NFL Insider and CBS Sports analyst Jason La Canfora joins Matt Tabeek and shares his thoughts on the additions of Smith and Fontenot, discusses what is happening in the NFC South surrounding the NFL Draft, and more. 0:00 Intro 0:48 Topics 1:53 Rapid Fire 3:25 Surprising HC & GM Moves 5:40 Smith & Fontenot 12:51 Salary Cap 14:40 NFC South 23:11 Bold Predictions T
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
And welcome to the thirtieth Wow, thirtieth episode of Bird
Noises presented by Bows in Atlanta, Falcons podcast about football
and mostly everything else, or, as digital director Dan Gad says,
world likes to say, because falcons are birds, and birds
make noises. All right, Now that we've given some love
(00:21):
to the sponsor and Dan Gad, let's get to our
next guest. He is an NFL insider for CBS Sports
and a senior writer for CBS sports dot Com. Before that,
he was the Washington football team beat writer for the
Washington Post for six years, and he served as the
NFL Networks Insider Baltimore. Name can be seen every Sunday
(00:41):
during this season on the NFL Today. Jason Lockham for
my friend. We've got a lot of topics we're gonna
hit today, including Terry Fontne, Arthur Smith, the Falcons new
regime in place. What does Jason think of that pairing
and their short term and long term success. We're gonna
(01:02):
talk a little bit about the NFL Draft, what the
Falcons might do. We're gonna talk about some NFL rumors
and some things that could happen between now and Draft
Day around the league, including the falcons. But first, welcome
to bird noises. What's going on? You may hear some
dog noises. I'm being cooplicated by that. Hey, bird noises,
(01:26):
dog noises, but no thanks, thanks for having me. I'll
try to keep the dog noises to a minimum. And
we do get a lot of action in this tree
right behind me, so we may get we may get
some ambient sound bird noises as well. That's perfect. What
do you think of that named Jason noises? It works
for me, man, that's like it. Yeah, okay, who thumbs up?
(01:49):
Two wings up? There we go. All right. So just
to kind of figure out where your headspace is right
about now, I like to do a little rapid fire. Okay,
So I'm gonna say five words or phrases is and
you just tell me the first thing that comes to
your mind dangerous I know, I know. And so we
(02:09):
have you know, beeps and everything like that. So okay,
all right, Matt Ryan, I don't want to the first
thing I fucked in Mike in my head. Uh. All
things must end eventually. The new are coming NFL TV deal,
(02:36):
Oh straight cash for me? The Seaun Watson In twenty
twenty one, New beginnings. Wow, the NFC South, one of
these things is not like the other. I'll go with that. Um, well,
(03:02):
you know, I've only had a sip of my coffee,
bit out and need any analysis is good? Uh? The
Falcons at number four trade up down or stap up.
I think at the end of the day they stay put. Um, okay,
we just a rapid fire mode. I want to elaborate. Yeah, okay,
we're going all right, all right, good stuff. So Jason,
(03:26):
you've obviously fired or I've obviously followed. Jeez, all the
hirings and firings with the gms and coaches this offseason. Um,
before we get into the Falcons, which moves surprised you
the most? Could be GM or coach or both. You
don't have to you don't have to go deep in
the weeds over but we're there, just a couple of
(03:46):
head scratchers. The Texans UH search was bizarre by any standard.
You basically had a lot of money and apparent power
give even to a team president and a search firm,
and you basically had the owner doing a parallel search
(04:09):
on his own that involved one GM candidate and a
head coach who certainly at that time wasn't. They hired
a guy who neither search really was sort of originally
geared to get to and they obviously went to war
with their quarterback in the middle of it. That I mean,
David Culley getting this first opportunity to be a head
(04:32):
coach under those circumstances, coming off a year in which
the Ravens passing attacks, someone who lives in Baltimore was
under attack all year, and now he becomes a head
coach in those circumstances. I don't think many saw that coming,
including cal McNair in the Houston Texans themselves, but that's
how it ended up. All right, let's jump into the Falcons.
(04:56):
I thought maybe you might go up to Detroit and
start talk about kneecaps, but let's go they're delicious this
time of year. I hear. I think this is we're
now entering Pete Meek, Like, if you're a kneecap hunter,
this is your time. Let's tell him they're getting good.
They're actually taking an early spring just before the spring. Yeah,
(05:18):
that's unfortunate because they need to be in season in
the fall. Right. Um, Yeah, that's gonna be a problem.
One of many so Falcons. What do you think of
these two moves? What do you think of Terry Fontno
and Arthur Smith? You know, Arthur Smith was the one
candidate that was on everybody's list, Terry Fontno first time GM,
but kind of came up under Mickey Lewis. What do
(05:38):
you think of these two hires? Um? Look, I had
heard Terry Fonteno's name very very early in the process,
and I knew he's someone who they thought highly of.
But then I talked to a lot of people in
the know as well. Once the rule came into effect,
the you know, the adaptations to the running rule and
the idea of compensation, and there were a lot of
(05:58):
people in the league who fought that might give the
Falcons pause because, let's face it, I don't have to
tell you guys about the rivalry with the Saints and
the Saints being in salary cap hell and the Saints
needing additional draft picks more than ever, and the potential
we get two top picks over the next couple of years.
That's that's a thing like that's yeah, that's a that's
(06:21):
that's an unusual circumstance that would be germane to this
hypothetical or potential hire. That wouldn't matter as much to
a team that was hiring a coach from the other
coast and the other conference, for instance. Right, But obviously,
you know, their process led them to that conclusion, and
(06:41):
you know, to try to handicap these things, it is
impossible you know which ones are going to work, which
ones aren't going to work. Um, I will just say this,
they have their work kylet for them. You know. I
think this is a team that, um, you walk into
some situations and a lot of the dirty works already
(07:03):
been done. Right, They've already cut the cord with some
players who the battle of the heart verse the mind?
What is he now? What do I see him as
in my mind's eye? What is his compensation now? What
is his future compensation going to be? Is he ascending
or descending? Right? Sometimes you walk into situations where those
decisions have already been made by the previous regime before
(07:26):
they're let go. So I think this is you know,
this is a tricky little wicket that they're walking into
because to me, this is a team that didn't really
fully embrace what it was or where it was trending
for a while. And I always go back to my
econ one or one opportunity cost. What's not just the
(07:46):
move you make, but it's the potential ramifications of the
moves you didn't make, which right, they're now walking into
a situation where they have all these additional picks because
the fact's been trimmed and guys were traded while they
still had some value. Um, they don't have a great
cap situation. They don't have a treasure trove of picks
that some other teams do. So, Um, there's certainly a
(08:08):
lot of work to be done. Yeah, they've they've got
to get in compliance with the cap. They've got six
picks right now, Jace, and you know, probably a couple
compensatory picks. In a way, though, you gotta think, you know,
it's kind of a good thing that they get to
make those decisions with, you know, saying Matt Ryan and
Julio Jones and some of those, some of those moves,
(08:30):
because then it's you know, they can't say, well, we
would have done this or we would have done that. Um,
I guess you can look at it that way too,
right that they it's you know, they got the keys
and you could, um truly do it their way. Yeah, Yeah,
I guess, so, um, okay, I guess if you were
looking to get maximum compensation, you know, I think, yeah, well,
(08:56):
with Matt, you're not You're not gonna be able to
train that contract. I mean, that is what it is
at this point. And even with Julio, with the way
that contract set up down the road, you'd probably just
be inclined to keep him and see what he looks
like at age thirty three or whatever. But I mean,
I don't want to go too far down the rabbit hole. Well,
would these guys have even done the last extension, you
(09:17):
know what I mean? Or would that have been maybe
the time to trade him and you're drafting Ridley or whatever.
So yeah, I love they have an owner who understands
the situation. He knows they're not walking into a rebuild
that's already been sent up for them, and here's your
here's all your additional picks, and here's all your cap space,
and don't do whatever you want. I think they will
(09:39):
get that carte blanche blank check shoes the punt from
from Arthur blank at the appropriate time. But to me,
this is a team that still has some tearing down
to do before it really builds. Up when you think
about you know that we keep hearing about the short
term plan, long term plan for sustained success. You know,
obviously everybody that interviewed for these jobs have to come
(10:01):
in and present, hey, this is how we can win now,
this is how we win long term. Just you know,
you've covered the league so long. You know, even when
you have a situation like this, you can't predict. But
with the core players they have, you know, there's there
remains it remains be seen. You know what happens with
some other players like Alex Mack and and that kind
(10:23):
of thing. But do you think that the core is
there if they draft right, is there a chance that
they can, you know, especially with the expanded you know,
playoff format, sneak in and win enough games. And they've
been a seven or nine team two years. They lost
ten games last year by a score or lass. I mean,
(10:43):
you could, you are what you are, But is there
a chance that they can come in and compete and
possibly be competitive this first year in your mind? Realistically? Yeah,
I mean I guess it depends on how how you
define compete. Could they be playing games in December? Yeah,
that's what I mean. Have a ramification to be in
(11:06):
the mix for the extra wildcard spot. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
I mean I think a lot of teams are going
to be in that boat. Um, is this a team
that I think is poised to go on a run
of a bunch of division titles and started sending you know,
wildcard championship game, super Bowl? Not that it always works
(11:28):
that way anyway, but no, you know what I mean,
I I don't think so, but this is going to
be another unusual year. We don't know the all season
rules quite yet. Um, you know, fans, no fans, Will
that be the same across the board? Will it be
different based on you know, geography and local government, so
(11:49):
that there's a lot of variables. Um, but look, there's
in a league of that strives for parody. The field
of what constitute's parody has been expanded, you know, by
the additional game and by the additional playoff. Um. So yeah,
I mean sure, could they be in the hunt for
(12:11):
something in a wild clime? They could? Um, but I'll
just be fascinated to see the decisions they make and
how because there's there can be a lot of fools,
gold and that stuff, you know what I mean? So
like are you're chasing that and and and walking away
from opportunities to shed salary, to pick up a pick,
even if it's a lower pick, and really build for
(12:32):
the future, you know which it's hard to mind both
those both parts of that garden at once. And yeah,
because you don't want to be you don't want to
be selling the message that hey, we're kicking the can
down the road and you know we're you know, we're
not we're not trying to compete. But at the same time,
(12:53):
you want to be in a position for where you
can really build this thing. Yeah, like if if you're
around five hundred and some, he's peddling whatever, a guard
that you fix, an upgrade who's got one year left
on this contract, you know what I mean? Are you
trading third and fourth round picks to try to subsidize
you know, mediocrity and then parting with a you know
(13:17):
what I mean, an asset that could provide five four
years of extreme value on a rookie contract and maybe
play ten years you know, in the league. So you
know that where are they if they if they are
like to your theory in the hunt, in an expanded hunt,
are they you know what I mean, are they still
(13:37):
playing the long game or do you start playing the
short game? Right? Right? Right? Right? He's trying to give
him hope, Jason, He's trying to get him hope here.
I don't know the answer to those questions, but that
you know, if those will be little inflection points, you know,
when when roster cutdowns are happening and there's all these
dudes on the street, you know, which way are they going?
(14:00):
Trade deadline? Which where are they going? It's going to
be interesting too because there is no cap number set yet,
right we know we know what the minimum is going
to be, and so that's going to be really fascinating
too to see, like how many of these guys are
going to take like these one year prove it deals maybe,
and they're gonna pick, you know, where what situations are
(14:23):
going to be best for them where they can cash
in after a season. So I think the teams that
really do their work there could really benefit too. Yeah,
like you said, it's going to be fascinating to watch.
What are your thoughts on the NFC South again? Just
you know, there's so many unknowns. We don't know what
the Panthers are going to do at quarterback We don't
(14:45):
know what the Saints are going to do at quarterback.
We know what Brady just did, you know, with restructuring,
how do you see? What are your just general thoughts
about the NFC South right now? I think it's it's
Tampa and everybody else, you know, as we speak, Tom
Brady is working on a renegotiation slash extension that's going
(15:10):
to free up a lot of cap space for the
bucks they have, and he won't be the only guy
who probably ends up taking you know, less that he
could get if he played it out to the fullest
on the open market. Then what he's willing to take
in Tampa, you know, the gronk will be back, and
it'll be you know, a deal that everybody can live with.
(15:34):
A b will likely be back, and he's not breaking
the bank either. And there's a lot of teams that
wouldn't even bring them in no matter what. So his
market's alway right constricted, you know. And Don mckinsue seems
to really like Florida and the no state income tax,
and another year at eight million might be just right
for him. So I think that's a team that's in
(15:56):
keep it together mode. Yeah, for sure, they and they're
gonna partly they're gonna slap a tag on somebody, whether
it's Godwin or Shack Barrett. They may lose some people,
Lavante David, They may lose some people, but they've also
drafted pretty well recently. Yeah, and you know, they got
the growing pains out of the way. They know what
Brady is, he knows what they are. That's a good point.
(16:19):
They melted the scheme. There's some bird noises. It's trash day.
So here's here's the trash though. The Saints they're obviously
in transition. Everything cynical. Like we said at the beginning,
everything eventually has its end. Um, can they be better
(16:42):
with Jamis? And if if they keep Jamis? And I
think they will, you know, does this thing with Breeze
get a little messy if he decides he really wants
to come back? Um, you think there's any chance he
comes back? I don't think there's a market for Drew Brees, Yeah,
I don't. Um and moving really in New Orleans at
this point. But they're they've got to reimagine themselves. And
(17:08):
their credit card bills are due. Yeah, yeah, you know,
and we know Atlanta's in a transition, and the Panthers
are in the year two of a new regime, but
really year one from a front office standpoint, right, because
they let Marty Herny go in season and um, you know,
mix their front office up so that they're still a
(17:30):
rebuilding team. I mean, they're not in contending mode that
that owner will start spending big money on them this year.
I suspect, but that's not a team that even if
they get it to Shaun Watson, I mean, it would help,
But if they get Deshaun Watson, they're probably Robbie Peter
to pay Paul like Burns. See, if we want him
as part of the package Chan that's a really useful
(17:52):
hybrid defender. We want him and a bunch of first
round picks. So that was the rumor, right that they
wanted two ones and some defensive starters or something like that.
I thought, No, I mean, look, Tapper will be willing
to do a lot to get to Shaun Watson. Um,
I would not discount their chances. But again, you're you're
going to be stripping away a lot of assets. It's
(18:12):
not just gonna be pixed. It would be players too.
So that's why I think Tampa is trying to keep
a known commodity together, and I think they're gonna be
pretty successful doing that. Everybody else is in some degree
of you know, tear down or rebuild m interesting stuff there.
(18:32):
So when it comes to the cap and I'm not
gonna you know, well we kind of covered that, it's
gonna be really interesting to see what these teams do.
As far as like when the when the number is
actually set, are you hearing anything as far as when
we can expect it? Do you think it's going to
happen before Mark seventeen? Um? Probably, yeah, probably, but it
(18:55):
wouldn't absolutely positive. We have to. I mean, the thing
is like, do you know it's gonna you know, it's
gonna go up a bit eventually. What's that? I mean
you look at the deal last night, Dak Prescott. I
mean there, I know, we know the number is going
to be down this year, but beyond that, are they thinking, yeah,
they'll be growth? I mean, these TV new TV deals
(19:17):
will start kicking in, um, you know, other expanded revenue
streams whatever. You know, they've only stuck their toe in
the gambling pool in terms of sponsorships and you know,
as sports wagering becomes legal and more and more stakes
you're gonna have. They've already have some arenas where there's
brick and mortar sports books right there. Revenue streams look
(19:41):
like over time. Well, teams have their own gambling apps
as well. So yes, I think the arrow is trending.
And then you know, people are getting vaccinated for this
horrible virus and you know, hopefully the worst of that
is over. So yeah, there's a lot of economic trends
that are pointing up for the league. Yeah, and I
(20:02):
think a lot is made of the cap, probably too much,
like you know, if it ends up being one eighty
eight or one eighty five, right, you know what I mean? Like, Okay,
so maybe that costs you a swing tackle if you've
projected the wrong way and you've got a little less
than you thought. But so many of these contracts are
fungible anyway. You can create cap space where you want it.
(20:25):
If you're an owner who's willing to go cash over
tap and you think you're close to winning, whether it
comes in at one eighty five or one ninety two,
at the end of the day, macro level is not
a huge difference, you know, And again they all know
that it's going up in the future, so you can
structure deals so that, hey, in twenty twenty three, you're
(20:46):
gonna go to lump some payment of fifty million bucks.
It's fully guaranteed at the time assigning right now for
injury skill and cap. But we don't want to take
that cap. We want to delay that cap for a
couple of years. I mean, Patrick Mahomes did a deal
last year right where he's only making sixty million dollars
the first three years, and they got Chris Jones, right,
and they so where there's a will is he jack quick?
(21:10):
General thoughts on that deal last night that Prescott and
the Cowboys agreed to, I mean, no trade clause, no
more tagging. It's it's kind of fair player. That's kind
of like the perfect contract, right. He got everything he
wanted a year ago except more. Yeah, he got everything.
He got everything, like all the parameters that he wanted
(21:32):
a year ago, less than five years, no future tag.
He was willing to do that a year ago for
thirty three a year. He's now getting it all that
same stuff in a year where he got hurt, barely played,
and he's doing it at a price point of forty
versus thirty three. So the people trying to tell me
that this is a win winner that the Cowboy, I'm like, well, no,
(21:55):
they had this player the whole time. You could have
got him for twenty eighty years two years ago, you
could have got him for three a year eleven months ago.
And you're paying him forty while he's coming off a
season ending injury and your offensive lines getting worse and
the cap is not going to be what it was
supposed to be this year, and your defense still sticks. Well,
(22:15):
you couldn't, you couldn't really build a contender. Well, and
he's making three hundred thousand dollars a year, but yeah,
the CAP's going up. But now he's making forty and
all these other assets who were on team friendly deals
are either not even worth that money anymore or they're
just breaking down physically. Yeah, and the running back another year,
(22:36):
three hundred odd touches that it eventually catches up to you. Yeah,
the treads are wearing down there. Yeah, I don't. I don't.
I think the Cowboys, uh that they had to do it.
Like if he should die, he's gonna cost you forty
million dollars under these circumstances that really wasn't in doubt,
because the worst case for him is he plays it
out for thirty eight and now he's made seventy million
(22:58):
dollars for two and it's day or he walks and
he hits the market at the very time the caption
start exploding again. Yeah. Yeah, that's that's the other thing too.
I mean, when this deal's up, he's only gonna be
thirty one. Yeah. So all right, well let's wrap this up.
Let's get some bold predictions from you. Let's talk about
(23:18):
Watson really quick. Will he be traded? Yes or no? Yes? Wow, Wow,
that's crazy just to think about that. Will the Falcons
draft a quarterback? Yeah? I don't. I don't see how
you don't, even if it's a developmental guy, a mid
round guy. But you know, certain people fall. There could
(23:41):
be a case to be made in the second round
as well. I don't think they're going to do it
at four unless somebody doesn't take a quarterback, you know
what I mean. I'm assuming you could have quarterbacks one, two, three.
If it's something other than that, then that's a different scenario. Okay,
how many more years do you see Matt and who
Leo Jones playing together one, So this could be the
(24:06):
farewell to where you're saying, well, I think if if
you're a new regime and you did not, you're not
invested in that quarterback. You're not emotionally invested in him.
You weren't sitting there watching the super Bowl that they
almost won as a as a as a member of
that organization. You weren't there for draft day. You didn't
work them out at BC. You know what I mean,
(24:27):
You don't have that sweat. You've got to come in
and be cold heart and calculated decision makers, because otherwise
you're not going to do what's in the best interests
of yourself and the football team. And you look at
the inflection points in that contract and when the pendulum
starts finally swinging in a way where it's less cumbersome
(24:47):
to let go and the Keith if we don't think
he's our guy for the next three years, and somebody
else needs to start getting those reps because we think
that person is going to be an ascending player for us,
and we need to start taking some lumps with him
in twenty one one or twenty in twenty two, so
that by twenty three, we're where we want to be.
(25:08):
Father Time is undefeated. And if you look at the
quarterbacks of his cohort, Tom Brady's on another point, like
he's a freaking now, like that's whatever, he's a he's
an alien. But everybody else, the Flaccos, the Roethlisbergers, the
Eli Mannings of Philip Rivers. That's not Drew Breeze, that's
(25:35):
that's shaky ground. Yeah, when you last question, and when
you and I just started thinking about teams that need
a quarterback right now in my head, but is there
an offseason move that you think could happen or you've
you've heard things or in discussions it's kind of come
(25:57):
up that could happen that no one is really expecting
or talking about right now. What would be you know,
in your mind kind of surprised people, but not really
surprising to you. When you think about maybe some of
these teams that still need a quarterback. I'm thinking of Chicago,
(26:17):
I'm thinking in New England possibly, I'm thinking of San Francisco.
I mean Jimmy g thing's not really Yeah, there's rumors
about that, But is there anything out there that you're hearing?
There are teams that are not settled on their quarterback,
even though he's a veteran, and even though he makes
a lot of money, and even though he might be
deemed to be in his prime, and even if he's
(26:38):
been fairly successful, you know, like David David Carr or Garoppolo,
those those teams, they don't just have one on on
everything else that's going around. They basically two like, we
got this guy in our back pocket, but we got
we're we're our heads on a swivel for opportunities to
(26:58):
upgrade through the draft, free agency, or through trades, and
then there if those moves are made, then there's a
trickle down effect. You know, if the Raiders trade for
Russell Wilson, but Seattle's not interested in Derek Carr, you know,
they'd rather call them David Carr before, so they're not
interested in Derek Carr. Then does Derek Carr get traded
(27:20):
to the Washington football team in order it for have
more assets to include it a Russell Wilson trade. Maybe
Seattle's interested in Mariota and the other end of that thing. Okay,
but now we've got Russell Wilson and Car. So where
is card going? And I'll go back to Washington if
Kyle Shanahan is able to get to Shaun Watson. And
(27:42):
I don't know that they're going to have the draft
capital to do it. I don't know that they match
up as a trade partner as well as you know,
potentially Carolina or Miami or some other teams. But then
does Garoppolo go back to New England. So I think
this thing's kind of kind of happened in waves, and
the first wave is kind of settled, um, but there'll
be another wave coming, probably closer to the draft that
(28:04):
could have I mean, like, if you told me there
was a free way trade involving at least two current
NFL starting quarterbacks and two arguably top ten quarterbacks depending
on how much you value you know, complete your percentage
and some of the things that car really excels at,
(28:24):
I wouldn't flinch. You told me that that were three
way trade before the draft that had two top end
NFL starters changing addresses, I wouldn't flinch. There you go,
all right, Jason Lacking for Man's great scene you man likewise,
Buddy Glory, right on you. This is now go. We've
(28:52):
renamed this episode, all right, Jason
And welcome to the thirtieth Wow, thirtieth episode of Bird
Noises presented by Bows in Atlanta, Falcons podcast about football
and mostly everything else, or, as digital director Dan Gad says,
world likes to say, because falcons are birds, and birds
make noises. All right, Now that we've given some love
(00:21):
to the sponsor and Dan Gad, let's get to our
next guest. He is an NFL insider for CBS Sports
and a senior writer for CBS sports dot Com. Before that,
he was the Washington football team beat writer for the
Washington Post for six years, and he served as the
NFL Networks Insider Baltimore. Name can be seen every Sunday
(00:41):
during this season on the NFL Today. Jason Lockham for
my friend. We've got a lot of topics we're gonna
hit today, including Terry Fontne, Arthur Smith, the Falcons new
regime in place. What does Jason think of that pairing
and their short term and long term success. We're gonna
(01:02):
talk a little bit about the NFL Draft, what the
Falcons might do. We're gonna talk about some NFL rumors
and some things that could happen between now and Draft
Day around the league, including the falcons. But first, welcome
to bird noises. What's going on? You may hear some
dog noises. I'm being cooplicated by that. Hey, bird noises,
(01:26):
dog noises, but no thanks, thanks for having me. I'll
try to keep the dog noises to a minimum. And
we do get a lot of action in this tree
right behind me, so we may get we may get
some ambient sound bird noises as well. That's perfect. What
do you think of that named Jason noises? It works
for me, man, that's like it. Yeah, okay, who thumbs up?
(01:49):
Two wings up? There we go. All right. So just
to kind of figure out where your headspace is right
about now, I like to do a little rapid fire. Okay,
So I'm gonna say five words or phrases is and
you just tell me the first thing that comes to
your mind dangerous I know, I know. And so we
(02:09):
have you know, beeps and everything like that. So okay,
all right, Matt Ryan, I don't want to the first
thing I fucked in Mike in my head. Uh. All
things must end eventually. The new are coming NFL TV deal,
(02:36):
Oh straight cash for me? The Seaun Watson In twenty
twenty one, New beginnings. Wow, the NFC South, one of
these things is not like the other. I'll go with that. Um, well,
(03:02):
you know, I've only had a sip of my coffee,
bit out and need any analysis is good? Uh? The
Falcons at number four trade up down or stap up.
I think at the end of the day they stay put. Um, okay,
we just a rapid fire mode. I want to elaborate. Yeah, okay,
we're going all right, all right, good stuff. So Jason,
(03:26):
you've obviously fired or I've obviously followed. Jeez, all the
hirings and firings with the gms and coaches this offseason. Um,
before we get into the Falcons, which moves surprised you
the most? Could be GM or coach or both. You
don't have to you don't have to go deep in
the weeds over but we're there, just a couple of
(03:46):
head scratchers. The Texans UH search was bizarre by any standard.
You basically had a lot of money and apparent power
give even to a team president and a search firm,
and you basically had the owner doing a parallel search
(04:09):
on his own that involved one GM candidate and a
head coach who certainly at that time wasn't. They hired
a guy who neither search really was sort of originally
geared to get to and they obviously went to war
with their quarterback in the middle of it. That I mean,
David Culley getting this first opportunity to be a head
(04:32):
coach under those circumstances, coming off a year in which
the Ravens passing attacks, someone who lives in Baltimore was
under attack all year, and now he becomes a head
coach in those circumstances. I don't think many saw that coming,
including cal McNair in the Houston Texans themselves, but that's
how it ended up. All right, let's jump into the Falcons.
(04:56):
I thought maybe you might go up to Detroit and
start talk about kneecaps, but let's go they're delicious this
time of year. I hear. I think this is we're
now entering Pete Meek, Like, if you're a kneecap hunter,
this is your time. Let's tell him they're getting good.
They're actually taking an early spring just before the spring. Yeah,
(05:18):
that's unfortunate because they need to be in season in
the fall. Right. Um, Yeah, that's gonna be a problem.
One of many so Falcons. What do you think of
these two moves? What do you think of Terry Fontno
and Arthur Smith? You know, Arthur Smith was the one
candidate that was on everybody's list, Terry Fontno first time GM,
but kind of came up under Mickey Lewis. What do
(05:38):
you think of these two hires? Um? Look, I had
heard Terry Fonteno's name very very early in the process,
and I knew he's someone who they thought highly of.
But then I talked to a lot of people in
the know as well. Once the rule came into effect,
the you know, the adaptations to the running rule and
the idea of compensation, and there were a lot of
(05:58):
people in the league who fought that might give the
Falcons pause because, let's face it, I don't have to
tell you guys about the rivalry with the Saints and
the Saints being in salary cap hell and the Saints
needing additional draft picks more than ever, and the potential
we get two top picks over the next couple of years.
That's that's a thing like that's yeah, that's a that's
(06:21):
that's an unusual circumstance that would be germane to this
hypothetical or potential hire. That wouldn't matter as much to
a team that was hiring a coach from the other
coast and the other conference, for instance. Right, But obviously,
you know, their process led them to that conclusion, and
(06:41):
you know, to try to handicap these things, it is
impossible you know which ones are going to work, which
ones aren't going to work. Um, I will just say this,
they have their work kylet for them. You know. I
think this is a team that, um, you walk into
some situations and a lot of the dirty works already
(07:03):
been done. Right, They've already cut the cord with some
players who the battle of the heart verse the mind?
What is he now? What do I see him as
in my mind's eye? What is his compensation now? What
is his future compensation going to be? Is he ascending
or descending? Right? Sometimes you walk into situations where those
decisions have already been made by the previous regime before
(07:26):
they're let go. So I think this is you know,
this is a tricky little wicket that they're walking into
because to me, this is a team that didn't really
fully embrace what it was or where it was trending
for a while. And I always go back to my
econ one or one opportunity cost. What's not just the
(07:46):
move you make, but it's the potential ramifications of the
moves you didn't make, which right, they're now walking into
a situation where they have all these additional picks because
the fact's been trimmed and guys were traded while they
still had some value. Um, they don't have a great
cap situation. They don't have a treasure trove of picks
that some other teams do. So, Um, there's certainly a
(08:08):
lot of work to be done. Yeah, they've they've got
to get in compliance with the cap. They've got six
picks right now, Jace, and you know, probably a couple
compensatory picks. In a way, though, you gotta think, you know,
it's kind of a good thing that they get to
make those decisions with, you know, saying Matt Ryan and
Julio Jones and some of those, some of those moves,
(08:30):
because then it's you know, they can't say, well, we
would have done this or we would have done that. Um,
I guess you can look at it that way too,
right that they it's you know, they got the keys
and you could, um truly do it their way. Yeah, Yeah,
I guess, so, um, okay, I guess if you were
looking to get maximum compensation, you know, I think, yeah, well,
(08:56):
with Matt, you're not You're not gonna be able to
train that contract. I mean, that is what it is
at this point. And even with Julio, with the way
that contract set up down the road, you'd probably just
be inclined to keep him and see what he looks
like at age thirty three or whatever. But I mean,
I don't want to go too far down the rabbit hole. Well,
would these guys have even done the last extension, you
(09:17):
know what I mean? Or would that have been maybe
the time to trade him and you're drafting Ridley or whatever.
So yeah, I love they have an owner who understands
the situation. He knows they're not walking into a rebuild
that's already been sent up for them, and here's your
here's all your additional picks, and here's all your cap space,
and don't do whatever you want. I think they will
(09:39):
get that carte blanche blank check shoes the punt from
from Arthur blank at the appropriate time. But to me,
this is a team that still has some tearing down
to do before it really builds. Up when you think
about you know that we keep hearing about the short
term plan, long term plan for sustained success. You know,
obviously everybody that interviewed for these jobs have to come
(10:01):
in and present, hey, this is how we can win now,
this is how we win long term. Just you know,
you've covered the league so long. You know, even when
you have a situation like this, you can't predict. But
with the core players they have, you know, there's there
remains it remains be seen. You know what happens with
some other players like Alex Mack and and that kind
(10:23):
of thing. But do you think that the core is
there if they draft right, is there a chance that
they can, you know, especially with the expanded you know,
playoff format, sneak in and win enough games. And they've
been a seven or nine team two years. They lost
ten games last year by a score or lass. I mean,
(10:43):
you could, you are what you are, But is there
a chance that they can come in and compete and
possibly be competitive this first year in your mind? Realistically? Yeah,
I mean I guess it depends on how how you
define compete. Could they be playing games in December? Yeah,
that's what I mean. Have a ramification to be in
(11:06):
the mix for the extra wildcard spot. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
I mean I think a lot of teams are going
to be in that boat. Um, is this a team
that I think is poised to go on a run
of a bunch of division titles and started sending you know,
wildcard championship game, super Bowl? Not that it always works
(11:28):
that way anyway, but no, you know what I mean,
I I don't think so, but this is going to
be another unusual year. We don't know the all season
rules quite yet. Um, you know, fans, no fans, Will
that be the same across the board? Will it be
different based on you know, geography and local government, so
(11:49):
that there's a lot of variables. Um, but look, there's
in a league of that strives for parody. The field
of what constitute's parody has been expanded, you know, by
the additional game and by the additional playoff. Um. So yeah,
I mean sure, could they be in the hunt for
(12:11):
something in a wild clime? They could? Um, but I'll
just be fascinated to see the decisions they make and
how because there's there can be a lot of fools,
gold and that stuff, you know what I mean? So
like are you're chasing that and and and walking away
from opportunities to shed salary, to pick up a pick,
even if it's a lower pick, and really build for
(12:32):
the future, you know which it's hard to mind both
those both parts of that garden at once. And yeah,
because you don't want to be you don't want to
be selling the message that hey, we're kicking the can
down the road and you know we're you know, we're
not we're not trying to compete. But at the same time,
(12:53):
you want to be in a position for where you
can really build this thing. Yeah, like if if you're
around five hundred and some, he's peddling whatever, a guard
that you fix, an upgrade who's got one year left
on this contract, you know what I mean? Are you
trading third and fourth round picks to try to subsidize
you know, mediocrity and then parting with a you know
(13:17):
what I mean, an asset that could provide five four
years of extreme value on a rookie contract and maybe
play ten years you know, in the league. So you
know that where are they if they if they are
like to your theory in the hunt, in an expanded hunt,
are they you know what I mean, are they still
(13:37):
playing the long game or do you start playing the
short game? Right? Right? Right? Right? He's trying to give
him hope, Jason, He's trying to get him hope here.
I don't know the answer to those questions, but that
you know, if those will be little inflection points, you know,
when when roster cutdowns are happening and there's all these
dudes on the street, you know, which way are they going?
(14:00):
Trade deadline? Which where are they going? It's going to
be interesting too because there is no cap number set yet,
right we know we know what the minimum is going
to be, and so that's going to be really fascinating
too to see, like how many of these guys are
going to take like these one year prove it deals maybe,
and they're gonna pick, you know, where what situations are
(14:23):
going to be best for them where they can cash
in after a season. So I think the teams that
really do their work there could really benefit too. Yeah,
like you said, it's going to be fascinating to watch.
What are your thoughts on the NFC South again? Just
you know, there's so many unknowns. We don't know what
the Panthers are going to do at quarterback We don't
(14:45):
know what the Saints are going to do at quarterback.
We know what Brady just did, you know, with restructuring,
how do you see? What are your just general thoughts
about the NFC South right now? I think it's it's
Tampa and everybody else, you know, as we speak, Tom
Brady is working on a renegotiation slash extension that's going
(15:10):
to free up a lot of cap space for the
bucks they have, and he won't be the only guy
who probably ends up taking you know, less that he
could get if he played it out to the fullest
on the open market. Then what he's willing to take
in Tampa, you know, the gronk will be back, and
it'll be you know, a deal that everybody can live with.
(15:34):
A b will likely be back, and he's not breaking
the bank either. And there's a lot of teams that
wouldn't even bring them in no matter what. So his
market's alway right constricted, you know. And Don mckinsue seems
to really like Florida and the no state income tax,
and another year at eight million might be just right
for him. So I think that's a team that's in
(15:56):
keep it together mode. Yeah, for sure, they and they're
gonna partly they're gonna slap a tag on somebody, whether
it's Godwin or Shack Barrett. They may lose some people,
Lavante David, They may lose some people, but they've also
drafted pretty well recently. Yeah, and you know, they got
the growing pains out of the way. They know what
Brady is, he knows what they are. That's a good point.
(16:19):
They melted the scheme. There's some bird noises. It's trash day.
So here's here's the trash though. The Saints they're obviously
in transition. Everything cynical. Like we said at the beginning,
everything eventually has its end. Um, can they be better
(16:42):
with Jamis? And if if they keep Jamis? And I
think they will, you know, does this thing with Breeze
get a little messy if he decides he really wants
to come back? Um, you think there's any chance he
comes back? I don't think there's a market for Drew Brees, Yeah,
I don't. Um and moving really in New Orleans at
this point. But they're they've got to reimagine themselves. And
(17:08):
their credit card bills are due. Yeah, yeah, you know,
and we know Atlanta's in a transition, and the Panthers
are in the year two of a new regime, but
really year one from a front office standpoint, right, because
they let Marty Herny go in season and um, you know,
mix their front office up so that they're still a
(17:30):
rebuilding team. I mean, they're not in contending mode that
that owner will start spending big money on them this year.
I suspect, but that's not a team that even if
they get it to Shaun Watson, I mean, it would help,
But if they get Deshaun Watson, they're probably Robbie Peter
to pay Paul like Burns. See, if we want him
as part of the package Chan that's a really useful
(17:52):
hybrid defender. We want him and a bunch of first
round picks. So that was the rumor, right that they
wanted two ones and some defensive starters or something like that.
I thought, No, I mean, look, Tapper will be willing
to do a lot to get to Shaun Watson. Um,
I would not discount their chances. But again, you're you're
going to be stripping away a lot of assets. It's
(18:12):
not just gonna be pixed. It would be players too.
So that's why I think Tampa is trying to keep
a known commodity together, and I think they're gonna be
pretty successful doing that. Everybody else is in some degree
of you know, tear down or rebuild m interesting stuff there.
(18:32):
So when it comes to the cap and I'm not
gonna you know, well we kind of covered that, it's
gonna be really interesting to see what these teams do.
As far as like when the when the number is
actually set, are you hearing anything as far as when
we can expect it? Do you think it's going to
happen before Mark seventeen? Um? Probably, yeah, probably, but it
(18:55):
wouldn't absolutely positive. We have to. I mean, the thing
is like, do you know it's gonna you know, it's
gonna go up a bit eventually. What's that? I mean
you look at the deal last night, Dak Prescott. I
mean there, I know, we know the number is going
to be down this year, but beyond that, are they thinking, yeah,
they'll be growth? I mean, these TV new TV deals
(19:17):
will start kicking in, um, you know, other expanded revenue
streams whatever. You know, they've only stuck their toe in
the gambling pool in terms of sponsorships and you know,
as sports wagering becomes legal and more and more stakes
you're gonna have. They've already have some arenas where there's
brick and mortar sports books right there. Revenue streams look
(19:41):
like over time. Well, teams have their own gambling apps
as well. So yes, I think the arrow is trending.
And then you know, people are getting vaccinated for this
horrible virus and you know, hopefully the worst of that
is over. So yeah, there's a lot of economic trends
that are pointing up for the league. Yeah, and I
(20:02):
think a lot is made of the cap, probably too much,
like you know, if it ends up being one eighty
eight or one eighty five, right, you know what I mean? Like, Okay,
so maybe that costs you a swing tackle if you've
projected the wrong way and you've got a little less
than you thought. But so many of these contracts are
fungible anyway. You can create cap space where you want it.
(20:25):
If you're an owner who's willing to go cash over
tap and you think you're close to winning, whether it
comes in at one eighty five or one ninety two,
at the end of the day, macro level is not
a huge difference, you know, And again they all know
that it's going up in the future, so you can
structure deals so that, hey, in twenty twenty three, you're
(20:46):
gonna go to lump some payment of fifty million bucks.
It's fully guaranteed at the time assigning right now for
injury skill and cap. But we don't want to take
that cap. We want to delay that cap for a
couple of years. I mean, Patrick Mahomes did a deal
last year right where he's only making sixty million dollars
the first three years, and they got Chris Jones, right,
and they so where there's a will is he jack quick?
(21:10):
General thoughts on that deal last night that Prescott and
the Cowboys agreed to, I mean, no trade clause, no
more tagging. It's it's kind of fair player. That's kind
of like the perfect contract, right. He got everything he
wanted a year ago except more. Yeah, he got everything.
He got everything, like all the parameters that he wanted
(21:32):
a year ago, less than five years, no future tag.
He was willing to do that a year ago for
thirty three a year. He's now getting it all that
same stuff in a year where he got hurt, barely played,
and he's doing it at a price point of forty
versus thirty three. So the people trying to tell me
that this is a win winner that the Cowboy, I'm like, well, no,
(21:55):
they had this player the whole time. You could have
got him for twenty eighty years two years ago, you
could have got him for three a year eleven months ago.
And you're paying him forty while he's coming off a
season ending injury and your offensive lines getting worse and
the cap is not going to be what it was
supposed to be this year, and your defense still sticks. Well,
(22:15):
you couldn't, you couldn't really build a contender. Well, and
he's making three hundred thousand dollars a year, but yeah,
the CAP's going up. But now he's making forty and
all these other assets who were on team friendly deals
are either not even worth that money anymore or they're
just breaking down physically. Yeah, and the running back another year,
(22:36):
three hundred odd touches that it eventually catches up to you. Yeah,
the treads are wearing down there. Yeah, I don't. I don't.
I think the Cowboys, uh that they had to do it.
Like if he should die, he's gonna cost you forty
million dollars under these circumstances that really wasn't in doubt,
because the worst case for him is he plays it
out for thirty eight and now he's made seventy million
(22:58):
dollars for two and it's day or he walks and
he hits the market at the very time the caption
start exploding again. Yeah. Yeah, that's that's the other thing too.
I mean, when this deal's up, he's only gonna be
thirty one. Yeah. So all right, well let's wrap this up.
Let's get some bold predictions from you. Let's talk about
(23:18):
Watson really quick. Will he be traded? Yes or no? Yes? Wow, Wow,
that's crazy just to think about that. Will the Falcons
draft a quarterback? Yeah? I don't. I don't see how
you don't, even if it's a developmental guy, a mid
round guy. But you know, certain people fall. There could
(23:41):
be a case to be made in the second round
as well. I don't think they're going to do it
at four unless somebody doesn't take a quarterback, you know
what I mean. I'm assuming you could have quarterbacks one, two, three.
If it's something other than that, then that's a different scenario. Okay,
how many more years do you see Matt and who
Leo Jones playing together one, So this could be the
(24:06):
farewell to where you're saying, well, I think if if
you're a new regime and you did not, you're not
invested in that quarterback. You're not emotionally invested in him.
You weren't sitting there watching the super Bowl that they
almost won as a as a as a member of
that organization. You weren't there for draft day. You didn't
work them out at BC. You know what I mean,
(24:27):
You don't have that sweat. You've got to come in
and be cold heart and calculated decision makers, because otherwise
you're not going to do what's in the best interests
of yourself and the football team. And you look at
the inflection points in that contract and when the pendulum
starts finally swinging in a way where it's less cumbersome
(24:47):
to let go and the Keith if we don't think
he's our guy for the next three years, and somebody
else needs to start getting those reps because we think
that person is going to be an ascending player for us,
and we need to start taking some lumps with him
in twenty one one or twenty in twenty two, so
that by twenty three, we're where we want to be.
(25:08):
Father Time is undefeated. And if you look at the
quarterbacks of his cohort, Tom Brady's on another point, like
he's a freaking now, like that's whatever, he's a he's
an alien. But everybody else, the Flaccos, the Roethlisbergers, the
Eli Mannings of Philip Rivers. That's not Drew Breeze, that's
(25:35):
that's shaky ground. Yeah, when you last question, and when
you and I just started thinking about teams that need
a quarterback right now in my head, but is there
an offseason move that you think could happen or you've
you've heard things or in discussions it's kind of come
(25:57):
up that could happen that no one is really expecting
or talking about right now. What would be you know,
in your mind kind of surprised people, but not really
surprising to you. When you think about maybe some of
these teams that still need a quarterback. I'm thinking of Chicago,
(26:17):
I'm thinking in New England possibly, I'm thinking of San Francisco.
I mean Jimmy g thing's not really Yeah, there's rumors
about that, But is there anything out there that you're hearing?
There are teams that are not settled on their quarterback,
even though he's a veteran, and even though he makes
a lot of money, and even though he might be
deemed to be in his prime, and even if he's
(26:38):
been fairly successful, you know, like David David Carr or Garoppolo,
those those teams, they don't just have one on on
everything else that's going around. They basically two like, we
got this guy in our back pocket, but we got
we're we're our heads on a swivel for opportunities to
(26:58):
upgrade through the draft, free agency, or through trades, and
then there if those moves are made, then there's a
trickle down effect. You know, if the Raiders trade for
Russell Wilson, but Seattle's not interested in Derek Carr, you know,
they'd rather call them David Carr before, so they're not
interested in Derek Carr. Then does Derek Carr get traded
(27:20):
to the Washington football team in order it for have
more assets to include it a Russell Wilson trade. Maybe
Seattle's interested in Mariota and the other end of that thing. Okay,
but now we've got Russell Wilson and Car. So where
is card going? And I'll go back to Washington if
Kyle Shanahan is able to get to Shaun Watson. And
(27:42):
I don't know that they're going to have the draft
capital to do it. I don't know that they match
up as a trade partner as well as you know,
potentially Carolina or Miami or some other teams. But then
does Garoppolo go back to New England. So I think
this thing's kind of kind of happened in waves, and
the first wave is kind of settled, um, but there'll
be another wave coming, probably closer to the draft that
(28:04):
could have I mean, like, if you told me there
was a free way trade involving at least two current
NFL starting quarterbacks and two arguably top ten quarterbacks depending
on how much you value you know, complete your percentage
and some of the things that car really excels at,
(28:24):
I wouldn't flinch. You told me that that were three
way trade before the draft that had two top end
NFL starters changing addresses, I wouldn't flinch. There you go,
all right, Jason Lacking for Man's great scene you man likewise,
Buddy Glory, right on you. This is now go. We've
(28:52):
renamed this episode, all right, Jason
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