October 23, 2025 • 21 mins
On this week's episode of Bills by the Numbers presented by FanDuel, Chris Brown and Steve Tasker take a deep dive into the Bills offense to find out how concerning recent struggles can be for the future. They discuss the areas that can help the offense the most, including limiting turnovers and if they can become more highly productive in the pass game. Steve is quizzed on Bills bye week trivia in The Numbers Game. Finally, the two give their answer to this week's One Burning Question, can Josh Allen get back to his success against the blitz?
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hey, you know where you are. It's Bills by the Numbers,
where we let the stats tell you where the bills
are at. We're presented by fan We will make every
moment more coming your way. Next, Buffalo's offense isn't as
troubled as you might think, and we'll explain why. What
could help make the offense look like a lighter lift
going forward. Steve will be quizzed on the bills post
buy and we'll have our one burning question.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Hey, no more buys. We got nothing but hellos.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Glad to have you along for Bills by the Numbers.
He's Bills Wall of Famer. Steve'sasher on Bills play by
playman Chris Brown, and we come out of the blocks
with a look at Buffalo's offense, which many fans are
wringing their hands over the past few weeks, with point
production dropping the past two games and the offense struggling
to protect, extend drives and take care of the ball.
(01:00):
Bill's Mafia is gripping this despite the fact that Buffalo
has had a set of back to back losses in
each of their last six seasons and then successfully climbed
out of that hole to make the post season. So,
first up, Steve, how would you quantify this most recent
set of back to back losses in terms of impact
(01:23):
on Buffalo's twenty twenty five campaign.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
Well, there's still a very good football team, and good
football teams when they get beat the way they have
the last couple of weeks, it's large in large measure
because they're not playing the way they should play. They're
getting a lot of penalties, then they're turning the football
over and that's gonna make you look sloppy. That's where
we're sitting with the Bills. The Patriots game is a
(01:47):
classic example of what happened. They lost by three on
a last minute field goal in a game where they
turn it over three times and got ten penalties, and
they look sloppy, and they turned it in their own end.
They turned it over in the other team's end in
critical moments and paid the price for it in a
three point loss. That's the kind of game they lose.
(02:09):
The Atlanta game was a little different. On the road.
Atlanta was a tough physical matchup for Buffalo, and Buffalo
while their defense adjusted for the second half and only
allowed three more points by the Atlanta Falcons. That's all
it took. You know, their offense could not get on track,
and that's probably as disconcerting as anything. Josh Allen, the
(02:31):
guy who rarely gets sacked as a quarterback, was under
pressure that night and got sacked a number of times,
and so that kind of makes you seem like something
was out of court, out of character for the team.
But I still think they're the exact same team they
have been. When they get beat, more often than not,
(02:51):
they helped the other team, and that's the only way
it happens.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Yeah, And then I will just add to that and
say Sean McDermot and his co coaching staff when they
experience these setbacks, are among the best staffs in the
league at course correcting the team and getting them back
on the rails to the kind of football we've become
accustomed to seeing them play. And I'm not expecting anything
(03:14):
different this coming week. Out of the buy in an
effort to put Bills fans more at ease, as we
usually do here on Bills by the Numbers is use
the stats to tell you where the Bills are at.
And the offense is in as troubled as you might think,
even with their last two outings being down in terms
of production and points, Buffalo is still second in the
(03:37):
league in success rate on offense. The Bills may lack
big plays in the passing game, but they are sixth
in the league in yards after catch per reception with
an average of almost eight yards seven point nine. So
they're getting yards, it's just after the catch instead of
air yards on the throw. How confident are you that
(03:59):
the Bills off we'll rediscover their footing and be highly
productive again going forward.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
I'm extremely confident they're gonna have some They're gonna score,
you know, between twenty five and thirty points or twenty
five and thirty five points every game they go out there,
unless unless they put it on the ground and drop
the ball. That's just the way they are. Teams are
gonna have to continue to keep up with the Bills
on the scoreboard with their offense, and that's part of
(04:26):
the reason the Bills are who they are. They're this
team that's difficult to beat and everybody expects to be
there at the end. They're going to be there again,
and unless they turn it over, they're going to do
some things well that force other teams to react. They've
got to other teams have to score points, more points
than you would think to win these games. And if
(04:50):
they don't, they don't, they're not gonna win. They've got
to keep up offensively, and the Bills defense, with the
guys coming back off the off the off the injury
list and the suspension list should get a little bit
better and a little bit more at least a little deeper.
And if that's the case and they can get back
(05:10):
to getting some turnovers once in a while, I'm not
even saying four turnovers a game or three turnovers a game.
If they can get a couple, that's going to go
a long way towards this team being who we think they.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
Are coming out of the buy. The last eight years,
the Bills have averaged two turnovers in their first game
off the buy. Takeaway as we're talking about, and look,
I think they will be able to get back to
what they do best, and usually coming off of buy
they add a few wrinkles in as well, and I
think they're going to rediscover what their identity is on
(05:41):
offense and it'll be full steam ahead. Still, you might
argue you want to have more explosive plays from time
to time so you don't have to go the long
way all the time on offense and have to be
highly efficient every single time you possess the ball. I
realize some fans believe they're not getting enough out of theirs,
but there's six receiving touchdowns, ranked sixth in the league,
(06:04):
and they've played one fewer game than about half the
league at this point in time. Now that they've had thereby,
if there's anything they need, it's fewer turnovers to Steve's points.
Six turnovers in their last three games, including five in
their two losses the last two weeks. How fixable is
that knowing opponents watching recent tape might be all the
(06:24):
more motivated to try to dislodge the ball from Buffalo's
ball carriers.
Speaker 3 (06:29):
It's very fixable because they're the only team since nineteen
fifty you've gone twelve games without turning it over. So
they know how to do it. But they've got to
reiterate that in their skill people. The Keon Coleman drop
inside the ten yard line last week was or against
the Patriots was critical. The turnover they got they gave
(06:51):
up inside the red zone of the Patriots was critical
in that game. You don't have to go very far
towards yet before we have tangible proof that that is
the stat you've got to watch for this club. So
certainly it's fixable. Certainly it's fixable because it's all on you,
(07:12):
and I'm sure that message has been driven home. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
I mean, this team had an extra practice coming off
the buy on Monday in Pads. It was an hour
of nothing but fundamentals, ball security, tackling, pass protection, the
whole nine was run through over the course of an hour.
And I do believe it's fixable because, as you said, Steve,
(07:37):
have passed history. This team had eight giveaways last year.
Now that is an extraordinarily low number. Are they going
to be able to match that this year? Probably not,
But I think they're still going to be among the
best teams in the league in terms of protecting the
football by the time we get to week eighteen. Defensively,
there is a form of the Cavalry on the way
(08:00):
briefly in the form of Michael Hoyt and Larry Ogunjobi,
two veteran players who returned to the team off six
games suspensions. Ogunjobi likely to step right into the lineup
in place of an injured Daikwon Jones. Who is weak
to week with a calf injury. Hoyt meanwhile expected to
be a movable chess piece along the defensive front. And
then there's Max Harriston, the first round pick who began
(08:20):
practicing in Week eight. How much of a shot in
the arm can these players provide to a defense that
is sorely needed, sorely in need of reinforcements.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Yeah, I think he gives him an uptick in every
aspect of the defensive front. Those two guys Ogunjoby's a
good run stop stuffer. Hoyt is a good pass rusher
and a good run stopper. They're true pros. They're gonna
everything's gonna get taken up a tick, both their pass
rush and their run stuff. Max Harriston, that's a little
(08:55):
bit more questionable. You don't know. Certainly he's athletic enough
to play at the NFL level. He is the one
guy out there who on their in their defensive backfield
who can outrun most anybody. How fast he comes out
and can get acclimated is gonna be the real question,
is it? Max Harriston. His problems are from the neck
(09:19):
up right now, not the not the knee down. If
you get hit my drift. It's not his injury, it's
getting his head on the right spot and earning the
trust of coaches to put him out there in a
complicated defensive system and having him hold up physically. I
think he'll be better than he will be mentally at times,
and he could give them a shot in the arm
(09:40):
big time. But they're gonna need it at both ends.
Let's face that they have been struggling with the injuries
and guys in and out of the lineup, and just
the lack of production defensively. Third down defense, you would
expect to be better if Max Harriston's on the field
and Mike Hoyt is on the field, getting to third down,
(10:00):
third down and long would be more in Larry Ogan
Jobi's line of help. So if all of those guys
get the uptick in those kind of areas, yeah, the
defense is gonna get a few more stops, maybe two
or three more stops a game, and that makes all
the difference in the world.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Yeah, I think up front, it's about shoring up the
run fits better. You've got an eight to nine year
veteran doing that now, next to Ed Oliver or next
to whoever the fourth defensive tackle is going to be,
because right now you only have three healthy ones, you
probably have to have a practice squad call up entering
the game against the Panthers. He's he's a veteran presence
(10:39):
in there that knows how to get the job done
and has a proven track record of doing it. And
if you can help on your snaps to get the
Carolina offense, and the offense is to come into long
down and distance situations, that benefits your pass rush. And
if you have long down and distance that benefits the
guys on the back end. Routes take longer to come complete.
(11:00):
You got guys up front that have a half second
more to get home. And maybe this team that right
now is second in pressure rate in the league, can
actually get the quarterback on the ground a few more
times per game. Looking at the last thing on the list,
the benefit of the bye week, the Bills coaching staff
(11:20):
has had the opportunity to tweak some things and perhaps
set up some tendency breaker type plays. The question is
do they leave some of those in the bag for
the game against Kansas City in Week nine or is
getting back on track in Week A too important to
not utilize whatever new looks you've got at your disposal
to get a win. Before even focusing on the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (11:40):
I think the mentality is, you win this game by
hook or crook, worry about next week. Next it comes,
because this week, I mean, you don't know what's going
to happen in this game. I mean, if who's going
to come out healthy, who's going to come out hurt.
You don't know what you're gonna have to work with
next week, and so the plays that you call maybe
off the table anyway because of the players that get
(12:02):
win this game this week. That's always the mentality. Don't
worry about Let Kansas City take care of themselves because
you know, at this point, you know, Pat Mahomes tweaks
an ankle, he's not even playing, you know, then, or
Josh gets a hang out, he's not playing for the Bills,
or you know, you know, those kind of things happen.
Worthy and Rashid Rice both missed the next game, so
(12:24):
it's a whole different matchup. So win this game, throw
all your eggs into this basket, and then next week,
whatever eggs are left, you throw into the next one.
And that's that's the mentality. You can't get caught up
in looking past the Carolina Panthers for the Kansas City Chiefs.
You've got to beat the Panthers and stack those wins.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
Yeah, I would say priority number one is getting everything
back on the rails to winning football, and that starts
with Carolina, who, by the way, is no pushover team.
They play a very physical brand of football. They're good
at running the football, third in the league. So you
got enough problem this week to deal with. And if
you have some things that you think are going to
(13:04):
enhance your chances of winning, by all means, use them
this week, get the win, get to five and two,
and then worry about next week next week. But not
agree more.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
They're the best team the Bills have faced rent win
loss record yet this year. They're four and three. Right,
They're the best team the Bills have faced this year,
the Carolina Panthers. No matter what you thought about them,
or have you know what your their prospects are, their
expectations were, They've got more wins under their belt than
any team the Bills have played so far this year.
They're four and three, and that's yeah. They're they're getting
(13:37):
it done, no question of being done.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
They're doing a good job, even though their strength of
victory is only slightly better than the Bill's strength of victory,
which is the worst in the league. Right they have
not beat juggernaut teams. I mean, on their three game
winning streak, they've beaten Miami Dallas.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
And the Jets, and the Jets and they beat They
did crush the Falcons five weeks ago, but they lost
to the Patriots, the Cardinals, and the Jaguars. So take
that what you will. They're a team that's learning how
to win, and they're getting it done more often than
they're not.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
We move on to the numbers game, where Steve is
going to be tested on Bills bye week trivia.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
Here we go.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Question number one, When was the last time the Bills
had a bye week earlier than Week seven? That is,
obviously when they had their bye this year. When's the
last time they had a bye week earlier than.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
That early twenty twenties? I think twenty one to twenty two.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
You're close, but not correct. Twenty twenty incorrect, twenty nineteen,
twenty nineteen. They had a bye in week six, just
the week before. Question number two, Since twenty seven, what
(15:01):
numbered week has been the most frequent bye week for
the Bills. So in the Sean McDermott era, what do
you believe to be the most frequent bye week? Number?
Speaker 3 (15:12):
Week eleven.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
That's a good guest, Steve, but again incorrect. Nine, not nine, ten,
No twelve, it's actually no thirteen. No, it's not no, no, no, no, no,
it's week seven. It actually is week seven. It's happened
three times since twenty seventeen.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
I had no shot.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
No, you were going the wrong direction and fast. Kind
of reminds me of that yodler you know in The
Price is Right. Yeah, going the wrong way and he's
still marching up to the cliffhanger is the name of
the game?
Speaker 3 (15:48):
Question number three.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
The Bills, as you know, are eight and oh coming
off the bye under Sean McDermott. How many of those
post buy victories have been on the road?
Speaker 3 (16:06):
Four? It is less. Two, it is less one.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
Only one of those post by victories under Sean McDermott
has been on the road. It was in week thirteen
of the twenty twenty three season at Kansas City.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
Wow, all right, Steve.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
That's kind of a weird stat there.
Speaker 1 (16:33):
Well, it's their little eye opening too.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Yeah, they're at home after the bye a lot. Yeah, wow,
I didn't realize.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
Something to think about. As good as the record is.
Question four, what is the average margin of victory for
the Bills in their eight post buy victories under Sean McDermott.
Average margin of victory?
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Which is eight point five?
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Oh, you're close, you are.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
Out really nine, it's nine point eight, it's almost ten.
That's like average marks within a point and a half
of that's a that's a win.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
I'll give you a half point there. So so you
finished with a half point on your score A on
a somewhat forgettable numbers game for one Steve Tasker. Five
of Buffalo's eight post by wins under McDermott were by
ten points or more. Those were all at home, though
that should be noted the one post by victory under
Sean McDermott at Kansas City three point win twenty to
(17:34):
seventeen in twenty twenty three. Bill's fans get in on
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the Buffalo of Bills, we now ask our one burning question.
(17:58):
Josh Allen, who often victimized teams that blitz him, is
having trouble executing against the blitz this season. His QBR
under pressure has fallen to an anemic twelve point two,
which is twenty fifth in the NFL. He is eight
for twenty one for ninety yards with a touchdown and
three picks in his last two games facing the blitz.
(18:18):
How do we frame this new problem that has cropped up,
a blip on the radar or something more troubling than that.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
Well, it's always troubling because you don't drop off that
much unless something's happened. And whatever the difference is, I'm
sure they've got a handle on it. But you can
bet I know this to be a died in the
wool rule etched in stone in the NFL. Until you
prove you can beat it, they're gonna give it to you.
(18:48):
So you can bet the Caroline is gonna send pressure
on him, and they're gonna do some of the exact
same things and the same concepts and the same thought
process behind their pressure packages as the teams that have
been doing up at this point, Josh's gonna have to
find an answer for that, or they're gonna give it
a steady diet of it.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
I felt there was a disconnect, particularly in the Atlanta game,
where granted they had a lot of long down and
distant situations, you're inviting the blitz or pass pressure to
get to you in those situations, So a lot of
long down and distance not only on third down, but
second down as well in that Atlanta game specifically, and
I felt as though the protections pre snap were a
(19:31):
little off. Where Josh is such a smart quarterback, I
still don't think he gets enough credit for his football
IQ because he is so gifted physically. He usually has
those pass protections with Connor McGovern buttoned up from start
to finish in games, and if there is a free
rusher coming, he knows where it's coming from. Like we're
(19:53):
so accustomed to seeing him having it all blocked up
and taken care of, or a pass set up with
a hot to neutralize the blitz that what we saw
on Monday night in Atlanta was almost startling. It was
Jarring because of how good he has been over the years.
I think with the bye week and the extra time
to figure out what the issues were, I expected to
(20:15):
be one hundred percent corrected going forward. So for me,
it's a blip on the radar. Not to mention the
fact that even though Carolina might be blitzing a little
more than they usually do, they're last in the league
in pressure rate. For what it's worth, our closing figures
deal with Buffalo's run defense, which has been a persistent
problem since Week one. These figures are courtesy of NFL
(20:39):
league stats that are provided. Over nineteen percent of the
runs against the Bills have gone for more than ten yards.
That's the highest rate in the league. More than forty
eight percent of the total yardage allowed by the Bills
has been via rushing, that's the highest percentage in the league.
And almost forty three percent of the yards gained by
(21:01):
the Carolina Panthers has been by rushing. That is the
third highest percentage in the NFL. Things to think about
going into the Week eight matchup off the buye That'll
do it for this episode. Make sure you subscribe on
whatever podcast platform you use, or on the Bills YouTube
channel where you can watch us as well, because when
you need to know about the bills, you need to
(21:22):
check bills by the numbers. Received Tasker, I'm Chris Brown.
Thanks for listening. We'll catch you next time.
Speaker 3 (21:27):
Everybody,
Hey, you know where you are. It's Bills by the Numbers,
where we let the stats tell you where the bills
are at. We're presented by fan We will make every
moment more coming your way. Next, Buffalo's offense isn't as
troubled as you might think, and we'll explain why. What
could help make the offense look like a lighter lift
going forward. Steve will be quizzed on the bills post
buy and we'll have our one burning question.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Hey, no more buys. We got nothing but hellos.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Glad to have you along for Bills by the Numbers.
He's Bills Wall of Famer. Steve'sasher on Bills play by
playman Chris Brown, and we come out of the blocks
with a look at Buffalo's offense, which many fans are
wringing their hands over the past few weeks, with point
production dropping the past two games and the offense struggling
to protect, extend drives and take care of the ball.
(01:00):
Bill's Mafia is gripping this despite the fact that Buffalo
has had a set of back to back losses in
each of their last six seasons and then successfully climbed
out of that hole to make the post season. So,
first up, Steve, how would you quantify this most recent
set of back to back losses in terms of impact
(01:23):
on Buffalo's twenty twenty five campaign.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
Well, there's still a very good football team, and good
football teams when they get beat the way they have
the last couple of weeks, it's large in large measure
because they're not playing the way they should play. They're
getting a lot of penalties, then they're turning the football
over and that's gonna make you look sloppy. That's where
we're sitting with the Bills. The Patriots game is a
(01:47):
classic example of what happened. They lost by three on
a last minute field goal in a game where they
turn it over three times and got ten penalties, and
they look sloppy, and they turned it in their own end.
They turned it over in the other team's end in
critical moments and paid the price for it in a
three point loss. That's the kind of game they lose.
(02:09):
The Atlanta game was a little different. On the road.
Atlanta was a tough physical matchup for Buffalo, and Buffalo
while their defense adjusted for the second half and only
allowed three more points by the Atlanta Falcons. That's all
it took. You know, their offense could not get on track,
and that's probably as disconcerting as anything. Josh Allen, the
(02:31):
guy who rarely gets sacked as a quarterback, was under
pressure that night and got sacked a number of times,
and so that kind of makes you seem like something
was out of court, out of character for the team.
But I still think they're the exact same team they
have been. When they get beat, more often than not,
(02:51):
they helped the other team, and that's the only way
it happens.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Yeah, And then I will just add to that and
say Sean McDermot and his co coaching staff when they
experience these setbacks, are among the best staffs in the
league at course correcting the team and getting them back
on the rails to the kind of football we've become
accustomed to seeing them play. And I'm not expecting anything
(03:14):
different this coming week. Out of the buy in an
effort to put Bills fans more at ease, as we
usually do here on Bills by the Numbers is use
the stats to tell you where the Bills are at.
And the offense is in as troubled as you might think,
even with their last two outings being down in terms
of production and points, Buffalo is still second in the
(03:37):
league in success rate on offense. The Bills may lack
big plays in the passing game, but they are sixth
in the league in yards after catch per reception with
an average of almost eight yards seven point nine. So
they're getting yards, it's just after the catch instead of
air yards on the throw. How confident are you that
(03:59):
the Bills off we'll rediscover their footing and be highly
productive again going forward.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
I'm extremely confident they're gonna have some They're gonna score,
you know, between twenty five and thirty points or twenty
five and thirty five points every game they go out there,
unless unless they put it on the ground and drop
the ball. That's just the way they are. Teams are
gonna have to continue to keep up with the Bills
on the scoreboard with their offense, and that's part of
(04:26):
the reason the Bills are who they are. They're this
team that's difficult to beat and everybody expects to be
there at the end. They're going to be there again,
and unless they turn it over, they're going to do
some things well that force other teams to react. They've
got to other teams have to score points, more points
than you would think to win these games. And if
(04:50):
they don't, they don't, they're not gonna win. They've got
to keep up offensively, and the Bills defense, with the
guys coming back off the off the off the injury
list and the suspension list should get a little bit
better and a little bit more at least a little deeper.
And if that's the case and they can get back
(05:10):
to getting some turnovers once in a while, I'm not
even saying four turnovers a game or three turnovers a game.
If they can get a couple, that's going to go
a long way towards this team being who we think they.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
Are coming out of the buy. The last eight years,
the Bills have averaged two turnovers in their first game
off the buy. Takeaway as we're talking about, and look,
I think they will be able to get back to
what they do best, and usually coming off of buy
they add a few wrinkles in as well, and I
think they're going to rediscover what their identity is on
(05:41):
offense and it'll be full steam ahead. Still, you might
argue you want to have more explosive plays from time
to time so you don't have to go the long
way all the time on offense and have to be
highly efficient every single time you possess the ball. I
realize some fans believe they're not getting enough out of theirs,
but there's six receiving touchdowns, ranked sixth in the league,
(06:04):
and they've played one fewer game than about half the
league at this point in time. Now that they've had thereby,
if there's anything they need, it's fewer turnovers to Steve's points.
Six turnovers in their last three games, including five in
their two losses the last two weeks. How fixable is
that knowing opponents watching recent tape might be all the
(06:24):
more motivated to try to dislodge the ball from Buffalo's
ball carriers.
Speaker 3 (06:29):
It's very fixable because they're the only team since nineteen
fifty you've gone twelve games without turning it over. So
they know how to do it. But they've got to
reiterate that in their skill people. The Keon Coleman drop
inside the ten yard line last week was or against
the Patriots was critical. The turnover they got they gave
(06:51):
up inside the red zone of the Patriots was critical
in that game. You don't have to go very far
towards yet before we have tangible proof that that is
the stat you've got to watch for this club. So
certainly it's fixable. Certainly it's fixable because it's all on you,
(07:12):
and I'm sure that message has been driven home. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
I mean, this team had an extra practice coming off
the buy on Monday in Pads. It was an hour
of nothing but fundamentals, ball security, tackling, pass protection, the
whole nine was run through over the course of an hour.
And I do believe it's fixable because, as you said, Steve,
(07:37):
have passed history. This team had eight giveaways last year.
Now that is an extraordinarily low number. Are they going
to be able to match that this year? Probably not,
But I think they're still going to be among the
best teams in the league in terms of protecting the
football by the time we get to week eighteen. Defensively,
there is a form of the Cavalry on the way
(08:00):
briefly in the form of Michael Hoyt and Larry Ogunjobi,
two veteran players who returned to the team off six
games suspensions. Ogunjobi likely to step right into the lineup
in place of an injured Daikwon Jones. Who is weak
to week with a calf injury. Hoyt meanwhile expected to
be a movable chess piece along the defensive front. And
then there's Max Harriston, the first round pick who began
(08:20):
practicing in Week eight. How much of a shot in
the arm can these players provide to a defense that
is sorely needed, sorely in need of reinforcements.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Yeah, I think he gives him an uptick in every
aspect of the defensive front. Those two guys Ogunjoby's a
good run stop stuffer. Hoyt is a good pass rusher
and a good run stopper. They're true pros. They're gonna
everything's gonna get taken up a tick, both their pass
rush and their run stuff. Max Harriston, that's a little
(08:55):
bit more questionable. You don't know. Certainly he's athletic enough
to play at the NFL level. He is the one
guy out there who on their in their defensive backfield
who can outrun most anybody. How fast he comes out
and can get acclimated is gonna be the real question,
is it? Max Harriston. His problems are from the neck
(09:19):
up right now, not the not the knee down. If
you get hit my drift. It's not his injury, it's
getting his head on the right spot and earning the
trust of coaches to put him out there in a
complicated defensive system and having him hold up physically. I
think he'll be better than he will be mentally at times,
and he could give them a shot in the arm
(09:40):
big time. But they're gonna need it at both ends.
Let's face that they have been struggling with the injuries
and guys in and out of the lineup, and just
the lack of production defensively. Third down defense, you would
expect to be better if Max Harriston's on the field
and Mike Hoyt is on the field, getting to third down,
(10:00):
third down and long would be more in Larry Ogan
Jobi's line of help. So if all of those guys
get the uptick in those kind of areas, yeah, the
defense is gonna get a few more stops, maybe two
or three more stops a game, and that makes all
the difference in the world.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Yeah, I think up front, it's about shoring up the
run fits better. You've got an eight to nine year
veteran doing that now, next to Ed Oliver or next
to whoever the fourth defensive tackle is going to be,
because right now you only have three healthy ones, you
probably have to have a practice squad call up entering
the game against the Panthers. He's he's a veteran presence
(10:39):
in there that knows how to get the job done
and has a proven track record of doing it. And
if you can help on your snaps to get the
Carolina offense, and the offense is to come into long
down and distance situations, that benefits your pass rush. And
if you have long down and distance that benefits the
guys on the back end. Routes take longer to come complete.
(11:00):
You got guys up front that have a half second
more to get home. And maybe this team that right
now is second in pressure rate in the league, can
actually get the quarterback on the ground a few more
times per game. Looking at the last thing on the list,
the benefit of the bye week, the Bills coaching staff
(11:20):
has had the opportunity to tweak some things and perhaps
set up some tendency breaker type plays. The question is
do they leave some of those in the bag for
the game against Kansas City in Week nine or is
getting back on track in Week A too important to
not utilize whatever new looks you've got at your disposal
to get a win. Before even focusing on the Chiefs.
Speaker 3 (11:40):
I think the mentality is, you win this game by
hook or crook, worry about next week. Next it comes,
because this week, I mean, you don't know what's going
to happen in this game. I mean, if who's going
to come out healthy, who's going to come out hurt.
You don't know what you're gonna have to work with
next week, and so the plays that you call maybe
off the table anyway because of the players that get
(12:02):
win this game this week. That's always the mentality. Don't
worry about Let Kansas City take care of themselves because
you know, at this point, you know, Pat Mahomes tweaks
an ankle, he's not even playing, you know, then, or
Josh gets a hang out, he's not playing for the Bills,
or you know, you know, those kind of things happen.
Worthy and Rashid Rice both missed the next game, so
(12:24):
it's a whole different matchup. So win this game, throw
all your eggs into this basket, and then next week,
whatever eggs are left, you throw into the next one.
And that's that's the mentality. You can't get caught up
in looking past the Carolina Panthers for the Kansas City Chiefs.
You've got to beat the Panthers and stack those wins.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
Yeah, I would say priority number one is getting everything
back on the rails to winning football, and that starts
with Carolina, who, by the way, is no pushover team.
They play a very physical brand of football. They're good
at running the football, third in the league. So you
got enough problem this week to deal with. And if
you have some things that you think are going to
(13:04):
enhance your chances of winning, by all means, use them
this week, get the win, get to five and two,
and then worry about next week next week. But not
agree more.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
They're the best team the Bills have faced rent win
loss record yet this year. They're four and three. Right,
They're the best team the Bills have faced this year,
the Carolina Panthers. No matter what you thought about them,
or have you know what your their prospects are, their
expectations were, They've got more wins under their belt than
any team the Bills have played so far this year.
They're four and three, and that's yeah. They're they're getting
(13:37):
it done, no question of being done.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
They're doing a good job, even though their strength of
victory is only slightly better than the Bill's strength of victory,
which is the worst in the league. Right they have
not beat juggernaut teams. I mean, on their three game
winning streak, they've beaten Miami Dallas.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
And the Jets, and the Jets and they beat They
did crush the Falcons five weeks ago, but they lost
to the Patriots, the Cardinals, and the Jaguars. So take
that what you will. They're a team that's learning how
to win, and they're getting it done more often than
they're not.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
We move on to the numbers game, where Steve is
going to be tested on Bills bye week trivia.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
Here we go.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Question number one, When was the last time the Bills
had a bye week earlier than Week seven? That is,
obviously when they had their bye this year. When's the
last time they had a bye week earlier than.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
That early twenty twenties? I think twenty one to twenty two.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
You're close, but not correct. Twenty twenty incorrect, twenty nineteen,
twenty nineteen. They had a bye in week six, just
the week before. Question number two, Since twenty seven, what
(15:01):
numbered week has been the most frequent bye week for
the Bills. So in the Sean McDermott era, what do
you believe to be the most frequent bye week? Number?
Speaker 3 (15:12):
Week eleven.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
That's a good guest, Steve, but again incorrect. Nine, not nine, ten,
No twelve, it's actually no thirteen. No, it's not no, no, no, no, no,
it's week seven. It actually is week seven. It's happened
three times since twenty seventeen.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
I had no shot.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
No, you were going the wrong direction and fast. Kind
of reminds me of that yodler you know in The
Price is Right. Yeah, going the wrong way and he's
still marching up to the cliffhanger is the name of
the game?
Speaker 3 (15:48):
Question number three.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
The Bills, as you know, are eight and oh coming
off the bye under Sean McDermott. How many of those
post buy victories have been on the road?
Speaker 3 (16:06):
Four? It is less. Two, it is less one.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
Only one of those post by victories under Sean McDermott
has been on the road. It was in week thirteen
of the twenty twenty three season at Kansas City.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
Wow, all right, Steve.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
That's kind of a weird stat there.
Speaker 1 (16:33):
Well, it's their little eye opening too.
Speaker 3 (16:34):
Yeah, they're at home after the bye a lot. Yeah, wow,
I didn't realize.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
Something to think about. As good as the record is.
Question four, what is the average margin of victory for
the Bills in their eight post buy victories under Sean McDermott.
Average margin of victory?
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Which is eight point five?
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Oh, you're close, you are.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
Out really nine, it's nine point eight, it's almost ten.
That's like average marks within a point and a half
of that's a that's a win.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
I'll give you a half point there. So so you
finished with a half point on your score A on
a somewhat forgettable numbers game for one Steve Tasker. Five
of Buffalo's eight post by wins under McDermott were by
ten points or more. Those were all at home, though
that should be noted the one post by victory under
Sean McDermott at Kansas City three point win twenty to
(17:34):
seventeen in twenty twenty three. Bill's fans get in on
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(17:58):
Josh Allen, who often victimized teams that blitz him, is
having trouble executing against the blitz this season. His QBR
under pressure has fallen to an anemic twelve point two,
which is twenty fifth in the NFL. He is eight
for twenty one for ninety yards with a touchdown and
three picks in his last two games facing the blitz.
(18:18):
How do we frame this new problem that has cropped up,
a blip on the radar or something more troubling than that.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
Well, it's always troubling because you don't drop off that
much unless something's happened. And whatever the difference is, I'm
sure they've got a handle on it. But you can
bet I know this to be a died in the
wool rule etched in stone in the NFL. Until you
prove you can beat it, they're gonna give it to you.
(18:48):
So you can bet the Caroline is gonna send pressure
on him, and they're gonna do some of the exact
same things and the same concepts and the same thought
process behind their pressure packages as the teams that have
been doing up at this point, Josh's gonna have to
find an answer for that, or they're gonna give it
a steady diet of it.
Speaker 1 (19:05):
I felt there was a disconnect, particularly in the Atlanta game,
where granted they had a lot of long down and
distant situations, you're inviting the blitz or pass pressure to
get to you in those situations, So a lot of
long down and distance not only on third down, but
second down as well in that Atlanta game specifically, and
I felt as though the protections pre snap were a
(19:31):
little off. Where Josh is such a smart quarterback, I
still don't think he gets enough credit for his football
IQ because he is so gifted physically. He usually has
those pass protections with Connor McGovern buttoned up from start
to finish in games, and if there is a free
rusher coming, he knows where it's coming from. Like we're
(19:53):
so accustomed to seeing him having it all blocked up
and taken care of, or a pass set up with
a hot to neutralize the blitz that what we saw
on Monday night in Atlanta was almost startling. It was
Jarring because of how good he has been over the years.
I think with the bye week and the extra time
to figure out what the issues were, I expected to
(20:15):
be one hundred percent corrected going forward. So for me,
it's a blip on the radar. Not to mention the
fact that even though Carolina might be blitzing a little
more than they usually do, they're last in the league
in pressure rate. For what it's worth, our closing figures
deal with Buffalo's run defense, which has been a persistent
problem since Week one. These figures are courtesy of NFL
(20:39):
league stats that are provided. Over nineteen percent of the
runs against the Bills have gone for more than ten yards.
That's the highest rate in the league. More than forty
eight percent of the total yardage allowed by the Bills
has been via rushing, that's the highest percentage in the league.
And almost forty three percent of the yards gained by
(21:01):
the Carolina Panthers has been by rushing. That is the
third highest percentage in the NFL. Things to think about
going into the Week eight matchup off the buye That'll
do it for this episode. Make sure you subscribe on
whatever podcast platform you use, or on the Bills YouTube
channel where you can watch us as well, because when
you need to know about the bills, you need to
(21:22):
check bills by the numbers. Received Tasker, I'm Chris Brown.
Thanks for listening. We'll catch you next time.
Speaker 3 (21:27):
Everybody,
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