October 2, 2025 • 26 mins
On this week's episode of Bills by the Numbers presented by FanDuel, Chris Brown and Steve Tasker take a look at the team's defense through four games. They discuss what needs to be fixed, the top priorities as the season rolls on, and the impact of players returning from injury and suspension. They also looked ahead to the possible contributions from rookie CB Maxwell Hairston when he comes off of injured reserve. Steve is quizzed on Bills-Patriots history in The Numbers Game. Finally, the two give their answer to this week's One Burning Question - who should the Bills be worried about in the AFC race?
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good to see you. Happy to have you along with
us for Bills by the Numbers, where we let the
stats tell you where the Bills are at. We're presented
by Fandue'll make every moment more. Coming up, a deeper
look at Buffalo's defense. What's fixable and what's top priority?
How much should be expected to improve when Matt Mulano
and Ed Oliver return from injury, and what kind of
(00:21):
bump can Michael Hoyd and Larry ogun Joby provide? And
can Max Hairstep be a contributor down the stretch. A
lot of ground to cover, so let's get after it now.
(00:44):
Thanks for joining. He's Bill's Wall of Famer Steve Pasker
on Bills play by playman Chris Brown, and we begin
this episode with a look at what's ailing the Bills defense. First,
I think we can all agree that Buffalo's defense has
been clutch when needed most through the first month of
the season, much like last year. Many of those clutch
plays have been takeaways at Oliver in Week one, forcing
(01:07):
the Derrick Henry fumble to beat Baltimore, the strip sack
forced fumble by Joey Bosa in Week two with the Jets,
the Terrell Bernard interception in the fourth quarter against Miami
in Week three and the Cole Bishop interception at the
two yard line in Week four. Much like last year,
takeaways have carried the day for Buffalo's defense, and as
(01:27):
coach McDermott says, the ball is the thing, and he's right,
but here there are fundamental elements to good defensive football
that's missing from this Bill's unit right now as we
begin these three things, what do you see, Steve as
in need of fixing.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
First, I think they've got to start winning the line
of scrimmage a little better. Their DAP integrity is suffered
because of it. You get guys pushed out and there's
just too much space in there. I think they've really
struggled to hold the line of scrimmage up front. In
the run game. Certainly, the Baltimore Ravens are a different animal.
(02:08):
They can throw fifteen hundred pounds of blockers and ball
carrier at any gap in the front, and that's a
hard thing to hold up to. But you know, they've
been getting gashed in the run game and the regularity
of that is troubling.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Right, And look, run defense is rooted in sound fundamental
tackling and the gap assignments. As you mentioned, and we
discussed this on the Daily Show a little bit too,
that the first four weeks of the regular season have
almost become the new preseason because nobody's tackling. No starters
are playing in the three game preseason anymore. Your amount
(02:49):
of padded practices are at the lowest number they've ever
been since the twenty eleven CBA was signed and practice
time was reduced precipitously, and so guys playing at full
speed and tackling with good fundamental technique has to be
almost relearned through the first few games of the season.
And I guess there's a part of me that's hoping
(03:11):
that's one of the biggest reasons why there's.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Certainly an adjustment period every season where these guys get
back and said, oh, yeah, I remember how I kind
of do this and do that, and and the techniques
and fundamentals you can say, well, they're fundamental. No, they've changed.
Over the course of the evolution of the NFL. They
have changed. Players are not allowed to play defense or
tackle in the same way and use the same techniques
(03:35):
they have used in the past. Now Tackling is still crucial,
but you can't tackle the way you used to tackle.
And the emphasis has shifted and the Bills are a
perfect example of this. The emphasis has shifted from yardage
to possession. It's not about stopping them for it. They'll
give defenses these days, will give you yards for Christmas,
(03:57):
but they want the ball. They're going to get the ball.
And that's what has changed fundamentally in the NFL and
what their defensive mindset.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
And that's what coach McDermott emphasizes, right. He's even said,
you as a coach, you get what you emphasize, and
they emphasize the ball being the thing. Our second thing
is do you have a second area you want to
see have? Yeah, more consistency on the defensive side of.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
One of the things that the Bills are getting nicked,
and you saw it in large measure against the Saints
this last weekend is eye discipline. They're getting caught up
because they have struggled in stopping the run. I think
they are diving in. They are going for first thing
and misdirection has squashed them. It's it really reared its
head in the in the Saints game. The backside where
(04:41):
you know they're trying to crash down on the backside
and they and the quarterback gets around the end or
an end, a round gets around them. That eye discipline
and their inability to stop the run in you know,
at the line of scrimmage has really forced them into
over committing towards run fakes, play action, fail, that kind
of thing, and it has really come back to buy
(05:01):
them a couple of times. So that's what I would
say as well. You have to trust that the point
of attack is going to take care of itself. You've
still got a responsibility until that ball clears the line
of scrimmage to make sure it's not coming around the
other side. So that's another thing there.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
I like discipline as an answer. That wasn't one. That
was one that I had not thought of. And you're
right though, when you're deficient at something, you try extra
hard to be better at it, right and opponents, good
opponents take advantage of your over aggressiveness or your over
pursuit and hit you a different way. I was going
to say pass rush because I think it's tied in
(05:39):
with the run defense and the problems that lie there.
They're not getting with the exception probably of Miami. Many
teams in long down and distant situations for the pass
rush to be productive because their run defense has been
so poor and so you don't even get into situations
where you can let your pass rush go hunt. Not
(06:01):
to mention the fact that in many of these most
recent in the last two games, the Bill's offense hasn't
even pulled away from the opponent relatively early in a
game where that opponent has to now throw almost exclusively
and your pass rush can feast. So they've pulled away
(06:22):
late in the last two games, but not enough to
let your pass rush.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Be prolifics evident too late in the game against the
Saints that they started getting They got a couple of
sacks on the last drive, the last couple of drives
because they knew that the Saints had to air it out,
and they use it to their advantage.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Third thing, how much do we think is fair to
expect in terms of improvement for this defensive unit in
some of the aforementioned areas When Ed Oliver and Matt
Muller Matt Mulano returned to the lineup, it could happen
as soon as their Week five matchup.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
It will make difference. Good players make you better. You know,
better players make you better. Ed Oliver is a really
good pass rusher. He's an established guy. Milana is an
instinctive guy that can really run and he sees things
before they happen, you know. He has that Clair voice,
and with his film study and his experience, he seems
(07:19):
to be out ahead of it mentally and makes plays
nobody else does because he has seen it coming and
feels it with his instincts. So, yeah, those guys are
going to make a difference. I think they'll make a
difference in every area. I think Milana is an excellent
blitzer from the second level. They use him extremely well.
And you're talking about difference makers. You're talking about less
than a handful of plays every game that would make
(07:41):
a difference defensively for this club. Even if all those
handful of plays, let the say there's three of them
and they get them and they're all on third down.
That changes the entire complexion of the game. It's three
punts that you're gonna get and three extra possessions for
your offense, or at least quicker possessions to get, and
that makes all the difference in the world when you've
got the offense that the Bills do. So, yes, those
(08:03):
two guys, if they make literally three plays in the game,
if they're at the right moments, Yeah, that's it turns
a close game, maybe even a close loss of a game,
into a win and an easy win with those three plays.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Yeah. I believe Man Milano is the most instinctive run
defender on the team, and that's with a guy as
instinctive as Terrell Bernard is. Those two guys together, I
think the run defense gets noticeably better when they're both
on the field simultaneously. So hopefully Milano is on the
way back in Oliver as well. Both were returning to
(08:40):
practice this week. How much stock should Bills fans put
in the additions of Michael Hoyd and Larry Ogan Jobi
when they return to play in Week eight at Carolina.
How much of a shot in the arm is realistic
to expect.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
I think it's realistic to expect Hoyt to be out
there in some crucial situations. I think, don't forget they
knew Hoyt was gonna be suspended and signed him to
a three year deal. Anyway, they have big plans for him.
I still think. I still think they're going to try
and see those plans through. Ogunjobi wasn't quite that much
(09:20):
of a priority in the offseason, but he's still had
an established, very experienced, gritty player down inside. He'll help.
But yeah, I think you can see your way to
that scenario of Michael Hoyt being out there. He's gonna
contribute and they're gonna use him in a number of
different ways because of the kind of player he is.
(09:41):
His versatility gives the gives Bobby Babbage, Sean McDermott, all
those guys a chance to move him around and really
wreak havoc with what a quarterback sees pre snap. All
of that stuff is in the mix. So yeah, I
think it is fair to expect Mike Hoyt to have
a lot of opportunities when he gets back and right
in the lineup.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
Yeah, and look, we only have the preseason to go
off of, but he was a menace. He got a
lot of time in the preseason. Granted not always against
true NFL starters, he was a menace in those preseason games.
He got a lot of playing time because they knew
he wasn't going to play the first six games of
the season, they were trying to build up his game shape, conditioning,
(10:25):
so to speak, as best they could, knowing there was
going to be a layoff thereafter. And guy was playing
forty to fifty snaps and you noticed him like he
was making an impact, particularly in the pass rush. And yes,
he is going to be a versatile chess piece because
he used to be a heavier player and played down inside.
So if you want to kick him inside in obvious
(10:47):
pass rushing situations and line him up to next next
to at Oliver, you can do that. If you want
him to stand up on the edge outside of Bosa
or Rousseau, you could do that as well. So there
are a multitude of that he can provide that provide
an enormous number of different looks that you can throw
at defense. Is second half of the season that they
(11:09):
haven't seen on film yet. That's the thing that's enticing
for me. Last, and perhaps of greatest interest to Bill's fans.
Can Max Harrison be counted on to at least be
a contributor on defense in the second half of the season.
This is a bit of a projection because we don't
know what his prognosis is in terms of getting back.
(11:30):
He's still on ir not practicing with the team yet,
and his twenty one day window hasn't been opened yet either.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
I have taken Max Harrison off my menu just for
the fact that I don't want to raise expectations and
have him come back and think what and get my
expectations up. Sean McDermott, when he has spoken about Max Harrison,
has really pumped the brakes on expectations. I think they
are very willing to let him come along at his
own pace. I don't think they have any expectations attached
(11:59):
to them. I think Dorian Strong's immergence and his slowly
but surely his development of you and I have seen.
I have higher hopes for Dorian Strong than I do
Max Harrison this season. Now long term, Max Harrison, I
think and I have expectation that he's going to be
a starting a one corner in the NFL. But this
year I'm not pushing that on him at all, and
(12:21):
I'm not putting it all myself to say, hey, he's
got to be that guy.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
I'm not.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
They are going to be and I hate to say
it like this, but they're going to be good enough
without him, They're gonna feel good enough about their depth
and their people and their way to move forward with
the guys they have. Anything Max Harrison can give them
will be gravy, absolutely, And I don't think he's going
to be a non participant for the entire year. But
I am very willing to just wait until even you know,
(12:50):
November to even start thinking about whether he can actually
start taking a series here or there, or get on
the field or be even active for a game. I'm
I'm happy at the moment just to take him off
my menu and just wait to see what happens.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
I want to be the optimist here, and in my mind,
I go back to Brandon bean in what he says
all the time, which is anywhere and anytime in the
season that we believe we can upgrade our team, we're
going to do that. And I believe a healthy Max Harston,
(13:27):
provided he's up to speed on everything that's going on
within the scheme, can be an upgrade for that cornerback contingent.
I think he's the most physically gifted in the entire
group from a speed perspective, clearly, and there are other
areas catch up speed those kinds of things and his
(13:47):
plant and drive and his hip flip transition. It's some
of the best we have seen in a Bill's uniform
in quite some time. If he is on the ball
in terms of assignment, alignment and recognizing things pre I
think they have to find a way to put him
on the field. And I'm not saying full time. Maybe
(14:07):
you do it similar to the way we see Dorian
Strong taking some snaps away from Tredavious White the last
week or so, where it's a series here and he
spells him for a series here in the second quarter.
I'm hoping we can get to that point with Harston,
and who knows, if he plays well in those spots,
maybe he gets even more time and maybe by the postseason,
(14:32):
you know, you play against a throwing team that will
occasionally go three and four wide Kansas City Chiefs. We
can put him on the field and he can lock
somebody down like that is in my mind's eye, the
optimist's view of what they can hopefully get from Harston
before this season and the postseason is out Let's transition
(14:54):
to the Numbers game, where Steve will be quizzed on
Bill's Patriots history. For though we five storm Front cold front,
white out matchup. Got a whole bunch of names. I
can't keep track of them all. Question number one since
twenty twenty three, Steve, where do you think James Cook
(15:14):
ranks in rushing yards against the New England Patriots among
running backs in the league.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Since twenty twenty three?
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Three yards percure? What are we talking about? Was total
rushing yards against to the Patriots?
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Gotta be number one?
Speaker 1 (15:32):
He is not number one, really, he is.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Not one of the what Dolphin or Jet is Breese
Hall or somebody?
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Breese Hall is number one? Yeah, that doesn't count for
a point. Unforture.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
He's got a it was he too.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
He is number three. Raheem Moster second, who is a
former Dolphin and then played the Patriots this year as
a Las Vegas Raider. So Cook is third with two
hundred and thirty two rushing yards in his last three
games against the Patriots. Question two, what would you guess
is Josh Allen's completion percentage in his last three games
(16:09):
against the Patriots.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
I'll give you a range.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
I mean I'm not going to Yeah, give me a range.
I'll take that.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
How big a range can I give you?
Speaker 1 (16:18):
Like? Five percent or five percent. I think is fair.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
I think it's between sixty five and seventy.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
It is lower.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
You have sixty sixty five, then it's lower. Really fifty
eight percent, it is.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
Fifty eight percent. He is fifty eight for one hundred
for five hundred eighty eight yards, three touchdowns and three picks.
He has struggled passer rating over the last three seventy
two point four. I was stunned by that absolute the
last study.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
That means two.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
We're not counting the throwaway game last year when he
came on the field for a snap because there were
no stats there anyway.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
That would be two in Buffalo and one.
Speaker 3 (16:57):
In Yeah, stunning, wow before them question question three, what
Bill's player has the most sacks against the Patriots since
twenty twenty three?
Speaker 1 (17:11):
You had to pick a player that has the most
sacks against the Patriots? Who would it be? And it's
it's not a lot. The total is two sacks, Gregus.
It is not Greg Russ.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
Day one.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
It is not da one.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
All right, I'm gonna keep going. You keep going, head nod.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
Yeah, jeez, it is Terrell Bernard two sacks. Uh wow, Yeah,
I know. I was trying to go recent history, because
I figured it'd be fresh in your mind. Although some
of these the Joshua was a Chris's question.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
In a Rotten mind.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
He question around my question for what Bills players. What
Bill's player has the most tackles for loss against the
Patriots since twenty twenty three? Christian Benford, He is not
(18:12):
Christian Vanford.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
That was a great guest.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
Tackles for a loss.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
Now, Dorian Strong, No, Dorian.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
Williams, It's neither Dorian Okay, since twenty twenty three, this
person has four tackles for loss against the Patriots. No,
it's not ed, and it's tied for the league lead
most tackles for loss against the Patriots since twenty twenty three. Rousseau, No,
good grief. It's it's once again to rel Bernard with four.
(18:45):
All right, So there you go a little bit of
tough sledding in the numbers game. But we'll rebound here.
That was a wow, and we'll tell you Bill's fans.
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(19:06):
winnings fast, make every moment more with FanDuel Official sportsbook
partner of the Buffalo Bills. Time now for our one
burning Question. We've made it through a month of the season.
We know a bit more about the teams in the AFC.
Some have surprised, like the Cults, some have disappointed, like Cincinnati.
These question the question we pose is who should the
(19:29):
Bills be worried about in this AFC race? And pick
two or three teams that are at the top of
your list, Steve, teams for the Bills to be worried
about based on what you observed through the first month
of the season.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
There's more than three, but more than three. Yeah, Kansas City,
of course. Baltimore's not dead, although Lamar's injury really and
their hole that they're in one to three is really
a problem.
Speaker 1 (19:55):
They're on life support.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
They if they lose the next two games, which I
don't think. I'm not necessarily saying they will. I think
they'll beat Houston this week with John Harbaugh playing quarterback.
I don't think I think they're going to struggle against
the Rams, but I'm not going to count them out.
Their defense is a problem. Their injuries are a problem.
All that stuff's going on. But man, when they're on,
(20:18):
they are tough to beat. But now I think the
whole might be a little too deep, particularly in their division.
That said, Kansas City Denver is real. I'm not a
believer in Indianapolis yet. I'll wait, and I think the
LA Chargers might be for real. I think the Chargers
in Denver, in that division with Kansas City, I think
(20:40):
it's the entire AFC West. Those three teams may all
be in the play.
Speaker 1 (20:43):
I was just going to ask you, do you think
all three make the postseason?
Speaker 2 (20:45):
They all might make the postseason. I'm the AFC West.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
They're not going to beat each other up enough to
damage somebody's record to the point where they got.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
With Jacksonville and Indianapolis and Houston and the other division
and the AFC North will beat each other up. See
that too many times. Cincinnati and Baltimore are a dumpster
fire right now. Pittsburgh is gonna you know, they're going
to win that division. So I think the AFC West
because of the condition of the other I don't think
Jacksonville and Indianapolis are of the same caliber as the
(21:17):
Chargers and Denver. So I'm going to say the entire
AFC West.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
Okay, I have Kansas City except the Raiders. Except the Raiders.
I have Kansas City, and I have Denver as well.
I think Denver is going to be a problem. Their
defense is really, really good, and we know that defense
travels in the playoffs. It didn't here last year. They
(21:42):
got waxed. But I think that was a team that
just wasn't ready for the moment.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
It was ten to seven at halftime, right, Denver.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
Led right, and then they ran off and left, and.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
Then it was thirty to ten.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
I just don't think they were ready for postseason football.
That team had not been to the playoffs in several years.
They didn't have a lot of guys as we playoff
experience that I just don't think they were ready for
the moment. I think they're hungry now and could be
a dangerous team. And they've got young players that are
stepping into larger roles there and entering the prime of
(22:15):
their careers, so that could be a problem. They got
to figure out how to run the football though that's
Denver's issue right now. They can figure that out, they
could be a very dangerous team. I mentioned Kansas City.
We don't need to get into that. I am a
believer in Indianapolis. Here's my comp for Indianapolis, Steve, and
(22:36):
I'm not saying they're going to finish with the same
regular season record, but to me, Indianapolis seems very similar
to the Minnesota Vikings last year. They get a quarterback
off the scrap heap and they make them look like
an All Star. And there is I believe an underrated
amount of talent at the skill positions on the Indianapolis Colts.
(23:00):
You look at Michael Pittman outside, Josh Downs in the slot,
Alec Pearce is their deep threat, and then Jonathan Taylor
is still an All World back. He's leading the league
in rushing right now. I mean, everybody's going nuts about
jon Robinson. Last I checked, Jonathan Taylor's leading the league
in rushing yards. So Daniel Jones just has to be
a facilitator. And their defense has played well. They have
(23:24):
a real pass rush, and they're playing in a weak
division with Houston Weeks continuing to spin their wheels. And yes,
and they have a week schedule.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
So they've played Miami, They've played Tennessee, they got thumped
by the Rams. They beat the Broncos at home by
one point. They play the Raiders, the Cardinals, coming up,
the Titans again, they play the Steelers and the Falcons.
Here's what's gonna happen. Let me just prognosticate. They're gonna
get beat by the Chargers. They're gonna get beat by
(23:54):
the Steelers. They're gonna get beat by Kansas City. They're
gonna get waxed by San Francisco and Seattle. They're gonna
be this year's version of the Miami Dolphins. They're gonna
they're gonna run it up on weaker teams, which they've
got a bunch of. Yeah, and they're gonna get punched
in the mouth by a good football team when they
meet them.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:14):
I think they're gonna have a good enough record, though,
to win that division go to the playoffs. I agree.
And the concern that I harbor about that team if
you have to face them is Jonathan Taylor. That's the problem.
The Bills have work to do, as we've talked about
on this entire podcast about fixing their run defense. It's
got to be ready to roll in the playoffs because
you're gonna see guys like that dude who had a
(24:38):
heck of a day against the Bills a few years ago,
to the tune of five touchdowns.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
I'm not yeah, that's right. I'm not saying it can't happen.
It might, but they've got a long way to go
to convince me.
Speaker 1 (24:47):
Okay, well that's fair.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
I'm not Daniel. I've I've seen too much of Daniel Jones. Yeah,
I mean, sooner or later, he's gonna remember he's Daniel Jones,
like Turn Donald, like Sam Donald remembered who he was
last year.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
Last year. That's why I used them as a cop,
because they pull the quarterback off the scrap heap. They've
made him extraordinarily productive. They'll probably they're bush for the
division titles, and they're playing a soft schedule, so they'll
get a lot of wins, they'll make the playoffs, and
then he'll gobble.
Speaker 2 (25:18):
They're gonna be five and one, because they're three and
one right now, and they got the Raiders and the
Cardinals coming up.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
But it's it's that it's Jonathan Taylor that's the concern
for me. Our closing figure deals with putting points on
the board early in games. Thus far, this season, the
Bills have scored on their opening possession in every game.
They're the only team to do so in twenty twenty
five and the first team to do it in their
first four games since the two thousand season. I can't
(25:44):
believe it's been that rare.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
It's hard.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
The Bills have done it. And the Bills are averaging
a league leading nine and a half points per game
in the first quarter, and they rank second in yards
per play in the first quarter with a mark of
seven point six. They'll need to get off to a
similar fast start against the Patriots. That's all for us
in this edition. Make sure you subscribe on whatever podcast
platform you choose, or on the Bills YouTube channel where
(26:09):
you can watch us as well, because when you need
to know about the Bills, you need to check Bills
by the Numbers. Re Steve Tasker, I'm Chris Brown. We'll
catch you next time. Thanks for listening, everybody,
Good to see you. Happy to have you along with
us for Bills by the Numbers, where we let the
stats tell you where the Bills are at. We're presented
by Fandue'll make every moment more. Coming up, a deeper
look at Buffalo's defense. What's fixable and what's top priority?
How much should be expected to improve when Matt Mulano
and Ed Oliver return from injury, and what kind of
(00:21):
bump can Michael Hoyd and Larry ogun Joby provide? And
can Max Hairstep be a contributor down the stretch. A
lot of ground to cover, so let's get after it now.
(00:44):
Thanks for joining. He's Bill's Wall of Famer Steve Pasker
on Bills play by playman Chris Brown, and we begin
this episode with a look at what's ailing the Bills defense. First,
I think we can all agree that Buffalo's defense has
been clutch when needed most through the first month of
the season, much like last year. Many of those clutch
plays have been takeaways at Oliver in Week one, forcing
(01:07):
the Derrick Henry fumble to beat Baltimore, the strip sack
forced fumble by Joey Bosa in Week two with the Jets,
the Terrell Bernard interception in the fourth quarter against Miami
in Week three and the Cole Bishop interception at the
two yard line in Week four. Much like last year,
takeaways have carried the day for Buffalo's defense, and as
(01:27):
coach McDermott says, the ball is the thing, and he's right,
but here there are fundamental elements to good defensive football
that's missing from this Bill's unit right now as we
begin these three things, what do you see, Steve as
in need of fixing.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
First, I think they've got to start winning the line
of scrimmage a little better. Their DAP integrity is suffered
because of it. You get guys pushed out and there's
just too much space in there. I think they've really
struggled to hold the line of scrimmage up front. In
the run game. Certainly, the Baltimore Ravens are a different animal.
(02:08):
They can throw fifteen hundred pounds of blockers and ball
carrier at any gap in the front, and that's a
hard thing to hold up to. But you know, they've
been getting gashed in the run game and the regularity
of that is troubling.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Right, And look, run defense is rooted in sound fundamental
tackling and the gap assignments. As you mentioned, and we
discussed this on the Daily Show a little bit too,
that the first four weeks of the regular season have
almost become the new preseason because nobody's tackling. No starters
are playing in the three game preseason anymore. Your amount
(02:49):
of padded practices are at the lowest number they've ever
been since the twenty eleven CBA was signed and practice
time was reduced precipitously, and so guys playing at full
speed and tackling with good fundamental technique has to be
almost relearned through the first few games of the season.
And I guess there's a part of me that's hoping
(03:11):
that's one of the biggest reasons why there's.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Certainly an adjustment period every season where these guys get
back and said, oh, yeah, I remember how I kind
of do this and do that, and and the techniques
and fundamentals you can say, well, they're fundamental. No, they've changed.
Over the course of the evolution of the NFL. They
have changed. Players are not allowed to play defense or
tackle in the same way and use the same techniques
(03:35):
they have used in the past. Now Tackling is still crucial,
but you can't tackle the way you used to tackle.
And the emphasis has shifted and the Bills are a
perfect example of this. The emphasis has shifted from yardage
to possession. It's not about stopping them for it. They'll
give defenses these days, will give you yards for Christmas,
(03:57):
but they want the ball. They're going to get the ball.
And that's what has changed fundamentally in the NFL and
what their defensive mindset.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
And that's what coach McDermott emphasizes, right. He's even said,
you as a coach, you get what you emphasize, and
they emphasize the ball being the thing. Our second thing
is do you have a second area you want to
see have? Yeah, more consistency on the defensive side of.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
One of the things that the Bills are getting nicked,
and you saw it in large measure against the Saints
this last weekend is eye discipline. They're getting caught up
because they have struggled in stopping the run. I think
they are diving in. They are going for first thing
and misdirection has squashed them. It's it really reared its
head in the in the Saints game. The backside where
(04:41):
you know they're trying to crash down on the backside
and they and the quarterback gets around the end or
an end, a round gets around them. That eye discipline
and their inability to stop the run in you know,
at the line of scrimmage has really forced them into
over committing towards run fakes, play action, fail, that kind
of thing, and it has really come back to buy
(05:01):
them a couple of times. So that's what I would
say as well. You have to trust that the point
of attack is going to take care of itself. You've
still got a responsibility until that ball clears the line
of scrimmage to make sure it's not coming around the
other side. So that's another thing there.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
I like discipline as an answer. That wasn't one. That
was one that I had not thought of. And you're
right though, when you're deficient at something, you try extra
hard to be better at it, right and opponents, good
opponents take advantage of your over aggressiveness or your over
pursuit and hit you a different way. I was going
to say pass rush because I think it's tied in
(05:39):
with the run defense and the problems that lie there.
They're not getting with the exception probably of Miami. Many
teams in long down and distant situations for the pass
rush to be productive because their run defense has been
so poor and so you don't even get into situations
where you can let your pass rush go hunt. Not
(06:01):
to mention the fact that in many of these most
recent in the last two games, the Bill's offense hasn't
even pulled away from the opponent relatively early in a
game where that opponent has to now throw almost exclusively
and your pass rush can feast. So they've pulled away
(06:22):
late in the last two games, but not enough to
let your pass rush.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Be prolifics evident too late in the game against the
Saints that they started getting They got a couple of
sacks on the last drive, the last couple of drives
because they knew that the Saints had to air it out,
and they use it to their advantage.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Third thing, how much do we think is fair to
expect in terms of improvement for this defensive unit in
some of the aforementioned areas When Ed Oliver and Matt
Muller Matt Mulano returned to the lineup, it could happen
as soon as their Week five matchup.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
It will make difference. Good players make you better. You know,
better players make you better. Ed Oliver is a really
good pass rusher. He's an established guy. Milana is an
instinctive guy that can really run and he sees things
before they happen, you know. He has that Clair voice,
and with his film study and his experience, he seems
(07:19):
to be out ahead of it mentally and makes plays
nobody else does because he has seen it coming and
feels it with his instincts. So, yeah, those guys are
going to make a difference. I think they'll make a
difference in every area. I think Milana is an excellent
blitzer from the second level. They use him extremely well.
And you're talking about difference makers. You're talking about less
than a handful of plays every game that would make
(07:41):
a difference defensively for this club. Even if all those
handful of plays, let the say there's three of them
and they get them and they're all on third down.
That changes the entire complexion of the game. It's three
punts that you're gonna get and three extra possessions for
your offense, or at least quicker possessions to get, and
that makes all the difference in the world when you've
got the offense that the Bills do. So, yes, those
(08:03):
two guys, if they make literally three plays in the game,
if they're at the right moments, Yeah, that's it turns
a close game, maybe even a close loss of a game,
into a win and an easy win with those three plays.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Yeah. I believe Man Milano is the most instinctive run
defender on the team, and that's with a guy as
instinctive as Terrell Bernard is. Those two guys together, I
think the run defense gets noticeably better when they're both
on the field simultaneously. So hopefully Milano is on the
way back in Oliver as well. Both were returning to
(08:40):
practice this week. How much stock should Bills fans put
in the additions of Michael Hoyd and Larry Ogan Jobi
when they return to play in Week eight at Carolina.
How much of a shot in the arm is realistic
to expect.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
I think it's realistic to expect Hoyt to be out
there in some crucial situations. I think, don't forget they
knew Hoyt was gonna be suspended and signed him to
a three year deal. Anyway, they have big plans for him.
I still think. I still think they're going to try
and see those plans through. Ogunjobi wasn't quite that much
(09:20):
of a priority in the offseason, but he's still had
an established, very experienced, gritty player down inside. He'll help.
But yeah, I think you can see your way to
that scenario of Michael Hoyt being out there. He's gonna
contribute and they're gonna use him in a number of
different ways because of the kind of player he is.
(09:41):
His versatility gives the gives Bobby Babbage, Sean McDermott, all
those guys a chance to move him around and really
wreak havoc with what a quarterback sees pre snap. All
of that stuff is in the mix. So yeah, I
think it is fair to expect Mike Hoyt to have
a lot of opportunities when he gets back and right
in the lineup.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
Yeah, and look, we only have the preseason to go
off of, but he was a menace. He got a
lot of time in the preseason. Granted not always against
true NFL starters, he was a menace in those preseason games.
He got a lot of playing time because they knew
he wasn't going to play the first six games of
the season, they were trying to build up his game shape, conditioning,
(10:25):
so to speak, as best they could, knowing there was
going to be a layoff thereafter. And guy was playing
forty to fifty snaps and you noticed him like he
was making an impact, particularly in the pass rush. And yes,
he is going to be a versatile chess piece because
he used to be a heavier player and played down inside.
So if you want to kick him inside in obvious
(10:47):
pass rushing situations and line him up to next next
to at Oliver, you can do that. If you want
him to stand up on the edge outside of Bosa
or Rousseau, you could do that as well. So there
are a multitude of that he can provide that provide
an enormous number of different looks that you can throw
at defense. Is second half of the season that they
(11:09):
haven't seen on film yet. That's the thing that's enticing
for me. Last, and perhaps of greatest interest to Bill's fans.
Can Max Harrison be counted on to at least be
a contributor on defense in the second half of the season.
This is a bit of a projection because we don't
know what his prognosis is in terms of getting back.
(11:30):
He's still on ir not practicing with the team yet,
and his twenty one day window hasn't been opened yet either.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
I have taken Max Harrison off my menu just for
the fact that I don't want to raise expectations and
have him come back and think what and get my
expectations up. Sean McDermott, when he has spoken about Max Harrison,
has really pumped the brakes on expectations. I think they
are very willing to let him come along at his
own pace. I don't think they have any expectations attached
(11:59):
to them. I think Dorian Strong's immergence and his slowly
but surely his development of you and I have seen.
I have higher hopes for Dorian Strong than I do
Max Harrison this season. Now long term, Max Harrison, I
think and I have expectation that he's going to be
a starting a one corner in the NFL. But this
year I'm not pushing that on him at all, and
(12:21):
I'm not putting it all myself to say, hey, he's
got to be that guy.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
I'm not.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
They are going to be and I hate to say
it like this, but they're going to be good enough
without him, They're gonna feel good enough about their depth
and their people and their way to move forward with
the guys they have. Anything Max Harrison can give them
will be gravy, absolutely, And I don't think he's going
to be a non participant for the entire year. But
I am very willing to just wait until even you know,
(12:50):
November to even start thinking about whether he can actually
start taking a series here or there, or get on
the field or be even active for a game. I'm
I'm happy at the moment just to take him off
my menu and just wait to see what happens.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
I want to be the optimist here, and in my mind,
I go back to Brandon bean in what he says
all the time, which is anywhere and anytime in the
season that we believe we can upgrade our team, we're
going to do that. And I believe a healthy Max Harston,
(13:27):
provided he's up to speed on everything that's going on
within the scheme, can be an upgrade for that cornerback contingent.
I think he's the most physically gifted in the entire
group from a speed perspective, clearly, and there are other
areas catch up speed those kinds of things and his
(13:47):
plant and drive and his hip flip transition. It's some
of the best we have seen in a Bill's uniform
in quite some time. If he is on the ball
in terms of assignment, alignment and recognizing things pre I
think they have to find a way to put him
on the field. And I'm not saying full time. Maybe
(14:07):
you do it similar to the way we see Dorian
Strong taking some snaps away from Tredavious White the last
week or so, where it's a series here and he
spells him for a series here in the second quarter.
I'm hoping we can get to that point with Harston,
and who knows, if he plays well in those spots,
maybe he gets even more time and maybe by the postseason,
(14:32):
you know, you play against a throwing team that will
occasionally go three and four wide Kansas City Chiefs. We
can put him on the field and he can lock
somebody down like that is in my mind's eye, the
optimist's view of what they can hopefully get from Harston
before this season and the postseason is out Let's transition
(14:54):
to the Numbers game, where Steve will be quizzed on
Bill's Patriots history. For though we five storm Front cold front,
white out matchup. Got a whole bunch of names. I
can't keep track of them all. Question number one since
twenty twenty three, Steve, where do you think James Cook
(15:14):
ranks in rushing yards against the New England Patriots among
running backs in the league.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Since twenty twenty three?
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Three yards percure? What are we talking about? Was total
rushing yards against to the Patriots?
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Gotta be number one?
Speaker 1 (15:32):
He is not number one, really, he is.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Not one of the what Dolphin or Jet is Breese
Hall or somebody?
Speaker 1 (15:37):
Breese Hall is number one? Yeah, that doesn't count for
a point. Unforture.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
He's got a it was he too.
Speaker 1 (15:44):
He is number three. Raheem Moster second, who is a
former Dolphin and then played the Patriots this year as
a Las Vegas Raider. So Cook is third with two
hundred and thirty two rushing yards in his last three
games against the Patriots. Question two, what would you guess
is Josh Allen's completion percentage in his last three games
(16:09):
against the Patriots.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
I'll give you a range.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
I mean I'm not going to Yeah, give me a range.
I'll take that.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
How big a range can I give you?
Speaker 1 (16:18):
Like? Five percent or five percent. I think is fair.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
I think it's between sixty five and seventy.
Speaker 1 (16:23):
It is lower.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
You have sixty sixty five, then it's lower. Really fifty
eight percent, it is.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
Fifty eight percent. He is fifty eight for one hundred
for five hundred eighty eight yards, three touchdowns and three picks.
He has struggled passer rating over the last three seventy
two point four. I was stunned by that absolute the
last study.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
That means two.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
We're not counting the throwaway game last year when he
came on the field for a snap because there were
no stats there anyway.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
That would be two in Buffalo and one.
Speaker 3 (16:57):
In Yeah, stunning, wow before them question question three, what
Bill's player has the most sacks against the Patriots since
twenty twenty three?
Speaker 1 (17:11):
You had to pick a player that has the most
sacks against the Patriots? Who would it be? And it's
it's not a lot. The total is two sacks, Gregus.
It is not Greg Russ.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
Day one.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
It is not da one.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
All right, I'm gonna keep going. You keep going, head nod.
Speaker 1 (17:31):
Yeah, jeez, it is Terrell Bernard two sacks. Uh wow, Yeah,
I know. I was trying to go recent history, because
I figured it'd be fresh in your mind. Although some
of these the Joshua was a Chris's question.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
In a Rotten mind.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
He question around my question for what Bills players. What
Bill's player has the most tackles for loss against the
Patriots since twenty twenty three? Christian Benford, He is not
(18:12):
Christian Vanford.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
That was a great guest.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
Tackles for a loss.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
Now, Dorian Strong, No, Dorian.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
Williams, It's neither Dorian Okay, since twenty twenty three, this
person has four tackles for loss against the Patriots. No,
it's not ed, and it's tied for the league lead
most tackles for loss against the Patriots since twenty twenty three. Rousseau, No,
good grief. It's it's once again to rel Bernard with four.
(18:45):
All right, So there you go a little bit of
tough sledding in the numbers game. But we'll rebound here.
That was a wow, and we'll tell you Bill's fans.
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(19:06):
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partner of the Buffalo Bills. Time now for our one
burning Question. We've made it through a month of the season.
We know a bit more about the teams in the AFC.
Some have surprised, like the Cults, some have disappointed, like Cincinnati.
These question the question we pose is who should the
(19:29):
Bills be worried about in this AFC race? And pick
two or three teams that are at the top of
your list, Steve, teams for the Bills to be worried
about based on what you observed through the first month
of the season.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
There's more than three, but more than three. Yeah, Kansas City,
of course. Baltimore's not dead, although Lamar's injury really and
their hole that they're in one to three is really
a problem.
Speaker 1 (19:55):
They're on life support.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
They if they lose the next two games, which I
don't think. I'm not necessarily saying they will. I think
they'll beat Houston this week with John Harbaugh playing quarterback.
I don't think I think they're going to struggle against
the Rams, but I'm not going to count them out.
Their defense is a problem. Their injuries are a problem.
All that stuff's going on. But man, when they're on,
(20:18):
they are tough to beat. But now I think the
whole might be a little too deep, particularly in their division.
That said, Kansas City Denver is real. I'm not a
believer in Indianapolis yet. I'll wait, and I think the
LA Chargers might be for real. I think the Chargers
in Denver, in that division with Kansas City, I think
(20:40):
it's the entire AFC West. Those three teams may all
be in the play.
Speaker 1 (20:43):
I was just going to ask you, do you think
all three make the postseason?
Speaker 2 (20:45):
They all might make the postseason. I'm the AFC West.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
They're not going to beat each other up enough to
damage somebody's record to the point where they got.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
With Jacksonville and Indianapolis and Houston and the other division
and the AFC North will beat each other up. See
that too many times. Cincinnati and Baltimore are a dumpster
fire right now. Pittsburgh is gonna you know, they're going
to win that division. So I think the AFC West
because of the condition of the other I don't think
Jacksonville and Indianapolis are of the same caliber as the
(21:17):
Chargers and Denver. So I'm going to say the entire
AFC West.
Speaker 1 (21:21):
Okay, I have Kansas City except the Raiders. Except the Raiders.
I have Kansas City, and I have Denver as well.
I think Denver is going to be a problem. Their
defense is really, really good, and we know that defense
travels in the playoffs. It didn't here last year. They
(21:42):
got waxed. But I think that was a team that
just wasn't ready for the moment.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
It was ten to seven at halftime, right, Denver.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
Led right, and then they ran off and left, and.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
Then it was thirty to ten.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
I just don't think they were ready for postseason football.
That team had not been to the playoffs in several years.
They didn't have a lot of guys as we playoff
experience that I just don't think they were ready for
the moment. I think they're hungry now and could be
a dangerous team. And they've got young players that are
stepping into larger roles there and entering the prime of
(22:15):
their careers, so that could be a problem. They got
to figure out how to run the football though that's
Denver's issue right now. They can figure that out, they
could be a very dangerous team. I mentioned Kansas City.
We don't need to get into that. I am a
believer in Indianapolis. Here's my comp for Indianapolis, Steve, and
(22:36):
I'm not saying they're going to finish with the same
regular season record, but to me, Indianapolis seems very similar
to the Minnesota Vikings last year. They get a quarterback
off the scrap heap and they make them look like
an All Star. And there is I believe an underrated
amount of talent at the skill positions on the Indianapolis Colts.
(23:00):
You look at Michael Pittman outside, Josh Downs in the slot,
Alec Pearce is their deep threat, and then Jonathan Taylor
is still an All World back. He's leading the league
in rushing right now. I mean, everybody's going nuts about
jon Robinson. Last I checked, Jonathan Taylor's leading the league
in rushing yards. So Daniel Jones just has to be
a facilitator. And their defense has played well. They have
(23:24):
a real pass rush, and they're playing in a weak
division with Houston Weeks continuing to spin their wheels. And yes,
and they have a week schedule.
Speaker 2 (23:33):
So they've played Miami, They've played Tennessee, they got thumped
by the Rams. They beat the Broncos at home by
one point. They play the Raiders, the Cardinals, coming up,
the Titans again, they play the Steelers and the Falcons.
Here's what's gonna happen. Let me just prognosticate. They're gonna
get beat by the Chargers. They're gonna get beat by
(23:54):
the Steelers. They're gonna get beat by Kansas City. They're
gonna get waxed by San Francisco and Seattle. They're gonna
be this year's version of the Miami Dolphins. They're gonna
they're gonna run it up on weaker teams, which they've
got a bunch of. Yeah, and they're gonna get punched
in the mouth by a good football team when they
meet them.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:14):
I think they're gonna have a good enough record, though,
to win that division go to the playoffs. I agree.
And the concern that I harbor about that team if
you have to face them is Jonathan Taylor. That's the problem.
The Bills have work to do, as we've talked about
on this entire podcast about fixing their run defense. It's
got to be ready to roll in the playoffs because
you're gonna see guys like that dude who had a
(24:38):
heck of a day against the Bills a few years ago,
to the tune of five touchdowns.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
I'm not yeah, that's right. I'm not saying it can't happen.
It might, but they've got a long way to go
to convince me.
Speaker 1 (24:47):
Okay, well that's fair.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
I'm not Daniel. I've I've seen too much of Daniel Jones. Yeah,
I mean, sooner or later, he's gonna remember he's Daniel Jones,
like Turn Donald, like Sam Donald remembered who he was
last year.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
Last year. That's why I used them as a cop,
because they pull the quarterback off the scrap heap. They've
made him extraordinarily productive. They'll probably they're bush for the
division titles, and they're playing a soft schedule, so they'll
get a lot of wins, they'll make the playoffs, and
then he'll gobble.
Speaker 2 (25:18):
They're gonna be five and one, because they're three and
one right now, and they got the Raiders and the
Cardinals coming up.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
But it's it's that it's Jonathan Taylor that's the concern
for me. Our closing figure deals with putting points on
the board early in games. Thus far, this season, the
Bills have scored on their opening possession in every game.
They're the only team to do so in twenty twenty
five and the first team to do it in their
first four games since the two thousand season. I can't
(25:44):
believe it's been that rare.
Speaker 2 (25:45):
It's hard.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
The Bills have done it. And the Bills are averaging
a league leading nine and a half points per game
in the first quarter, and they rank second in yards
per play in the first quarter with a mark of
seven point six. They'll need to get off to a
similar fast start against the Patriots. That's all for us
in this edition. Make sure you subscribe on whatever podcast
platform you choose, or on the Bills YouTube channel where
(26:09):
you can watch us as well, because when you need
to know about the Bills, you need to check Bills
by the Numbers. Re Steve Tasker, I'm Chris Brown. We'll
catch you next time. Thanks for listening, everybody,
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