October 9, 2025 • 41 mins
The Chargers are in town Sunday. Today, Travis breaks down the matchup from every angle. The schematics, the personnel, the keys to victory, the matchups and much more to get you ready for kickoff.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is Drivetime with Travis Wingfield.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up Dolphins and welcome to the Draft Time Podcast.
I am your host, Travis Wingfield, and on today's show
are breaking down all things Dolphins and Chargers preview day
here on Thursday, going through the tape, the personnel, the
calling cards, the matchups, the keys, the predictions, what's at stake,
everything you need to know ahead of Dolphins and Chargers
Sunday from hard Rock Stadium from the Baptist Health Studios
(00:34):
inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
The Draft Time Podcast. May Daffi.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
La Chargers Week number six. Introduction to this team. There's
three and two. The Dolphins enter at one and four.
I have a funny relationship with the Chargers. I always
like them as my backup team growing up, which don't
really have that anymore now. It's just like what possible,
like rooting interest that benefits the Dolphins, can I find right?
(01:04):
But back then it was like, well the Dolphins are
out of it by October every year. You know, I'm
talking about like the seven Chargers for instance. I was
a big fan of Drew Brees and Phil Rivers. But
what really cemented it for me was that seven season,
when you start off was ohen thirteen for the Dolphins.
Ronnie Brown goes down in week six, Chris Chambers gets
traded in Week seven. I was all in on that
(01:26):
year's Chargers team in their playoff run. And I had
a friend growing up who was a diehard Colts fan,
and I was insanely jealous of all the success that
he saw. Every single Sunday, he would come into my
house and watch Sunday Ticket because I had the ticket
he did not, and I would watch it in my bedroom.
He would watch it in the main room, the Colts
game while I'm watching the Dolphins getting mad punched in
the coffee table, and he's out there like, oh yeah,
(01:48):
We're up twenty one to three. Reggie Wayne's got one
hundred and fourteen yards, Marvin Harrison has one hundred and
seventy six yards, Edgerrin James He's got one hundred and
thirty four yards in the ground. And I'm like, oh cool,
we have one hundred and eighteen yards of offense and
we're losing by twenty one points of the freaking JP
lost in Buffalo Bills. So I was jealous, and because
of that, I took it out on my friend through
my rooting interest for the San Diego Chargers in the
(02:10):
Division round that year, and loved every minute of that win,
especially Chris Chambers catching the go ahead touchdown in the
second half of that game to put the Chargers up
for good. And that love for them continued really all
the way up until twenty twenty. What happened in twenty twenty, Well,
they drafted a quarterback that I've never been a fan of.
And look, it's not anything that Herbert did, you know,
(02:32):
personality wise or anything. I just the college tape to
me wasn't great and I had a low projection on
him coming out, and I was wrong about most of that.
Some of that were accured on We'll get to more
of that here in just one second. But the hate
watching has become a thing for this team. Remember they
had that twenty eighteen playoff win over Lamar and the
Ravens and his rookie season. Off of a twelve and
four year for the Chargers. They lost the next round
(02:53):
of that year in the playoffs. The dip to five
and eleven and twenty nineteen, seven and nine, in twenty
twenty nine and eight, and twenty twenty one, which was
the season finale loss to the Raiders, when they could
have just played for a tie and gone to the playoffs,
ended up blowing that game. That was hilarious to me.
Then back to the playoffs in twenty two, ten and seven,
a loss to Jacksonville and a massive second half comeback
(03:13):
where the offense could not put points on the board
for like eight consecutive drives. They go five and twelve
and twenty four. Herbert gets hurt after a horrible start
that year for him. Then they hired Jim Harbaugh in
twenty twenty four, and he does what he always does,
whether it was at San Diego University, whether it was
at Stanford, whether it was at the forty nine ers,
whether it was at Michigan. He establishes a tough, physical
(03:34):
team that does not beat itself, which is kind of
half the damn battle these days, right, all this limited
practice time and training camp time and OTAs are limited
and everything, and the sport has been changed to, you know,
put flags on the players, like if you can learn
to not beat yourself, you can make the playoffs. Just
upon that single entity, that single trait of a football
(03:55):
team every single year of the NFL now, And look,
last year the Chargers were a meet up team. And
I'm this get myself in trouble here, but look like
they were a mediocre team that played in a really
easy schedule, right, Like I've talked about that seventeen thirteen
Falcons win when they picked off Kirk Cousins four times.
I've talked about that a million times in the Stupid podcast.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
But that's how they won the games.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
It was low competition, an easy schedule, which you know schedules.
I don't like the easy schedule argument as a blanket statement,
but you can go back and look at the teams
they played last year and it was just like one
Ham and Egger after another, and it helped them get
to eleven wins because they were good enough to not
beat themselves in those games. Then they had the wild
card round meltdown, they faced a good Texans team, Herbert
(04:37):
gets picked off four times. And now they've pivoted this year.
And it's a crazy pivot because we talked about it
with Matt Muney Smith on the show yesterday and it
was this run run pass, Dave Wanstead, play good defense, operation,
don't lose the game, right, give us a chance to
win the game in the fourth quarter, and they continued
building it that way. They decided what they wanted to be,
and they committed to it, and they went Joe All
(04:59):
over League Neighbors, which All is like, he's a surefire
perennial Pro bowler at tackle, but neighbors might be that
as a receiver. And to me, I guess this is
my philosophical difference, and maybe the league is pivoting away
from this now and I'm late to get to the
party here. I would have gote Neighbors. But that's again,
I think you can have that debate until you're blue
in the face. And there's not a bad option between
(05:20):
he and Joe All because they both look like ten
time Pro bowlers. You know. Granted they're both hurt right
now when neighbors more seriously so. But this year, I mean,
they take Omar and Hampton when a Mecca Egbuka was
on the board. A Mecca, yeah, a Mecca Agbugba. Do
you see Kronkowski trying to pronounce his name. They signed
the biggest right guard in the entire sport in Mackai Beckton,
the guy that we talked about is possibly a scheme
(05:41):
pivot player here, But in hindsight, I think it was
a good choice to not go in that direction, although
other hindsight tells you otherwise as well. But they know
who they want to be, right They have their identity,
which I think the Dolphins could learn from that. Now
their injuries have changed that id a little bit. But
they also pivoted off their original build with through the
first four games, and this changed last week. They had
the highest pass ray over expected in the NFL through
(06:04):
four games. They were putting the ball up and through
three games Herbert was playing pretty well, at least in
you know, stops and starts. Of that three game stretch.
The first game was one of his best games. He's
playing a long time. So a really good football team
that has so many injuries right now, that to me
makes them a middle of the road team when they're
not healthy.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
But they are who they want to be. They're big,
they're tough, a team that wants to win. Up front.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Their death chart looks like this, justin Herbert and Trey
lance A, the quarterbacks Hampton and Harris are down, then
it's Dwayne Haskins is the next running back up. Scott
Mattlock is the full back, Lad McConkie, Quentin Johnson, Keenan
Allen and then Trey Harris. A good group of receivers
there at tight end. Will Disley, We'll see if he
comes back this week, but if he's not up, it's
Tyler Conklin and Oronde Gas in the second or as
(06:48):
a junior. I think it's og the second right. But
Disley is like kind of the straw that starts with
drink in that room. So if he returns, that's a
pretty big get back for them. The left tackle has
been Austin Deckless, shaking my head right now. The right
tackle is Trey Pipkins if he can't go because he
had to exit last week's game with an injury. Foster
Surrell is the swing tackle. Like I'm gonna I'm just
(07:09):
gonna tell you guys this right now. You're not gonna
face a lesser tackle group than those two guys. And
that's I mean, it's it is what it is. It
tackles four and five. If it's not Pipkins. Pipkins is
a good player, but it's still a far cry from
Slater and an Alt If you're facing those two guys,
any team's fourth and fifth tackle is probably the worst
(07:30):
tackle combination in the NFL. Right inside, Zion Johnson's playing
left guard, Bradley Bow's been playing center, and Chargers fans
are big mad at Bradley Boseman right now. And then
Makai Becton is the right guard. But Jamii Slay Sailor jeez,
I can't pronounce that is also an option there, but
he's been playing tackle in place of Pipkins and Cerro like.
They have to kind of figure out how they're gonna
play that. And I don't know what's gonna be on Sunday,
(07:51):
but they are so banged up you're talking fourth to
fifth stringers at this point. On defense, tier Tartan DeShawn
Hand the top defensive tackles. Jamari Caldwell, the organ prospect
we talked about as a possible fifth sixth round nose option.
Here he is their nose tackle, and Titobania is the
fourth defensive tackle. Off the edge, Tuey Paloto, I think
(08:12):
I got that right, is their best edge right now.
Although adafe Oway just joined the ball club and he
will see about his inclusion of the team. You know,
he got there on Tuesday, Can you put him in
the game plan maybe for a few third down situations.
Bud Dupree is like kind of a replacement level player,
I think, and then Cayleb Murphy's next. That front group
is really struggling right now, as you heard from Matt
(08:33):
money Smith yesterday, at linebacker Deayon Henley go Koog's one
of the best in the game, Troy Die and then
at cornerback Dante Jackson with tart Heeb still Derwin James
is the nickel. They got Benjamin Saint Judi, who is
a big, long, physical press corner who came from Washington,
and then they just traded a Lohi Gilman. Tony Jefferson
gets the call up with Elijah Molden as to the
top two safeties there for the Chargers. So I feel
(08:55):
like this is the best place to start when talking
about these matchups and before we get to the injuries
or anything, because, like again, the Chargers are so banged
up on the offensive line and the entire front on
defense for that matter as well. And last week we
had this lengthy discussion about the Panthers offensive line, the
way Aikikwanu has struggled against power at left tackle, they're
on their backup center, They're on their third screen right guard.
(09:17):
The drop in production and talent and skill from Rico
from Tuba Hubbard to Rico Daddle, all of that made
sense on paper, But the Dolphins have to put their
hat in the ring in that regard, right. They have
to play better because if they don't, nothing else matters.
That's first and foremost. It does not matter who's out
there across from you. If anybody you see, backup, third
(09:39):
stringer otherwise can get displacement on the defensive tackles all
the way up to the scrape linebackers, we have to
find a way to control the line of scrimmage much better.
McDaniel said that after the game both sides of the ball.
It's tough to win when you get handled like this
team did on the defensive line, tot the line of
scrimmage on either side of the ball, and we did
it on Sunday and still damn near won the game
because of a plus two ta away margin. And so
(10:01):
despite the Chargers being down Slater and all to the
best tackle combo in football, despite Mackay Beckton leaving the
game and moving Jamari slate sailure, I can't say that
guy's freaking name to tackle and calling up a practice
squad guy on the interior, despite possibly playing a guy
that signed last week in in Foster Surrell, despite being
down both Amari and Hampton and Naji Harris, none of
that is going to matter. If we can't stick our
(10:24):
cleats in the freaking ground and hold the point, nothing
else matters. Like that is the one oh one peewee
football level of like starts and stops, like it has
to happen right there. And for years I felt like
this discussion about the skill groups and outside and building
the team inside like all that it was like overblown
(10:44):
to the point of like, well, there's different ways it's
gonna cap, but if it's this bad, if it's that
this level, nothing else is gonna matter. And I never
would have thought it would have been at this level
at this point of the season.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
I don't think anybody did. Shoot.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
I was at press conferences this summer where everybody everybody
on the beat was asking, you know, so, hey, you
and Bradley and Jalen like for chop, like you guys
might have the best edge group in the league. Hey,
this off ball linebacker position. You got four players that
can play.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
It's deep. It's one of the deepest groups.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Hey, Zack Seedler, Kenneth Grant looks pretty good, and Banito
Jones is playing well. Like, you guys have one of
the better front sevens in the NFL. Right, that was
what everybody was talking about with this Dolphins football team.
So as much as I'm like trying to say, yeah,
I didn't mean to be that wrong, like we were
all wrong about it at least so far. So it's
up to those guys to put their foot in the ground,
like literally and figuratively and get this thing stopped and fixed.
(11:31):
And I've been asked us a few times like what
is so different about how the front is playing this year?
Speaker 1 (11:35):
And it just comes down to execution.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
We're gonna have Jamal bush Rod, my radio partner, on
the podcast tomorrow and developing a nice rapport with dramon.
It's coming along here. You know, doing shows with someone
at the start is kind of tough when you don't
know them and their personality and their cues and their tics.
But we have kind of picked it up and I'm
excited about it because it's good for the radio show,
and it's great for the podcast and Dolphins HQ as well.
(11:58):
And Jerman's been so good at picking up like just
line of scrimmage tells and talking about that battle every week.
And I learned from him. I se next to him
and I just absorb what he talks about. And he's
talked about that lateral flow, the concept of two gapping,
and look, a lot of teams play two gap defense
up front. It's essentially two gaping is playing more read
and react and you can, you know, shed the block
(12:19):
in either gap, and one gaping is penetration, get upfield,
man your gap and force the offense to adjust accordingly.
And I felt last year Zach played more of that
penetration role and had opportunities off the edge of the
five technique and he could just kind of shoot the
B gap and play from there. And we saw that
in the Carolina game and spurts at least the second
play of the game, he blows up a screen by
(12:40):
ripping up field between the tackle and the guard and
putting the quarterback under immediate duress. But when you start
laterally and they get these combinations where they're the ones
that kind of come off the ball and move more
towards you than you towards them, because even when you
two gap, you have to go meet the tackle or
the guard or the center where he is. You have
to go be the one that engages that contact, you know,
(13:00):
physically in the tennis system. And because we're not doing that,
it's so easy for the opposition to uproot us, and
you just cannot win a football game. It doesn't matter
what you do on offense, doesn't matter in the secondary.
If you can't not not get uprooted down in and
down out in the running game, you're gonna lose every
single football game you play.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
So that's the thing.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
They gotta find a way to be more productive on
the defensive line, at defensive tackle, off the edge, across
the entire board. Now, with that said, that was my spiel.
We're fifteen minutes into the podcast. Almost as far as
the personnel and the matchups go. When it comes to
the Chargers offense, the offensive line is a mystery. I
don't know what they're going to run out there. We
know Slater is out. It's Thursday, so we're gonna get
more information on injury reports there coming up. Joe alt
(13:41):
I suppose could push to play, but he's two weeks
removed from a high ankle sprain, so even if he
does play, how healthy is he. Mackay Beckton left the
game with a finger injury on Sunday. Trey Pipkins, who
is the right tackle who's filling in for alt who
moved to the left side of filling for Slater who
was also out. He left the game last week, came
back in and left again. And we know for sure
Hampton and Harris are out, so there's a possibility here.
(14:04):
The Chargers are without their top three tackles, their right guard,
and just to be clear, Slater and all are Pro
Bowl caliber players, and Makai Becten is the next best
player on the offensive line, So all three of those
guys are out, the backup to the tackle might be out,
like the third backup behind Slater and alter A out
who's probably the next best guy on the offensive line
after that too. And we know they're going to be
(14:24):
without their two backs. Will Distley is their best blocking
tight end and their best tight end in general, and
he might be out. He could be activated off ir
this week. So they are banged up. And I sit
here and go through all of this, And I mean
I just talked about with the Panthers, like I thought
Chubb and Phillips and Chopp might have a matchup advantage there,
you know. And at right tackle, I think Chop will
(14:45):
this week if it is Celure that goes in that
right tackle position or Foster Surrell. And at the left
tackle position, Beachubb I think is he's kind of playing
a little bit slow right now, but I think if
you know, he gets a matchup that he can win,
he can put some numbers up. And Jalen Phillips I
think is coming along as well. So and if there's
a week to get it going for these guys defensive tackle,
for Zach Seeler, for all the edges, it's this week.
(15:06):
I mean, they're so banged up. I don't think it's
worth getting into the individual matchups because I don't know
who it's gonna be. But I know this, we have
to leverage better, we have to play at better pad level,
We have to get more consistent knockback. Jordan Phillips is
the only one that does it on a regular basis.
But we also heard from Mike McDaniel on Monday, and
I mean Agreer disagreed the need for overall connectivity from
(15:28):
the entire run defense, and that even extends out to
the cornerbacks where Rico Daddle's able to turn twenty additional
yards after a twelve yard game because we just throw
punches of the football and are reckless in our fits
and don't read leverage properly, like it's gonna take all
eleven even if the Chargers are banged up. You can't
play that way and win football games. Let's go ahead
(15:48):
and pause right there. That was longer than I wanted
it to be, and come back and talk about the
rest of the offense and the Chargers defense and plenty
more to come here on the Thursday preview edition of
Dolphins and Chargers Draft Time podcast, brought to you by
Auto Nation. Probably was a little bit premature on the
going to break right there, because I have like two
more paragraphs, two more parts of the rundown to talk
(16:11):
about here ahead of the Chargers defense, because I want
to talk about this in the quarterback section of things,
but talking about the receivers and passing game options for
the Chargers. Quentin Jefferson's Johnston Sorry, his emergence in the
passing game Keenan Allen's resurgence, and then Lad McConkey and
what he did last year. And Allen's been eating into
the production of Ladd from last season because he's getting
some of those easy looks from the slot that that
(16:33):
I think Ladd got. Now, Lad's a great player and
I think he's going to produce a lot in this league,
but his numbers are down this year, and of course
you know Quinton Johnson is eating into that as well.
And a lot of his drops that he had last
year have now become big plays. So they've got options
more so than they had last year for sure, and
it's going to be in confined spaces. They love to
get their crossers in behind linebackers, and then there's just
(16:53):
a really natural feel for the entire lot of this
group when Herbert goes off script for each guy to
follow him and get in the right spot. So the
critical element here when he goes back to pass is
to not let him escape to his right. It's kind
of like a Ryan Tannehill thing. Make him go left
and up into the pocket and don't let him run
and beat you either, and then try to get the
ball out on time because if he plays more of
a rhythm timing game. That's when you can really get Herbert.
(17:17):
You can kind of get after him a little bit.
The challenge here for Miami is the fact that we
are so depleted at nickel, and I think it'll be
a healthy mix of big nickel, because I mean, what
are your other options, Like Kendall Sheffield just got called up,
Jordan Colbert got called up. I think Colbert's audition is
probably more of a special team's ask as we see
more big nickel, possibly dime packages that has four defensive
(17:37):
has four safeties, because I mean, what are you going
to do at cornerback?
Speaker 1 (17:41):
I mean, cater.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
Obviously is down, Jason Marshall is down, Cornell Armstrong just
went down, Storm Duck is down. Cameron Dance from the
train camp is down. Like geez, every year this position, man,
I swear it doesn't ever survive the season. But the
challenge here for Miami is trying to find out who
can cover that slot because it's their best option in
the passing game. I think it's a Minka Fitzpatrick matchup.
I would go Minka on Keenan Allen and try to
(18:03):
win that matchup with your best player and then it's
Big Nickel possibly four safeties with Ashton Davis in the post,
and then Dante Trader and Ifi Mela Fon. We were
kind of rotating in that box and crossing Crosser Crosser's
robber roll as he steps down. So big challenge in
this part of the game. As for the Chargers defense,
some names that you guys are familiar with. But first
they add Odafe Oway in a trade on Tuesday. He
(18:25):
will help them, but how much will he help him
this week? It can't be a lot, right, I'm sure
he'll get in there for some sub package rush opportunities,
which further increases the need to be good on first
and second down. But as you heard from Money yesterday,
they have really missed Khalil Mack. His absence spars that
way trade and then Denzel Perriman could return this week,
(18:46):
but there's a good chance there without both those guys,
they'll definitely be without Mac and they can't really stop
the run off the edge and they can't really get
after the quarterback because of that. So that's where Oway
comes in. We'll get into the concept of them defending
from light boxes on early downs, but they want you
to drive the entire field and they trust that you
will eventually make a mistake, but you pull which I
mean that's I guarantee you. That's gonna be the mode
(19:07):
of operation this week against the Dolphins team that lately
has been cleaned up. But what's been one of the
bigger bugga boots for this offense in recent years. It's
the operation and delays and timeouts and shifts and formations
and ineligible guys downfield, Like, you're gonna have to find
a way to get that buttoned up this week because
the Chargers will make you go six, seven, eight yards
at a time. Now pull up the Giants tape and
their best plays were Cam Skataboo hitting a lead block
(19:28):
on Jackson Dart runs and I love Love Love dayon Henley.
But he's not a stack and shed backer and that
calls for a big alec Ingold game. But at the
same time, that's what the Panthers game called for. You know,
let's put Trayvon Merrick down on the fit and let's
have you know, defend these twenty one personnel groupings, which
is two backs, one tight end alec Ingold with nickel personnel.
(19:51):
I mean, we've talked about that against Buffalo for six years. Now,
if you're gonna play Nickel, we're gonna run two back
personnel and run power, and run pin and poll and
run counter and run lead and just overpower you. And
in the Buffalo game back in twenty twenty two, the
Dolphins ripped off a billion rushing yards is including that
sixty five yard whatever run that Raheem Moster had in
the first quarter because of that exact grouping. But now
(20:12):
the Panthers make this shift to this type of defense,
and they played thirty six snaps in that game of
what was it fifty seven with six or fewer guys
in the box. It's a light box. Run the football,
run power. You don't have to get on the edge
against that. Right, So that to me is the proper pivot.
But I mean, Hemley's two twenty five. That's the same
size as Troy Dye, the other linebacker, who I think
(20:33):
is kind of a jag. So can we add hats
against these light boxes? Can we play power? Can we
play downhill? Ca We just hit a couple double teams
and let Allie Gordon go pound one inside. You could
get engled, you can get brewery, you can get Jonah
all your biggest bodies into the second level and don't
allow those linebackers to play clean.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
If they're unblocked, they'll make plays.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
But if you climb up to the second level and
put a big body in front of them, you can
run it down these guys' throats because Tier Tart, he's
their best layer up front. He's quick as a hiccup,
but he's not He can get you over extended by
one gapping, but he can take himself out of plays.
You can double him and take away that explosiveness and
then rely on the rest of your guys to win
one on ones against players that aren't that flashy, like
(21:13):
he can get on your shoulder and overpower half your body.
That's an area where you're concerned about Jonas Ivitanaya, who
has struggled in that exact regard all season long. But
I would just help help on d R. Tart and
that gives you a matchups against Jamari Caldwell and Toshan Hand,
who are one dimensional players like they there's not a
lot into their game. Hands a nice player, but Caldwell
(21:35):
is a space eater. Hand is kind of a let
me power through you and just kind of outmotor you
to the quarterback.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
Into the running play to the running game.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
You have to find ways to win these one on
ones so you can help elsewhere. And I wonder if
they try to get call Well on Brewer because of
the size discrepancy, But they can scheme around that, getting
Brewer out in space and reaching Callwell either guard. But
if you do that, that opens up a one gap
run for Tart. He's the one that stirs all the
drink here, and that's why I'm curious what happens at
right guard.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
I imagine it will be Cole Strange again.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
We got the unfortunate news on Monday that Austin Jackson
and James Daniels are nowhere close to returning, nor is
leem Meikenberg and Andrew Meyer. So I guess we're gonna
play most of the season with like you know, O
line eight to nine guys getting out there, which I
didn't think was possible, but here we are in week six.
I think this is a potential Allie Gordon game. These
light boxes with two gapping defensive tackles who are not
(22:26):
expert block shutters. That's gonna be a light linebacker on
a potentially climbing combination on the offensive line, and a
big back who burrows through arm tackles and can run
through those linebackers. Like those linebackers don't bring the punch
to Olie Gordon, he can take it to them. He's
the more physical player of those three guys. Something to
consider here on early downs. And again though I'm not
(22:46):
super interested in taking Devon ah Chan off the field.
Speaker 1 (22:48):
But look at what he does a version a super receiver.
Look at what he did as a receiver.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
That's what I'm trying to say, Like, let's get creative here, man,
let's go twenty two personnel. Maybe it's go go thirty
one personnel.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
Dude.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Put Julian Hill out there as a tight end. Put
alec ingold make Devon a Chan be the second receiver
with with Jalen Wattle and Allie Gordon in the backfield.
Wattle on one side, Ache on the other. Hill is
the attached why and then Ingolden and Gordon in the backfield.
Like that's that's what I would do, But I don't know.
(23:22):
Now that said, I think one of the weak spots
on the Chargers' roster is the defensive line depth and
with a chance speed outside, you can lean on that.
In this heat, it's gonna be hot, it's gonna be humid,
and then you can counter that with the physicality inside
of the Chargers. Cornerbacks on the outside should say because
a Chan is not gonna be able to shed these
Chargers corners as easily as he did the Jets a
couple weeks ago, for instance. But man, if you can
(23:44):
stretch him with a Chan and pound it inside with
his pause with Ali Gordon like there, there's a lot
of yards to be had against this Chargers defense where
you don't even have to risk putting the ball in
the air. Now again, outside of Max's absence, and maybe
even with him, their best pass prushure is two le
tue Poloto. It's like wait till you hear jamontra I
say Jonah of Vit United tomorrow. That's my same hiccup there.
(24:05):
But he typically rushes the right side, and with Tart
being the mismatch that he can be for a left
guards a three technique. I tend to think that you
help Larry and just leave Patrick Paul by himself all
day long, whether it's oh way, whether it's twey Poloto
kicking over to that side, whoever it is. I would
put Pat on an island against almost anybody, and this
week for sure, and figure out your bumps and checks
(24:25):
and sides with Jonah on Tart and don't let that
batchup get too many too often become a one on
one matchup. I am scared though of Larry on Tooya
Poloto and Tart on Jonah. But outside of that, Miami
has all the advantages in this matchup. Up front. They
tackle extremely well on the screen game, so he probably
won't expect to hit, you know, explosives that way. I
think there's value to showing the screen game, but I
don't think it'd be an engine of your success in
(24:46):
this one of the way it can be against others,
and we were close on so many plays against the
Panthers last week. Maybe you can find one this week,
even though it's a good tackling team. But I probably
wouldn't venture towards that range too much. Tar Heap still
is at the forefront of that. He's one of the
best tackling cornerbacks in the league, and he brings that
temperament to his pass coverage. It is so critical for
him to get hands on reroutes with how they get
their sim pressures, because if you can beat that press,
(25:08):
you can really go after them in the middle of
the field in that ten to fifteen yard range. The
Giants got some hits in that area, and Dante Jackson
he's been really good too, So they're both physical and
with Wattle, I'm certain they're going to try to throw
him off of his routes and maybe that's where he
becomes a little more frequent of emotion. Man. Like we
saw last week that was even the deal with Tyreek, right,
Like it's weird how suddenly Waddle getting the right to
(25:29):
go in motion makes a better player. But moving Wattle
about the formation with the thought you know that might
you know, might be Nick Westbrook, a keename Elak Washington,
Headrick Wilson, Darren Waller flexed out in these bunches or
bigger guys who play with more power. They can hopefully
help thwart those reroutes from the line of scrimmage and
let Waddle get the free releases off of bunches and
(25:50):
off of motions. Derwin James is at the forefront of
all this stuff. He really makes life tough because of
his ability to impact the field at all three levels,
and jesse mentor leans into that he's the key to
their disguise. He's just as good of a blitzer as
he is a hook drop man or a man matchman
on the back end or in the slot as a
cover defender. So for TUA, you'll have to find number
three on every single play. And then I wrote this
(26:12):
about the safeties. Alohi Gilman and Elijah Molden are probably
the best tandem you haven't heard of or at least
talked about a lot. But here's an edit because they
just traded Gilman on Tuesday and I wrote this, You're
not gonna get busted in coverage here. They're perfect within
their rules, so it's up to the structure of the
offense to challenge those rules and flood their reeds. One
of the best elements of this defense is the interchangeability
(26:33):
of Molden and James as a nickel as a strong
safety type like those guys are interchangeable in those two roles. Now,
Gilman did play the most true safety snaps with the
Chargers on Sunday forty three. James never leaves the field,
but he's he's rarely an astatic position for more than
a play at a time because of the flexibility they
have on the back end, because now next up, Tony
(26:54):
Jefferson can fulfill that role. Who was a practice squad
elevation signed to the roster player early on. He played
sixteen snaps on Sunday and I went through every game
book this season. I don't know who the next player is.
And they're three nickel packages or they're sorry, they're three
safety they're big nickel packages. Because Dirwin's part of that,
Molden's part of that, Jefferson's part of that, but Kendall Williams, RJ.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
Mickens.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
Maybe it's just ser Taylor who can play backup nickel
and you put Durwin back and more of a safety role.
But that would pigeonhole your best player. So it's like
the offensive line. I don't know what to expect here.
So my original preview thought was they do not bust coverages,
but who knows, maybe with a new combination back there,
they can. But yeah, you got to find a way
to if they're going to keep Drwin more static, I
(27:36):
think you can find ways to influence that with the
w Waller waddle combination with those motions, with those stacks
and bunches, and continue hit those two man route combos,
and hey, maybe it's a week for Taj Washington. I
think he and his speed off of Wattle could pub
possibly have an impact on this game.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
But we shall see.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Let's go ahead and take our last break, right there,
come back into the schemes of these this team, the
quarterback discussion. We'll talk about what's the stake he's a victory,
and predict the game.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
All of that.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
Next Draft Time podcast brought to you by AutoNation No Right,
we're back with the scheme calling cards. Dolphins offense first
Chargers defense, and this segment was made for this unit
of this football team. Their calling card is the ability
to disguise with late rotation to set up fire zones.
(28:21):
And I watched the Giants tape and there were so
many plays where I thought, Okay, this is two man
or this is cover one and then the pass off
to quickly match. And Tua has to be on his
absolute best against this group because I think if you're
looking for, you know, scheme, and not even just the scheme,
more so the understanding of the rules and playing within
the structure of the scheme. They are so well coached,
(28:44):
but a scheme that by design should be a tough
matchup for Miami in this one, we love to beat
you by playing faster than you, by playing on time. Well,
nobody does a better job of changing the picture in
the first two seconds to you drop back and you
can and can make you play blind to it, besides
maybe Brian Flores. Then on top of that, they can
physically alter how you get to your landmarks because they're
(29:05):
a big team. They've got a big defensive line, big edges,
big corners. It's their brand, right, It's who the Chargers are.
The aspect of the Giants game plan that got them
was the quarterback run. And when you look at their usage,
I had to deep dive this because it confused me
going into Week five. If they're season long percentages of
personnel groupings where Nickel fifty four percent, Dime at thirty
five percent, and that's eighty nine percent of their groupings,
(29:29):
which is five defensive backs, which further confuses me about
the trade of a lowhi Gilman and I thought, well,
they don't match personnel, But then I pull up the
Giants and Broncos game logs and they were matching, Like.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
Why is that? Why would Denver do that?
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Brian win Horse asks because I went back to the
Chiefs and Raiders games in Week one and two and
they did not match. Those teams would operate from less
than two receiver sets and they're still in their nickel.
But then I went and looked a little deeper. Khalil
Mack got hurt in Game two, but more so I
think it was the threat of quarterback run because Mahomes
can scram but he's on a designed run quarterback. Neither
(30:02):
is Geno Smith, but Bo Nicks and Jackson Dart are,
So what is Tua more Gino?
Speaker 1 (30:07):
Right?
Speaker 2 (30:07):
So I think the expectation there would be that you
see them stay in their nickel package, and that brings
about the same thing we talked about against the Bills
every year. I talked about it already in the Panthers
game twenty one twelve twenty two personnel two backs or
two tight ends or two backs and two tight ends
and get that run game going. So the way you
can remove them from their creative design and disguise is
(30:28):
to run the football. It's simple, but it's the way
and maybe it's more power than trying to hit moving
landmarks off the edge and try to go after a
soft edge group, which, trust me, I get the idea
of your outside zone scheme against the soft edge group
is enticing. But if it doesn't work, maybe you go inside. Also,
when they show pressure and back out a sim pressure,
they will have the hook drop players engage the offensive line,
(30:50):
they'll touch them to make sure they declare and step
up and free up gap for somebody else. So this
can cause more breakdowns in your pass pro but it
also makes them two steps later to get back into
the hook drop, and then from there they'll drop a
safety to where they think that hot is and leave
their weak side hook vacant. That's kind of where you
have to get to. We saw Julian Hill catch a
couple of footballs over the ball this week.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
More of that. To put a bow on this, I
don't think they'll blitz a ton.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
Their philosophy is to win on early downs with their
light boxes to get to their pressure packages. So if
you keep them out of those, you'll have some success.
Winning early downs is critical, and spoiler will be a
key for this game. They blitched just eighteen percent of
the time, that's twenty seventh most in the NFL, but
their twenty five percent pressure rate is seventh best in
the National Football League, although it has decreased each of
(31:35):
the last three games defensively against the Chargers' offense scheme
calling cards. The biggest single surprise in the NFL this
year to me is that Chargers pass over expected rate
number one in the NFL. And I talked this offseason
about how I didn't really like the approach in twenty
twenty four, kind of every drive that ends in a
kick is a good drive philosophy. And then they drafted
(31:55):
running back in round one, a big receiver. In round two,
they signed Mike Williams. They simon McKay beck Dan It's like, okay,
it's gonna be more of the same, and they do
a total rug pull and become the most pass heavy
team in the NFL and early downs, so you have
to expect that. And the way teams have gotten us
gotten them out of that, well, you got to hit
the quarterback. No QB has been hit or pressured more
of this year than justin Herbert, and part of that's
(32:17):
on him, right, that's not an offensive line stat. All
the time, the quarterback can help, you know, mitigate that
as well. And that's how you wind up with As
we transition to our next bit here on the Thursday
Preview podcast, Travis versus Justin Herbert once again, and no
one cares about this outside of Travis. But let me
state this, I am not going to forecast any of
this playing out in the game. I learned my lesson
(32:39):
on that with Rico Daddell, didn't I just watch Rico
run for fourteen yards over the next three games, like
just you watch, but it starts with us Kapeese like
that disclaimer off the top, because Justin Herbert is who
we thought he was and we can't let him off
the hook.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
But no, Herbert ranks forty ninth.
Speaker 2 (32:57):
Huhne, Yeah, that's right, forty ninth among quarterbacks right now
in EPA per play. He's thirty second in success rate,
twenty first and passer rating. His SAC percentage is eight
point two five percent, that's eighth most in the NFL.
(33:18):
And he's turned the ball over five times. That's tied
with Tua, Nix and Purdy for six most in the NFL.
And look, everyone is going to point to the injuries
his tackles are hurt. I get it, it's tough to
overcome that stuff. But I really, really really hate blanket blame.
Blake could blame in a twenty two man sport that's
taking shortcuts.
Speaker 1 (33:37):
That's how a Twitter.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
Fan comes upon their indignant opinion despite not really doing
the work behind it, the leg work behind it, right.
I don't trying to disparage anybody out there, but there's
a lot of that in this league.
Speaker 1 (33:50):
Shoot.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
I know, I probably know one percent of this game,
and I'm next to the coaches all day long. You
can evaluate any player on any snap, regardless of circumstances.
My whole entire point because I saw a Baker Mayfield.
I saw that thing. That thing came in here while
I will sleep on the couch. That's a deep cut
from I think you should leave. If you haven't seen
that show, go watch it. I saw Baker Mayfield win games,
win a game this year without Tristan Wurf's the best
(34:14):
tackle in the world, Lane Johnson Pine sul Tristan Warps
is the best tackle in the world.
Speaker 1 (34:20):
He was in Iowa.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
You could tell Luke A DECKI also a pro bowler,
and Cody Muck also a pro bowler. It's three pro bowlers.
Also didn't have Mike Evans, and he won a game
without those guys. With Herbert lost of the freaking Giants.
With Herbert, when he's protected and when he can get
out of pressures, there are few players better. Right. He's
top ten quarterback, Yeah, top twelve quarterback. I'll give him
(34:41):
that all day long. But if you can pressure him,
if you can blitz him, and you can blitz out
of his escape hatches, notably off the right side, you
can force bad decisions, you can force a rat at placement,
and you can kill drives with the sacks that he
will take. Go back to twenty twenty three game on
the line, we just had the Tyreek Hill touchdown to
win the game, to go ahead. We blitzed him, leave
hot uncovered, never sees it eats a sack game over boom,
(35:02):
get out of here, youboso. So if you can take
away that first read, funny how that works and keep
him in the pocket, you can create a lot of negatives.
And with their banged up run game, the hope has
to be you get them into third longs all game
long and attack accordingly. I'm I know I'm right on this.
The Dolphins might not prove me right. So just know
(35:23):
that all this talk about that he could throw for
three hundred and forty yards and three touchdowns in this game,
it's very possible. But he won't do it all year long.
I can tell you that much our quarterback. They're gonna
try like hell to slow down his process. The Chargers
are and then bait him with late reactions. So if
we get sharp Tua where he's seeing it and playing
ahead of the pace at all times, we will cook
in this game. If they can consistently create situations where
he is up in true dropback situations, constantly high leverage,
(35:47):
read it out type of plays, then their likelihood of
forcing mistakes and takeaways and turn this game into a
laugher increases by every time they can do that. You
can negate this with early down success or the quarterback
playing really, really good.
Speaker 1 (35:59):
Both were on the table.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Both of those things have happened this year, just very
rarely in accordance with one another. I thought Tua was
sharp in Carolina. I think two things can be true
at the same time. Tua has to hit that pass
to Waddle on the final drive, and it also is
hard to win when the opposing team runs for two
hundred and thirty nine yards and Tua has to play
to a certain level for his team to get the
win because right now we're not playing well in many
(36:22):
other areas. Because go look at the numbers, and after
a tough start to the season, here he is again.
He's third in touchdown passes, he's fourth in completion percentage.
His passer rating is over one hundred, which there are
fifteen quarterbacks that have that right now. Game continues to
evolve in a certain way. But the point is, I
think Tua is already beginning to level out from what
was a bad start to the season, and I expect
(36:44):
that to continue for the rest of the year because
that's who's always been in his career. Which look, maybe
the early frustrations brought out a little bit of a
harsh critique of Tua. I don't think so, because my
eyes don't deceive me, you know. My eyes tell me
better than these numbers do. But with the numbers and
the limitations, those have become more noticeable this year to me,
not that they weren't before, but it's more so now.
In my opinion, I think where two had kind of
(37:05):
settled into that ten to twelve quarterback range when healthy.
I think it's probably like fourteen to sixteen right now,
which is okay.
Speaker 1 (37:10):
It's not great.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
You can obviously, if you can do better, go ahead
and do better. It's tough to get better than that, though,
because quarterbacks don't grow on trees. But when you have
that with the current issues this team has, that's how
you go one and four. So that's the whole spiel,
special teams and miscellaneous. I think it's really solid as
of late. You got another good kickoff return from Lake
Washington ahead of the go ahead touchdown on the fourth quarter.
(37:32):
Jake Bailey is kicking the crap out of the football.
You down them with the two yard line of this game,
Elijah Campbell's on like a Pro Bowl specialist. Paced Riley
Passion has not missed a kick. As for the Chargers,
actually I found this data. The Dolphins rank fourth and
expected points added and the Chargers are twenty fifth on
special teams. So Miami can possibly steal some points here
in the margins. What's at stake? Listen, I think the
(37:53):
hardest thing, well, hang on like for me each week
this section and just my position in general, like seventeen
to nothing to the Panthers, I'm thinking two and three.
I'm thinking they can upset the Chargers. Maybe they get
on a roll, then you blow it in the other
direction and it's like, well, top five pick right. I'm emotional.
I'm fully in the show me mode before I buy
(38:14):
into anything. But this is a very depleted Chargers team
that's not playing good football right now, and they're going
to come across the country at a one o'clock kickoff
in the heat, and you win the game, and the
mind goes to, well, hey, the Browns are starting to
Rickie quarterback in this loss of the Carson Wentz, and hey,
the Falcons are far from an automatic l then, like
the Ravens on a short week with a possibly injured
(38:35):
quarterback there who just traded a productive pass rusher amid
they're disappointing one in four star are they punting on
the season? Like you allow yourself to look at the
bigger picture, but then reality kind of comes back into
focus because in the past, the last three or four years,
like those games were automatic wins for this team.
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Right now, they're not that right now.
Speaker 2 (38:53):
So I'm very well aware of that, But I think
the hardest thing to me is just the slate of
the aft, the state of the AFC. Sorry, the Bills
are vulnerable, right, their defense is struggling. The Chiefs are
very vulnerable. This also Jacksonville, the Ravens like they're one
and four. The Bengals are cooked. And now that's the
top four teams, like with the top four quarterbacks, and
they all have like vulnerabilities. And now we see these decent,
(39:15):
not great, but decent teams like the Patriots and the
Jags popping.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
Up, and it's like that could have been us.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
If we could just had a chance stay in bounds
on that four and get that fourth down stop against
the Panthers, you could just be three and two and
right in that mix. But we're not, because that's the league,
because the good teams find ways to make those plays, right.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
So what's at stake?
Speaker 2 (39:32):
If you can win this one, you open the door
of the possibility of possibly beginning to think about starting
to get back in things. That's a South Park reference
that the Man Bear Pick episode. But if you lose,
probably not. That's what I've got for the what's at
stake here? My keys to victory Number one, You have
to consistently win on early downs and offense. If the
Chargers get youven third long, be able to kill us.
Number two, be perpetually aware of Derwin James's alignment. He
(39:54):
is the key to the disguise, and that disguise is
the key to the defense.
Speaker 1 (39:58):
Number three.
Speaker 2 (39:58):
Hold the point of attack on d defense because this
is a very banged up offensive line with backup running
back after backup running back. Do not let them push
you around the way the Panthers did again, because that
would be if you can't do it now, when can
you do it?
Speaker 1 (40:10):
The prediction.
Speaker 2 (40:12):
I think the Chargers are ripe for the picking. Are
we in a position to do that that? I don't know.
My lean is that this is a rock fight type
of a game. But then I think can the Dolphins
defense right now do anything to get us to that point?
I just don't know, kind of have to see it
right It's a wait and see mode. So if the
tilt of this matchup in terms of the favoring is
the Dolphins defense has the advantage over their banged up offense,
(40:35):
but their defense has the advantage over our offense, like
that's the Chargers benefit because that defense is good, whereas
our benefit is because they're so banged up. So because
of that, I think I have to go loss. I
think I'll go a lot of field goals. So twenty
three to sixteen Chargers win. You all, please be sure
(40:55):
to subscribe to the podcast, leave us a rating, leave
us a review, follow me on social app linkol NFL
the team at Miami Dolphins. Check out the YouTube channel
for Dolphins HQ. I am so proud of the Gilling
Waddle break down. Go ahead and check it out this
week if you have not done so already. And last
but not least, Miami Dolphins dot com until next time.
Friend Caroline Cameron and Willow Daddy. He's coming home.
Speaker 1 (41:14):
Go Mariners.
This is Drivetime with Travis Wingfield.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up Dolphins and welcome to the Draft Time Podcast.
I am your host, Travis Wingfield, and on today's show
are breaking down all things Dolphins and Chargers preview day
here on Thursday, going through the tape, the personnel, the
calling cards, the matchups, the keys, the predictions, what's at stake,
everything you need to know ahead of Dolphins and Chargers
Sunday from hard Rock Stadium from the Baptist Health Studios
(00:34):
inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
The Draft Time Podcast. May Daffi.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
La Chargers Week number six. Introduction to this team. There's
three and two. The Dolphins enter at one and four.
I have a funny relationship with the Chargers. I always
like them as my backup team growing up, which don't
really have that anymore now. It's just like what possible,
like rooting interest that benefits the Dolphins, can I find right?
(01:04):
But back then it was like, well the Dolphins are
out of it by October every year. You know, I'm
talking about like the seven Chargers for instance. I was
a big fan of Drew Brees and Phil Rivers. But
what really cemented it for me was that seven season,
when you start off was ohen thirteen for the Dolphins.
Ronnie Brown goes down in week six, Chris Chambers gets
traded in Week seven. I was all in on that
(01:26):
year's Chargers team in their playoff run. And I had
a friend growing up who was a diehard Colts fan,
and I was insanely jealous of all the success that
he saw. Every single Sunday, he would come into my
house and watch Sunday Ticket because I had the ticket
he did not, and I would watch it in my bedroom.
He would watch it in the main room, the Colts
game while I'm watching the Dolphins getting mad punched in
the coffee table, and he's out there like, oh yeah,
(01:48):
We're up twenty one to three. Reggie Wayne's got one
hundred and fourteen yards, Marvin Harrison has one hundred and
seventy six yards, Edgerrin James He's got one hundred and
thirty four yards in the ground. And I'm like, oh cool,
we have one hundred and eighteen yards of offense and
we're losing by twenty one points of the freaking JP
lost in Buffalo Bills. So I was jealous, and because
of that, I took it out on my friend through
my rooting interest for the San Diego Chargers in the
(02:10):
Division round that year, and loved every minute of that win,
especially Chris Chambers catching the go ahead touchdown in the
second half of that game to put the Chargers up
for good. And that love for them continued really all
the way up until twenty twenty. What happened in twenty twenty, Well,
they drafted a quarterback that I've never been a fan of.
And look, it's not anything that Herbert did, you know,
(02:32):
personality wise or anything. I just the college tape to
me wasn't great and I had a low projection on
him coming out, and I was wrong about most of that.
Some of that were accured on We'll get to more
of that here in just one second. But the hate
watching has become a thing for this team. Remember they
had that twenty eighteen playoff win over Lamar and the
Ravens and his rookie season. Off of a twelve and
four year for the Chargers. They lost the next round
(02:53):
of that year in the playoffs. The dip to five
and eleven and twenty nineteen, seven and nine, in twenty
twenty nine and eight, and twenty twenty one, which was
the season finale loss to the Raiders, when they could
have just played for a tie and gone to the playoffs,
ended up blowing that game. That was hilarious to me.
Then back to the playoffs in twenty two, ten and seven,
a loss to Jacksonville and a massive second half comeback
(03:13):
where the offense could not put points on the board
for like eight consecutive drives. They go five and twelve
and twenty four. Herbert gets hurt after a horrible start
that year for him. Then they hired Jim Harbaugh in
twenty twenty four, and he does what he always does,
whether it was at San Diego University, whether it was
at Stanford, whether it was at the forty nine ers,
whether it was at Michigan. He establishes a tough, physical
(03:34):
team that does not beat itself, which is kind of
half the damn battle these days, right, all this limited
practice time and training camp time and OTAs are limited
and everything, and the sport has been changed to, you know,
put flags on the players, like if you can learn
to not beat yourself, you can make the playoffs. Just
upon that single entity, that single trait of a football
(03:55):
team every single year of the NFL now, And look,
last year the Chargers were a meet up team. And
I'm this get myself in trouble here, but look like
they were a mediocre team that played in a really
easy schedule, right, Like I've talked about that seventeen thirteen
Falcons win when they picked off Kirk Cousins four times.
I've talked about that a million times in the Stupid podcast.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
But that's how they won the games.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
It was low competition, an easy schedule, which you know schedules.
I don't like the easy schedule argument as a blanket statement,
but you can go back and look at the teams
they played last year and it was just like one
Ham and Egger after another, and it helped them get
to eleven wins because they were good enough to not
beat themselves in those games. Then they had the wild
card round meltdown, they faced a good Texans team, Herbert
(04:37):
gets picked off four times. And now they've pivoted this year.
And it's a crazy pivot because we talked about it
with Matt Muney Smith on the show yesterday and it
was this run run pass, Dave Wanstead, play good defense, operation,
don't lose the game, right, give us a chance to
win the game in the fourth quarter, and they continued
building it that way. They decided what they wanted to be,
and they committed to it, and they went Joe All
(04:59):
over League Neighbors, which All is like, he's a surefire
perennial Pro bowler at tackle, but neighbors might be that
as a receiver. And to me, I guess this is
my philosophical difference, and maybe the league is pivoting away
from this now and I'm late to get to the
party here. I would have gote Neighbors. But that's again,
I think you can have that debate until you're blue
in the face. And there's not a bad option between
(05:20):
he and Joe All because they both look like ten
time Pro bowlers. You know. Granted they're both hurt right
now when neighbors more seriously so. But this year, I mean,
they take Omar and Hampton when a Mecca Egbuka was
on the board. A Mecca, yeah, a Mecca Agbugba. Do
you see Kronkowski trying to pronounce his name. They signed
the biggest right guard in the entire sport in Mackai Beckton,
the guy that we talked about is possibly a scheme
(05:41):
pivot player here, But in hindsight, I think it was
a good choice to not go in that direction, although
other hindsight tells you otherwise as well. But they know
who they want to be, right They have their identity,
which I think the Dolphins could learn from that. Now
their injuries have changed that id a little bit. But
they also pivoted off their original build with through the
first four games, and this changed last week. They had
the highest pass ray over expected in the NFL through
(06:04):
four games. They were putting the ball up and through
three games Herbert was playing pretty well, at least in
you know, stops and starts. Of that three game stretch.
The first game was one of his best games. He's
playing a long time. So a really good football team
that has so many injuries right now, that to me
makes them a middle of the road team when they're
not healthy.
Speaker 1 (06:23):
But they are who they want to be. They're big,
they're tough, a team that wants to win. Up front.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Their death chart looks like this, justin Herbert and Trey
lance A, the quarterbacks Hampton and Harris are down, then
it's Dwayne Haskins is the next running back up. Scott
Mattlock is the full back, Lad McConkie, Quentin Johnson, Keenan
Allen and then Trey Harris. A good group of receivers
there at tight end. Will Disley, We'll see if he
comes back this week, but if he's not up, it's
Tyler Conklin and Oronde Gas in the second or as
(06:48):
a junior. I think it's og the second right. But
Disley is like kind of the straw that starts with
drink in that room. So if he returns, that's a
pretty big get back for them. The left tackle has
been Austin Deckless, shaking my head right now. The right
tackle is Trey Pipkins if he can't go because he
had to exit last week's game with an injury. Foster
Surrell is the swing tackle. Like I'm gonna I'm just
(07:09):
gonna tell you guys this right now. You're not gonna
face a lesser tackle group than those two guys. And
that's I mean, it's it is what it is. It
tackles four and five. If it's not Pipkins. Pipkins is
a good player, but it's still a far cry from
Slater and an Alt If you're facing those two guys,
any team's fourth and fifth tackle is probably the worst
(07:30):
tackle combination in the NFL. Right inside, Zion Johnson's playing
left guard, Bradley Bow's been playing center, and Chargers fans
are big mad at Bradley Boseman right now. And then
Makai Becton is the right guard. But Jamii Slay Sailor jeez,
I can't pronounce that is also an option there, but
he's been playing tackle in place of Pipkins and Cerro like.
They have to kind of figure out how they're gonna
play that. And I don't know what's gonna be on Sunday,
(07:51):
but they are so banged up you're talking fourth to
fifth stringers at this point. On defense, tier Tartan DeShawn
Hand the top defensive tackles. Jamari Caldwell, the organ prospect
we talked about as a possible fifth sixth round nose option.
Here he is their nose tackle, and Titobania is the
fourth defensive tackle. Off the edge, Tuey Paloto, I think
(08:12):
I got that right, is their best edge right now.
Although adafe Oway just joined the ball club and he
will see about his inclusion of the team. You know,
he got there on Tuesday, Can you put him in
the game plan maybe for a few third down situations.
Bud Dupree is like kind of a replacement level player,
I think, and then Cayleb Murphy's next. That front group
is really struggling right now, as you heard from Matt
(08:33):
money Smith yesterday, at linebacker Deayon Henley go Koog's one
of the best in the game, Troy Die and then
at cornerback Dante Jackson with tart Heeb still Derwin James
is the nickel. They got Benjamin Saint Judi, who is
a big, long, physical press corner who came from Washington,
and then they just traded a Lohi Gilman. Tony Jefferson
gets the call up with Elijah Molden as to the
top two safeties there for the Chargers. So I feel
(08:55):
like this is the best place to start when talking
about these matchups and before we get to the injuries
or anything, because, like again, the Chargers are so banged
up on the offensive line and the entire front on
defense for that matter as well. And last week we
had this lengthy discussion about the Panthers offensive line, the
way Aikikwanu has struggled against power at left tackle, they're
on their backup center, They're on their third screen right guard.
(09:17):
The drop in production and talent and skill from Rico
from Tuba Hubbard to Rico Daddle, all of that made
sense on paper, But the Dolphins have to put their
hat in the ring in that regard, right. They have
to play better because if they don't, nothing else matters.
That's first and foremost. It does not matter who's out
there across from you. If anybody you see, backup, third
(09:39):
stringer otherwise can get displacement on the defensive tackles all
the way up to the scrape linebackers, we have to
find a way to control the line of scrimmage much better.
McDaniel said that after the game both sides of the ball.
It's tough to win when you get handled like this
team did on the defensive line, tot the line of
scrimmage on either side of the ball, and we did
it on Sunday and still damn near won the game
because of a plus two ta away margin. And so
(10:01):
despite the Chargers being down Slater and all to the
best tackle combo in football, despite Mackay Beckton leaving the
game and moving Jamari slate sailure, I can't say that
guy's freaking name to tackle and calling up a practice
squad guy on the interior, despite possibly playing a guy
that signed last week in in Foster Surrell, despite being
down both Amari and Hampton and Naji Harris, none of
that is going to matter. If we can't stick our
(10:24):
cleats in the freaking ground and hold the point, nothing
else matters. Like that is the one oh one peewee
football level of like starts and stops, like it has
to happen right there. And for years I felt like
this discussion about the skill groups and outside and building
the team inside like all that it was like overblown
(10:44):
to the point of like, well, there's different ways it's
gonna cap, but if it's this bad, if it's that
this level, nothing else is gonna matter. And I never
would have thought it would have been at this level
at this point of the season.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
I don't think anybody did. Shoot.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
I was at press conferences this summer where everybody everybody
on the beat was asking, you know, so, hey, you
and Bradley and Jalen like for chop, like you guys
might have the best edge group in the league. Hey,
this off ball linebacker position. You got four players that
can play.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
It's deep. It's one of the deepest groups.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Hey, Zack Seedler, Kenneth Grant looks pretty good, and Banito
Jones is playing well. Like, you guys have one of
the better front sevens in the NFL. Right, that was
what everybody was talking about with this Dolphins football team.
So as much as I'm like trying to say, yeah,
I didn't mean to be that wrong, like we were
all wrong about it at least so far. So it's
up to those guys to put their foot in the ground,
like literally and figuratively and get this thing stopped and fixed.
(11:31):
And I've been asked us a few times like what
is so different about how the front is playing this year?
Speaker 1 (11:35):
And it just comes down to execution.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
We're gonna have Jamal bush Rod, my radio partner, on
the podcast tomorrow and developing a nice rapport with dramon.
It's coming along here. You know, doing shows with someone
at the start is kind of tough when you don't
know them and their personality and their cues and their tics.
But we have kind of picked it up and I'm
excited about it because it's good for the radio show,
and it's great for the podcast and Dolphins HQ as well.
(11:58):
And Jerman's been so good at picking up like just
line of scrimmage tells and talking about that battle every week.
And I learned from him. I se next to him
and I just absorb what he talks about. And he's
talked about that lateral flow, the concept of two gapping,
and look, a lot of teams play two gap defense
up front. It's essentially two gaping is playing more read
and react and you can, you know, shed the block
(12:19):
in either gap, and one gaping is penetration, get upfield,
man your gap and force the offense to adjust accordingly.
And I felt last year Zach played more of that
penetration role and had opportunities off the edge of the
five technique and he could just kind of shoot the
B gap and play from there. And we saw that
in the Carolina game and spurts at least the second
play of the game, he blows up a screen by
(12:40):
ripping up field between the tackle and the guard and
putting the quarterback under immediate duress. But when you start
laterally and they get these combinations where they're the ones
that kind of come off the ball and move more
towards you than you towards them, because even when you
two gap, you have to go meet the tackle or
the guard or the center where he is. You have
to go be the one that engages that contact, you know,
(13:00):
physically in the tennis system. And because we're not doing that,
it's so easy for the opposition to uproot us, and
you just cannot win a football game. It doesn't matter
what you do on offense, doesn't matter in the secondary.
If you can't not not get uprooted down in and
down out in the running game, you're gonna lose every
single football game you play.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
So that's the thing.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
They gotta find a way to be more productive on
the defensive line, at defensive tackle, off the edge, across
the entire board. Now, with that said, that was my spiel.
We're fifteen minutes into the podcast. Almost as far as
the personnel and the matchups go. When it comes to
the Chargers offense, the offensive line is a mystery. I
don't know what they're going to run out there. We
know Slater is out. It's Thursday, so we're gonna get
more information on injury reports there coming up. Joe alt
(13:41):
I suppose could push to play, but he's two weeks
removed from a high ankle sprain, so even if he
does play, how healthy is he. Mackay Beckton left the
game with a finger injury on Sunday. Trey Pipkins, who
is the right tackle who's filling in for alt who
moved to the left side of filling for Slater who
was also out. He left the game last week, came
back in and left again. And we know for sure
Hampton and Harris are out, so there's a possibility here.
(14:04):
The Chargers are without their top three tackles, their right guard,
and just to be clear, Slater and all are Pro
Bowl caliber players, and Makai Becten is the next best
player on the offensive line, So all three of those
guys are out, the backup to the tackle might be out,
like the third backup behind Slater and alter A out
who's probably the next best guy on the offensive line
after that too. And we know they're going to be
(14:24):
without their two backs. Will Distley is their best blocking
tight end and their best tight end in general, and
he might be out. He could be activated off ir
this week. So they are banged up. And I sit
here and go through all of this, And I mean
I just talked about with the Panthers, like I thought
Chubb and Phillips and Chopp might have a matchup advantage there,
you know. And at right tackle, I think Chop will
(14:45):
this week if it is Celure that goes in that
right tackle position or Foster Surrell. And at the left
tackle position, Beachubb I think is he's kind of playing
a little bit slow right now, but I think if
you know, he gets a matchup that he can win,
he can put some numbers up. And Jalen Phillips I
think is coming along as well. So and if there's
a week to get it going for these guys defensive tackle,
for Zach Seeler, for all the edges, it's this week.
(15:06):
I mean, they're so banged up. I don't think it's
worth getting into the individual matchups because I don't know
who it's gonna be. But I know this, we have
to leverage better, we have to play at better pad level,
We have to get more consistent knockback. Jordan Phillips is
the only one that does it on a regular basis.
But we also heard from Mike McDaniel on Monday, and
I mean Agreer disagreed the need for overall connectivity from
(15:28):
the entire run defense, and that even extends out to
the cornerbacks where Rico Daddle's able to turn twenty additional
yards after a twelve yard game because we just throw
punches of the football and are reckless in our fits
and don't read leverage properly, like it's gonna take all
eleven even if the Chargers are banged up. You can't
play that way and win football games. Let's go ahead
(15:48):
and pause right there. That was longer than I wanted
it to be, and come back and talk about the
rest of the offense and the Chargers defense and plenty
more to come here on the Thursday preview edition of
Dolphins and Chargers Draft Time podcast, brought to you by
Auto Nation. Probably was a little bit premature on the
going to break right there, because I have like two
more paragraphs, two more parts of the rundown to talk
(16:11):
about here ahead of the Chargers defense, because I want
to talk about this in the quarterback section of things,
but talking about the receivers and passing game options for
the Chargers. Quentin Jefferson's Johnston Sorry, his emergence in the
passing game Keenan Allen's resurgence, and then Lad McConkey and
what he did last year. And Allen's been eating into
the production of Ladd from last season because he's getting
some of those easy looks from the slot that that
(16:33):
I think Ladd got. Now, Lad's a great player and
I think he's going to produce a lot in this league,
but his numbers are down this year, and of course
you know Quinton Johnson is eating into that as well.
And a lot of his drops that he had last
year have now become big plays. So they've got options
more so than they had last year for sure, and
it's going to be in confined spaces. They love to
get their crossers in behind linebackers, and then there's just
(16:53):
a really natural feel for the entire lot of this
group when Herbert goes off script for each guy to
follow him and get in the right spot. So the
critical element here when he goes back to pass is
to not let him escape to his right. It's kind
of like a Ryan Tannehill thing. Make him go left
and up into the pocket and don't let him run
and beat you either, and then try to get the
ball out on time because if he plays more of
a rhythm timing game. That's when you can really get Herbert.
(17:17):
You can kind of get after him a little bit.
The challenge here for Miami is the fact that we
are so depleted at nickel, and I think it'll be
a healthy mix of big nickel, because I mean, what
are your other options, Like Kendall Sheffield just got called up,
Jordan Colbert got called up. I think Colbert's audition is
probably more of a special team's ask as we see
more big nickel, possibly dime packages that has four defensive
(17:37):
has four safeties, because I mean, what are you going
to do at cornerback?
Speaker 1 (17:41):
I mean, cater.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
Obviously is down, Jason Marshall is down, Cornell Armstrong just
went down, Storm Duck is down. Cameron Dance from the
train camp is down. Like geez, every year this position, man,
I swear it doesn't ever survive the season. But the
challenge here for Miami is trying to find out who
can cover that slot because it's their best option in
the passing game. I think it's a Minka Fitzpatrick matchup.
I would go Minka on Keenan Allen and try to
(18:03):
win that matchup with your best player and then it's
Big Nickel possibly four safeties with Ashton Davis in the post,
and then Dante Trader and Ifi Mela Fon. We were
kind of rotating in that box and crossing Crosser Crosser's
robber roll as he steps down. So big challenge in
this part of the game. As for the Chargers defense,
some names that you guys are familiar with. But first
they add Odafe Oway in a trade on Tuesday. He
(18:25):
will help them, but how much will he help him
this week? It can't be a lot, right, I'm sure
he'll get in there for some sub package rush opportunities,
which further increases the need to be good on first
and second down. But as you heard from Money yesterday,
they have really missed Khalil Mack. His absence spars that
way trade and then Denzel Perriman could return this week,
(18:46):
but there's a good chance there without both those guys,
they'll definitely be without Mac and they can't really stop
the run off the edge and they can't really get
after the quarterback because of that. So that's where Oway
comes in. We'll get into the concept of them defending
from light boxes on early downs, but they want you
to drive the entire field and they trust that you
will eventually make a mistake, but you pull which I
mean that's I guarantee you. That's gonna be the mode
(19:07):
of operation this week against the Dolphins team that lately
has been cleaned up. But what's been one of the
bigger bugga boots for this offense in recent years. It's
the operation and delays and timeouts and shifts and formations
and ineligible guys downfield, Like, you're gonna have to find
a way to get that buttoned up this week because
the Chargers will make you go six, seven, eight yards
at a time. Now pull up the Giants tape and
their best plays were Cam Skataboo hitting a lead block
(19:28):
on Jackson Dart runs and I love Love Love dayon Henley.
But he's not a stack and shed backer and that
calls for a big alec Ingold game. But at the
same time, that's what the Panthers game called for. You know,
let's put Trayvon Merrick down on the fit and let's
have you know, defend these twenty one personnel groupings, which
is two backs, one tight end alec Ingold with nickel personnel.
(19:51):
I mean, we've talked about that against Buffalo for six years. Now,
if you're gonna play Nickel, we're gonna run two back
personnel and run power, and run pin and poll and
run counter and run lead and just overpower you. And
in the Buffalo game back in twenty twenty two, the
Dolphins ripped off a billion rushing yards is including that
sixty five yard whatever run that Raheem Moster had in
the first quarter because of that exact grouping. But now
(20:12):
the Panthers make this shift to this type of defense,
and they played thirty six snaps in that game of
what was it fifty seven with six or fewer guys
in the box. It's a light box. Run the football,
run power. You don't have to get on the edge
against that. Right, So that to me is the proper pivot.
But I mean, Hemley's two twenty five. That's the same
size as Troy Dye, the other linebacker, who I think
(20:33):
is kind of a jag. So can we add hats
against these light boxes? Can we play power? Can we
play downhill? Ca We just hit a couple double teams
and let Allie Gordon go pound one inside. You could
get engled, you can get brewery, you can get Jonah
all your biggest bodies into the second level and don't
allow those linebackers to play clean.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
If they're unblocked, they'll make plays.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
But if you climb up to the second level and
put a big body in front of them, you can
run it down these guys' throats because Tier Tart, he's
their best layer up front. He's quick as a hiccup,
but he's not He can get you over extended by
one gapping, but he can take himself out of plays.
You can double him and take away that explosiveness and
then rely on the rest of your guys to win
one on ones against players that aren't that flashy, like
(21:13):
he can get on your shoulder and overpower half your body.
That's an area where you're concerned about Jonas Ivitanaya, who
has struggled in that exact regard all season long. But
I would just help help on d R. Tart and
that gives you a matchups against Jamari Caldwell and Toshan Hand,
who are one dimensional players like they there's not a
lot into their game. Hands a nice player, but Caldwell
(21:35):
is a space eater. Hand is kind of a let
me power through you and just kind of outmotor you
to the quarterback.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
Into the running play to the running game.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
You have to find ways to win these one on
ones so you can help elsewhere. And I wonder if
they try to get call Well on Brewer because of
the size discrepancy, But they can scheme around that, getting
Brewer out in space and reaching Callwell either guard. But
if you do that, that opens up a one gap
run for Tart. He's the one that stirs all the
drink here, and that's why I'm curious what happens at
right guard.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
I imagine it will be Cole Strange again.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
We got the unfortunate news on Monday that Austin Jackson
and James Daniels are nowhere close to returning, nor is
leem Meikenberg and Andrew Meyer. So I guess we're gonna
play most of the season with like you know, O
line eight to nine guys getting out there, which I
didn't think was possible, but here we are in week six.
I think this is a potential Allie Gordon game. These
light boxes with two gapping defensive tackles who are not
(22:26):
expert block shutters. That's gonna be a light linebacker on
a potentially climbing combination on the offensive line, and a
big back who burrows through arm tackles and can run
through those linebackers. Like those linebackers don't bring the punch
to Olie Gordon, he can take it to them. He's
the more physical player of those three guys. Something to
consider here on early downs. And again though I'm not
(22:46):
super interested in taking Devon ah Chan off the field.
Speaker 1 (22:48):
But look at what he does a version a super receiver.
Look at what he did as a receiver.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
That's what I'm trying to say, Like, let's get creative here, man,
let's go twenty two personnel. Maybe it's go go thirty
one personnel.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
Dude.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Put Julian Hill out there as a tight end. Put
alec ingold make Devon a Chan be the second receiver
with with Jalen Wattle and Allie Gordon in the backfield.
Wattle on one side, Ache on the other. Hill is
the attached why and then Ingolden and Gordon in the backfield.
Like that's that's what I would do, But I don't know.
(23:22):
Now that said, I think one of the weak spots
on the Chargers' roster is the defensive line depth and
with a chance speed outside, you can lean on that.
In this heat, it's gonna be hot, it's gonna be humid,
and then you can counter that with the physicality inside
of the Chargers. Cornerbacks on the outside should say because
a Chan is not gonna be able to shed these
Chargers corners as easily as he did the Jets a
couple weeks ago, for instance. But man, if you can
(23:44):
stretch him with a Chan and pound it inside with
his pause with Ali Gordon like there, there's a lot
of yards to be had against this Chargers defense where
you don't even have to risk putting the ball in
the air. Now again, outside of Max's absence, and maybe
even with him, their best pass prushure is two le
tue Poloto. It's like wait till you hear jamontra I
say Jonah of Vit United tomorrow. That's my same hiccup there.
(24:05):
But he typically rushes the right side, and with Tart
being the mismatch that he can be for a left
guards a three technique. I tend to think that you
help Larry and just leave Patrick Paul by himself all
day long, whether it's oh way, whether it's twey Poloto
kicking over to that side, whoever it is. I would
put Pat on an island against almost anybody, and this
week for sure, and figure out your bumps and checks
(24:25):
and sides with Jonah on Tart and don't let that
batchup get too many too often become a one on
one matchup. I am scared though of Larry on Tooya
Poloto and Tart on Jonah. But outside of that, Miami
has all the advantages in this matchup. Up front. They
tackle extremely well on the screen game, so he probably
won't expect to hit, you know, explosives that way. I
think there's value to showing the screen game, but I
don't think it'd be an engine of your success in
(24:46):
this one of the way it can be against others,
and we were close on so many plays against the
Panthers last week. Maybe you can find one this week,
even though it's a good tackling team. But I probably
wouldn't venture towards that range too much. Tar Heap still
is at the forefront of that. He's one of the
best tackling cornerbacks in the league, and he brings that
temperament to his pass coverage. It is so critical for
him to get hands on reroutes with how they get
their sim pressures, because if you can beat that press,
(25:08):
you can really go after them in the middle of
the field in that ten to fifteen yard range. The
Giants got some hits in that area, and Dante Jackson
he's been really good too, So they're both physical and
with Wattle, I'm certain they're going to try to throw
him off of his routes and maybe that's where he
becomes a little more frequent of emotion. Man. Like we
saw last week that was even the deal with Tyreek, right,
Like it's weird how suddenly Waddle getting the right to
(25:29):
go in motion makes a better player. But moving Wattle
about the formation with the thought you know that might
you know, might be Nick Westbrook, a keename Elak Washington,
Headrick Wilson, Darren Waller flexed out in these bunches or
bigger guys who play with more power. They can hopefully
help thwart those reroutes from the line of scrimmage and
let Waddle get the free releases off of bunches and
(25:50):
off of motions. Derwin James is at the forefront of
all this stuff. He really makes life tough because of
his ability to impact the field at all three levels,
and jesse mentor leans into that he's the key to
their disguise. He's just as good of a blitzer as
he is a hook drop man or a man matchman
on the back end or in the slot as a
cover defender. So for TUA, you'll have to find number
three on every single play. And then I wrote this
(26:12):
about the safeties. Alohi Gilman and Elijah Molden are probably
the best tandem you haven't heard of or at least
talked about a lot. But here's an edit because they
just traded Gilman on Tuesday and I wrote this, You're
not gonna get busted in coverage here. They're perfect within
their rules, so it's up to the structure of the
offense to challenge those rules and flood their reeds. One
of the best elements of this defense is the interchangeability
(26:33):
of Molden and James as a nickel as a strong
safety type like those guys are interchangeable in those two roles. Now,
Gilman did play the most true safety snaps with the
Chargers on Sunday forty three. James never leaves the field,
but he's he's rarely an astatic position for more than
a play at a time because of the flexibility they
have on the back end, because now next up, Tony
(26:54):
Jefferson can fulfill that role. Who was a practice squad
elevation signed to the roster player early on. He played
sixteen snaps on Sunday and I went through every game
book this season. I don't know who the next player is.
And they're three nickel packages or they're sorry, they're three
safety they're big nickel packages. Because Dirwin's part of that,
Molden's part of that, Jefferson's part of that, but Kendall Williams, RJ.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
Mickens.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
Maybe it's just ser Taylor who can play backup nickel
and you put Durwin back and more of a safety role.
But that would pigeonhole your best player. So it's like
the offensive line. I don't know what to expect here.
So my original preview thought was they do not bust coverages,
but who knows, maybe with a new combination back there,
they can. But yeah, you got to find a way
to if they're going to keep Drwin more static, I
(27:36):
think you can find ways to influence that with the
w Waller waddle combination with those motions, with those stacks
and bunches, and continue hit those two man route combos,
and hey, maybe it's a week for Taj Washington. I
think he and his speed off of Wattle could pub
possibly have an impact on this game.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
But we shall see.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Let's go ahead and take our last break, right there,
come back into the schemes of these this team, the
quarterback discussion. We'll talk about what's the stake he's a victory,
and predict the game.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
All of that.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
Next Draft Time podcast brought to you by AutoNation No Right,
we're back with the scheme calling cards. Dolphins offense first
Chargers defense, and this segment was made for this unit
of this football team. Their calling card is the ability
to disguise with late rotation to set up fire zones.
(28:21):
And I watched the Giants tape and there were so
many plays where I thought, Okay, this is two man
or this is cover one and then the pass off
to quickly match. And Tua has to be on his
absolute best against this group because I think if you're
looking for, you know, scheme, and not even just the scheme,
more so the understanding of the rules and playing within
the structure of the scheme. They are so well coached,
(28:44):
but a scheme that by design should be a tough
matchup for Miami in this one, we love to beat
you by playing faster than you, by playing on time. Well,
nobody does a better job of changing the picture in
the first two seconds to you drop back and you
can and can make you play blind to it, besides
maybe Brian Flores. Then on top of that, they can
physically alter how you get to your landmarks because they're
(29:05):
a big team. They've got a big defensive line, big edges,
big corners. It's their brand, right, It's who the Chargers are.
The aspect of the Giants game plan that got them
was the quarterback run. And when you look at their usage,
I had to deep dive this because it confused me
going into Week five. If they're season long percentages of
personnel groupings where Nickel fifty four percent, Dime at thirty
five percent, and that's eighty nine percent of their groupings,
(29:29):
which is five defensive backs, which further confuses me about
the trade of a lowhi Gilman and I thought, well,
they don't match personnel, But then I pull up the
Giants and Broncos game logs and they were matching, Like.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
Why is that? Why would Denver do that?
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Brian win Horse asks because I went back to the
Chiefs and Raiders games in Week one and two and
they did not match. Those teams would operate from less
than two receiver sets and they're still in their nickel.
But then I went and looked a little deeper. Khalil
Mack got hurt in Game two, but more so I
think it was the threat of quarterback run because Mahomes
can scram but he's on a designed run quarterback. Neither
(30:02):
is Geno Smith, but Bo Nicks and Jackson Dart are,
So what is Tua more Gino?
Speaker 1 (30:07):
Right?
Speaker 2 (30:07):
So I think the expectation there would be that you
see them stay in their nickel package, and that brings
about the same thing we talked about against the Bills
every year. I talked about it already in the Panthers
game twenty one twelve twenty two personnel two backs or
two tight ends or two backs and two tight ends
and get that run game going. So the way you
can remove them from their creative design and disguise is
(30:28):
to run the football. It's simple, but it's the way
and maybe it's more power than trying to hit moving
landmarks off the edge and try to go after a
soft edge group, which, trust me, I get the idea
of your outside zone scheme against the soft edge group
is enticing. But if it doesn't work, maybe you go inside. Also,
when they show pressure and back out a sim pressure,
they will have the hook drop players engage the offensive line,
(30:50):
they'll touch them to make sure they declare and step
up and free up gap for somebody else. So this
can cause more breakdowns in your pass pro but it
also makes them two steps later to get back into
the hook drop, and then from there they'll drop a
safety to where they think that hot is and leave
their weak side hook vacant. That's kind of where you
have to get to. We saw Julian Hill catch a
couple of footballs over the ball this week.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
More of that. To put a bow on this, I
don't think they'll blitz a ton.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
Their philosophy is to win on early downs with their
light boxes to get to their pressure packages. So if
you keep them out of those, you'll have some success.
Winning early downs is critical, and spoiler will be a
key for this game. They blitched just eighteen percent of
the time, that's twenty seventh most in the NFL, but
their twenty five percent pressure rate is seventh best in
the National Football League, although it has decreased each of
(31:35):
the last three games defensively against the Chargers' offense scheme
calling cards. The biggest single surprise in the NFL this
year to me is that Chargers pass over expected rate
number one in the NFL. And I talked this offseason
about how I didn't really like the approach in twenty
twenty four, kind of every drive that ends in a
kick is a good drive philosophy. And then they drafted
(31:55):
running back in round one, a big receiver. In round two,
they signed Mike Williams. They simon McKay beck Dan It's like, okay,
it's gonna be more of the same, and they do
a total rug pull and become the most pass heavy
team in the NFL and early downs, so you have
to expect that. And the way teams have gotten us
gotten them out of that, well, you got to hit
the quarterback. No QB has been hit or pressured more
of this year than justin Herbert, and part of that's
(32:17):
on him, right, that's not an offensive line stat. All
the time, the quarterback can help, you know, mitigate that
as well. And that's how you wind up with As
we transition to our next bit here on the Thursday
Preview podcast, Travis versus Justin Herbert once again, and no
one cares about this outside of Travis. But let me
state this, I am not going to forecast any of
this playing out in the game. I learned my lesson
(32:39):
on that with Rico Daddell, didn't I just watch Rico
run for fourteen yards over the next three games, like
just you watch, but it starts with us Kapeese like
that disclaimer off the top, because Justin Herbert is who
we thought he was and we can't let him off
the hook.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
But no, Herbert ranks forty ninth.
Speaker 2 (32:57):
Huhne, Yeah, that's right, forty ninth among quarterbacks right now
in EPA per play. He's thirty second in success rate,
twenty first and passer rating. His SAC percentage is eight
point two five percent, that's eighth most in the NFL.
(33:18):
And he's turned the ball over five times. That's tied
with Tua, Nix and Purdy for six most in the NFL.
And look, everyone is going to point to the injuries
his tackles are hurt. I get it, it's tough to
overcome that stuff. But I really, really really hate blanket blame.
Blake could blame in a twenty two man sport that's
taking shortcuts.
Speaker 1 (33:37):
That's how a Twitter.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
Fan comes upon their indignant opinion despite not really doing
the work behind it, the leg work behind it, right.
I don't trying to disparage anybody out there, but there's
a lot of that in this league.
Speaker 1 (33:50):
Shoot.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
I know, I probably know one percent of this game,
and I'm next to the coaches all day long. You
can evaluate any player on any snap, regardless of circumstances.
My whole entire point because I saw a Baker Mayfield.
I saw that thing. That thing came in here while
I will sleep on the couch. That's a deep cut
from I think you should leave. If you haven't seen
that show, go watch it. I saw Baker Mayfield win games,
win a game this year without Tristan Wurf's the best
(34:14):
tackle in the world, Lane Johnson Pine sul Tristan Warps
is the best tackle in the world.
Speaker 1 (34:20):
He was in Iowa.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
You could tell Luke A DECKI also a pro bowler,
and Cody Muck also a pro bowler. It's three pro bowlers.
Also didn't have Mike Evans, and he won a game
without those guys. With Herbert lost of the freaking Giants.
With Herbert, when he's protected and when he can get
out of pressures, there are few players better. Right. He's
top ten quarterback, Yeah, top twelve quarterback. I'll give him
(34:41):
that all day long. But if you can pressure him,
if you can blitz him, and you can blitz out
of his escape hatches, notably off the right side, you
can force bad decisions, you can force a rat at placement,
and you can kill drives with the sacks that he
will take. Go back to twenty twenty three game on
the line, we just had the Tyreek Hill touchdown to
win the game, to go ahead. We blitzed him, leave
hot uncovered, never sees it eats a sack game over boom,
(35:02):
get out of here, youboso. So if you can take
away that first read, funny how that works and keep
him in the pocket, you can create a lot of negatives.
And with their banged up run game, the hope has
to be you get them into third longs all game
long and attack accordingly. I'm I know I'm right on this.
The Dolphins might not prove me right. So just know
(35:23):
that all this talk about that he could throw for
three hundred and forty yards and three touchdowns in this game,
it's very possible. But he won't do it all year long.
I can tell you that much our quarterback. They're gonna
try like hell to slow down his process. The Chargers
are and then bait him with late reactions. So if
we get sharp Tua where he's seeing it and playing
ahead of the pace at all times, we will cook
in this game. If they can consistently create situations where
he is up in true dropback situations, constantly high leverage,
(35:47):
read it out type of plays, then their likelihood of
forcing mistakes and takeaways and turn this game into a
laugher increases by every time they can do that. You
can negate this with early down success or the quarterback
playing really, really good.
Speaker 1 (35:59):
Both were on the table.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Both of those things have happened this year, just very
rarely in accordance with one another. I thought Tua was
sharp in Carolina. I think two things can be true
at the same time. Tua has to hit that pass
to Waddle on the final drive, and it also is
hard to win when the opposing team runs for two
hundred and thirty nine yards and Tua has to play
to a certain level for his team to get the
win because right now we're not playing well in many
(36:22):
other areas. Because go look at the numbers, and after
a tough start to the season, here he is again.
He's third in touchdown passes, he's fourth in completion percentage.
His passer rating is over one hundred, which there are
fifteen quarterbacks that have that right now. Game continues to
evolve in a certain way. But the point is, I
think Tua is already beginning to level out from what
was a bad start to the season, and I expect
(36:44):
that to continue for the rest of the year because
that's who's always been in his career. Which look, maybe
the early frustrations brought out a little bit of a
harsh critique of Tua. I don't think so, because my
eyes don't deceive me, you know. My eyes tell me
better than these numbers do. But with the numbers and
the limitations, those have become more noticeable this year to me,
not that they weren't before, but it's more so now.
In my opinion, I think where two had kind of
(37:05):
settled into that ten to twelve quarterback range when healthy.
I think it's probably like fourteen to sixteen right now,
which is okay.
Speaker 1 (37:10):
It's not great.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
You can obviously, if you can do better, go ahead
and do better. It's tough to get better than that, though,
because quarterbacks don't grow on trees. But when you have
that with the current issues this team has, that's how
you go one and four. So that's the whole spiel,
special teams and miscellaneous. I think it's really solid as
of late. You got another good kickoff return from Lake
Washington ahead of the go ahead touchdown on the fourth quarter.
(37:32):
Jake Bailey is kicking the crap out of the football.
You down them with the two yard line of this game,
Elijah Campbell's on like a Pro Bowl specialist. Paced Riley
Passion has not missed a kick. As for the Chargers,
actually I found this data. The Dolphins rank fourth and
expected points added and the Chargers are twenty fifth on
special teams. So Miami can possibly steal some points here
in the margins. What's at stake? Listen, I think the
(37:53):
hardest thing, well, hang on like for me each week
this section and just my position in general, like seventeen
to nothing to the Panthers, I'm thinking two and three.
I'm thinking they can upset the Chargers. Maybe they get
on a roll, then you blow it in the other
direction and it's like, well, top five pick right. I'm emotional.
I'm fully in the show me mode before I buy
(38:14):
into anything. But this is a very depleted Chargers team
that's not playing good football right now, and they're going
to come across the country at a one o'clock kickoff
in the heat, and you win the game, and the
mind goes to, well, hey, the Browns are starting to
Rickie quarterback in this loss of the Carson Wentz, and hey,
the Falcons are far from an automatic l then, like
the Ravens on a short week with a possibly injured
(38:35):
quarterback there who just traded a productive pass rusher amid
they're disappointing one in four star are they punting on
the season? Like you allow yourself to look at the
bigger picture, but then reality kind of comes back into
focus because in the past, the last three or four years,
like those games were automatic wins for this team.
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Right now, they're not that right now.
Speaker 2 (38:53):
So I'm very well aware of that, But I think
the hardest thing to me is just the slate of
the aft, the state of the AFC. Sorry, the Bills
are vulnerable, right, their defense is struggling. The Chiefs are
very vulnerable. This also Jacksonville, the Ravens like they're one
and four. The Bengals are cooked. And now that's the
top four teams, like with the top four quarterbacks, and
they all have like vulnerabilities. And now we see these decent,
(39:15):
not great, but decent teams like the Patriots and the
Jags popping.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
Up, and it's like that could have been us.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
If we could just had a chance stay in bounds
on that four and get that fourth down stop against
the Panthers, you could just be three and two and
right in that mix. But we're not, because that's the league,
because the good teams find ways to make those plays, right.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
So what's at stake?
Speaker 2 (39:32):
If you can win this one, you open the door
of the possibility of possibly beginning to think about starting
to get back in things. That's a South Park reference
that the Man Bear Pick episode. But if you lose,
probably not. That's what I've got for the what's at
stake here? My keys to victory Number one, You have
to consistently win on early downs and offense. If the
Chargers get youven third long, be able to kill us.
Number two, be perpetually aware of Derwin James's alignment. He
(39:54):
is the key to the disguise, and that disguise is
the key to the defense.
Speaker 1 (39:58):
Number three.
Speaker 2 (39:58):
Hold the point of attack on d defense because this
is a very banged up offensive line with backup running
back after backup running back. Do not let them push
you around the way the Panthers did again, because that
would be if you can't do it now, when can
you do it?
Speaker 1 (40:10):
The prediction.
Speaker 2 (40:12):
I think the Chargers are ripe for the picking. Are
we in a position to do that that? I don't know.
My lean is that this is a rock fight type
of a game. But then I think can the Dolphins
defense right now do anything to get us to that point?
I just don't know, kind of have to see it
right It's a wait and see mode. So if the
tilt of this matchup in terms of the favoring is
the Dolphins defense has the advantage over their banged up offense,
(40:35):
but their defense has the advantage over our offense, like
that's the Chargers benefit because that defense is good, whereas
our benefit is because they're so banged up. So because
of that, I think I have to go loss. I
think I'll go a lot of field goals. So twenty
three to sixteen Chargers win. You all, please be sure
(40:55):
to subscribe to the podcast, leave us a rating, leave
us a review, follow me on social app linkol NFL
the team at Miami Dolphins. Check out the YouTube channel
for Dolphins HQ. I am so proud of the Gilling
Waddle break down. Go ahead and check it out this
week if you have not done so already. And last
but not least, Miami Dolphins dot com until next time.
Friend Caroline Cameron and Willow Daddy. He's coming home.
Speaker 1 (41:14):
Go Mariners.
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