May 27, 2025 • 37 mins
Travis is back for a deep dive of an episode. We’re looking at the run game from an analytics perspective and how the Dolphins can change the way defenses play them by getting more efficient run game production, and re-open the vertical game. Plus, your mailbag questions provide another deep dive into pass rush vs. pass coverage and if you can survive without one or the other.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
What is up, Dolphans And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast.
I am your host Travis Wingfield. On today's show, what
started as a run game comparison research project turned into
an entire monologue on how the offense can revert back
to the production we saw in twenty twenty three in
twenty twenty five, plus, I've got a bunch of your
(00:28):
mail bag questions to answer from the Baptist Health Studios
inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the Draft
Time Podcast. Ye gaffe, that's a lie off the top.
We are not in the Baptist Health Studios. We are
at COSA day Wingfield, and it's a holiday weekend, which
means recording the podcast from home, which means you're probably
(00:49):
gonna hear some interruptions, some stomping around upstairs. The boy
I believe has some legos out, and I believe Caroline
is trying on more princess dresses as she does every
weekend to see So if you get an interruption, that's why,
that's that's why.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
So let's go ahead and jump into this.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
I wanted to start the show with something that I've
kind of been kicking around as a content idea. For
a few weeks and full transparency. The Dolphins have really
been great about kind of letting me carve my own
path a little bit as I transition from my new
weekend obsession with the Outdoor Boys YouTube channel.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
You guys watch him.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
He's phenomenal, a phenomenal outdoor channel. Half hour episodes, keeps
things moving, teaches me things that I didn't know about,
didn't think I ever cared to know about, but apparently
I'm really into outdoors content. But what I mean by
kind of carving your own path or your own trail
is doing episodes like this right and just kind of
allowing me to pontificate certain ideas and do some research
(01:46):
behind them and then provide you guys with the episode.
Because the truth is, like anybody can do this. I mean,
you have to put the time and research in, but
anybody could do this. And I think that what makes
for fun content is is knowing that team and what
the fan based desires and how to deliver that information
to them in a timely and entertaining way. So that's
what we're going for here. And as I continue to,
(02:09):
you know, gather data points on all of this, I
think we just roll with it and let the chips
fall where they may. And essentially it's it comes down
to this. To me, the biggest reason we saw an
offensive drop off in twenty twenty four aside from too
A missing six and a half games, And that's like
I mean, we've this has been the debate for months now,
right like to A missed over a third of the
(02:31):
season and we still were in the mix in Week
eighteen like that, that's I think that's probably where the
disconnect comes from from the from the national or rather
like the NFL giving the Dolphins five primetime games and
the fan base that feels a little bit snake bitten
right now. And I get it, trust me, I do.
It's it's been that way for for quite some time
for this organization, for this team. If you're a fan
(02:52):
of this team for you know, twenty five thirty years,
I get it. But I think that's why you know
they're saying that two is only missed that many games.
That's the most games he's missed in a single season,
right So I don't think that's the expectations that every year.
But he has to stay healthy. And to reiterate the
point I've made so many times, on the show. I
think the Cardinals game was really what the offense should
(03:15):
have been from week one, right, and we got a
little spoiled there for two years with these red Hearts
red hot starts offensively, I mean, twenty twenty three was
a four hundred and sixty six yard passing day from
the quarterback, and then seventy points two weeks after that,
And I thought the Week two game against the Patriots
is one of two was best execution games just in
terms of running the offense and going to the correct
(03:37):
read and putting the ball where it's supposed to be
on time frequently against a different style of defense, and
that three high look, it's twenty twenty two in twenty
twenty two, Rather it was to come back against the Ravens,
and then Tua gets hurt a couple of weeks later,
but returns and we start rolling up thirty points every
single game and the offense kind of carries us while
the defense is kind of getting ran over by Detroit
in Chicago, right. But it was pretty much the same
(03:59):
thing last year when Tua comes back for the Cardinals
game after a really really challenging opening parts of the
season with Scyler Thompson, Tim Boyle, and then eventually Tyler Huntley.
But after that twenty seven points against the Cardinals, twenty
seven against the Bills, twenty three in a win over
the Rams, and then thirty four and thirty four and
back to back games his first five games back, So
two games over thirty four or over thirty points, I
(04:20):
should say, and then nothing lower than twenty three and
two games right there at twenty seven, which if you
ever twenty seven points per game in the league, you're
probably going to the playoffs. So we need to find
a way to get back to being inventive. Inventive I
should say, and ahead of the curve in week one,
not what we saw last year with this, like I
suppose deeper evolution of the screen game that didn't really
work aside for a couple of fun like pop plays.
(04:43):
But aside from Tua being hurt, to me, what caused
the offense to take a massive step in the wrong
direction was not taking advantage of light boxes with the
run game, because this passing game a fords you space
in that way, and you have to make the defense
respect the run game in order to get your shots
down field. And passing game and in twenty twenty three,
we excelled at this. When people ask like, why did
(05:05):
we not have a downfield passing game, it's because you
couldn't run the ball. That's the only reason why teams
are going to be happy to allow eight Chan to
have one thirty yard run per game if I have
eight other carries where he gets two yards or less,
because that's consistently putting myself in an advantageous from a
defensive play calling situation. So you can have your even
if you have three thirty yard runs a game, I
(05:25):
really don't care because the other fifteen you're gonna put
yourself behind the eight ball and have a negative play offensively.
So I don't mind going fifteen to three on a
play on a run game standpoint, and eight Chan was
a big part of that, the biggest part of it
I thought. I thought his rookie season vision was outstanding.
I think that last year was a drop off in
(05:46):
that area. He wasn't as sharp with his reads and
how he read blocks and kind of anticipated angles and
how to attack them. But I don't think that means
he's incapable of seeing things better, because we do have
proof of concept and Devon talked about this watching cutups
last year. I felt like I left a lot of
the yards on the table end quote, and in this system,
the back's decision making and the track that he takes
(06:07):
impressing the gap and really kind of you know, making
things play out the way they're designed to and then
reading the angle of the blocks and hitting the gap
with good smart decisions.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
It's a lot to chew on.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
And for Devon, his role went from a one B
you know, behind Raheem Mostert there sort of and kind
of the change of pace like look out, here comes
the you know, Andres Munios the best closer in baseball
out of the bullpen, throwing ninety nine mile an hour
gas every single pitch with a devastating sinker. Like then
he went to being a starter. He couldn't just go
to the fastball all the time. And we've talked about,
you know this with with how Jalen Wright, Alexander Madison,
(06:41):
Oli Gordon and their ability to make you know, to
take a step ahead in the offense and reduce the
true running back load of a chan. And allow me
to make this abundantly clear, I don't want to reduce
a chan's workload I just I think he's one of
the best skill players receive a running back tight under
otherwise in the entire National Football League. But if we
can get more wide receiver snaps, more swings and screens
(07:03):
and varied pre snap alignments, and utilize more Jalen Wright
in some of those single back sets as the true
running back, I think defenses respect that more.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
I think it challenges.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Your vertical element even more than if you didn't have
a chan in that role. I thought he really showed
his salt, right, that is as a zone runner and
where a Chance says that he left yards out there.
To me, that was on tape of him trying to
hit the big play, and he talked about that and
not taking the cutbats taking the yards that was there
and affordable to him, which is a cardinal sin in
(07:36):
this offense. And that's why I think, you know, he
probably got a little bit of an earful from the
coaching staff because the number one rule of this offense
is we're going to create overplay and then take advantage
of how you've done that. It's like, I mean, that's
that's all of sport, right, Get the opponent thinking one
thing and then zag when they think you're gonna zig.
So I think the tape don't lie. And I love
(07:56):
that he's attacking it head on. And it's akin to
what John Embreys said about John hus Smith, who broke
every franchise record right for tight ends last year, and
the first thing Embry says about him in his first
media availability is well, you know, he left one hundred
and eighty five yards in the field after the catch
that he could have had. And I'll never forget having
a conversation with coach Embo about the after the Rams
game when I was like, what do you think about
(08:17):
that tight end? That tight end run? Remember John who
had that big right after catch? And he goes, well,
I think it's about time he starts listening to me.
I was like, okay, so we're coaching him hard then,
even though he broke records and that's hey, you know
that's complacency is a death neil in the NFL. Right.
So I just love that after a record breaking season,
that's what we're doing and asking the question what more
can we do? That's the type of grit that will
(08:39):
make you better and progress your skills as a football team.
Back to the run game here, it wasn't just some
bad reads by Devaughan, again making that abundantly clear. This
is a comprehensive picture. This is a comprehensive game that
requires eleven people doing their job on every single snap.
Because I thought some of the decisions were because the
guard play would get beat too early on in the
(08:59):
snap and not get enough movement. And you know, they
banked on continuity last year, and I tried to see
that as a potential formidable solution and it wasn't. It wasn't,
and they told you it wasn't because of what they
did this offseason with James Daniels and Jonah sevit Naya
with a top of the second round trade up player
and a high price free agent. That tells you how
(09:20):
they felt about that position and how it had to
get fixed. And on paper it looks fixed. And above
all of that, I felt the tape showed an inconsistent
ability to win on the edge in the running game,
i e. The tight end position, and sometimes it tackle,
And that tackle part really coincided with Austin Jackson's injury.
I mean, I'm gonna go back and watch these games here,
probably over the summer, which tells you how psychotic I am,
(09:42):
because I'm about to welcome in my third child and
I'll be crazy busy and probably trying to get some
golf rounds in there too while I'm watching, you know,
twenty twenty four Dolphins offensive tape. But I want to
go watch that game again, because we got whatever we
wanted on the ground game, really in the passing game
every single drive after most Start's fumble to open the
second half when we were up was at ten to six,
I think it was at that point of the game.
(10:03):
But then Austin gets hurt and the run game never
got back to where it was in that one. So
Austin's back Patrick Paul locked in a left tackle. We
improved the tight end position with Pharaoh Brown. And I'm
a big believer in Jalen Conyers. And we heard John
Embrase is a potential three down player. That's telling to
me in terms of how they view him. I know
that the team felt that he was a guy that
probably should have been drafted more so than going undrafted.
(10:24):
On top of the fact that I think that Julian
will play better than he did last year, just as
he played better last year than he did as a rookie.
We've gone over this how difficult the tight end position
can be to kind of pick up from a mental standpoint,
a mental load and how much you have to process
in real time while you're trying to hit two hundred
and sixty pounds moving targets who were run four four forties, right, Like,
that's the average defensive entities NFL is quite the moving target.
(10:48):
And to conclude the tape review with the numbers and
sort of bridge those two things together. You know, most
negative runs in the league last year, right, we had
eighty of them that lost Yardage's I mean you run,
give or take a thousand plays per year, that's almost
ten percent of your plays where you lost yardage. And
that's the defense saying we're gonna take those wins all
day long. If we can get those because you can't
(11:09):
take advantage of our light box and we can keep
the roof on the defense, that's you're gonna have to
go fifteen play drives, as the Dolphins did for much
of the year. So the running game, it's funny because
you think, like the way you get the more explosive
quick strike offensive drives is you got to get your
passing game cooking again. The way to do it is
to get your run game going again. And I think
(11:31):
you can make strides right there. You reduce those negative runs,
you reduce your need for true dropbacks, which reduces number
of sacks. And this quarterback, if he's taking ten true
dropbacks a game, with how quick he gets the ball
out of his hands, he probably takes one sack of game.
That's why his sack numbers are so ridiculously low. And
you see when he comes out of the game for Skyler,
if a Huntley or for Boil, the sack numbers go up.
It's just it kind of derails the system in a way.
(11:53):
And that's not just a Shanahan offensive feature anymore. Every
team wants to reduce their dropbacks and play quick gameplay
pass or play action game. I should say, but when
you're in second and twelve, you have to call true
drop back game.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
So you can improve that.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
And with a successful run game, you can also encourage
defenses to become more aggressive. If we're piling up five
and a half yards per carry and we have, you know,
a twenty to ten lead in the third quarter, and
we come out of the half and it's eight chan
for six, eight, Chan for five. All of a sudden,
it's a first and ten at to forty one. Here
comes jalan right for eight yards. He gets three yards
on second and two, and now it's a first and
(12:29):
ten at midfield. And they're not gonna just sit back
and be like, okay, we can we can watch them
take eight minutes off the clock and kick a field
goal and go up thirteen. They're gonna sneak a safety
down in the box and they're gonna try to run
blitch you, and then you get you know, potential miscommunications,
you get potential one on ones in the secondary. And
that's how Jalen Waddle catches an eight yard slant and
turns it into a forty yard play. And I mean
(12:50):
it also means you're not gonna get a bracket on
Reak and Waddle. You might vacate a middle of the
field zone defender when we throw that slant, and that
creates that one on one chance against the safety and
open space. And then if you tackle us, like okay,
it's a fifteen yard play. If you miss that tackle, well,
it's a seventy yard touchdown on the backside. So that's
where I go back to this offense being here we
go again to make a golf analogy. If my club
(13:12):
path at the downswing is one degree off, it's a
slight change that can make the biggest difference to keep
your ball straight, reducing side spin and adding thirty forty
yards of distance, which we all know we want that
you want to hit your shot into the green with
a nine iron, not a five iron. We love wedges
into our greens and regulation attempts, right, that's the best
(13:32):
way to score low. And if we can just sort of,
you know, reduce these negative runs and from a personnel
change and incumbent improvement after self scouting and working at it,
I think you can knock you know, the proverbial five
or six strokes off your game with just this one
minute change. Because I want to take a break real quick.
We'll come back on the other side and break this
down by the numbers, and just a heads up, this
(13:54):
podcast is going to go super long. I have a
lot to get to here, so you're looking at a
forty minute episode here today. First fifteen, you know the
can Let's go ahead and take our break, come back
and compare the Dolphins run game in twenty twenty three
with yards before contact versus two high structures. All of
that compare to twenty twenty four and give you more
evidence as to how this Dolphins offense can go back
to scoring thirty points per game.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
By running the football.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
That's next draft on podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought
to you by Auto Nation. Let's get one thing perfectly
clear here off the top of the podcast. When I
say run the football more, it doesn't mean just run
the ball to run the ball. I'm talking about efficiently
running the football to make the defense respected enough to
adjust to it. That's what we're going for here. And
(14:36):
the way you do that is running it against certain
structures where there are certain down and distances, and they're
going to say, we're not going to respect the run
game here because we want to protect the Tyreek Hill
seventy yard touchdown, and we're not so worried about a
Devon eight chan six yard run because we know that,
you know, fifteen of the eighteen times we can keep
it for a three yard gain or less. When you
can get teams out of that mode of thinking and
(14:56):
you can go to that Buffalo game and you can
consistently put yourself in second three second two. They can't
stop the passing offense either, because the short stuff remains
there for them, and just that game plan is going
to fail. So the key to it all is to
have an efficient running game, to give yourself a chance
to have an efficient passing game that forces the defense
to either change what they're doing or just get picked
apart down the field while killing clock and scoring touchdowns.
(15:18):
So that's where the value of the efficiency of the
running game against those looks becomes so important. I'm not
saying hand the ball off and bang your head into
a wall against a base defense with a safety sneak
down with eight man boxes don't do that. But when
they play those light boxes and give you two high structures,
you have to find a way to get five plus
yards per carry. And so I went back and looked
at this twenty twenty three versus twenty twenty four the
(15:41):
way box. I think it's important to kind of when
you get too much info and data in a podcast,
to just mix it up a little bit. So there's
a little Charlie Kelly for you hitting base balls drunkenly
after getting off a flight, drinking fifty six beers in
the air, Wade bog style. So in twenty twenty three,
versus two high structures, Dolphins had two points three yards
before contact. That means the running back was two yards
(16:03):
beyond the last scammage before they got contacted. On average,
that was eleventh most in the National Football League. And
against those structures they averaged five point two yards per
rush that was seventh most in the NFL. Punishing two
high looks at over five yards per carry and getting
more out of what's even blocked there. Because when your
yards before contact is lower than your rushing average, that
(16:24):
means the running backs are doing a pretty good job.
And then this is in total total yards before contact
was or rather average yards before contact was one point
nine to five that was third in the National Football League.
So that means we blocked it up at the third
best rate for our running backs in total. Whether the
structure was too high or whatever it was that that's
the comprehensive number there. Yards after contact for our running
(16:48):
backs was one than six hundred and thirty and eight.
Chan's average yards after contact was number one in the
league five hundred and thirty four total yards but just
under five yards every single rush after initial contact. Eight
chan was awesome, The run blocking was awesome, most was awesome.
The run game worked in every single aspect. In twenty
twenty four, run game versus two high structures, yards before
(17:10):
contact went down to one point nine to one. That
fell from eleventh down to seventeenth. Now here's where the
real rub is. And this is why, again, they told
you they wanted to replace the guards. They had to
get better guard played. They told you that. That's no
one's arguing that. But this is why there's so much
pushback from myself, from Kyle Krabs, from people that really
dig into the stuff. When you just say you have
(17:31):
to fix the offensive line, it was more than that.
It was the running backs. It was a tight ends.
We've covered it and this is a good example of that.
Rush average was four point six yards per carry. That
is twenty second in the National Football League. And that
disparity where we talked about eleventh and yards before contact
with a seventh ranked rushing attack. That means the running
backs are getting more than what's blocked for them. And
if it's the same number you're doing, you're doing the same.
(17:52):
But now yards before contact seventeenth, rush average twenty second,
that tells you that there's a disparity there in terms
of the running backs ability for the lack of rushing. Now,
if you really boil it down and get into the
nitty gritty of situational football, you can trace it back
to shortcomings really all over like again, a league worst,
and this is by a long shot, negative point h
(18:14):
nine yards before contact on short yardage runs. And that's
where the offensive line stuff really comes into play. Right,
I totally am in agreeance across the board with all
the angry fans about that. You were right about the
concept that we couldn't move people in short yardage, but
the back couldn't do much on his own, and the
edge was bad as well. It was all bad like
John who had an awesome season, but he lost so
(18:36):
many blocks across his face in short yardage or in
pass pro. And then Darren Smyth was cut for a reason.
It was just weekly film review was a challenge to
watch there, and Julian Hill was a work in progress.
And by the way, the thirty first ranked team in
the league in this category was in the positive. They
were point five to three yards. We were the only
team in the negative, and nobody was within a half
(18:56):
yard of being in the negative. Our total yards before
contact twenty twenty four was one point oh four, so
our run blocking gave us the twenty seventh best yardage
before initial contact, and then our yards after contact fell
to twelve fifty eight and eight Chan went from down
to five ninety, but his average went to two point
nine one, So in twenty twenty three he averaged four
(19:17):
point nine to four yards after initial contact. Last year
it was two point nine to one. Almost half as many,
I mean explosive runs went by the boards because of
the backs more so than the offensive line, in my opinion.
And I'm not sure what else you need you know
besides this stat to prove that it was the most
in the NFL among players with one hundred carries in
(19:38):
twenty twenty three, and last year it fell to thirty seventh.
And how did our play action passing game get impacted
by that? Well in twenty twenty three, And I'm only
gonna use two because I don't care about anybody else
in this category. One twenty four for one to seventy seven,
that's a seventy point one percent completion rate. He had
over sixteen hundred yards, it was nine point two yards
per pass That is a really good figure. Eight touchdowns
(20:02):
and two picks, a one to oh nine point one
passer rating. He had eleven big time throw that's tight
window down the field shots. Recording to Pro Football Focus,
he had four turnover worthy plays and he averaged two
point seven to two seconds time to throw, so he
had more time to throw because in this year that
number went down, So seventy percent nine point two one
oh nine passer rating, eleven big time throws, four turnover
(20:25):
worthy plays and two point seven to two seconds time
to throw. Last year he was seventy six for one
oh four. And there's the injuries right that right, he
reduced his number by over seventy attempts. That was seventy
three percent. But of course we threw the ball short
to the line of scrimmage. Eight hundred and fifty two
yards was eight point two yards per attempt, so a
full full yard dip in YPA. Three touchdowns compared to
(20:47):
eight and two picks and a ninety eight point seven
passer rating. He had just three big time throws, which
tells me he wasn't getting much influence on the defense
down the field. He had the same number of turnover
worthy plays. That's four and he had a two point
five seven second time to throw, so two tenths of
a second drop off there, and he only completed point
two percent higher a completion rate and one point four
(21:07):
yards per attempt per yard higher in regular passing compared
to play action twenty twenty four. But in twenty twenty
three he had a one point six yard jumped on
non play action passes. So, just to reiterate, aside from
the quarterback missing games, this is it. This is what
you do, what you go into the offseason with and
come away from yourself scouting when you ask where do
(21:29):
we come up short? It was right here? And how
do you improve it? That's the most important question? And
their answer was James Daniels, Jonah Savit and Aaya, Nick Westbrook,
Akine Farrell Brown, Ollie Gordon, Alex Madison, Larry Boram, and
we'll see what happens the rest of the way. And
I subscribe to the idea that there's a reason every
damn time they post one of those charts or a
stat rundown, like I saw Warren Sharp post the highest
(21:52):
EPA on third downs last year and two was sixth
behind like Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and
like Jalen Hurts. He's always with those guys in those
categories on every single one of these charts. And if
I may take it a step further on what is
a very analytical podcast, and for that sake, we'll go
ahead and do this real quick, because that is what's up.
(22:15):
And what's up is the third down EPA is essentially
a measure of how a quarterback makes plays in obvious
passing downs, like they know what's coming. How can you
play make it? Everyone says, well, you have to be
able to create off structure to do that. No, Tua
just does it at a high level, playing from the
pocket like most good quarterbacks do. And we have these
stretches where the offense was really damn effective. When he
(22:36):
first came back off the injury in the San Francisco game,
if we just catch a damn football, that game's a runaway.
In the fourth quarter after the first quarter of the
Green Bay game. He played pretty well in that one,
I mean really all but the Houston game and then
a pretty good chunk of that Green Bay game. And
to do that with really not much of a running
game from basically the Buffalo game on. Well, that's why
I want to get the running game going. And this
(22:57):
is kind of like how Tua goes. Like. Tua can
play like top twelve quarterback level when he's got no
running game and minimal support around him. But when you
get him like a highly functioning run game and an
offense that clicks for him, he becomes like a top
three quarterback production in production every single time you get
that for him. And getting back to what we did
in twenty twenty three, and we had a pair of
athletic tackles, a center that could push, that could win
(23:19):
on the edge, two guards who are as big as
they are athletic and allow us to push you off
the football and run you on the perimeter. Both Isaiah
Winn and Rob Hunt had first round athletic ability and
first round size to go along with that. That's what
Daniels and savit I Andaya have two wide receivers who
are the number one on most teams across the NFL.
You know, talk to a wall if you don't believe
(23:39):
about it. In Jaylen Waddle, he's such a great player
that needs to get more production. I'm with you on
that a dynamic tight end, we didn't have that in
twenty twenty two. A dynamic running back like Devon a Chan,
we didn't have a player like him in twenty twenty two.
It kind of sounds like what we have in twenty
twenty five, you know, from twenty three to twenty two.
And because I just keep thinking about this more on
the topic of Tye, you know, I saw this very
(24:01):
interesting fantasy football stat about him. This is the part
about fantasy football heads that I love, and there's a
lot that I don't love, but this these in depth
research projects that provide real game value. So our defensive
pass game opponents from year over year stats, and you know,
nobody's getting a bigger fantasy point per game adjustment than
Tyreek Hill and Wattle was fourteenth on that list. Essentially,
(24:23):
it says that this year's average pass defense rank is lower,
and that's a slippery slope slope because it's off last
year's rankings. But this part is what really interests me.
I wrote, soap, it's a slope slope, sippery, slippery soap.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
It's kind of funny.
Speaker 1 (24:37):
Ten of our seventeen opponents this year ranking in the
top twelve of single high safety looks, and Tyreek was
eighty seven percent more productive last year against that against
single high than two safety looks split safety looks. And
if we run the ball like I think we can
and want to, then I think we can force that
issue more. Or if teams say we're not going to
(24:58):
mess with that and then they call the defense that's
not their bread and butter, well then you've already created
an advantage by forcing them out of their game because
of how your personnel threatens it. Again, I remain extremely
bullish on this offense, to the surprise of nobody last break.
Right there, we are deep into the podcast and I
have a lot more content here to get to a
lot of mel bad questions from y'all. I might save
somebody's for later on on the show. We'll do that
(25:20):
next Here. Draft Time Podcast brought to you by Auto Nation. Okay,
I had a bunch written out here, and so what
I'm going to do is punt on one of these
segments until later in the week. I should say a
bunch of these questions. So if you don't hear your
question today, I'm going to answer it by the Friday podcast.
Sound good because we're gonna have this show tomorrow. We
(25:40):
have a practice to cover OTA practice.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
I can't wait for that.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
We're gonna have Coach McDaniel players after practice in like
an hour fifteen or so of actual football to cover
for you guys, so you don't want to miss that.
And then we'll come back on Friday, and I've already
planned out a bunch of these questions and then I'll
add the ones I didn't get to as well. So
I'm just gonna do a few of these off the top.
We'll go to about a half hour and we'll cut
the show right there. Okay, that one, we can kind
of just have some more time, so you guys hit
(26:04):
up the mail bag thread early and often, so first,
thanks for helping produce the show here, and I love
when this happens. We got some questions from a couple
of times, so I'm gonna start with this one here.
It was asked by both coach O line Coach Smith
sixty three, you guys know him as Eric Smith. He
does great offensive line in general film cut ups for
the Five Reason Sports Network. I did his podcast with
Hasam Patel a few months back. Really fun conversation there
(26:27):
and then Ben Brown excuse me at Ben Brown ninety
seven asked the same question, so Al Frankenstein the two
questions together as one. Essentially, they asked this, does the
return of Chubb and Phillips offset the loss of Ramsey
and Fuller in the secondary? And I love this question
because there's so many layers to it, and as you
guys know, this podcast loves to get into the weeds. Also,
(26:53):
just heard Cam got put in the time out, so
had a boy first. Ramsey is still on the roster today, right,
And we had a lot of back and forth Coach
Weave about this, and quite frankly, I thought the volunteers
not hostages comment was the best part of the entire
press conference. But if he's moved, and it sounds like
he will be, And with Greer saying so many times
that we've been in contact with some of the other
free agent cornerbacks out there, what I'm getting at is,
(27:16):
I don't think it's going to be Cater and then
a two man combo from the rest of the guys
we have here. I think it's more likely that it's
Cater somebody who's brought in, and then someone else from
the team, right, And maybe not even that because we've
as we've covered at length, sometimes that extra defensive back
is a third safety, and I think both. I think
the plan right now it's may so who knows, But
I think the plan is for if he and Ashton
(27:36):
to be starters, to be brought into play, and then
I think that Patrick McMorris has a chance to get
some serious run as a big nickel, you know, the
fifth defensive back coming on the field, being a safety
opposed to a cornerback. And I could definitely see a
world where you have that big nickel grouping of Iffy
Davis mc morris and then with cater and like Jack
Jones or Wassull Douglas or whatever it might be.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
I don't know who it's going to be. Now.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
I'm not going to sit here and say it doesn't
matter what you have at cornerback as long as your
pass rush is good. Now, the twenty fifteen Broncos, you
can pull up their tape and see countless reps against
like Tom Brady, and in the AFC Championship game for
that matter. You know, the best protection setter and the
best get the ball out quick quarterback of all time.
But with DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller and Sylvester Williams
(28:22):
and Malik Jackson and Shaq Barrett. There just wasn't a
lot that teams could do to manage that pass rush.
If you have that an all time great pass rush,
then I can say I don't really care who your
cornerbacks are. But even that team had like a key
to leave and Chris Harris right, so like they had
Pro Bowl cornerbacks too. But unless you're generational that way,
I think it's fool's gold to say it doesn't matter
(28:43):
who your cornerbacks are. Because we saw this in twenty
twenty two and that was a big point of contention
from me, and coming back in twenty twenty three say
I'm like, oh, we're much better here at this position
because of what we have at cornerback, and the pass
rush is going to be better because of that too.
They both were top ten that year after Chubb arrived.
If you break it down by like week eight on
in past rush win rate, but that defense still gave
up tons of points and it was because Byron Jones
(29:05):
was a mystery all year. X was kind of you know,
on the back end of his career. Needham and Trill
both got knocked out for the year. Early on, we
had two guys that signed a Special Teams aces and
Justin Bethel and key On Crossing, And by week ten,
both those guys were playing on the perimeter and they
played like Bethel played really well. I thought that year,
Crossing not so much. But I mean they weren't signed
(29:25):
to play cornerback every single like sixty snaps a game.
They were supposed to play, you know, sparingly and then
go be special teams demons. And I wanted to pull
some data on this, and I was just messing around
with opposing quarterback time to throw and the I guess
the correlation of the stats from that, but I don't
think it works because as we heard coach, we've say,
you know, teams look to take the short stuff against
(29:46):
our system because our system with all the quarters and
you know, two highs and the different uh you know, multi.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
The how do I say this?
Speaker 1 (29:55):
The the defense is so steeped in like two and
three high structures in the back back end, whether it's
quarter quarter half, you know, split field, half half, whatever
it is, you invite the underneath game because you're pulling
guys out of that spart of the field to reduce
the vertical passing game, which is NFL you know, one
on one these days. But the quarterbacks that see that
and take the short stuff and get the ball out fast,
(30:17):
they're not doing that because the pass rush is on them.
They're doing that because it's the best read in the
progression for the quarterback at the time. And so sometimes
quick game quick time to throw for a quarterback is
bad for a defense because that means the quarterback was
able to read pre snap where the ball had to
go and didn't deviate from that. And we've seen Tua
just destroy teams doing that. So it's not a great measure.
(30:38):
But you can toggle time to throw at one tenth
of a second at a time, and the yards per
pass or yards per play I should say, are always
are always over like five, even down to one point five.
So the league average is five point three. And here's
what I found something useful. Almost uniformly, each extra tenth
(30:58):
of a second the quarterback has equates to another tenth
of a yard per play. So like two seconds time
to throw was five point eight yards per play, two
point one seconds to throw was five point nine yards
per play, two point two was six yards and so
on and so forth a good time for this. So
to answer your question, yes, obviously if we get to
(31:19):
the quarterback faster, that can create more issues. But I
think you have to look at it like this, and
this goes back to the Denver comment. You know the
guys that that could win one on ones at any
point and reduce the need to blitz. Now it does
that mean you never blitz? No, of course not, because
the key for any defense and the reason I think
that Weaver is a brilliant game planner and game caller
is he mixes it up so well. His staff is
(31:39):
constantly feeding him tendencies throughout the course of the game. Hey,
you've only blitzed Ramsey this many times. You've only you know,
called on Seiler for or rather Jordan Brooks for it,
blitz this many times and he deciphers what that means
and then he breaks up his cadence accordingly. And the
sim pressure and blitz with all the rush games they run,
all of that has so much value. But in a
base look which is our Nickel package right? For two,
(32:00):
if I can line up with four of the five
between Chubb Chop Chubb Chop, Phillips, Zach and kg All
of those guys can be one on one pass rush
or pass protectors, and then that gives us, you know,
seven in coverage, and if you play connected, well communicated football,
then seven is more than the eligible five.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
You're gonna score your wins that way.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
And all of this ties back to Weaver talking about
where they are now in the system compared to a
year ago and McDaniel telling me that he felt a
click midyear last year, and now they believe they could
be even further along from day one, especially with OTA
attendance outside of five because we don't expect them to
be here with our defense ranking seventh in the NFL
(32:41):
and EPA per play over the second half of the
season right when that that clicking point was. And by
the way, three of the other teams in that mix,
or rather the rest of the teams ahead of us
in that mix were Philly, Baltimore, Seattle, Houston, Green Bay,
and Minnesota. Like we know what Minnesota's defense dated last year,
phiadel Fields was one of the best in the league.
But how about Baltimore and Seattle being two other teams
(33:04):
that you know, Mike McDonald and Zach Orr and then
Anthony Weaver. Three teams off that Raven's tree that we
talked about so frequently. That's now the most in vogue
defensive system in the NFL. Not to mention, you also
get Houston and there with Tamiko Ryan. So those were
like the best defenses in the league down the stretch
last year. And I go back to this comment about Weaver.
You know, whichever combination of eleven, however the shakes out,
(33:25):
we will play good defense because of the conviction and
the trust they have in one another. So that's kind
of where I come down that. Let's do a couple
more things here real quick. I want to there's there
was a review question on the Apple Reviews, which if
you guys put a question in the Apple Reviews with
the five star rating, I will answer it. So this
comes from it's just Robbie, why is it so great
to have Anthony Weaver as our DC if he's just
(33:48):
most likely going to leave after the season to be
a head coach, well, number one, if he does leave
to be a head coach somewhere, that probably means we
had a pretty good year, especially defensively. And as you
guys know, how I feel about the offense. If if
Weaver gets a head coaching job next year, that tells
me the defense was good and if twist Stay is
healthy that I know the offense will be good. Then
(34:09):
you might break your playoff drought Jet Robbie like. That's
that's the that's the upshot of that. And if he leaves,
you get two third round draft picks for him too.
So and I think what we has done with this
defensive staff is he's built a really good report with
the coaches beyond him and did a good job of
bringing in his guys but also keeping the guys that
he felt were, you know, of of value to him,
(34:30):
like Austin Clark and not I shouldn't say a value
of him, but guys that you know he thought were
that he didn't have to replace them for those positions.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
There's a lot of good coaches on the staff.
Speaker 1 (34:40):
And then I think it allows you to continue to
try to look for that system and try to find
the next guy to call that system. So would it
be a loss, Yeah, every team that has to replace
a coordinator, it's a loss for that team. But you
know who loses coordinators. The best teams in the league
That's why I would be very excited about losing him,
because it would mean we had a great year this
year in my opinion, and I just think he's a
great football coach. I hope he doesn't leave here, but
(35:01):
if he does, that probably means we did pretty good
this year. Last one Here a short and sweet one
from Kevin Duran at Kevin MD four. Which combo do
you want protecting your millions? If you're Walter White? Is
it Jesse and Mike from the show? Is it Hewle
and QB from the Show? Is it KG and Jordan
Phillips or Jonah and James? Or is it Richmond Webb
and Keith Simms? My goodness, what a question. I'm going
(35:22):
to go process of elimination style here. So Webb and
Sims they're legends, two of the best ever, but at
this stage I want them to have cushy jobs. They're
not being my muscle anymore. They're you know, their prime
was a while ago. They've earned the right to kind
of put their feet up. I can't have Jesse Pinkman
attached to my projects. Too volatile and quite frankly, too
easy to physically overtake. I think any of the other
(35:43):
three combinations would be acceptable here. Hewle and QB did
it in the show, so and plus you got the
smooth talker and Bill Burr and Hewl is just pure muscle.
And then KG and JP might be the strongest two
man combo on the entire damn planet. And then Jonah
and James. They literally protect a two hundred and fifty
million dollar atas set for their actual jobs, and for
that reason, I'm taking the two guards Jonah and James.
(36:05):
They are my official heel and QB from Breaking Bad.
keV also asked me who gets the most reps alongside
Jordan Brooks this year. I believe that begins with Tyrrel Dotson.
I think that he's got a pretty good leadership grasp
in that room, and he's been playing some He played
some good football down the stretch last year, and I
think the team believes in him.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
His contract reflects that.
Speaker 1 (36:23):
But I really think that Willie Gay is special from
an explosive standpoint, and if he clicks in the system
and we've can unlock him like I think he can,
I think we'll start with Dotson. I think you'll see
Gay kind of chew into that role as you go along,
and I would say Gay starts Week eight team if
he's healthy, alongside of Brooks, because I think that his
ability in this defense could be that special. Okay, I
have so many more questions to get too, but we
(36:44):
are deep into the podcast. I'm gonna go ahead and
pause on those, come back and get him on Friday tomorrow,
Ota practice coverage. Plenty of content coming your way here
on the Draft Time Podcast. In the meantime, you all
please be sure subscribe, rate review of the show. Follow
me on social at Wingfold NFL. Follow the team at
Miami Dolphins. Check out the fish Tank podcast with Seth
and Juice, check out the YouTube channel for Dolphins HQ,
(37:05):
Media availabilities, and so much more, and last but not least,
Miami Dolphins dot Com. Until next time finds up Calin
Cameron Daddy so already don't
What is up, Dolphans And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast.
I am your host Travis Wingfield. On today's show, what
started as a run game comparison research project turned into
an entire monologue on how the offense can revert back
to the production we saw in twenty twenty three in
twenty twenty five, plus, I've got a bunch of your
(00:28):
mail bag questions to answer from the Baptist Health Studios
inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the Draft
Time Podcast. Ye gaffe, that's a lie off the top.
We are not in the Baptist Health Studios. We are
at COSA day Wingfield, and it's a holiday weekend, which
means recording the podcast from home, which means you're probably
(00:49):
gonna hear some interruptions, some stomping around upstairs. The boy
I believe has some legos out, and I believe Caroline
is trying on more princess dresses as she does every
weekend to see So if you get an interruption, that's why,
that's that's why.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
So let's go ahead and jump into this.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
I wanted to start the show with something that I've
kind of been kicking around as a content idea. For
a few weeks and full transparency. The Dolphins have really
been great about kind of letting me carve my own
path a little bit as I transition from my new
weekend obsession with the Outdoor Boys YouTube channel.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
You guys watch him.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
He's phenomenal, a phenomenal outdoor channel. Half hour episodes, keeps
things moving, teaches me things that I didn't know about,
didn't think I ever cared to know about, but apparently
I'm really into outdoors content. But what I mean by
kind of carving your own path or your own trail
is doing episodes like this right and just kind of
allowing me to pontificate certain ideas and do some research
(01:46):
behind them and then provide you guys with the episode.
Because the truth is, like anybody can do this. I mean,
you have to put the time and research in, but
anybody could do this. And I think that what makes
for fun content is is knowing that team and what
the fan based desires and how to deliver that information
to them in a timely and entertaining way. So that's
what we're going for here. And as I continue to,
(02:09):
you know, gather data points on all of this, I
think we just roll with it and let the chips
fall where they may. And essentially it's it comes down
to this. To me, the biggest reason we saw an
offensive drop off in twenty twenty four aside from too
A missing six and a half games, And that's like
I mean, we've this has been the debate for months now,
right like to A missed over a third of the
(02:31):
season and we still were in the mix in Week
eighteen like that, that's I think that's probably where the
disconnect comes from from the from the national or rather
like the NFL giving the Dolphins five primetime games and
the fan base that feels a little bit snake bitten
right now. And I get it, trust me, I do.
It's it's been that way for for quite some time
for this organization, for this team. If you're a fan
(02:52):
of this team for you know, twenty five thirty years,
I get it. But I think that's why you know
they're saying that two is only missed that many games.
That's the most games he's missed in a single season,
right So I don't think that's the expectations that every year.
But he has to stay healthy. And to reiterate the
point I've made so many times, on the show. I
think the Cardinals game was really what the offense should
(03:15):
have been from week one, right, and we got a
little spoiled there for two years with these red Hearts
red hot starts offensively, I mean, twenty twenty three was
a four hundred and sixty six yard passing day from
the quarterback, and then seventy points two weeks after that,
And I thought the Week two game against the Patriots
is one of two was best execution games just in
terms of running the offense and going to the correct
(03:37):
read and putting the ball where it's supposed to be
on time frequently against a different style of defense, and
that three high look, it's twenty twenty two in twenty
twenty two, Rather it was to come back against the Ravens,
and then Tua gets hurt a couple of weeks later,
but returns and we start rolling up thirty points every
single game and the offense kind of carries us while
the defense is kind of getting ran over by Detroit
in Chicago, right. But it was pretty much the same
(03:59):
thing last year when Tua comes back for the Cardinals
game after a really really challenging opening parts of the
season with Scyler Thompson, Tim Boyle, and then eventually Tyler Huntley.
But after that twenty seven points against the Cardinals, twenty
seven against the Bills, twenty three in a win over
the Rams, and then thirty four and thirty four and
back to back games his first five games back, So
two games over thirty four or over thirty points, I
(04:20):
should say, and then nothing lower than twenty three and
two games right there at twenty seven, which if you
ever twenty seven points per game in the league, you're
probably going to the playoffs. So we need to find
a way to get back to being inventive. Inventive I
should say, and ahead of the curve in week one,
not what we saw last year with this, like I
suppose deeper evolution of the screen game that didn't really
work aside for a couple of fun like pop plays.
(04:43):
But aside from Tua being hurt, to me, what caused
the offense to take a massive step in the wrong
direction was not taking advantage of light boxes with the
run game, because this passing game a fords you space
in that way, and you have to make the defense
respect the run game in order to get your shots
down field. And passing game and in twenty twenty three,
we excelled at this. When people ask like, why did
(05:05):
we not have a downfield passing game, it's because you
couldn't run the ball. That's the only reason why teams
are going to be happy to allow eight Chan to
have one thirty yard run per game if I have
eight other carries where he gets two yards or less,
because that's consistently putting myself in an advantageous from a
defensive play calling situation. So you can have your even
if you have three thirty yard runs a game, I
(05:25):
really don't care because the other fifteen you're gonna put
yourself behind the eight ball and have a negative play offensively.
So I don't mind going fifteen to three on a
play on a run game standpoint, and eight Chan was
a big part of that, the biggest part of it
I thought. I thought his rookie season vision was outstanding.
I think that last year was a drop off in
(05:46):
that area. He wasn't as sharp with his reads and
how he read blocks and kind of anticipated angles and
how to attack them. But I don't think that means
he's incapable of seeing things better, because we do have
proof of concept and Devon talked about this watching cutups
last year. I felt like I left a lot of
the yards on the table end quote, and in this system,
the back's decision making and the track that he takes
(06:07):
impressing the gap and really kind of you know, making
things play out the way they're designed to and then
reading the angle of the blocks and hitting the gap
with good smart decisions.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
It's a lot to chew on.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
And for Devon, his role went from a one B
you know, behind Raheem Mostert there sort of and kind
of the change of pace like look out, here comes
the you know, Andres Munios the best closer in baseball
out of the bullpen, throwing ninety nine mile an hour
gas every single pitch with a devastating sinker. Like then
he went to being a starter. He couldn't just go
to the fastball all the time. And we've talked about,
you know this with with how Jalen Wright, Alexander Madison,
(06:41):
Oli Gordon and their ability to make you know, to
take a step ahead in the offense and reduce the
true running back load of a chan. And allow me
to make this abundantly clear, I don't want to reduce
a chan's workload I just I think he's one of
the best skill players receive a running back tight under
otherwise in the entire National Football League. But if we
can get more wide receiver snaps, more swings and screens
(07:03):
and varied pre snap alignments, and utilize more Jalen Wright
in some of those single back sets as the true
running back, I think defenses respect that more.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
I think it challenges.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Your vertical element even more than if you didn't have
a chan in that role. I thought he really showed
his salt, right, that is as a zone runner and
where a Chance says that he left yards out there.
To me, that was on tape of him trying to
hit the big play, and he talked about that and
not taking the cutbats taking the yards that was there
and affordable to him, which is a cardinal sin in
(07:36):
this offense. And that's why I think, you know, he
probably got a little bit of an earful from the
coaching staff because the number one rule of this offense
is we're going to create overplay and then take advantage
of how you've done that. It's like, I mean, that's
that's all of sport, right, Get the opponent thinking one
thing and then zag when they think you're gonna zig.
So I think the tape don't lie. And I love
(07:56):
that he's attacking it head on. And it's akin to
what John Embreys said about John hus Smith, who broke
every franchise record right for tight ends last year, and
the first thing Embry says about him in his first
media availability is well, you know, he left one hundred
and eighty five yards in the field after the catch
that he could have had. And I'll never forget having
a conversation with coach Embo about the after the Rams
game when I was like, what do you think about
(08:17):
that tight end? That tight end run? Remember John who
had that big right after catch? And he goes, well,
I think it's about time he starts listening to me.
I was like, okay, so we're coaching him hard then,
even though he broke records and that's hey, you know
that's complacency is a death neil in the NFL. Right.
So I just love that after a record breaking season,
that's what we're doing and asking the question what more
can we do? That's the type of grit that will
(08:39):
make you better and progress your skills as a football team.
Back to the run game here, it wasn't just some
bad reads by Devaughan, again making that abundantly clear. This
is a comprehensive picture. This is a comprehensive game that
requires eleven people doing their job on every single snap.
Because I thought some of the decisions were because the
guard play would get beat too early on in the
(08:59):
snap and not get enough movement. And you know, they
banked on continuity last year, and I tried to see
that as a potential formidable solution and it wasn't. It wasn't,
and they told you it wasn't because of what they
did this offseason with James Daniels and Jonah sevit Naya
with a top of the second round trade up player
and a high price free agent. That tells you how
(09:20):
they felt about that position and how it had to
get fixed. And on paper it looks fixed. And above
all of that, I felt the tape showed an inconsistent
ability to win on the edge in the running game,
i e. The tight end position, and sometimes it tackle,
And that tackle part really coincided with Austin Jackson's injury.
I mean, I'm gonna go back and watch these games here,
probably over the summer, which tells you how psychotic I am,
(09:42):
because I'm about to welcome in my third child and
I'll be crazy busy and probably trying to get some
golf rounds in there too while I'm watching, you know,
twenty twenty four Dolphins offensive tape. But I want to
go watch that game again, because we got whatever we
wanted on the ground game, really in the passing game
every single drive after most Start's fumble to open the
second half when we were up was at ten to six,
I think it was at that point of the game.
(10:03):
But then Austin gets hurt and the run game never
got back to where it was in that one. So
Austin's back Patrick Paul locked in a left tackle. We
improved the tight end position with Pharaoh Brown. And I'm
a big believer in Jalen Conyers. And we heard John
Embrase is a potential three down player. That's telling to
me in terms of how they view him. I know
that the team felt that he was a guy that
probably should have been drafted more so than going undrafted.
(10:24):
On top of the fact that I think that Julian
will play better than he did last year, just as
he played better last year than he did as a rookie.
We've gone over this how difficult the tight end position
can be to kind of pick up from a mental standpoint,
a mental load and how much you have to process
in real time while you're trying to hit two hundred
and sixty pounds moving targets who were run four four forties, right, Like,
that's the average defensive entities NFL is quite the moving target.
(10:48):
And to conclude the tape review with the numbers and
sort of bridge those two things together. You know, most
negative runs in the league last year, right, we had
eighty of them that lost Yardage's I mean you run,
give or take a thousand plays per year, that's almost
ten percent of your plays where you lost yardage. And
that's the defense saying we're gonna take those wins all
day long. If we can get those because you can't
(11:09):
take advantage of our light box and we can keep
the roof on the defense, that's you're gonna have to
go fifteen play drives, as the Dolphins did for much
of the year. So the running game, it's funny because
you think, like the way you get the more explosive
quick strike offensive drives is you got to get your
passing game cooking again. The way to do it is
to get your run game going again. And I think
(11:31):
you can make strides right there. You reduce those negative runs,
you reduce your need for true dropbacks, which reduces number
of sacks. And this quarterback, if he's taking ten true
dropbacks a game, with how quick he gets the ball
out of his hands, he probably takes one sack of game.
That's why his sack numbers are so ridiculously low. And
you see when he comes out of the game for Skyler,
if a Huntley or for Boil, the sack numbers go up.
It's just it kind of derails the system in a way.
(11:53):
And that's not just a Shanahan offensive feature anymore. Every
team wants to reduce their dropbacks and play quick gameplay
pass or play action game. I should say, but when
you're in second and twelve, you have to call true
drop back game.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
So you can improve that.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
And with a successful run game, you can also encourage
defenses to become more aggressive. If we're piling up five
and a half yards per carry and we have, you know,
a twenty to ten lead in the third quarter, and
we come out of the half and it's eight chan
for six, eight, Chan for five. All of a sudden,
it's a first and ten at to forty one. Here
comes jalan right for eight yards. He gets three yards
on second and two, and now it's a first and
(12:29):
ten at midfield. And they're not gonna just sit back
and be like, okay, we can we can watch them
take eight minutes off the clock and kick a field
goal and go up thirteen. They're gonna sneak a safety
down in the box and they're gonna try to run
blitch you, and then you get you know, potential miscommunications,
you get potential one on ones in the secondary. And
that's how Jalen Waddle catches an eight yard slant and
turns it into a forty yard play. And I mean
(12:50):
it also means you're not gonna get a bracket on
Reak and Waddle. You might vacate a middle of the
field zone defender when we throw that slant, and that
creates that one on one chance against the safety and
open space. And then if you tackle us, like okay,
it's a fifteen yard play. If you miss that tackle, well,
it's a seventy yard touchdown on the backside. So that's
where I go back to this offense being here we
go again to make a golf analogy. If my club
(13:12):
path at the downswing is one degree off, it's a
slight change that can make the biggest difference to keep
your ball straight, reducing side spin and adding thirty forty
yards of distance, which we all know we want that
you want to hit your shot into the green with
a nine iron, not a five iron. We love wedges
into our greens and regulation attempts, right, that's the best
(13:32):
way to score low. And if we can just sort of,
you know, reduce these negative runs and from a personnel
change and incumbent improvement after self scouting and working at it,
I think you can knock you know, the proverbial five
or six strokes off your game with just this one
minute change. Because I want to take a break real quick.
We'll come back on the other side and break this
down by the numbers, and just a heads up, this
(13:54):
podcast is going to go super long. I have a
lot to get to here, so you're looking at a
forty minute episode here today. First fifteen, you know the
can Let's go ahead and take our break, come back
and compare the Dolphins run game in twenty twenty three
with yards before contact versus two high structures. All of
that compare to twenty twenty four and give you more
evidence as to how this Dolphins offense can go back
to scoring thirty points per game.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
By running the football.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
That's next draft on podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought
to you by Auto Nation. Let's get one thing perfectly
clear here off the top of the podcast. When I
say run the football more, it doesn't mean just run
the ball to run the ball. I'm talking about efficiently
running the football to make the defense respected enough to
adjust to it. That's what we're going for here. And
(14:36):
the way you do that is running it against certain
structures where there are certain down and distances, and they're
going to say, we're not going to respect the run
game here because we want to protect the Tyreek Hill
seventy yard touchdown, and we're not so worried about a
Devon eight chan six yard run because we know that,
you know, fifteen of the eighteen times we can keep
it for a three yard gain or less. When you
can get teams out of that mode of thinking and
(14:56):
you can go to that Buffalo game and you can
consistently put yourself in second three second two. They can't
stop the passing offense either, because the short stuff remains
there for them, and just that game plan is going
to fail. So the key to it all is to
have an efficient running game, to give yourself a chance
to have an efficient passing game that forces the defense
to either change what they're doing or just get picked
apart down the field while killing clock and scoring touchdowns.
(15:18):
So that's where the value of the efficiency of the
running game against those looks becomes so important. I'm not
saying hand the ball off and bang your head into
a wall against a base defense with a safety sneak
down with eight man boxes don't do that. But when
they play those light boxes and give you two high structures,
you have to find a way to get five plus
yards per carry. And so I went back and looked
at this twenty twenty three versus twenty twenty four the
(15:41):
way box. I think it's important to kind of when
you get too much info and data in a podcast,
to just mix it up a little bit. So there's
a little Charlie Kelly for you hitting base balls drunkenly
after getting off a flight, drinking fifty six beers in
the air, Wade bog style. So in twenty twenty three,
versus two high structures, Dolphins had two points three yards
before contact. That means the running back was two yards
(16:03):
beyond the last scammage before they got contacted. On average,
that was eleventh most in the National Football League. And
against those structures they averaged five point two yards per
rush that was seventh most in the NFL. Punishing two
high looks at over five yards per carry and getting
more out of what's even blocked there. Because when your
yards before contact is lower than your rushing average, that
(16:24):
means the running backs are doing a pretty good job.
And then this is in total total yards before contact
was or rather average yards before contact was one point
nine to five that was third in the National Football League.
So that means we blocked it up at the third
best rate for our running backs in total. Whether the
structure was too high or whatever it was that that's
the comprehensive number there. Yards after contact for our running
(16:48):
backs was one than six hundred and thirty and eight.
Chan's average yards after contact was number one in the
league five hundred and thirty four total yards but just
under five yards every single rush after initial contact. Eight
chan was awesome, The run blocking was awesome, most was awesome.
The run game worked in every single aspect. In twenty
twenty four, run game versus two high structures, yards before
(17:10):
contact went down to one point nine to one. That
fell from eleventh down to seventeenth. Now here's where the
real rub is. And this is why, again, they told
you they wanted to replace the guards. They had to
get better guard played. They told you that. That's no
one's arguing that. But this is why there's so much
pushback from myself, from Kyle Krabs, from people that really
dig into the stuff. When you just say you have
(17:31):
to fix the offensive line, it was more than that.
It was the running backs. It was a tight ends.
We've covered it and this is a good example of that.
Rush average was four point six yards per carry. That
is twenty second in the National Football League. And that
disparity where we talked about eleventh and yards before contact
with a seventh ranked rushing attack. That means the running
backs are getting more than what's blocked for them. And
if it's the same number you're doing, you're doing the same.
(17:52):
But now yards before contact seventeenth, rush average twenty second,
that tells you that there's a disparity there in terms
of the running backs ability for the lack of rushing. Now,
if you really boil it down and get into the
nitty gritty of situational football, you can trace it back
to shortcomings really all over like again, a league worst,
and this is by a long shot, negative point h
(18:14):
nine yards before contact on short yardage runs. And that's
where the offensive line stuff really comes into play. Right,
I totally am in agreeance across the board with all
the angry fans about that. You were right about the
concept that we couldn't move people in short yardage, but
the back couldn't do much on his own, and the
edge was bad as well. It was all bad like
John who had an awesome season, but he lost so
(18:36):
many blocks across his face in short yardage or in
pass pro. And then Darren Smyth was cut for a reason.
It was just weekly film review was a challenge to
watch there, and Julian Hill was a work in progress.
And by the way, the thirty first ranked team in
the league in this category was in the positive. They
were point five to three yards. We were the only
team in the negative, and nobody was within a half
(18:56):
yard of being in the negative. Our total yards before
contact twenty twenty four was one point oh four, so
our run blocking gave us the twenty seventh best yardage
before initial contact, and then our yards after contact fell
to twelve fifty eight and eight Chan went from down
to five ninety, but his average went to two point
nine one, So in twenty twenty three he averaged four
(19:17):
point nine to four yards after initial contact. Last year
it was two point nine to one. Almost half as many,
I mean explosive runs went by the boards because of
the backs more so than the offensive line, in my opinion.
And I'm not sure what else you need you know
besides this stat to prove that it was the most
in the NFL among players with one hundred carries in
(19:38):
twenty twenty three, and last year it fell to thirty seventh.
And how did our play action passing game get impacted
by that? Well in twenty twenty three, And I'm only
gonna use two because I don't care about anybody else
in this category. One twenty four for one to seventy seven,
that's a seventy point one percent completion rate. He had
over sixteen hundred yards, it was nine point two yards
per pass That is a really good figure. Eight touchdowns
(20:02):
and two picks, a one to oh nine point one
passer rating. He had eleven big time throw that's tight
window down the field shots. Recording to Pro Football Focus,
he had four turnover worthy plays and he averaged two
point seven to two seconds time to throw, so he
had more time to throw because in this year that
number went down, So seventy percent nine point two one
oh nine passer rating, eleven big time throws, four turnover
(20:25):
worthy plays and two point seven to two seconds time
to throw. Last year he was seventy six for one
oh four. And there's the injuries right that right, he
reduced his number by over seventy attempts. That was seventy
three percent. But of course we threw the ball short
to the line of scrimmage. Eight hundred and fifty two
yards was eight point two yards per attempt, so a
full full yard dip in YPA. Three touchdowns compared to
(20:47):
eight and two picks and a ninety eight point seven
passer rating. He had just three big time throws, which
tells me he wasn't getting much influence on the defense
down the field. He had the same number of turnover
worthy plays. That's four and he had a two point
five seven second time to throw, so two tenths of
a second drop off there, and he only completed point
two percent higher a completion rate and one point four
(21:07):
yards per attempt per yard higher in regular passing compared
to play action twenty twenty four. But in twenty twenty
three he had a one point six yard jumped on
non play action passes. So, just to reiterate, aside from
the quarterback missing games, this is it. This is what
you do, what you go into the offseason with and
come away from yourself scouting when you ask where do
(21:29):
we come up short? It was right here? And how
do you improve it? That's the most important question? And
their answer was James Daniels, Jonah Savit and Aaya, Nick Westbrook,
Akine Farrell Brown, Ollie Gordon, Alex Madison, Larry Boram, and
we'll see what happens the rest of the way. And
I subscribe to the idea that there's a reason every
damn time they post one of those charts or a
stat rundown, like I saw Warren Sharp post the highest
(21:52):
EPA on third downs last year and two was sixth
behind like Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and
like Jalen Hurts. He's always with those guys in those
categories on every single one of these charts. And if
I may take it a step further on what is
a very analytical podcast, and for that sake, we'll go
ahead and do this real quick, because that is what's up.
(22:15):
And what's up is the third down EPA is essentially
a measure of how a quarterback makes plays in obvious
passing downs, like they know what's coming. How can you
play make it? Everyone says, well, you have to be
able to create off structure to do that. No, Tua
just does it at a high level, playing from the
pocket like most good quarterbacks do. And we have these
stretches where the offense was really damn effective. When he
(22:36):
first came back off the injury in the San Francisco game,
if we just catch a damn football, that game's a runaway.
In the fourth quarter after the first quarter of the
Green Bay game. He played pretty well in that one,
I mean really all but the Houston game and then
a pretty good chunk of that Green Bay game. And
to do that with really not much of a running
game from basically the Buffalo game on. Well, that's why
I want to get the running game going. And this
(22:57):
is kind of like how Tua goes. Like. Tua can
play like top twelve quarterback level when he's got no
running game and minimal support around him. But when you
get him like a highly functioning run game and an
offense that clicks for him, he becomes like a top
three quarterback production in production every single time you get
that for him. And getting back to what we did
in twenty twenty three, and we had a pair of
athletic tackles, a center that could push, that could win
(23:19):
on the edge, two guards who are as big as
they are athletic and allow us to push you off
the football and run you on the perimeter. Both Isaiah
Winn and Rob Hunt had first round athletic ability and
first round size to go along with that. That's what
Daniels and savit I Andaya have two wide receivers who
are the number one on most teams across the NFL.
You know, talk to a wall if you don't believe
(23:39):
about it. In Jaylen Waddle, he's such a great player
that needs to get more production. I'm with you on
that a dynamic tight end, we didn't have that in
twenty twenty two. A dynamic running back like Devon a Chan,
we didn't have a player like him in twenty twenty two.
It kind of sounds like what we have in twenty
twenty five, you know, from twenty three to twenty two.
And because I just keep thinking about this more on
the topic of Tye, you know, I saw this very
(24:01):
interesting fantasy football stat about him. This is the part
about fantasy football heads that I love, and there's a
lot that I don't love, but this these in depth
research projects that provide real game value. So our defensive
pass game opponents from year over year stats, and you know,
nobody's getting a bigger fantasy point per game adjustment than
Tyreek Hill and Wattle was fourteenth on that list. Essentially,
(24:23):
it says that this year's average pass defense rank is lower,
and that's a slippery slope slope because it's off last
year's rankings. But this part is what really interests me.
I wrote, soap, it's a slope slope, sippery, slippery soap.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
It's kind of funny.
Speaker 1 (24:37):
Ten of our seventeen opponents this year ranking in the
top twelve of single high safety looks, and Tyreek was
eighty seven percent more productive last year against that against
single high than two safety looks split safety looks. And
if we run the ball like I think we can
and want to, then I think we can force that
issue more. Or if teams say we're not going to
(24:58):
mess with that and then they call the defense that's
not their bread and butter, well then you've already created
an advantage by forcing them out of their game because
of how your personnel threatens it. Again, I remain extremely
bullish on this offense, to the surprise of nobody last break.
Right there, we are deep into the podcast and I
have a lot more content here to get to a
lot of mel bad questions from y'all. I might save
somebody's for later on on the show. We'll do that
(25:20):
next Here. Draft Time Podcast brought to you by Auto Nation. Okay,
I had a bunch written out here, and so what
I'm going to do is punt on one of these
segments until later in the week. I should say a
bunch of these questions. So if you don't hear your
question today, I'm going to answer it by the Friday podcast.
Sound good because we're gonna have this show tomorrow. We
(25:40):
have a practice to cover OTA practice.
Speaker 2 (25:43):
I can't wait for that.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
We're gonna have Coach McDaniel players after practice in like
an hour fifteen or so of actual football to cover
for you guys, so you don't want to miss that.
And then we'll come back on Friday, and I've already
planned out a bunch of these questions and then I'll
add the ones I didn't get to as well. So
I'm just gonna do a few of these off the top.
We'll go to about a half hour and we'll cut
the show right there. Okay, that one, we can kind
of just have some more time, so you guys hit
(26:04):
up the mail bag thread early and often, so first,
thanks for helping produce the show here, and I love
when this happens. We got some questions from a couple
of times, so I'm gonna start with this one here.
It was asked by both coach O line Coach Smith
sixty three, you guys know him as Eric Smith. He
does great offensive line in general film cut ups for
the Five Reason Sports Network. I did his podcast with
Hasam Patel a few months back. Really fun conversation there
(26:27):
and then Ben Brown excuse me at Ben Brown ninety
seven asked the same question, so Al Frankenstein the two
questions together as one. Essentially, they asked this, does the
return of Chubb and Phillips offset the loss of Ramsey
and Fuller in the secondary? And I love this question
because there's so many layers to it, and as you
guys know, this podcast loves to get into the weeds. Also,
(26:53):
just heard Cam got put in the time out, so
had a boy first. Ramsey is still on the roster today, right,
And we had a lot of back and forth Coach
Weave about this, and quite frankly, I thought the volunteers
not hostages comment was the best part of the entire
press conference. But if he's moved, and it sounds like
he will be, And with Greer saying so many times
that we've been in contact with some of the other
free agent cornerbacks out there, what I'm getting at is,
(27:16):
I don't think it's going to be Cater and then
a two man combo from the rest of the guys
we have here. I think it's more likely that it's
Cater somebody who's brought in, and then someone else from
the team, right, And maybe not even that because we've
as we've covered at length, sometimes that extra defensive back
is a third safety, and I think both. I think
the plan right now it's may so who knows, But
I think the plan is for if he and Ashton
(27:36):
to be starters, to be brought into play, and then
I think that Patrick McMorris has a chance to get
some serious run as a big nickel, you know, the
fifth defensive back coming on the field, being a safety
opposed to a cornerback. And I could definitely see a
world where you have that big nickel grouping of Iffy
Davis mc morris and then with cater and like Jack
Jones or Wassull Douglas or whatever it might be.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
I don't know who it's going to be. Now.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
I'm not going to sit here and say it doesn't
matter what you have at cornerback as long as your
pass rush is good. Now, the twenty fifteen Broncos, you
can pull up their tape and see countless reps against
like Tom Brady, and in the AFC Championship game for
that matter. You know, the best protection setter and the
best get the ball out quick quarterback of all time.
But with DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller and Sylvester Williams
(28:22):
and Malik Jackson and Shaq Barrett. There just wasn't a
lot that teams could do to manage that pass rush.
If you have that an all time great pass rush,
then I can say I don't really care who your
cornerbacks are. But even that team had like a key
to leave and Chris Harris right, so like they had
Pro Bowl cornerbacks too. But unless you're generational that way,
I think it's fool's gold to say it doesn't matter
(28:43):
who your cornerbacks are. Because we saw this in twenty
twenty two and that was a big point of contention
from me, and coming back in twenty twenty three say
I'm like, oh, we're much better here at this position
because of what we have at cornerback, and the pass
rush is going to be better because of that too.
They both were top ten that year after Chubb arrived.
If you break it down by like week eight on
in past rush win rate, but that defense still gave
up tons of points and it was because Byron Jones
(29:05):
was a mystery all year. X was kind of you know,
on the back end of his career. Needham and Trill
both got knocked out for the year. Early on, we
had two guys that signed a Special Teams aces and
Justin Bethel and key On Crossing, And by week ten,
both those guys were playing on the perimeter and they
played like Bethel played really well. I thought that year,
Crossing not so much. But I mean they weren't signed
(29:25):
to play cornerback every single like sixty snaps a game.
They were supposed to play, you know, sparingly and then
go be special teams demons. And I wanted to pull
some data on this, and I was just messing around
with opposing quarterback time to throw and the I guess
the correlation of the stats from that, but I don't
think it works because as we heard coach, we've say,
you know, teams look to take the short stuff against
(29:46):
our system because our system with all the quarters and
you know, two highs and the different uh you know, multi.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
The how do I say this?
Speaker 1 (29:55):
The the defense is so steeped in like two and
three high structures in the back back end, whether it's
quarter quarter half, you know, split field, half half, whatever
it is, you invite the underneath game because you're pulling
guys out of that spart of the field to reduce
the vertical passing game, which is NFL you know, one
on one these days. But the quarterbacks that see that
and take the short stuff and get the ball out fast,
(30:17):
they're not doing that because the pass rush is on them.
They're doing that because it's the best read in the
progression for the quarterback at the time. And so sometimes
quick game quick time to throw for a quarterback is
bad for a defense because that means the quarterback was
able to read pre snap where the ball had to
go and didn't deviate from that. And we've seen Tua
just destroy teams doing that. So it's not a great measure.
(30:38):
But you can toggle time to throw at one tenth
of a second at a time, and the yards per
pass or yards per play I should say, are always
are always over like five, even down to one point five.
So the league average is five point three. And here's
what I found something useful. Almost uniformly, each extra tenth
(30:58):
of a second the quarterback has equates to another tenth
of a yard per play. So like two seconds time
to throw was five point eight yards per play, two
point one seconds to throw was five point nine yards
per play, two point two was six yards and so
on and so forth a good time for this. So
to answer your question, yes, obviously if we get to
(31:19):
the quarterback faster, that can create more issues. But I
think you have to look at it like this, and
this goes back to the Denver comment. You know the
guys that that could win one on ones at any
point and reduce the need to blitz. Now it does
that mean you never blitz? No, of course not, because
the key for any defense and the reason I think
that Weaver is a brilliant game planner and game caller
is he mixes it up so well. His staff is
(31:39):
constantly feeding him tendencies throughout the course of the game. Hey,
you've only blitzed Ramsey this many times. You've only you know,
called on Seiler for or rather Jordan Brooks for it,
blitz this many times and he deciphers what that means
and then he breaks up his cadence accordingly. And the
sim pressure and blitz with all the rush games they run,
all of that has so much value. But in a
base look which is our Nickel package right? For two,
(32:00):
if I can line up with four of the five
between Chubb Chop Chubb Chop, Phillips, Zach and kg All
of those guys can be one on one pass rush
or pass protectors, and then that gives us, you know,
seven in coverage, and if you play connected, well communicated football,
then seven is more than the eligible five.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
You're gonna score your wins that way.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
And all of this ties back to Weaver talking about
where they are now in the system compared to a
year ago and McDaniel telling me that he felt a
click midyear last year, and now they believe they could
be even further along from day one, especially with OTA
attendance outside of five because we don't expect them to
be here with our defense ranking seventh in the NFL
(32:41):
and EPA per play over the second half of the
season right when that that clicking point was. And by
the way, three of the other teams in that mix,
or rather the rest of the teams ahead of us
in that mix were Philly, Baltimore, Seattle, Houston, Green Bay,
and Minnesota. Like we know what Minnesota's defense dated last year,
phiadel Fields was one of the best in the league.
But how about Baltimore and Seattle being two other teams
(33:04):
that you know, Mike McDonald and Zach Orr and then
Anthony Weaver. Three teams off that Raven's tree that we
talked about so frequently. That's now the most in vogue
defensive system in the NFL. Not to mention, you also
get Houston and there with Tamiko Ryan. So those were
like the best defenses in the league down the stretch
last year. And I go back to this comment about Weaver.
You know, whichever combination of eleven, however the shakes out,
(33:25):
we will play good defense because of the conviction and
the trust they have in one another. So that's kind
of where I come down that. Let's do a couple
more things here real quick. I want to there's there
was a review question on the Apple Reviews, which if
you guys put a question in the Apple Reviews with
the five star rating, I will answer it. So this
comes from it's just Robbie, why is it so great
to have Anthony Weaver as our DC if he's just
(33:48):
most likely going to leave after the season to be
a head coach, well, number one, if he does leave
to be a head coach somewhere, that probably means we
had a pretty good year, especially defensively. And as you
guys know, how I feel about the offense. If if
Weaver gets a head coaching job next year, that tells
me the defense was good and if twist Stay is
healthy that I know the offense will be good. Then
(34:09):
you might break your playoff drought Jet Robbie like. That's
that's the that's the upshot of that. And if he leaves,
you get two third round draft picks for him too.
So and I think what we has done with this
defensive staff is he's built a really good report with
the coaches beyond him and did a good job of
bringing in his guys but also keeping the guys that
he felt were, you know, of of value to him,
(34:30):
like Austin Clark and not I shouldn't say a value
of him, but guys that you know he thought were
that he didn't have to replace them for those positions.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
There's a lot of good coaches on the staff.
Speaker 1 (34:40):
And then I think it allows you to continue to
try to look for that system and try to find
the next guy to call that system. So would it
be a loss, Yeah, every team that has to replace
a coordinator, it's a loss for that team. But you
know who loses coordinators. The best teams in the league
That's why I would be very excited about losing him,
because it would mean we had a great year this
year in my opinion, and I just think he's a
great football coach. I hope he doesn't leave here, but
(35:01):
if he does, that probably means we did pretty good
this year. Last one Here a short and sweet one
from Kevin Duran at Kevin MD four. Which combo do
you want protecting your millions? If you're Walter White? Is
it Jesse and Mike from the show? Is it Hewle
and QB from the Show? Is it KG and Jordan
Phillips or Jonah and James? Or is it Richmond Webb
and Keith Simms? My goodness, what a question. I'm going
(35:22):
to go process of elimination style here. So Webb and
Sims they're legends, two of the best ever, but at
this stage I want them to have cushy jobs. They're
not being my muscle anymore. They're you know, their prime
was a while ago. They've earned the right to kind
of put their feet up. I can't have Jesse Pinkman
attached to my projects. Too volatile and quite frankly, too
easy to physically overtake. I think any of the other
(35:43):
three combinations would be acceptable here. Hewle and QB did
it in the show, so and plus you got the
smooth talker and Bill Burr and Hewl is just pure muscle.
And then KG and JP might be the strongest two
man combo on the entire damn planet. And then Jonah
and James. They literally protect a two hundred and fifty
million dollar atas set for their actual jobs, and for
that reason, I'm taking the two guards Jonah and James.
(36:05):
They are my official heel and QB from Breaking Bad.
keV also asked me who gets the most reps alongside
Jordan Brooks this year. I believe that begins with Tyrrel Dotson.
I think that he's got a pretty good leadership grasp
in that room, and he's been playing some He played
some good football down the stretch last year, and I
think the team believes in him.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
His contract reflects that.
Speaker 1 (36:23):
But I really think that Willie Gay is special from
an explosive standpoint, and if he clicks in the system
and we've can unlock him like I think he can,
I think we'll start with Dotson. I think you'll see
Gay kind of chew into that role as you go along,
and I would say Gay starts Week eight team if
he's healthy, alongside of Brooks, because I think that his
ability in this defense could be that special. Okay, I
have so many more questions to get too, but we
(36:44):
are deep into the podcast. I'm gonna go ahead and
pause on those, come back and get him on Friday tomorrow,
Ota practice coverage. Plenty of content coming your way here
on the Draft Time Podcast. In the meantime, you all
please be sure subscribe, rate review of the show. Follow
me on social at Wingfold NFL. Follow the team at
Miami Dolphins. Check out the fish Tank podcast with Seth
and Juice, check out the YouTube channel for Dolphins HQ,
(37:05):
Media availabilities, and so much more, and last but not least,
Miami Dolphins dot Com. Until next time finds up Calin
Cameron Daddy so already don't
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