February 19, 2021 • 41 mins
NFL contracts & salary cap expert Joel Corry joins Matt Tabeek for this episode of Bird Noises to discuss the Falcons salary cap situation, what’s happening across the league, and shares a few memorable moments. Podcast Recorded on 2/11/2021 0:00 Intro 1:33 Topics 2:08 Salary Cap Reduction in 2021 12:03 Falcons Salary Cap Situation 30:41 Saints Situation 34:16 Memorable Salary Cap Moments 38:49 Rapid Fire Predictions
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Falcons fans, heck, NFL fans everywhere. I am so excited
to have today's guest on. He's a former sports agent
who helped found correct me if I'm wrong. Premier Sports
and Entertainment represents coaches and athletes. He's represented a ton
of athletes, including Seaquille O'Neill, Akimbo LaJuan, Ronnie Lott, and
(00:23):
probably a ton of other NFL players. I know he
has and I don't know how many former Falcons he's represented.
We'll get into that in a minute. But he's appeared
on ESPN, CBS. I worked with him at CBS Sports.
He writes, agents take and he's been on countless radio
shows across the country. Ladies and Gentlemen, Falcons Nation, I
(00:43):
am so stoked to introduce my friend, former colleague, Joel Corey. Joel,
great to see you, man, Hey, thanks for having me.
Good you look good man. Where are you these days? Oh?
Sonny Las Vegas, Nevada, where it is going to be
seven degrees today? Wow? Yeah, rubber in all right? So
coming up. If you live in the Deep South, it
(01:04):
never gets that cold. I remember when I was when
I was at Emory, they canceled class once because of
the forecast of snow. You know, I'm like, wait until
it actually the snows. Growing up in growing up in Nashville,
we actually had to have snow before high school got canceled. Well,
you remember, I was down in for a Lauderdale CBS,
(01:24):
So coming up here is like, you know, coming up
to the north. Yeah, that is true. That is true.
So well, let's let's get to the topics we're gonna cover.
We're gonna cover the looming salary cap. It looks like
a reduction. Uh, We're gonna talk about the Falcon salary cap,
Joel and how that's gonna impact roster decisions. I hope
you've been studying up on the Falcons roster. I know you.
(01:47):
I know you've been writing about a lot of different teams.
And then if we have time, I want to talk
about the uh, the New Orleans Saints, because you know,
Falcons fans feel pretty bad about, you know, the impending
gloom and doom. The salary cap of the Saints actually
have kind of a worse situation. Look, let's just jump
right into it. Let's just get right into the salary cap.
(02:07):
And there's so much to unpack joll. But if you could,
and I'm not saying cliff notes, but what is the
big issue right now with the salary cap as far
as this a possible reduction, and what's it mean for
just teams in general. Well, revenues went down drastically because
(02:29):
of the coronavirus pandemic. There were no stands in the
fans for fans and stands for the most part, and
that reversed the first time. So local revenue is approximately
thirty five of league wide revenue, so when you don't
have that, that's a major piece of the pie. So
the NFL and NFLPA in the preseason agreed to limit
(02:52):
the losses for this year, at least how they count
cap wise, the salary cap flour one hundred seventy five
million losses, maybe more than that, but the cap won't
be any lower than one hundred and seventy five million.
If they have to, they'll borrow from future years and
spread those losses out over twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three,
and twenty twenty four if necessary. The cap right now
(03:16):
is one hundred ninety eight point two million pre pandemic.
The planning the teams had was conservatively, the cap would
go up roughly six seven percent to the two hundred
and ten million dollars range. So you're talking salary cap
planning and teams planning three year snapshots of two hundred
and ten million to now you're dealing with worst case
(03:36):
scenario one hundred and seventy five million. If the NFL
can get the new media rights deals done before the
league year starts on March seventeenth to twenty twenty one
league year, that can be a game changer, and the
NFL would feel more comfortable borrowing from future years and
(03:58):
keeping the cap is close to remaining flat is possible,
knowing the infusion of revenue would be certain. If you
don't have new TV two deals done, then expect the
cap to be one hundred eighty million, maybe one eighty
five at best, which is terrible for players because teams
(04:19):
since they were playing, we're talking about how much how
much drop per team with that twenty some million. Yeah,
you're talking about planning for two ten initially, and you're
gonna be at one eighty So you're talking thirty million
below what your expectation is. That's gonna be a buyer's market.
Teams are gonna have to cut players they wouldn't otherwise
(04:42):
cut to be capped compliant, which means that there will
be a great amount of supply exceeding demand in free agency.
So you don't want to be a free agent unless
you're one of the top guys don't get paid regardless,
but everyone else it's going to be a bleak Outlook.
(05:02):
If a team asks you to take a pay cut
under those circumstances, you may want to consider it, because
a burden a hand maybe worth two in the bush
this year. Hopefully everything gets back to normal in the
twenty twenty one season. You have fans in the stands
the whole year, and the Super Bowl is a sellout
like it always is. And in twenty twenty two then
(05:26):
the cap can start going back up. TV deals should
be done by then and it'll be business as usual.
So if I'm a free agent, I may take a
one year deal if I'm a younger guy, if I
can't find the money I want in a long term
deal and try to hit it again in twenty twenty two.
Just unfortunate that you would happen to have an expiring
contract in this year. If you didn't have a great year. So, yeah,
(05:49):
a lot of guys are going to have to bet
on themselves, is what you're saying, right, Yes, more so
than would in the past. Yeah, what do you talk
to a lot of gms and a lot of front
office people. Still, what is your sense if you had
to make a prediction right now of what you think
will happen? What you know with the TV deal and
(06:09):
what you think that that number is? You know, what's
the solve? What do you think? What do you think happens?
You know, based on your what you're here, and what
you think. Well, nobody the TV deals the unknown variable,
nobody knows are going to get done. But some teams
are using one seventy five the floor for planning now,
some are using one eighty. But teams aren't using anything
(06:31):
remotely close to the current level one hundred ninety eight
point two million for their cap planning for the twenty
twenty one season. And I'm planning for worst case. You're saying, yes, well,
you always plan conservatively. If you're running a team salary cap.
You can't go, hey, the CAP's gonna go up ten percent,
and then if it doesn't, you've been planning for ten
percent you're kind of screwed. One thing which it is
(06:52):
going to affect is the later that the NFL sets
a salary cap because typically projections supplementarily are made into December,
we have a conservative range where the cap is, and
then into February when the combine takes place. Typically, which
it isn't like it would normally in Annapolis, is when
the cap is finally set early March, so everyone knows
(07:14):
what they're doing. The franchise and transition tag numbers are
a percentage of the cap, so you won't know the
exact numbers until the twenty twenty one salary cap is set.
But regardless, since the cap is expected to go down,
those numbers are going to drop. Like I'll use an
example for one, Derrick Henry franchise tag was ten point
(07:37):
two seven eight million this year is a running back.
Now if the cap is at the floor of one
hundred and seventy five million, then that number is going
to be eight point four because the way the franchise
tags work that it's the average of the top five
salaries at a position over five year period where you were.
It's a complicated for me, and more so than it
(07:59):
was under your cbas where you take to some of
these the franchise tag numbers of past five years or
some of the salary caps, divide those two numbers into
each other, multiplied by what the salary cap is, and
that's what the number is for position. So if the
cap drops, those numbers are going to drop dramatically. Yeah. Wow,
(08:19):
who so I can't Obviously it behooves everybody to get
this TV deal then, And I've read on Pro football
talk in different places that there they And then you
tweeted out something yesterday, that CNBC story about how this
could be a game changer, this new deal. Correct. Yeah,
because if I haven't seen television or media rights deals
(08:41):
go down to day that happens, God forbid the sport
for if it's a cap sport for that, because then
everybody's salaries go down. The expectation is there's going to
be a substantial increase in media rights deals because you
look at the highest rated TV programs. Even though the
Super Bowl number viewership was down, the ratings for down.
It's dominated by NFL telecasts. Use ratings are down across
(09:07):
the board because of chord cutting. Primetime TV isn't what
it used to be. But one thing you can count
on to generate ratings is the NFL. So why do
you think it's going to go up? Because there's other
players in the game, and because there's talk of going
seventeen games less preseason, and then ESPN wants to be
from what I read, ESPN wants to in ABC. ESPN
(09:29):
ABC wants to get in that Super Bowl rotation, right
is So is that kind of the next factor? Yeah,
that also helps anytime you're going to add more inventory,
extra game to add more inventory by increasing the playoffs,
and if you have a party which is on the
outside looking in wanting again, that's a league's dream. You've
seen the last round of baseball rights go up. The
(09:52):
NBA's went up dramatically. The NFL is still the ratings king,
So the anticipation is that they're still they're going to
go up dramatically as well. Deal's gonna get done before
the league the new league gear. Your guess is as
good as mine. People thought they might come on during
the regular season. I have no inside knowledge about that.
(10:12):
So if they get done, that's great for the cap.
If not, then it's gonna be a year you where
you don't want to be a player unless you're a
marquee free agent. Yeah, how big too was it to
get that ten year CBA deal done before, you know,
before the pandemic hit and everything like that. Well as
it was hitting. Well, the funny thing is that thing
(10:34):
barely passed by the players because there was a faction
of players and Aaron Rodgers, who was a Green based
player repping on the player rep board, was very vocal
in his opposition that he didn't think that the players
are getting enough to give up a seventeenth game now
nobody knew the pandemic was coming. I would hate to
see what the situation would have looked like if we
(10:56):
played the twenty twenty season in the last year the
CB under two thousand eleven CBA, and then they're gonna
have to go and negotiate a new CBA in a
pandemic environment. I would imagine there'd be a work stoppage
and there would be a lockout like in two eleven,
because the owners would use the pandemic is a reason
(11:17):
to extract concessions from players that they've always wanted. In
two eleven, they clawed back a lot of stuff from
the two thousand and six CBA, which they thought was
two player friendly, and I think you would see the
same dynamic again, or maybe the players would have a
little more resolve just because they would feel that the
owners are unfairly or unjustifiably using the pandemic to try
(11:41):
to rectify or remedy a situation that didn't necessarily need
to be remedied. So some players weren't all that happy
about the new deal, but given what it could have
been in this environment, yeah, it worked out well for
the players under the circumstances that we're going to be
that we're unforeseen at the time. Yeah, thank goodness, we're
(12:02):
not in that situation. All right. Well, let's segue right
into the Atlanta Falconstrol. How bad is it? I get
questions all the time, and that's why I'm really exciting.
How long have I been asking you to come on?
I think since what seventeen since I got here? Right? Oh?
So long? Come on? It feels like it. But how
bad is it? You know? I Falcons fans you get
(12:24):
you know, you know how it is with fandom. Some
of them just overreact, knee jerk and you know, but
it's not great. Bob, what's the Falcons situation in a nutshell,
if you you know going into this right now, it's
one of the worst in the league. It's probably bottom five,
but there are a couple of teams which are way worse. Um,
(12:45):
if the cap is gonna be one eighty, the Falcons
are roughly thirty two million over the cap. They're ways
for you can try to create cap room. There's some
obvious guys you would release, like Ricardo Alan, James Carpenter,
Alan Bailey the ones that come to mind about releasing.
And if you release Ricardo Allen, you're gonna pick up
(13:05):
six point two five million a caper. If you released
James Carpenter that's about four million. Allan Bailey gets you
about four point five million. There's some obvious guys to restructure.
Jake Matthews has the highest offensive line cap number the
NFL at twenty point two million. Grady Jarrett highest offensive
(13:25):
line cap number in the NFL. Grady Jarrett's number four
at defensive tackles at twenty point eighty three three million,
and then Dion Jones. It's got a twelve point six
three million dollars cap number. That's another one that screams
salary restructure. By restructure, I mean you're pushing cap obligations
into tomorrow, kicking the can down the road. Where you
(13:46):
take base salary or other salary components like a roster
bonus converted into signing bonus, and you can take the
mount that you convert into signing bonus and pro rated
over the life of the contract. Or if you want
to get it really creative, like the Saints do, you
can start adding voidable voting years to the contract so
you can stretch out, stretch out the pro ration for
(14:07):
over more years, create more cap room because the voting
years count for pro ration purposes. But there's a cost
to that because then you're gonna have more dead money
when those years void. Now, if you're talking Grady Jared,
he's under contract through twenty twenty two, so you could
take like twelve and a half million to a minimum
(14:28):
base salary. At least you don't have to drop it
down to a minimum based salary. You can take a
restructure and cut the base salary to whatever you want.
And the reason I say you can cut to wherever
you want is in these contracts, over the past a
decade or so, teams have inserted in the addendums, automatic
salary conversion rights, so it's no longer a negotiation between
(14:51):
the agent in the team on the restructure, which it
was twenty years ago, and I had one, I'm not
going to name them, one of the top in terms
of magazine cap curse me out because we had a
player on his team where we restructure the year before.
You to me, I'm like, I'm doing you a favor.
I don't want to do you another favor, so why
need something in return, like more money or something exaggerated
(15:15):
payment schedule? Otherwise it wasn't going to do it, and
he cursed me out over that. Teams to avoid that,
it started putting automatic conversion rights in the contract where
they can convert however much money they want, and then
it's considered a breach of contract if the player doesn't
actually cute a new contract which has the terms of
(15:36):
the restructure. Now, in Grady Jared's case, you chop them
down to his minimum based salary's night ninety. But so
say a million for a round number, you can take
twelve five converted in the salary cap in the signing bones,
she creates six point two five million a capri him
Jake Matthews under contract three years, his minimum based salaries
one point seventy five million. You can take a little
(15:58):
over eleven nine that into um signing bonus. You can
save almost eight million. Dion Jones under contract through twenty
twenty three. Seven point two you could convert, so that's four.
So that's uh four point eight. You could create two guys.
I wouldn't touch Matt Ryan Julio Jones. Even though Matt
(16:18):
Ryan has the second highest cap number in the league,
soon to be the highest because Ben Roethlisberger's number is
gonna come down one way or another. Matt Ryan's is
just under forty one million. You've restructured that three times,
So I wouldn't touch that. Julio Jones top wide receiver
cap numbered all over twenty three million. I would kind
(16:38):
of leave that alone as well. If you if you
have to, if you're gonna restructure, you're one of those guys.
You don't do the full restructure where you take the
base salary down to the absolute minimum. You would do
it at a different level. So Joel, I'm gonna break
it down even more simpler it. What I'm hearing from
you is that you know the rookies that you draft
(16:59):
in the guys that you draft in those guys, they're
going to get their paid right. And then you're talking
about not touching Matt Ryan and Julio Jones because of
their high high cap number and you just don't want
to spread that out. You're talking about the guys that
are kind of in the middle class, so to speak,
in the middle in either working with them on the
(17:21):
solve here is to do it quickly as possible. Either
you're gonna have to make tough decisions and part ways
or restructure some of these guys and other guys are
gonna have to just either take one year deals bet
on themselves, and it's not like they're gonna find a
lot of other takers because everybody's kind of in this situation.
Does that make sense, Yeah, that's fair. It also means
(17:43):
in free agency, even though the Saints one year when
they had no cap room, came out of nowhere and
signed Jared's bird maybe nice paid safety, they did it
in a manner where you had a small first year
cap number ballooning second year cap number. So if the
Falcons create enough cap room where at least start a
new league year they're compliant, they could sign one of
(18:07):
these guys under that approach. Also, the Falcons use a
contract structure which has now started to come back in vogue,
which had really gone away, which is a signing bonus
option bonus structure where you have a signing bonus which
gets pro rated over five years, and then the second
year you have an option bonus to exercise and option year,
(18:29):
which would be the last year the contract. You pro
rate the option bonus like a signing bonus, and that's
going to keep the second cap year number low as well.
The problem with that is, and this goes back to
a guy several years ago, it was useful Sam Baker,
and Sam Baker didn't pan out, and when you released him,
you had a ton of dead money because you have
(18:51):
multiple sets of pro ration. You've got the signing bonus
pro ration and the option bonus pro ration. That type
of structure was used with Mattiance contract and then they
restructured it three times. So that's why his cap number
is so high, and why if you cut Matt Ryan,
which nobody's thinking about doing, it would add to the
cap And even if you traded him before June second,
(19:13):
it goes from being almost forty one million to almost
forty four point five million in terms of the dead
money is more than the cap hit. One guy to
me this interesting to take a look at is Dante Fowler.
He's got a cap number about eighteen five. He's got
six million of his twenty twenty base salary already guaranteed.
It's thirteen million is a total base, the other seven
(19:35):
millions fully guaranteed fifth day of the twenty one league year.
He's a guy that if he's on the open market,
doesn't do well. If you cut him conventionally, he doesn't
make a lot of sense because he's got the guarantee.
Then you got the bonus pro ration accelerating from twenty
twenty two hitting twenty twenty one. That it's not worth
your time. You either have to make him what's called
(19:57):
a post June one designation, where you carry him on
the cap until June second, even though he's released, and
then at that point you can remove the seven million
that's not guaranteed and you delay the pro ration from
twenty twenty two from hitting the cap in twenty twenty one,
(20:18):
you pick up almost eleven million a cap room. That way,
I might go another route. Instead, I would approach him
about a pay cut, because he's got the six million.
No matter what, if he gets cut based on what
he did last year, he's not going to get a
ton of money in an environment where the cap is
going to go down. And also knowing that he has
(20:40):
a six million, he's not looking most likely to chase money.
He's looking at opportunity. So I would try to get
him to take a pay cut anywhere between five and
seven million personally, and then he could have the opportunity
to make it back through incentives where if he's sacking
the quarterback at a pretty pretty high rate, he can
be made hall all right, So you're just doing with
(21:02):
the basic math and who knows what kind of decisions
Terry Fontino, the new GM is gonna make. He came
from the Saints, as you know. But if you're a
Falcons fan and you've got a basic understanding of the
cap and you understand, okay, Joel Corey just said, can't
touch Matt Ryan or Julio Jones, so you could, but
it's there's a cost. Eventually, you know, you could do
(21:26):
different deals where you can spread it out, but eventually
got to pay the bills and so how do they
have success in twenty twenty one? And is this an
opportunity for Terry font No. You know, you come in
and you've got the number four pick, and you know
you've got to put your imprint on this team, Joel,
and you've got six picks plus some compensed story picks.
(21:49):
How do you fix this situation? How do you put
your stamp on this team to have success in twenty
twenty one? And beyond what do you think in you know,
without going into you know, a dissertation about you know
all these you know, different things and pass and options
they can have. What what do you think makes sense? Uh?
(22:11):
You know for them as they kind of head into
free agency, the draft and and and look at this
roster um to to to be able to have depth?
Can they have depth to be able to um? Do
they trade down? Do they get more draft picks? Is
this an opportunity where you maybe try to make some
(22:33):
moves and acquire more picks? Because if you hit on
draft picks, that's that's the ultimate contract. Right you get
those guys and uh, you know it, you tell me
so and and do the if they do or do
not have sex set success in twenty twenty one? What what?
How long will it take? Realistically, you think, well, you
(22:55):
guys have been kind of stuck in neutral the past
couple of years, where you're are better than the record indicates.
You have to pretty much assume Tampa Bay is gonna
win the NFC South. The Saints are a wild card
because that team is going to be dramatically different, and
Drew Brees is um retiring as well, So I don't
(23:16):
think you're winning division. UM. The way Matt Ryan and
Julio Jones's contracts and cap numbers are structured, you're probably
keeping them at least for one more year. Um, You're
not gonna be able to make substantial editions through free
agency unless you're able to get guys when it's a
(23:38):
complete buyer's market that's going to be higher quality talent
than would normally be available to take one year deals
and for bargain basement rates. And you go there, you're
right about you think that's going to happen. You think
there's going to be You think the Cape if the
Capers less, Yeah, you're gonna see guys doing that left
and right. Then it's going to become I'm trying to
(24:00):
position myself for the best possible way for me to
have success to hit the market in twenty twenty two.
So you did touch on one thing which is very important.
If you have a low cost quarterback, then you can
amass talent around him. You have a number four pick.
Matt Ryan's no spring chicken. He's on the back nine
(24:22):
of his career. So that's your opportunity to have a
successor in waiting. It can take over in twenty twenty
two because nowadays you play quarterbacks sooner rather than later,
or possibly if the season's going terribly, you trade him
before the trading deadline, and that way, after June one,
(24:46):
the pro ration from future years doesn't hit the cap
in twenty twenty one and you go from there. I
have a radical idea of how you hit the reset
button this year. It's never been done and it will
require a lot of patients. I'll explain it. Um. There's
one ready made team that's looking for a quarterback to me,
(25:07):
Indiapolis Colts that a quarterback older than Matt Ryan this
year in Philip Rivers. Now knowing that if you traded
him before June second, that you're pretty good with that
old quarterback. Yeah, they did, probably would have better if
they went after an older quarterback that they didn't chase
at all. Well, who won a super Bowl. But that's
a different story. But if you trade Matt Ryan before
(25:30):
June second, it's going to increase the cap, So you're
gonna put about four million, four point five million on
the cap that way. If you trade him before, then
if we have an unconventional offseason like we had last year,
then there's no OTAs, there's no mini camp. So what
would Matt Ryan be missing on a new team. Not
(25:52):
all that much compared to what you'd have in a
normal year. So you require a lot of patients. But
if Indianapolis doesn't get their veteran quarterback, and then maybe
post June one, June second, that's the trade he goes
to Indy. You don't have all the acceleration from the
(26:15):
massive bonus pro ration from the multiple restructures hit the
cap in twenty twenty one. That's a twenty twenty two
cap charge, I'll be about twenty six million. You only
have the seventeen nine A pro ration this year. You
pick up twenty three million a cap room because you're
not paying a salary and go from there. That's just
the radical extreme idea. You never see eighteen teams talk
(26:38):
about a trade or have something in place and then
delay it for cap purposes. So that's just food for thought.
I don't see that realistically happening, but you never know.
If any doesn't. If Indianapolis is still looking for a quarterback,
well better quarterback, come, well, what are the teams out
there that need a quarterback? You've got in New England?
Possibly right, possibly, yep, you've got Chicago, right, Yeah, they're
(27:03):
they're well, someone's gonna presumably end up with Carson Wentz.
I always thought Indianapolis made the most sense. And if
I'm Indianapolis, I'm insisting on a package deal to get
that done. If you want more compensation, if you're looking
for significant compensation, I'm like, hey, let's send his best
target over there, who they already have already made successor
(27:24):
in Philly. Four um zach Ertz and Carson Wentz go
to Indy and I pick. I don't know Carson Wentz
after what I saw, but Frank Wright had success with them.
Um Bears scream quarterback, The Redskins scream veteran quarterback. Alice Smith.
Isn't the answers great comeback? Um, never thought we'd see
(27:46):
that happen, but yeah, they're limited with him at quarterback. Um,
we'll see what happens with this. This the Shaun Watson thing.
I wouldn't trade him. Um, if I'm Nick Casario, to me,
he's gonna sit significant time. But for me to h
consider trading him, so we'll see how that goes. Well,
I'll just I'll say this too. What if you say,
(28:08):
you know what, hey, Matt Ryan, look look at the
production from Matt Ryan. You know, ten, ten seasons, four
thousand plush yards. What if you bolster that offensive line
like ahead in my mock draft today. What if you say,
you know what, quarterbacks are playing longer they are? What
if you say, you know what, let's do. Is it
realistic to restructure Matt and say he's our guy for
(28:31):
the next five five years? Do you say money that way? Yeah,
he's with thirty six now, um, three five, then you
gonna yeah, they are playing longer. I don't know if
he wants to be Tom Brady Aaron Rodgers in terms
of I don't know either, but yeah, yeah he is,
but his cap number next year is like forty one
(28:53):
point six millions, So that's gonna be in albatross around
your your cap as well because of the more ule restructions.
You've done three already. You keep doing it, you're kicking
a can down the road. Then you're committing to him
to be your quarterback, giving him significant leverage to get
a new contract because you'll need to do it to
lower the cap room. Tom connon ain't taking a discount.
(29:14):
So whatever the top of the market is, if it's
forty five, you every time you sign him, you make
him the first or second highest paid guy. So you're
you're committing to paying a quarterback who at some point
starts to have diminishing returns. I know guys are playing later,
but Ben Roethlisberger on the elbow was part of the problem.
It wasn't the same guy pre surgery. Rivers can't throw
(29:37):
the ball deep anymore, so retired at thirty seven. Brady's
an anomaly. So you got the number four pick, That
might be the time to get a quarterback. If you're
not gonna take the quarterback at number four, then you
trade down and get more picks auction that pick off
to the highest bidder who wants a quarterback and try
(29:59):
to recoup draft capital to try to rebuild your rosh release.
It's one of those two plays to me. Yeah, or
you could just trade down a bit because there's there's
depending on who you talk to, there's four guys that
have first round grades, four quarterbacks. I don't know how
soon they're gonna go. Yeah, if you think that, if
you think there, if it's you think it's Trevor Lawrence,
(30:19):
and then you can stick the names in a hat
and pick one. Yeah, you trade down because you accumulate
additional picks and still get a guy where you're like,
what's the difference between Trey Lance Zach Wilson justin fields
and we'll say mac Jones. If you don't think there's
much of a difference between them. Yeah, that's another that's
another route you could go as well. All right, Well,
(30:40):
speaking of cap issues, New Orleans Saints in quarterbacks, the
New Orleans Saints have a lot of questions Joel who's
their quarterback going to be? Drew Brees has not announced
officially he's retired, but it looks oh he's retiring. He
made a key made a move his contract which I thought, yeah,
you restructured, right, if he was going to retire, his
cap number is gonna be twenty five million. Yeah, so
(31:03):
they renegotiated where they dropped the space salary to his
league minimum one point as one point seventy five million.
You only do that if you're going to retire, because
what you're trying, Yeah, what you're trying to do is
you don't want to have all the bonus pro ration
from the voiding years hit the cap in twenty one.
So you carry him on the roster until June second,
(31:24):
and you can delay the pro ration until next year.
So that was done for that reason. You have Taysom
Hill under contract. I wouldn't have given him an extension.
You could have played on his first round restricted tender.
And seems like Sean Hayton has an affinity for Jamis Winston,
so it's probably gonna be one of those two guys.
Because I've never seen a situation like the Saints in
(31:47):
terms of the salary cap issues that this is as
unprecedented that even if you did add the cap go
up tune to ten million, they were still going to
have to make multiple moves in terms of strecturing contracts
and cutting people, and they kicked the can down the
road with the best of them, so, um, it was yeah,
I don't expect. Yeah, they talk about having to pay
(32:11):
the bills here when you look, I look, I'm just
looking at spow track. But they are thirty two negative
seventy million, seventy point seven seventy one million, let's say,
um of cap space. Yeah, it's really it's really ninety
four because there's I don't know how it got reported
(32:33):
this way, but Jared Cook has a real year in
twenty twenty one. They have to physically cut him, whereas
I know some people have thought it was a voiding year,
so there's no cap charge for him. But he had
he had a roster bonus which had an escalator. So
right now he's got a twenty two million dollars cap number.
(32:55):
When you cut him, you're gonna pick up you gonna
have two million of dead money. So you're picking up
twenty on a cap space for cutting Jared Cook. But
that's not reflected in what you're looking at. What are
they gonna do? Well, I mean, what if it's the
worst cap situation in the league, what do you think
they end up doing? If you just Oh, they're gonna
go through multiple restructures, like they're gonna pick up like
(33:17):
ten million a cap room from Cameron Jordan add devoidable
years so they can stretch out the pro ration over
five years. People five years. People have talked about restructuring. Yeah,
Michael Thomas where they were gonna trade him. That adds
to the cap plus. If you don't have Drew Brees,
why are you gonna get rid of a weapon? Because
when he's healthy, he's great. So you're gonna restructure him.
(33:37):
You're gonna pick up nine million there, you're gonna restructure Chimera. No, actually,
he doesn't really give him that much. You don't restructure him.
You restructure Andrews Pete. You're gonna cut multiple players, Kwan Alexander.
You get thirteen million for cutting him, generous. Jenkins has
probably gone. Some of your mid tier players like Malcolm
(33:58):
Brown are probably gone. So here can I see multiple restructures,
multiple releases, and we're gonna see how good of a
coach Sean Payton is. Yeah, I would not want to
be there GM. Mickey Loomis has got a lot, a
lot of decisions to make here, Joel, what is the
(34:18):
worst when you look at some of these these bad
cap situations, what's the worst one that you've ever seen?
Well until this year, well this year it was the
two thousand and two Jacksonville Jaguars. And teams fall into
a trap where if you think you can win a
Super Bowl, don't worry about tomorrow and you're worried about today,
(34:42):
so your moves are made for the short term. That's
back when Jacksonville had a lot of stars on their
team kept restructuring contracts. They were saved by one thing,
the expansion draft. Texans took more lable guys off of
them that they took Gary Walker, Seth Pain, and Tony Bisselli.
(35:05):
And if I correct, the bonus pro ration when you
took someone in the expansion draft went to the Texans,
so you didn't have the type of dead money you
would have. And then they cut a client of hours
who from a performance standpoint didn't deserve to be cut
Keenan McCardell ninety catch eleven hundred yard season. They cut him.
(35:28):
And back then there were no post unione designations. You
had to wait until June second to get cut, and
in that secondary market free agency. Back then, the money
already dried up. He went to Tampa and got a
Super Bowl ring. But you don't get rid of a
ninety catch eleven hundred yard guy if you've managed capwell.
So that's probably the worst one I've seen. The Raiders
(35:48):
had a pretty bad one, and Reggie McKenzie first got
there because I don't think Al Davis was thinking long term.
He's thinking, hey, uh, I need to win now, and
he had like fifty five million and dead money one
year trying to clean up the Raiders cap situation to
get them in a position where they could go forward,
and did get them make them competitive a couple of
(36:10):
years later later after that. It's just a situation where
you know, I mean, obviously you're not making these deals,
but when you're a team, I guess if you feel
like your window is right there and you feel like
you've got a shot, I guess that's it, right. You
just feel like you know what we're going all in
and you know, and then you end up making these
(36:32):
deals where you gotta rob Peter to pay Paul and
and then you got to pay them all. Yeah, and
you can outrun it when the or maybe mostly outrun
it when the cap goes up six seven eight percent
each year. But when we have this unusual situation where
the CAP's gonna go down, that's your problem. Then the
(36:53):
chicken comes on. Chickens come home to roost where the
credit card bill is due and you have to pay.
Philadelphia has been in that when now mode and their
second worst situation. Even though they've got some logical exit
points with some deals they they weren't counting on Carson
Wentz being a guy they'd have to trade. That deal
will set up where you'd restructure it if he did
(37:14):
what they thought he would be. But now they're gonna
have the biggest individual dead money charge in league history
of thirty three point eight million for trade versus like
a thirty four point three million dollars captain non versa.
He would save eight hundred fifty thousand dollars, but still
that's unusable cap space. But I never thought he'd be
traded this year, but that appears to be what will happen.
(37:38):
Matthew Stafford goes to La Lions get a starting quarterback,
They get a haul of draft picks. Rumors reports are
the Eagles want that kind of deal. You're gonna see
a lot of quarterbacks right move around. There's the whole
Deshaun Watson situation down there. I believe I see it.
When he's traded. I don't think nick nick nick kissario one.
(38:00):
It's his first major move to be I traded a
franchise quarterback who's twenty five. When the ideas you try
to find those guys and keep them. And I don't
think he wants to set the precedent that if you
you can get what you want as a player, if
you just scruntled, that's a factor that I think, Yeah,
(38:21):
people are underrating him, not wanting to set that precedent
for other people to be able to come in the
door afterwards and go, hey, if if I'm happy, I
can force my way out. I know from personal experience
when you got a new regime that is a difficult,
difficult obstacle to deal with when you're trying to get
a new contract and a holdout situation or trying to
(38:43):
force a trade. All right, well let's wrap this up.
I'm just gonna put you on the spot here. Thumbs up, yes, no,
thumbs up, thumbs down, wherever you want to do it.
Do they do they get a deal done before the
new League year. You think, Um, you mean TV money,
TV deals. Yep. I'm gonna say yes because I think
the owners a motivate to try to get it done.
(39:04):
Does Carson Wentz get traded? Uh? Yeah, but Philly is
gonna have to come off that Matthew Stafford Hall because
part of that was the the Rams were given away
Jared Goff. That was more that was that was part
of the brock Osweiler type thing. Here take him, We'll
give you a second round pick. So you're not getting
Matthew Stafford Hall. You have real estate expectations. You can
(39:26):
trade him. Who's the quarterback going to be in New Orleans?
Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, he stay stays, Julio Johnson stays
for another year because you got Calvin Ridley, Who's who
proved this Ye, you could be a number one. So
I think maybe a farewell season for both Matt Ryan
(39:47):
and Julio Jones. In less it's a very successful season.
Wow woo. Number four. You're you're Terry Fontineau. What do
you do? Uh? In what respect? Take take a pick?
Do you do your draft? Best player of Valbo or
you trade down? Oh? And what you just said I'm
(40:08):
taking mine. If I think the quarterbacks are all equal,
then I trade down and snag want to get additional picks.
If there's one guy I like more than any others um,
then I'm taking that guy unless he's gone, um a
pick ahead of me, three or something. Okay, I could
determine if another quarterback. If the quarterback you want is
gone by a team who picks ahead of you, then
(40:28):
that could change what your philosophy is in the in
the draft. Okay, So you're saying you're Matt, Ryan, Julio, Jones, Gray,
Jared are all going to be here. You trade down,
you get some picks. New head coach. You saw what
Arthur Smith did with Ryan Tannehill and how he adapts
to his players. You got Terry Fontineau wanting to put
his imprint on this team. Do you think the Falcons
(40:50):
can be competitive and push for a division title? If
that's the case, no, it's the Bucks. Bucks are gonna
win the division. Bucks take it again. Yeah, I don't
think it's gonna be as competitive as it was this
year because New Orleans they're gonna take a step back.
So I think it's really as long as Tom Brady's upright.
They're winning the division, all right. Joel, awesome to have you.
(41:15):
We got to have you back when uh well, once,
once the dust settles here and we get through that draft,
I'd love to have you back on man oh anytime.
Appreciate you having me on
Falcons fans, heck, NFL fans everywhere. I am so excited
to have today's guest on. He's a former sports agent
who helped found correct me if I'm wrong. Premier Sports
and Entertainment represents coaches and athletes. He's represented a ton
of athletes, including Seaquille O'Neill, Akimbo LaJuan, Ronnie Lott, and
(00:23):
probably a ton of other NFL players. I know he
has and I don't know how many former Falcons he's represented.
We'll get into that in a minute. But he's appeared
on ESPN, CBS. I worked with him at CBS Sports.
He writes, agents take and he's been on countless radio
shows across the country. Ladies and Gentlemen, Falcons Nation, I
(00:43):
am so stoked to introduce my friend, former colleague, Joel Corey. Joel,
great to see you, man, Hey, thanks for having me.
Good you look good man. Where are you these days? Oh?
Sonny Las Vegas, Nevada, where it is going to be
seven degrees today? Wow? Yeah, rubber in all right? So
coming up. If you live in the Deep South, it
(01:04):
never gets that cold. I remember when I was when
I was at Emory, they canceled class once because of
the forecast of snow. You know, I'm like, wait until
it actually the snows. Growing up in growing up in Nashville,
we actually had to have snow before high school got canceled. Well,
you remember, I was down in for a Lauderdale CBS,
(01:24):
So coming up here is like, you know, coming up
to the north. Yeah, that is true. That is true.
So well, let's let's get to the topics we're gonna cover.
We're gonna cover the looming salary cap. It looks like
a reduction. Uh, We're gonna talk about the Falcon salary cap,
Joel and how that's gonna impact roster decisions. I hope
you've been studying up on the Falcons roster. I know you.
(01:47):
I know you've been writing about a lot of different teams.
And then if we have time, I want to talk
about the uh, the New Orleans Saints, because you know,
Falcons fans feel pretty bad about, you know, the impending
gloom and doom. The salary cap of the Saints actually
have kind of a worse situation. Look, let's just jump
right into it. Let's just get right into the salary cap.
(02:07):
And there's so much to unpack joll. But if you could,
and I'm not saying cliff notes, but what is the
big issue right now with the salary cap as far
as this a possible reduction, and what's it mean for
just teams in general. Well, revenues went down drastically because
(02:29):
of the coronavirus pandemic. There were no stands in the
fans for fans and stands for the most part, and
that reversed the first time. So local revenue is approximately
thirty five of league wide revenue, so when you don't
have that, that's a major piece of the pie. So
the NFL and NFLPA in the preseason agreed to limit
(02:52):
the losses for this year, at least how they count
cap wise, the salary cap flour one hundred seventy five
million losses, maybe more than that, but the cap won't
be any lower than one hundred and seventy five million.
If they have to, they'll borrow from future years and
spread those losses out over twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three,
and twenty twenty four if necessary. The cap right now
(03:16):
is one hundred ninety eight point two million pre pandemic.
The planning the teams had was conservatively, the cap would
go up roughly six seven percent to the two hundred
and ten million dollars range. So you're talking salary cap
planning and teams planning three year snapshots of two hundred
and ten million to now you're dealing with worst case
(03:36):
scenario one hundred and seventy five million. If the NFL
can get the new media rights deals done before the
league year starts on March seventeenth to twenty twenty one
league year, that can be a game changer, and the
NFL would feel more comfortable borrowing from future years and
(03:58):
keeping the cap is close to remaining flat is possible,
knowing the infusion of revenue would be certain. If you
don't have new TV two deals done, then expect the
cap to be one hundred eighty million, maybe one eighty
five at best, which is terrible for players because teams
(04:19):
since they were playing, we're talking about how much how
much drop per team with that twenty some million. Yeah,
you're talking about planning for two ten initially, and you're
gonna be at one eighty So you're talking thirty million
below what your expectation is. That's gonna be a buyer's market.
Teams are gonna have to cut players they wouldn't otherwise
(04:42):
cut to be capped compliant, which means that there will
be a great amount of supply exceeding demand in free agency.
So you don't want to be a free agent unless
you're one of the top guys don't get paid regardless,
but everyone else it's going to be a bleak Outlook.
(05:02):
If a team asks you to take a pay cut
under those circumstances, you may want to consider it, because
a burden a hand maybe worth two in the bush
this year. Hopefully everything gets back to normal in the
twenty twenty one season. You have fans in the stands
the whole year, and the Super Bowl is a sellout
like it always is. And in twenty twenty two then
(05:26):
the cap can start going back up. TV deals should
be done by then and it'll be business as usual.
So if I'm a free agent, I may take a
one year deal if I'm a younger guy, if I
can't find the money I want in a long term
deal and try to hit it again in twenty twenty two.
Just unfortunate that you would happen to have an expiring
contract in this year. If you didn't have a great year. So, yeah,
(05:49):
a lot of guys are going to have to bet
on themselves, is what you're saying, right, Yes, more so
than would in the past. Yeah, what do you talk
to a lot of gms and a lot of front
office people. Still, what is your sense if you had
to make a prediction right now of what you think
will happen? What you know with the TV deal and
(06:09):
what you think that that number is? You know, what's
the solve? What do you think? What do you think happens?
You know, based on your what you're here, and what
you think. Well, nobody the TV deals the unknown variable,
nobody knows are going to get done. But some teams
are using one seventy five the floor for planning now,
some are using one eighty. But teams aren't using anything
(06:31):
remotely close to the current level one hundred ninety eight
point two million for their cap planning for the twenty
twenty one season. And I'm planning for worst case. You're saying, yes, well,
you always plan conservatively. If you're running a team salary cap.
You can't go, hey, the CAP's gonna go up ten percent,
and then if it doesn't, you've been planning for ten
percent you're kind of screwed. One thing which it is
(06:52):
going to affect is the later that the NFL sets
a salary cap because typically projections supplementarily are made into December,
we have a conservative range where the cap is, and
then into February when the combine takes place. Typically, which
it isn't like it would normally in Annapolis, is when
the cap is finally set early March, so everyone knows
(07:14):
what they're doing. The franchise and transition tag numbers are
a percentage of the cap, so you won't know the
exact numbers until the twenty twenty one salary cap is set.
But regardless, since the cap is expected to go down,
those numbers are going to drop. Like I'll use an
example for one, Derrick Henry franchise tag was ten point
(07:37):
two seven eight million this year is a running back.
Now if the cap is at the floor of one
hundred and seventy five million, then that number is going
to be eight point four because the way the franchise
tags work that it's the average of the top five
salaries at a position over five year period where you were.
It's a complicated for me, and more so than it
(07:59):
was under your cbas where you take to some of
these the franchise tag numbers of past five years or
some of the salary caps, divide those two numbers into
each other, multiplied by what the salary cap is, and
that's what the number is for position. So if the
cap drops, those numbers are going to drop dramatically. Yeah. Wow,
(08:19):
who so I can't Obviously it behooves everybody to get
this TV deal then, And I've read on Pro football
talk in different places that there they And then you
tweeted out something yesterday, that CNBC story about how this
could be a game changer, this new deal. Correct. Yeah,
because if I haven't seen television or media rights deals
(08:41):
go down to day that happens, God forbid the sport
for if it's a cap sport for that, because then
everybody's salaries go down. The expectation is there's going to
be a substantial increase in media rights deals because you
look at the highest rated TV programs. Even though the
Super Bowl number viewership was down, the ratings for down.
It's dominated by NFL telecasts. Use ratings are down across
(09:07):
the board because of chord cutting. Primetime TV isn't what
it used to be. But one thing you can count
on to generate ratings is the NFL. So why do
you think it's going to go up? Because there's other
players in the game, and because there's talk of going
seventeen games less preseason, and then ESPN wants to be
from what I read, ESPN wants to in ABC. ESPN
(09:29):
ABC wants to get in that Super Bowl rotation, right
is So is that kind of the next factor? Yeah,
that also helps anytime you're going to add more inventory,
extra game to add more inventory by increasing the playoffs,
and if you have a party which is on the
outside looking in wanting again, that's a league's dream. You've
seen the last round of baseball rights go up. The
(09:52):
NBA's went up dramatically. The NFL is still the ratings king,
So the anticipation is that they're still they're going to
go up dramatically as well. Deal's gonna get done before
the league the new league gear. Your guess is as
good as mine. People thought they might come on during
the regular season. I have no inside knowledge about that.
(10:12):
So if they get done, that's great for the cap.
If not, then it's gonna be a year you where
you don't want to be a player unless you're a
marquee free agent. Yeah, how big too was it to
get that ten year CBA deal done before, you know,
before the pandemic hit and everything like that. Well as
it was hitting. Well, the funny thing is that thing
(10:34):
barely passed by the players because there was a faction
of players and Aaron Rodgers, who was a Green based
player repping on the player rep board, was very vocal
in his opposition that he didn't think that the players
are getting enough to give up a seventeenth game now
nobody knew the pandemic was coming. I would hate to
see what the situation would have looked like if we
(10:56):
played the twenty twenty season in the last year the
CB under two thousand eleven CBA, and then they're gonna
have to go and negotiate a new CBA in a
pandemic environment. I would imagine there'd be a work stoppage
and there would be a lockout like in two eleven,
because the owners would use the pandemic is a reason
(11:17):
to extract concessions from players that they've always wanted. In
two eleven, they clawed back a lot of stuff from
the two thousand and six CBA, which they thought was
two player friendly, and I think you would see the
same dynamic again, or maybe the players would have a
little more resolve just because they would feel that the
owners are unfairly or unjustifiably using the pandemic to try
(11:41):
to rectify or remedy a situation that didn't necessarily need
to be remedied. So some players weren't all that happy
about the new deal, but given what it could have
been in this environment, yeah, it worked out well for
the players under the circumstances that we're going to be
that we're unforeseen at the time. Yeah, thank goodness, we're
(12:02):
not in that situation. All right. Well, let's segue right
into the Atlanta Falconstrol. How bad is it? I get
questions all the time, and that's why I'm really exciting.
How long have I been asking you to come on?
I think since what seventeen since I got here? Right? Oh?
So long? Come on? It feels like it. But how
bad is it? You know? I Falcons fans you get
(12:24):
you know, you know how it is with fandom. Some
of them just overreact, knee jerk and you know, but
it's not great. Bob, what's the Falcons situation in a nutshell,
if you you know going into this right now, it's
one of the worst in the league. It's probably bottom five,
but there are a couple of teams which are way worse. Um,
(12:45):
if the cap is gonna be one eighty, the Falcons
are roughly thirty two million over the cap. They're ways
for you can try to create cap room. There's some
obvious guys you would release, like Ricardo Alan, James Carpenter,
Alan Bailey the ones that come to mind about releasing.
And if you release Ricardo Allen, you're gonna pick up
(13:05):
six point two five million a caper. If you released
James Carpenter that's about four million. Allan Bailey gets you
about four point five million. There's some obvious guys to restructure.
Jake Matthews has the highest offensive line cap number the
NFL at twenty point two million. Grady Jarrett highest offensive
(13:25):
line cap number in the NFL. Grady Jarrett's number four
at defensive tackles at twenty point eighty three three million,
and then Dion Jones. It's got a twelve point six
three million dollars cap number. That's another one that screams
salary restructure. By restructure, I mean you're pushing cap obligations
into tomorrow, kicking the can down the road. Where you
(13:46):
take base salary or other salary components like a roster
bonus converted into signing bonus, and you can take the
mount that you convert into signing bonus and pro rated
over the life of the contract. Or if you want
to get it really creative, like the Saints do, you
can start adding voidable voting years to the contract so
you can stretch out, stretch out the pro ration for
(14:07):
over more years, create more cap room because the voting
years count for pro ration purposes. But there's a cost
to that because then you're gonna have more dead money
when those years void. Now, if you're talking Grady Jared,
he's under contract through twenty twenty two, so you could
take like twelve and a half million to a minimum
(14:28):
base salary. At least you don't have to drop it
down to a minimum based salary. You can take a
restructure and cut the base salary to whatever you want.
And the reason I say you can cut to wherever
you want is in these contracts, over the past a
decade or so, teams have inserted in the addendums, automatic
salary conversion rights, so it's no longer a negotiation between
(14:51):
the agent in the team on the restructure, which it
was twenty years ago, and I had one, I'm not
going to name them, one of the top in terms
of magazine cap curse me out because we had a
player on his team where we restructure the year before.
You to me, I'm like, I'm doing you a favor.
I don't want to do you another favor, so why
need something in return, like more money or something exaggerated
(15:15):
payment schedule? Otherwise it wasn't going to do it, and
he cursed me out over that. Teams to avoid that,
it started putting automatic conversion rights in the contract where
they can convert however much money they want, and then
it's considered a breach of contract if the player doesn't
actually cute a new contract which has the terms of
(15:36):
the restructure. Now, in Grady Jared's case, you chop them
down to his minimum based salary's night ninety. But so
say a million for a round number, you can take
twelve five converted in the salary cap in the signing bones,
she creates six point two five million a capri him
Jake Matthews under contract three years, his minimum based salaries
one point seventy five million. You can take a little
(15:58):
over eleven nine that into um signing bonus. You can
save almost eight million. Dion Jones under contract through twenty
twenty three. Seven point two you could convert, so that's four.
So that's uh four point eight. You could create two guys.
I wouldn't touch Matt Ryan Julio Jones. Even though Matt
(16:18):
Ryan has the second highest cap number in the league,
soon to be the highest because Ben Roethlisberger's number is
gonna come down one way or another. Matt Ryan's is
just under forty one million. You've restructured that three times,
So I wouldn't touch that. Julio Jones top wide receiver
cap numbered all over twenty three million. I would kind
(16:38):
of leave that alone as well. If you if you
have to, if you're gonna restructure, you're one of those guys.
You don't do the full restructure where you take the
base salary down to the absolute minimum. You would do
it at a different level. So Joel, I'm gonna break
it down even more simpler it. What I'm hearing from
you is that you know the rookies that you draft
(16:59):
in the guys that you draft in those guys, they're
going to get their paid right. And then you're talking
about not touching Matt Ryan and Julio Jones because of
their high high cap number and you just don't want
to spread that out. You're talking about the guys that
are kind of in the middle class, so to speak,
in the middle in either working with them on the
(17:21):
solve here is to do it quickly as possible. Either
you're gonna have to make tough decisions and part ways
or restructure some of these guys and other guys are
gonna have to just either take one year deals bet
on themselves, and it's not like they're gonna find a
lot of other takers because everybody's kind of in this situation.
Does that make sense, Yeah, that's fair. It also means
(17:43):
in free agency, even though the Saints one year when
they had no cap room, came out of nowhere and
signed Jared's bird maybe nice paid safety, they did it
in a manner where you had a small first year
cap number ballooning second year cap number. So if the
Falcons create enough cap room where at least start a
new league year they're compliant, they could sign one of
(18:07):
these guys under that approach. Also, the Falcons use a
contract structure which has now started to come back in vogue,
which had really gone away, which is a signing bonus
option bonus structure where you have a signing bonus which
gets pro rated over five years, and then the second
year you have an option bonus to exercise and option year,
(18:29):
which would be the last year the contract. You pro
rate the option bonus like a signing bonus, and that's
going to keep the second cap year number low as well.
The problem with that is, and this goes back to
a guy several years ago, it was useful Sam Baker,
and Sam Baker didn't pan out, and when you released him,
you had a ton of dead money because you have
(18:51):
multiple sets of pro ration. You've got the signing bonus
pro ration and the option bonus pro ration. That type
of structure was used with Mattiance contract and then they
restructured it three times. So that's why his cap number
is so high, and why if you cut Matt Ryan,
which nobody's thinking about doing, it would add to the
cap And even if you traded him before June second,
(19:13):
it goes from being almost forty one million to almost
forty four point five million in terms of the dead
money is more than the cap hit. One guy to
me this interesting to take a look at is Dante Fowler.
He's got a cap number about eighteen five. He's got
six million of his twenty twenty base salary already guaranteed.
It's thirteen million is a total base, the other seven
(19:35):
millions fully guaranteed fifth day of the twenty one league year.
He's a guy that if he's on the open market,
doesn't do well. If you cut him conventionally, he doesn't
make a lot of sense because he's got the guarantee.
Then you got the bonus pro ration accelerating from twenty
twenty two hitting twenty twenty one. That it's not worth
your time. You either have to make him what's called
(19:57):
a post June one designation, where you carry him on
the cap until June second, even though he's released, and
then at that point you can remove the seven million
that's not guaranteed and you delay the pro ration from
twenty twenty two from hitting the cap in twenty twenty one,
(20:18):
you pick up almost eleven million a cap room. That way,
I might go another route. Instead, I would approach him
about a pay cut, because he's got the six million.
No matter what, if he gets cut based on what
he did last year, he's not going to get a
ton of money in an environment where the cap is
going to go down. And also knowing that he has
(20:40):
a six million, he's not looking most likely to chase money.
He's looking at opportunity. So I would try to get
him to take a pay cut anywhere between five and
seven million personally, and then he could have the opportunity
to make it back through incentives where if he's sacking
the quarterback at a pretty pretty high rate, he can
be made hall all right, So you're just doing with
(21:02):
the basic math and who knows what kind of decisions
Terry Fontino, the new GM is gonna make. He came
from the Saints, as you know. But if you're a
Falcons fan and you've got a basic understanding of the
cap and you understand, okay, Joel Corey just said, can't
touch Matt Ryan or Julio Jones, so you could, but
it's there's a cost. Eventually, you know, you could do
(21:26):
different deals where you can spread it out, but eventually
got to pay the bills and so how do they
have success in twenty twenty one? And is this an
opportunity for Terry font No. You know, you come in
and you've got the number four pick, and you know
you've got to put your imprint on this team, Joel,
and you've got six picks plus some compensed story picks.
(21:49):
How do you fix this situation? How do you put
your stamp on this team to have success in twenty
twenty one? And beyond what do you think in you know,
without going into you know, a dissertation about you know
all these you know, different things and pass and options
they can have. What what do you think makes sense? Uh?
(22:11):
You know for them as they kind of head into
free agency, the draft and and and look at this
roster um to to to be able to have depth?
Can they have depth to be able to um? Do
they trade down? Do they get more draft picks? Is
this an opportunity where you maybe try to make some
(22:33):
moves and acquire more picks? Because if you hit on
draft picks, that's that's the ultimate contract. Right you get
those guys and uh, you know it, you tell me
so and and do the if they do or do
not have sex set success in twenty twenty one? What what?
How long will it take? Realistically, you think, well, you
(22:55):
guys have been kind of stuck in neutral the past
couple of years, where you're are better than the record indicates.
You have to pretty much assume Tampa Bay is gonna
win the NFC South. The Saints are a wild card
because that team is going to be dramatically different, and
Drew Brees is um retiring as well, So I don't
(23:16):
think you're winning division. UM. The way Matt Ryan and
Julio Jones's contracts and cap numbers are structured, you're probably
keeping them at least for one more year. Um, You're
not gonna be able to make substantial editions through free
agency unless you're able to get guys when it's a
(23:38):
complete buyer's market that's going to be higher quality talent
than would normally be available to take one year deals
and for bargain basement rates. And you go there, you're
right about you think that's going to happen. You think
there's going to be You think the Cape if the
Capers less, Yeah, you're gonna see guys doing that left
and right. Then it's going to become I'm trying to
(24:00):
position myself for the best possible way for me to
have success to hit the market in twenty twenty two.
So you did touch on one thing which is very important.
If you have a low cost quarterback, then you can
amass talent around him. You have a number four pick.
Matt Ryan's no spring chicken. He's on the back nine
(24:22):
of his career. So that's your opportunity to have a
successor in waiting. It can take over in twenty twenty
two because nowadays you play quarterbacks sooner rather than later,
or possibly if the season's going terribly, you trade him
before the trading deadline, and that way, after June one,
(24:46):
the pro ration from future years doesn't hit the cap
in twenty twenty one and you go from there. I
have a radical idea of how you hit the reset
button this year. It's never been done and it will
require a lot of patients. I'll explain it. Um. There's
one ready made team that's looking for a quarterback to me,
(25:07):
Indiapolis Colts that a quarterback older than Matt Ryan this
year in Philip Rivers. Now knowing that if you traded
him before June second, that you're pretty good with that
old quarterback. Yeah, they did, probably would have better if
they went after an older quarterback that they didn't chase
at all. Well, who won a super Bowl. But that's
a different story. But if you trade Matt Ryan before
(25:30):
June second, it's going to increase the cap, So you're
gonna put about four million, four point five million on
the cap that way. If you trade him before, then
if we have an unconventional offseason like we had last year,
then there's no OTAs, there's no mini camp. So what
would Matt Ryan be missing on a new team. Not
(25:52):
all that much compared to what you'd have in a
normal year. So you require a lot of patients. But
if Indianapolis doesn't get their veteran quarterback, and then maybe
post June one, June second, that's the trade he goes
to Indy. You don't have all the acceleration from the
(26:15):
massive bonus pro ration from the multiple restructures hit the
cap in twenty twenty one. That's a twenty twenty two
cap charge, I'll be about twenty six million. You only
have the seventeen nine A pro ration this year. You
pick up twenty three million a cap room because you're
not paying a salary and go from there. That's just
the radical extreme idea. You never see eighteen teams talk
(26:38):
about a trade or have something in place and then
delay it for cap purposes. So that's just food for thought.
I don't see that realistically happening, but you never know.
If any doesn't. If Indianapolis is still looking for a quarterback,
well better quarterback, come, well, what are the teams out
there that need a quarterback? You've got in New England?
Possibly right, possibly, yep, you've got Chicago, right, Yeah, they're
(27:03):
they're well, someone's gonna presumably end up with Carson Wentz.
I always thought Indianapolis made the most sense. And if
I'm Indianapolis, I'm insisting on a package deal to get
that done. If you want more compensation, if you're looking
for significant compensation, I'm like, hey, let's send his best
target over there, who they already have already made successor
(27:24):
in Philly. Four um zach Ertz and Carson Wentz go
to Indy and I pick. I don't know Carson Wentz
after what I saw, but Frank Wright had success with them.
Um Bears scream quarterback, The Redskins scream veteran quarterback. Alice Smith.
Isn't the answers great comeback? Um, never thought we'd see
(27:46):
that happen, but yeah, they're limited with him at quarterback. Um,
we'll see what happens with this. This the Shaun Watson thing.
I wouldn't trade him. Um, if I'm Nick Casario, to me,
he's gonna sit significant time. But for me to h
consider trading him, so we'll see how that goes. Well,
I'll just I'll say this too. What if you say,
(28:08):
you know what, hey, Matt Ryan, look look at the
production from Matt Ryan. You know, ten, ten seasons, four
thousand plush yards. What if you bolster that offensive line
like ahead in my mock draft today. What if you say,
you know what, quarterbacks are playing longer they are? What
if you say, you know what, let's do. Is it
realistic to restructure Matt and say he's our guy for
(28:31):
the next five five years? Do you say money that way? Yeah,
he's with thirty six now, um, three five, then you
gonna yeah, they are playing longer. I don't know if
he wants to be Tom Brady Aaron Rodgers in terms
of I don't know either, but yeah, yeah he is,
but his cap number next year is like forty one
(28:53):
point six millions, So that's gonna be in albatross around
your your cap as well because of the more ule restructions.
You've done three already. You keep doing it, you're kicking
a can down the road. Then you're committing to him
to be your quarterback, giving him significant leverage to get
a new contract because you'll need to do it to
lower the cap room. Tom connon ain't taking a discount.
(29:14):
So whatever the top of the market is, if it's
forty five, you every time you sign him, you make
him the first or second highest paid guy. So you're
you're committing to paying a quarterback who at some point
starts to have diminishing returns. I know guys are playing later,
but Ben Roethlisberger on the elbow was part of the problem.
It wasn't the same guy pre surgery. Rivers can't throw
(29:37):
the ball deep anymore, so retired at thirty seven. Brady's
an anomaly. So you got the number four pick, That
might be the time to get a quarterback. If you're
not gonna take the quarterback at number four, then you
trade down and get more picks auction that pick off
to the highest bidder who wants a quarterback and try
(29:59):
to recoup draft capital to try to rebuild your rosh release.
It's one of those two plays to me. Yeah, or
you could just trade down a bit because there's there's
depending on who you talk to, there's four guys that
have first round grades, four quarterbacks. I don't know how
soon they're gonna go. Yeah, if you think that, if
you think there, if it's you think it's Trevor Lawrence,
(30:19):
and then you can stick the names in a hat
and pick one. Yeah, you trade down because you accumulate
additional picks and still get a guy where you're like,
what's the difference between Trey Lance Zach Wilson justin fields
and we'll say mac Jones. If you don't think there's
much of a difference between them. Yeah, that's another that's
another route you could go as well. All right, Well,
(30:40):
speaking of cap issues, New Orleans Saints in quarterbacks, the
New Orleans Saints have a lot of questions Joel who's
their quarterback going to be? Drew Brees has not announced
officially he's retired, but it looks oh he's retiring. He
made a key made a move his contract which I thought, yeah,
you restructured, right, if he was going to retire, his
cap number is gonna be twenty five million. Yeah, so
(31:03):
they renegotiated where they dropped the space salary to his
league minimum one point as one point seventy five million.
You only do that if you're going to retire, because
what you're trying, Yeah, what you're trying to do is
you don't want to have all the bonus pro ration
from the voiding years hit the cap in twenty one.
So you carry him on the roster until June second,
(31:24):
and you can delay the pro ration until next year.
So that was done for that reason. You have Taysom
Hill under contract. I wouldn't have given him an extension.
You could have played on his first round restricted tender.
And seems like Sean Hayton has an affinity for Jamis Winston,
so it's probably gonna be one of those two guys.
Because I've never seen a situation like the Saints in
(31:47):
terms of the salary cap issues that this is as
unprecedented that even if you did add the cap go
up tune to ten million, they were still going to
have to make multiple moves in terms of strecturing contracts
and cutting people, and they kicked the can down the
road with the best of them, so, um, it was yeah,
I don't expect. Yeah, they talk about having to pay
(32:11):
the bills here when you look, I look, I'm just
looking at spow track. But they are thirty two negative
seventy million, seventy point seven seventy one million, let's say,
um of cap space. Yeah, it's really it's really ninety
four because there's I don't know how it got reported
(32:33):
this way, but Jared Cook has a real year in
twenty twenty one. They have to physically cut him, whereas
I know some people have thought it was a voiding year,
so there's no cap charge for him. But he had
he had a roster bonus which had an escalator. So
right now he's got a twenty two million dollars cap number.
(32:55):
When you cut him, you're gonna pick up you gonna
have two million of dead money. So you're picking up
twenty on a cap space for cutting Jared Cook. But
that's not reflected in what you're looking at. What are
they gonna do? Well, I mean, what if it's the
worst cap situation in the league, what do you think
they end up doing? If you just Oh, they're gonna
go through multiple restructures, like they're gonna pick up like
(33:17):
ten million a cap room from Cameron Jordan add devoidable
years so they can stretch out the pro ration over
five years. People five years. People have talked about restructuring. Yeah,
Michael Thomas where they were gonna trade him. That adds
to the cap plus. If you don't have Drew Brees,
why are you gonna get rid of a weapon? Because
when he's healthy, he's great. So you're gonna restructure him.
(33:37):
You're gonna pick up nine million there, you're gonna restructure Chimera. No, actually,
he doesn't really give him that much. You don't restructure him.
You restructure Andrews Pete. You're gonna cut multiple players, Kwan Alexander.
You get thirteen million for cutting him, generous. Jenkins has
probably gone. Some of your mid tier players like Malcolm
(33:58):
Brown are probably gone. So here can I see multiple restructures,
multiple releases, and we're gonna see how good of a
coach Sean Payton is. Yeah, I would not want to
be there GM. Mickey Loomis has got a lot, a
lot of decisions to make here, Joel, what is the
(34:18):
worst when you look at some of these these bad
cap situations, what's the worst one that you've ever seen?
Well until this year, well this year it was the
two thousand and two Jacksonville Jaguars. And teams fall into
a trap where if you think you can win a
Super Bowl, don't worry about tomorrow and you're worried about today,
(34:42):
so your moves are made for the short term. That's
back when Jacksonville had a lot of stars on their
team kept restructuring contracts. They were saved by one thing,
the expansion draft. Texans took more lable guys off of
them that they took Gary Walker, Seth Pain, and Tony Bisselli.
(35:05):
And if I correct, the bonus pro ration when you
took someone in the expansion draft went to the Texans,
so you didn't have the type of dead money you
would have. And then they cut a client of hours
who from a performance standpoint didn't deserve to be cut
Keenan McCardell ninety catch eleven hundred yard season. They cut him.
(35:28):
And back then there were no post unione designations. You
had to wait until June second to get cut, and
in that secondary market free agency. Back then, the money
already dried up. He went to Tampa and got a
Super Bowl ring. But you don't get rid of a
ninety catch eleven hundred yard guy if you've managed capwell.
So that's probably the worst one I've seen. The Raiders
(35:48):
had a pretty bad one, and Reggie McKenzie first got
there because I don't think Al Davis was thinking long term.
He's thinking, hey, uh, I need to win now, and
he had like fifty five million and dead money one
year trying to clean up the Raiders cap situation to
get them in a position where they could go forward,
and did get them make them competitive a couple of
(36:10):
years later later after that. It's just a situation where
you know, I mean, obviously you're not making these deals,
but when you're a team, I guess if you feel
like your window is right there and you feel like
you've got a shot, I guess that's it, right. You
just feel like you know what we're going all in
and you know, and then you end up making these
(36:32):
deals where you gotta rob Peter to pay Paul and
and then you got to pay them all. Yeah, and
you can outrun it when the or maybe mostly outrun
it when the cap goes up six seven eight percent
each year. But when we have this unusual situation where
the CAP's gonna go down, that's your problem. Then the
(36:53):
chicken comes on. Chickens come home to roost where the
credit card bill is due and you have to pay.
Philadelphia has been in that when now mode and their
second worst situation. Even though they've got some logical exit
points with some deals they they weren't counting on Carson
Wentz being a guy they'd have to trade. That deal
will set up where you'd restructure it if he did
(37:14):
what they thought he would be. But now they're gonna
have the biggest individual dead money charge in league history
of thirty three point eight million for trade versus like
a thirty four point three million dollars captain non versa.
He would save eight hundred fifty thousand dollars, but still
that's unusable cap space. But I never thought he'd be
traded this year, but that appears to be what will happen.
(37:38):
Matthew Stafford goes to La Lions get a starting quarterback,
They get a haul of draft picks. Rumors reports are
the Eagles want that kind of deal. You're gonna see
a lot of quarterbacks right move around. There's the whole
Deshaun Watson situation down there. I believe I see it.
When he's traded. I don't think nick nick nick kissario one.
(38:00):
It's his first major move to be I traded a
franchise quarterback who's twenty five. When the ideas you try
to find those guys and keep them. And I don't
think he wants to set the precedent that if you
you can get what you want as a player, if
you just scruntled, that's a factor that I think, Yeah,
(38:21):
people are underrating him, not wanting to set that precedent
for other people to be able to come in the
door afterwards and go, hey, if if I'm happy, I
can force my way out. I know from personal experience
when you got a new regime that is a difficult,
difficult obstacle to deal with when you're trying to get
a new contract and a holdout situation or trying to
(38:43):
force a trade. All right, well let's wrap this up.
I'm just gonna put you on the spot here. Thumbs up, yes, no,
thumbs up, thumbs down, wherever you want to do it.
Do they do they get a deal done before the
new League year. You think, Um, you mean TV money,
TV deals. Yep. I'm gonna say yes because I think
the owners a motivate to try to get it done.
(39:04):
Does Carson Wentz get traded? Uh? Yeah, but Philly is
gonna have to come off that Matthew Stafford Hall because
part of that was the the Rams were given away
Jared Goff. That was more that was that was part
of the brock Osweiler type thing. Here take him, We'll
give you a second round pick. So you're not getting
Matthew Stafford Hall. You have real estate expectations. You can
(39:26):
trade him. Who's the quarterback going to be in New Orleans?
Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, he stay stays, Julio Johnson stays
for another year because you got Calvin Ridley, Who's who
proved this Ye, you could be a number one. So
I think maybe a farewell season for both Matt Ryan
(39:47):
and Julio Jones. In less it's a very successful season.
Wow woo. Number four. You're you're Terry Fontineau. What do
you do? Uh? In what respect? Take take a pick?
Do you do your draft? Best player of Valbo or
you trade down? Oh? And what you just said I'm
(40:08):
taking mine. If I think the quarterbacks are all equal,
then I trade down and snag want to get additional picks.
If there's one guy I like more than any others um,
then I'm taking that guy unless he's gone, um a
pick ahead of me, three or something. Okay, I could
determine if another quarterback. If the quarterback you want is
gone by a team who picks ahead of you, then
(40:28):
that could change what your philosophy is in the in
the draft. Okay, So you're saying you're Matt, Ryan, Julio, Jones, Gray,
Jared are all going to be here. You trade down,
you get some picks. New head coach. You saw what
Arthur Smith did with Ryan Tannehill and how he adapts
to his players. You got Terry Fontineau wanting to put
his imprint on this team. Do you think the Falcons
(40:50):
can be competitive and push for a division title? If
that's the case, no, it's the Bucks. Bucks are gonna
win the division. Bucks take it again. Yeah, I don't
think it's gonna be as competitive as it was this
year because New Orleans they're gonna take a step back.
So I think it's really as long as Tom Brady's upright.
They're winning the division, all right. Joel, awesome to have you.
(41:15):
We got to have you back when uh well, once,
once the dust settles here and we get through that draft,
I'd love to have you back on man oh anytime.
Appreciate you having me on
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