June 5, 2025 • 31 mins
On this week's episode of Bills by the Numbers presented by FanDuel, Chris Brown and Steve Tasker discuss ESPN's recent Football Power Index rankings and share their thoughts on the Bills placement. They examine the pros and cons of the Bills ranking, specifically their offensive, defensive, and special teams designations. They talk about ESPN's win total projection, the strength of schedule, and the high percentage to win the division again. ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder joined the podcast to discuss how he determined his metrics above and the factors that go into it. Steve is quizzed on Bills win-loss success against their 2025 opponents in The Numbers Game. Finally, Chris and Steve give their answer to this week's One Burning Question - what is a realistic win total for Buffalo this season?
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's another edition of Bills by the Numbers, where we
let the stats tell you where the Bills are at.
We're brought to you by Fan Duel Make every moment
more coming up, It's projection time for twenty twenty five.
Where does ESPN's Football Power Index have the Bills. We'll
check in with ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder to find out.
Steve is quizzed on one lost record history versus Buffalo's
(00:22):
twenty twenty five opponents, and we'll have our one burning question.
Let's talk wins and losses, all right, Please to have
you here with us on Bills by the Numbers, Bills
(00:44):
Wall of Famer Steve Tasker, Bills play by playman Chris
Brown with you as always, And it's that time of
year with NFL rosters largely said, It's time for twenty
twenty five projections. First and foremost, ESPN's Football Power Index
has the Bills ranked fifth behind in order, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Baltimore,
(01:04):
and Detroit. For those who do not know, Football Power
Index measures a team's true strength based on a net
point scale and an expected point margin versus an average
opponent on a neutral field. Did you get all that
Buffalo's total FPI is a four point six and the
Eagles top this listed five point five. So we're talking
about what amounts to a marginal difference, and in essence
(01:27):
means none of them would be favored by more than
a point over another on a neutral field. The biggest
reason why the Bills were fifth is because of their defense,
which ranks twelfth in their Football Power Index, and their
special teams, which ranks twenty eighth. Now, those are defensive
units and special teams units that as of now obviously
(01:48):
are site unseen. So despite being tops in the league
in offense in their FPI rankings, their defense and special
teams pulls their collective FPI down. Now, I think both
Steve and I believe the defense in spe special teams
will demonstrate improvement for the Bills this fall. The question
is to what degree must that defense and special teams improve,
(02:09):
Steve to get Buffalo to the super Bolt.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Well, the old adage was back in the day, it's
always been special teams should win you a cup two games.
That was in a sixteen game schedule, win two games
and lose you zero.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
But you've said in recent years it's harder for special
teams to generate that kind of a margin.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Very much so, and a lot of times in most games,
you're very happy if you get a push, if you
don't give up a big play, don't get a big play,
don't turn it over. I mean, you don't have a misque, right,
don't have a misqueue. Don't give up a you know,
fifty yard return, even if it doesn't go for a touchdown.
Flip the field. You got to make them work for
every yard. Doesn't always happen that way, but I think
(02:49):
that's that's got to be the the low bar, the floor,
that's got to be the floor. Yeah, certainly. You know
Tyler back hitting a sixty one yard er to beat Miami,
you know that's a huge plus. Codrington's returns last year,
I thought, we're a huge plus. The Bills don't punt
(03:11):
that much. Punk coverage And I'll say this too as
a former guy who used to chase kicks. If you
don't do it very much, you're not very good at it.
So your offense is good, but your punk coverage unit
is gonna stink because they don't have any reps. You
don't get live reps. You can never I say never,
(03:31):
you almost never get any live special teams reps except
in games. Historically, the best kickoff return team in the
National Football League has been the ones with the worst
defensive units because they give up points, they get kicked
off to a lot, they get a lot of live reps.
(03:51):
That kind of still has That's still the case, except
that last year nobody returned kicks anyway. Right, this year
that might change. And with the Bills scoring a lot
of points, they're gonna get a lot of reps covering kicks.
They're gonna get better at it. They're gonna get better
at it.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
Yeah, And I'm encouraged with Chris Tabor on board as
special teams coordinator. This is a veteran special teams coach
who's done it at the NFL level. It's the first
time since twenty eighteen that the Bills have had a
special teams coordinator in that seat with prior NFL experience
in that role. I think what he's going to be
able to bring to the table in terms of scheming
(04:30):
will help give Buffalo some edges here and there through
the course of the season as well. And it's been
well documented what the Bills have done to add to
their defensive unit, both on the back end and the
front end, with a huge number of newcomers in plentiful supply. Now,
what's more interesting is when it comes to ESPN's win
(04:50):
total projections, Buffalo is atop the league with a win
projection of ten point six. Right behind them is Baltimore
and Kansas City at ten point four, Philadelphia at ten
point two.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
We'll get it.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Confirmed from Seth Walder when we catch up with him,
but we have to believe that Buffalo's strength of schedule
or lack thereof, likely came into play with this projection.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
It has to. You look at we make a big
deal out of the schedule because it's a lot of fun,
because so many of us plan travel and trips. But
that's just for us, right, It's for our personal it's
for our fun. Right when you start getting into it
about the competitive side of it, the Bill schedule, as
much as it could be being a first place schedule,
(05:33):
it's a cakewalk, as much as an NFL schedule can
be a cakewalk. You've only got six teams on the
schedule that were in the playoffs last year, not nine six.
That's hard to do with a first play schedule, particularly
also that they're playing the NFC South, you know, Tampa
(05:55):
Bay and New Orleans, Carolina and all that. That all
kind of rolls into it a week division out of conference.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
All of those teams were very middling teams, with the
exception of Tampa Bay, who won the division and made
the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
That's right, well, and there you have it. It's gonna
be the Bills should be able to make hay during
stretches of their season. They should put together some win streaks.
Now they always seem to with Josh and these guys.
And this offense is a load. I mean, it's a
it's a it's a wrecking crew. So they're going to
score points this year again, So that alone will win
(06:33):
them games because other teams offenses can't be that efficient.
They're just not ready for it. So the schedule really
is tilted in Buffalo's favor when you look at other
teams in that like the top this group of elite teams,
any of the Baltimore's and Detroit's and the you know,
Kansas City's of the world. Yeah, so Bills fans have
(06:56):
a reason to be very optimistic. They may there may
be a there's a scenario where the Bills, even in
week to week through the season, the Bills may never
be the underdog in a game.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
ESPN's analytics has the Bills atop the league with an
eighty one point one percent chance to make the playoffs
and a sixty five percent chance to win the division,
also highest in the league. Knowing the competitive nature of
other divisions like the AFC North, the AFC West, and
the NFC North, just to name a few, you can
understand why Buffalo is such a heavy favorite to win
(07:28):
their sixth straight division title. We're expecting, you know, a
team like New England to improve steve, but to threaten
them for the division title even with a soft fourth
place schedule seems unlikely.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
Well, so much has changed in New England. I mean,
we're blindfolded and throwing darts. You don't know what to expect.
Even if they double their win total last year, it's
not going to be good enough. That'd be give them
eight wins. They were four and thirteen. They could not
win games, and one of the wins was a Week
eighteen laydown by by All Riots. It should have been
(08:03):
three and fourteen. Their season, their roster needed a lot
of work, which they had the money and the gun,
and they spent it and tried to refurbish it with
a new head coach. They're on a honeymoon period. They
built this team the way Mike Vrabel wanted it, built
the quarterback, and they got a quarterback that people are
very high on. So you and I are very bullish
(08:27):
on the Patriots. I think they're going to get much
better as that season rolls along.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
And but even then, that's probably eight wins.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
We've seen teams go from worse to first, but most
of those teams didn't have Josh Allen the Bills in
their in their division, right, right, I mean they're you know.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
It's they're in the NFC South, that's right, or AFC South.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
But that doesn't mean New England wouldn't ump up some teams,
you know. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
And they have a soft schedule too. Their hardest home
game is Buffalo. I mean, for everybody else they play,
it's like, oh my gosh, do they have anybody challenging
them at home?
Speaker 2 (08:59):
So they've got so yeah, I'm not I'd like to
know what other teams. There's nobody in the South other
than the division winner the West. I don't know. Maybe
in the West there's one or two. But outside of that, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland,
(09:19):
behind Baltimore. You're looking at the wild card round of
the playoffs. You know New England can get into that group.
I think New England can get into that group.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Could they could? And we'll see. I mean and look
the other teams in Buffalo's division, Miami. I have them
as a top three team in this league to completely
implode this season. And while I respect Aaron Glenn as
a first time head coach, with that ownership group and
the lack of player development for the better part of
the last fifty years, he is pushing a giant boulder
(09:47):
up the hill, and in year one, I just don't
see him getting it where he'd like to. There's going
to be some hard lessons learned in New York this
year for the Jets and Aaron Glenn. Bills are also
projected to have the greatest chance to reach the divisional
playoff at almost fifty eight percent, greatest chance to reach
the AFC Title Game at almost thirty four percent. After that,
(10:08):
it gets interesting. Buffalo is third most likely, according to
ESPN projections, to reach the Super Bowl at eighteen point
four percent. The two teams ahead of them Philadelphia at
twenty point one percent and they really don't count because
they're in the NFC and Kansas City really well, what
a surprise point two percent. Again, we'll check in with
(10:29):
our guest Seth Walder on this in a bit, but
head to head history, I would think has to be
a factor with why the Chiefs are slightly ahead of
the Bills in this projection.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Your thoughts, Steve, I've could have written that without doing
the research like you did.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Yeah, you know it, But it's nineteen point two to
eighteen point four. Again, it's less than a point here
that we're talking about.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
And some of it is going to have to do
with how Baltimore fares this year and what happens around
the rest of the conference AFC. If you look around,
I mean, think about it, my friends, I mean, if
you look around at the conference stands, you've got Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore,
and then it's all it goes Houston, the Chargers, Pittsburgh, Denver.
(11:13):
Last year, that was last year, the way it fell,
Cincinnati was just out of the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
I think we're expecting Denver to be better this year.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Exported to Cincinnati, get off to a faster start or
maybe did their defense get better is and then you're
back into you get out the eight is Cincinnati. Nine
was Indianapolis last year, and with what was going on there,
their owner passed away, there's going to be some turmoil
in Indianapolis that remains to be seen how it's going
(11:42):
to affect that squad. And then you're right back to
Miami and the Jets in the I mean, yeah, so Denver,
Pittsburgh and the Chargers in Houston are outside of Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore,
who are the elite of the conference, and it looks
like they're going to be right back there again because
of the guys taking snaps, because of the connuity the
front office, but the continuity to coaching staff, because of
(12:03):
what they've got at the top of the roster, and
the guys they've got tied up who are happy playing
where they're playing. I mean, those three teams are just
not going anywhere. It's hard to it's even hard to
pry Houston into that group as a division winner.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
And they've got their own sets of problems because they
got younger at the receiver position. They completely overhaul their
offensive line, and I'm not convinced that it's better. I mean,
they just shipped Laramie Tunsel out and brought in a
draft pick, and you know, a veteran in I don't
know that their offensive line is better. And that's pretty
critical for a quarterback like CJ. Stroud, who really doesn't
run around a lot. So there are a lot of
(12:42):
factors there, and that is why you know, the cream
of the crop is probably going to remain largely the
same this year. Barring some unforeseen.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
Cincinnati might put it together and catch lightning in a
bottle again, but they notoriously get up. We'll know after
the first month of the season, first five weeks of
the season, whether it's Scinnati will know who they are. Yeah,
we'll know who they.
Speaker 1 (13:03):
Are finally to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo is also
projected third behind the Eagles and Chiefs at nine point
eight percent, Philly at eleven point five, Kansas City at
ten point eight. So if you round it up twelve,
eleven and ten. I feel like the general consensus out
there is that Philadelphia may have slid back a bit
with their free agent losses this offseason. Some feel similarly
(13:24):
about the Chiefs, especially with the changes on the left
side of their offensive line. But these simulations are sticking
with the familiar favorites, even though the margins are slim.
In fact, it's the lowest chance the preseason favorite has
had to win the title since ESPN's Football Power Index
model began in twenty fifteen. What do you make of
the narrowness and the close knit nature of the differences,
(13:47):
because it seems like even these models and simulations are
split in hairs.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I think they're getting more accurate, for lack of a
better way to put it, I think they they're getting
better and better at doing it, and they realize, Look,
you get to the end of the season. You can
see it with your play with your naked eye. A
spot on fourth down for Buffalo, that game's different. You know,
a drop passed by the Ravens in Buffalo's house, it's
(14:13):
a tie game going to overtime. You know, a fumble
earlier in the on the drive, that game goes different
between Baltimore and Buffalo. And then how does Baltimore matchup
with and all that's that's the razor thin. Not only
is Buffalo razor thin against Kansas City, Baltimore's Razor thin
at Buffalo. It goes on and on, and if Razor
(14:35):
thin and and a guy gets a concussion for Buffalo
and Benford and the first quarter. Now that whole game's changed.
You're talking about splitting hairs. That's not fine enough. You
almost got to get to the at a tom you know,
the at the atomic level, you know, to start pulling
apart molecules to pick who's gonna win these games. You
(14:58):
can't tell so well. I think they're getting narrow. Those
statistical things are getting narrow and new because they're getting
more accurate.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
Yeah, for more on these projections, we bring in the
man who helped put them together with ESPN's metrics. ESPN
analytics writer Seth Walder joins us. Now, all right, Seth,
so the Football Power Index is up and running for
twenty twenty five, and we've got some questions. First and foremost,
I know, you guys have the Eagles with the highest
(15:27):
percent chance to win the whole kit and kaboodle, and
we understand why strong roster defending Super Bowl champs. I
did think it was interesting though, that their margin to
the next couple of teams is the narrowest that you
guys have had since you've been putting these models together.
So is that an indication that the Eagles have ever
(15:48):
so slightly fallen back to the top tier of other
teams there, or or have the other teams kind of
inch their way closer, or maybe it's a combination of both.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
You tell me, I might say it's neither. I think
that you know, we go into last year's playoffs and
I don't think that we're talking about the Eagles as
being like clearly the best team in football. I think
the situation then is kind of the situation now. What
I wrote in the story is that we have this
this football oligarchy of five teams of the Eagles, the Chiefs,
(16:18):
the Bills, the Ravens, and the Lions. And I think
that it's the fact that we have all of this
cluster of teams that are so good and so close
to one another, that that's what depresses the Eagles chance to win.
Like you said, twelve percent chance to win the Super Bowl,
it's the lowest we've ever given to the favorite since
we've started these projections in twenty fifteen. It's usually in
(16:39):
the like mid teams. Though back in twenty seventeen or
eighteen now I can't remember, but the Patriots were at
thirty two percent way back then. Things have changed since that.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
What give us some of the somighties on that, because
I know there's a gazillion things you could put into
the variables of how you come up with these power ranks.
Give us some of the boulders of what really goes
in and then maybe something people don't think about.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
Sure, So actually in the preseason, this is way more
simple than you think. This is mostly driven by the
betting market. So what we do is we take the
win totals from the betting market, and then we combine
that with the each team's schedule. So if you think
about it, you have two teams both with say an
eight and a half win win total in the betting market,
(17:25):
you got to consider the juice, right, one might be
favored or the over or the under. But then you
also have to consider who those teams are playing against,
and because you might have different schedules, and if you
think about like right, if you think about it right,
so if you have an easier schedule against an eight
and a half win team, that means you're worse. You're
not as good as a team who is supposed to
(17:47):
get way to eight and a half games against a
tough schedule, so a factor in that. Then we have
the a couple other factors, like the difference between the
starting quarterback and the backup quarterback that we have a
kicker rating.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
We have.
Speaker 3 (18:03):
Some factors will determine like variants as opposed to overall quality.
So like if you have a rookie quarterback, for example,
it doesn't necessarily move you what we think the average
of your outcomes will be, but we think that maybe
your upside is higher and your downside is lower than
someone like Josh Allen. We have a pretty good idea
of who he is.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Yeah, so you mentioned schedule, and I would imagine that
our Bills fans, listeners ears perked up because the Bills
have a pretty favorable schedule, not only in terms of
strength of schedule, which is pretty weak this year, but
also the way in which some of their tougher games
have laid out on their schedule. You could argue that
(18:43):
their three toughest games this year Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, they're
all spread out. They're at week one, Week nine, and
week sixteen. Like you could not have asked for a
better layout In terms of how a lot of Buffalo
schedule lines up. The front half is relatively soft out
of that Ravens game. So knowing how tightly packed these
(19:04):
top four teams are, how much advantage could Buffalo gain
in taking advantage of a schedule that seems, at least
on paper, to line up favorably.
Speaker 3 (19:14):
Yeah, I think the schedule really does play a role here.
So we have them as the seventh easiest schedule in
the NFL. But that's going to make them of the
five teams that I mentioned at the top, that's the
easiest of that group. And so it's the reason why
I mentioned that we have that cluster of five right
and they're really tight. In terms of our ratings, we
rate Buffalo as being the fifth best team, the worst
(19:35):
of that group of five. However, we also give Buffalo
the highest projected wins of any team in the NFL,
and that right there. What's the reason. It's the schedule
and it's why Buffalo also is the third highest chance
to win the Super Bowl. So that plays a big role,
especially when we're talking about a group of teams that
are all so close. That schedule is huge.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
One of the things about is what you look around
at those teams, the Kansas City's, Buffalo's, Baltimore's, Detroit's Phillies.
Not much has changed in Kansas City, although well, not
much has changed with Kelsey, with Andy Reid and Pat
Mahomes and everybody else seems to be you know, plug in,
plug out. How does is there a year over year
consideration for continuity? Is there a year over year consideration
(20:21):
for you know, having a guy like Josh coming back
into the MVP, as Lamar coming back it's a two
time MVP. How does that affect the overall view of
what you can expect? I mean, it almost doesn't seem
like the chief it matters to any of the chiefs.
So what happens outside of Mahomes and Nandy? Right?
Speaker 3 (20:40):
Yeah, No, I think that continuity matters implicitly in the model.
It's not explicitly in the sense that the betting mark
is certainly going to take it on account. The way
the area where it will count explicitly would be in
coaching changes, but we're not talking about that. There there
are changes, of course in Kansas City, like they have
made some offensive line moves. They traded your tony left tackle.
(21:01):
They bring in a guy Jalen Moore that I have
a lot of questions about that. They also drafted a
first round rookie who might feel that spot. So sure, yes,
like Mahomes, Reid Kelsey, Chris Jones. On the other side,
the stars are still there. But do you feel especially
a year where coming out of it you wonder about
(21:22):
their offensive line, do you feel better about their offensive
line today? I'm not so sure that you do, and
so I think there are some questions there for the Chiefs.
But I take your point about the continuity of those stars,
and that certainly matters.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
Last one we've got for you, Seth, and you covered
this in your projection right up. But the AFC East
as a whole, the Bills are still considered the top banana,
and we understand why. I don't expect much competition in
terms of the division title, but I do think the
order in which the teams line up after the Bills
(21:56):
is subject to change this year. Steve and I are
pretty bullish on the Patriots. With a proven coach and
Mike Rabel and an emerging quarterback talent in Drake May,
neither of us would be surprised if they're the team
right behind the Bills and maybe even flirting for playoff berth.
But how do you kind of see this shaking out?
Speaker 3 (22:15):
Yeah, I get that we have its super close between
Miami and the Patriots. We have Miami eight point two wins,
the Patriots at eight point one wins. So you think
about how much variance there is here in the margins
of error, those two teams are right there. I agree
with you, and they're also it's they're going in opposite directions.
That doesn't mean that the Patriots necessarily leapfrog them, but
(22:36):
I agree with your general premise that there is reason
to be optimistic about what's happening in New England. They
certainly added a ton of like just talent to that roster.
I didn't like, personally love a lot of the moves
that they made in terms of the value, but like,
there's no question that they brought in they have a
better team right now, and I think that everyone is
(22:58):
kind of on board with Drake May they have going
on there. So I'm with you. We put thirty four
percent chance that the Patriots make the playoffs. That feels
right to me. I think that it's got to go
right for them, But you can imagine how that works out.
And so I could see New England making it there
only fourteen percent chance to win the division. That's I
think pretty unlikely. You're going to need just a massive
(23:20):
step up from May or maybe a you know, an
injury in Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
The Miami New England games this year, one happens in
Week two, the other one doesn't happen until Week eighteen,
So those two teams could be in vastly different spots
by the time they meet for that second round.
Speaker 3 (23:36):
Yes, that's that's a great point. Yeah, you've got that okay, right,
And it's New England going down to Miami in early
September it's going to be hot, and then you and
then the flip side going to New England in the snow,
so that could be Yeah, those are could be wildly
different games.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
Yeah, thanks for the time. As always, we appreciate it.
We'll keep an eye on more of what you've got
to offer there on the analytics page there at ESPN
dot com. Much appreciate it. Thanks guys, good conversation there
with Seth Walder. We transition now to the Numbers game,
where Steve will be quizzed on one loss success against
Buffalo's twenty twenty five opponents. Steve Tasker, are you ready?
(24:13):
Question number one? Which Bill's opponent in twenty twenty five
that is not a division rival? Does Buffalo have the
poorest one loss record against in the regular season? Historically
worst regular season record against this twenty twenty five opponent
for the Bills that is not in their division.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
We've got two. I've got two candidates. I'm thinking Cincinnati
or Tampa.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
Bay, and both would be incorrect.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
But I didn't guess yet.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
Okay, then what is your final answer?
Speaker 2 (24:54):
Philly?
Speaker 1 (24:55):
It is Philadelphia eleven and nineteen against the Eagles all
time and the regular That is a three sixty six
win percentage. Yet, don't do it again. Question number two,
Which Bill's opponent in twenty twenty five that is not
a division rival? Does Buffalo have the best one loss
record against in the regular season? Flipping it around here.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
In Kansas City? Is not care? Really? Oh man?
Speaker 1 (25:23):
They were in the running, Yeah, not KNT.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
I have some scar tissue from some of these, you know,
And I can't do it. I can't. I'm gonna say
Atlanta is not Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (25:48):
It's the Carolina Panthers with a six and two record
an eight hundred winning percentage against the team.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
From kind of guessing.
Speaker 1 (25:55):
But then I had whatever I always guess, expansion teams. Three.
How many Bills opponents in twenty twenty five that are
not division rivals? Does Buffalo have a winning record against
in the regular season? You already know one? It was
the previous answer.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
So how many TOTLL scens does Bills have a winning
record against that aren't division upon?
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Three?
Speaker 1 (26:29):
The Wheels? Five it's actually for ste just just misbe
the marsh name them. I'm gonna ask you a question
number four. Can you name the four opponents on this
year's schedule who are not division opponents? Who Buffalo has
a regular season winning record against?
Speaker 2 (26:45):
Carolina Panthers. Correct, I'm musa say Houston Texans.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
No, I'll say.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
The Browns. Nope, g many crickets. I'm stum. So it
was a Panthers.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
You guessed one earlier, and I said that was a
good guess.
Speaker 2 (27:06):
Oh yeah, who was was? Uh? That was the worst
record though?
Speaker 1 (27:10):
No, No, the answer was the Carolina Panthers For the
best one.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
I guessed. I guessed oh, I guess Tampa Bay, Tampa
Bay six and four, and I guessed. I'll say.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
New Orleans, New Orleans seven and five. There's one left,
and it's the one you guessed.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
I had, I had, I know, I'm gonna say, who
wasn't Tampa Bay and Cincinnati?
Speaker 1 (27:43):
No's Kansas City twenty eight, twenty one and one. Al Right,
So those are your answers, and that is this addition
was a very middling the numbers effort by myself got
off to a hot start with a clever end around there,
and then you were punished for it thanks to the
karma guy. Bill's fans. Get in on the action with FanDuel,
(28:04):
America's number one sportsbook. Just download the app today to
play anyway you want. Plus, with live betting, you'll get
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you get paide your winning fast, make every moment more
with FanDuel Official Sportsbook, partner of the Buffalo Bills. Time
now for our one burning question, Steve, what do you
believe is a realistic.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Win total for Buffalo this season?
Speaker 1 (28:25):
ESPN's Football Power Index put the number a ten point six.
I think we both believe it'll be over that, but how.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
Much over I think twelve is the floor.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
Twelve is the floor.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Yeah, I think they Yeah, I think they've got a
chance for a really special year this year. I'm gonna
say twelve, and I think that's low. Yeah, I think
at the at the high end, depending on you know,
obviously we were just talking about how narrow the margins are. Yeah,
I think if they stay healthy, it's fourteen.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
Yeah, games, I think yeah, I think best case scenario,
it's fourteen. I kind of agree with your floor. So
I'm gonna sit right in the middle and say thirteen
is mine.
Speaker 3 (29:07):
They are.
Speaker 2 (29:08):
They've got a good roster, a deep roster, a talented roster.
But there's you know, the variables are what we don't know.
If they stay healthy, the sky is the limit. They
should be not satisfied with anything but the one seed
if they stay healthy.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Our closing figure deals with Buffalo's one loss record. Buffalo
has had six double digit win seasons in a row
under head coach Sean McDermott. The last time the Bills
had six consecutive double digit win seasons was well, never.
They've never done it until Sean McDermott made it six
(29:46):
straight in twenty twenty four, the closest they've come previously.
With Steve's early nineties crew, they had four consecutive double
digit win seasons and five in six years. The interruption
of that stretch came in nineteen eighty nine when the
Bickering bills nine and we were eleven.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
We were six and seven at one point, No, we
were seven and seven after fourteen games in that season.
They had to win. We had to win two of
our last. No, we had to win three of our
last If we won three of our last three, win
the last three in a row, we would have been
in the playoffs. One that we'd have been gold. As
it was, we only won two of them. But we
(30:23):
got some help. Yeah, we got in as a wild card.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
That will do it for this episode. Make sure you
subscribe so you're notified when the next edition is out,
because when you need to know about the bills, you
need to check bills by the numbers for Steed Tasker,
I'm Chris Brown. Thanks for listening. Well, catch it next time, everybody,
It's another edition of Bills by the Numbers, where we
let the stats tell you where the Bills are at.
We're brought to you by Fan Duel Make every moment
more coming up, It's projection time for twenty twenty five.
Where does ESPN's Football Power Index have the Bills. We'll
check in with ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder to find out.
Steve is quizzed on one lost record history versus Buffalo's
(00:22):
twenty twenty five opponents, and we'll have our one burning question.
Let's talk wins and losses, all right, Please to have
you here with us on Bills by the Numbers, Bills
(00:44):
Wall of Famer Steve Tasker, Bills play by playman Chris
Brown with you as always, And it's that time of
year with NFL rosters largely said, It's time for twenty
twenty five projections. First and foremost, ESPN's Football Power Index
has the Bills ranked fifth behind in order, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Baltimore,
(01:04):
and Detroit. For those who do not know, Football Power
Index measures a team's true strength based on a net
point scale and an expected point margin versus an average
opponent on a neutral field. Did you get all that
Buffalo's total FPI is a four point six and the
Eagles top this listed five point five. So we're talking
about what amounts to a marginal difference, and in essence
(01:27):
means none of them would be favored by more than
a point over another on a neutral field. The biggest
reason why the Bills were fifth is because of their defense,
which ranks twelfth in their Football Power Index, and their
special teams, which ranks twenty eighth. Now, those are defensive
units and special teams units that as of now obviously
(01:48):
are site unseen. So despite being tops in the league
in offense in their FPI rankings, their defense and special
teams pulls their collective FPI down. Now, I think both
Steve and I believe the defense in spe special teams
will demonstrate improvement for the Bills this fall. The question
is to what degree must that defense and special teams improve,
(02:09):
Steve to get Buffalo to the super Bolt.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Well, the old adage was back in the day, it's
always been special teams should win you a cup two games.
That was in a sixteen game schedule, win two games
and lose you zero.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
But you've said in recent years it's harder for special
teams to generate that kind of a margin.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Very much so, and a lot of times in most games,
you're very happy if you get a push, if you
don't give up a big play, don't get a big play,
don't turn it over. I mean, you don't have a misque, right,
don't have a misqueue. Don't give up a you know,
fifty yard return, even if it doesn't go for a touchdown.
Flip the field. You got to make them work for
every yard. Doesn't always happen that way, but I think
(02:49):
that's that's got to be the the low bar, the floor,
that's got to be the floor. Yeah, certainly. You know
Tyler back hitting a sixty one yard er to beat Miami,
you know that's a huge plus. Codrington's returns last year,
I thought, we're a huge plus. The Bills don't punt
(03:11):
that much. Punk coverage And I'll say this too as
a former guy who used to chase kicks. If you
don't do it very much, you're not very good at it.
So your offense is good, but your punk coverage unit
is gonna stink because they don't have any reps. You
don't get live reps. You can never I say never,
(03:31):
you almost never get any live special teams reps except
in games. Historically, the best kickoff return team in the
National Football League has been the ones with the worst
defensive units because they give up points, they get kicked
off to a lot, they get a lot of live reps.
(03:51):
That kind of still has That's still the case, except
that last year nobody returned kicks anyway. Right, this year
that might change. And with the Bills scoring a lot
of points, they're gonna get a lot of reps covering kicks.
They're gonna get better at it. They're gonna get better
at it.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
Yeah, And I'm encouraged with Chris Tabor on board as
special teams coordinator. This is a veteran special teams coach
who's done it at the NFL level. It's the first
time since twenty eighteen that the Bills have had a
special teams coordinator in that seat with prior NFL experience
in that role. I think what he's going to be
able to bring to the table in terms of scheming
(04:30):
will help give Buffalo some edges here and there through
the course of the season as well. And it's been
well documented what the Bills have done to add to
their defensive unit, both on the back end and the
front end, with a huge number of newcomers in plentiful supply. Now,
what's more interesting is when it comes to ESPN's win
(04:50):
total projections, Buffalo is atop the league with a win
projection of ten point six. Right behind them is Baltimore
and Kansas City at ten point four, Philadelphia at ten
point two.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
We'll get it.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Confirmed from Seth Walder when we catch up with him,
but we have to believe that Buffalo's strength of schedule
or lack thereof, likely came into play with this projection.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
It has to. You look at we make a big
deal out of the schedule because it's a lot of fun,
because so many of us plan travel and trips. But
that's just for us, right, It's for our personal it's
for our fun. Right when you start getting into it
about the competitive side of it, the Bill schedule, as
much as it could be being a first place schedule,
(05:33):
it's a cakewalk, as much as an NFL schedule can
be a cakewalk. You've only got six teams on the
schedule that were in the playoffs last year, not nine six.
That's hard to do with a first play schedule, particularly
also that they're playing the NFC South, you know, Tampa
(05:55):
Bay and New Orleans, Carolina and all that. That all
kind of rolls into it a week division out of conference.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
All of those teams were very middling teams, with the
exception of Tampa Bay, who won the division and made
the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
That's right, well, and there you have it. It's gonna
be the Bills should be able to make hay during
stretches of their season. They should put together some win streaks.
Now they always seem to with Josh and these guys.
And this offense is a load. I mean, it's a
it's a it's a wrecking crew. So they're going to
score points this year again, So that alone will win
(06:33):
them games because other teams offenses can't be that efficient.
They're just not ready for it. So the schedule really
is tilted in Buffalo's favor when you look at other
teams in that like the top this group of elite teams,
any of the Baltimore's and Detroit's and the you know,
Kansas City's of the world. Yeah, so Bills fans have
(06:56):
a reason to be very optimistic. They may there may
be a there's a scenario where the Bills, even in
week to week through the season, the Bills may never
be the underdog in a game.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
ESPN's analytics has the Bills atop the league with an
eighty one point one percent chance to make the playoffs
and a sixty five percent chance to win the division,
also highest in the league. Knowing the competitive nature of
other divisions like the AFC North, the AFC West, and
the NFC North, just to name a few, you can
understand why Buffalo is such a heavy favorite to win
(07:28):
their sixth straight division title. We're expecting, you know, a
team like New England to improve steve, but to threaten
them for the division title even with a soft fourth
place schedule seems unlikely.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
Well, so much has changed in New England. I mean,
we're blindfolded and throwing darts. You don't know what to expect.
Even if they double their win total last year, it's
not going to be good enough. That'd be give them
eight wins. They were four and thirteen. They could not
win games, and one of the wins was a Week
eighteen laydown by by All Riots. It should have been
(08:03):
three and fourteen. Their season, their roster needed a lot
of work, which they had the money and the gun,
and they spent it and tried to refurbish it with
a new head coach. They're on a honeymoon period. They
built this team the way Mike Vrabel wanted it, built
the quarterback, and they got a quarterback that people are
very high on. So you and I are very bullish
(08:27):
on the Patriots. I think they're going to get much
better as that season rolls along.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
And but even then, that's probably eight wins.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
We've seen teams go from worse to first, but most
of those teams didn't have Josh Allen the Bills in
their in their division, right, right, I mean they're you know.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
It's they're in the NFC South, that's right, or AFC South.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
But that doesn't mean New England wouldn't ump up some teams,
you know. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
And they have a soft schedule too. Their hardest home
game is Buffalo. I mean, for everybody else they play,
it's like, oh my gosh, do they have anybody challenging
them at home?
Speaker 2 (08:59):
So they've got so yeah, I'm not I'd like to
know what other teams. There's nobody in the South other
than the division winner the West. I don't know. Maybe
in the West there's one or two. But outside of that, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland,
(09:19):
behind Baltimore. You're looking at the wild card round of
the playoffs. You know New England can get into that group.
I think New England can get into that group.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Could they could? And we'll see. I mean and look
the other teams in Buffalo's division, Miami. I have them
as a top three team in this league to completely
implode this season. And while I respect Aaron Glenn as
a first time head coach, with that ownership group and
the lack of player development for the better part of
the last fifty years, he is pushing a giant boulder
(09:47):
up the hill, and in year one, I just don't
see him getting it where he'd like to. There's going
to be some hard lessons learned in New York this
year for the Jets and Aaron Glenn. Bills are also
projected to have the greatest chance to reach the divisional
playoff at almost fifty eight percent, greatest chance to reach
the AFC Title Game at almost thirty four percent. After that,
(10:08):
it gets interesting. Buffalo is third most likely, according to
ESPN projections, to reach the Super Bowl at eighteen point
four percent. The two teams ahead of them Philadelphia at
twenty point one percent and they really don't count because
they're in the NFC and Kansas City really well, what
a surprise point two percent. Again, we'll check in with
(10:29):
our guest Seth Walder on this in a bit, but
head to head history, I would think has to be
a factor with why the Chiefs are slightly ahead of
the Bills in this projection.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Your thoughts, Steve, I've could have written that without doing
the research like you did.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Yeah, you know it, But it's nineteen point two to
eighteen point four. Again, it's less than a point here
that we're talking about.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
And some of it is going to have to do
with how Baltimore fares this year and what happens around
the rest of the conference AFC. If you look around,
I mean, think about it, my friends, I mean, if
you look around at the conference stands, you've got Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore,
and then it's all it goes Houston, the Chargers, Pittsburgh, Denver.
(11:13):
Last year, that was last year, the way it fell,
Cincinnati was just out of the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
I think we're expecting Denver to be better this year.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Exported to Cincinnati, get off to a faster start or
maybe did their defense get better is and then you're
back into you get out the eight is Cincinnati. Nine
was Indianapolis last year, and with what was going on there,
their owner passed away, there's going to be some turmoil
in Indianapolis that remains to be seen how it's going
(11:42):
to affect that squad. And then you're right back to
Miami and the Jets in the I mean, yeah, so Denver,
Pittsburgh and the Chargers in Houston are outside of Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore,
who are the elite of the conference, and it looks
like they're going to be right back there again because
of the guys taking snaps, because of the connuity the
front office, but the continuity to coaching staff, because of
(12:03):
what they've got at the top of the roster, and
the guys they've got tied up who are happy playing
where they're playing. I mean, those three teams are just
not going anywhere. It's hard to it's even hard to
pry Houston into that group as a division winner.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
And they've got their own sets of problems because they
got younger at the receiver position. They completely overhaul their
offensive line, and I'm not convinced that it's better. I mean,
they just shipped Laramie Tunsel out and brought in a
draft pick, and you know, a veteran in I don't
know that their offensive line is better. And that's pretty
critical for a quarterback like CJ. Stroud, who really doesn't
run around a lot. So there are a lot of
(12:42):
factors there, and that is why you know, the cream
of the crop is probably going to remain largely the
same this year. Barring some unforeseen.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
Cincinnati might put it together and catch lightning in a
bottle again, but they notoriously get up. We'll know after
the first month of the season, first five weeks of
the season, whether it's Scinnati will know who they are. Yeah,
we'll know who they.
Speaker 1 (13:03):
Are finally to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo is also
projected third behind the Eagles and Chiefs at nine point
eight percent, Philly at eleven point five, Kansas City at
ten point eight. So if you round it up twelve,
eleven and ten. I feel like the general consensus out
there is that Philadelphia may have slid back a bit
with their free agent losses this offseason. Some feel similarly
(13:24):
about the Chiefs, especially with the changes on the left
side of their offensive line. But these simulations are sticking
with the familiar favorites, even though the margins are slim.
In fact, it's the lowest chance the preseason favorite has
had to win the title since ESPN's Football Power Index
model began in twenty fifteen. What do you make of
the narrowness and the close knit nature of the differences,
(13:47):
because it seems like even these models and simulations are
split in hairs.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I think they're getting more accurate, for lack of a
better way to put it, I think they they're getting
better and better at doing it, and they realize, Look,
you get to the end of the season. You can
see it with your play with your naked eye. A
spot on fourth down for Buffalo, that game's different. You know,
a drop passed by the Ravens in Buffalo's house, it's
(14:13):
a tie game going to overtime. You know, a fumble
earlier in the on the drive, that game goes different
between Baltimore and Buffalo. And then how does Baltimore matchup
with and all that's that's the razor thin. Not only
is Buffalo razor thin against Kansas City, Baltimore's Razor thin
at Buffalo. It goes on and on, and if Razor
(14:35):
thin and and a guy gets a concussion for Buffalo
and Benford and the first quarter. Now that whole game's changed.
You're talking about splitting hairs. That's not fine enough. You
almost got to get to the at a tom you know,
the at the atomic level, you know, to start pulling
apart molecules to pick who's gonna win these games. You
(14:58):
can't tell so well. I think they're getting narrow. Those
statistical things are getting narrow and new because they're getting
more accurate.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
Yeah, for more on these projections, we bring in the
man who helped put them together with ESPN's metrics. ESPN
analytics writer Seth Walder joins us. Now, all right, Seth,
so the Football Power Index is up and running for
twenty twenty five, and we've got some questions. First and foremost,
I know, you guys have the Eagles with the highest
(15:27):
percent chance to win the whole kit and kaboodle, and
we understand why strong roster defending Super Bowl champs. I
did think it was interesting though, that their margin to
the next couple of teams is the narrowest that you
guys have had since you've been putting these models together.
So is that an indication that the Eagles have ever
(15:48):
so slightly fallen back to the top tier of other
teams there, or or have the other teams kind of
inch their way closer, or maybe it's a combination of both.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
You tell me, I might say it's neither. I think
that you know, we go into last year's playoffs and
I don't think that we're talking about the Eagles as
being like clearly the best team in football. I think
the situation then is kind of the situation now. What
I wrote in the story is that we have this
this football oligarchy of five teams of the Eagles, the Chiefs,
(16:18):
the Bills, the Ravens, and the Lions. And I think
that it's the fact that we have all of this
cluster of teams that are so good and so close
to one another, that that's what depresses the Eagles chance to win.
Like you said, twelve percent chance to win the Super Bowl,
it's the lowest we've ever given to the favorite since
we've started these projections in twenty fifteen. It's usually in
(16:39):
the like mid teams. Though back in twenty seventeen or
eighteen now I can't remember, but the Patriots were at
thirty two percent way back then. Things have changed since that.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
What give us some of the somighties on that, because
I know there's a gazillion things you could put into
the variables of how you come up with these power ranks.
Give us some of the boulders of what really goes
in and then maybe something people don't think about.
Speaker 3 (17:04):
Sure, So actually in the preseason, this is way more
simple than you think. This is mostly driven by the
betting market. So what we do is we take the
win totals from the betting market, and then we combine
that with the each team's schedule. So if you think
about it, you have two teams both with say an
eight and a half win win total in the betting market,
(17:25):
you got to consider the juice, right, one might be
favored or the over or the under. But then you
also have to consider who those teams are playing against,
and because you might have different schedules, and if you
think about like right, if you think about it right,
so if you have an easier schedule against an eight
and a half win team, that means you're worse. You're
not as good as a team who is supposed to
(17:47):
get way to eight and a half games against a
tough schedule, so a factor in that. Then we have
the a couple other factors, like the difference between the
starting quarterback and the backup quarterback that we have a
kicker rating.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
We have.
Speaker 3 (18:03):
Some factors will determine like variants as opposed to overall quality.
So like if you have a rookie quarterback, for example,
it doesn't necessarily move you what we think the average
of your outcomes will be, but we think that maybe
your upside is higher and your downside is lower than
someone like Josh Allen. We have a pretty good idea
of who he is.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Yeah, so you mentioned schedule, and I would imagine that
our Bills fans, listeners ears perked up because the Bills
have a pretty favorable schedule, not only in terms of
strength of schedule, which is pretty weak this year, but
also the way in which some of their tougher games
have laid out on their schedule. You could argue that
(18:43):
their three toughest games this year Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, they're
all spread out. They're at week one, Week nine, and
week sixteen. Like you could not have asked for a
better layout In terms of how a lot of Buffalo
schedule lines up. The front half is relatively soft out
of that Ravens game. So knowing how tightly packed these
(19:04):
top four teams are, how much advantage could Buffalo gain
in taking advantage of a schedule that seems, at least
on paper, to line up favorably.
Speaker 3 (19:14):
Yeah, I think the schedule really does play a role here.
So we have them as the seventh easiest schedule in
the NFL. But that's going to make them of the
five teams that I mentioned at the top, that's the
easiest of that group. And so it's the reason why
I mentioned that we have that cluster of five right
and they're really tight. In terms of our ratings, we
rate Buffalo as being the fifth best team, the worst
(19:35):
of that group of five. However, we also give Buffalo
the highest projected wins of any team in the NFL,
and that right there. What's the reason. It's the schedule
and it's why Buffalo also is the third highest chance
to win the Super Bowl. So that plays a big role,
especially when we're talking about a group of teams that
are all so close. That schedule is huge.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
One of the things about is what you look around
at those teams, the Kansas City's, Buffalo's, Baltimore's, Detroit's Phillies.
Not much has changed in Kansas City, although well, not
much has changed with Kelsey, with Andy Reid and Pat
Mahomes and everybody else seems to be you know, plug in,
plug out. How does is there a year over year
consideration for continuity? Is there a year over year consideration
(20:21):
for you know, having a guy like Josh coming back
into the MVP, as Lamar coming back it's a two
time MVP. How does that affect the overall view of
what you can expect? I mean, it almost doesn't seem
like the chief it matters to any of the chiefs.
So what happens outside of Mahomes and Nandy? Right?
Speaker 3 (20:40):
Yeah, No, I think that continuity matters implicitly in the model.
It's not explicitly in the sense that the betting mark
is certainly going to take it on account. The way
the area where it will count explicitly would be in
coaching changes, but we're not talking about that. There there
are changes, of course in Kansas City, like they have
made some offensive line moves. They traded your tony left tackle.
(21:01):
They bring in a guy Jalen Moore that I have
a lot of questions about that. They also drafted a
first round rookie who might feel that spot. So sure, yes,
like Mahomes, Reid Kelsey, Chris Jones. On the other side,
the stars are still there. But do you feel especially
a year where coming out of it you wonder about
(21:22):
their offensive line, do you feel better about their offensive
line today? I'm not so sure that you do, and
so I think there are some questions there for the Chiefs.
But I take your point about the continuity of those stars,
and that certainly matters.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
Last one we've got for you, Seth, and you covered
this in your projection right up. But the AFC East
as a whole, the Bills are still considered the top banana,
and we understand why. I don't expect much competition in
terms of the division title, but I do think the
order in which the teams line up after the Bills
(21:56):
is subject to change this year. Steve and I are
pretty bullish on the Patriots. With a proven coach and
Mike Rabel and an emerging quarterback talent in Drake May,
neither of us would be surprised if they're the team
right behind the Bills and maybe even flirting for playoff berth.
But how do you kind of see this shaking out?
Speaker 3 (22:15):
Yeah, I get that we have its super close between
Miami and the Patriots. We have Miami eight point two wins,
the Patriots at eight point one wins. So you think
about how much variance there is here in the margins
of error, those two teams are right there. I agree
with you, and they're also it's they're going in opposite directions.
That doesn't mean that the Patriots necessarily leapfrog them, but
(22:36):
I agree with your general premise that there is reason
to be optimistic about what's happening in New England. They
certainly added a ton of like just talent to that roster.
I didn't like, personally love a lot of the moves
that they made in terms of the value, but like,
there's no question that they brought in they have a
better team right now, and I think that everyone is
(22:58):
kind of on board with Drake May they have going
on there. So I'm with you. We put thirty four
percent chance that the Patriots make the playoffs. That feels
right to me. I think that it's got to go
right for them, But you can imagine how that works out.
And so I could see New England making it there
only fourteen percent chance to win the division. That's I
think pretty unlikely. You're going to need just a massive
(23:20):
step up from May or maybe a you know, an
injury in Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
The Miami New England games this year, one happens in
Week two, the other one doesn't happen until Week eighteen,
So those two teams could be in vastly different spots
by the time they meet for that second round.
Speaker 3 (23:36):
Yes, that's that's a great point. Yeah, you've got that okay, right,
And it's New England going down to Miami in early
September it's going to be hot, and then you and
then the flip side going to New England in the snow,
so that could be Yeah, those are could be wildly
different games.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
Yeah, thanks for the time. As always, we appreciate it.
We'll keep an eye on more of what you've got
to offer there on the analytics page there at ESPN
dot com. Much appreciate it. Thanks guys, good conversation there
with Seth Walder. We transition now to the Numbers game,
where Steve will be quizzed on one loss success against
Buffalo's twenty twenty five opponents. Steve Tasker, are you ready?
(24:13):
Question number one? Which Bill's opponent in twenty twenty five
that is not a division rival? Does Buffalo have the
poorest one loss record against in the regular season? Historically
worst regular season record against this twenty twenty five opponent
for the Bills that is not in their division.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
We've got two. I've got two candidates. I'm thinking Cincinnati
or Tampa.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
Bay, and both would be incorrect.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
But I didn't guess yet.
Speaker 1 (24:52):
Okay, then what is your final answer?
Speaker 2 (24:54):
Philly?
Speaker 1 (24:55):
It is Philadelphia eleven and nineteen against the Eagles all
time and the regular That is a three sixty six
win percentage. Yet, don't do it again. Question number two,
Which Bill's opponent in twenty twenty five that is not
a division rival? Does Buffalo have the best one loss
record against in the regular season? Flipping it around here.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
In Kansas City? Is not care? Really? Oh man?
Speaker 1 (25:23):
They were in the running, Yeah, not KNT.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
I have some scar tissue from some of these, you know,
And I can't do it. I can't. I'm gonna say
Atlanta is not Atlanta.
Speaker 1 (25:48):
It's the Carolina Panthers with a six and two record
an eight hundred winning percentage against the team.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
From kind of guessing.
Speaker 1 (25:55):
But then I had whatever I always guess, expansion teams. Three.
How many Bills opponents in twenty twenty five that are
not division rivals? Does Buffalo have a winning record against
in the regular season? You already know one? It was
the previous answer.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
So how many TOTLL scens does Bills have a winning
record against that aren't division upon?
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Three?
Speaker 1 (26:29):
The Wheels? Five it's actually for ste just just misbe
the marsh name them. I'm gonna ask you a question
number four. Can you name the four opponents on this
year's schedule who are not division opponents? Who Buffalo has
a regular season winning record against?
Speaker 2 (26:45):
Carolina Panthers. Correct, I'm musa say Houston Texans.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
No, I'll say.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
The Browns. Nope, g many crickets. I'm stum. So it
was a Panthers.
Speaker 1 (27:02):
You guessed one earlier, and I said that was a
good guess.
Speaker 2 (27:06):
Oh yeah, who was was? Uh? That was the worst
record though?
Speaker 1 (27:10):
No, No, the answer was the Carolina Panthers For the
best one.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
I guessed. I guessed oh, I guess Tampa Bay, Tampa
Bay six and four, and I guessed. I'll say.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
New Orleans, New Orleans seven and five. There's one left,
and it's the one you guessed.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
I had, I had, I know, I'm gonna say, who
wasn't Tampa Bay and Cincinnati?
Speaker 1 (27:43):
No's Kansas City twenty eight, twenty one and one. Al Right,
So those are your answers, and that is this addition
was a very middling the numbers effort by myself got
off to a hot start with a clever end around there,
and then you were punished for it thanks to the
karma guy. Bill's fans. Get in on the action with FanDuel,
(28:04):
America's number one sportsbook. Just download the app today to
play anyway you want. Plus, with live betting, you'll get
updated odds on games that have already started. Best of all,
you get paide your winning fast, make every moment more
with FanDuel Official Sportsbook, partner of the Buffalo Bills. Time
now for our one burning question, Steve, what do you
believe is a realistic.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Win total for Buffalo this season?
Speaker 1 (28:25):
ESPN's Football Power Index put the number a ten point six.
I think we both believe it'll be over that, but how.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
Much over I think twelve is the floor.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
Twelve is the floor.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Yeah, I think they Yeah, I think they've got a
chance for a really special year this year. I'm gonna
say twelve, and I think that's low. Yeah, I think
at the at the high end, depending on you know,
obviously we were just talking about how narrow the margins are. Yeah,
I think if they stay healthy, it's fourteen.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
Yeah, games, I think yeah, I think best case scenario,
it's fourteen. I kind of agree with your floor. So
I'm gonna sit right in the middle and say thirteen
is mine.
Speaker 3 (29:07):
They are.
Speaker 2 (29:08):
They've got a good roster, a deep roster, a talented roster.
But there's you know, the variables are what we don't know.
If they stay healthy, the sky is the limit. They
should be not satisfied with anything but the one seed
if they stay healthy.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Our closing figure deals with Buffalo's one loss record. Buffalo
has had six double digit win seasons in a row
under head coach Sean McDermott. The last time the Bills
had six consecutive double digit win seasons was well, never.
They've never done it until Sean McDermott made it six
(29:46):
straight in twenty twenty four, the closest they've come previously.
With Steve's early nineties crew, they had four consecutive double
digit win seasons and five in six years. The interruption
of that stretch came in nineteen eighty nine when the
Bickering bills nine and we were eleven.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
We were six and seven at one point, No, we
were seven and seven after fourteen games in that season.
They had to win. We had to win two of
our last. No, we had to win three of our
last If we won three of our last three, win
the last three in a row, we would have been
in the playoffs. One that we'd have been gold. As
it was, we only won two of them. But we
(30:23):
got some help. Yeah, we got in as a wild card.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
That will do it for this episode. Make sure you
subscribe so you're notified when the next edition is out,
because when you need to know about the bills, you
need to check bills by the numbers for Steed Tasker,
I'm Chris Brown. Thanks for listening. Well, catch it next time, everybody,
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