October 9, 2025 • 25 mins
On this week's episode of Bills by the Numbers presented by FanDuel, Chris Brown and Steve Tasker discuss whether the defense can hold on despite injuries and suspensions to the roster. What does it look like when they're healthy and player return? The two then share their thoughts on if the offense may have to change their approach to aid the defensive shortfalls, if the team needs to make a move to bolster the defense, and Steve is quizzed on possession figures for the Bills and their opponents in The Numbers Game. Finally, the two give their answer to this week's One Burning Question, which starting position would you make a move for?
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good to have you back here on Bills by the Numbers,
where we let the stats tell you where the Bills
are at. We're presented by fan Duel make every moment
more coming up with the defense still shorthanded by injury
and suspension, to the upense shift.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Its approach to help them.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Is it necessary to make a trade acquisition for the
defense at cornerback? And where can special teams step it
up to assist? It's an all hands on dec edition now,
(00:40):
pleasure to have you with us here on Bills by
the Numbers. He's Bill's Wall of Famers, team's pet, Bill's
Wall of Famer.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Steve Casker, good grief.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
What's wrong with me? I'm Bill as much usually.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
I'm Bill's play by playman Chris Brown, And we begin
with an overarching look at Buffalo's team, and there is
no mistaking that the Bills are lacking manpower on de
defense due to injury and suspension, and it appears to
be limiting them in terms of the calls defensive coordinator
Bobby Babbage can make, and to a certain extent, it
is compromising the unit's ability to play as a cohesive
(01:13):
eleven man team only fifteen defensive players for Buffalo have
played in all five games this season. That's tied for
the fewest among the twenty eight teams that have yet
to have a bye. Baltimore and Indianapolis are the others. Now,
we're not saying that players aren't doing their level best
to be their best one to eleventh, but for a
defense that was already a bit in transition in terms
(01:36):
of new pieces and an influx of youth, it doesn't
feel as tied together as it's been in previous years.
And that's not an easy thing to fix in a
matchup league if you don't have the guys to effectively
match up. So does the defense just hang on and
manage it until they get to the bye week?
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Steve Well, I don't think they have much choice. Some
mean they're gonna have to do that. So yeah, it's
it's easy to step back and go, oh, well, we
got you know, there's not that much to fix. Certainly
the defense could get healthy that would give them a
better handle. The only thing you're worried about now is
that when they do get healthy, there's still not enough.
(02:17):
I believe they are going to get healthy. Ed Oliver
will get back on the field. I think at some
point Dorian Strong and Max Harrison will be available. You know,
Keyante Jenkins, the whole crew is going to have a
chance to get on the field. And when that happens,
then you've got to reevaluate. That doesn't say anything about Hoyt,
Nogan Jobi. Those guys will help. They're gonna be solid pros.
(02:40):
Hoyt has got a chance to really uptick, give them
an uptick on their pass rush, the whole thing. So, yes,
there's no reason to start shuffling the deck now, even
given you know the times and you know where the
third down problems they've had, the red zone problems they've had,
the run stopping problems they've had at times throughout the
first five games. So yeah, there's no reason to turn
(03:03):
it upside down.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
I get the feeling that, knowing you're getting Ogunjobi and
Hoyt back after the bye, there seems to be this
sense of, well, let's just see what that looks like
first before we make any decisions about potential trade acquisitions
free agent signings, to address what we deem could be
(03:29):
an area that's thin, either A in terms of talent
or B in terms of just bodies. I get the
sense that McDermott and Bean want to see what it
looks like, knowing they have a couple of players coming
back to the fold before they make any decisions that
could be deemed rash. Now, the second part of this
(03:50):
brings me back to the old Colts teams with Peyton
Manning when they had a defensive unit that did not
have the manpower either, and what they did to prop
up their defense was have their offense execute long, time
consuming drives to shorten the game, give their opponents fewer
possessions to reduce their opportunities to score. Peyton Manning would
(04:12):
often run the play clock down to under three seconds
on every play to chew up as much clock as possible.
First question, do you believe with the consistency and productivity
of Buffalo's run game that such an approach is possible
if deemed necessary?
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Possible? Yes, particularly with their run game, like you said,
James Cook gives them that ability. They struggle to do
that against the Patriots, although I don't think that was
part of the overarching plan. When you're trailing in a game,
you know you need to get back in it. So
I yeah, the run game and their offensive production does
seem to make it possible. Even with Josh's ability to
(04:50):
dink and dunk and throw short passes and stay on
the field. Teams have done a good job keeping an
umbrella on their defense and not letting the Bills take
a lid off. We've heard lots of b Bills fans
over the course the last few weeks say, we can't
take the lid off the defense. We can't take the
lid off the defense. There's nobody that goes deep. Listen,
they're not all. That's one thing that the Bills opponents
(05:13):
are making concerted effort to do. And the Bills have
been quite happy to score their thirty plus points a game,
taking advantage of what they are giving them. So I think, yeah,
this offense does have the manpower and the horse power
to do whatever they want offensively if it's in their
game plan. And James Cook is really a big catalyst
(05:33):
in that. No.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Yeah, I think there's two sides to the coin here.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
If you decide that your defense is so shorthanded you
need to help them by holding on to the ball longer, one, yes,
you can do that, But if you're scoring thirty plus points,
it probably doesn't matter anyway, because this defense has proven
it's good enough to at least win you games if
you score thirty or more. But in a week where
(05:59):
you don't like New England in week five, is it
more prudent to assist your defense with a longer, time
consuming drive and give that opponent fewer possessions.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
It's hard to predict, like, Hey, I don't think we're
gonna score thirty this week, so let's do this.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
You kind of have to let the game unfold first
before you maybe adopt such an approach. But I think
it's something to think about if you get in a
type game like that and your defense is struggling, where
you might say, hey, let's grind this thing out and
hold on to the ball, you know, cause I think
to your point, the offense is good enough to say,
let's just go ten to eleven plays here, right, and
(06:42):
then you know, put points on the board. The second
question is do the numbers indicate that the Bills are
doing some of this already? Buffalo currently leads the NFL
in time of possession at thirty four minutes and ten
seconds of possession time per game.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
In three of their.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
Five game play they've had one more possession than their opponents,
and the other two they have been even in total
possessions Dolphins Patriots, so they've never been out possessed in
a game yet this season. But only eleven of their
fifty three possessions have used five minutes or more of
game clock. That's a little less than twenty one percent
(07:21):
of their possessions, which would indicate they're not really making
a concerted effort to lengthen possessions and hold on to
the ball.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
But should they.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
Not in the first half of games. No, you gotta
come out in the first half because you know, you
never know how any game is gonna unfold, and you
said it alterally, you kind of wait to see how
the game unfolds. You need to come out and push
the gas and score as many points as you can,
as as often as you can, and get then in
the second half, if that other team has kept up
with you, keep your foot on the gas and keep going.
(07:54):
But if they have missed on a couple of their possessions,
you're up by ten, by fourteen, by seventeen points, then yeah,
I mean you just linked shorten.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
The game like they did against the Jets in week.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
Exactly like they did against the Jets, like they have
done against the Dolphins later in the game. That's just
the way the game is played. So you need to
see the game unfold. I don't think it's accurate or
prudent to go into a game with a game plan
of we hope they don't score on us. You know,
we we hope that they you know, that we can
(08:27):
keep them off the board. Now, you don't go in
playing defense on offense. You go in trying to score, score,
score and if they and put the pressure on them
to keep up if they can. And we've seen it
over the years, a lot of teams just aren't built
for it. They just don't have the horses. They're not
They don't have a quarterback or weapons, or an offense
an offensive line like Buffalo does. And every so often
(08:50):
they'll do what Buffalo did against the New England Patriots.
They cough it up multiple times, mate, or they get
a they don't get a third down, they over you know,
or they know they have to settle for a field goal.
When you're scoring touchdowns. They just can't keep up. So
when you get a team that if your offense is
putting pressure on that team with possessions, they just run
(09:11):
out and then late in the game. We've seen it
dozens of times with this Bills team, and now it
works really well with James Cook. They hand it off
and they can grind out some first downs and that's
what put games away.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Bill's opponents have scored on forty two percent of their
possessions through five games. That puts the Bill's defense twentieth
in that category. Twenty six percent of their opponent drives
result in a touchdown that ranks twenty first. Buffalo's defense
forces a three and out thirty four percent of the time.
That ranks fifteenth, and they are nineteenth after five games
(09:47):
played in third down defense. So when it comes to
giving up points, the Bill's defense is lower third of
the league, and when it comes to getting off the field,
Buffalo's defense is at or.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Near the middle of the league.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
Can they reduce the score as the season wears on,
that's the fifty million dollar question. If they can, well,
you got nothing to worry about, but you don't know
who's coming back into the lineup. And granted, the coaching
staff likely knows a lot more about this than we do.
But if you're not getting horses back aside from you know,
(10:19):
Ogunjobi and Hoyt. Notwithstanding, like if Hairston's going to take
longer to get back in the lineup and get up
to speed and get on the field at a position
where you're currently very thin. With Dorian Strong also on ir,
it may prompt you to think about either making an acquisition.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
But I think if the Bills offense.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Simply gets back to scoring points and not turning the
ball over and they're out possessing teams each and every week,
as the first five games have indicated, you probably don't
have to do anything extra on offense to help the defense.
Just keep on scoring and if you score thirty plus
you should be okay, and it has eighty percent your game.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
And it does have Bills fans clutching their pearls a
little bit because this defense, while the numbers are what
middle there, the fifteenth and nineteenth and third down, fifteenth
in possession, the forcing three and outs nineteenth and third
down defense, it looks worse than that because the Bills
get turnovers, so the team's moving, moving, moving, moving, so
(11:21):
it looks like you have no defense. Then they cough
it up and you tend to forget about the fact
that they just had a drive that they were still moving.
He kind of it kind of makes it seem like
the defense is worse than it is because they get
finger quotes lucky breaks with turnovers. So Bills fans really
have probably a worse opinion about the defense than even
(11:42):
the numbers show. And so that's why it's you ask
your question yourself, like, how what do we need to
do to stop that?
Speaker 1 (11:50):
Yes, And here's the other thing to think about. The
Bills don't face an offense that's better than twentieth in
points per game until they play Tampa Bay at home
on November sixteenth. Now be misleading too, because, as we know,
bad matchups can lead to more big plays and extended
drives and ultimately points for opponents. See Stefan Diggs this
week against Atlanta is a prime example. There are bad
(12:13):
matchups across the board for Buffalo's defense b Jean Robinson
against Buffalo's run defense, not to mention that he leads
the Falcons in receiving. Drake London, a six to four
slot receiver, against Taron Johnson, Kyle Pitts, a six to
six tight end who's finally producing in a week where
you don't have Milano and Darnell Mooney a burner on
the outside if he returns from a hamstring injury off
(12:34):
the buy with the state of Buffalo's defense health wise,
do they have the horses to run with all those
skill players.
Speaker 3 (12:41):
Well, here's yes. It's gonna be a tough matchup, no question.
They're gonna make some plays on our defense, no question
most teams do. The thing that has kept Atlanta from
doing that is exactly what Bills fans saw from the
Bills against New England. They did do it to themse elves.
(13:02):
It's not as efficient an offense as the Bills put
on the field. If and I know it's kind of
one of these esoteric terms we say, well they're efficient. Well,
that means the Bill's offense they stay on the field
when they want to, They get first downs, they score
points on a big part, a big percentage of their drives.
They don't usually last week when I was taking they
(13:23):
don't turn it over, Josh, is very difficult to sack.
All of those things we have talked about in the
weeks leading up to this makes the Bills offense really
hard to defend. They're hard to get off the field.
They're hard to keep out of the end zone or
out of the field goal range. And most offenses are
not like that. Bill's offense gives you this sense that, well,
(13:46):
if our guys are doing everybody else is doing. No,
they're not. Atlanta's got to take a step forward offensively
in their efficiency, not in the fact that they have
great players that They've got to find a way to
do it. Every single drive, every single possession, get first downs,
possess the ball, get into field goal range, threaten for
a touchdown, and if you don't get it, take the
(14:08):
field goal. A lot of teams can't do that, and
Atlanta has not shown the ability to do that at
a high rate like the Bills.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Have on a consistent basis.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
For that's the difference. Certainly, they got they look great
getting off the bus.
Speaker 2 (14:20):
They got to shut out against Carolina.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
Man, they they shoot themselves in the foot, I mean
they can't. They don't know how to clean their own weapon,
you know. I mean they're they're struggling. Uh that's now.
If they do, certainly you're gonna get a game like
they can beat Washington and they can beat Tampa Bay.
They can shoot, they can show up, but they're a
little bit of a roller coaster now, and you can
point to their youth, a little bit of that, and
(14:44):
maybe some continuity, new head coach, quarterback, some of that.
Some of that's going on over there. But man, oh man,
if they it's one of those things Atlanta fans are saying, Man,
if they could just click a little better, and Bills
fans can relate to that, probably some in the early
days of Josh Allen.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
Finally, on this topic, can special teams do more to
assist the defense with longer fields to defend? Granted, there's
only so much you can control. Their punk coverage has
been good at ranks eighth. Kick coverage ranked sixteenth in
the league or seventeenth in the league, but the hidden
yards seem to have favored the opposition the last couple
of weeks in two. In Week three, two of their
(15:20):
nine possessions inside their twenty yard line their opponent just
one and a four yard difference in average drive start.
In Week four, three of their eleven possessions inside their
own fifteen yard line their opponent with just one and
a twelve yard difference in average drive start.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
Week five, four of.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Their ten possessions inside their own twenty their opponent with
just one and an eleven yard difference in average drive start.
I don't have to tell Steve that those yards add
up and put more of a burden on your offense.
But special teams has to provide more as well, do
they not?
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Absolutely? Now it is not just certainly special teams dictate
about ninety to ninety five percent of your field position,
but your offense and their productivity also has a hand
in that. Certainly, if you can get an offensive drive
that has the the tipping point is like seven plays,
it's a first down and then another first down and
(16:18):
then one play into it, or you know, punning it
away on the seventh play.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
That can help you flip the field.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
That helps you flip the field, because a forty yard
net is a forty yard net if you're kicking it
from your ten, it's only out to the fifty, so
that your offense is a part of that equation. So, yes,
you're right, And you look back all the possessions that
New England had ten eleven yards per possession, it's over
they had three, they had eleven percent. It's one hundred
(16:46):
and thirty yards one hundred yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Yeah, those are those are the hidden yards.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
That one hundred and twenty yards of hidden field position
that is in your kicking game, you've got to fight
against drive start. You've got to fight against that's eleven
yards difference on your drive start. You had eleven possessions
one hundred and twenty one yards, right, something like that.
It's a lot of yards that you got to open
over one hundred yeah. Yeah, But a lot of that
(17:14):
is a function and it is complementary football. And there's
I don't think the Bills special teams had a bad
game at all last week against the Patriots, but they
kicked out of their own end.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
It was an accumulation of a lot of little things
that at the end of the game looks like a
big thing.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
That's right, and you realize that it's just a drag
on your productivity, both on offense and defense.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
We spin it forward now to the Numbers game where
Steve will be quizzed on possession figures for the Bills
and their opponents.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Boy does that sound sexy.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
Here we go question number one this season, Steve, do
you believe the Bills or their opponents have more scoring
drives of nine plays or more.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
Take their opponents.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
It's actually the Bills step.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
They have sixteen drives of nine plays or more. Their
opponents aren't far behind, they have ten. Because I think
it's how many sixteen drives off nine plays or more?
I would opponents have ten, which you know, I think
again back to the perspective and the perception, it's a
function of, oh, how much the defense has been on
the field and allowed points.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
I think people generally, and yourself included, feel like it's.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
More this is a it's also a nod to how
efficient their offense has been. I mean they, wow, that's yeah,
long sustained drive, long sustained drives kind they And it's
also certainly helped the defense. It's also a function of
keeping the Bills off of the big play wagon. Yes,
teams really have made a concerted effort to put a
(18:50):
lid on Josh's arm, and they've been done a.
Speaker 2 (18:52):
Really good job of it. Question number two.
Speaker 1 (18:55):
Since twenty ten, Buffalo's current time of possession average of
thirty four minutes and ten seconds per game is the
highest single season total over that span. Granted it's just
been five games, not a whole season. What time do
you believe since twenty ten is the next highest possession
time in a single season. Like, I'll give you a
(19:15):
fifteen second average, but give me like a thirty four
to ten is the high water mark since twenty ten?
Speaker 2 (19:22):
What do you think would be the next highest possession
and that's for a whole season?
Speaker 3 (19:25):
Thirty one to thirty.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Oh, you're right on it, and I'll give it to
you because you're thirty one forty six in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
Good job, Seve. That's a hard number to get with
a dart.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
Oh, it is a dark, but it's not really a
dark because I look around every once in a while
you look at that. Yeah, you know, so I'm thinking, Okay,
it's usually pretty close.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
So you were on it. Question number three, let's go yes.
Speaker 1 (19:48):
In only four other seasons since twenty ten have the
Bills managed thirty one minutes of possession time or more,
not counting this season. Three of them took place in
the Josh Allen twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, and twenty
twenty three. Which year since twenty ten do you think
the other time happened? So three happened during the Josh
(20:12):
Allen era since twenty ten. When do you think the
other season was when they had at least thirty one
minutes of possession time on offense?
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Twenty twelve or twenty thirteen, incorrect, twenty fifteen.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
It was twenty fifteen, Steve Well done.
Speaker 3 (20:36):
I was surprised that it was one of the recks,
Ryan Well.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
The reason it was was in twenty fifteen the Bills
led the league in rushing with Lashawn McCoy, and they
had thirty one minutes in eighteen seconds of possession time.
Question number four, Where do you think the Bills rank
right now in points per possession?
Speaker 3 (21:03):
Who? I'll oh? I'll say one. They are not first,
gotta be their top three.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
They are top three.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
I'll say two.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
They are tied per second at two point eight nine
points per drive. They're tied with Detroit only better than them.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
The team in the top spot.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
You're Indianapolis Colt Steve three point three nine points per drive.
They are humming right now.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
Good for them.
Speaker 2 (21:36):
You're not ready to be believer in that.
Speaker 3 (21:38):
I'm not a believer. Don't I'm not a believer.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
Why not too soon?
Speaker 3 (21:43):
Daniel Jones? Okay, he said, when they get he can't
carry a.
Speaker 1 (21:50):
Team Okay, I don't think he doesn't have to though
they have Jonathan Taylor, I know, but sooner or later,
you know, you think he's going to turn into Sam
Darnold the playoffs, right, that's your belief.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
If they get there, they're playing like a playoff team.
No question. Defense is good enough, their running game is outstanding.
You know, they got some guys, yeah, no question. But
they're gonna need a team. They're gonna meet a team
that can match them, and they're gonna need somebody to
step up, and it ain't gonna be their quarterback.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (22:22):
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Speaker 2 (22:37):
We now ask our one burning question.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
If you could add a reliable, productive starter at any
one position right now for the Bills, where would you
do it?
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Corner? Yeah, they're just too ravaged right now by injury.
Got Max Harriston's out, Dorian Strong's out, They're on, I
are there on, I are You've got Trey and Christian
Benford and JaMarcus Ingram, Yeah, and that you know that's
thin behind them. You'd probably probably plug in Hancock, right, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
I mean you have Codrington, but he can't play outside, right.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
So yeah, that would probably be the one.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
Yeah, I mean it is precariously thin there.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Yeah, they can't lose another body, So.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
The easy answer is corner.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
I think if I had to pick any other position,
maybe an extra linebacker because you're Roryan Williams is still
nicked up. Miloniald's going to be out week to week, Like,
you could really use an extra guy there. I mean,
you have people on the practice squad you can call
up if necessary. You know, Charlow is a nice young player,
(23:46):
but man is he inexperienced? Yeah, it's I mean, you
got Shaq Thompson, but boy, it's thin there. So this
just speaks to how shorthanded you feel on defense with
the Bills right now. Our closing figure addresses what has
been a trouble spot in the Bills schedule for years.
(24:08):
In each of the last three seasons, Buffalo has lost
their Week five game. Last Sunday was the third straight
Week five game the Bills have lost. The good news
is Buffalo has won each of their last three Week
six games. Only once in the last six years have
the Bills won both their Week five and Week.
Speaker 2 (24:29):
Six games back to back.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
It's a scheduling anomaly that no one can explain. It
happened back in the twenty twenty two season when they
beat Pittsburgh and Kansas City back to back.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
That'll do it for this edition.
Speaker 1 (24:42):
Please subscribe on whatever podcast platform you use, or watch
and listen to us on the Bills YouTube channel, because
when you need to know about the Bills, you need
to check Bills by the Numbers for Steve Tasker on
Chris Brown.
Speaker 2 (24:53):
Thanks for watching. We'll catch you next time.
Speaker 3 (24:55):
Everybody st
Good to have you back here on Bills by the Numbers,
where we let the stats tell you where the Bills
are at. We're presented by fan Duel make every moment
more coming up with the defense still shorthanded by injury
and suspension, to the upense shift.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Its approach to help them.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Is it necessary to make a trade acquisition for the
defense at cornerback? And where can special teams step it
up to assist? It's an all hands on dec edition now,
(00:40):
pleasure to have you with us here on Bills by
the Numbers. He's Bill's Wall of Famers, team's pet, Bill's
Wall of Famer.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Steve Casker, good grief.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
What's wrong with me? I'm Bill as much usually.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
I'm Bill's play by playman Chris Brown, And we begin
with an overarching look at Buffalo's team, and there is
no mistaking that the Bills are lacking manpower on de
defense due to injury and suspension, and it appears to
be limiting them in terms of the calls defensive coordinator
Bobby Babbage can make, and to a certain extent, it
is compromising the unit's ability to play as a cohesive
(01:13):
eleven man team only fifteen defensive players for Buffalo have
played in all five games this season. That's tied for
the fewest among the twenty eight teams that have yet
to have a bye. Baltimore and Indianapolis are the others. Now,
we're not saying that players aren't doing their level best
to be their best one to eleventh, but for a
defense that was already a bit in transition in terms
(01:36):
of new pieces and an influx of youth, it doesn't
feel as tied together as it's been in previous years.
And that's not an easy thing to fix in a
matchup league if you don't have the guys to effectively
match up. So does the defense just hang on and
manage it until they get to the bye week?
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Steve Well, I don't think they have much choice. Some
mean they're gonna have to do that. So yeah, it's
it's easy to step back and go, oh, well, we
got you know, there's not that much to fix. Certainly
the defense could get healthy that would give them a
better handle. The only thing you're worried about now is
that when they do get healthy, there's still not enough.
(02:17):
I believe they are going to get healthy. Ed Oliver
will get back on the field. I think at some
point Dorian Strong and Max Harrison will be available. You know,
Keyante Jenkins, the whole crew is going to have a
chance to get on the field. And when that happens,
then you've got to reevaluate. That doesn't say anything about Hoyt,
Nogan Jobi. Those guys will help. They're gonna be solid pros.
(02:40):
Hoyt has got a chance to really uptick, give them
an uptick on their pass rush, the whole thing. So, yes,
there's no reason to start shuffling the deck now, even
given you know the times and you know where the
third down problems they've had, the red zone problems they've had,
the run stopping problems they've had at times throughout the
first five games. So yeah, there's no reason to turn
(03:03):
it upside down.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
I get the feeling that, knowing you're getting Ogunjobi and
Hoyt back after the bye, there seems to be this
sense of, well, let's just see what that looks like
first before we make any decisions about potential trade acquisitions
free agent signings, to address what we deem could be
(03:29):
an area that's thin, either A in terms of talent
or B in terms of just bodies. I get the
sense that McDermott and Bean want to see what it
looks like, knowing they have a couple of players coming
back to the fold before they make any decisions that
could be deemed rash. Now, the second part of this
(03:50):
brings me back to the old Colts teams with Peyton
Manning when they had a defensive unit that did not
have the manpower either, and what they did to prop
up their defense was have their offense execute long, time
consuming drives to shorten the game, give their opponents fewer
possessions to reduce their opportunities to score. Peyton Manning would
(04:12):
often run the play clock down to under three seconds
on every play to chew up as much clock as possible.
First question, do you believe with the consistency and productivity
of Buffalo's run game that such an approach is possible
if deemed necessary?
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Possible? Yes, particularly with their run game, like you said,
James Cook gives them that ability. They struggle to do
that against the Patriots, although I don't think that was
part of the overarching plan. When you're trailing in a game,
you know you need to get back in it. So
I yeah, the run game and their offensive production does
seem to make it possible. Even with Josh's ability to
(04:50):
dink and dunk and throw short passes and stay on
the field. Teams have done a good job keeping an
umbrella on their defense and not letting the Bills take
a lid off. We've heard lots of b Bills fans
over the course the last few weeks say, we can't
take the lid off the defense. We can't take the
lid off the defense. There's nobody that goes deep. Listen,
they're not all. That's one thing that the Bills opponents
(05:13):
are making concerted effort to do. And the Bills have
been quite happy to score their thirty plus points a game,
taking advantage of what they are giving them. So I think, yeah,
this offense does have the manpower and the horse power
to do whatever they want offensively if it's in their
game plan. And James Cook is really a big catalyst
(05:33):
in that. No.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Yeah, I think there's two sides to the coin here.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
If you decide that your defense is so shorthanded you
need to help them by holding on to the ball longer, one, yes,
you can do that, But if you're scoring thirty plus points,
it probably doesn't matter anyway, because this defense has proven
it's good enough to at least win you games if
you score thirty or more. But in a week where
(05:59):
you don't like New England in week five, is it
more prudent to assist your defense with a longer, time
consuming drive and give that opponent fewer possessions.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
It's hard to predict, like, Hey, I don't think we're
gonna score thirty this week, so let's do this.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
You kind of have to let the game unfold first
before you maybe adopt such an approach. But I think
it's something to think about if you get in a
type game like that and your defense is struggling, where
you might say, hey, let's grind this thing out and
hold on to the ball, you know, cause I think
to your point, the offense is good enough to say,
let's just go ten to eleven plays here, right, and
(06:42):
then you know, put points on the board. The second
question is do the numbers indicate that the Bills are
doing some of this already? Buffalo currently leads the NFL
in time of possession at thirty four minutes and ten
seconds of possession time per game.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
In three of their.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
Five game play they've had one more possession than their opponents,
and the other two they have been even in total
possessions Dolphins Patriots, so they've never been out possessed in
a game yet this season. But only eleven of their
fifty three possessions have used five minutes or more of
game clock. That's a little less than twenty one percent
(07:21):
of their possessions, which would indicate they're not really making
a concerted effort to lengthen possessions and hold on to
the ball.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
But should they.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
Not in the first half of games. No, you gotta
come out in the first half because you know, you
never know how any game is gonna unfold, and you
said it alterally, you kind of wait to see how
the game unfolds. You need to come out and push
the gas and score as many points as you can,
as as often as you can, and get then in
the second half, if that other team has kept up
with you, keep your foot on the gas and keep going.
(07:54):
But if they have missed on a couple of their possessions,
you're up by ten, by fourteen, by seventeen points, then yeah,
I mean you just linked shorten.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
The game like they did against the Jets in week.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
Exactly like they did against the Jets, like they have
done against the Dolphins later in the game. That's just
the way the game is played. So you need to
see the game unfold. I don't think it's accurate or
prudent to go into a game with a game plan
of we hope they don't score on us. You know,
we we hope that they you know, that we can
(08:27):
keep them off the board. Now, you don't go in
playing defense on offense. You go in trying to score, score,
score and if they and put the pressure on them
to keep up if they can. And we've seen it
over the years, a lot of teams just aren't built
for it. They just don't have the horses. They're not
They don't have a quarterback or weapons, or an offense
an offensive line like Buffalo does. And every so often
(08:50):
they'll do what Buffalo did against the New England Patriots.
They cough it up multiple times, mate, or they get
a they don't get a third down, they over you know,
or they know they have to settle for a field goal.
When you're scoring touchdowns. They just can't keep up. So
when you get a team that if your offense is
putting pressure on that team with possessions, they just run
(09:11):
out and then late in the game. We've seen it
dozens of times with this Bills team, and now it
works really well with James Cook. They hand it off
and they can grind out some first downs and that's
what put games away.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Bill's opponents have scored on forty two percent of their
possessions through five games. That puts the Bill's defense twentieth
in that category. Twenty six percent of their opponent drives
result in a touchdown that ranks twenty first. Buffalo's defense
forces a three and out thirty four percent of the time.
That ranks fifteenth, and they are nineteenth after five games
(09:47):
played in third down defense. So when it comes to
giving up points, the Bill's defense is lower third of
the league, and when it comes to getting off the field,
Buffalo's defense is at or.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Near the middle of the league.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
Can they reduce the score as the season wears on,
that's the fifty million dollar question. If they can, well,
you got nothing to worry about, but you don't know
who's coming back into the lineup. And granted, the coaching
staff likely knows a lot more about this than we do.
But if you're not getting horses back aside from you know,
(10:19):
Ogunjobi and Hoyt. Notwithstanding, like if Hairston's going to take
longer to get back in the lineup and get up
to speed and get on the field at a position
where you're currently very thin. With Dorian Strong also on ir,
it may prompt you to think about either making an acquisition.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
But I think if the Bills offense.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Simply gets back to scoring points and not turning the
ball over and they're out possessing teams each and every week,
as the first five games have indicated, you probably don't
have to do anything extra on offense to help the defense.
Just keep on scoring and if you score thirty plus
you should be okay, and it has eighty percent your game.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
And it does have Bills fans clutching their pearls a
little bit because this defense, while the numbers are what
middle there, the fifteenth and nineteenth and third down, fifteenth
in possession, the forcing three and outs nineteenth and third
down defense, it looks worse than that because the Bills
get turnovers, so the team's moving, moving, moving, moving, so
(11:21):
it looks like you have no defense. Then they cough
it up and you tend to forget about the fact
that they just had a drive that they were still moving.
He kind of it kind of makes it seem like
the defense is worse than it is because they get
finger quotes lucky breaks with turnovers. So Bills fans really
have probably a worse opinion about the defense than even
(11:42):
the numbers show. And so that's why it's you ask
your question yourself, like, how what do we need to
do to stop that?
Speaker 1 (11:50):
Yes, And here's the other thing to think about. The
Bills don't face an offense that's better than twentieth in
points per game until they play Tampa Bay at home
on November sixteenth. Now be misleading too, because, as we know,
bad matchups can lead to more big plays and extended
drives and ultimately points for opponents. See Stefan Diggs this
week against Atlanta is a prime example. There are bad
(12:13):
matchups across the board for Buffalo's defense b Jean Robinson
against Buffalo's run defense, not to mention that he leads
the Falcons in receiving. Drake London, a six to four
slot receiver, against Taron Johnson, Kyle Pitts, a six to
six tight end who's finally producing in a week where
you don't have Milano and Darnell Mooney a burner on
the outside if he returns from a hamstring injury off
(12:34):
the buy with the state of Buffalo's defense health wise,
do they have the horses to run with all those
skill players.
Speaker 3 (12:41):
Well, here's yes. It's gonna be a tough matchup, no question.
They're gonna make some plays on our defense, no question
most teams do. The thing that has kept Atlanta from
doing that is exactly what Bills fans saw from the
Bills against New England. They did do it to themse elves.
(13:02):
It's not as efficient an offense as the Bills put
on the field. If and I know it's kind of
one of these esoteric terms we say, well they're efficient. Well,
that means the Bill's offense they stay on the field
when they want to, They get first downs, they score
points on a big part, a big percentage of their drives.
They don't usually last week when I was taking they
(13:23):
don't turn it over, Josh, is very difficult to sack.
All of those things we have talked about in the
weeks leading up to this makes the Bills offense really
hard to defend. They're hard to get off the field.
They're hard to keep out of the end zone or
out of the field goal range. And most offenses are
not like that. Bill's offense gives you this sense that, well,
(13:46):
if our guys are doing everybody else is doing. No,
they're not. Atlanta's got to take a step forward offensively
in their efficiency, not in the fact that they have
great players that They've got to find a way to
do it. Every single drive, every single possession, get first downs,
possess the ball, get into field goal range, threaten for
a touchdown, and if you don't get it, take the
(14:08):
field goal. A lot of teams can't do that, and
Atlanta has not shown the ability to do that at
a high rate like the Bills.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Have on a consistent basis.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
For that's the difference. Certainly, they got they look great
getting off the bus.
Speaker 2 (14:20):
They got to shut out against Carolina.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
Man, they they shoot themselves in the foot, I mean
they can't. They don't know how to clean their own weapon,
you know. I mean they're they're struggling. Uh that's now.
If they do, certainly you're gonna get a game like
they can beat Washington and they can beat Tampa Bay.
They can shoot, they can show up, but they're a
little bit of a roller coaster now, and you can
point to their youth, a little bit of that, and
(14:44):
maybe some continuity, new head coach, quarterback, some of that.
Some of that's going on over there. But man, oh man,
if they it's one of those things Atlanta fans are saying, Man,
if they could just click a little better, and Bills
fans can relate to that, probably some in the early
days of Josh Allen.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
Finally, on this topic, can special teams do more to
assist the defense with longer fields to defend? Granted, there's
only so much you can control. Their punk coverage has
been good at ranks eighth. Kick coverage ranked sixteenth in
the league or seventeenth in the league, but the hidden
yards seem to have favored the opposition the last couple
of weeks in two. In Week three, two of their
(15:20):
nine possessions inside their twenty yard line their opponent just
one and a four yard difference in average drive start.
In Week four, three of their eleven possessions inside their
own fifteen yard line their opponent with just one and
a twelve yard difference in average drive start.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
Week five, four of.
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Their ten possessions inside their own twenty their opponent with
just one and an eleven yard difference in average drive start.
I don't have to tell Steve that those yards add
up and put more of a burden on your offense.
But special teams has to provide more as well, do
they not?
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Absolutely? Now it is not just certainly special teams dictate
about ninety to ninety five percent of your field position,
but your offense and their productivity also has a hand
in that. Certainly, if you can get an offensive drive
that has the the tipping point is like seven plays,
it's a first down and then another first down and
(16:18):
then one play into it, or you know, punning it
away on the seventh play.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
That can help you flip the field.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
That helps you flip the field, because a forty yard
net is a forty yard net if you're kicking it
from your ten, it's only out to the fifty, so
that your offense is a part of that equation. So, yes,
you're right, And you look back all the possessions that
New England had ten eleven yards per possession, it's over
they had three, they had eleven percent. It's one hundred
(16:46):
and thirty yards one hundred yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:49):
Yeah, those are those are the hidden yards.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
That one hundred and twenty yards of hidden field position
that is in your kicking game, you've got to fight
against drive start. You've got to fight against that's eleven
yards difference on your drive start. You had eleven possessions
one hundred and twenty one yards, right, something like that.
It's a lot of yards that you got to open
over one hundred yeah. Yeah, But a lot of that
(17:14):
is a function and it is complementary football. And there's
I don't think the Bills special teams had a bad
game at all last week against the Patriots, but they
kicked out of their own end.
Speaker 1 (17:27):
It was an accumulation of a lot of little things
that at the end of the game looks like a
big thing.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
That's right, and you realize that it's just a drag
on your productivity, both on offense and defense.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
We spin it forward now to the Numbers game where
Steve will be quizzed on possession figures for the Bills
and their opponents.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Boy does that sound sexy.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
Here we go question number one this season, Steve, do
you believe the Bills or their opponents have more scoring
drives of nine plays or more.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
Take their opponents.
Speaker 2 (18:02):
It's actually the Bills step.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
They have sixteen drives of nine plays or more. Their
opponents aren't far behind, they have ten. Because I think
it's how many sixteen drives off nine plays or more?
I would opponents have ten, which you know, I think
again back to the perspective and the perception, it's a
function of, oh, how much the defense has been on
the field and allowed points.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
I think people generally, and yourself included, feel like it's.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
More this is a it's also a nod to how
efficient their offense has been. I mean they, wow, that's yeah,
long sustained drive, long sustained drives kind they And it's
also certainly helped the defense. It's also a function of
keeping the Bills off of the big play wagon. Yes,
teams really have made a concerted effort to put a
(18:50):
lid on Josh's arm, and they've been done a.
Speaker 2 (18:52):
Really good job of it. Question number two.
Speaker 1 (18:55):
Since twenty ten, Buffalo's current time of possession average of
thirty four minutes and ten seconds per game is the
highest single season total over that span. Granted it's just
been five games, not a whole season. What time do
you believe since twenty ten is the next highest possession
time in a single season. Like, I'll give you a
(19:15):
fifteen second average, but give me like a thirty four
to ten is the high water mark since twenty ten?
Speaker 2 (19:22):
What do you think would be the next highest possession
and that's for a whole season?
Speaker 3 (19:25):
Thirty one to thirty.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Oh, you're right on it, and I'll give it to
you because you're thirty one forty six in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
Good job, Seve. That's a hard number to get with
a dart.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
Oh, it is a dark, but it's not really a
dark because I look around every once in a while
you look at that. Yeah, you know, so I'm thinking, Okay,
it's usually pretty close.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
So you were on it. Question number three, let's go yes.
Speaker 1 (19:48):
In only four other seasons since twenty ten have the
Bills managed thirty one minutes of possession time or more,
not counting this season. Three of them took place in
the Josh Allen twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, and twenty
twenty three. Which year since twenty ten do you think
the other time happened? So three happened during the Josh
(20:12):
Allen era since twenty ten. When do you think the
other season was when they had at least thirty one
minutes of possession time on offense?
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Twenty twelve or twenty thirteen, incorrect, twenty fifteen.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
It was twenty fifteen, Steve Well done.
Speaker 3 (20:36):
I was surprised that it was one of the recks,
Ryan Well.
Speaker 1 (20:40):
The reason it was was in twenty fifteen the Bills
led the league in rushing with Lashawn McCoy, and they
had thirty one minutes in eighteen seconds of possession time.
Question number four, Where do you think the Bills rank
right now in points per possession?
Speaker 3 (21:03):
Who? I'll oh? I'll say one. They are not first,
gotta be their top three.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
They are top three.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
I'll say two.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
They are tied per second at two point eight nine
points per drive. They're tied with Detroit only better than them.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
The team in the top spot.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
You're Indianapolis Colt Steve three point three nine points per drive.
They are humming right now.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
Good for them.
Speaker 2 (21:36):
You're not ready to be believer in that.
Speaker 3 (21:38):
I'm not a believer. Don't I'm not a believer.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
Why not too soon?
Speaker 3 (21:43):
Daniel Jones? Okay, he said, when they get he can't
carry a.
Speaker 1 (21:50):
Team Okay, I don't think he doesn't have to though
they have Jonathan Taylor, I know, but sooner or later,
you know, you think he's going to turn into Sam
Darnold the playoffs, right, that's your belief.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
If they get there, they're playing like a playoff team.
No question. Defense is good enough, their running game is outstanding.
You know, they got some guys, yeah, no question. But
they're gonna need a team. They're gonna meet a team
that can match them, and they're gonna need somebody to
step up, and it ain't gonna be their quarterback.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (22:22):
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Speaker 2 (22:37):
We now ask our one burning question.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
If you could add a reliable, productive starter at any
one position right now for the Bills, where would you
do it?
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Corner? Yeah, they're just too ravaged right now by injury.
Got Max Harriston's out, Dorian Strong's out, They're on, I
are there on, I are You've got Trey and Christian
Benford and JaMarcus Ingram, Yeah, and that you know that's
thin behind them. You'd probably probably plug in Hancock, right, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
I mean you have Codrington, but he can't play outside, right.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
So yeah, that would probably be the one.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
Yeah, I mean it is precariously thin there.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
Yeah, they can't lose another body, So.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
The easy answer is corner.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
I think if I had to pick any other position,
maybe an extra linebacker because you're Roryan Williams is still
nicked up. Miloniald's going to be out week to week, Like,
you could really use an extra guy there. I mean,
you have people on the practice squad you can call
up if necessary. You know, Charlow is a nice young player,
(23:46):
but man is he inexperienced? Yeah, it's I mean, you
got Shaq Thompson, but boy, it's thin there. So this
just speaks to how shorthanded you feel on defense with
the Bills right now. Our closing figure addresses what has
been a trouble spot in the Bills schedule for years.
(24:08):
In each of the last three seasons, Buffalo has lost
their Week five game. Last Sunday was the third straight
Week five game the Bills have lost. The good news
is Buffalo has won each of their last three Week
six games. Only once in the last six years have
the Bills won both their Week five and Week.
Speaker 2 (24:29):
Six games back to back.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
It's a scheduling anomaly that no one can explain. It
happened back in the twenty twenty two season when they
beat Pittsburgh and Kansas City back to back.
Speaker 2 (24:40):
That'll do it for this edition.
Speaker 1 (24:42):
Please subscribe on whatever podcast platform you use, or watch
and listen to us on the Bills YouTube channel, because
when you need to know about the Bills, you need
to check Bills by the Numbers for Steve Tasker on
Chris Brown.
Speaker 2 (24:53):
Thanks for watching. We'll catch you next time.
Speaker 3 (24:55):
Everybody st
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