29):
and Baltimore, which would mean the Bills would face the
Ravens in Baltimore in a rematch of last year's divisional playoffs.
Thoughts on that, Steve Tasker, that is juicy.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Yeah, I have not happy thoughts about that. Okay, let's
face it, though, when you get in them, nobody knows
better than the Buffalo Bills. When you get into the playoffs,
you're going to start meeting some really quality teams who
are really playing well and have figured some things out.
Whether they've been injured in the regular season or not,
they're overcoming it and they figured out how their best
(02:00):
way to win and they're very good at it. So
you're gonna it's not gonna be any cakewalk no matter
which of the division winners you get as a wild card.
It's gonna be an uphill battle. And so I'm I.
You know, the theme of this pod is, you know,
kind of this post game tournament, postseason tournament that.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
We're talking about, and how it's shaping up.
Speaker 2 (02:19):
I don't know if there is a favorable path to
get to the super Bowl for this team coming out
of the wildcard because they're all all the teams that
are division winners that seem like rough matchups right now.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Well right, but I think if you if you get
the top wild card seed, you're playing the conceivably weakest
division winner, and the Ravens are beat up. They're a
beat up crew. Derrick Henry does not look the same
as he did in September. Maybe those thirty one year
old legs are finally slowing down. I'm not dismissing Baltimore
(02:56):
as a walk don't get me wrong. Right, Plus, you're
in their building, and we know how when that crowd
gets behind them, if they go to a fast start,
they're a front running team.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
They're gonna have a chip on their shoulder from what
happened in Week one. They'll remember that. They'll remember that. Yeah,
I'm I get you, and you're right. But I'll say this,
just because Baltimore has the worst record doesn't mean in
a month and a half we got five weeks. Yes,
it doesn't mean that in five weeks they're not gonna
be the team you don't want to play. That's true,
(03:25):
a lot like the Cincinnati Bengals have been in years
past when they just missed the playoffs, where it's like, man,
I hope they don't get in. Yeah, right, So it
could be like that for any one of these division winners.
Although you know New England looks like that, has looked
like that for ten weeks, right, And best to luck.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
As to who the AFC South Champs gonna be. I mean,
that's would be the Colts, it could be the Texas,
it could be the Jaguars. You don't know.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
That may be the division champion that I might relish
playing the most.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Yeah, but I mean you don't know who the AFC
North champs gonna be.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
I mean, to your point on the Bengals, there are
two games out on the lost column at four and
eight with five to play. They could get in.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
I could get in.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
They could get in. They could win the division. The
division championship is the best route to the place.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Nobody has iced the division yet. Uh. Certainly, the New
England Patriots look far and away like they're gonna run
off with the East. They still haven't mathematically.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
We'll get into that.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
But yeah, the Ravens, Steelers, Bengals. Steelers out to a
fast start. Now they're stumbling. Year they're in flames. Ravens
just the opposite, stumbled out of the gates. Now they're cooking.
But they look hamstrung, no pun intended, look the same.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
He's injured, clearly.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
The Bengals, Joe Burrow's back in the saddle, and they
look they looked like grease lightning last week against the
Baltimore Ravens, SO and Cleveland. They may have the best
defense in the division right So, not that they're going anywhere. Yeah,
they're not gonna go anywhere, but they are they can
be a huge spoiler for any of these teams. So
I'm I'm with you. I'm you don't know who it's
(04:57):
going to be. It's a wide open race. There are
conceived within reason two and a half teams, the Steelers, Ravens,
and Bengals. And I like the Bengals better than Steelers
right now. Steelers are in flames.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
Bengals can't stop anybody. But if they could score thirty
five every week, I'll win more than they love.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Yeah, but in the long term, when you live like that,
it's not sustainable. It's not sustainable because you know, somebody
drops a pass and you lose.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
The Bills currently have a ninety one percent chance to
reach the postseason, sitting at eight and four, but just
an eight percent chance to win the division. New England,
as we know, has the division league by three games
over Buffalo with five to play. They also have a
superior division record, three and oh to Buffalo's two and
two mark. What's interesting is the Patriots are five and
two at home and a perfect six and oh on
(05:50):
the road. Buffalo faces them coming off of theirby in
week fifteen. If the Bills beat Cincinnati in Week fourteen,
their chances of win the division improved slightly to eleven percent.
If they follow that with a win in New England,
those chances improve to twenty four percent. The division is
a long shot at best, because they would also need
(06:11):
New England to fall off a cliff. But how likely
do you see the Bills running off a string of
wins in December? Let's start there.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
Yeah, I mean, I certainly think they're going to have
a winning record for the rest of the way. From Cincinnati,
New England, Cleveland, Philly and the Jets they're going to
win more than they lose. I don't know that they're
going to go four and one. They might, they might.
I don't know that you can go five and oh.
I don't know they're going to go five and oh
finish the season six and oh. Coming off the Pittsburgh game,
(06:40):
although it's going to be a tussle every game, I
think the Bills are going to play well enough to
do that. They've got Philly at home, They've got the
Jets at home. They've got Cincinnati at home. The New
England and Philly game are the ones that kind of
stand out as real issues. Philly, It'll be interesting to
see the kind of shape therein emotionally when they get here.
(07:01):
They are getting run through.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
The Ringer and Dallas is super hot right now and
in their division.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
Yes, their fans are unhappy, their team is unhappy. They're
getting picked apart in the media. They have all kinds
of stuff going on that they have to deal with.
Forget about the team they're playing. It's like putting fires out.
There's a good chance to go to need that game though.
In Week seventeen, absolutely so. The New England and Philly
games are the ones that you kind of look at
and go, man, here we go. But the other three
(07:27):
you're gonna be favored in, and you should be. And
they get a break with having the ones at home.
They've got at home. So yeah, the Bills could. The
Bills are always gonna have a winning record coming down.
They've played very well at this time of year in
years past. Their coaching staff and McDermott have done a
very nice job of finding like I said in the
beginning of the podcast this segment, they're good at figuring
(07:50):
out their best way to win, even after all the
injuries and after the turnovers and all the things that
have happened to them in years past. And they have
figured it out. And so I would imagine going to
continue to do that, and so they'll play some of
their best football coming down the stretch.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
They typically have under Sean McDermott. And so I'm bullish
on the Bills finishing strong here again. And I think
for some reason, with this group, when the picture of
what needs to happen for them to get where they
want to go comes clearer into focus here at the
(08:26):
end of the season, they're they're really good about kind
of honing in and going want to know every.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
Single that comes from the that comes from Josh. We've
seen it with just casual observance of watching him play
in big moments, and you go into the analytics, it's
the same thing. He he's got an extra gear and
he seems to find it in this time of season.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Now, if Buffalo is able to win four of their
last five and their only loss is to the Eagles,
which would not be a conference loss, they would finish
twelve five and would have the top wild card seed
locked up. The only way that would be good enough
to win the division, though, is if the Patriots lose
three of their last four, with two of the three
(09:11):
being division losses, one obviously to Buffalo and head to head,
and then they'd have to lose to the Jets or Miami.
As we said at the top of this podcast, Buffalo
is projected to face the Ravens in Baltimore according to
the New York Times Playoff Machine, knowing the other projected
options would be Denver or Jacksonville in the wild card round.
Is there an opponent you would prefer over the Ravens
(09:35):
in that group?
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Yes, well Jacksonville, Yeah, I would not.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
That going to Jacksonville has yielded fruitful results of this
team under McDermott.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Either I would take. I would take any team in
the South except Houston. I don't want to go down
there either. Yeah, we had, we've seen that. But Indianapolis
or Jacksonville. I would take any either one of.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Those teams, not over though, with that No, not with.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
That defense, and going up there in the altitude late
in the year, it'll be bitter cold, dry, It'll be dry,
but it'll be bitter cold. Now, Buffalo's played well up there,
not that they've won every game up there, but Josh's
played well up there. Remember they had the nice game nineteen. Yeah,
but twenty twenty, those would be the ones that either
Jacksonville or Indianapolis coming out of the South would be
(10:19):
a more favorable matchup in my opinion.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Okay, yeah, I don't want to I don't want to
play Houston. That might be one of Houston or Denver.
They're not good matchups for Buffalo. I They're both very
good at stopping the pass because of their pass rushes,
so yeah, and.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
There's no way going to play them here, and.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Their run defenses are strong enough to slow down what
you do on the ground, even a league leading rushing attack.
So I don't think those are good matches for Buffalo
at all. You want to give me Jacksonville, I'll take
it in a second. You want to give me Indianapolis
talented team, a lot of highly skilled players. I just
think they're new to the postseason. I think you slow
(11:03):
down Jonathan Taylor, put the game in Daniel Jones hands,
and you probably have them Ravens tough in their building,
playoff tested, battle tested, is Lamar healthy though. That's that's
the big thing. I was watching those options.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
I was watching last week's game Cincinnati against Baltimore, where
Cincinnati lumped him up pretty good. Baltimore was all over
him in the early going. They had I say, a
likely muff a touchdown, Yeah, that he had. It was unbelievable.
Then they had another touchdown called back and that so
that game changed dramatically, and you would expect. I was
(11:41):
shocked when I saw the final score of that game.
When when you look back at it and Baltimore bolt
Baltimore loses only scores fourteen points against Cincinnatis defense, Well,
you see the reason. They had two touchdowns taken back
and so that's and that not only takes it off
of their ledger, but all so gives Cincinnati an extra possession.
(12:01):
So all that stuff being said, Baltimore doesn't look the same. Yeah,
they just don't. As you know, the bad breaks they got.
Lamar just doesn't look the same. And I'll say this
to Cincinnati did some dumb stuff defensively that I don't
think Buffalo would do. We'll just see.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
He's had three different injuries over the past month, knee, ankle, toe,
He's not moving the same way. I think it's impacting
his decision making because of you know, he's playing hurt
and it's distracting him. I think it's impacting how he
plays the dynamic athlete that he is. I mean, I
(12:48):
don't think I think he's only had I'm not sure
he's had an offensive touchdown since he's returned to the lineup.
It's been mostly rushing touchdowns for the Ravens and he
has not impacted them on the scoreboard nearly as much
as where you seeing him. There is a chance that Baltimore,
Kansas City, and Cincinnati all missed the playoffs. How would
(13:09):
that change your outlook on Buffalo's chances? This postseason, if
those clubs were all out of the playoff picture.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
Well, and if that's the case, there's no question Buffalo's
got the best quarterback in the conference in the playoffs SILF. Now,
Drake may is playing extremely well, no question. But Josh's
got a bigger engine and he's got a higher ceiling
and all that. Here's the problem. Yes, your quarterback's better
than anybody else in the tournament. But I don't know
(13:39):
that this roster and the team that's made up around Josh,
because of the injuries and the turnover and the stuff
we've seen, that he doesn't have more question marks than
any roster that's been around Josh and one of these
other tournaments they've been in. So I don't know that.
I don't know that the answers to the questions we
have about who the injuries, the pass rush, Bosa's health,
Ed Oliver's out, all the you know, all the injuries
(14:00):
that they've had, Michael Hoyts out. This surrounding cast around
Josh may have more question marks than any roster Josh
has gone to the tournament with it outside of maybe
two now to nineteen. Right, So yeah, I mean, you
love it that those quarterbacks are out of the mix
because it gives you, you know, the trump card every game.
(14:22):
But I don't know that this supporting cast has been
healthy enough and shown enough ability to overcome it that
it would make a difference. CJ.
Speaker 1 (14:29):
Stroud has not gotten it done in the playoffs for
the Texans. Daniel Jones is a mystery. Bo Nicks has
his detractors. They can't score points right now, right defense
is winning them games.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Drake May is a problem.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
May is a problem. Drake May is a problem for
stretches of this season. He's been the most efficient quarterback
in football, and he's a big play quarterback as well.
So and he's got an aces coordinator who has been
there and won Super Bowls and m Annuals. So that
(15:02):
guy's probably your biggest threat if those other Cats are
not in the playoffs, as has been the case for
the last several years. Let's pivot to the numbers game,
where we'll see if Steve can nail down some Bills
December history.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
Here we go.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Question number one, Steve, how many wins do you think
the Bills have in the month of December since twenty twenty,
so the last five Decembers how many total wins do
you think the Bills have concumulated?
Speaker 2 (15:32):
How many Sundays is that total? Give me that? Usually four?
All right, so it's five four twenty. Uh, well, they
had to won that where they lost it to throw
away a game, let's say twenty. I'll say they finished eighteen.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
You nailed it, Steve. It is exactly eighteen, exactly eighteen.
Question number two, how many times since twenty twenty have
the Bills gone undefeated in September.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
Twenty to twenty one?
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Four undefeated in September since.
Speaker 2 (16:14):
Twenty September or December?
Speaker 1 (16:16):
December? December undefeated in December? I will say since twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Well, I mean three times.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Three times will be correct. Two for Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
I did the math on that because it had you
don't have two losses in that?
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Well you got you actually have three total losses. But yes, okay,
but you're on.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
My bad math two for two.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Question number three, since twenty twenty, what do you think
the Bills points per game average is in the month
of December since twenty twenty? Points per game average, I'll.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Say thirty two and change, oh so close, really thirty
one and.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Change thirty one points per game on the nose and
question number four since twenty twenty, which single season was
it that the Bills averaged the most points per game
in December? You know, over all those years they've averaged
thirty one. What's the high water mark in December? Which
year in that stretch? Twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, twenty
(17:18):
twenty two, twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, let's say
twenty twenty four, and Steve, you have gone got four
four in the numbers game running the table.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
That's girls, Steve.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
Is mister December. I've missed December twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
They fever got me. The first one that got me
when I got eighteen out of twenty win. That was
that was big.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Twenty twenty four, they averaged thirty seven point eight points per.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Year they had had the they remember they had the
LA game forty two that they lost and then they
scored forty four, forty eight, forty eight and beat against Troy. Yeah,
that was that.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
That juiced the number up a little bit. Let's go
uh in case you're wondering, in twenty twenty the Bills
were four and oh. In twenty twenty one, two and two,
twenty twenty two, four and oh twenty twenty three, four
and oh twenty twenty four, four and one.
Speaker 2 (18:12):
Then they had to throw away game in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
Four, but that was in January. Oh okay, so that
didn't count. There was another loss mixed in there. I'm
not going to pretend to know where it was. But yeah,
four and one last year in the months of December.
They can go four and one this year in December, right,
and New England stubs their toe. You never know. Bills
fans get in on the action with FanDuel America's number
(18:37):
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way you want. Plus, with live betting, you'll get updated
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with fandel Official sportsbook partner of the Buffalo Bills. Time
now for our one burning question, and this has to
do with Buffalo's defense. Does Jack Thompson and play on
(19:01):
the defensive side of the ball warrant more time at
the middle linebacker spot even when Terrell Bernard is healthy again?
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Uh yeah, I would say yes. The thing that you
know Milano has stayed healthy and seems to be playing
a little bit better. You see him making attackle once
in a while. He's not you know, he's not the
All Pro uh Matt Mlano three years ago, but he's
playing better. Shaq Thompson brings something to the table. And listen,
(19:31):
I'll say this though too. What we have noticed about
Shaq Thompson from the Pittsburgh game to the middle of
the week and coming into the Cincinnati game is his
leadership and what he brought to the table and the lead.
You know, he stood up in the meeting, he did,
you know, gave all this stuff and and got his
guys fired up. That's also what Terrell, That's why Terrell
Bernard is on the field. He's that the same He's
(19:51):
cut from that same cloth. So it will come down
to the guy they want on the field, how he
plays the physical and the and the tackling ability and
the size of Shaq or you know, the athleticism and
speed and playing in space of Terrell Bernard. Neither one
(20:12):
of you get the feeling. Neither one of those guys
will balk at any way. They are used. They're all
they're buying into whatever the plan is. So if you
if you switch them in and out on down and
distance for coverage and run stop or whatever whatever. I'm
sure neither guy will beef that at all. But Shaq
Thompson has earned more opportunities and we've we've talked about
(20:33):
it at length with the Sean McDermott era. When you
earn it, you get it, So it's hard to envision
him not getting more.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
Yeah, he has been a physical presence at the second
level of their defense. I think over the course of
the season when he has been in there, he's been
their most consistent linebacker. I don't think we're talking out
of school and saying that. And look, it's not an
issue right now because Bernard is dealing with a pretty
bad elbow injury. We don't know the nature of it,
(21:02):
but it kind of looked like it got dislocated. That's
not fun. It's gonna take him in it for him
to get right. But when he does come back, this
is a very good problem for the Bills to have
because all too often they get to the end of
the season and they don't have enough people.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
Having a us nurplus would be a welcome change for
this team going into the postseason.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
There's they have five games left. It's over a month.
It's week after week after week after week. They've still
got to get to the end of the season. They're
not out of this yet. They've got I mean, they're
not in the playoffs. They have you know, nothing is
settled yet. They've got a long way to go. And
that's you know, us sitting here and it's like, wow,
(21:44):
we got all these games, you know they got They've
played twelve games, they got five games left. It is
a long way. A third of the season is left.
It's a marathon. So they've got a long way to
go to get to the end of the season. I'm sure,
I'm abs one hundred percent sure that they're gonna need
Terrell Bernard back on the field at some point badly,
whether it's Milano sitting down, or whether it's Shaq Thompson
(22:05):
getting tweaked, or something other else happens where they were
Tarren Johnson gets nicked. Now they're gonna go three linebackers.
All of that's on the table because they got so
far to go. But yes, you know, Shaq Thompson has
made his presence felt. It is a good problem to
have when Bernard gets healthy if he can, but you're
gonna need him. You gotta get everybody healthy as you can,
(22:27):
as healthy as you possibly can.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
Like coach McDermott says, when people talk about backups and
you know the last three four guys on the roster,
he looks right at the media member that asks the
question and says, we're gonna need everybody. Yeah, he knows
all too well. This season is far too long. It's
a battle of attrition. You're gonna need everybody. Our closing
figure deals with wild card playoff teams and their Super
Bowl chances. In the Super Bowl era, seven wild card
(22:51):
teams have gone on to win the Super Bowl the
old playoff system, four seed has won it three times,
the five two times, and the sixth seed two times.
The last time a wild card team won at all
was in February of twenty twenty one, when the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers went from the five seed with Tom Brady
(23:13):
to Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Let's not that long ago. It is not.
Speaker 1 (23:17):
That'll do it. For this episode, be sure to subscribe
on whatever podcast platform you use, or watch us on
the Bills YouTube channel, because when you need to know
about the Bills, you need to check bills by the numbers.
Receive tasker. I'm Chris Brown. Thanks for listening.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
We'll catch you next time.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
Everybody
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