Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
To remove Dallan Deep speedless, peace, do hell Peas. From
the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
This is Drivetime with Travis Wingfield.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
He's got my havnds in the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
What is up Dolphins? And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast.
I am your host, Travis Wingfield. And on today's show,
just previewing the biggest game of the entire season.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
No big deal.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
We'll take a look at the critical matchups and everything
you need to know ahead of Dolphins and Texans on Sunday.
From the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex.
This is the Drive Time Podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Maggie Duff.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Week fifteen at the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, one
o'clock kickoff ONBS Gonna be played indoors. They keep the
roof closed this time of year at NRG. I was
interested in this. I went and looked it up. TUA
is five and one all time in domes and one
and one and retractable roof stadiums.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Can you can't? Can you know these games? Can you
name these games?
Speaker 3 (01:18):
I had to cheat, but only because I didn't know
what Las Vegass roof was comprised of retractable or an
actual roof. It is the latter. It's a dome that
does not open up. But I went backward and man,
we play we play so few games indoors. Are you
guys like aware of this? Our division, the entire AFC
North being outdoor stadiums, you have two retractable roofs in
(01:41):
the South and two indoor facilities in the West. But
in the NFC you've got seven indoor or retractable, so
it's a four to seven split. So I guess that
pretty much tracks as to why we don't play that
many games indoors. Anyway, the games we have played indoors
under Tua was the Rams earlier this year, the Chargers
last year. So so far has been a nice play
for us to play the Lions back in twenty twenty two,
(02:02):
which was right before they began this run as the
best team in football. As far as the record goes
over the last two and a half seasons, the Saints
in twenty one that Ian book game that was ugly,
and the Raiders back in twenty twenty which Tua got
benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick in and the lone loss is
the game in twenty twenty two at the Chargers retractable
roof games twenty twenty against the Cardinals to hiss rookie season,
(02:23):
the famous Cardinals game, and this one's harder. It was
the loss in Frankfurt last year. Technically that is a
retractable roof in Germany over there, so interesting facts there.
I think this bodes well for the Dolphins offense ability
to hit their explosive plays and play sharp and play
their best game because footing will be good on artificial turf.
Let's go ahead, meet the team, this gun try to
(02:44):
stop this Dolphins offense and team in general.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
In the Houston Texans.
Speaker 3 (02:48):
We have not played the Houston since twenty twenty two,
and we haven't been in Houston since twenty eighteen?
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Can you believe that? And who boy?
Speaker 3 (02:56):
They are the prime example of how quickly things can
change in this league. You might remember just two years ago, hell,
even this time last year, before they got hot, they
were still kind of this upstart, young team that was
kind of fun to watch under Demico Ryans three years
three head coaches, starting back in twenty twenty when they
dismissed Bill O'Brien and somehow finished with four wins despite
(03:17):
having good version of Deshaun Watson back then, which helped
us get the third pick in the draft and would
turn into another number one pick and Jelen Waddle pretty
good there. Then they go David Coley for a year,
who was a sacrificial lamb who won four games for
a team that was supposed to win zero games, and
they still fired him. They had a couple of years
there after they depleted their draft cupboards where they signed
(03:40):
like thirty free agents and like twenty five of those
deals were one year contracts. It was one of the
weirder teams in terms of construction that was hurting for talent,
but wasn't a young team at the exact same time
that I can ever remember. Very strange dichotomy. They had
like a team chaplain who was like making personnel decisions.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
I guess Jesus take the wheel.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
You know.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
That continues into the Lovey Smith year where he goes
three thirteen and one, and you might remember his big
middle finger to the entire organization where everybody knew he
was getting fired, and he winds up pulling out a
victory from the jaws of defeat in Week eighteen that
gave the Panthers the first pick, and actually Lovey did
them a favor, although I think that the Panthers were
(04:22):
the only team in the league that was going to
take Bryce Young theer one overall, but it wound up
getting in the better quarterback in the class that year
with CJ. Stroud, And that is where things end or change,
I should say, when you get one of the best
rookie quarterback performances this league has ever seen. So they
bring in Damiko Ryans, who this offseason rounds out his
defense to fit what he's looking for. So in the
(04:43):
matter of three years, they go from one of the
most talent poor franchises to a team that has a
star quarterback Stefan Diggs, although he's down, Nico Collins, Tank
Dell Dalton Schultz, Joe Mixon, Laramie Tunsel. I'm not gonna
put Tye Howard in there. He's a decent player. Daniel Hunter,
will Anderson, Deniko Loxrey, Derek Stingley, Jalen Peatrie, Jimmy Ward.
They are a very talented football team, a popular dark
(05:05):
horse Super Bowl pick this offseason, and they come out
of the gates on fire. With this five and one
start and kind of validate what everyone said about this
football team, but have really really struggled in the seven
games since then, three and four. They have losses to
the Jets and Titans. In there, those wins are against
the Jags and the Cowboys, and I'm forgetting one more.
(05:26):
They beat Jacksonville twenty three to twenty before their bye week,
and quite frankly, I think the bye week came at
the perfect time for them. But we'll see if it
helps them get things corrected or if they come out
of the bi week a little bit rusty. We've seen
that happen to this Dolphins team a couple of times,
so hopefully that's the case for Houston this week. Hopefully
we force them into that and just you know, make
them go back to the drawing board. And man, they
(05:47):
have to be locked in on this game because if
they don't win this one, they go to Kansas City
next week on a Saturday for a short week game.
Then they have an even shorter week playing on Christmas.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Just what is that?
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Four days later, So they have a six day week
and then a four day week and it's against the
Ravens on Christmas. It is entirely conceivable that if we
can go in there and get this win, they could
be looking at falling to eight and eight heading into
their finale against the Titans. And if the Colts can
beat Denver, Tennessee and the Giants, the Texans would have
to win that game against the Titans and get help
(06:19):
for the Jags to beat the Colts on the season
finale to win the division. So to say, this is
a big game for both teams, it's a must win
for both teams.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
I think if Houston loses this game, I.
Speaker 3 (06:31):
Don't really trust the Colts, but I think there's a
I'm not going to predict it, but there's a real
possibility they lose the division if they do not beat
the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
You also know about the similarities.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Bobby Slowack was a coach on or with McDaniel and
San Francisco as well as in Washington. Similar offensive systems.
Of course, to MeeGo Ryans brings a defense that Mike
knows all too well from their time together in San Francisco.
Matt Burke is the defensive coordinator. Connections are a plenty.
Let's break down this massive, massive, massive, game in the AFC.
(07:03):
The Texans offense their schemes. So if you thought we
threw the ball to the middle of the field a lot,
just wait until you watch this Texans attack. Forty eight
percent of their throws go between the numbers. Well, actually
it's the exact same number as us, but our numbers,
I think are a little bit skewed to account for
the frequency of the screen game we run this year,
which has replaced our poor running game. But the Texans
(07:25):
numbers to the intermedia and deep portion are much higher
than ours. And that's kind of what I'm getting at here.
They start things with outside zone. You know that here
they haven't really employed a curveball to that it's a
three to one zone to man split. Ours is a
little bit less than two to one. And they run
the ball off tackle or wider on forty five percent
of their runs, and they just quite frankly, can't really
(07:45):
do it this year. I mean, you couldn't be more
familiar with this Texans scheme. They want to fire off
the football, create indecision with your eyes and your pre
snap motion and activity. But I think that teams have
been able to kind of stop this because they don't
respect their run game, especially with the one on one
struggles they've had inside. And I mean what I just
told you is kind of true of the Dolphins as well,
(08:07):
which I think should create even more appreciation for the
way two was playing right now. That's down the road
in this podcast though. They're not playing connected up front,
and it produces a lot of runs for nothing or
losses for that matter. You can backdoor them, you can
get them off their spot, you can impact their ability
to catch and climb with big, powerful players, which what
does Miami have inside but exactly that, and then off
(08:27):
that they want to run play pass, they want to
hit inbreakers against your displaced middle of the field defenders.
Based upon that play action game, I think a lot
of the time, timing and rhythm being thrown off has
really been the monkey wrench for this offense, if you will,
for them. Because of Stroud's nine interceptions, seven of them
have come in the middle of the field, and if
we can just get one or two of those this week,
(08:49):
I think we're gonna win this football game. Personnel groupings,
they run eleven personnel sixty two percent of the time,
twelve personnel thirty four percent of the time, which is
the third highest rate in the National Football League, and
they will go to three tight end sets here and
there three percent of the time.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
How do you attack it? How do I say this correctly?
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Like all summer, you know, the concern among our fan
base was the offensive line. And I saw one of
the trolls on Twitter that hates everything that we do
say like, oh, all you have to do is give
to a two top ten receivers, a top ten running back,
and a top five offensive line, Like really, dude, now
the offensive line's top five. Cool man, But if you think,
I think, if you look at the Texans season and
(09:26):
how that's transpired, what has happened there was the fear
that all the Dolphins fans have they had the Texans
have not been able to run the football and they
cannot protect CJ. Stroud, and that offense has regressed in
a major way, despite I think Stroud playing pretty much
the same level of football that he did last year.
I think the way to attack this version of this
(09:47):
offshoot of the Shanahan system is to do everything you
can to disrupt the edges. Do not let those tackles
get out in space, don't let the tight ends win.
You have to win those matchups frequently, and I think
you could sacrifice a a little bit inside in order
to accomplish that. Like we've seen Ramsey, we've seen Holland,
and even if you want to call on more base
for you know, Anthony Walker or Tyrell Dodson could be
(10:09):
a big spot for those guys. I think you have
to find a way to really set the temple on
the edge and then also be able to flood the
intermediate middle part of the field and trust that Seiler
and Campbell can win a bunch of inside rushes or
run game reps in terms of playing double teams, beating
one on one matchups and making the tackles on those plays,
so that Brooks and Walker can really focus on their
(10:31):
width and depth against both run and against coverage. And
that means you absolutely need a big game from Emmanuel Ogba.
Hopefully Bradley Chubb can can go. I would love to
have tyas Bowser for this game, but we do not,
so Chop, you're gonna have to step up the run
defense as well. Of course, when Campbell kicks outside, maybe
you get Mo Kamara, Maybe you'll get Cameron goodback here. Shoot,
maybe even move Seiler and Campbell both into some more
(10:55):
five tech roles to achieve that.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
So you know what it looks like.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
Let's go ahead and talk about the big three verse
the Texans offense. You have to shut down the run
and you have to do it from light boxes, because
I want to be more concerned about Nico Collins and
Tank Dell and John Metchi. Speaking of playing with light boxes,
did you know that we are the number one team
stopping the run in the NFL from light boxes? That
means less than seven to man box counts, So five
(11:20):
defensive backs out of the equation six or fewer men
in the box. Nobody gives up fewer rushing yards on
those looks per play then we do. And that is
very much to me. A Zach Sealer, A Jordan Brooks,
and a Kalais Campbell's stat Did you know that CJ.
Stroud has five hundred and four dropbacks this year and
one hundred and four of those have come on third
or fourth down and long, which is seven plus yards. Spoiler,
(11:43):
we'll have another key attached to this, but this is
the result you strive for with your run game. If
you can make ten of Stroud's forty ish dropbacks in
this game, or eight of the thirty five, whatever you
want to call it. If you can make them in
these situations, I love our chances to make some stops
and even more importantly, create some splash plays. Man, we
(12:04):
need to get back to taking the football away. It
feels like the last couple of years we have not
gotten anything by way of takeaways. We need more of that.
Please let's continue that in our second portion. But back
to the main thing here. And as we said in
our how do you attack it category, I think about bigger,
heavier edges like Ogball, Kamara, Seeler, Campbell.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
You look at their deployment.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
They want to involve their tight ends as attachments in
the outside running game, and I just think if we
can prevent them from stretching it out there, it creates
a world of issues for their offense. And Joe Mixon
is not like a super elusive shifty back who can
find those cutback lanes. He kind of wants to get
his head of steam rolling and make quick decisions from
there where he can sort of, you know, make one
(12:43):
cut and go, And I think that reduces the effectiveness
of their play pass game as well. It cuts off
their bootleg opportunities, which CJ. Stroud is very adept at doing,
and it makes the jobs of Brooks and Walker and
the safeties much much easier. If you can stop Joe
Mixon's feet on those stretch plays, I think you can
to shed blocks and give them serious issues and stack
up a lot of TFLs and runs for no gains.
(13:05):
But Itto Jones is playing, in my opinion, the best
football of his career. Deshan hand gives you a handful
of really good reps every single week in the rotational role,
and perhaps their gradual growth allows you to be more
flexible with both Campbell and Stealer. And this probably changes
if we get Bradley Chubb back as well as Cam Good,
and hopefully that would mean you could reduce some of
those snap counts outside for those guys and get Neil Farrell,
(13:27):
for instance, back to playing zero snaps, but especially chub Man.
What a great week it would be to get the
best edgesetter on the entire football team back in this
game against the Houston Texans. Not to mention next week
against the Niners, because it's gonna be the exact same thing,
and against the Browns in two weeks as well, so
hey beatchup. Good three games to come back for here,
Big Doug. All these stats go together for the Texans.
(13:48):
They have the most negative runs in football and a
run game that has a success rate ranking thirty first
the National Football League, which leads to Stroud being the
most pressured quarterback in the NFL. Let's cover that Texas
offensive line. Our second big thing, Number two, is to
create and punish third and long situations. Opposing defenses have
blitzed the Texans fewer times this year than what they
(14:09):
did last year, and already have more hurries and unblocked
pressures than they did a season ago, and there are
four games left to go. I think there's been a
few issues here. They haven't run it well and that
always makes life tough on a passing game. They aren't
scheming up those room service throws for Stroud, and he's
had to really parse through some slow developing route concepts,
(14:29):
and their spacing hasn't been very good. And speaking of
life coming at you fast in the NFL, go look
at the commentary among Texans fans on Bobby Slowick, and
I will I don't like listening to fan commentary on
offensive coordinators and play calls, because if you can't draw
a run fit, then you probably shouldn't be talking about
play calls, right, But the discourse has changed. Last year,
(14:50):
he was a head coaching candidate. This year folks want
him fired. And all of those things combined are a
terrible combination with the third issue, which is their pass protection.
Per ESPN Pass block data, the Texans have a blown
block or a loud pressure on thirty percent of their dropbacks.
It's the most in the NFL. The Patriots are second
from last and they're at twenty five percent. And we
(15:12):
saw how Miami did against that offensive line. If you
can replicate that pass rush in this game, you're gonna
run away with this game and reset some serious narratives
about the Dolphins. On Sunday, I think about where those
struggles come from. We've seen Chop really spearhead the pass
rush these last five or six weeks. We will run
sim pressures off the overload side and invite these doubles
(15:34):
and slides for isolation on Chop, like he's having that
big of an impact as a rookie, but in this game,
he's gonna get Titus Howard for most of the game,
and that's Houston's I mean, I guess it's their second
best pass protector, but.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
They've only got one good one.
Speaker 3 (15:48):
Larrymy Tunzel is kind of unbeatable, but he's the only
guy that can do it out there, and he will
draw some flags here there, So hopefully tuns Wi comits
a couple of penalties against us and gives us that win,
but he's gonna beat most guys that he faces. I
would honestly just throw Augby out there and kind of like, hey,
go occupy Touns. I'll make sure he's got you to
deal with. Now with Howard on Chop, I pulled up
(16:08):
his tape and he does some a really good job
of shortening the runway the way I talk about Tron
Armstead on speed rushers, but he also like really exposes
his inside gate. And Chopp has shown the ability to
win with speed, to convert that speed to power, and
to crash inside, especially on pass rush games. I think
you can get a little creative here. If you guys
saw the Chop breakdown on HQ or on YouTube wherever
(16:30):
the hell exists in our content, or rather, I think
I think it comes out tonight. Actually I showed a
lot of the plays where they overload the offenses left,
you know, the side that he's not on, and let
Chop go one on one off the offenses right, and
then they squeezed, you know, every rusher besides Chop and
he gets himself a one on one situation with a
two way go where he has that B gap and
the C gap to work with as a pass rusher.
(16:52):
And there's often a very large lane in that B gap,
especially with how they have to contend with Chop speed
around the edge, because he can he can stretch that
edge and then angle back and be effective opposed to
some rushers who just go past the quarterback and can't
angle back, and that makes that tackle set deeper, and
it creates a bigger B gap for someone like Zach Seeler,
(17:13):
who I would say is the best slanter among defensive
tackles in the NFL, with how he could cross face
from like a one technique position, cross face into that
guard and then he kind of hooks them there and
just plays right through them with his engagement of power
and just you basically walk them back into the quarterback. Now,
this does open up some vulnerabilities to the quarterback run
(17:34):
if you do that. But guess what, that ain't CJ.
Stroud's game. I think we have the athletes to come
from depth to stomp it out, whether it's Jordan Brooks
or Javon Holland, so kind of some keys within the
keys create one on ones. For Zach Seeler as a
pass rusher, chop really helps you do this, and you're
sim pressure like simp pressure the crap out of him.
With defensive linemans falling back into the hook zone. That
(17:54):
has caused a lot of confusion on their mesh and
crossing concepts to get their man beater looks and just
around out the offensive line here with their pass block efficiencies.
Tunsel is elite ninety eight point five. I think they'll
go with Juice Scruggs, who has a ninety seven point three,
and Kenyan Green could be the guy back in that
position is he's active for his twenty one day window,
but he has a ninety one point seven pbe so
(18:16):
beat the crap out of the left guard whoever it is.
Jarrett Patterson ninety eight point five, but he's not a
really good pass protector inside shack Mason's long in the
tooth ninety six point one at right guards a very
low number, and then Titus Howard ninety six point five.
We have to win this part of the matchup. Chopp
has to take Titus Howard to school, and Zach Seler
has to win his one on ones against inferior pass blockers.
(18:37):
If we can dominate like I think we can against
those guys, we will win this game. Let's go ahead
and take our first break right there. Come back on
the other side do the third big thing against the
Texans defense. We'll also talk about the offense, the range
of outcomes, prediction, and much much more. Next Draft Time podcast,
your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation.
(18:59):
These big games tend to cause more study and more
notes from me because I try to find how the
Dolphins can find victory, and every damn time I wind
up disappointed. Hopefully this time it's different because, as I
mentioned on the podcast yesterday, oh by the way, by
the way, quick cutoff, because I just forgot about it.
I picked the Rams to beat the Niners tonight on
Thursday night football, Rams over Niners, and yeah, to my
(19:21):
point that I cut myself off on. If you win
this game, you then get the rest of the Sunday
slate to have games that matter for the Dolphins. You
get a big Thursday game that matters for the Dolphins,
you get two Saturday games, and you get another one
o'clock slate with games that matter before you play the
nine Ers at four twenty five on Week sixteen. So
please win this game for the sake of the next
week of football to be a lot of fun and
(19:43):
just to keep us going right. Thing Number three to
beat this Texans team is to spam the intermediate middle
and the curl flat.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
What the hell does that mean?
Speaker 3 (19:50):
Between the numbers in the ten to nineteen yard range
and the curl flat zone which is about ten yards
downfield outside of the numbers. Those are the areas we
have to really concern ourselves with against Houston offense. Run
the ball to the wide, to the perimeter, to those
curl flat areas, and then throw the ball in the
intermediate part of the field that has been displaced because
of the linebackers stretching their way to get after the run.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
Game Downhill.
Speaker 3 (20:13):
Stroud rips the middle of the field as much as
anybody in the NFL, but there has been more mistakes
this year than there were last year. I mentioned these
seven interceptions of his nine coming in the middle of
the field, and they're mostly misfires where he just flat
out misses his guy. Can we get like one of those?
Can we get a quarterback that just misses his target
and we get a room service pick? Can we get
a pick like we had or the opportunities we had
(20:35):
against the Jets where both Braylan Allen and Jeremy Ruckert
basically bump the volleyball to know Kendall Fuller's direction and
we can't make a play on the football. Can we
just get one of those in one of these games
and like steal a possession and the steal seven points
Like that would be cool. Remember the Packers stole seven
points from us on the muff punt, Like, can we
get that just one time?
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Maybe?
Speaker 3 (20:53):
I don't know, but pressuring this guy long down in
distance make him uncomfortable. If we can do that and
get a takeaway or two, I think that's all our
offense would need to get the best of this matchup.
So all of these kind of you know, playoff of
one another, play the run with light boxes, get them
behind the sticks, try to confuse Stroud as much as
you possibly can into a double clutch. Then we get
forty four off the edge, ninety two inside and those
(21:15):
one on one chances in the past rush game while
you flood the middle of the field with your backers
and your safeties and possibly Jalen Ramsey. And the reason
I put Ramsey in there, I don't think.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
That we will be the shadow idea.
Speaker 3 (21:29):
Maybe maybe we put that in the trash bind for
a while, because you know, I add Ramsey in there
because quite frankly, I don't have a lean on how
you should call it. I think some of those wide
open receivers last week were because of the way you
shadowed on Garrett Wilson and it caused confusion elsewhere, which
those guys got it up their game as well. Cater Kohoo,
Javon Holland. I'm a little more inclined to have Ramsey
(21:50):
playing a lot more inside, to have him impact the
run and the rush game, because he can do that
as well as cover. You can blitz him more, but
also just be present in those positions to take away
their bread and butter. Like maybe some Charles Woodson type
of stuff.
Speaker 2 (22:02):
This week. I don't know. I trust Weed to cook
it up.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
I think Ramsey does match up better on Collins than
he did on Wilson because Collins's game was a little
bit more physical than shifty, and Ramsey is probably the
most physical cornerback in the league who kind of got
burnt on Wilson's shifting us a few times. Tank Dell
hasn't been as effective, but he is their deep threat
and he's had games that he's gone off in, so
I think you can always look for ways to sort
of bracket or funnel him, and hopefully your pressure can
(22:26):
help negate his ability as well, because of how much
you can force Stroud to not be able to step
up into one hitch opportunities to take his shots down
the field. We just have to do that and we
have to be better on backs and tight ends this
week in coverage Schultzen Mixon, they can make you pay
in that regard. They're better than the Jets guys were,
and those guys beat us pretty good. So to me,
it's a huge game for Ramsey, for Holland, for Brooks,
(22:47):
for Sealer, for Campbell, and for Chop. I mean, that's
kind of all the you know Kendall Fuller as well.
Kind of the good players in the defense right now,
Can we just get enough from the other guys and
give these players opportunities to go change the game defensively parts.
I just want to mention John Metchi, an electric player,
and he desires to be talked about here, even though
his numbers are pretty much non existent this year. I
just want to mention him because he is a good
(23:09):
football player, and without Stefan Diggs, you'd think they go
to him more often, but they have not done that
so far. Let's pivot here, quick pivot way. There is
more talking about this Texans defense against Tua Tongueo vay
Lowa and the Dolphins offense. Remember what we said about
the Jets. It's similar in a sense. I think the
Jets adjusted what they did against us, and probably do
in large part to not having Sauce in that game.
(23:31):
But up front you can almost replicate it here. One gap,
get upfield, try and backdoor those stretch and outside zone runs.
Go with blitzes and the sim pressures and critical and
obvious passing downs. Now where it's different is in the coverage.
The Texans do not play two man zero percent this
year two man coverage. Now, will they go to it
and surprise us? Maybe they had the byeway to install
(23:51):
that and they could do that. You can never count
it out, but I would be surprised if they do.
They live in nickel eighty six percent. They run their
base about seven percent and dime about six percent, so
it's basically a nickel defense and they run a lot
of big nickel. Four of their top six snap takers
on defense are safeties. Their calling card is quarters coverage.
What does that mean?
Speaker 2 (24:10):
Four high?
Speaker 3 (24:11):
You know, four defenders take a deep quarter of the field.
They run that at the third highest rate in the league,
and they can do some match from there. So it's
like show quarters and play man. So it's tricky to decipher,
but again, our quarterback is good at that. They also
love to mix in Cover three, which is of course
a defender in each deep third of the field. They
have some Cover six, which is a deep quarter, a
deep third and a deep third, so all ways to
(24:33):
keep the roof on top of the defense. They can
change the complexion of how it looks and how they
present it on a given play. But that's kind of
where their coverage gets its wins because they're personnel back there.
It's not great, and it's a lot harder against the
quarterback who sees things like Tuas. So they want to
confuse you with their coverage and then beat you with
their pass rush. It's going to be incumbent upon TUA
(24:53):
to decipher things very quickly. And who's doing that better
than NFL right now than Tuas. So I like our
chances in a controlled environment with our very loaded skill
group against a team that wants to beat you with disguise.
This is the guy you want to have for a
game like this. They're twenty three percent usage of man free.
We saw Miami carve the Patriots man coverage up right,
same with the Jets, and when they got some more
(25:14):
looks against the Packers in that way, they went after
that in the same same type of approach. I think
if they do play man free, they probably attach blitzes
to it, and so maybe you can try some of
those one hitch deep shots where you get your one
on one opportunities. But if they don't come, just beat
patient and attack these short intermediate areas. I am curious
to see if they do run more of the short
(25:34):
stuff for wreak and waddle. It was effective in that
game on Sunday, and maybe you give them more to
think about with that and basically say, hey, you can
play your three high safeties and your quarters coverage, but
we're it's gonna run these guys underneath and try to
force you out of that.
Speaker 2 (25:47):
How do you attack it?
Speaker 3 (25:48):
Well, you do have to stretch that shell, but you
have to have intermediate answers too. I think the key
to how this defense runs is kind of what Aziz
al Shayer does for them in terms of how he
can get deep into the hook but also play downhill
and play the width of the field with sheer physicality.
He's a tone setter guy that kind of he's kind
of bamf right, bad a m effort.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
I think it's a clean podcast.
Speaker 3 (26:13):
I think they'll have a lot tougher time defending the
middle of the field without him, as well as playing
the run with lighter boxes. We heard Tamiko Ryans call
him the heart and soul of their defense. Maybe he's
just trying to rally the other guys, but that seems
like a big loss to me. So in those looks,
I think it's paramount to win with the other guys, right,
guys not named Reek and Waddle. Now, I think we
did a good job of getting those guys underneath routes
(26:34):
on Sunday, But I fully believe either guy could have
a big game with out a ton of targets just
by how they lift the coverage, like go be a
decoy if you have to go block off the edge.
For us, the key is going to be keeping the
menu open and not let those pass rushers id their
one on one matchups and play super convicted. You have
to give them eye candy and keep their discipline and check.
The number one thing I look for against this Houston
(26:55):
defense is to neutralize Daniel Hunter and Will Anderson. Much
easier said than done, and my rally cry for just
about three years now has been that there is no
scheme in quarterback that mitigates good pass rushers like this one.
We've played games against Max Crosby, against Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence,
games against Mac and Bosa and never really let any
of those guys wreck games. We have the best quick
(27:17):
game in the NFL, for my money, one of the
game's best ball handlers in the quarterback. In the run
and screen game, and does a great job of making
run and play pass look all the same. And we
typically cook up our shots with max protect that can
make the quarterback really trust his protection. Sunday will be
the biggest test in that regard.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
This season.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
We have to take Hunter and Anderson out of the
game some way. Screen them to death, run rap, run
return rap, take fake rap like run it at them,
throw it behind them, throw those glances behind them if
we get in third and lungs. And this kind of
goes against every fiber of my football being to say this,
but you might just be best uted to play field position.
(27:56):
I'm talking third and twelve screens and runs. And you
heard DJ Banamy talk about it on the show yesterday.
Tua was probably gonna get sacked a couple times in
this game. Let's not let those sacks flip the field
or you know, produce turnovers and end the game. I
thought Lamb and Paul were really good on Sunday, but
this is a whole different test for these guys. Lamb
I think can do enough to win his one on
(28:17):
one matchup when he gets them. And while I think
Pat's good reps are as good as they come, he
still is a rookie learning the game who can kind
of click his feet together sometimes and not get his
weight transfer sorted. I think that that's something that guys
are going to try to take advantage of and overset
him and cross face where they burst out of the gate,
get him to take a vertical set cross face and
beat him back inside and he either grabs on hold
(28:38):
or just misses all together. He has to know that
they've seen that on tape and they're going to attack it,
And then Tua also has to be aware of that
and understand the escape routes he has off of that,
they could overload that and blitze it and cause that issue.
So he scrambles into the blitzer. But I think he's
capable of getting out of some of this pressure himself
and extending himself. And you can't really forecast this, but
(28:59):
you just kind of hope the way Hunter gets his
wins over there that maybe you don't get the additional
interior win at the same time, Like this is just
like total by chance, but maybe Hunter's wins come when
Deniko Autry gets blocked up on the inside, you know,
and Tua has such a good feel for pressure to
get away from one win, but if it's multiple wins,
that's obviously very difficult to overcome. I trust two us
(29:20):
pre snap. He's one of the best in the game.
I think the run game is so paramount for us
to stay ahead of the chains, keep the whole menu
on the table, and really get to our screen game.
It sounds like Raheem should be good to go. I
think this is a good game for him to get
a nice little workload, especially our wide zone runs where
he can stretch it and bang it and sort of
soften up those edges. I think we need a more
physical presence this weekend. And I trust him right now
(29:42):
more than I trust Jalen Wright, just because I think
Rice missing some assignments here and there. So Tua needs
to be super sharp. You have to play your best
game of the year. Probably Tua need a screen game
to be cranking. A Chan and John, who I think
are gonna have a lot of targets this week compared
to last week, and I think Raheem has to have
one of his best games of the season. Hunters a
seven twenty five percent player, Anderson right around seventy percent,
(30:02):
so there is a rotation there. I think you have
to be super privy to their plays off, like when
we take Campbell and Steeler off the field and teams
run the ball down our throats. Like if you see
one of those guys, check out, call your shot, play
and don't just wait until it's third and seven and
those guys are rearing to go, and let them just
pin their ears back. Deniko Autry is the guy inside
and plays a lot on the edge as well. But
(30:23):
I think it really thins out after that. So maybe
you can get those guys conditioning tested here. Maybe they
have they should have rested legs, but sometimes that can
that can be the opposite for you off a bye
week and really make them run. Guys like Derek Barnett
out there and and Tim Settle and get deep into
that rotation. I think Barnett's not you know, he's pretty
long in the two of these days and yeah, is
(30:43):
he is he even healthy right now?
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Yeah? I think he's up and going shoot. I probably
should check that out.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
Inside though, it's really space eaters and not pocket pushers,
Like Tim Settle is their nose and he's just a
tree trunk. Follo Fotacasi has some wiggle, but I think
you can. That's a matchup you're gonna have to win.
And then Mario Edwards is more power, you know, a
three to five technique subtype of rusher. It's such an
interesting matchup because typically our tackles are the matchup erasers.
But obviously Austin's down probably will not have Tron Armstead
(31:09):
and the Texan strength is off the edge too, So
I think if we can hold the four inside, we
should be okay. Fun matchup, last break right there, come
back on the other side. Take a look at keys
two and three of Varsu Texans defense, the range of outcomes,
what's at stake, the prediction, the keys to victory, all
of that coming your way. Draft Time podcast, your host
Travis Wingfield, brought to you by AutoNation. So close to
(31:32):
prediction time. What do you think I'm gonna say about
this game? Take advantage of the Texans aggressiveness and push
the ball downfield is my second key for the Dolphins offense.
I am really curious to see how they play us.
You heard djb Enemy talk about how they play it.
They want to span the middle of the field, they
want to get to their blitz looks on third and lungs.
They want to disguise and rotate their coverage. And what
makes me curious is if you're going to camp in
(31:55):
that quarter's look and if you blitz Tua, and if
you don't have your captain, your middle the field ace
in the hole, can you do those things without al Shayir?
I mean, Tua is so good at beating it when
you have all your guns. And we've seen Reek run
through many a quarter's looks for long touchdowns, you know,
against Philly, against New England last year, a couple of
off the top of the head examples of that. And
(32:15):
Houston only blitz this twenty four percent of the time.
It's below league average, but they time them up so
well against you know, vulnerable looks or empty looks, whatever
you want to call. It would be a nice week
to have some offensive line, the same offensive line combos
start and finish the game, just to get that continuity
all week. I don't want to have guys coming off
the bench and trying to figure out what the Texans
are doing.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
In the middle of the third quarter.
Speaker 3 (32:35):
So if they do play those looks, and just based
on Demico's comments, I think they will.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
He said, we have the right.
Speaker 3 (32:41):
We have the guys with the right mentality on the
edge with Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley. We just have
to play physical with the Lion of Scrimmage when we
get our opportunities. We have to play physical at the
Lione Scrimmage toll slow down Tyreek and while two times
in one quote he talks about bump and run and
disrupting our timing. Now that means we get cracks at
defeating the press and getting flybys, but it also means
something else, something I thought this entire offseason was all
(33:04):
about taking advantage of teams who do that by finding
different targets i e. John new Smith. So without al Shaiir,
they and that approach of man free. But if they
turn their back on the outside releases, like if Tyreek
takes an outside release and the cornerback you know, turns
and runs with him. That way, it opens up John
Whu on the slot screen that we hit for big
plays on the overtime drive and he can get rolling
(33:27):
after the catch and with the screen game as well,
which bodes very well for that first key, right, Like
if John Whu is the slot and Riek is the
one and he takes the outside release, you remove that
cornerback from the equation. You get a one on one
block and then it's John u versus a safety or
a slot cornerback one on one. That is exactly what
he got on those back to back plays against the Jets.
The linebacker in for al Shaiir, well, it's thin there, man.
(33:49):
It's Neville Hewitt. You know who he is. He's a
special team's ace, but playing on defense the entire game,
that ain't his game. And also if he does that,
are they gonna pull him off special teams? It makes
that phase weaker for the Texan. So it's a big loss,
a huge downgrade. Not to mention that Henry to Oh
to Toto.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
You're not gonna work here anywhere anyway.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
Like those aren't cover guys. So Johnny and a Chan
are kind of my clicks to pick this week. I
think we're back on that game plan. Then there's the
vertical element of it all, Like Derek Stingley is a
guy that I f like can match up with anybody,
and they feel that way. And if that's how you're
gonna play it, you have to say, all right, bet
we have Tyreek Hill and Jillen Waddell, and if you're
gonna go one on one against those guys, they're gonna
beat you. That's how you win big games. Your best
(34:28):
beats their best. But that doesn't mean you should go
after a willy nilly. I mean, I like Kamari Lassiter,
but he's still a rookie, and if you get safety
help away from him and he draws ten or seventeen,
that's a matchup you have to also like and go after.
And then I think there's some slot matchups you can
create since they basically bring a safety and I don't
like Caden Bollock is a really good deep safety. They
(34:48):
like to have Jimmy Ward come down and play some coverage,
maybe even a little bit of Jellan Peatree, but for
the most part, like they don't really have the cover
guys in those positions. I think Miami can create some
matchups and go out and win those. My third big
key here to execute in the red zone. And it's
sort of a shot at our defense. Like the Texans
offense has been broken for a while. They couldn't do
ish against a terrible Jags defense. But I don't know, man,
(35:10):
I don't know Jim just with the bye week and
what I think is a bunch of tired legs in
this Miami defense and an old Miami defense. I just
don't trust us to get consistent stops. And if that's
the case, we're gonna need our elite quarterback and our
really good skill players to go win the game. We've
been pretty damn good in the red zone since Tua
came back. In fact, we are fifth with a seventy
(35:31):
point five percent red zone touchdown rate. But we did
kick two field goals in low red zone last week,
and I think that those four point swings will be
critical in this game. And perhaps this is just a
way of kind of zooming out on a few issues
that I have that have held this offense down, and
not like in total, but things that could be better. Right,
Because over that time, we have the most total trips
(35:52):
into the red zone twenty nine. Nineteen of those possessions
have ended with a touchdown, and that second behind only Detroit.
But we also have seven field goals, which is tied
for the tenth most in the NFL. So even with
two more touchdowns on those drives would be a big difference, right,
That could be eight points in this game. I think
that would be the difference in this game. That's what
I'm getting at here. If you go deeper into the numbers,
we run the ball up the seventh lowest rate down there.
(36:13):
And that's not my issue. I love throwing the football.
My point is that we've had to dial that back
because it just hasn't been that effective. We had that
stand against the Packers and the goal line that was
the one turnover on downs in that stretch I'm talking about.
We missed a third and one against the Jets and
kicked a field goal, had to convert a fourth down
after a third and one got stuffed later in the game.
It's just been a struggle to run the football, but
(36:34):
particularly down there, and that's why I think Raheem Moster
could be your answer, your red zone answer down here.
I don't think eight Chan's vision and physicality is really
what you want in that part of the field, like
keep them on the field for the screen game. But
Raheem should get some some red zone carries this week.
In my opinion, if we could just find a way
to better execute in short yardage, it would produce such
insane ripple effects in terms of making the offense even
(36:56):
more dangerous than the top five offense it's been since
the Cardinals game. I am fired up. I think we
covered it pretty well. What's at stake in this game, guys,
the entire season, No big deal, that's all win the
whole thing, just the entire season. You know, I vow
to not talk about playoffs further if we lose this game. Deal,
But I mean, you win this one and you get
(37:17):
to really enjoy multiple slates of football like I just
told you about, all the way through next Sunday into
the four to twenty five slate. If we win and
the Colts win, then a big door opens as another
path of the playoffs. The Texans losing to the Chiefs
and Ravens very possible in my opinion, would mean the
Colts are just wins over the Jags, Titans, and Giants
away from taking the division away from the Texans. Should
(37:39):
they lose those games, I think they will lose. I
do think the Colts will get picked off once in there.
But man, if they beat Denver, we get all of
that and the one o'clock window for the Niners game
before we get to put the season back on the
line against the Niners next week, so it could be
a really fun like celebration for a week after this
victory if we get it. So, Dolphins, please pleasease do
(37:59):
the damn thing. I've watched every big game this team
has played live, like on TV or in person since
two thousand and four. That's twenty years. We've had some
big wins, the Jets finale in eight the win in
Buffalo in twenty sixteen on Christmas Eve, the Cowboys last
year certainly up there, but those have been so far
and few between, and while I think the Texans team
is better than all those teams sans the Cowboys at
(38:21):
home last year, those were win and in situations, we
have to win this one just to have the right.
Speaker 2 (38:26):
To go another week.
Speaker 3 (38:27):
So please, for a twenty year watcher of every game,
for a fan of thirty plus years, someone that hasn't
seen a playoff win for that twenty year span, someone
that dedicated his entire life and career and moved his
family to South Florida, I implore you on behalf of
Dolphin's nation. Please come on, guys, I beg of you
get this win.
Speaker 2 (38:45):
Please. You must excuse me. I've grown quite.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
Were as we all have range of outcomes. I don't
think we know show in this game. I don't. It's
not primetime, it's indoors. It's not a team that I
think is anywhere. You're the caliber of the teams we've
seen in those spots, the Bills, Chiefs, and Packers. But
my heart won't let me go there. I like the
matchup on tape. That offense has been broken for months.
(39:11):
I worry they get it sorted out against a thin, tired,
old defense that seems to be on his last leg
this year. I trust Tua to keep it close and
to get us our points. If we can win in
the margins on special teams, those third and twos, those
little moments that can extend drives and swing games, then
I think we will win. But wouldn't I be a
fool to predict that to suddenly change. I think a
Texans comfortable win is within the range of outcomes. I
(39:34):
could see us winning by a touchdown or even ten points,
but I think the difference will be split there. I
think it'll be a good game. I think that they'll
make a play at the end that beats us. Probably
on offense, we have struggled to get second half stops
for a while now, and I think that's a direct
correlation with our lack of depth on defense. And I
think we'll have a lead on the final drive for
the Texans and they'll break your heart with a field
(39:55):
goal or a touchdown. Twenty nine twenty seven. Texans win
this game. Keys the victory and capitalize takeaway opportunities. Number two,
set hard edges against the Houston ground game Number three,
stay ahead of the chains on offense. You all please
be sure to subscribe, rate review the show, give me
a follow on social. Check out the fish Tank podcast
with my guys Seth and Juice Jamie Nails.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
Episode is Nails.
Speaker 3 (40:17):
Check out the YouTube channel for Dolphins HQ, Zach Steeler,
my guest tonight on the show, as well the Chop
Robinson Breakdown and DJ Banname's interview as well. Last but
not least, Miami Dolphins dot Com. Until next time, Ben's up,
Caroline and Cameron Daddy
Speaker 2 (40:31):
He's coming home.