April 11, 2025 • 34 mins
Inside of two weeks till the NFL Draft, Travis is looking at the options on the board for the Dolphins in R1, including various move-down scenarios. Plus, our final prospect profile takes us to Ann Arbor to check on Michigan CB Will Johnson. Finally, Travis breaks down the usage of safeties in the Dolphins defense and how many snaps are typically needed in that position.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
What is up, Dolphans And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast.
I am your host, Travis Wingfield. And on today's show,
we wrap up Prospect Profile series with Michigan cornerback Will Johnson.
Will break down the usage of the safety in this
defensive system across the NFL. We explore some draft trends,
some trade back cost option, some positional gluts, and a
(00:29):
heck of a lot more from the Baptist Health Studios
inside the Baptist Health Training Complex.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
This is the Draft Time Podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
We don't talk about ten, right Ten is Bruno's That's
the rule here on the podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
I'm over it. That's all I'm gonna say about it.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Before we dive into our final I swear our final
prospect profile deep dive. I wanted to do a quick
exploration akin to the one we did on the defensive
tackle Snaps a week or two ago. You guys responded
pretty positively to that podcast, so I thought this to
go ahead and do it again with another position group
that has a lack of clarity at it right now
(01:07):
in terms of who might be on the field for
those snaps, and we discussed on the Monday podcast. I
think it was Monday. The safety position is interesting in
that you don't really have anybody has started for an
entire season really in the room.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
I mean you have.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
I wrote down four, but I would call it three
potential guys that could assume a role as such, and
that does create a fun camp competition. But when you
think about it from a deployment standpoint and the ever
shifting landscape of defensive football in twenty twenty five, maybe
we aren't looking at it.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
The way we should be.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
That was the hypothesis on the defensive tackle position, and
we confirmed it by demonstrating how those other teams, the Ravens,
the Titans, and the Seahawks deployed their interior defensive line
snap counts and how many you had to find to
round out your roster to get yourself ready to play
a seasons on. The safety position is not nearly as strong. However,
(02:03):
I think the makeup of the cornerback group currently and
what could be added to it here in the next
couple of weeks, and you know, again could be confirmed
really if you get Texas's Jadea Baron because of his
ability to play in the intermediate as well as our
penchant to invert coverage with versatile receivers. I don't think
it's nearly as stark as the ability to round out
(02:25):
the defensive line reps with more edges and backers. But
we can take a look at the trends of those
same teams we explored in the defensive tackle thing and
tell you what you can expect in terms of who
will play how many snaps this year at the safety position.
So the Dolphins last year, for instance, I went into
this not having had a hypothesis, but I didn't have
I didn't know what the snap counts were for these
(02:47):
four teams. So Jordan Poyer last year played nine hundred
and sixty four snaps, Javon Holland played eight fifty four,
Marcus May played two ninety three, Elijah Campbell's seventy six.
Patrick McMorris played eight snaps. So you had three safeties
on the field two point seven percent of the time.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
And remember May was released in season.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Holland and Ployer both missed some games or I think
Poyer missed one game, right, and we were a two
safety defense. We had one thousand, sixty four snaps last
year as a defense. Multiplied that by two and you
get twenty one to twenty eight, twenty one hundred and
twenty eight reps and we had twenty one eighty seven
snaps played by safeties. I think that that right there
(03:30):
can be instructive because of what we talked about with
the cornerback usage. You used to have to think of
it as you need three safeties to play regular time
without injuries. And that was the case when we had
like Eric Rode down here, right, he was a big
nickel a lot of those packages. I Meanka Fitzpatrick was
a big nickel here his rookie season. But we only
called upon that big nickel package last year, which is
(03:50):
three safeties two cornerbacks opposed to three corners two safeties.
Just a handful of times you go up north to Baltimore,
Kyle Hamilton played one thousand and forty four snaps, Darius
Washington played seven hundred and twenty seven snaps, Marcus Williams,
who's still out there by the way, played six hundred
and one snaps, and Eddie Jackson played three thirty nine.
They also got thirty three snaps out of two youngsters
(04:12):
who you probably haven't heard of, So for total, that
was twenty seven hundred forty four snaps for the safeties
on one thousand, one hundred and thirty two snaps for
the defense. Multiply that by two and you get twenty
two hundred sixty four a much much larger use of
safeties than what we did. Three safeties twenty one point
two percent of the time.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
That's a big increase. My daughter yesterday told me she
loves math, which she's four, so you know, go figure
that one. Like she can she can do some traction,
which was pretty cool. But like, I don't know where
she gets it from, because I look at these numbers
and my brain just kind of like shuts down. But
twenty one percent compared to three percent, right, So that's
eighteen percent difference, give or takes some fractions. There, pretty
(04:52):
big difference between Miami and Baltimore. How about in Tennessee,
where Amani Hooker played eight hundred and fifty snaps, Daryl
Worley played four hundred and fifty nine, Quandre Diggs played
four to nineteen safety. The last name Brown. I didn't
write his first name down, and I forgot who is
played three hundred and eighty six snaps and they had
twenty six snaps to other safeties. So twenty one hundred
and forty snaps by safeties compared to one thousand and
(05:14):
fifty eight total snaps. Times that by two, we get
twenty one sixteen. That's a three safety rate of one
point one percent of the time, less than half of
your low figure. For the Miami Dolphins, the Seahawks, Mike McDonald,
Julian Love played one thousand, seventy nine snaps, ray Sean
Jenkins played five point fifty. Cavon Wallace played one hundred
and twenty seven, and they gave forty four snaps to
(05:35):
other safeties. That's eighteen hundred snaps to safeties compared to
eleven hundred and thirty snaps total. Times that by two,
twenty two to sixty, and now we're at a negative number.
So three safeties at negative twenty one percent at the time.
That means they're playing a lot of one safety looks
and they have multiple cornerbacks. Maybe I could have had
this wrong because they had like Josh job As like
(05:55):
their fourth or fifth cornerback, and maybe I don't know
how he was deployed. I know he was a corner
back with the Packers and in college before that, but
maybe he played some like safety role, So I could
be wrong about this, but that's the point, right. The
whole point is that this is not at all what
I thought I was going to get before I did
the Seahawks. I was thinking the answer here is going
to be, you know, it's a two safety defense unless
(06:16):
you have Kyle Hamilton because of what he can do
as a slot, as a processor, a middle of the
field like linebacker, a guy that can fit the run,
play the rat in the hole, but also get depth
in that hook zone and play you know, zone drops
on defense.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
He can play corner two.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
But then you look at the Seahawks and they have
three corners play over seven hundred and eighty five snaps
and their fourth guy played four hundred and forty three snaps.
So they kind of have the same mold that we
talked about with the defensive tackle defensive end position where
they basically eschewed a third safety and sometimes a second safety.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
For more cornerbacks.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
And you look at this Dolphins roster and I can
tell you right now whether you want to believe it
or not, like Cam Smith is going to get his
opportunity to play like they have to make good or
find out what they have in a former second round
draft pick who's not been healthy, he's not been on
the field and like you know, Arty Burns hasn't played
more than a handful of snap the last six years
like together. But if he's healthy and he can play
(07:14):
like I think there's some intrigue about how he can
play press man and give them of, you know, very
look from their zone coverages. So I could see a
situation where you do draft a cornerback in the first
round and then you've got Cam Smith and you've got
Arty Burns and you've got Storm Duck and you're rolling out,
you know, five defensive backs with maybe maybe four more
cornerbacks and maybe Efatu Melafon lose the one safety on
(07:36):
the field.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
We'll see.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
I don't know, but the takeaway here is that there's
no one way to do it. If you have that
matchup chess piece and if he can be that, but
so too could Nicky Man worry for in the draft
for that for instance, then you call upon more of
those three safety looks. Or if you get a Malachi Starks,
you could probably roll with more cornerbacks because of his
range of responsibilities and how much he can do in
(08:00):
terms of just being in multiple spots because he's such
a heady football player. To me, it's really fascinating. Maybe
it's not to you guys, but I have the microphone,
so you will listen to every damn word. I have
to say. I suspect that we'd see at least one
safety added between now in July. But either way, again,
like this is a tangent aside. I keep seeing, you know, oh,
(08:23):
the Dolphins have x amountal holes and they only have
ten draft picks. Like, dude, they added to Marcus May
last summer. Kalaias Campbell was a massive boon last summer.
Like teams add players later in the year all the time.
It's not like it used to be. You can find
guys in July and in August like it happens, and
you can trade your guys too. But we'll see what
happens down the road and all that. And we have
a nice pool of draft picks next year to you know,
(08:43):
select from if you want to add a veteran presence
to what is now the seventh youngest roster in the
NFL before the draft, and ten picks, So I think
that you might be able to be in a position
where you can say, hey, we've done a good job
of cultivating young developmental talent. Let's go find a starter
on the market who's out there for a Day three
draft pick. Like it happens sometimes, So I don't know,
we'll see between now and when that happens. I think
(09:07):
you can let the performance shape the way you call
it in terms of who gets playing time with what
you currently have. But I do expect that to be
disrupted by additions in the defensive backfield. There's just there's
no way. There's no way they're done in the defensive backfield. Okay, quick,
first segment. Let's go ahead and take a pause right
there and come back for our last prospect profile we're
(09:28):
doing here. It's Michigan's Will Johnson. That's Next Draft Time podcast,
brought to you by AutoNation.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
I would let to buy a bag.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
It is Masters week. It is actually Thursday. As I
record this podcast. Scottie Scheffler and Colin Morrikwa just teed
off And the reason I run that sound drop from
the Pink Panther in the Great Steve Martin is that
my pick for the Masters is Ludwig albelg And every
time I think of Ludwig Albalg, all I can think
about is Dann Balgo. So that's my pick. Who do
(10:01):
you guys got for the Masters this week? Is there
anything better than being out on that golf course? I
never have, but it looks just fantastic. I would love
to go out there. Maybe you get a couple of
a couple of pops, maybe a couple of gummies, and
have yourself a good time out there. Let's go ahead
and get into a prospect profile here. The final one
cornerback Will Johnson. You're probably saying to yourself, pay Travis,
(10:22):
how come you haven't done any offensive lineman. Well, I'll
tell you why, because all these mock drafts that you're
seeing and talking about Kelvin Banks and the Dolphins have
to get a left tackle. If you think the Dolphins
are going to take a left tackle and put Patrick
Paul on the bench, you don't know what's going on.
I saw, you know, I've had guests in the show.
I'm not gonna call him out by name because that's not.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
What we do here, but we uh.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
I saw some people say like the Dolphins are a
sure bet to take a left tackle. Now, it's like, brother,
you know, I appreciate how tough the national job is,
but like you ain't paying attention dog because they're not
gonna They're not gonna do that. They're not gonna move
Patrick Paul left tackle spot is his. So that's why
I'm not covering it right here. Maybe later on in
the draft you talk about a potential tackle who converts
(11:05):
inside the guard, but it's not gonna happen in the
first round. So that's why I wanted to keep my
focus here on the premium positions and why this guy,
to me, makes a ton of sense if he is there.
Will Johnson number two from Michigan, who played in just
six games this past season, and there are a couple
of tapes Washington and Illinois where you can tell he
was fighting through what was described as an incredibly painful
(11:25):
turf toe injury and he actually had a shoulder injury too,
And I saw a clip of someone putting together all
of his mistackles, like and you know, you can say, like, hey,
get off the field if this is the case, but
you could tell like he wasn't about to put that
shoulder onto ball carriers in space, and it made for
some bad tape. Now, he didn't work out in Indie
and he was he missed the Michigan Pro Day, but
(11:46):
he will hold a private workout next week in an
arbor for scouts. He is a fascinating study to me
because you know, I thought it was worth mentioning that
because in twenty twenty three, the tape was you can
see a guy that was being talked about as possibly
the best player in the class, Like he was up
there around like Travis Hunter and Abdul carter back when
(12:06):
the season was going on. And I feel like the
biggest flag is the fact that it's not the toe
injury that held him out from workouts, but because he
wasn't running for months after the injury, he pushed it
coming back and wound up suffering a hamstring injury. He
missed the game with a shoulder injury. So he kind
of had this like Tron Armstead run of injuries last year,
which I know is going to scare any Dolphins fan
(12:28):
and it probably should a little bit.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
But that's kind of where the knock is with him.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
But I think that when you watch his play style, man,
I've been using these like descriptors or monikers here for
these you know traits I want to discuss on the players.
And when I titled this one for Will Johnson as
successful gambler with sown feel and eyes, I think the
strength of his game is evident through the interception and
pass breakup numbers. I cannot remember seeing a player with
(12:56):
this statistical anomaly, not one that has played more than
a thousand snaps one hundred and thirteen targets nine interceptions
compared to just eight pass breakups. Like that's who has
more picks than pass breakups. But I would avoid him
too when he's picking off eight percent of your targets
toward him, I mean you'd have to hit like thirty
or forty yard plays on the ones you complete to
(13:18):
justify the risk and reward. Like if we're gonna target
Will Johnson ten times in the game, he's gonna pick
off one. We better get one hundred plus yards out
of the others, otherwise it's a net loss for us.
His numbers are crazy. He's six foot two, one hundred
and ninety five pounds. He has not allowed a touchdown
and coverage since twenty twenty two. He had thirty six
point seven passer rating allowed over the last two seasons,
(13:39):
and I have to apologize because I slept too much
throughout the process. This guy should not be on the
board when the Miami Dolphins make their pick, and if
he is, it's because of injuries last season.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
But I think that it was just one of those.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
Murphy's Law type of years for he in Michigan where
it just didn't really go the way you would want to,
and that can happen in football whole years can get
away for looking the Dolphins last year. The way he
can sink his hips and drive out of a back
pedal is the best in the class. It's better than
Travis Hunter. He's strong, he has exceptional ball skills, which
we covered already.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
He can high point in man.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
He can peel off and go impact the catch point
on somebody else's man. There's a RepA against Washington last
year where he gets beaten low red zone, but he
recovers and runs back into phase and lays out just
trying to put himself in the catch point or in
the passing lane, and it saves a touchdown. Like he
has just this innate awareness of spatial surroundings and how
(14:35):
to impact the receiver near him. He's so aggressive and
he might get beat because of it a few times
in the NFL. I mean, every cornerback in the NFL
gets beat. Just don't have a twenty twenty week two
Noah Igbinogny day where it seems like that kind of
killed your confidence for five years. But I think that
he has the makeup to be able to bounce back
from that, and the way I watch him recover, or
just maybe the spirit that he plays with. I don't
(14:57):
think he's the kind of guy you're gonna have to
worry about him losing his confidence. I think off coverage, read,
sink and drive is like his best trade. You know,
play eight yards off the football and just kind of
process from there. But I think he absolutely can play man.
On my first tape watch, I didn't get deep enough
into that, but studying it deeper, I think it's a
case of just because he wasn't asked to do it
(15:19):
doesn't mean that he can't do it. He challenges guys
with length, I mean terrific, terrific feat and the processing
is also exceptional. His pick six against the Gophers this year, Minnesota,
he's playing a three x two where you have two receivers,
three defensive backs. It's two off corners and safety help
over the top. Against those two receivers. They run this
(15:39):
vertical from the one the furthest out receiver, and the
slot inside the two runs a hitch and he is
playing on the perimeter. He knows he has that safety help,
so he can turn that vertical route to the safety
if he wants to. But you can tell that he
just knows what the throw is going based upon the
way he reacts, where he feels the combination coming before
it happens, and even before the quarterbacks hand separate, he's
(16:01):
already driving downhill on the hitch.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
He picks it off, he runs it back. He changes
the game.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
I never feel like he feels he has to cheat
to make a play, like the anticipation stuff is because
he trusts what he sees in terms of an opportunity
to make a play. Like USC game runs this, They
run this little bluff screen where he's in off coverage
and he doesn't go flying downhill and like, I have
to get there now because if I don't move now,
(16:26):
they're gonna beat me in this you know, short space,
and I can't make a tackle. But he patiently hangs
back and takes away the vertical they're trying to hit
off of the fake screen, and then they do throw
the check down like the secondary screen almost and he
comes up in realies and makes that tackle. When you
have a confident player who trusts his elite skills and
his elite preparation, man, that's a winning combination, and that
(16:49):
patience pays off all throughout his tape, whether it's late
hands to poke the ball free at the catch point
or when it's time time to you know, elevate and
time his jump. He is just the best way I
can put it is he's just smooth man. He's a
smooth operator. Hands down, best cover of all time by
(17:09):
the way. Coheden Cambria did a cover of The Trooper
by Iron Maiden, which is right there, but alien Ant
Farm takes it. But he's a smooth operator, a smooth criminal.
His understanding of the relationship of time and space, which
sounds like so galaxy brained, but like it's just it's
there for him. It's inherent, like when he can pin
a perimeter receiver to the sideline and then position himself
(17:30):
in the only place where the ball can go it's
just this natural feel for the game that essentially eliminates
all passing lanes. And I think it's why he gets
so many picks because he puts the receiver in a
spot where it's like, if the quarterback is gonna throw
this ball to him, it has to be in the spot,
and I'm there to catch it. If it's in that spot.
He's back downhill on the stem quicker than a hiccup.
(17:51):
The way he drives out of a back pedal or
even a still position is the best in the class.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
It's it's like it's like he has springs in his shoes.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
So student of the game, elite physical traits, and an
undying want to to be great.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Sign me up for all of the above.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
Speaking of the effort, and again there's you're gonna find
clips on social media of him like not tackling well
or maybe not having the best effort. But I went
back and watched to play and this next category is
titled effort, physicality, and want to This is the type
of stuff that gets me jacked up about a prospect.
And this is a guy that tried to play through
injuries last year, by the way, but Michigan is losing
the Texas by eighteen points three touchdowns. Texas runs this
(18:29):
misdirection with a fake to his side and the receiver
coming across on an end around. Not only does Johnson
point out like, hey, it's coming that way. They're gonna
run this end around. Here comes the receiver. He then
gets on his horse and saves what would have been
a fifty eight yard touchdown by making the tackle with
the five yard line and he came from the opposite
side of the field like fifty three yards away basically.
(18:51):
Then I'm looking at his blitz metrics and he just
doesn't do it. I mean he does, but we're talking
about eleven pass rush reps out of one thy three
hundred and seventeen career reps. But then I pull up
the tape and he has this one rep where he's
covering a nasty alignment receiver. This is when the receiver
is within basically arm's length of the tackle. And from
that position you see Jaylen Ramsey do it all the
(19:12):
time where he can convert to a blitzer, and he
does that, and they run a counter running play at
him which brings the backside guard downhill to him on
a block and he ghost dips the guard, which is
basically a pass rush move. You see edges us when
they think they can just dip under the outside arm
of the tackle and continue their pursuit of the quarterback.
(19:33):
And he pursues ball carriers like they stole his grandmother's purse,
like hey catch that man. The dude just flies all
over the field. I mean, if he did it in
that blowout, what does this say about the young man?
And he tried to play through the turf toe injury,
his body just would not let him do it. He
plays one hundred miles per hour against the run from
zone and from impress I think he can play I
don't think he can play inside. I think it's probably
(19:54):
the one thing that deters you from drafting him because
you kind of need guys that can play all three
spots here. But I think the fit is a really
nice compliment to all the pressure packages and sim pressures
the coach weave runs in terms of how he can
take care of his job on the back end. If
you can identify that hot route and clamp it, and
the quarterback has to evade a free runner and make
a hasty decision, it's just not good to not have
(20:15):
your top target, you're available to you because of the
rotation after a blitz, right. I think that's what Johnson offers.
I think a player like him cannot only increase your
takeaway figure but help your sack numbers.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
He just creates splash plays.
Speaker 1 (20:30):
I might have flipped my cornerback rankings here back to
Johnson on top because he's a special, special prospect. It
is that position flexibility that kind of gets me hung up.
So really I'm happy with either one, and I think
I don't know, man, I think my final board, if
number thirteen looks like this, I'm not going to go
in order yet.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
Ah, this is tough.
Speaker 1 (20:50):
We'll do it later on the podcast, on a later
episode of the podcast too, But right now, the guys
I would draft at thirteen if they are there, and
a few of these names are going to be long gone,
especially my first right quarterback, cam Ward, I would take
him if he's there. He's not going to be there,
Tackle armand Membu is going to be a top ten pick.
Tyler Warren obviously, you guys know that. I guess this
kind of is an order actually, And then Will Johnson
(21:11):
and Jadea Baron are of neck and neck and then
I go tackle Josh Simmons. I think he's just a
great player. I think he's going to be gone though,
Kenneth Grant Mason Graham, the two defensive tackles will see
who's there who's not, could both be gone. And then
cornerback Savon Revel. I know that's going to be considered
a reach on him, but I think he's going to
be the best pressman cornerback in this class. And then
running back Ashton Gent. So those are my stick and
(21:32):
pick options. The guys I like in trade down options
are the two safeties Nick emn Worry and Malachi Starks,
Gray's abel Will Campbell, who's not going to be there
for a trade down, and defensive tackle Derek Harmon. I
will give you guys my full horizontal board for the
top five rounds on an episode next week. We're also
going to have Chris Greer's press conference availability covering that
(21:53):
for you guys. Next week, we'll have Kyle Krabs in
the podcast for two shows on Draft week. Plenty of
draft content coming your way, and with that in mind,
we're going to go ahead and close up the show
on the other side and talk about what a trade
down could look like, who are some of the top
candidates to do that and what could you fetch in
a return if you can move down the board. That's
next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to
(22:14):
you by autuntation. We are inside of two weeks from
draft day. Two weeks from today, you'll be getting ready
for Day two of the draft, which, man, being on
the West Coast when it was at four o'clock was
pretty nice. These seven o'clock draft start times is it's
pretty rough, but hey, you know, late nights every once
(22:37):
in a while not too bad. Let's go ahead and
close with this today because we spent a lot of
time in the last couple of weeks really hammering down
some of the options at pick thirteen.
Speaker 2 (22:46):
And this is sort of the beauty of pre draft work.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
I think a lot of people look at this like
it might be I don't know, I guess a waste
of time from a content standpoint, but I view it
in the prism of this isn't work for today's reward,
but it'll come up at some point down the road,
and maybe that down the road payoff is in four
years when these guys hit free agency. And you have
a baseline understanding of where their game was as a
(23:11):
rookie at age twenty one versus where it is for
a second contract time at age twenty five. But also
perhaps it helps you get an idea for how the
draft might play out. These are things that the Dolphins
brass will be doing NonStop for the next couple of weeks.
The multitude of scenarios. Let's say the board breaks, you know,
ab cd ef all the way through Z, and then
(23:33):
through each of those twenty six permutations. Let's throw a
monkey wrench into each one, like somebody trades from position
Y to position X, and now we have permutation A
two B two C two and on and on and on.
And by doing that you kind of get a sense
for where certain suite spots exist. Like I know, we
all get mock draft fatigue, believe me, nobody more than
(23:55):
I do. But the process of running those for weeks
and weeks is that with a big enough sample size,
you kind of begin to get a consensus and by
differentiating which spots are hot for certain positions and maybe
where you can wait a little bit. Again, biggest disclaimer
I can possibly convey all of this is guesswork, right,
I mean, the evaluation of it is sort of guesswork,
(24:17):
but at least you've got tangible evidence with this. Trying
to predict the draft game itself, you're making educated guesses
on correctly identifying the powerball numbers. You can't possibly forecast
exactly what other teams will do, at least not all
of them. You have your intel and your theories, but
it only takes one ranch for everything to change. Like
(24:38):
when Larry mctunzel has a picture of him in a
bong mask leak out? Was that twenty minutes before the draft?
Or when a team breaks the seal on a position group.
We get this run that happens every single year. It
happened last year. We were part of it. Remember how
Laatu Latu, Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Chop Robinson were
all on the board at pick fifteen. You go a
(25:00):
lot to at fifteen, Turner at seventeen, Verse at nineteen,
Chop at twenty one, from seventeen picks and no edges
taken to four picks or rather seven picks I should say,
and four edges taken. So in hindsight, if you could
have forecasted that, then perhaps the Saints who picked fourteenth
ahead of that run and took a very good player
and or Talis Fuaga.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Maybe they could have found a dance.
Speaker 1 (25:22):
Partner that would have wanted to get ahead of Indie, Minnesota,
US and the Rams to take their preferred edge, or
in the middle of that, right like Turner a lot too,
come off, Hey we have version chop out there. We
only have two remaining round one edges. We're gonna have
to pull the trigger and go right here. So with
that in mind, I wanted to look at the board,
and I kicked around how best to execute this, and
(25:43):
I think what I'll do is run a mock draft
and take the info they give us, But I want
to look at what's available, who's directly behind us, who
has motivation to potentially come up and come up with
what the board has available, and the rate to get
the deal done kind of makes you respect the chaos
of draft night a little bit more. Right, teams are
(26:04):
processing all these scenarios and have just ten minutes to
make their move, So let's go ahead and push start
on this mock draft. And of course you get bombarded
by trade offers immediately, like the Broncos are offering twenty
and fifty one to get to thirteen. The Bears are
offering thirty nine, forty one and seventy two to get
up to thirteen, and then the Patriots are offering thirty eight,
(26:25):
sixty nine, seventy seven, one oh six and a two
next year, and we have to send back thirteen and
one fifty. I mean, the Lions and Vikings did a
huge in division deal a couple of years ago for
Jamison Williams, so I never say never, I guess. But
the values of those trade offers are as follows to
give you an idea. The Broncos, that Round one difference
(26:45):
from thirteen to twenty is a loss of three hundred
points on the famed draft value chart, which I know
outdated and all that stuff. Yeah whatever, And the fifty
first pick is worth three hundred and ninety points, and
actually they ask for one point fifty back, which is
thirty one point four points. So we come out of
that up fifty eight point six points a win. If
(27:06):
you're just strictly going off the draft value chart. We'll
circle back to the Broncos. The Bears trade offer. They
want us to get out of the first round altogether,
which usually cost a pretty penny. So Pick thirteen is
worth eleven hundred and fifty points. Picks thirty nine, forty one,
and seventy two are worth five, ten, four, ninety and
two thirty, so a total of twelve thirty. So again
(27:28):
a deal that gives us more value of what that's
eighty additional points that we gained in that trade. The
Patriots of thirty eight, sixty nine, seventy seven, one oh six.
That's worth one thousand and fifty two points, just one
hundred point shy of the mark we have it picked
thirteen and the lowest number for a second round draft pick.
If the Patriots won the Super Bowl, and we know
(27:50):
that's not gonna freaking happen this year, and there was,
pick sixty four would be two hundred and seventy points,
so you're one seventy in the Plus, if they win
the super Bowl, it's probably gonna be more like a
top ten picks, so it's going to be even four
hundred points higher than that. So all these deals are
beneficial for the Fins, and quite frankly, if our division
rivals want to give us a top four top picks
(28:11):
or four picks in the top one oh six in
a class that's deeper than it is top heavy, and
give us a premium pick next year in a game
where it's a numbers game. Sign me up for that,
and for what it's worth. I'm a massive proponent, especially
this year of a trade down. I think if you
get this class up to twelve thirteen picks, you can
make a massive impact in terms of getting what you
(28:33):
need badly cheap contributors. Even if half those picks don't
work out, we get six or seven guys, that's gonna
be a phenomenal draft class, one of the best in
the league if you can do it. Our board has
Shadur Sanders, Teed McMillan, Kelvin Banks, Matthew Golden, Mike Green.
These are all premium position guys that are near the
(28:54):
top of the class, which to me is a great
potential move backboard with those wide receivers. The Broncos are
a good example.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
Well.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
I think they could be in search for a weapon,
whether it's a receiver or Ashton genty. They don't currently
have a proven workhorse back, and Sean Payton always had
those with the Saints, even if it was the two
man committee between Ingram and Kamara. I also think they
could use wide receiver help and maybe see Ted McMillan
or Matthew Golden, whoever their receiver one is. Maybe they
think that's a good spot to come up and get
(29:21):
that player. And that's gonna mean pick fifty one if
they do that, and that's a perfect spot to scoop
up another premium pick for a sliding back seven spots right.
And it also frees you up to go the safer route,
like example, what if it's Gray's Abel and you know
you've got a starting left guard or right guard, whatever
it's going to be for the next five years with him,
you can take a high floor player and at a top.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Fifty one pick.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
I like that strategy, especially in a class where it's
like fine starters, and Zabel's just an example. Other options exist,
but he is like one of these safest players in
the entire class to me, the North Dakota State guard
the Bears were a team that I was going to
mention because they have that pick at ten, But let's
say they go genty. Why not get that name on
GENTI and a lot of folks I think think that's
(30:04):
a potential pairing For the Bears, we saw them attack
the interior offensive line, but could probably still use a tackle,
and with three teams behind us that could go offensive tackle.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
Maybe Will Campbell slides.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Maybe they want to get up for Kelvin Banks and
you can recoup two top forty picks and some change.
That's also intriguing to me. The Patriots one, I can't buy.
I don't think they're in a position to sell off
five picks for one player. But just looking around the
rest of the first round, you try to look at
the needs of the teams right behind you, and maybe
this is a quarterback. Maybe it's Shedur Sanders, maybe it's
(30:35):
Jackson Dart I don't know. And you get the Steelers
to go up from twenty one to prevent anybody else
from going up and taking their guy. But you just
never know. And the quarterback is the best position to
have if you want to trade down. We learned that
back in twenty twenty one with Trey Lance and the
bountiful Treasure trow of that provided us. Here are the
biggest needs as listed by ESPN or maybe it's NFL
(30:56):
dot Com. For the teams directly behind us, the Colts
tight end, offensive line, linebacker, edge, running back, the Falcons edge,
defensive tackle, corner, O line and safety, the Cardinals O line, receiver, edge,
D line, corner, the Bengals edge, safety, backer, O line,
and corner. Notice the offensive line is in there for
all five of the all four of those teams.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
He usually is.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
Everybody needs offensive line help. But that's where I look
at the potential slide of a Will Campbell. Some think
he's a guard, which could absolutely push him out of
the top ten. But what if the Bengals have him
as a tackle and see a potential left tackle for
five years of cost control.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
Contract.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
You could slide back as they are moving up over
two teams that could also go offensive line, or a
team further back that wants to jump the entire run.
And look at Seattle, whose offensive line was atrocious a
year ago, doing large part to injuries, and they just
signed a quarterback who thrived behind a good system that
kept him upright compared to where he was a bust
in the league behind an offensive line that couldn't do
(31:56):
that With the Jets, right edge is in there for
everybody too. And I just listened to a Move the
Stix podcast that said that Mike Green has been attached
to the Falcons as much as any prospect to a
team outside of cam Ward, to the Titans, every one overall.
So maybe the Bengals are thinking about the future beyond
Trey Hendricks, who has voiced his desire for a new
contract for a couple of years. Or maybe the Lions
want to make a splash to pair somebody with Aiden
(32:17):
Hutchinson off the edge, as they kind of lost him
last year and couldn't get after the quarterback. And they
come all the way up from twenty eight. I think
that's where you look O line, edge, wide receiver need teams.
Perhaps one of the quarterback slides and there are dance
partners all over the back end of the first round
who maybe say, there's you know, thirteen really good prospects
in this year's class. Let's go make a push to
(32:38):
get one of those guys and add one of the
blue chippers to our roster, opposed to, you know, having
more picks for the starters, which is what we need
more of. So it's like a you know, I scratch
your back, you scratch mine.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
Well, Jules, the funny thing about my back is a
it's located on my.
Speaker 1 (32:52):
Who we like to have fun just for prosterity and
the issues in giggles, shits and giggles. I ran that mock,
taking the Patriots deal. It was too sweet to pass up.
And here's what I got. Defensive tackle ty Leek Williams
out of Ohio State, the best run defending defensive tackle
in the class, perhaps at thirty eight. At forty eight,
Jonah Savina, I think I'm saying that right. The Arizona
guard who looks like an absolute beast to me, my
(33:14):
future Trent McDuffie, Jacob Parrish out of Kansas State at
the cornerback, taking him a pick sixty nine. Nice at
seventy seven, I'm going to replace receiver, hopefully Kyle Williams
from Washington State.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
Go Koks bump.
Speaker 1 (33:26):
And then it picked ninety eight safety Laithan Ransom out
of Ohio State, and it picked one oh six defensive
tackle CJ.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
West out of Indiana.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
Then I'd probably go with Jackson Hawes and Jalen Conyers,
the Texas Tech and Georgia Tech tight ends, double dip
on them later on, maybe find a running back at
some point on Day three. All of that and the
premium pick next year, not too bad. See, these scenarios
are fun to talk there. We're not gonna get a
pick from the Patriots, but it's fun to talk about it.
And we'll do plenty more of that here on the
podcast in the next two weeks. Here getting you ready
(33:53):
for the NFL Draft. In the meantime, that is going
to be my time. You all, please be sure subscribe, rate,
review the show on wherever you get your podcasts. Go
ahead and follow me on social at Winkle NFL. The
team at Miami Dolphins. Check out the fish Tank podcast
with Seth and Juice, the YouTube channel for Dolphins, HQ,
Media availabilities, and so much more. Last, but not least,
Miami Dolphins dot Com. Until next time, Finns up call
(34:15):
on Cameron.
Speaker 2 (34:16):
Daddy just come home.
What is up, Dolphans And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast.
I am your host, Travis Wingfield. And on today's show,
we wrap up Prospect Profile series with Michigan cornerback Will Johnson.
Will break down the usage of the safety in this
defensive system across the NFL. We explore some draft trends,
some trade back cost option, some positional gluts, and a
(00:29):
heck of a lot more from the Baptist Health Studios
inside the Baptist Health Training Complex.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
This is the Draft Time Podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
We don't talk about ten, right Ten is Bruno's That's
the rule here on the podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
I'm over it. That's all I'm gonna say about it.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Before we dive into our final I swear our final
prospect profile deep dive. I wanted to do a quick
exploration akin to the one we did on the defensive
tackle Snaps a week or two ago. You guys responded
pretty positively to that podcast, so I thought this to
go ahead and do it again with another position group
that has a lack of clarity at it right now
(01:07):
in terms of who might be on the field for
those snaps, and we discussed on the Monday podcast. I
think it was Monday. The safety position is interesting in
that you don't really have anybody has started for an
entire season really in the room.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
I mean you have.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
I wrote down four, but I would call it three
potential guys that could assume a role as such, and
that does create a fun camp competition. But when you
think about it from a deployment standpoint and the ever
shifting landscape of defensive football in twenty twenty five, maybe
we aren't looking at it.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
The way we should be.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
That was the hypothesis on the defensive tackle position, and
we confirmed it by demonstrating how those other teams, the Ravens,
the Titans, and the Seahawks deployed their interior defensive line
snap counts and how many you had to find to
round out your roster to get yourself ready to play
a seasons on. The safety position is not nearly as strong. However,
(02:03):
I think the makeup of the cornerback group currently and
what could be added to it here in the next
couple of weeks, and you know, again could be confirmed
really if you get Texas's Jadea Baron because of his
ability to play in the intermediate as well as our
penchant to invert coverage with versatile receivers. I don't think
it's nearly as stark as the ability to round out
(02:25):
the defensive line reps with more edges and backers. But
we can take a look at the trends of those
same teams we explored in the defensive tackle thing and
tell you what you can expect in terms of who
will play how many snaps this year at the safety position.
So the Dolphins last year, for instance, I went into
this not having had a hypothesis, but I didn't have
I didn't know what the snap counts were for these
(02:47):
four teams. So Jordan Poyer last year played nine hundred
and sixty four snaps, Javon Holland played eight fifty four,
Marcus May played two ninety three, Elijah Campbell's seventy six.
Patrick McMorris played eight snaps. So you had three safeties
on the field two point seven percent of the time.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
And remember May was released in season.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Holland and Ployer both missed some games or I think
Poyer missed one game, right, and we were a two
safety defense. We had one thousand, sixty four snaps last
year as a defense. Multiplied that by two and you
get twenty one to twenty eight, twenty one hundred and
twenty eight reps and we had twenty one eighty seven
snaps played by safeties. I think that that right there
(03:30):
can be instructive because of what we talked about with
the cornerback usage. You used to have to think of
it as you need three safeties to play regular time
without injuries. And that was the case when we had
like Eric Rode down here, right, he was a big
nickel a lot of those packages. I Meanka Fitzpatrick was
a big nickel here his rookie season. But we only
called upon that big nickel package last year, which is
(03:50):
three safeties two cornerbacks opposed to three corners two safeties.
Just a handful of times you go up north to Baltimore,
Kyle Hamilton played one thousand and forty four snaps, Darius
Washington played seven hundred and twenty seven snaps, Marcus Williams,
who's still out there by the way, played six hundred
and one snaps, and Eddie Jackson played three thirty nine.
They also got thirty three snaps out of two youngsters
(04:12):
who you probably haven't heard of, So for total, that
was twenty seven hundred forty four snaps for the safeties
on one thousand, one hundred and thirty two snaps for
the defense. Multiply that by two and you get twenty
two hundred sixty four a much much larger use of
safeties than what we did. Three safeties twenty one point
two percent of the time.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
That's a big increase. My daughter yesterday told me she
loves math, which she's four, so you know, go figure
that one. Like she can she can do some traction,
which was pretty cool. But like, I don't know where
she gets it from, because I look at these numbers
and my brain just kind of like shuts down. But
twenty one percent compared to three percent, right, So that's
eighteen percent difference, give or takes some fractions. There, pretty
(04:52):
big difference between Miami and Baltimore. How about in Tennessee,
where Amani Hooker played eight hundred and fifty snaps, Daryl
Worley played four hundred and fifty nine, Quandre Diggs played
four to nineteen safety. The last name Brown. I didn't
write his first name down, and I forgot who is
played three hundred and eighty six snaps and they had
twenty six snaps to other safeties. So twenty one hundred
and forty snaps by safeties compared to one thousand and
(05:14):
fifty eight total snaps. Times that by two, we get
twenty one sixteen. That's a three safety rate of one
point one percent of the time, less than half of
your low figure. For the Miami Dolphins, the Seahawks, Mike McDonald,
Julian Love played one thousand, seventy nine snaps, ray Sean
Jenkins played five point fifty. Cavon Wallace played one hundred
and twenty seven, and they gave forty four snaps to
(05:35):
other safeties. That's eighteen hundred snaps to safeties compared to
eleven hundred and thirty snaps total. Times that by two,
twenty two to sixty, and now we're at a negative number.
So three safeties at negative twenty one percent at the time.
That means they're playing a lot of one safety looks
and they have multiple cornerbacks. Maybe I could have had
this wrong because they had like Josh job As like
(05:55):
their fourth or fifth cornerback, and maybe I don't know
how he was deployed. I know he was a corner
back with the Packers and in college before that, but
maybe he played some like safety role, So I could
be wrong about this, but that's the point, right. The
whole point is that this is not at all what
I thought I was going to get before I did
the Seahawks. I was thinking the answer here is going
to be, you know, it's a two safety defense unless
(06:16):
you have Kyle Hamilton because of what he can do
as a slot, as a processor, a middle of the
field like linebacker, a guy that can fit the run,
play the rat in the hole, but also get depth
in that hook zone and play you know, zone drops
on defense.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
He can play corner two.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
But then you look at the Seahawks and they have
three corners play over seven hundred and eighty five snaps
and their fourth guy played four hundred and forty three snaps.
So they kind of have the same mold that we
talked about with the defensive tackle defensive end position where
they basically eschewed a third safety and sometimes a second safety.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
For more cornerbacks.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
And you look at this Dolphins roster and I can
tell you right now whether you want to believe it
or not, like Cam Smith is going to get his
opportunity to play like they have to make good or
find out what they have in a former second round
draft pick who's not been healthy, he's not been on
the field and like you know, Arty Burns hasn't played
more than a handful of snap the last six years
like together. But if he's healthy and he can play
(07:14):
like I think there's some intrigue about how he can
play press man and give them of, you know, very
look from their zone coverages. So I could see a
situation where you do draft a cornerback in the first
round and then you've got Cam Smith and you've got
Arty Burns and you've got Storm Duck and you're rolling out,
you know, five defensive backs with maybe maybe four more
cornerbacks and maybe Efatu Melafon lose the one safety on
(07:36):
the field.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
We'll see.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
I don't know, but the takeaway here is that there's
no one way to do it. If you have that
matchup chess piece and if he can be that, but
so too could Nicky Man worry for in the draft
for that for instance, then you call upon more of
those three safety looks. Or if you get a Malachi Starks,
you could probably roll with more cornerbacks because of his
range of responsibilities and how much he can do in
(08:00):
terms of just being in multiple spots because he's such
a heady football player. To me, it's really fascinating. Maybe
it's not to you guys, but I have the microphone,
so you will listen to every damn word. I have
to say. I suspect that we'd see at least one
safety added between now in July. But either way, again,
like this is a tangent aside. I keep seeing, you know, oh,
(08:23):
the Dolphins have x amountal holes and they only have
ten draft picks. Like, dude, they added to Marcus May
last summer. Kalaias Campbell was a massive boon last summer.
Like teams add players later in the year all the time.
It's not like it used to be. You can find
guys in July and in August like it happens, and
you can trade your guys too. But we'll see what
happens down the road and all that. And we have
a nice pool of draft picks next year to you know,
(08:43):
select from if you want to add a veteran presence
to what is now the seventh youngest roster in the
NFL before the draft, and ten picks, So I think
that you might be able to be in a position
where you can say, hey, we've done a good job
of cultivating young developmental talent. Let's go find a starter
on the market who's out there for a Day three
draft pick. Like it happens sometimes, So I don't know,
we'll see between now and when that happens. I think
(09:07):
you can let the performance shape the way you call
it in terms of who gets playing time with what
you currently have. But I do expect that to be
disrupted by additions in the defensive backfield. There's just there's
no way. There's no way they're done in the defensive backfield. Okay, quick,
first segment. Let's go ahead and take a pause right
there and come back for our last prospect profile we're
(09:28):
doing here. It's Michigan's Will Johnson. That's Next Draft Time podcast,
brought to you by AutoNation.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
I would let to buy a bag.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
It is Masters week. It is actually Thursday. As I
record this podcast. Scottie Scheffler and Colin Morrikwa just teed
off And the reason I run that sound drop from
the Pink Panther in the Great Steve Martin is that
my pick for the Masters is Ludwig albelg And every
time I think of Ludwig Albalg, all I can think
about is Dann Balgo. So that's my pick. Who do
(10:01):
you guys got for the Masters this week? Is there
anything better than being out on that golf course? I
never have, but it looks just fantastic. I would love
to go out there. Maybe you get a couple of
a couple of pops, maybe a couple of gummies, and
have yourself a good time out there. Let's go ahead
and get into a prospect profile here. The final one
cornerback Will Johnson. You're probably saying to yourself, pay Travis,
(10:22):
how come you haven't done any offensive lineman. Well, I'll
tell you why, because all these mock drafts that you're
seeing and talking about Kelvin Banks and the Dolphins have
to get a left tackle. If you think the Dolphins
are going to take a left tackle and put Patrick
Paul on the bench, you don't know what's going on.
I saw, you know, I've had guests in the show.
I'm not gonna call him out by name because that's not.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
What we do here, but we uh.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
I saw some people say like the Dolphins are a
sure bet to take a left tackle. Now, it's like, brother,
you know, I appreciate how tough the national job is,
but like you ain't paying attention dog because they're not
gonna They're not gonna do that. They're not gonna move
Patrick Paul left tackle spot is his. So that's why
I'm not covering it right here. Maybe later on in
the draft you talk about a potential tackle who converts
(11:05):
inside the guard, but it's not gonna happen in the
first round. So that's why I wanted to keep my
focus here on the premium positions and why this guy,
to me, makes a ton of sense if he is there.
Will Johnson number two from Michigan, who played in just
six games this past season, and there are a couple
of tapes Washington and Illinois where you can tell he
was fighting through what was described as an incredibly painful
(11:25):
turf toe injury and he actually had a shoulder injury too,
And I saw a clip of someone putting together all
of his mistackles, like and you know, you can say, like, hey,
get off the field if this is the case, but
you could tell like he wasn't about to put that
shoulder onto ball carriers in space, and it made for
some bad tape. Now, he didn't work out in Indie
and he was he missed the Michigan Pro Day, but
(11:46):
he will hold a private workout next week in an
arbor for scouts. He is a fascinating study to me
because you know, I thought it was worth mentioning that
because in twenty twenty three, the tape was you can
see a guy that was being talked about as possibly
the best player in the class, Like he was up
there around like Travis Hunter and Abdul carter back when
(12:06):
the season was going on. And I feel like the
biggest flag is the fact that it's not the toe
injury that held him out from workouts, but because he
wasn't running for months after the injury, he pushed it
coming back and wound up suffering a hamstring injury. He
missed the game with a shoulder injury. So he kind
of had this like Tron Armstead run of injuries last year,
which I know is going to scare any Dolphins fan
(12:28):
and it probably should a little bit.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
But that's kind of where the knock is with him.
Speaker 1 (12:31):
But I think that when you watch his play style, man,
I've been using these like descriptors or monikers here for
these you know traits I want to discuss on the players.
And when I titled this one for Will Johnson as
successful gambler with sown feel and eyes, I think the
strength of his game is evident through the interception and
pass breakup numbers. I cannot remember seeing a player with
(12:56):
this statistical anomaly, not one that has played more than
a thousand snaps one hundred and thirteen targets nine interceptions
compared to just eight pass breakups. Like that's who has
more picks than pass breakups. But I would avoid him
too when he's picking off eight percent of your targets
toward him, I mean you'd have to hit like thirty
or forty yard plays on the ones you complete to
(13:18):
justify the risk and reward. Like if we're gonna target
Will Johnson ten times in the game, he's gonna pick
off one. We better get one hundred plus yards out
of the others, otherwise it's a net loss for us.
His numbers are crazy. He's six foot two, one hundred
and ninety five pounds. He has not allowed a touchdown
and coverage since twenty twenty two. He had thirty six
point seven passer rating allowed over the last two seasons,
(13:39):
and I have to apologize because I slept too much
throughout the process. This guy should not be on the
board when the Miami Dolphins make their pick, and if
he is, it's because of injuries last season.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
But I think that it was just one of those.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
Murphy's Law type of years for he in Michigan where
it just didn't really go the way you would want to,
and that can happen in football whole years can get
away for looking the Dolphins last year. The way he
can sink his hips and drive out of a back
pedal is the best in the class. It's better than
Travis Hunter. He's strong, he has exceptional ball skills, which
we covered already.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
He can high point in man.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
He can peel off and go impact the catch point
on somebody else's man. There's a RepA against Washington last
year where he gets beaten low red zone, but he
recovers and runs back into phase and lays out just
trying to put himself in the catch point or in
the passing lane, and it saves a touchdown. Like he
has just this innate awareness of spatial surroundings and how
(14:35):
to impact the receiver near him. He's so aggressive and
he might get beat because of it a few times
in the NFL. I mean, every cornerback in the NFL
gets beat. Just don't have a twenty twenty week two
Noah Igbinogny day where it seems like that kind of
killed your confidence for five years. But I think that
he has the makeup to be able to bounce back
from that, and the way I watch him recover, or
just maybe the spirit that he plays with. I don't
(14:57):
think he's the kind of guy you're gonna have to
worry about him losing his confidence. I think off coverage, read,
sink and drive is like his best trade. You know,
play eight yards off the football and just kind of
process from there. But I think he absolutely can play man.
On my first tape watch, I didn't get deep enough
into that, but studying it deeper, I think it's a
case of just because he wasn't asked to do it
(15:19):
doesn't mean that he can't do it. He challenges guys
with length, I mean terrific, terrific feat and the processing
is also exceptional. His pick six against the Gophers this year, Minnesota,
he's playing a three x two where you have two receivers,
three defensive backs. It's two off corners and safety help
over the top. Against those two receivers. They run this
(15:39):
vertical from the one the furthest out receiver, and the
slot inside the two runs a hitch and he is
playing on the perimeter. He knows he has that safety help,
so he can turn that vertical route to the safety
if he wants to. But you can tell that he
just knows what the throw is going based upon the
way he reacts, where he feels the combination coming before
it happens, and even before the quarterbacks hand separate, he's
(16:01):
already driving downhill on the hitch.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
He picks it off, he runs it back. He changes
the game.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
I never feel like he feels he has to cheat
to make a play, like the anticipation stuff is because
he trusts what he sees in terms of an opportunity
to make a play. Like USC game runs this, They
run this little bluff screen where he's in off coverage
and he doesn't go flying downhill and like, I have
to get there now because if I don't move now,
(16:26):
they're gonna beat me in this you know, short space,
and I can't make a tackle. But he patiently hangs
back and takes away the vertical they're trying to hit
off of the fake screen, and then they do throw
the check down like the secondary screen almost and he
comes up in realies and makes that tackle. When you
have a confident player who trusts his elite skills and
his elite preparation, man, that's a winning combination, and that
(16:49):
patience pays off all throughout his tape, whether it's late
hands to poke the ball free at the catch point
or when it's time time to you know, elevate and
time his jump. He is just the best way I
can put it is he's just smooth man. He's a
smooth operator. Hands down, best cover of all time by
(17:09):
the way. Coheden Cambria did a cover of The Trooper
by Iron Maiden, which is right there, but alien Ant
Farm takes it. But he's a smooth operator, a smooth criminal.
His understanding of the relationship of time and space, which
sounds like so galaxy brained, but like it's just it's
there for him. It's inherent, like when he can pin
a perimeter receiver to the sideline and then position himself
(17:30):
in the only place where the ball can go it's
just this natural feel for the game that essentially eliminates
all passing lanes. And I think it's why he gets
so many picks because he puts the receiver in a
spot where it's like, if the quarterback is gonna throw
this ball to him, it has to be in the spot,
and I'm there to catch it. If it's in that spot.
He's back downhill on the stem quicker than a hiccup.
(17:51):
The way he drives out of a back pedal or
even a still position is the best in the class.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
It's it's like it's like he has springs in his shoes.
Speaker 1 (17:59):
So student of the game, elite physical traits, and an
undying want to to be great.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Sign me up for all of the above.
Speaker 1 (18:06):
Speaking of the effort, and again there's you're gonna find
clips on social media of him like not tackling well
or maybe not having the best effort. But I went
back and watched to play and this next category is
titled effort, physicality, and want to This is the type
of stuff that gets me jacked up about a prospect.
And this is a guy that tried to play through
injuries last year, by the way, but Michigan is losing
the Texas by eighteen points three touchdowns. Texas runs this
(18:29):
misdirection with a fake to his side and the receiver
coming across on an end around. Not only does Johnson
point out like, hey, it's coming that way. They're gonna
run this end around. Here comes the receiver. He then
gets on his horse and saves what would have been
a fifty eight yard touchdown by making the tackle with
the five yard line and he came from the opposite
side of the field like fifty three yards away basically.
(18:51):
Then I'm looking at his blitz metrics and he just
doesn't do it. I mean he does, but we're talking
about eleven pass rush reps out of one thy three
hundred and seventeen career reps. But then I pull up
the tape and he has this one rep where he's
covering a nasty alignment receiver. This is when the receiver
is within basically arm's length of the tackle. And from
that position you see Jaylen Ramsey do it all the
(19:12):
time where he can convert to a blitzer, and he
does that, and they run a counter running play at
him which brings the backside guard downhill to him on
a block and he ghost dips the guard, which is
basically a pass rush move. You see edges us when
they think they can just dip under the outside arm
of the tackle and continue their pursuit of the quarterback.
(19:33):
And he pursues ball carriers like they stole his grandmother's purse,
like hey catch that man. The dude just flies all
over the field. I mean, if he did it in
that blowout, what does this say about the young man?
And he tried to play through the turf toe injury,
his body just would not let him do it. He
plays one hundred miles per hour against the run from
zone and from impress I think he can play I
don't think he can play inside. I think it's probably
(19:54):
the one thing that deters you from drafting him because
you kind of need guys that can play all three
spots here. But I think the fit is a really
nice compliment to all the pressure packages and sim pressures
the coach weave runs in terms of how he can
take care of his job on the back end. If
you can identify that hot route and clamp it, and
the quarterback has to evade a free runner and make
a hasty decision, it's just not good to not have
(20:15):
your top target, you're available to you because of the
rotation after a blitz, right. I think that's what Johnson offers.
I think a player like him cannot only increase your
takeaway figure but help your sack numbers.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
He just creates splash plays.
Speaker 1 (20:30):
I might have flipped my cornerback rankings here back to
Johnson on top because he's a special, special prospect. It
is that position flexibility that kind of gets me hung up.
So really I'm happy with either one, and I think
I don't know, man, I think my final board, if
number thirteen looks like this, I'm not going to go
in order yet.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
Ah, this is tough.
Speaker 1 (20:50):
We'll do it later on the podcast, on a later
episode of the podcast too, But right now, the guys
I would draft at thirteen if they are there, and
a few of these names are going to be long gone,
especially my first right quarterback, cam Ward, I would take
him if he's there. He's not going to be there,
Tackle armand Membu is going to be a top ten pick.
Tyler Warren obviously, you guys know that. I guess this
kind of is an order actually, And then Will Johnson
(21:11):
and Jadea Baron are of neck and neck and then
I go tackle Josh Simmons. I think he's just a
great player. I think he's going to be gone though,
Kenneth Grant Mason Graham, the two defensive tackles will see
who's there who's not, could both be gone. And then
cornerback Savon Revel. I know that's going to be considered
a reach on him, but I think he's going to
be the best pressman cornerback in this class. And then
running back Ashton Gent. So those are my stick and
(21:32):
pick options. The guys I like in trade down options
are the two safeties Nick emn Worry and Malachi Starks,
Gray's abel Will Campbell, who's not going to be there
for a trade down, and defensive tackle Derek Harmon. I
will give you guys my full horizontal board for the
top five rounds on an episode next week. We're also
going to have Chris Greer's press conference availability covering that
(21:53):
for you guys. Next week, we'll have Kyle Krabs in
the podcast for two shows on Draft week. Plenty of
draft content coming your way, and with that in mind,
we're going to go ahead and close up the show
on the other side and talk about what a trade
down could look like, who are some of the top
candidates to do that and what could you fetch in
a return if you can move down the board. That's
next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to
(22:14):
you by autuntation. We are inside of two weeks from
draft day. Two weeks from today, you'll be getting ready
for Day two of the draft, which, man, being on
the West Coast when it was at four o'clock was
pretty nice. These seven o'clock draft start times is it's
pretty rough, but hey, you know, late nights every once
(22:37):
in a while not too bad. Let's go ahead and
close with this today because we spent a lot of
time in the last couple of weeks really hammering down
some of the options at pick thirteen.
Speaker 2 (22:46):
And this is sort of the beauty of pre draft work.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
I think a lot of people look at this like
it might be I don't know, I guess a waste
of time from a content standpoint, but I view it
in the prism of this isn't work for today's reward,
but it'll come up at some point down the road,
and maybe that down the road payoff is in four
years when these guys hit free agency. And you have
a baseline understanding of where their game was as a
(23:11):
rookie at age twenty one versus where it is for
a second contract time at age twenty five. But also
perhaps it helps you get an idea for how the
draft might play out. These are things that the Dolphins
brass will be doing NonStop for the next couple of weeks.
The multitude of scenarios. Let's say the board breaks, you know,
ab cd ef all the way through Z, and then
(23:33):
through each of those twenty six permutations. Let's throw a
monkey wrench into each one, like somebody trades from position
Y to position X, and now we have permutation A
two B two C two and on and on and on.
And by doing that you kind of get a sense
for where certain suite spots exist. Like I know, we
all get mock draft fatigue, believe me, nobody more than
(23:55):
I do. But the process of running those for weeks
and weeks is that with a big enough sample size,
you kind of begin to get a consensus and by
differentiating which spots are hot for certain positions and maybe
where you can wait a little bit. Again, biggest disclaimer
I can possibly convey all of this is guesswork, right,
I mean, the evaluation of it is sort of guesswork,
(24:17):
but at least you've got tangible evidence with this. Trying
to predict the draft game itself, you're making educated guesses
on correctly identifying the powerball numbers. You can't possibly forecast
exactly what other teams will do, at least not all
of them. You have your intel and your theories, but
it only takes one ranch for everything to change. Like
(24:38):
when Larry mctunzel has a picture of him in a
bong mask leak out? Was that twenty minutes before the draft?
Or when a team breaks the seal on a position group.
We get this run that happens every single year. It
happened last year. We were part of it. Remember how
Laatu Latu, Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Chop Robinson were
all on the board at pick fifteen. You go a
(25:00):
lot to at fifteen, Turner at seventeen, Verse at nineteen,
Chop at twenty one, from seventeen picks and no edges
taken to four picks or rather seven picks I should say,
and four edges taken. So in hindsight, if you could
have forecasted that, then perhaps the Saints who picked fourteenth
ahead of that run and took a very good player
and or Talis Fuaga.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Maybe they could have found a dance.
Speaker 1 (25:22):
Partner that would have wanted to get ahead of Indie, Minnesota,
US and the Rams to take their preferred edge, or
in the middle of that, right like Turner a lot too,
come off, Hey we have version chop out there. We
only have two remaining round one edges. We're gonna have
to pull the trigger and go right here. So with
that in mind, I wanted to look at the board,
and I kicked around how best to execute this, and
(25:43):
I think what I'll do is run a mock draft
and take the info they give us, But I want
to look at what's available, who's directly behind us, who
has motivation to potentially come up and come up with
what the board has available, and the rate to get
the deal done kind of makes you respect the chaos
of draft night a little bit more. Right, teams are
(26:04):
processing all these scenarios and have just ten minutes to
make their move, So let's go ahead and push start
on this mock draft. And of course you get bombarded
by trade offers immediately, like the Broncos are offering twenty
and fifty one to get to thirteen. The Bears are
offering thirty nine, forty one and seventy two to get
up to thirteen, and then the Patriots are offering thirty eight,
(26:25):
sixty nine, seventy seven, one oh six and a two
next year, and we have to send back thirteen and
one fifty. I mean, the Lions and Vikings did a
huge in division deal a couple of years ago for
Jamison Williams, so I never say never, I guess. But
the values of those trade offers are as follows to
give you an idea. The Broncos, that Round one difference
(26:45):
from thirteen to twenty is a loss of three hundred
points on the famed draft value chart, which I know
outdated and all that stuff. Yeah whatever, And the fifty
first pick is worth three hundred and ninety points, and
actually they ask for one point fifty back, which is
thirty one point four points. So we come out of
that up fifty eight point six points a win. If
(27:06):
you're just strictly going off the draft value chart. We'll
circle back to the Broncos. The Bears trade offer. They
want us to get out of the first round altogether,
which usually cost a pretty penny. So Pick thirteen is
worth eleven hundred and fifty points. Picks thirty nine, forty one,
and seventy two are worth five, ten, four, ninety and
two thirty, so a total of twelve thirty. So again
(27:28):
a deal that gives us more value of what that's
eighty additional points that we gained in that trade. The
Patriots of thirty eight, sixty nine, seventy seven, one oh six.
That's worth one thousand and fifty two points, just one
hundred point shy of the mark we have it picked
thirteen and the lowest number for a second round draft pick.
If the Patriots won the Super Bowl, and we know
(27:50):
that's not gonna freaking happen this year, and there was,
pick sixty four would be two hundred and seventy points,
so you're one seventy in the Plus, if they win
the super Bowl, it's probably gonna be more like a
top ten picks, so it's going to be even four
hundred points higher than that. So all these deals are
beneficial for the Fins, and quite frankly, if our division
rivals want to give us a top four top picks
(28:11):
or four picks in the top one oh six in
a class that's deeper than it is top heavy, and
give us a premium pick next year in a game
where it's a numbers game. Sign me up for that,
and for what it's worth. I'm a massive proponent, especially
this year of a trade down. I think if you
get this class up to twelve thirteen picks, you can
make a massive impact in terms of getting what you
(28:33):
need badly cheap contributors. Even if half those picks don't
work out, we get six or seven guys, that's gonna
be a phenomenal draft class, one of the best in
the league if you can do it. Our board has
Shadur Sanders, Teed McMillan, Kelvin Banks, Matthew Golden, Mike Green.
These are all premium position guys that are near the
(28:54):
top of the class, which to me is a great
potential move backboard with those wide receivers. The Broncos are
a good example.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
Well.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
I think they could be in search for a weapon,
whether it's a receiver or Ashton genty. They don't currently
have a proven workhorse back, and Sean Payton always had
those with the Saints, even if it was the two
man committee between Ingram and Kamara. I also think they
could use wide receiver help and maybe see Ted McMillan
or Matthew Golden, whoever their receiver one is. Maybe they
think that's a good spot to come up and get
(29:21):
that player. And that's gonna mean pick fifty one if
they do that, and that's a perfect spot to scoop
up another premium pick for a sliding back seven spots right.
And it also frees you up to go the safer route,
like example, what if it's Gray's Abel and you know
you've got a starting left guard or right guard, whatever
it's going to be for the next five years with him,
you can take a high floor player and at a top.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Fifty one pick.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
I like that strategy, especially in a class where it's
like fine starters, and Zabel's just an example. Other options exist,
but he is like one of these safest players in
the entire class to me, the North Dakota State guard
the Bears were a team that I was going to
mention because they have that pick at ten, But let's
say they go genty. Why not get that name on
GENTI and a lot of folks I think think that's
(30:04):
a potential pairing For the Bears, we saw them attack
the interior offensive line, but could probably still use a tackle,
and with three teams behind us that could go offensive tackle.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
Maybe Will Campbell slides.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Maybe they want to get up for Kelvin Banks and
you can recoup two top forty picks and some change.
That's also intriguing to me. The Patriots one, I can't buy.
I don't think they're in a position to sell off
five picks for one player. But just looking around the
rest of the first round, you try to look at
the needs of the teams right behind you, and maybe
this is a quarterback. Maybe it's Shedur Sanders, maybe it's
(30:35):
Jackson Dart I don't know. And you get the Steelers
to go up from twenty one to prevent anybody else
from going up and taking their guy. But you just
never know. And the quarterback is the best position to
have if you want to trade down. We learned that
back in twenty twenty one with Trey Lance and the
bountiful Treasure trow of that provided us. Here are the
biggest needs as listed by ESPN or maybe it's NFL
(30:56):
dot Com. For the teams directly behind us, the Colts
tight end, offensive line, linebacker, edge, running back, the Falcons edge,
defensive tackle, corner, O line and safety, the Cardinals O line, receiver, edge,
D line, corner, the Bengals edge, safety, backer, O line,
and corner. Notice the offensive line is in there for
all five of the all four of those teams.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
He usually is.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
Everybody needs offensive line help. But that's where I look
at the potential slide of a Will Campbell. Some think
he's a guard, which could absolutely push him out of
the top ten. But what if the Bengals have him
as a tackle and see a potential left tackle for
five years of cost control.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
Contract.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
You could slide back as they are moving up over
two teams that could also go offensive line, or a
team further back that wants to jump the entire run.
And look at Seattle, whose offensive line was atrocious a
year ago, doing large part to injuries, and they just
signed a quarterback who thrived behind a good system that
kept him upright compared to where he was a bust
in the league behind an offensive line that couldn't do
(31:56):
that With the Jets, right edge is in there for
everybody too. And I just listened to a Move the
Stix podcast that said that Mike Green has been attached
to the Falcons as much as any prospect to a
team outside of cam Ward, to the Titans, every one overall.
So maybe the Bengals are thinking about the future beyond
Trey Hendricks, who has voiced his desire for a new
contract for a couple of years. Or maybe the Lions
want to make a splash to pair somebody with Aiden
(32:17):
Hutchinson off the edge, as they kind of lost him
last year and couldn't get after the quarterback. And they
come all the way up from twenty eight. I think
that's where you look O line, edge, wide receiver need teams.
Perhaps one of the quarterback slides and there are dance
partners all over the back end of the first round
who maybe say, there's you know, thirteen really good prospects
in this year's class. Let's go make a push to
(32:38):
get one of those guys and add one of the
blue chippers to our roster, opposed to, you know, having
more picks for the starters, which is what we need
more of. So it's like a you know, I scratch
your back, you scratch mine.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
Well, Jules, the funny thing about my back is a
it's located on my.
Speaker 1 (32:52):
Who we like to have fun just for prosterity and
the issues in giggles, shits and giggles. I ran that mock,
taking the Patriots deal. It was too sweet to pass up.
And here's what I got. Defensive tackle ty Leek Williams
out of Ohio State, the best run defending defensive tackle
in the class, perhaps at thirty eight. At forty eight,
Jonah Savina, I think I'm saying that right. The Arizona
guard who looks like an absolute beast to me, my
(33:14):
future Trent McDuffie, Jacob Parrish out of Kansas State at
the cornerback, taking him a pick sixty nine. Nice at
seventy seven, I'm going to replace receiver, hopefully Kyle Williams
from Washington State.
Speaker 2 (33:24):
Go Koks bump.
Speaker 1 (33:26):
And then it picked ninety eight safety Laithan Ransom out
of Ohio State, and it picked one oh six defensive
tackle CJ.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
West out of Indiana.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
Then I'd probably go with Jackson Hawes and Jalen Conyers,
the Texas Tech and Georgia Tech tight ends, double dip
on them later on, maybe find a running back at
some point on Day three. All of that and the
premium pick next year, not too bad. See, these scenarios
are fun to talk there. We're not gonna get a
pick from the Patriots, but it's fun to talk about it.
And we'll do plenty more of that here on the
podcast in the next two weeks. Here getting you ready
(33:53):
for the NFL Draft. In the meantime, that is going
to be my time. You all, please be sure subscribe, rate,
review the show on wherever you get your podcasts. Go
ahead and follow me on social at Winkle NFL. The
team at Miami Dolphins. Check out the fish Tank podcast
with Seth and Juice, the YouTube channel for Dolphins, HQ,
Media availabilities, and so much more. Last, but not least,
Miami Dolphins dot Com. Until next time, Finns up call
(34:15):
on Cameron.
Speaker 2 (34:16):
Daddy just come home.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!